Week 8 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, here we are at Week 8, more than half way done with the regular season. There's been a handful of huge games, but it seems that most of the big conference tilts are still ahead of us. Last week was 8-7, which brings the year-long total to 48-42-3 (.5333). It'd be nice to have a good week this week.

I'm typically bored by playoff talk at this point in the season, but there's a couple interesting things about the way things have shaken out so far. If this has already been discussed somewhere else on the board, I apologize, but I think there's a pretty good chance that either the Big Ten or the SEC could potentially be left out of the playoff this year. In the SEC's case, if the SEC West champ beats Georgia(let's assume Alabama for argument's sake), Georgia will have beaten practically nobody on the season, with probably Tennessee (maybe Missouri?)representing it's best win. Assuming Washington wins out, or even Oregon does so, along with either Florida State or North Carolina going undefeated, that makes it tough for the SEC winner to make a case, especially if one of the Big Ten schools wins out. Either Texas or Oklahoma looks like a lock to be in, and both would get in over a one loss SEC champ. If all 3 Big Ten teams beat each other, they better hope there is some chaos because they aren't getting in over those other schools either, given their non-conference schedules and how bad the rest of the Big Ten is. I guess we'll see what happens, but I would not have thought that one of those two conferences could be shut out of the party. On to the week. I found it to be a challenging card. Lots of teams that don't have much to like about them that are playing each other. I can identify a lot of teams that I'm interested in fading, but a lot of their opponents have almost no redeeming qualities themselves.

Navy +10 LOSS
Ohio State -4.5 WIN
Boston College +6 WIN
UCF +17.5 WIN
Wisconsin -2.5 WIN
E Michigan +12 WIN
Alabama -9 WIN
Fla Atlantic +3 LOSS
West Virginia -3 LOSS
Old Dominion +5.5 WIN
Colorado State +7 WIN
Michigan -25 WIN

9-3

1. @Navy +10 v Air Force: It's always a sound play to take any significant dog in a service academy game, but this year, there's a some fundamental reasons to favor the Navy side as well. As for the situational numbers, the home team in the series has covered in 9 of the last 10 years. Also, Navy is 12-3 in their last 15 against Air Force when they've been an underdog. I was scarred and honestly offended by the effort Navy put forth in the opener in Ireland against Notre Dame, and I purposely avoided them, but I've recovered in time to back them in what has always been an advantageous spot for them. This year, Air Force has also thrown the ball very well with QB Zach Larrier providing a steady influence when they aren't abusing hapless foes with the run game. Larrier, however, got hurt last week against Wyoming, so they'll likely be sticking to the option while the backup is in there. This is great news for Navy because they can't stop anyone's pass game, and if these service academies have proven anything to us, it's that they typically know what they're doing as it relates to stopping each others' option game. Also, Navy FB Alex Tezca has been outstanding over the past few weeks, averaging 8 yards per carry. We know how important that is to the wishbone, and Air Force has actually struggled in some of their advanced metrics as it relates to run defense (stop rate, etc) and that's against some pretty pedestrian run attacks. I think Navy will be relying on Tecza more than normal as both of the QBs they've used primarily are likely to be out this week, so both teams will be handicapped in that regard. Navy will probably use Braxton Woodson, who looked ok when he was forced in there last week, but they also still have Xavier Arline on the roster who has played quite a bit at QB in the past, and Tai Lavatai hasn't been completely ruled out yet. Air Force has been great this year, but this will be a game with limited possessions, so a healthy amount of points is certainly valuable in a game like this.

I was hoping AF would get the first down late because I wanted no part of Navy getting the ball back in passing situations when a pick 6 beats me. And it did. Not gonna complain much because I bet on a team that had 44 total yards well into the 4th quarter.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I found it to be a challenging card. Lots of teams that don't have much to like about them that are playing each other. I can identify a lot of teams that I'm interested in fading, but a lot of their opponents have almost no redeeming qualities themselves.
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It is always a better week when your thread appears. I am sure evryone agrees. We thank you again. Best of fortune this week.

I certainly understand if you do not have the time, but perhaps you can identify/list the teams you are interested in fading? It would be of interest.

Either way, this thread is a real value...it's free. Thank you
 
Thanks Bones for the kind words. Well, I'll start with Minnesota and Iowa. LOL. I should also say that "no redeeming qualities" is a bit of an exaggeration. For example, I'm very interested in fading Miami this week, but Clemson's pass offense is hard to trust to exploit them. Clemson has redeeming qualities, just not the ones I need this week. Some others, although you might see me pull the trigger on some of them anyway.

Wake (Pitt is hard to trust)
Cincinnati (Baylor not much better)
Nebraska(NW plays the role of punching bag very well)

Those are a few....
 
2. @Ohio State -4.5 v Penn State: These are two coaches that I have no use for, so the good news is one of them has to lose. Based on past experience, I'm betting that's Franklin, first because he seldom wins games like this, and 2, because I could never be that lucky to see Ryan Day lose this game and have the full fury of the Scarlet and Gray skeptics 12 inches up his ass. In all seriousness, a spread this light for Ohio State in the Horseshow against anybody but recent vintage Michigan is very good value. I think both offenses are going to have a hard time, but I think it's more likely that Ohio State figures things out offensively in this game than the Nittany Lions. Penn State's defense has undoubtedly been good, but the best offense they've faced is either UMass or Illinois. The other 3 FBS teams they've played are ranked 126th, 122nd and 108th in yards per play. Illinois, who they played on the road, actually threw for 297 yards in that game. Let's just say that you can make a case that an offense on Ohio State's level, even with a still shaky Kyle McCord pushing the buttons, is a major upgrade over what they've faced. On the other side, we have the Ohio State defense, which is a close second in most categories to Penn State on the defensive side. They are ranked 2nd in yards per play against (PSU is #1), 18th in yards per rushing attempt(PSU #2) and #3 in yards per pass attempt(PSU +1 again), so they are no slouches themselves, and they've played a much better group of offenses, including Notre Dame and Maryland. As for the Penn State offense, I don't know if Franklin is sandbagging or something is happening with Drew Allar's arm, but they DO NOT throw the ball downfield. Out of 153 QBs, Allar ranks 153rd(i.e. last) in % of attempts over 20 yards. Playing football in a phone booth is not a good idea against Ohio State on the road, especially when you haven't been able to run the ball, which Penn State has not despite having 2 very skilled running backs in Singleton and Allen. Their line was a question mark coming into the season, and at least in terms of paving a path for those guys, it's a question that still hasn't been answered. It's hard to fathom how Nick Singleton can average less than 4 yards a carry, but here we are. Even against Delaware, he was 12 for 47. I don't suspect they'll just figure it out and blow the Buckeyes off the ball, and if they don't Allar will have to do something he hasn't even tried to do yet this year in order to have success. All that leads me to Franklin's success in wining big games. Since he's been at Penn State, he's been good at playing the bully, but he really hasn't beaten anyone that we could consider an elite team . In the last 5 years he's played 12 teams ranked in the top 13, and he's gone 1-11 straight up, and that includes 3 outright losses as a favorite. Only twice did he cover any of those games when he was less than a double digit dog, and one was at home while the other was at a Wisconsin team that had Graham Mertz tossing picks to them.(That was the one win). Basically, Franklin has proven he doesn't win these games, and when the spread is this low, it hasn't been enough points for him to get to the window. If he handles his business here I'll tip my cap to him, but his significant history in games like this suggests he won't.

Both teams stunk, but one thing I'll say about OSU: The expect to win, and they make it happen.
 
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By the way, if you check out Spottie's thread, he addressed the "Penn State is bad against great teams" angle with a lot more concrete numbers than my manual fingers and toes method. Now that I've read that, I could have saved myself a lot of time. I have a hard time following it unless he explains it like I'm a 2nd grader, but it's there if you can grasp it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks Bones for the kind words. Well, I'll start with Minnesota and Iowa. LOL. I should also say that "no redeeming qualities" is a bit of an exaggeration. For example, I'm very interested in fading Miami this week, but Clemson's pass offense is hard to trust to exploit them. Clemson has redeeming qualities, just not the ones I need this week. Some others, although you might see me pull the trigger on some of them anyway.

Wake (Pitt is hard to trust)
Cincinnati (Baylor not much better)
Nebraska(NW plays the role of punching bag very well)

Those are a few....
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wondering if wisconsin/illinois fits this profile........did illinois go full on okie state or iowa state and make changeups in the scheme ? cause if not i think that's just a 1 game blip and this line is an overreaction
 
EL CAPO said:
wondering if wisconsin/illinois fits this profile........did illinois go full on okie state or iowa state and make changeups in the scheme ? cause if not i think that's just a 1 game blip and this line is an overreaction
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It kind of does, but you'll see something on that in bit. :)
 
3. Boston College +6(-116) @Georgia Tech: If you read this thread you've probably noticed that I do pay attention to trends. They aren't the end all be all, but some teams perform well in some roles and terribly in others. Most teams are a coin flip one way or another, but there are some teams that clearly perform better as favorites/underdogs, at home/on the road, etc. Sometimes teams are so bad in certain roles that it almost seems like some sort of cosmic intervention. We've actually got a couple of those this week. The first is Georgia Tech as a favorite. GT has actually been a pretty good dog, especially under Brent Key, but as a favorite, oh Lordy. They are 1-11 ATS overall as a favorite since Paul Johnson retired as head coach after the 2018 season. They are 1-9 ATS as a home favorite. Some of the losses have been unconscionable. We all remember their outright 11 point loss a few weeks ago to what we thought was a corpse in Bowling Green as a 21 point favorite, which they naturally followed up with an outright win(albeit with a heavy assist by Mario Cristobal) the next week. During this stretch, they've also lost outright as a 26 point favorite to the Citadel, lost at Syracuse by 17 as a 7 point favorite, lost outright at home to Northern Illinois as a 19 point favorite, lost at home outright last year to Tony Elliott's Virginia outfit, and last but not least, they were the only ATS win for Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes last year when they lost outright as a slight favorite to Miami by 21. They come into this one as a 5.5-6 point favorite against a 3-3 BC team that like the Yellowjackets is coming off a bye. BC comes in having won a couple in a row. When you line these teams up on paper, they are pretty evenly matched. Both offenses have the edge over the defenses, but it's more profound on the BC side. BC should have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and BC QB Thomas Castellanos presents a unique challenge with his ability to run the ball while still having been competent against some pretty solid defenses. BC struggles in pass coverage, but I would make them a slight favorite on a neutral field. Throw in GT's complete inability to function as a favorite and you don't have to ask me twice to take the points.

GT obliged and did what they do at home.
 
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4. UCF +17.5(-115) @Oklahoma: Although Oklahoma is undefeated against the spread and had a great win last time out against what looks like an elite Texas team, this is still too many points in my opinion. OU is coming off a big win in one of the most fun to watch games of the year and they've also rewarded bettors with a cashed ticket or a push every week. As a result their lines are inflated, and we are also getting UCF at their lowest point, giving us some line value. The Knights got their doors blown off at Kansas last time out, so the most recent memory is a terrible effort. This is the dictionary definition of "top of the market" vs "bottom of the market". UCF is coming off a bye, so it's allowed them to get healthy, most importantly John Rhys Plumlee who is now pretty much ready to go and set to relieve Timmy McClain of his losing. Plumlee has had some INTs, but he's averaging 9 yards per rush as well as almost 10 yards per pass attempt. UCF still leads the country in rushing yards per attempt and is 4th in yards per play overall. Both of Plumlee's top 2 receivers average 20 yards per reception, and RB RJ Harvey is at that number as well. Defensively, they can't stop the run, but that isn't typically Oklahoma's forte, and UCF's strength is against the pass, ranking 36th in yards per pass attempt against. Again, this is a buy-low play, and I think the Knights might be able to catch the Sooners napping in a sleepy 11AM local start. I grabbed this at 19.5 a couple days ago, but I still like it 17 or above.

Rocking chair game as far as the spread. Not sure UCF can win the way things are going for them. They can cover big spreads though. Always a good idea to play big dogs who can run it.
 
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5. @Wisconsin -2.5(-120) @Illinois: This line was readily available at 2.5 most of the week, but it's steaming up now. I'd be fine at 3 as well but better if you can get it to 2.5. I am by no means planning on making a habit of backing Wisconsin, but I think the matchup is a good one for them here. Illinois had a surprisingly solid performance last week at Maryland and they deserved to win, but they were in a double digit dog spot that Bielema has thrived in. Wisconsin also will be missing starting QB Tanner Mordecai, but he has not really contributed to their success anyway. Wisconsin is favored here because they're likely to be able to run it on Illinois, and the Illini have little chance to move the ball or score effectively on this Badger defense which has looked very good most of the year under Mike Tressel. Luke Altmyer is gaining experience, but he has no time to make his reads and it leads to mistakes that Wisconsin typically benefits greatly from. About the only area that Illinois has the edge in this game is their pass defense against the pass offense. That would have been the case with or without Mordecai, and the fact that Mordecai won't be there doesn't help Illinois run the ball effectively or protect the QB. It's also going to be a wind game in Champaign tomorrow, and the set up of the stadium leads to exaggerated wind effects whenever the wind blows there. You would think that the intricacies of the home stadium would be a benefit for the Illini, but it's the home team that usually gets flummoxed by the win there for whatever reason. 2 weeks ago Nebraska recovered a de facto onsides kick when Illinois couldn't gauge the wind, leading to a quick turnover/TD that completely changed the game. Last year Illinois was upset as a 16 point favorite at home by Michigan State largely because they couldn't deal with the wind. If Illinois wins in this one it will completely turn around their season, but I think this team has already been defined as an unrelaible group that finds ways to make things hard on themselves. Wisconsin has lost only twice in their last 9 trips to Champaign, and although I am not confident Braedyn Locke will have much success, I don't think he'll need to. Who needs to be able to pass to win in the Big Ten West?

Illini found a way to lose, but there were some bad calls in this one that really hurt them.
 
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6. Eastern Michigan +12 @Northern Illinois: Here's another example of a cosmic level failure to cover in a home favorite role. Since 2021, despite being almost automatic as a road dog, NIU is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite, and just like Georgia Tech, their home favorite performance is downright baffling. This is typically a pretty good team we're talking about! During that period they've lost outright to FCS Southern Illinois, won by only 7 as a 35 point favorite against FCS Eastern Illinois. Lost by 13 as a 6.5 point favorite against Central Michigan, lost 44-12 as a 10 point favorite to AKRON, getting outgained by 250 yards in the process in the Zips only FBS win of the year last year, and then lost outright at home to a terrible Tulsa team in their first road game under a new coaching regime. Now EMU comes in a week after NIU knocked off Ohio in DeKalb(AS A DOG....big difference). If previous history is a guide, NIU is ripe to lay a complete egg, and this EMU team, although helpless on offense, has some factors on defense to do it. They have a big edge over the NIU offense in the passing game, and they've been very good on 3rd down. HC Chris Creighton has always been money as a road dog(12-6 since 2019), so I think all the evidence is there to indicate that in this scenario, it's highly likely that the Eagles will cover a double digit spread here.

I'll comment on the EMU offense by saying the defense was good. EMU D gave us this cover.
 
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7. @Alabama -9 v Tennessee: It's hard to fathom just how different this Tennessee team is compared to last year's edition. This year's team is reliant on a very stingy defense and an effective and somewhat relentless running game, while last year's team was completely dependent on Hendon Hooker's ability to complete deep shots to his deep crop of wide receivers. This year, Tennessee couldn't complete a pass over 20 yards if their lives depended on it, that is, unless they subbed in the backup QB. Joe Milton can't complete passes down the field, and that makes this Tennessee offense a great fir for the Alabama defense. Bama's D will stop the run and they'll be able to pressure Milton enough to where he won't hold the ball long enough for receivers to get downfield. Alabama's offense will have similar issues, but Jalen Milroe is elite at throwing the deep ball, making it practically inevitable that he'll connect on a couple of his deep throws. If Tennessee is going to cover this, they'll have to hold Bama to somewhere around 21 points because I have a hard time seeing how they'll be able to score given their lack of explosiveness down the field in the pass game. Milton has completed only 8 of 35 throws of more than 20 yards, so their ability to get chunk yards through the pass game is compromised, and Bama hasn't given up much of anything via the ground game. Also don't forget that Saban and Alabama are still smarting from that season crushing loss to the Vols last year, so they'll be at full attention for this one.

Took awhile, but the Tide showed up in the second half. Total domination from that point on.
 
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8. @FAU +3(-116) v UTSA: I faded UTSA last week and they covered, but I'm going against them again this week. This is not so much a fade of the Roadrunners as it is an acknowledgement that the Owls are really starting to get things together under Tom Herman. I was high on FAU coming in, but they started the season completely out of synch offensively, and QB Casey Thompson struggled mightily out of the gate. After his injury they weren't much better under CMU transfer Daniel Richardson at first, but they played well at Illinois, and then rattled off 2 nice wins in a row, including a 56 point explosion at USF last week. They were injury riddled earlier, but now have RB Larry McCammon back and nobody has been able to stop LaJohntay Wester at receiver. Wester has 62 catches for 620 yards and even though the defense knows the ball is coming to him, they can't stop it. UTSA was able to dispatch of UAB last week, but that game was a statistical standstill and finished the way it did mostly due to turnovers. FAU in addition to improving on offense has been very solid in several areas this year. First, PFF has the Owls graded out as the 8th best run defense and grades them 18th in tackling. I think Herman has them on the come, and this is definitely not the same team that's we've been accustomed to on the UTSA side.

437-162 in total yards. Herman back to ineptitude on offense after a brief flirtation with competence. Roadrunners showing me who's boss 2 weeks in a row. Wrong side 10 out of 10 times here.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. @Alabama -9 v Tennessee: It's hard to fathom just how different this Tennessee team is compared to last year's edition. This year's team is reliant on a very stingy defense and an effective and somewhat relentless running game, while last year's team was completely dependent on Hendon Hooker's ability to complete deep shots to his deep crop of wide receivers. This year, Tennessee couldn't complete a pass over 20 yards if their lives depended on it, that is, unless they subbed in the backup QB. Joe Milton can't complete passes down the field, and that makes this Tennessee offense a great fir for the Alabama defense. Bama's D will stop the run and they'll be able to pressure Milton enough to where he won't hold the ball long enough for receivers to get downfield. Alabama's offense will have similar issues, but Jalen Milroe is elite at throwing the deep ball, making it practically inevitable that he'll connect on a couple of his deep throws. If Tennessee is going to cover this, they'll have to hold Bama to somewhere around 21 points because I have a hard time seeing how they'll be able to score given their lack of explosiveness down the field in the pass game. Milton has completed only 8 of 35 throws of more than 20 yards, so their ability to get chunk yards through the pass game is compromised, and Bama hasn't given up much of anything via the ground game. Also don't forget that Saban and Alabama are still smarting from that season crushing loss to the Vols last year, so they'll be at full attention for this one.
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Totally agree on this one, I’d expect neither team has much success trying to have long sustained drives for points attempting to run the ball against either these defenses. The absolute difference Milroe and bama wrs ability to hit shot plays while milton can’t hit a barn!! I like Vols team total under 18.5 as well, not super thrilled lying more than a td in a game I think both defenses mostly dictate so I like this option as well,, thing is I do think bama can get us 24-27 ish, maybe more if they let Milton throw and he turns it over!, don’t think vols scoring more than 14ish. Prob not 2 tds, more likely only 1 td and they kick 2-3 fgs, can’t see them having red zone success as Milton in tight spaces isn’t gonna work! I don’t really think bama will have tons of success running the ball far as ypc but they just need rush attempts to wear down the vols pass rush + give them chances for the deep shots on unexpected downs!!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Ohio State -4.5 v Penn State: These are two coaches that I have no use for, so the good news is one of them has to lose. Based on past experience, I'm betting that's Franklin, first because he seldom wins games like this, and 2, because I could never be that lucky to see Ryan Day lose this game and have the full fury of the Scarlet and Gray skeptics 12 inches up his ass. In all seriousness, a spread this light for Ohio State in the Horseshow against anybody but recent vintage Michigan is very good value. I think both offenses are going to have a hard time, but I think it's more likely that Ohio State figures things out offensively in this game than the Nittany Lions. Penn State's defense has undoubtedly been good, but the best offense they've faced is either UMass or Illinois. The other 3 FBS teams they've played are ranked 126th, 122nd and 108th in yards per play. Illinois, who they played on the road, actually threw for 297 yards in that game. Let's just say that you can make a case that an offense on Ohio State's level, even with a still shaky Kyle McCord pushing the buttons, is a major upgrade over what they've faced. On the other side, we have the Ohio State defense, which is a close second in most categories to Penn State on the defensive side. They are ranked 2nd in yards per play against (PSU is #1), 18th in yards per rushing attempt(PSU #2) and #3 in yards per pass attempt(PSU +1 again), so they are no slouches themselves, and they've played a much better group of offenses, including Notre Dame and Maryland. As for the Penn State offense, I don't know if Franklin is sandbagging or something is happening with Drew Allar's arm, but they DO NOT throw the ball downfield. Out of 153 QBs, Allar ranks 153rd(i.e. last) in % of attempts over 20 yards. Playing football in a phone booth is not a good idea against Ohio State on the road, especially when you haven't been able to run the ball, which Penn State has not despite having 2 very skilled running backs in Singleton and Allen. Their line was a question mark coming into the season, and at least in terms of paving a path for those guys, it's a question that still hasn't been answered. It's hard to fathom how Nick Singleton can average less than 4 yards a carry, but here we are. Even against Delaware, he was 12 for 47. I don't suspect they'll just figure it out and blow the Buckeyes off the ball, and if they don't Allar will have to do something he hasn't even tried to do yet this year in order to have success. All that leads me to Franklin's success in wining big games. Since he's been at Penn State, he's been good at playing the bully, but he really hasn't beaten anyone that we could consider an elite team . In the last 5 years he's played 12 teams ranked in the top 13, and he's gone 1-11 straight up, and that includes 3 outright losses as a favorite. Only twice did he cover any of those games when he was less than a double digit dog, and one was at home while the other was at a Wisconsin team that had Graham Mertz tossing picks to them.(That was the one win). Basically, Franklin has proven he doesn't win these games, and when the spread is this low, it hasn't been enough points for him to get to the window. If he handles his business here I'll tip my cap to him, but his significant history in games like this suggests he won't.
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I been leaning to taking the points most the week (or under what I really liked but have lost the chance to bet the good numbers on that),,mostly because I think the defenses are the strength of both teams, naturally points far more tempting when I expect they hard to come by on the field. I do think psu d is very good even tho it a fair point they havnt really been tested, def easier to trust osu d is legit very good. I think you have kinda swayed me here, I wasn’t incredibly confident in the idea of betting psu to begin with. It doesn’t seem all that different than the bama/vols cap in that I think it be really tough for both teams to drive the field for scores and osu certainly appears more capable when it comes to hitting shot plays. Psu has only 1 play over 40 yards all year I believe? The qb has only thrown 8 passes longer than 20?!??! Only completed 3 of those?!?! Osu has adjusted their d a bit this year and toned down on the blitzing, I assume that was directly in response to some the explosive plays teams were hitting on them late last year., this year they not giving up those explosives, psu doesn’t hit them, when you have such good defenses on the field you almost have to hit some chunk plays if you gonna score points, Ok yea, im convinced it osu or nothing here.,
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. @Wisconsin -2.5(-120) @Illinois: This line was readily available at 2.5 most of the week, but it's steaming up now. I'd be fine at 3 as well but better if you can get it to 2.5. I am by no means planning on making a habit of backing Wisconsin, but I think the matchup is a good one for them here. Illinois had a surprisingly solid performance last week at Maryland and they deserved to win, but they were in a double digit dog spot that Bielema has thrived in. Wisconsin also will be missing starting QB Tanner Mordecai, but he has not really contributed to their success anyway. Wisconsin is favored here because they're likely to be able to run it on Illinois, and the Illini have little chance to move the ball or score effectively on this Badger defense which has looked very good most of the year under Mike Tressel. Luke Altmyer is gaining experience, but he has no time to make his reads and it leads to mistakes that Wisconsin typically benefits greatly from. About the only area that Illinois has the edge in this game is their pass defense against the pass offense. That would have been the case with or without Mordecai, and the fact that Mordecai won't be there doesn't help Illinois run the ball effectively or protect the QB. It's also going to be a wind game in Champaign tomorrow, and the set up of the stadium leads to exaggerated wind effects whenever the wind blows there. You would think that the intricacies of the home stadium would be a benefit for the Illini, but it's the home team that usually gets flummoxed by the win there for whatever reason. 2 weeks ago Nebraska recovered a de facto onsides kick when Illinois couldn't gauge the wind, leading to a quick turnover/TD that completely changed the game. Last year Illinois was upset as a 16 point favorite at home by Michigan State largely because they couldn't deal with the wind. If Illinois wins in this one it will completely turn around their season, but I think this team has already been defined as an unrelaible group that finds ways to make things hard on themselves. Wisconsin has lost only twice in their last 9 trips to Champaign, and although I am not confident Braedyn Locke will have much success, I don't think he'll need to. Who needs to be able to pass to win in the Big Ten West?
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Great stuff, and I know you know your Illini.

Interesting stuff about the wind.
 
2daBank said:
I been leaning to taking the points most the week (or under what I really liked but have lost the chance to bet the good numbers on that),,mostly because I think the defenses are the strength of both teams, naturally points far more tempting when I expect they hard to come by on the field. I do think psu d is very good even tho it a fair point they havnt really been tested, def easier to trust osu d is legit very good. I think you have kinda swayed me here, I wasn’t incredibly confident in the idea of betting psu to begin with. It doesn’t seem all that different than the bama/vols cap in that I think it be really tough for both teams to drive the field for scores and osu certainly appears more capable when it comes to hitting shot plays. Psu has only 1 play over 40 yards all year I believe? The qb has only thrown 8 passes longer than 20?!??! Only completed 3 of those?!?! Osu has adjusted their d a bit this year and toned down on the blitzing, I assume that was directly in response to some the explosive plays teams were hitting on them late last year., this year they not giving up those explosives, psu doesn’t hit them, when you have such good defenses on the field you almost have to hit some chunk plays if you gonna score points, Ok yea, im convinced it osu or nothing here.,
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LOL. One thing I've thought about: I wouldn't put it past Franklin to have sandbagged the whole year just waiting for this game. He might even have a kid he hasn't suited up all year that has burned their defense every day in practice that he sends deep and Allar tosses a beautiful ball that nobody knew he had in him.
 
B.A.R. said:
Great stuff, and I know you know your Illini.

Interesting stuff about the wind.
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If they win this week I'll be ecstatic, and maybe I'll be convinced. But there's too many issues with them that I don't believe were fixed in one week and I've seen this movie before.
 
9. @West Virginia -3 v Oklahoma State: Sorry we're a little out of chronological order here. Admittedly when I first started handicapping this game, I was looking at it only from the perspective of taking the dog, but the more I looked at it, I started to see some value on West Virginia. The Mountaineers are coming off a terrible game in which they played poorly at Houston and ended up losing on a Hail Mary. They are pissed off now because they should be 5-1, and they've played with a chip on their shoulder all year long after they were picked for last in the Big 12. Neal brown has made a point to talk about it all year long, so it's something that motivates them. Now Oklahoma State comes in as a short dog off 2 emotional home dog wins against Kansas and Kansas State. After looking shaky offensively early in the season, Gundy has settled on the 37 year old Alan Bowman and the Cowboys have responded pretty well as a result. This will be a big departure for the Pokes though, switching roles from comfortable home dog to back on the road, and although Gundy has a great rep over the years as a dog, they've failed to cover 4 straight as a road dog, including a 7 point loss at an Iowa State team who previously couldn't get out of their own way. Oklahoma State has not been impressive defensively, ranking 65th or worse in every defensive category, and West Virginia resembles Iowa State offensively, and are probably a step up from a cyclone offense that piled up 348 passing yards and their highest total yards output of the year by far against the Cowboys. I like the spot for West Virginia here as they need this game in a major way and Okie State is coming in off a couple of emotional wins, and I don't know that I trust Alan Bowman in a tough environment like this. His back will act up, or he'll have some pain in his feet or some other ailment that befalls an older gentleman.

Who the hell is this Ollie Gordon character? 28 points in the 4th quarter for the Pokes. I guess the offense is re-animated?
 
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Br@ssknux said:
LOL. One thing I've thought about: I wouldn't put it past Franklin to have sandbagged the whole year just waiting for this game. He might even have a kid he hasn't suited up all year that has burned their defense every day in practice that he sends deep and Allar tosses a beautiful ball that nobody knew he had in him.
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Given Franklin track record wouidnt the more likely outcome be the kid burns past the entire defense play after play but every ball bounces off his hands!!

I think I heard they were getting a wr back they been without who supposed to be the top taker offer guy (surely there was better way to say that! Lol). That said the fact osu has kinda toned down from the ultra aggressive defensive play caller I’ve always known Knowles to be and blitzing far less now, I assume they did this to limit big plays and has seemed to work, granted they havnt played a bunch of explosive teams but pen st certainly doesn’t fall into that category either.
 
10. @Old Dominion +5.5 v Appalachian State: Back on the train with the Monarchs here. Both of these teams are 3-3, and when you line them up by unit head to head, ODU looks like the better team until you look at each defense vs the offense in pressuring the QB. That's something on both sides of the ball that ODU will have to figure out, but other than that, ODU should be able to stop the Appy State rushing attack, and offensively, it looks like a major gulf between the ODU rushing attack and an Appy State run defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Overall, the ODU defense has been a pleasant surprise. They rank 37th in yards per play against and 15th against the run, and PFF grades them as the 12th best run defense and the 17th best tackling defense in the country. Appy State is 109th in yards per play, 125th against the run and below average on against the pass and on 3rd down. This is also by far Appy State's worst role, as they are 3-11 as a road favorite since 2020. They needed a 50+ yard field goal at the gun to beat La Mo earlier this year and got swept on the road outright in the Sun Belt, all 4 of them when favored including a loss as a 19 point favorite at a dreadful Texas State team that was just about to launch Jake Spavital. I've got the home, team, the better defense, and a road favorite that can't cover. Sounds good.

Two teams did what they do in this one. 221 rushing yards for the Monarchs.
 
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11. Colorado State +7 @UNLV: I always root for UNLV for whatever reason, and it's been fun to see them have a great start. They are off to a 5-1 start with their only loss being at Michigan in a game in which the cover was never really in question. They've also covered every other game this year which makes them 6-0 ATS on the season. That ATS mark is also inflating this line because Colorado State is easily the best team they've played since Michigan with the possible exception of Vanderbilt. UNLV's schedule is ranked 134th by Sagarin, and it's been filled by the dregs. Other than Michigan and Vandy, the Rebels have played Bryant, UTEP, Hawaii and Nevada. They've obviously taken care of business in those games(and how could they not?), but there's some alarming issues despite that schedule. UNLV ranks 125th in yards per pass attempt. Against that schedule! Nevada QB Brendon Lewis, who grades out 156th out of 157 qualifying QBs on PFF in their passing grades torched UNLV for 287 yards and 9.25 yards per attempt. Dalevon Campbell, an Illinois castoff who is famous in Champaign for having TWO potential TD passes bounce off his facemask had 3 catches for 93 yards and a score in that game. Colorado State has a future pro receiver in Tory Horton and 3 other receivers who have caught 20 balls, and although their defense isn't great, it's faced significantly better offenses than UNLV's has. I like UNLV and there are a lot of things to like about their team as they get to bowl eligibility soon under a solid coach in Barry Odom, but this is an inflated line against a step up in competition from what they're used to. I'm thinking this is the week where the 6-0 streak ends.

Almost an outright here. CSU didn't even play that well and almost pulled it off. Rams left too much time on the clock.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
9. @West Virginia -3 v Oklahoma State: Sorry we're a little out of chronological order here. Admittedly when I first started handicapping this game, I was looking at it only from the perspective of taking the dog, but the more I looked at it, I started to see some value on West Virginia. The Mountaineers are coming off a terrible game in which they played poorly at Houston and ended up losing on a Hail Mary. They are pissed off now because they should be 5-1, and they've played with a chip on their shoulder all year long after they were picked for last in the Big 12. Neal brown has made a point to talk about it all year long, so it's something that motivates them. Now Oklahoma State comes in as a short dog off 2 emotional home dog wins against Kansas and Kansas State. After looking shaky offensively early in the season, Gundy has settled on the 37 year old Alan Bowman and the Cowboys have responded pretty well as a result. This will be a big departure for the Pokes though, switching roles from comfortable home dog to back on the road, and although Gundy has a great rep over the years as a dog, they've failed to cover 4 straight as a road dog, including a 7 point loss at an Iowa State team who previously couldn't get out of their own way. Oklahoma State has not been impressive defensively, ranking 65th or worse in every defensive category, and West Virginia resembles Iowa State offensively, and are probably a step up from a cyclone offense that piled up 348 passing yards and their highest total yards output of the year by far against the Cowboys. I like the spot for West Virginia here as they need this game in a major way and Okie State is coming in off a couple of emotional wins, and I don't know that I trust Alan Bowman in a tough environment like this. His back will act up, or he'll have some pain in his feet or some other ailment that befalls an older gentleman.
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I was leaning this way....will join
 
12. Michigan -25 @Michigan State: I realize this is a square play, and I know Michigan has a dreadful record laying points in East Lansing, but I really feel strongly about this one. I've actually cashed tickets on MSU in this game probably 8-10 times in my life, so I know the history. I just can't forget what happened in this game last year. As a big favorite, Michigan pretty much plays with their food and dispatches the Spartans and fails to cover(in most cases) by a half point. As they leave the field, unbeknownst to them a couple of their players were attacked in the tunnel by a swarm of MSU players, with many of them hitting them with their helmets. I have absolutely no dog in that fight and no reason to have sympathy for Michigan, but it was so cowardly and low class that even I was pissed off after watching that. Imagine how Michigan feels, having watched that at a point when it was too late to retaliate? They've had a year to remember that, and for that whole year, there was nothing they could do about it. The players involved were disciplined, but this is their chance to get revenge for that, and what better place than in their stadium. MSU has probably gone from little brother to someone who pulled a cheap shot on them, and now they've got the skinny weakling cowering in front of them in a dark alley. My guess is there will be no quarter from Harbaugh here. Also, Michigan has show that they've woken up from their slumber in Big ten play, having destroyed three similar weaklings to Michigan State the past 3 games. Defensively, MSU has looked good the past two weeks, but against who? Iowa and Rutgers. When they played an elite offense they gave up 700+ and got outgained by 450 yards. I don't think Michigan has an offense as good as Washington's, but I think MSU is definitely capable of turtling in this game.

This was never in doubt. Glad I trusted myself here. Just an annihilation.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
9. @West Virginia -3 v Oklahoma State: Sorry we're a little out of chronological order here. Admittedly when I first started handicapping this game, I was looking at it only from the perspective of taking the dog, but the more I looked at it, I started to see some value on West Virginia. The Mountaineers are coming off a terrible game in which they played poorly at Houston and ended up losing on a Hail Mary. They are pissed off now because they should be 5-1, and they've played with a chip on their shoulder all year long after they were picked for last in the Big 12. Neal brown has made a point to talk about it all year long, so it's something that motivates them. Now Oklahoma State comes in as a short dog off 2 emotional home dog wins against Kansas and Kansas State. After looking shaky offensively early in the season, Gundy has settled on the 37 year old Alan Bowman and the Cowboys have responded pretty well as a result. This will be a big departure for the Pokes though, switching roles from comfortable home dog to back on the road, and although Gundy has a great rep over the years as a dog, they've failed to cover 4 straight as a road dog, including a 7 point loss at an Iowa State team who previously couldn't get out of their own way. Oklahoma State has not been impressive defensively, ranking 65th or worse in every defensive category, and West Virginia resembles Iowa State offensively, and are probably a step up from a cyclone offense that piled up 348 passing yards and their highest total yards output of the year by far against the Cowboys. I like the spot for West Virginia here as they need this game in a major way and Okie State is coming in off a couple of emotional wins, and I don't know that I trust Alan Bowman in a tough environment like this. His back will act up, or he'll have some pain in his feet or some other ailment that befalls an older gentleman.
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I said this after losing what I thought was gonna be a slam dunk rush prop for wvu qb greene last week. He looked well on his way to cashing then out of nowhere the kid starting throwing and connecting on bombs, pinpoint stuff in the 10-20’yard area, im
Not sure he knew he could throw like that but the more confidence he gained even his scrambles he was looking down field and throwing way more often than taking off which up until last game was always his second read!! I was a tad irate as my perfectly good bet went down the drain but it def left me thinking if a switch went off for this kid to where he making those kind of throws coupled with being way above average runner, don’t let him fool ya he is athletic! Seriously before last week it was look at the primary wr on play if he not open take off!! My did that change in a hurry!! Several times he could have, should have, woulda helped the team had he ran but I guess he was like a toddler figuring out his 1st word and just wanted to use it over and over!! Once or twice he made horrendous throws that shoulda easy been pick 6’s, one in particular he coulda ran 15+ and was so lucky the defender dropped it!!

Obviously I had to contemplate if this was somewhat a result of i can only assume is a crappy cougars pass d? While that didn’t hurt he was making throws into windows on time and in stride which doesn’t much matter the defense to see that. I also wonder if it was just like the day of his life? That happens, he just got in the zone and all a sudden he wasn’t himself and maybe he don’t even know how he got there!! Or it could be the light switch finally came on for him as this the 1st season he ever been allowed to get all this time playing qb in games! He only 5’10 but man if he plays like last week but settles down a tad, gets back to using his legs and arm wvu could be a team who ruins a season or 2!!! I’m really curious to see how he plays today., I def lean to playing them.

Gotta throw this part in, I was so pissed as I was losing his rush prop by like 5 yards he basically needed the entire 2nd half! After he scored with 10 or whatever seconds left and was beating his chest barking at crowd I was so mad over my bet!! Then the greatest thing happened and houston pulled off the Hail Mary and beat him!! I felt so much better!!! Lmao. If the little prick woulda just ran it one the many times he should have in 2nd half I cash and houston doesn’t have those 7 seconds!!! So we lost together!! Lol. I do think that loss could def be a motivating factor here,
 
Looks like Zac will be playing for AF.

He looked fine to me running off the field last week. Think coach pulled a fake on Navy.
 
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Reactions: KJ
Inspekdah said:
Looks like Zac will be playing for AF.

He looked fine to me running off the field last week. Think coach pulled a fake on Navy.
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Not a fan of double digit faves in Academy games but I think it's such a difference in talent. Guess I'm glad to have gotten 9.5, really won't be surprised if the crazy service game happens but hard to bet against AFA right now.

GL regardless Brass, just not on the same side in this one.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I was hoping for a FSU Dook write up

Spot on w/ Vols & Bama.
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I do have some thoughts on that Colt.

I think Duke is totally legit and FSU, in retrospect, has a body of work that has some flaws. When you match these teams up, I think Duke will be able to run it on the Noles and Duke's defense can absolutely give FSU trouble if they aren't sharp. Duke grades out second in coverage and 18th overall in PFF and they don't really have any questionable counting stats. The big question is whether Leonard will play, and the line indicates he will. If he does, I don;t like Duke as much because it's a night game and they'll get a interested FSU team. If he doesn't, the line goes up and FSU lets up as well. I'm not a huge fan of Belin but I think he can hit a shot or two and still run the running game for them. One last thing that bothers me for Duke is that they don't really need to win this game. Their loss is a non-con, so they can still win out and get to the ACC title game because they play Carolina head to head. If they get behind they can say, ok, let's regroup and get out of here. If Leonard is announced out(which I would do if I were Duke), I might take a shot at +17 or whatever it will go to, but at this number with a compromised Leonard, it's a pass for me.
 
KJ said:
Not a fan of double digit faves in Academy games but I think it's such a difference in talent. Guess I'm glad to have gotten 9.5, really won't be surprised if the crazy service game happens but hard to bet against AFA right now.

GL regardless Brass, just not on the same side in this one.
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I feel like it gotta almost always be dog or under with all of them, I don’t even bother capping anything like I do with regular games. The stupid qb injuries made total to fucjing low for me, like it matters who plays qb!! It tough to lay 10 with a 34 total! Lol. I just stayed away since I was way late and never had chance for the under 37.
 
2daBank said:
I feel like it gotta almost always be dog or under with all of them, I don’t even bother capping anything like I do with regular games. The stupid qb injuries made total to fucjing low for me, like it matters who plays qb!! It tough to lay 10 with a 34 total! Lol. I just stayed away since I was way late and never had chance for the under 37.
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AFA QB is a slinger, not the norm

Big fan
 
2daBank said:
I know but I still don’t care when it comes to these teams playing each other. You can put mahomes behind center im still playing under!
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I'm watching UFC so what do I know? Guess I know we have a big game tonight, still time to find a date and a couple tickets
 
Looks like I'm gonna stick with the 12 I have here. Some near misses:

I was really close to adding Mississippi State, but I thought I'd get a bump to over 7 when Rogers was out and I didn't.

Liked Baylor...wanted to fade Cincy while we still had a chance but I just didn't trust Baylor enough.

I just decided to ignore Iowa/Minnesota. The luckier team will probably cover that.

Now that Pitt is favored I should be hammering them, but I don't like the spot. Also, if I lost that, how many times would I have to see that thy stink and stop betting them? 7?

Utah State has been impressive on offense, so I liked the idea of them getting some points at SJSU, but there's a heavy difference in schedule strength and SJSU is probably favored for a reason

I had Texas Tech with major edges all over the field, but I don't trust them on the road against Sitake as a dog.

Coastal has some bad road favorite vibes, but Arky State's defense is so bad, they'd probably have to score 40 to cover

I talked about the Duke game above.

Wanted to fade USC, but Utah's offense. Still might do that if the line gets over 7 because there's a chance Williams has checked out for USC, or might if he gets knocked around.

LaLa's run offense too potent to pull the trigger on Georgia State, but the Panthers are a great road squad and are on a roll. That was probably the closest one for me. Last cut

Hope everyone has a great week!
 
Br@ssknux said:
If they win this week I'll be ecstatic, and maybe I'll be convinced. But there's too many issues with them that I don't believe were fixed in one week and I've seen this movie before.
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Nailed it here (along with almost everything early). Illinois found a way to lose this game, as you feared (the fan side of you; not the betting side).
 
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