After such a feast last week, I anticipate this week to be much narrower. I had my best week of the year last week, not because I'm good really, but because so many dogs covered. I had 23 ML dog candidates written down, 7 won. Figured it out on paper, still would've been positive 162.50 had I played all of them. That is what is great about these, you don't have to win many to be positive, but it's difficult to justify playing 23! Or maybe even half that many. And it is difficult to pick the right ones. I played 11, more than usual, and only hit 2, so I didn't pick all the right ones and lost net money on them, but the great ATS results on those teams saved me.
It was easy for me to like so many games last week the way the lines were, this week feels like 2 weeks ago, when I had my worst week of the year, so for me it feels like a be careful week.
A game vs A game I'll take Duke vs Miami.
I think at as high of odds as there are on BC they are worth a shot. Wake has been this good before and the ACC teams have had teams as bad as BC before and this spread is out of line historically for Wake to lay. WF only outgained Army by 81y but won by 35. WF only outgained FSU by 12y but won by 10. Clemson outgained them by 112, Liberty outgained them by 35y. Is Wake really 21 pt favorite good? No. Is BC really 21 pt dog bad, probably. BC is 2-4 and off the bye and WF humbled them last year at home 41-10. I would think this game is important for BC and they likely view UConn and Duke as winnable games, so I'd suspect they come out of the bye looking to right the ship, go on a winning streak, whether they can or not is to be determined.
It's already been touched on here or elsewhere, but definitely like ECU even though I know ECU can and does things that hurt their chances most games. Just don't feel like UCF is that good. When you watch all or parts of their games and see how they start and how they look at half time, they aren't that good really. To their credit they are usually better in the 2H. ECU coulda shoulda woulda beat them last year but they blew it. ECU is pretty good, they just don't always get the W, but maybe they find a way to not blow it this time.
Also mentioned in the discussion thread how good of a dog Liberty is. As has been mentioned by others, where might BYU's heads be at the moment? Off two noncovering and frankly unimpressive wins vs WYO and Utah State then lose huge statement game vs Notre Dame and then follow that up by getting embarrassed at home vs Arkansas. It seems to me that this BYU teams wants to take the big time games very seriously, and they just lost 2 back-to-back and travel to Liberty, who is 6-1, although I don't think BYU is going to be that "up" for them and even if they wanted to be, off the last two games they played, can they be? Now, Liberty is not the same team without QB Kaiden Salter and he has missed the last 2 and 3 of the last 4. I will not ML Liberty if he is not playing. He may be injured and maybe he can't be effective as he is when 100%. Not sure, need to find out what is up.
I'm not big on Toledo and they keep costing me money for doubting them, although I can come up with a "yeah but" for the last 3 I've lost on them, bottom line, they win and they cover. Not real sure I want to ML Buffalo, but Bulls have been surprisingly good.
I'm a sucker for Bowling Green as dogs too, and that hasn't gone all that bad in a lot of games. Central Michigan continues to be off. It's not a light switch, they have been off all year and the game vs Akron showed it too. If BG plays like they did last week they can and will win I believe. Problem is, if BG plays like they did 2 weeks ago, they can and will get blown out.
Another team that just can't put it together is Kent. They have been better than Central Michigan and definitly have a pretty high ceiling if they play to their potential, but they have yet to do that for more than 2 quarters, be that in the 1H, 2H and never for a full game yet. Akron is Akron, so you know. Rivalry game. Kent shut them out last year. Zips have the O to hang, but their D could really hurt them vs an O like Kent. Ohio D is very bad also, Kent had over 700y on them, but did not produce a lot of pts for them. I think I am actually talking myself out of an Akron ML as I type.
Lots of small numbers and the bigger ones are pretty ugly dogs. I don't know, feels a lot like 2 weeks ago and that makes me hesitant. I'll look through the second half later.
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