Week 7 ML Dogs

That’s a big number for Tulane to lay OTR….this is typically a let down game in the past

The defense has been stellar and the QBs have shown grit….still
 
ISU
GASO
UK

Looked hard at Nebraska but don't trust them. They lose so many close games. Looked hard at CU as well but don't trust them to put on their uniforms. They are 0-9 in last 9 ATS, not sure I can leap to ML on them again.
 
Alabama @ Tennessee: Not good news for UT backers....Josh Heupel is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS as a home dog at Tennessee. Nick Saban is 13-0 SU and 9-4 ATS as a road favorite coming off a home win in which he did not cover ATS by more than 5 points. I will say this though...if Bryce Young does not play then I don't think these trends will matter.

:popcorn:
 
Mississippi State @ Kentucky: What happens when an immovable object comes in contact with an unstoppable force? I was reminded of this saying while capping this game...here is what I mean...Mark Stoops is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as a home dog coming off a game in which his team did not cover ATS by more than 10pts and has worse turnover margin as his opponent. Meanwhile Mike Leach is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS as a rod fav coming off a game in which his team won ATS by more than 10pts and his team has a better turnover margin. I could go on...I found more trends that are similar between these two coaches...bottom line though is that it comes down to the opponent. Mark Stoops is 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS vs. Mississippi State at home...the only loss coming way back in 2014. Mike Leach is 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Kentucky...having won at home and lost on the road. Look for the Kentucky home crowd to give the Cats the edge Saturday and allow them to make the 1 play or two needed to win this game. Stoops said yesterday Levis has been practicing all week and has had no setbacks so my Cats are good to go. Pick: Kentucky ML
 
Uk my favorite dog this weekend (although I’ll prob have more bet on Rodriquez rushing props!). Messy st d has problems stopping the run even against teams who don’t present much of a passing threat, with Levis back he should be able to keep chains moving as the pound away and control the game w the rushing attack. Plus this is typical messy st time to lose, I like this team but anytime I get too high on them they shit the bed, this should def be that week. Between offense holding the ball I trust stoops will be able to keep the air raid from gaining much momentum.
 
Just played this one...4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:

Bowling Green Falcons +244
Virginia Tech Hokies +220
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +234
Michigan State Spartans +238
South Florida Bulls +370
Kentucky Wildcats +161
New Mexico State Aggies +216
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win ~$19,000.00

BOLTA!!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Just played this one...4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR:

Bowling Green Falcons +244
Virginia Tech Hokies +220
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +234
Michigan State Spartans +238
South Florida Bulls +370
Kentucky Wildcats +161
New Mexico State Aggies +216
Risked $64 ($1 per Parlay) to Win ~$19,000.00

BOLTA!!
Click to expand...
GL!
 
Put these in this week, RR 5,4,3 only.

KU +260
Illinois +220
tenn +260
rice +170
hawaii +200


BOLTA!

giphy.gif
 
As difficult as it was, I took a list of about 20 and narrowed it down to 10, I should probably further refine it.

Akron, Charlotte, UConn, Kent St, MTSU, NC St, Nebraska, Tennessee, USF, VT
 
s--k said:
As difficult as it was, I took a list of about 20 and narrowed it down to 10, I should probably further refine it.

Akron, Charlotte, UConn, Kent St, MTSU, NC St, Nebraska, Tennessee, USF, VT
Click to expand...
looks like I'm on same page with you with these 5.....I'm going to bet a 5-teamer RR and call it the JRock/S--K Special!!

:cheerleader:
 
oh shit...what's going on with NC State/Cuse game? MYBookie has locked out the game on their board.

:popcorn:
 
The JRock/S--K Special...a 3, 4, & 5-teamer RR with:

***Disclaimer - @s--k is not on my Cats...I just added them since NC State was not offered at my book.***

Kentucky Wildcats Winner +140
South Florida Bulls Winner +350
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +226
Kent State Golden Flashes +228
Virginia Tech Hokies +265
Risked $36.80 ($2.30 per Parlay) to Win $2,880.94

BOLTA!

:watchingsports:
 
I'm taking UK +pts. On the small lines, I'd just rather have more on the ATS since the payout isn't worth not having the pts in a close loss. I don't do the parlays, so it makes sense for me to just take the pts, but I hope they win.
 
JROCK1966 said:
The JRock/S--K Special...a 3, 4, & 5-teamer RR with:

***Disclaimer - @s--k is not on my Cats...I just added them since NC State was not offered at my book.***

Kentucky Wildcats Winner +140
South Florida Bulls Winner +350
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +226
Kent State Golden Flashes +228
Virginia Tech Hokies +265
Risked $36.80 ($2.30 per Parlay) to Win $2,880.94

BOLTA!

:watchingsports:
Click to expand...
Whelp.....it sure looked good up until the games started!

:rolleyes: :popcorn: :oops:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Whelp.....it sure looked good up until the games started!

:rolleyes: :popcorn: :oops:
Click to expand...
Yeah. Actually 3 of the 4 that lost looked really good 1H. USF, MTSU and Kent all covered ATS at HT. I even put more on MTSU in the 2H. Can't believe those 3 didn't cover full game, let alone win. Then VT tried at the end but they screwed up too much. After the fumble in their opening drive they were dead for most of the rest of the game.

But - how bout them Cats!
 
16 upsets yesterday - 9 of which were TD + dogs - 4 were DD dogs

If we include the weekday games, this week saw 18 upsets - 10 TD+ dogs won and 5 of those were DD (ULL, ODU, CU, Ga So, Stanford)

This was an extremely high concentration of FBS dog ATS covers. Counting even a 1 pt underdog and including the two FBS vs FCS games, a total of 36 dogs covered out of 48 games! Dogs 36-11-1 (counting Kansas as a push)
 
Last edited:
M.W. said:
Historical support for Tennessee:

Vols were just 7-6 last year, but that bodes well for them. Since 1989, there have been 10 undefeated home dogs that are 6-0 or better (after winning fewer than 10 games the previous year) facing an undefeated visitor. The home dog is 10-0 ATS.

And 10-0 straight up. See chart below.

This record includes Auburn over Florida in 1993, Alabama over Auburn in 1994, and OU over Nebraska in 2000. The most recent game was Michigan State over Michigan last year.

Those ten home dogs included two teams that had lost 7 straight to their opponents: OU in 2000 (featuring Josh Heupel at QB), which had lost 7 straight to Nebraska (including 69-7 and 73-21 in the two most-recent games in 1997 and 1996), and Mizzou in 2010, which had lost 7 straight to OU (including a 62-21 loss in the most recent matchup in 2008).

In 2006, Rutgers beat Louisville 28-25 despite having lost to UL 56-5 the previous year (their only prior matchup since 1986).

So long stretches of futility and recent blowout losses haven't stopped these home dogs in the past.


HD and wins > 5 and losses = 0 and o:losses = 0 and PRSW < 10
SU:10-0-0 (7.90, 100.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:10-0-0 (12.80, 100.0%) avg line: 4.9+6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 10-0-0 (100.0%) +10: 10-0-0 (100.0%) -10: 5-3-2 (62.5%)
O/U:5-2-0 (2.14, 71.4%) avg total: 59.6+6: 3-4-0 (42.9%)-6: 6-1-0 (85.7%)+10: 1-6-0 (14.3%)-10: 6-1-0 (85.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team32.3158.329.7280.919.91.18.610.36.19.633.2
Opp33.3141.341.9313.024.72.47.37.66.16.125.3
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Oct 16, 1993Saturday81993AUBFLAhome38-357.0310.0WW
Nov 19, 1994Saturday131994ALAAUBhome21-141.078.0WW
Oct 28, 2000Saturday102000OKLANEBhome31-142.51719.5WW
Nov 09, 2006Thursday112006RUTLOUhome7-157-108-06-028-255.552.538.50.54.5-4.0WWO0
Nov 01, 2008Saturday102008TXTTEXhome12-010-67-1310-1439-334.073.0610.0-1.04.5-5.5WWU0
Oct 23, 2010Saturday82010MIZOKLAhome7-710-73-716-636-273.053.5912.09.510.8-1.2WWO0
Nov 07, 2015Saturday102015OKSTTCUhome14-914-014-77-1349-295.076.52025.01.513.2-11.8WWO0
Nov 09, 2019Saturday112019MINPNSThome14-1010-30-67-731-266.548.0511.59.010.2-1.2WWO0
Dec 05, 2020boxSaturday142020CSTCBYUhome6-07-143-36-022-1710.563.0515.5-24.0-4.2-19.8WWU0
Oct 30, 2021boxSaturday92021MCSTMICHhome0-1014-138-715-337-334.050.548.019.513.85.8WWO0
Click to expand...
Now 11-0 SU and ATS. Congrats to Tennessee fans and backers.
 
M.W. said:
Not all that far from a clean sweep. Iowa State really blew some chances. I did not watch any of the Nebraska game, so I don’t know whether they were ever really in it.
Click to expand...

Nebraska was in it in a sense, but their D couldn't get enough stops to have the opportunity to tie or take lead. Their O lit it up in the 2H. Both Ds were a sieve
 
bones said:
Kent was up either 21-0 or 28-0 but only 31-28 @Half, lose 2H 24-0

Anybody see any of it? Collapse
Click to expand...

I saw it, but can't remember actually without assistance of looking back stats. I literally watch 10 games at once and more since I'm also changing channels. Great for being in the moment, bad for knowing what is happening and why. Once games start going south they don't get paid attention to much. I will say that at halftime, after the ground Toledo had made up, I was worried given that Kent hasn't played good games this year.
 
M.W. said:
Now 11-0 SU and ATS. Congrats to Tennessee fans and backers.
Click to expand...
this SDQL find was phenomenal.....I mean I thought the game was phenomenal and then to see this...I missed it last week as I was distracted by work but this SDQL query is one of the better ones I've seen....nice work!

:shake:
 
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