Week 8 ML Dogs

[ProV1Colt]

Welcome back Big 10....

We are about to get a full schedule coming up. There is some talk about bringing back the Underdog Contest this week or next.....

Stay Tuned.

Not many Dogs hit last week but the ones that did had a nice payout.


Let’s get Week 8 Discussion going!!!

 

[s--k]

Auburn is -6 at Ole Miss?

 

[s--k]

New Mexico is +20 at CSU

I believe Colorado had some strict prohibitions on practicing. Not sure when or how early CSU started work. I have not looked, but I would look into that. Plus there was some player discention from even earlier in the year about Addazzo and some resentment going on there. Might be something to check out. I know ZERO about the football merits of either team.

 

[s--k]

If Notre Dame didn't look so awful yesterday I would think Pitt (+8 at home) has a chance ,but no way we see a ND team like that again, is there?

 

[s--k]

FSU is +9 at Louisville...but Noles probably going to be reliving that UNC win in their heads all week.

 

[s--k]

NC State is +18 at UNC...how does UNC respond to that game? NCSt DL is pretty good too and we saw how UNC struggled blocking anyone.

 

[carolinablue]

UNC line now at 14.5 and Ville line now at 6

 

[carolinablue]

I will probably just take the over in the Heels game.

Arky State and USF might be worth a look as DD dogs as the ML number should be pretty nice

 

[JROCK1966]

UNC line now at 14.5 and Ville line now at 6

@s--k moving lines!!

 

[M.W.]

Florida St
NC State

 

[JROCK1966]

Wow! 1st time thru I feel like a kid in a candy store! Several DD games look very interesting to cap...several other +200 mls look inviting as well:

NC State
Arky St
UTEP
FSU
TCU
Navy
Baylor
Wake Forest
Pitt
Indiana
UL-Monroe
USCjr
Utah St.
Maryland
Hawaii
UVA
UNLV
San Jose St.

Lots of work ahead of me this week!

 

[spottie2935]

If Notre Dame didn't look so awful yesterday I would think Pitt (+8 at home) has a chance ,but no way we see a ND team like that again, is there?

No upset this week, ND Defense is the key here.

 

[spottie2935]

Gophers at home

 

[carolinablue]

UTEP
SMiss
FAU
Baylor
New Mexico
UNLV
Navy

 

[carolinablue]

I have never been much of ML dog player, but for fun I think this week I might give the ML dogs a shot with a batch of really small plays at like 20 bucks each at lines of +300 or greater just to see how I am reading things....Will be sure to post whatever I actually play once the MLs come out at BOL.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

FSU is +9 at Louisville...but Noles probably going to be reliving that UNC win in their heads all week.

Fascinating game.

Gun to head. I'm taking Norvell over Saterfield to lead my team.

FSU is hyped. The entire community knows they got an icon as a coach.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

NC State is +18 at UNC...how does UNC respond to that game? NCSt DL is pretty good too and we saw how UNC struggled blocking anyone.

If Mack Brown had a nickname it wouldnt be like the dominator more like the administrator. This is as tasty a ML bet as any I've felt in a while

 

[booksbestfriend]

FSU is hyped. The entire community knows they got an icon as a coach.

Fan base is divided. A lot of racial tension going back to Willie T. I'm not sold on Norvell. He is going to recruit better. Top-25 classes, saturated with 3*s is not going to cut it against Clemson.

 

[JROCK1966]

I'm trying to keep from jumping out of my chair. Last year, Navy was 11-2 finishing with a +9 differential between wins and losses. Houston was 4-8 finishing with a -4 differential. In last year's game between these two teams, Navy covered ATS by 4 pts @Houston. When I put these criteria in my query, I come up with a 20-0 SU record for the home team in the rematches. I've never seen anything like this. Last I looked, Navy is +12 dog.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Fan base is divided. A lot of racial tension going back to Willie T. I'm not sold on Norvell. He is going to recruit better. Top-25 classes, saturated with 3*s is not going to cut it against Clemson.

You would know better than I about FSU. I think you have a great one. Comparisons to Clemson are unfair. That program is ultra powerful. He has some things against him, but they are but distractions. He has already flipped the switch. They already proved they can beat anyone in ACC but Clemson. I dont sense an ego trip/let down spot. They have already gone thru humility this season.

 

[s--k]

@JROCK1966 hope your weekend was nice for you remembering your aunt and being with family. Glad you are back here with us too.

Why don't you play any of your MLs alone even for some change? You had FSU and UK. Had some near misses on Tulane and South Florida. Your head was in a good spot last week evaluating.

I know your bundle them up in parlays which pay out big money if you win, I'm just wondering, the odds are already against you on picking underdogs to win outright, you have to have multiple ones hit just to cash anything, it would seem like if you can win a few off your list each week you can make some money rather than having your parlays wiped out with losses.

Like last week you risked $100 on 99 round robins. Did the FSU and UK ML wins net you anything?

 

[JROCK1966]

@JROCK1966 hope your weekend was nice for you remembering your aunt and being with family. Glad you are back here with us too.

Why don't you play any of your MLs alone even for some change? You had FSU and UK. Had some near misses on Tulane and South Florida. Your head was in a good spot last week evaluating.

I know your bundle them up in parlays which pay out big money if you win, I'm just wondering, the odds are already against you on picking underdogs to win outright, you have to have multiple ones hit just to cash anything, it would seem like if you can win a few off your list each week you can make some money rather than having your parlays wiped out with losses.

Like last week you risked $100 on 99 round robins. Did the FSU and UK ML wins net you anything?

It doesn't matter. I would lose overall anyway and I can't stand the grind for ATS and SU lone bets....trying to make a little here or there.....keeping a record....plus this plus that. All that shit gets me into trouble mentally and I get burnt out. So I made the decision a couple years ago to play this way. It has been a while since I hit though. Overall, I think I am down about 1-1/2 to 2 dimes since I last hit one. That was in baseball about 18 months ago. I think I played a lot of those ML parlays this past baseball season and finished down about~$500. So, I guess I am down...yeah but 1) I can afford that type of loss over an 18 month period. And 2) the thing is it just takes one baby! Boom! I'd have it all back and then some! 3) It makes my Saturdays exciting as hell for the most part except when the dumbass QB for USF fumbles on his own 14yd line nursing a 5pt lead in the 4th Qtr!! Argh!!!

 

[s--k]

Well you know yourself, which is good. I know myself, which is also good. Knowing how you want to do things and ride the ups and downs makes it work.

I used to do ATS round robins when I first started betting and really liked it, had some fun days with those. I don't parlay anything now. I can only imagine the excitement it would be on +odds big parlay winnings. That would be a rush!

 

[JROCK1966]

2nd time thru....gonna take a closer look at these in the coming days....there's gotta be 4-5 winners in there somewhere.

NC State
Arky St.
TCU
Navy
Baylor
Indiana
Utah St.
Hawaii
UVA
UNLV
San Jose St.
Tennessee

opcorn:

 

[M.W.]

You would know better than I about FSU. I think you have a great one. Comparisons to Clemson are unfair. That program is ultra powerful. He has some things against him, but they are but distractions. He has already flipped the switch. They already proved they can beat anyone in ACC but Clemson. I dont sense an ego trip/let down spot. They have already gone thru humility this season.

Yeah, I think the Noles are back.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Missouri is very attractive to me. Their young QB can play and with UK coming off their Super Bowl win, there's a good chance they'll be flatter than a pancake.

 

[carolinablue]

Here are the 10 I am currently looking at...thinking about narrowing down the list so I end up taking 7 plays at +300 or greater so would need 2-5 to make a profit....any other potential +300's am I missing that may actually have a shot? Don't say Syracuse haha...

UNLV
New Mex
ULM
Baylor
FAU
SMiss
UTEP
Navy - now off the board?
Arky State
USF

 

[Frank Costanza]

You have to include Baylor. Such upheaval and a clusterfuck in Austin right now. The team may galvanize and play well Saturday or it may have already folded up the tent. Neither would surprise so it's definitely worth a Baylor ML play.

 

[JROCK1966]

Here are the 10 I am currently looking at...thinking about narrowing down the list so I end up taking 7 plays at +300 or greater so would need 2-5 to make a profit....any other potential +300's am I missing that may actually have a shot? Don't say Syracuse haha...

UNLV
New Mex
ULM
Baylor
FAU
SMiss
UTEP
Navy - now off the board?
Arky State
USF

Fuck! Are you shittin' me?

 

[carolinablue]

Fuck! Are you shittin' me?

Navy is up at +14 now....Are you gonna double up on that one by taking the ML and the points since it fits your read perfectly?

 

[carolinablue]

You have to include Baylor. Such upheaval and a clusterfuck in Austin right now. The team may galvanize and play well Saturday or it may have already folded up the tent. Neither would surprise so it's definitely worth a Baylor ML play.

Yeah, line keeps dropping though so probably won't get the +300 min I am looking for as last I saw it went from 10.5 down to 8.5 and still dropping. I wouldn't be surprised to see it closer to 7 at some point.

 

[JROCK1966]

Navy is up at +14 now....Are you gonna double up on that one by taking the ML and the points since it fits your read perfectly?

You scared the crap out of me!! LOL.

Let it go please.....let it go to +20 or +30 for all I care just let it go!

 

[JROCK1966]

Here are the 10 I am currently looking at...thinking about narrowing down the list so I end up taking 7 plays at +300 or greater so would need 2-5 to make a profit....any other potential +300's am I missing that may actually have a shot? Don't say Syracuse haha...

UNLV
New Mex
ULM
Baylor
FAU
SMiss
UTEP
Navy - now off the board?
Arky State
USF

Was interested in Baylor but the Horns have their backs against a wall right now. I don’t want to go against a team desperate for a win.

Arky State still looks like it may be a good pick to me. I have not uncovered anything yet that tells me no way!

I think UTEP gets a reality check, UL-Monroe’s woes continue, and UNLV has a very tall task ahead of it starting off the year vs. SDST.

Did not consider NM, FAU, USF, or USM. I might have to now that you seem interested.

You already know how I feel about the Middies!

 

[2daBank]

NC State is +18 at UNC...how does UNC respond to that game? NCSt DL is pretty good too and we saw how UNC struggled blocking anyone.

I freaking love the points in this game. These mf’ers lining ncst games are on crack. This team way better than they get credit for. Leary has become a solid qb, they got 2 really good running backs, and I love their play calling. If Unc beats these guys by more than 2 tds they can have my money. I think it more likely ncst wins than loses by that number.

 

[booksbestfriend]

I freaking love the points in this game. These mf’ers lining ncst games are on crack. This team way better than they get credit for. Leary has become a solid qb, they got 2 really good running backs, and I love their play calling. If Unc beats these guys by more than 2 tds they can have my money. I think it more likely ncst wins than loses by that number.

Leary is out for a while.

 

[2daBank]

Leary is out for a while.

oh fuck. That makes far more sense, why the hell do I feel like I watched most that Wolfpack game and had no idea!!! Fuck, that makes line a lot more reasonable and makes me sad. That was a 40% type bet!! Lol thanks for the heads up.

 

[JROCK1966]

Here are the 10 I am currently looking at...thinking about narrowing down the list so I end up taking 7 plays at +300 or greater so would need 2-5 to make a profit....any other potential +300's am I missing that may actually have a shot? Don't say Syracuse haha...

UNLV
New Mex
ULM
Baylor
FAU
SMiss
UTEP
Navy - now off the board?
Arky State
USF

I think I'm joining you on Southern Miss....we've seen Hugh Freeze's teams suffer letdowns coming home off road wins before...most recently was the FIU game where they darn near lost outright. Southern Miss has about as bad a defense as FIU (total yards allowed) but yet average almost 90 more ypg on offense....and they have had a couple weeks of rest. The line looks a bit short too as a 5-0 team is -10 at home vs. a 1-3 team.

opcorn:

 

[JROCK1966]

If there is an upset of note this week in the Big 10, looks to me like it would most likely be Indiana at home knocking off Penn St. Both teams return their QBs and some offense. The D Coordinator for IU says he thinks they have a top 25 defense. Coach Allen has an awful record (both ATS & SU) vs. winning teams but this one has the feel of one of those "signature type wins" fans and media talk about.....

opcorn:

 

[2daBank]

If there is an upset of note this week in the Big 10, looks to me like it would most likely be Indiana at home knocking off Penn St. Both teams return their QBs and some offense. The D Coordinator for IU says he thinks they have a top 25 defense. Coach Allen has an awful record (both ATS & SU) vs. winning teams but this one has the feel of one of those "signature type wins" fans and media talk about.....

opcorn:

how much does Illini return/lost from last years team? Bring anyone in of note?? Lovie’s team was really good to me last year, doubt they win but 20?? That a lot!!!

 

[JROCK1966]

3rd time thru and I think my card is taking shape.....

I really like these 3:
Navy
Southern Miss (thanks @carolinablue)
Hawaii

and I think I can make a decent case for these:
Arky St.
TCU
Indiana
San Jose St.
Tennessee 1st Qtr & 1st Half <====

 

[2daBank]

3rd time thru and I think my card is taking shape.....

I really like these 3:
Navy
Southern Miss (thanks @carolinablue)
Hawaii

and I think I can make a decent case for these:
Arky St.
TCU
Indiana
San Jose St.
Tennessee 1st Qtr & 1st Half <====

im quite sure I’ll be on arky st with the points at least. All the coaching turnover has finally caught up to app st imo. Been fading them most the year, only been a few damn plays so I’m assuming they must be dealing with bunch of covid?

 

[JROCK1966]

im quite sure I’ll be on arky st with the points at least. All the coaching turnover has finally caught up to app st imo. Been fading them most the year, only been a few damn plays so I’m assuming they must be dealing with bunch of covid?

I don't really know...like some of you already said in these forums keeping up with all the covid info is very tough to do and I agree.......but this game looks like a shootout waiting to happen though and both teams seem evenly matched to me. I'll take a shot at a +300 dog if that's the case! PS - my queries are saying the percentage of winning goes down for the home team if they have more rest....does that make any sense? I've posted before how I love things that make no sense!

 

[Frank Costanza]

Man, this is a great thread.

 

[JROCK1966]

In away games vs. opponents coming off a winning season where they had won at least 2 more than they lost (Indiana was 8-5 last year,) James Franklin coached teams are 4-13 SU for a 23% winning percentage. The conditions are ripe for the Hoosiers if they want it bad enough.

 

[spottie2935]

In away games vs. opponents coming off a winning season where they had won at least 2 more than they lost (Indiana was 8-5 last year,) James Franklin coached teams are 4-13 SU for a 23% winning percentage. The conditions are ripe for the Hoosiers if they want it bad enough.

View attachment 51214

In your example PNST is 2-0 SU as a favorite and real bad as a dog. Indiana is coming off 8 win season The last time they did that was 1993. I am scared of this one.

 

[spottie2935]

https://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/query?output=default&sdql=t%3Ateam+%3D+IND+and+season%3E1993++and+opS%28W%29%3E6+and+HC+and+line%3E3+and+week%3C13&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

 

[JROCK1966]

In your example PNST is 2-0 SU as a favorite and real bad as a dog. Indiana is coming off 8 win season The last time they did that was 1993. I am scared of this one.

He's also really bad when the total is above 52 (0-4). (see pic 1 below) I try to stay clear of favs and dogs and totals and limit my queries to seeing how teams and coaches fair in situations that may indicate a line is wrong. Like this situation for teams coming off a winning season with at least 3 more wins than losses, playing at home vs. an opponent coming off a winning season with 9 more wins than losses, and that last matchup the team played away and beat the spread by 0-10pts.....home teams in this situation are 7-2 SU including a 20 pt dog winning....a query that shows a 20pt dog winning (see pic 2) is what I like to see in addition to having a 78% winning percentage! It's gambling....anything can happen and Penn St. certainly can win this game....but I'm just saying hey this one's got some really good mojo for the home team and they are at plus money! BOL in what you decide!

 

[carolinablue]

Here are all of mine that I locked in at BOL last night just for fun:

Mobile - FOOTBALL - 305 Arkansas State +320 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 308 South Florida +290 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 373 Florida Atlantic +550 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 383 Southern Miss +285 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 391 UTEP +460 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 363 UL Monroe +460 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 345 Baylor +265 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 336 Navy +430 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 369 New Mexico +535 for GAME

Best of luck to you guys this weekend!
CB

 

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[booksbestfriend]

Ole Miss
Maryland
Hawaii
Cincy