Week 8 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
app st still has 7 guys on Covid list. Only one for sure out but you gotta figure few others will be or even best case will not have practiced and be out of shape! I have no idea how they laying dd here? Charlotte had this app st in real trouble until they pulled away at the very end. Arky st is gonna give them all they want!
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Thank you. I had no idea. NC State is not playable without Leary imo.
UNC prolly wins by 4 tds
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Definitely playing them.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
45-17 is my prediction
carolinablue
College Football Guru
FYI this will be the first game App will get to play in front of fans. Will only be max of 2100 but still something although I am not sure how much that plays into things, but definitely won’t hurt App as they may come out more fired up than usual.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Coach Anderson's numbers are really good in this situation. I like him having his team ready to play. Gonna be tough to pull out the win outright but 12 pts is too many I agree.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
FAU +605
G Tech +135
Virginia +335
Pitt +335
These are not based on what I think will happen on the field but Just based on lines and what has taken place so far. Upsets happen and as far as prices go these are what I think have great odds. I prefer straight bets over money lines
G Tech +135
Virginia +335
Pitt +335
These are not based on what I think will happen on the field but Just based on lines and what has taken place so far. Upsets happen and as far as prices go these are what I think have great odds. I prefer straight bets over money lines
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
it's -3 now guess I waited too long but I do think backing Ole Miss is the play.....fwiw!
opcorn:
2daBank
Voice of Reason
is pitt qb Pickett healthy? If so that a great price, without him not so sure.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it's -3 now guess I waited too long but I do think backing Ole Miss is the play.....fwiw!
yep, I think they win outright. I know ol piss can’t stop a nose bleed but if they get auburn into a shootout they will stop themselves a few times!
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Even without Pickett the Pitt D gave them nice opportunities last week
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea I don’t have much interest in the ml but when I went in book to make WS play today it was -13 so I bought a point and took +14 attached to a few plays today. I’m not much into buying points but couldn’t believe I could take it to +14 so cheap so I pulled the trigger hoping at least one carries over if not both!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
that was the best I’ve seen their pass defense perform. It incredibly tough to run on their front 7 which should def give them a chance, hopefully pass defense continues playing well cause they got carved in few games this year. That front 7 is no joke. I’d love them with Pickett. Kinda like them without.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
FAU is no joke. +17 is absurd. Marshall is good but I think at some point in the game FAU will be leading this one and it will be decided in the 4th Q
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I'm done betting against this Marshall squad fwiw. BOL on your wager though! That would be a heckuva ML hit!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
it's -3 now guess I waited too long but I do think backing Ole Miss is the play.....fwiw!
All those numbers I posted to start the thread with were the Circa openers Sunday afternoon so probably weren't available to many, certainly not me.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
One thing about Auburn though, yeah they threw 3 INTs at South Carolina and that plays a role in why the stats and score is what it was, but Auburn was +179 yards vs South Carolina and ran for 209 (5.8 ypc) vs what is atleast a decent SC D and still had a chance to tie near the EZ as time expired. And Auburn ran for 269 (6.3) on Arkansas two weeks ago, which I think most of us are respectful of what Odom and Ark D has been doing this year. What are they going to run for vs OM who on average is giving up 265 per game? The +6 and ML odds of what that would've been for OM as the home dog made it interesting, but now at 3...meh, it is also hard to trust Ole Miss. Tough game to pick honestly (no pun intended but these QBs combined for 9 picks last week)!
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spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
and the line is +17 because the books feel the same as you. Tired of losing against Marshall. The consensus is high again. And please don't think this is only a fade the public play, but it does play a role.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Talking myself into S. Carolina.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Tank rushing prop could be interesting. Kid is a gamer.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Can certainly see this. Brennan is listed as doubtful as well...what do we know about LSU's backup QB?
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I know nothing. The only thing I do know is LSU is getting respect from being 25-15 ATS ( 2017-2019) before this season started now they are 1-2 ATS this season. They are not the same strong team. In the past I have made money off teams that were once great and things dont look so good anymore. This is the case so far with LSU and after a spread loss they could go on to lose a number of spreads this season. If they cover I will adjust. If they dont fade them again.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Never mind on the Baylor ML. We will dominate them.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
There some teams this week that all a sudden find themselves in the fav role for which they not familiar.
Hate to say it but I dunno how the hell ville favs over any other acc team right now? Havnt capped this one yet but there no damn way I’d be laying points here! It fsu or nothing imo.
one my new favorite teams coastal Carolina is not only playing the fav roll but have found themselves making the top 25!!! Now I’ve loved backing this team as a dog and they been so great to us but let’s be serious here, I don’t think this a top 25 team! They allowed ku to score 23 for fucks sake, the only team who has allowed ku more than 2 tds until that redic kick return by them in last minute last week (to totally fuck my under!), I like coastal but they are not a great team by any stretch. Ga southern finds themselves in the very familiar role of playing another team who just jumped into the rankings (coincidentally enough after beating the same team ga southern played in that spot last time in ull!). In that game Ga southern gave ull all they wanted in a game they eventually lost 20-18. Both these teams live by their run games so the clock should fly by in this game. I like ga southern chances to get their run game humming and make this a game that prob decided by one possession. I dunno who wins but I’ll happily take the 6 points and if it that close money line prob worth a shot.
Hate to say it but I dunno how the hell ville favs over any other acc team right now? Havnt capped this one yet but there no damn way I’d be laying points here! It fsu or nothing imo.
one my new favorite teams coastal Carolina is not only playing the fav roll but have found themselves making the top 25!!! Now I’ve loved backing this team as a dog and they been so great to us but let’s be serious here, I don’t think this a top 25 team! They allowed ku to score 23 for fucks sake, the only team who has allowed ku more than 2 tds until that redic kick return by them in last minute last week (to totally fuck my under!), I like coastal but they are not a great team by any stretch. Ga southern finds themselves in the very familiar role of playing another team who just jumped into the rankings (coincidentally enough after beating the same team ga southern played in that spot last time in ull!). In that game Ga southern gave ull all they wanted in a game they eventually lost 20-18. Both these teams live by their run games so the clock should fly by in this game. I like ga southern chances to get their run game humming and make this a game that prob decided by one possession. I dunno who wins but I’ll happily take the 6 points and if it that close money line prob worth a shot.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I know Ga southern has dealt with the Rona and still have a long list of guys in injury report that questionable but they have all been out for every game this session I believe. I don’t see anything new to raise concerns so I think the line going up must just be ppl valuing coastal more than I do, which just fine by me 
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
same side here. Bottom 25 ranked teams make great fades
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I was looking hard at Georgia Southern last night and found some interesting trends in their favor. :shake: Still considering them....
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
FAU +605
G Tech +135
Virginia +335
Pitt +335
Geor Southern +205
So Carolina +195
G Tech +135
Virginia +335
Pitt +335
Geor Southern +205
So Carolina +195
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I thought that might kinda be up your alley as I feel like I’m getting a decent idea on how you approach things! When they 1st enter the top 25 I think often a great time. Just have to watch out for them teams that are simply on the rise that nobody saw coming. I like coastal but I don’t really think they all that.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
So much for my New Mexico ML play as that game has been canceled...Actually felt pretty good about that one at 535, so back to the drawing board to see if there is another high value ML Dog play I can replace it with...
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Am I crazy to think KU might have a chance in this one? Kansas +800 is one I am considering...
Also looking at Wake +280, Maryland +345, GSU +205, SJSU +225
Looking for something to replace my canceled play on NM at +535, so if you had to pick one of the 5 above, which would it be and why?
Also looking at Wake +280, Maryland +345, GSU +205, SJSU +225
Looking for something to replace my canceled play on NM at +535, so if you had to pick one of the 5 above, which would it be and why?
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
I already played the game but didnt think about a moneyline. This one isnt a big payout but also has stronger probability. I like capping moneylines a lot because it helps me select spread winners. I dont bet many though.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I threw out Maryland for consideration based on their first game in previous years. They tend to show out before getting ripped apart by injury.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
True Freshman both that I really never expected much from.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Kansas is (again) atrocious. And its best player just left the team. Klieman just got extended and he knows it's important to wax KU.
K State is one of my favorite plays of the weekend even without Skylar Thompson.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
SJST late game madness
carolinablue
College Football Guru
That is the one that I am leaning towards right now, because I could see that one going either way (same could be said for Ga Southern, but not sure I want to get in front of that Coastal train right now).
It's funny because I am taking my son and his friend backpack camping this weekend so no cell reception and I won't see a minute of cfb action on Saturday, and won't have any idea how my plays did until I check my account on Sunday morning when we get back to civilization. Part of me just wants to check my account on Sunday while the other part of me wants to actually check all the boxscores, so I am torn as to which way to go. First thing I will do is check the UNC score of course!
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
This is the life of a football bettor. Life is busy so one must choose life before watching bets and games lol. Have a great trip.
spottie2935
Read Lines, Not Books
Georgia Tech ML... enjoy
Away teams kick ass and straight up even. This play rocks!
Why is this play so good. The lines maker knows the bettors have no idea that Georgia Tech can hang after last weeks blow out. How could one possibly place a bet on Tech after that game. Well BC lost to Virginia Tech last week 40-14 and Virginia Techs QB ran for over 100 yards and 3 td's rushing. That's how. Sims is going to run and have success and that is enough for me to take a nice price here. In my opinion i have a better chance of winning this then losing this and at + money. No brainer
Away teams kick ass and straight up even. This play rocks!
Why is this play so good. The lines maker knows the bettors have no idea that Georgia Tech can hang after last weeks blow out. How could one possibly place a bet on Tech after that game. Well BC lost to Virginia Tech last week 40-14 and Virginia Techs QB ran for over 100 yards and 3 td's rushing. That's how. Sims is going to run and have success and that is enough for me to take a nice price here. In my opinion i have a better chance of winning this then losing this and at + money. No brainer
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JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Consider Tennessee +556 1st half if you are looking to replace a +500 dog. Writeup coming shortly.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Alabama@Tennessee: First of all there is no way to go but up for the Vols. They were in a letdown spot coming home from Georgia and it ended up being an incredibly embarrassing defeat at the hands of my Cats last weekend. And, if they do not give their best this Saturday, it could be more of the same. I can't imagine these Vols not having more pride in themselves than that. They are less than two weeks off of leading Georgia at the half....in Athens! The Vols were in this position (coming off a game where they did not cover the spead by over 20pts) last year and did bounce back in the 1st half. They covered the spread vs. BYU 1st Qtr & 1st half last year. (see pic 1) It was 2nd half where they imploded. Happened again @ Georgia and also last week at home vs. Kentucky. These Vols do not seem to have the depth of be in shape to sustain a full 60 minutes of quality play. But we do not need 60 minutes....we just need 30!
Alabama is coming off a physical game vs. the Dawgs and they covered the spread by more than 10pts. If there is such a thing (as a time when Saban has been vulnerable) it is off home games where his teams have covered a spread by more than 10 pts. (See pic 3) Compare the win percentage of 59% with his overall winning percentage of 79%. (See pic 2) I'm just saying, now is as good a time as any if you're gonna get to Saban. Also consider, Ole Miss stood toe-to-toe with the Tide for 45 minutes.....is Tennessee any worse a football team than Ole Miss? They were matching up physically just fine with Georgia for an entire half! If they give their best effort, they most certainly can give the Tide some fits IMHO. We're gonna need the Tide to not be at their best of course but, as my queries indicate below, the percentages are favorable as they will ever be that the Tide will not be at their best.
I see the Vols at +553 for the 1st half at my book. I'm just saying, at +553 odds, I think it is worth a shot. 1st Qtr too if and when its available!
Alabama is coming off a physical game vs. the Dawgs and they covered the spread by more than 10pts. If there is such a thing (as a time when Saban has been vulnerable) it is off home games where his teams have covered a spread by more than 10 pts. (See pic 3) Compare the win percentage of 59% with his overall winning percentage of 79%. (See pic 2) I'm just saying, now is as good a time as any if you're gonna get to Saban. Also consider, Ole Miss stood toe-to-toe with the Tide for 45 minutes.....is Tennessee any worse a football team than Ole Miss? They were matching up physically just fine with Georgia for an entire half! If they give their best effort, they most certainly can give the Tide some fits IMHO. We're gonna need the Tide to not be at their best of course but, as my queries indicate below, the percentages are favorable as they will ever be that the Tide will not be at their best.
I see the Vols at +553 for the 1st half at my book. I'm just saying, at +553 odds, I think it is worth a shot. 1st Qtr too if and when its available!
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
I am already on Alabama -11.5 1H as blindly playing Bama 1Hs served me well last year and it worked against A&M, so figure why not keep pressing my luck...
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
This thread does more to help me handicap each week than any other thread
Boy, I see a LOT of good dogs this week. Most of the season by far. Instead of trying to find good dogs I'm selecting from a full menu of good dogs.
The ones I like most so far are
Minnesota--(already bet this one at Minn +3x)
Cincinnati
Baylor
UAB--this one has gone from UAB -3 to UAB +1. Not sure if some important player is out for UAB, but I don't get the move
Hawaii--(already bet this one at Hawaii +4x. Both teams with new coaches, Fresno guy was last a head coach--had a lot of success--at Sioux Falls college in the 90s, has been an assistant since before, Todd Graham has been successful everywhere he's been, uber successful at Tulsa and I expect big things from him at Hawaii)
Only bets so far ATS, but I think I'll play all the above along with a couple of others as ML parlays for a few bucks each.
Boy, I see a LOT of good dogs this week. Most of the season by far. Instead of trying to find good dogs I'm selecting from a full menu of good dogs.
The ones I like most so far are
Minnesota--(already bet this one at Minn +3x)
Cincinnati
Baylor
UAB--this one has gone from UAB -3 to UAB +1. Not sure if some important player is out for UAB, but I don't get the move
Hawaii--(already bet this one at Hawaii +4x. Both teams with new coaches, Fresno guy was last a head coach--had a lot of success--at Sioux Falls college in the 90s, has been an assistant since before, Todd Graham has been successful everywhere he's been, uber successful at Tulsa and I expect big things from him at Hawaii)
Only bets so far ATS, but I think I'll play all the above along with a couple of others as ML parlays for a few bucks each.
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