Week 8 Discussion

SF_capper

SF_capper

CTG addict
<TABLE class="matchupBox fontsize12" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>NFL - Oct 26 </TD></TR><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>NFL - WEEK 8 SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26TH [ BYE: CHI, DEN, GB, MIN ] </TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>199</TD><TD class=teamCell>OAKLAND</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794771_1_0_7_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+7-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794771_1_2_-36_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o36-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>200</TD><TD class=teamCell>BALTIMORE</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794771_1_1_-7_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-7-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794771_1_3_36_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u36-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>201]CHARGERS VS 202]SAINTS GAME IS BEING PLAYED AT WEMBLEY STADIUM IN LONDON, ENGLAND </TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>201</TD><TD class=teamCell>SAN DIEGO</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794772_1_0_-3.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-3½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794772_1_2_-46.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o46½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>202</TD><TD class=teamCell>NEW ORLEANS</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794772_1_1_3.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+3½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794772_1_3_46.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u46½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>203</TD><TD class=teamCell>KANSAS CITY</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794773_1_0_11.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+11½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794773_1_2_-38_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o38-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>204</TD><TD class=teamCell>NY JETS</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794773_1_1_-11.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-11½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794773_1_3_38_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u38-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>205</TD><TD class=teamCell>BUFFALO</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794774_1_0_-2_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-2-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794774_1_2_-41_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o41-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>206</TD><TD class=teamCell>MIAMI</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794774_1_1_2_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+2-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794774_1_3_41_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u41-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>207</TD><TD class=teamCell>TAMPA BAY</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>208</TD><TD class=teamCell>DALLAS</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>209</TD><TD class=teamCell>ATLANTA</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794776_1_0_8_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+8-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794776_1_2_-46_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o46-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>210</TD><TD class=teamCell>PHILADELPHIA</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794776_1_1_-8_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-8-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794776_1_3_46_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u46-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>211</TD><TD class=teamCell>ST. LOUIS</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>212</TD><TD class=teamCell>NEW ENGLAND</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>213</TD><TD class=teamCell>ARIZONA</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794778_1_0_4.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+4½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794778_1_2_-43.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o43½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>214</TD><TD class=teamCell>CAROLINA</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794778_1_1_-4.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-4½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794778_1_3_43.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u43½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>10:00 AM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>215</TD><TD class=teamCell>WASHINGTON</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794779_1_0_-7.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-7½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794779_1_2_-44.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o44½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>216</TD><TD class=teamCell>DETROIT</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794779_1_1_7.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+7½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794779_1_3_44.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u44½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>1:05 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>217</TD><TD class=teamCell>CLEVELAND</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794780_1_0_6.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+6½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794780_1_2_-41_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o41-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>218</TD><TD class=teamCell>JACKSONVILLE</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794780_1_1_-6.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-6½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794780_1_3_41_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u41-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>1:15 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>219</TD><TD class=teamCell>NY GIANTS</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794781_1_0_2.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+2½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794781_1_2_-43_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o43-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>220</TD><TD class=teamCell>PITTSBURGH</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794781_1_1_-2.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-2½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794781_1_3_43_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u43-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>1:15 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>221</TD><TD class=teamCell>SEATTLE</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>222</TD><TD class=teamCell>SAN FRANCISCO</TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>WRITE - IN GAME </TD></TR><TR class=oddRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>1:05 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>227</TD><TD class=teamCell>CINCINNATI</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794783_1_0_10_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+10-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794783_1_2_-44.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o44½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>228</TD><TD class=teamCell>HOUSTON</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794783_1_1_-10_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-10-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794783_1_3_44.5_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u44½-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>NFL - Oct 27 </TD></TR><TR class=banner><TD colSpan=2>NFL - WEEK 8 MONDAY, OCTOBER 27TH </TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=leftColumn><SMALL>5:35 PM</SMALL></TD><TD class=rightColumn><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rotCell>225</TD><TD class=teamCell>INDIANAPOLIS</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794784_1_0_4_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>+4-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794784_1_2_-42_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>o42-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rotCell>226</TD><TD class=teamCell>TENNESSEE</TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794784_1_1_-4_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>-4-110 </LABEL></TD><TD class=selectCell><LABEL><INPUT class=chkbox value=794784_1_3_42_-110_NFL type=checkbox name=game>u42-110 </LABEL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
As far as value from my numbers, actually a lot this week meaning I'm probably doing something wrong. Looking at
New Orleans (was expecting solid 3 with heavier juice on NO),
Kansas City (had this at 10, and still at that number was leaning KC with LJ back and NYJs lack of D)
Atlanta (had this at -6. dunno what Philly has proven to merit 8 points faves. Although I get the line (carolina/Tampa were -9 vs ATL and both covered), stillphilly has no real impressive games yet)
Carolina (had this at -6. Arizona hasnt done too much to impress me, and definitely not at home. Carolina despite what many of you think, are steady at 5-2 with solid wins. esp strong in defending the pass, and well get to show it off gainst zona's pass oriented offense.
Jax- had it at 7.5 as I put Jax .5 above Wash
Pitt- had it at a solid 3
Tennessee- Had it at 6.5. Indi hasnt really shown anything all yr
Had wash at -6, so value at 7.5 imo, but cannot play detroit.

1st time so many of my lines were off by this much. dunno if its a good/bad thing. Want to take Tennessee and Carolina, but dont know if I should wait it out and jump.
BM opened Tenn -3 -125- man thatd be nice to have right now. MB has -3.5 112, thinking about it..
 
NFL SPREAD<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#c48f1b border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0_sub vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD width="100%" bgColor=#222222>
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</TD><MAP name=offshore_links><AREA shape=POLY target=_blank alt=Sportsbook.com coords=434,97,504,33,568,33,501,97 href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=655"><AREA shape=POLY target=_blank alt=BoDog coords=503,97,572,33,605,33,605,55,563,97 href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=633"></MAP><TD colSpan=11>
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" bgColor=#c48f1b border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/20 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>431 Denver</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>432 New England</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>ESPN
DEN-Multiple WR/RB Injured
NE-RB-Maroney-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 47
-3.0 -120</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> 48½
-3.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> 48½
-3.0 +100</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> 48
-3.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> 49½
-3.0 +100</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> 49
-3.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> 48½
-3.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> 48½
-3.0 EVEN</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> 49
-3 -105</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> Picks</NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>199 Oakland</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>200 Baltimore</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Byes: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 35½
-7.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>201 San Diego</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>202 New Orleans</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>@ London, England
TOTAL CIRCLED: Possible Inclement Weather
SD-WR-Chambers, Davis-Questionable
NO-RB-Bush-OUT, WR-Patten-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -3.0
46</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -3.5-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -3.5-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>203 Kansas City</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>204 New York-A</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>KC-RB-Johnson-Probable; QB-Croyle-OUT; QB-Huard-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 38
-12.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-12.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-12.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>205 Buffalo</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>206 Miami</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -2.5
41½</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -2.5-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -2.0-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>207 Tampa Bay</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>208 Dallas</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>NO LINE:
TB plays Sunday Night
DAL-QB-Romo-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR>
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>209 Atlanta</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>210 Phila.</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>PHI-RB-Westbrook-Probable; WRs-Brown, Curtis-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 44½
-7.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-9.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>211 St. Louis</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>212 New England</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>GAME OFF BOARD:
NE plays Monday Night
Sunday Night Line: NE -7.5 / 44.5
STL-RB-Jackson-Questionable
NE-RBs-Maroney, Jordan-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR>
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>213 Arizona</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>214 Carolina</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>AZ-WR-Boldin-Questionable; TE-Patrick-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 45
-4.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-4.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 1:00 PM</TD><TD align=right> </TD></TR><TR><TD>215 Washington</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>216 Detroit</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> -9.0
45</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -7.5-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> -9.0-110
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 4:05 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>217 Cleveland</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>218 Jacksonville</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>CLE-TE-Winslow-Probable
JAC-RB-Taylor-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 41
-7.5 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-7.5 +105</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 4:15 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>219 New York-N</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>220 Pittsburgh</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>NYG-WR-Tyree-Questionable
PIT-RB-Parker-Questionable

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 44
-3.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-2.5 -125</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-1.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 4:15 PM</TD><TD align=right>
notes.gif
</TD></TR><TR><TD>221 Seattle</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>222 San Fran.</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>GAME OFF BOARD:
SEA plays Sunday Night
SEA-QB-Hasselbeck-Questionable
Sunday Night Line: SF -2.5 / 45.0 (IN)

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR>
</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> XX
XX </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/26 4:05 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>227 Cincinnati</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>228 Houston</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>WRITE-IN GAME
CIN-QB-Palmer-OUT

</TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 46½
-9.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-10.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-10.0 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_even vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_odd><TD style="POSITION: relative" vAlign=bottom width="100%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=13>10/27 8:35 PM</TD><TD align=right>
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</TD></TR><TR><TD>225 Indianapolis</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>226 Tennessee</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>ESPN
IND-RB-Addai-(very) Doubtful

</TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=58><NOBR> 41
-4.0 </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-3.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=60><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR>
-3.5 -110</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=59><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> </NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=67><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=667</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=bottom noWrap align=middle width=61><NOBR> http://www.vegasinsider.com/link_hitcount.cfm?LTid=657</NOBR></TD><TD class=oddsText_odd vAlign=center noWrap align=middle width=42><NOBR> </NOBR></TD></TR><TR class=oddsText_even></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom align=middle><TD class=a1 align=left>Updated: Mon, Oct 20 07:50 AM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Any way the Tennesee line comes down to 3? I think the Titans are going to put a whooping on the Colts. Johnson/White should run all over the Colts...

I love Buffalo -2 at the Dolphins..I have a line of -1 with my book, not that it matters that much. An AFC East division game, I think the Bills will look at this as a great way to have a stranglehold on the division. I'm hammering this line

I think Philly should be able to handle the Falcons pretty easily. I think the Eagle blitzing will give rookie Matt Ryan trouble all day....
 
Leans that are subject to change
Titans -4- Not a big bet simply because this is the Colts season right here. However the Titans will be hungry to send a message to an injury riddled Colts team. There's a good chance I won't play this but I lean toward the Titans.

Miami +2- The line is just begging people to take the Bills. Buffalo doesn't have the killer D that could shut down the Miami offense and I think Miami's front 7 can keep Lynch in check.

Tampa-Whatever the number. They will skullfuck Dallas.

Leaning Jags and Gmen.

Carolina -4.5- Arizona on the road playing at noon. You do the math.
 
SFcapper - think there were some injuries that you may not have accounted for . Pitt losing a CB and Troy with the concussion and KC possibly having to start Thigpen. Plus if your catching +10 at home hard pressed to see less then that on teh road especially since Jets -3 @ Oakland which is -10 at home .....Zona line well they beat Dallas at home and here youy are probably right . Atland Philly borderline cant be less then -7 IMO so probably correct . Saints lose Reggie Bush but would agree regardless as NO has been line very weak IMO and SD fairly strong ...Dont see what case you make for Tenny being -6.5 they havent really beaten anyone of note and think KC was there highest total . Indy has ben blah but no Addai with a indoor team @ GB ...that was a terrible lean IMO ...Think Tenny -3 at most is accurate as I think only decent team Tenny played was Vikes at home as just -3 or os while Indy was -1 @ minny ....Sanders and Addai really make it hard to back Indy w/o them . I think seeing how Houston played them if they can contain the Tenny run game somehow the Colts could win SU . However this is going to be liek a Super Bowl game for Tenny ...


Week 8 Leans :

Eagles : Philly defense will be very tough on ATL and really contain the running game . The ATL defense is very flawed IMO but the best showing ATL has away was very a depleted GB defense . Different story here .

Lions : Came me uhm Nuts but think Det wins this game SU . They had a hangover after the Vikings tough loss but showed clearly they are still fighting plus get the picture that you need to feed CJ deep. Det defense was much better in the 2nd H as well . What did Wash do vs Cle ??? Great bounce back spot and CLe missed a FG to tie at least a banged up Giants team on a short week won and covered . So like KC vs DEN pretty strong ML play here ....

Car - So unimpressed with Zona vs Dallas . Car defense wil pressure Warner all day and that will be there downfall when they struggle to run it .

Chances are I would rather fade TB then back Dallas. Watch we see a -3 /-4 number . TB should have steamrolled SEA and didnt . There defense isnt the same on the road and its going to be on Garcia again with Galloway out probably and Hillard banged up ...fading teams off big unexpected wins on primetime has been a good angle recently ......

SD but this will be a shootout no doubt in my mind . Saints wiull struggle to run it and have to just pass all day . Colston ? Shockey ?? Bush Out ....

Phins a very strong lean .... Bills pulling out games late and always like fading home dogs who are home chalk the next week as this barely applies ..Bills not 4 pts bettet the Balt at best they are even and Bills defense decimated with injuries after SD .....

Jets -13 is tough really hard to back KC if Thigpen starts if Huard does with LJ I would entertain it . Well if they get a new kicker as well ...otherwise if its KC 2nd team then probably interested in NYJ whose defense has played well but the offense looks like crap still...

Cle +7 or better as I think -4.5 is more accurate . A TD at Wash was to much and Jax is basically a weaker defense maybe slithily better offense ...

SF fires Nolan so who know about that one but Wallace should be the QB ...lines kinda cheap IMO as SF edged them in SEA at +6 with Hasselback back then I thought they were close to even so at least -6 here IMO ...

Giants and Steelers loads of injuries on each side but prefer Pitt at home ....

With MNF its a long way from today but the key is Indy vs the run which is Tenny strength and inproving with WHite's shoulder obviously better. Not sure about value on Tenn side as if they win its by 3 IMO so have to fade the perfect team ATS when playing its toughest opponent off a terribel loss skewed by 2 pick 6s that basically took away 10 from Indy and gave GB 14 ....

Pats really got banged up here and big issue with them is how they bounce back after expending effort so far .....:cheers:


























 
After some more thought, I think the best plays are Carolina and Miami in that order.


Buffalo is a solid team but they've had three West Coast teams come to play Buffalo in the first six games along with a Jags team that had NO offensive line coming off a physical game agains Tennessee. That's extremely favorable there that leads me to believe Miami wins this game. Miami has only been outscored by 10 points this year and are 2-4 but the two wins were against supposed top teams. Seems like the Dolphins do a good job of getting up for the big games.If the books liked the Bills, I think this line is BUF -3.5. Public will be all over the Bills at +1.

Arizona going to Carolina where the Panthers have the second best pass defense in the league. Only thing that gives me pause is the Cards have had a bye week. Not sure what to make of that.
 
SportsNut said:
SFcapper - think there were some injuries that you may not have accounted for . Pitt losing a CB and Troy with the concussion and KC possibly having to start Thigpen. Plus if your catching +10 at home hard pressed to see less then that on teh road especially since Jets -3 @ Oakland which is -10 at home .....Zona line well they beat Dallas at home and here youy are probably right . Atland Philly borderline cant be less then -7 IMO so probably correct . Saints lose Reggie Bush but would agree regardless as NO has been line very weak IMO and SD fairly strong ...Dont see what case you make for Tenny being -6.5 they havent really beaten anyone of note and think KC was there highest total . Indy has ben blah but no Addai with a indoor team @ GB ...that was a terrible lean IMO ...Think Tenny -3 at most is accurate as I think only decent team Tenny played was Vikes at home as just -3 or os while Indy was -1 @ minny ....Sanders and Addai really make it hard to back Indy w/o them . I think seeing how Houston played them if they can contain the Tenny run game somehow the Colts could win SU . However this is going to be liek a Super Bowl game for Tenny ...


Week 8 Leans :

Eagles : Philly defense will be very tough on ATL and really contain the running game . The ATL defense is very flawed IMO but the best showing ATL has away was very a depleted GB defense . Different story here .

Lions : Came me uhm Nuts but think Det wins this game SU . They had a hangover after the Vikings tough loss but showed clearly they are still fighting plus get the picture that you need to feed CJ deep. Det defense was much better in the 2nd H as well . What did Wash do vs Cle ??? Great bounce back spot and CLe missed a FG to tie at least a banged up Giants team on a short week won and covered . So like KC vs DEN pretty strong ML play here ....

Car - So unimpressed with Zona vs Dallas . Car defense wil pressure Warner all day and that will be there downfall when they struggle to run it .

Chances are I would rather fade TB then back Dallas. Watch we see a -3 /-4 number . TB should have steamrolled SEA and didnt . There defense isnt the same on the road and its going to be on Garcia again with Galloway out probably and Hillard banged up ...fading teams off big unexpected wins on primetime has been a good angle recently ......

SD but this will be a shootout no doubt in my mind . Saints wiull struggle to run it and have to just pass all day . Colston ? Shockey ?? Bush Out ....

Phins a very strong lean .... Bills pulling out games late and always like fading home dogs who are home chalk the next week as this barely applies ..Bills not 4 pts bettet the Balt at best they are even and Bills defense decimated with injuries after SD .....

Jets -13 is tough really hard to back KC if Thigpen starts if Huard does with LJ I would entertain it . Well if they get a new kicker as well ...otherwise if its KC 2nd team then probably interested in NYJ whose defense has played well but the offense looks like crap still...

Cle +7 or better as I think -4.5 is more accurate . A TD at Wash was to much and Jax is basically a weaker defense maybe slithily better offense ...

SF fires Nolan so who know about that one but Wallace should be the QB ...lines kinda cheap IMO as SF edged them in SEA at +6 with Hasselback back then I thought they were close to even so at least -6 here IMO ...

Giants and Steelers loads of injuries on each side but prefer Pitt at home ....

With MNF its a long way from today but the key is Indy vs the run which is Tenny strength and inproving with WHite's shoulder obviously better. Not sure about value on Tenn side as if they win its by 3 IMO so have to fade the perfect team ATS when playing its toughest opponent off a terribel loss skewed by 2 pick 6s that basically took away 10 from Indy and gave GB 14 ....

Pats really got banged up here and big issue with them is how they bounce back after expending effort so far .....:cheers:
Click to expand...

You like the Vikings better than the Jaguars and @ Ravens? I think the Texans are around the same level as the Vikings. Colts aren't as good as the Jags imo. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not as high on the Colts and Vikings as you are I guess.
 
MusicCityGambler said:
After some more thought, I think the best plays are Carolina and Miami in that order.


Buffalo is a solid team but they've had three West Coast teams come to play Buffalo in the first six games along with a Jags team that had NO offensive line coming off a physical game agains Tennessee. That's extremely favorable there that leads me to believe Miami wins this game. Miami has only been outscored by 10 points this year and are 2-4 but the two wins were against supposed top teams. Seems like the Dolphins do a good job of getting up for the big games.If the books liked the Bills, I think this line is BUF -3.5. Public will be all over the Bills at +1.

Arizona going to Carolina where the Panthers have the second best pass defense in the league. Only thing that gives me pause is the Cards have had a bye week. Not sure what to make of that.
Click to expand...

Those are the first two plays that came to mind for me as well.
 
I know we hashed this already but Zona looked pretty soft on offense IMO at home vs Dallas and @ Car is a tougher task . Look at Zona 1st H vs Dallas terrible then as we said the 2nd H was all good plays by Zona to shift momentum. Hightower and Breaston with big 1st down plays and Fitz with the nifty TD catch and jump ball down field . Think Zona was a Fg @ NYJ and well we saw what happened vs a decent defense --turnover city and same deal @ Wash who forced some key turnovers as well ....Zona mistake prone IMO and even if they get Boldin back think Car smacks them in the mouth abut . Saints are at least as good as Zona and IMO better and look at that game as well.

Miami is one of my favorite games as well and probably agree these two stand out the most although I have a few others in mind as well ....:cheers:
 
hm didnt get a chance to really look at boxscores/injuries yet this week which is likely why my lines are so off. good lookin at SN.

I still think the Jax/Pitt lines are a bit soft altho inuries could play a part as I've havnt looked much into it yet. Not much respect for NFC east as besides beatiung up on eachother and looking good in those wins, havnt seen much from the 4 NFC eastern teams. thus: clevelands win over NYG- altho impressive, it was their superbowl. and their cover last week over Wash- completely unimpressed and it just showed me how weak wash really is. Jax off a bye imo should be able to take. Not sure if I'd put Wash over Jacksonville
 
orange&white said:
You like the Vikings better than the Jaguars and @ Ravens? I think the Texans are around the same level as the Vikings. Colts aren't as good as the Jags imo. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not as high on the Colts and Vikings as you are I guess.
Click to expand...

Colts definitely better then the Ravens and well Tenny lost at Balt but was handed a gift . They beat Jags in week 1 and dont think either Jax RB was anywhere near 100% in that game which basically means there offense was David Garrard and no WRs to throw to at that point . About the lowest point you will see Jax IMO in 2008. Jax won a close one @ indy and historically play Indy tight . Would say at best they are equal but would say Indy ceiling is much higher when healthy .

Colts have played a real tough schedule with tons of injuries . Performance doesnt matter much without taking the line into account IMO.

Colts played w/o Addai yesterday and really 2 pick 6s skew that game and GB was probably one of more heavier played sides at +3 and +3.5 . I dont think Tenny is better then GB so cant see how one week the line fluctuates so much . They had to play the Bears in the opene with a banged up OL and peyton not getting any preseason work off 2 knee surgeries . HArrison also returned from surgery . After that Dallas Clark missed the Minny game and the OL was further mangled . Then they lose Bob Sanders on defense after that . So this is a watered down version of the Colts IMO and still given the correct situation like NE today they are dangerous as any team in the league when it all clicks .

Vikes are probably better then Jax if Minny was an AFC team . Jax has no defense to speak of with some injry issues and defections compared to previous years . Minny is not playing its best football and has a few injury issues as well and losing Henderson defense has taken its toll IMO.

I dont think Tenny got the best version of Jax and while the beat Minny at home it was also a very sloppy Minny effort giving short fields to tenny. Its what keeps the Vikes from being an upper level team now they just are a solid one .

Even yesterdays Tenny win was far from impressive they busted 2 long runs in a 20-0 game with 6 to play . They kicked a 46 and 49 yd FG and had a TD drive from midfield. Game @ Cincy they had a late punt block . Houston had so many opps to score on them but didnt .

In the overall scheme of things one thing is clear last week MEANS nothing in 2008 . Teams have not played consistently week to week.
Tenny deserves credit for there season but they have had everything line up perfectly IMo.

The Texans ? I can assure Minny would be more then -3 at home vs Houston . Houston is the extreme opposite of Tenny as they look good losing while Tenny wins ugly .

Maybe your not high on the Colts and I sure faded the heck out of them yesterday but in fairness they were 3 pt favs at one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Titans would not be -3 @ GB as they closed closer to -1.5 @ Balt ......:cheers:
 
SF_capper said:
hm didnt get a chance to really look at boxscores/injuries yet this week which is likely why my lines are so off. good lookin at SN.

I still think the Jax/Pitt lines are a bit soft altho inuries could play a part as I've havnt looked much into it yet. Not much respect for NFC east as besides beatiung up on eachother and looking good in those wins, havnt seen much from the 4 NFC eastern teams. thus: clevelands win over NYG- altho impressive, it was their superbowl. and their cover last week over Wash- completely unimpressed and it just showed me how weak wash really is. Jax off a bye imo should be able to take. Not sure if I'd put Wash over Jacksonville
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I agree mostly with Pitt . Would say you have to respect Wash little mini win streak as jax has lost to Buffalo , tenny and Pitt with a close one or two as well . I cant say Jax is better but would meet you halfway and say they are very close to equal.

I think what you miss though with CLe is while I dont agree it was the SB they were in the prefect spot to get smoked off a MNF upset playing a team who ost SU at home as DD favs . However it was a competitive game and yes Cle pulled out the backdoor cover but they were killed by drops that game. I do think Wash defense is ALOT better then Jax especially if they remain shorthanded in the secondary .

I lean strongly to Pitt but Cle is still under the radar as I think they could easily win SU and will play the ML depending on how it shakes out injury wise. Brwons just making up for lost time IMO :cheers:

 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I know a guy and he told me that the ravens are going to give the raiders all kinds of trouble and win easily.
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Young Oak team off a hard fought win having to travel and face on of the NFLs tougher defenses wreaks of trouble . Just a matter of figuring how accurate a TD line is but seems fair on the surface . Think 20-10 is possible here would lean Oak 1st H but they should ware down in the 2nd H IMO ....:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Colts definitely better then the Ravens and well Tenny lost at Balt but was handed a gift . They beat Jags in week 1 and dont think either Jax RB was anywhere near 100% in that game which basically means there offense was David Garrard and no WRs to throw to at that point . About the lowest point you will see Jax IMO in 2008. Jax won a close one @ indy and historically play Indy tight . Would say at best they are equal but would say Indy ceiling is much higher when healthy .

Colts have played a real tough schedule with tons of injuries . Performance doesnt matter much without taking the line into account IMO.

Colts played w/o Addai yesterday and really 2 pick 6s skew that game and GB was probably one of more heavier played sides at +3 and +3.5 . I dont think Tenny is better then GB so cant see how one week the line fluctuates so much . They had to play the Bears in the opene with a banged up OL and peyton not getting any preseason work off 2 knee surgeries . HArrison also returned from surgery . After that Dallas Clark missed the Minny game and the OL was further mangled . Then they lose Bob Sanders on defense after that . So this is a watered down version of the Colts IMO and still given the correct situation like NE today they are dangerous as any team in the league when it all clicks .

Vikes are probably better then Jax if Minny was an AFC team . Jax has no defense to speak of with some injry issues and defections compared to previous years . Minny is not playing its best football and has a few injury issues as well and losing Henderson defense has taken its toll IMO.

I dont think Tenny got the best version of Jax and while the beat Minny at home it was also a very sloppy Minny effort giving short fields to tenny. Its what keeps the Vikes from being an upper level team now they just are a solid one .

Even yesterdays Tenny win was far from impressive they busted 2 long runs in a 20-0 game with 6 to play . They kicked a 46 and 49 yd FG and had a TD drive from midfield. Game @ Cincy they had a late punt block . Houston had so many opps to score on them but didnt .

In the overall scheme of things one thing is clear last week MEANS nothing in 2008 . Teams have not played consistently week to week.
Tenny deserves credit for there season but they have had everything line up perfectly IMo.

The Texans ? I can assure Minny would be more then -3 at home vs Houston . Houston is the extreme opposite of Tenny as they look good losing while Tenny wins ugly .

Maybe your not high on the Colts and I sure faded the heck out of them yesterday but in fairness they were 3 pt favs at one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Titans would not be -3 @ GB as they closed closer to -1.5 @ Balt ......:cheers:
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I'm not talking as much about lines or the Colts ceiling. I'm looking at the current Colts and they just don't look good to me. I faded them yesterday as well. A lot of it is injuries, but Jacksonville has a ton of injuries as well. If both were healthy I think Jacksonville is the better team, and I think the hurt versions are about even. The lowest point of the year for Jacksonville was vs Buffalo after getting beat up by the Titans and had already had preseason injuries.

Maybe I'm biased since I'm a Titans fan, but there is a reason the Titans have covered more than any NFL team the past 2.5 years (25-13). As far as teams screwing up helping the Titans win games, isn't that the way most sporting events go? Way more games are lost than they are won, even in the professional level. The team that makes the fewest mistakes generally wins. That is what makes the Titans such a good team. Part of the reason teams make so many mistakes against them is because their defense is so good. All I know is that in the NFL almost anyone can beat anyone any given week (maybe not the Bengals, Chiefs, or Lions) and the Giants opponents only have 12 combined wins, and the Steelers 13. People can complain about strength of schedule all they want but part of the reason is because the Titans, Steelers, and Giants have given their opponents 16 losses. I just don't buy into the strength of schedule argument much in the NFL like I do college.
 
nice thoughts nut. I actually am leaning a bit toward Indi now. Indi's offense seems to have gotten into a flow since injuries had them beginning of the yr. Also, possibly their season here as a loss puts them 3-4 and tennesee 7-0, almost guarunteeing indi out of the playoffs. This is also a huge game for tennesee to extend its winning streak, and essentially 'show the world' their legitimacy on national tv. Also, as far as matchups dunno how indi finds a way to stop the run/establish the run game in this one. Might actually sit this one out- sadly and hope for something to jump out at HT

As far as jacksonville- the oline is getting healthier, but matt jones is suspended i think. completely not sold on cleveland as their only TD was when Portis fumbled it on the 26 and let cleveland get a 26-yrd field. For a team that had drives that began at: wash's 46, Wash's 45, Their own 44, and wash's 29, to only get 11 pts is weak. Also considering they had no turnovers, just do not think cleveland will be blessed with nice fields and no turnovers.
 
orange&white said:
I'm not talking as much about lines or the Colts ceiling. I'm looking at the current Colts and they just don't look good to me. I faded them yesterday as well. A lot of it is injuries, but Jacksonville has a ton of injuries as well. If both were healthy I think Jacksonville is the better team, and I think the hurt versions are about even. The lowest point of the year for Jacksonville was vs Buffalo after getting beat up by the Titans and had already had preseason injuries.

Maybe I'm biased since I'm a Titans fan, but there is a reason the Titans have covered more than any NFL team the past 2.5 years (25-13). As far as teams screwing up helping the Titans win games, isn't that the way most sporting events go? Way more games are lost than they are won, even in the professional level. The team that makes the fewest mistakes generally wins. That is what makes the Titans such a good team. Part of the reason teams make so many mistakes against them is because their defense is so good. All I know is that in the NFL almost anyone can beat anyone any given week (maybe not the Bengals, Chiefs, or Lions) and the Giants opponents only have 12 combined wins, and the Steelers 13. People can complain about strength of schedule all they want but part of the reason is because the Titans, Steelers, and Giants have given their opponents 16 losses. I just don't buy into the strength of schedule argument much in the NFL like I do college.
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Nice post .

Its just hard to tell with Indy and I am believer in the line dictating results . Cheap lines always see lopsided results just as bad over infalted lines see lopsided results .

So Colts are cheap at home to the Ravens and embarrass them but also Balt was off a heartbreaking loss to Tenny at home . So cheap line and flat spot for a team . Then they go to GB who I think lost to ATL last game at home and is somehow a FG fav? Makes no sense.

I think Addai is clearly an important factor . Obviously as there OL issues but you also have to figure Peyton Manning will progress as the season goes on .How many QBs can not take a snap the entire preseason and look even remotely capable of leading an offense.

I just cant agree with Jax. They are in my opinion an 8-8 team maybe 9-7 nothing better . They are basically a tad better then the Bills so that would not qualify as a low point for me . I dont see how Jax was favored in Tenny to start the season that made no sense to me and thought Tenny should have been -3. Jax can be thrown on and always was an issue but there run defense is no longer at the standard it was for a few seasons . They have no key WR to worry about and granted Matt Jones and Mike Walker have done well at times they are not envoking visions of future ProBowls. Jags own 3 pt wins 2pt win and TD win basically stealing all 3 games even the Den one IMO to a degree . Indy has been flawed and stolen games as well but @ Minny and @ Houston . If Indy just holds on for the last 60 seconds they beat Jax as well .

With Tenny I agree there is always success for teams who play fundamental ball . Thats what I admire about Tenny they dont beat themselves but beating flawed offenses is exactly what that team matches up perfectly against . So situationally they are getting the best of it each week IMO. I simply think tenny is a good team that you have to watch out for but they are far from great IMO .

Not interested in strength of schedule much either but how teams match up (good defense vs weak offense or weak defense vs good offense ). The way I see it Tenny is a very good defense BUT they faced a JAX offense that was broke and were home still winning only 17-10 , they faced a Bengal offense that was broke see Balt game stats and win 24-7 but also get a late TD on punt block , both Houston and Minny were decent wins but both opposing offenses had success IMO moving the vball vs that Tenny defense and a few less miscues especially in the Vikes game maybe changes that outcome, @ Balt they had 70 yards of offense till late 3rd Q when they started the FG drive which got them near 150 yds of offense and the last drive doesnt happen without the 3rd down penalty on Collins . Even KC is just 20-0 with 5:30 to play .....

Mix in SD , NO , @Arizona games like that and see how Tenny does . If they pass those tests I would give them more credit . Till now they are not passing easy tests with flying colors IMO .

It's only my opinion so it is what is but its just my take on the situation . The NFL is watered down in 2008 and anything can happen . The AFC is weak as hell IMO and Tennys opponents are 12-26 in the big scheme of things Tenny is much better prepared and coached (fundamentally sound) but not sure how much different they are from Wash or Philly . Put Tenny in Wash and Philly schedule and what happens ? Part of its is Tenny's defense is very good but its not like an all time great unit IMO like Balt was a few seasons back. They are playing overmatched teams each week ..
Garrard , Palmer . Schaub , Frerrotte , Flacco and Croyle arent exactly invoking greatness . Some better then others and some like Palmer living of past success for a few years now ......when you start facing the upperhalf of QBs not the bottom half then my opinion may change ....

It will be an interesting game and still think if Tenny wins they do so by 3 pts . The Titans at home are no better then GB at Lambeau IMO . Its possible that Sanders and the Hayden-CB come back here and Addai is a possibility since he wanted to play at GB and it seemed like it was possible .

I like your other Tenny team more this week catching a TD then the NFL version...:shake:


 
ManchesterUk said:
Nut,careful with that saints/chargers total pal.
Remember the field last year !!
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Very good point . Do you think though the NFL will allow that embarrassment again ? Something to watch for no doubt . I dont play totals till Sunday anyway . Good point for us to keep in mind ...:shake:
 
SF_capper said:
nice thoughts nut. I actually am leaning a bit toward Indi now. Indi's offense seems to have gotten into a flow since injuries had them beginning of the yr. Also, possibly their season here as a loss puts them 3-4 and tennesee 7-0, almost guarunteeing indi out of the playoffs. This is also a huge game for tennesee to extend its winning streak, and essentially 'show the world' their legitimacy on national tv. Also, as far as matchups dunno how indi finds a way to stop the run/establish the run game in this one. Might actually sit this one out- sadly and hope for something to jump out at HT

As far as jacksonville- the oline is getting healthier, but matt jones is suspended i think. completely not sold on cleveland as their only TD was when Portis fumbled it on the 26 and let cleveland get a 26-yrd field. For a team that had drives that began at: wash's 46, Wash's 45, Their own 44, and wash's 29, to only get 11 pts is weak. Also considering they had no turnovers, just do not think cleveland will be blessed with nice fields and no turnovers.
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All about injuries each week which I guess is why I wait so long to decide on certain games . Indy could have Addai , Sanders and Hayden there injured CB back .

Cle wsnt impressive persay @ Wash but think BroadwayJoe said they had a ton of drops in that one as well . The "impressive" part to me was they didnt not get blown out when they could have situationally . Thats a good sign to me like when a team has a great spot to blwo some one out and doesnt that a real huge negative to me as well . I am not much worries so much about the Jax injuries on offense as there defense . I guess I just disagree on how good this team is . I could be wrong but I think a TD is to much . The Skins defense has played like a Top 10 unit IMO and is much better then what Jax has . :cheers:
 
Would say my 6 strongest leans ATS are :

Philly , Det (+ML) , Carolina , Miami , Pitt and Indy .

Not deep into totals but I think if Indys defense is healthy would lean UNDER 42 . Although 43 would be great 23-20 game...
 
If it rains over the weekend theres nothing they can do about it,the pitch(it is a pitch :o ) will be shitty like last year.Its been v wet here(im 180 miles north of London),will keep you informed buddy.
 
Nut, You like Detroit ML? This is making me flash back to the Giants-Cleveland game. I see something within my info that is very similar in these 2 games.
 
SportsNut said:
Nice post .

Its just hard to tell with Indy and I am believer in the line dictating results . Cheap lines always see lopsided results just as bad over infalted lines see lopsided results .

So Colts are cheap at home to the Ravens and embarrass them but also Balt was off a heartbreaking loss to Tenny at home . So cheap line and flat spot for a team . Then they go to GB who I think lost to ATL last game at home and is somehow a FG fav? Makes no sense.

I think Addai is clearly an important factor . Obviously as there OL issues but you also have to figure Peyton Manning will progress as the season goes on .How many QBs can not take a snap the entire preseason and look even remotely capable of leading an offense.

I just cant agree with Jax. They are in my opinion an 8-8 team maybe 9-7 nothing better . They are basically a tad better then the Bills so that would not qualify as a low point for me . I dont see how Jax was favored in Tenny to start the season that made no sense to me and thought Tenny should have been -3. Jax can be thrown on and always was an issue but there run defense is no longer at the standard it was for a few seasons . They have no key WR to worry about and granted Matt Jones and Mike Walker have done well at times they are not envoking visions of future ProBowls. Jags own 3 pt wins 2pt win and TD win basically stealing all 3 games even the Den one IMO to a degree . Indy has been flawed and stolen games as well but @ Minny and @ Houston . If Indy just holds on for the last 60 seconds they beat Jax as well .

With Tenny I agree there is always success for teams who play fundamental ball . Thats what I admire about Tenny they dont beat themselves but beating flawed offenses is exactly what that team matches up perfectly against . So situationally they are getting the best of it each week IMO. I simply think tenny is a good team that you have to watch out for but they are far from great IMO .

Not interested in strength of schedule much either but how teams match up (good defense vs weak offense or weak defense vs good offense ). The way I see it Tenny is a very good defense BUT they faced a JAX offense that was broke and were home still winning only 17-10 , they faced a Bengal offense that was broke see Balt game stats and win 24-7 but also get a late TD on punt block , both Houston and Minny were decent wins but both opposing offenses had success IMO moving the vball vs that Tenny defense and a few less miscues especially in the Vikes game maybe changes that outcome, @ Balt they had 70 yards of offense till late 3rd Q when they started the FG drive which got them near 150 yds of offense and the last drive doesnt happen without the 3rd down penalty on Collins . Even KC is just 20-0 with 5:30 to play .....

Mix in SD , NO , @Arizona games like that and see how Tenny does . If they pass those tests I would give them more credit . Till now they are not passing easy tests with flying colors IMO .

It's only my opinion so it is what is but its just my take on the situation . The NFL is watered down in 2008 and anything can happen . The AFC is weak as hell IMO and Tennys opponents are 12-26 in the big scheme of things Tenny is much better prepared and coached (fundamentally sound) but not sure how much different they are from Wash or Philly . Put Tenny in Wash and Philly schedule and what happens ? Part of its is Tenny's defense is very good but its not like an all time great unit IMO like Balt was a few seasons back. They are playing overmatched teams each week ..
Garrard , Palmer . Schaub , Frerrotte , Flacco and Croyle arent exactly invoking greatness . Some better then others and some like Palmer living of past success for a few years now ......when you start facing the upperhalf of QBs not the bottom half then my opinion may change ....

It will be an interesting game and still think if Tenny wins they do so by 3 pts . The Titans at home are no better then GB at Lambeau IMO . Its possible that Sanders and the Hayden-CB come back here and Addai is a possibility since he wanted to play at GB and it seemed like it was possible .

I like your other Tenny team more this week catching a TD then the NFL version...:shake:
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I agree with almost all this post. NFL has no really good teams this year and it will be interesting to see how it pans out. We know there will be 2 or 3 teams not playing very well right now that will absolutely turn it on the last 8 or 9 games, and go 7-2 or 8-1 down the stretch. I would like to try to indentify those teams now and cash off of them, but its hard to figure anyone out right now.
 
raiders in a bad spot travel wise and off that nice win; but what are the ravens going to do through the air against this raider defense? do they get to 100 yards? does someone really want to lay 20% of the total with a defensive team against a good defense? i wouldn't. despite the spot, i think it's raiders or no play. also, i will probably be playing the UNDER. see a 16-10 type ravens win...

saints/chargers...this game sets up beautifully to an under imo. two bad defenses, but two teams going all the way to london should result in a lot less offense. without bush the saints shouldn't be as explosive, and what can sd do on the outside ...apart from the pats game, it's been pretty much the same story with them.

do the jets deserve to be 13 pt favs to anyone? imo, fuck no.

dolphins or no play in this rivalry game. buff is a pretty easy team to read, and i believe i've called every one of their games right this year. this is not a good spot for them...i expect miami to get another big win.

who wants to lay 7 on a short week off a dominating win vs a very overrated team? who wants to chase their rams losses? not me; i've been on the rams the last two weeks (spread and ml) and will be on them again. this defense matches up poorly to what the rams can do offensively, and the rams defense showed a pulse. my feeling is that a lot of people will wait for the rams to fall on their face and they will keep waiting. in the dallas team win total discussion, i said that dallas would lose to ariz and the rams, so the win didn't surprise me. they are not nearly as bad as they showed the first few games. public perception takes a 180 degree turnaround virtually every week with this pats team...it's really hilarious.

was wrong last week about car, but you gotta think their talent catches up with them sooner or later....i see cards as the better team here, and even though it's a spot they play horrible in with the east coast early start, ariz is still tempting to me...number is just off. car continues to have favorable things happen in games to make their wins look a lot better than they are

another desperate spot for my brownies. i lost fading them in the first half last sunday (son of a bitch i can't believe the skins couldn't get it in the endzone), but not this time. another must win and i think another win.

steelers getting a short number at home always looks like a winning recipe, but i highly doubt that the giants will let themselves get embarassed by an afc north team again, and there is a whole lot of that steelers secondary that they can exploit. on the other side of the ball, i don't know how that oline is going to protect ben long enough for pitt's offense to be effective. if you've been watching the steelers, you've noticed how much this guy has done...ALWAYS seems to make that crucial throw under pressure on some sort of squirm or on a weird angle. my estimation is that he won't be as lucky this week. i lean heavily on the gmen

seahawks/niners - you've got balls to play the hawks right now...

bengals/texans - your guess is better than mine here...

wash/det - det or no play...not a believer in the playcalling of zorn at all...tries to outthink himself way too much imo

atl/phil - very accurately set line imo...not much value on either side; gun to my head i'd take the points; because as i said before - i think that whole division is pretty overrated right now

tb/dal - when has tb ever been a very good team on the road? they don't score enough points on the road for me to back them here and how can you say the value would be on them here after the last couple of weeks? likely a no play, but i'd bet the boys

indy/tenn - don't like backing indy on grass, but may have to make an exception here...another desperate spot (last time i backed them was vs balt)...and tenn is the type of team that will struggle if the colts can jump out early...what would this line have been week 1? a pkem? colts -2.5? i don't know...maybe. i just find it hard to see titans value here...


BOL fellas
 
wiseplayer said:
Nut, You like Detroit ML? This is making me flash back to the Giants-Cleveland game. I see something within my info that is very similar in these 2 games.
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From a situational standpoint I like how it lines up . Wash was in a great spot to put abit of a hurt on a team with CLE on a short week traveling off a pretty big win . Some say it was CLE's SB and I dont agree with that extreme but significant game for them. Cle had alot of droppoff's and Wash really battled to win that game . They went up 14-3 at one point but it was a very competitive game . Det was the opposite end of the spectrum . Playing B2B road games off a tough loss they had every reason to get blwon out . They were early but once they got some momentum on there side which happened when Houston fumbled inside the DET 5 they ran with it . They had little time before half but managed to hita 58yd pass to CJ right before half which I knew as Houston backer was bad news. They score after the half to make it 21-10 again its a ball game . Now to Hous credit they went down and scored to get up 28-10 late 3rd Q. Still they were backed up and found CJ deep again a 96 yd TD . Now I view long TDs as flukish except here. We werent sure if Dan O could hit the long ball and he did it twice on the road . We also the DET HC say its something obviously they need to try more . This alone will open the DET offense some IMO just the simple threat . The threat was always there in a sense but seeing DET execute twice will have that in Wash mind .

So I truly believe that DET has heart it hasnt always shown on the field and I dont know what the reasoning is . This DET team despite the change in QB still was a team with very high expectations entering in 2008 and the QB play isnt very wide in terms of margin like Cincy or Sea situations IMO.

That sloppiness that alluded Wash in its 4 game streak showed its face obviously in the Rams again . One would expect it be fixed in the next game IF WASH was truly as good as the previous 4 games . It wasnt IMO.

Skins miss a 35 yd FG before half in a 0-0 game .

After finally scoring a TD to go up 7-0 thanks partly to nice starting field position at there own 38 they immediately allow CLE to answer but hold them to a FG. Like in baseball when you score you want to shut down the opposition enxt half inning same deal in foots as you want to keep the opponent off the board on the ensuing drive IMO.

Again thanks to great field position Wash score started at Cle 49 only took 3 plays . Again Wash allowed Cle to drive all the way down field but stopped them at the 1yd line . I fault this to CLE though more then Wash defense getting credited. The play calling was terrible . Stuffed on 1st down from teh 1yd line , then they throw a pass for 2 yds loss to Ali , then Inc , then inc ...what happened to running the ball ?? or the TE's? Steve Heiden anyone ?

So 14-3 rally thwarted . Portis breaks free vs I am a sure a tired and dejected Cle defense for 20 yards but fumbles . Cle gets a break no doubt but IMO am indication of sloppy play .

This time Cle does punch it from the 1 yd line and worse gets the 2 pt conversion .

Now 2:30 to play. Clearly Wash must get a 1st down but CLE holds them a team on short week involved in another close games holds vs a team off a SU loss to one of the worst NFL teams at that point the previous week. Then Cle gets the ball and manages to get back into FG range but Dawson missed frm 54yds . Which I think Cle again fucked up run the ball once maybe you suprise Wash and get 5 yards make it a more manageable FG attempt. They had 1st and 10 from the 36 with 46 seconds left and had 3 incs .....You risk losing a down but have to feel you need to get it under 50 yards to have a strong chance at connecting . Dawson is very good career wise from 50+ at 70% (7/10) before the attempt BUT Dawson has even attempted a 40 yarder all season just one miss on a 50+ kick. Dawsons only 50yarder last year was from 51 and was that crazy kick @ Balt then had to be reviewed and capped a huge comeback. Which funny his previous 50+ yder ws 51 yds @ Balt the season before . Want to laugh ? No attempts in 2005 from 50+ but in 04 he hit a 50+ kick @ Balt ! That was from 50yds !. So back in 02-03 Dawson was 4-5 from 50+ but last few years ( 5 seasons) he had hit 3 but all @ Balt with the longest being 51 yds . So while its look back comments I think Cle had to emphasize getting at least 5 yards more on that last set of plays ..typical CLE though ..

So really Wash was very fortunate to win that game in a spot where they should really be thriving IMO...

Now I read how Wash is banged up with as many as 8 players dealing with injuries and basically saying the Week 10 Bye cant come soon enough IMO.


“We’re wearing down a little bit,” said coach Jim Zorn, whose 5-2 Redskins still have to visit Detroit and play host to Pittsburgh before they get to their Week 10 bye.

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“We’re going through a long road,” said quarterback Jason Campbell, who tweaked a groin in the first quarter of Sunday’s 14-11 victory over Cleveland but didn’t miss any time and will start against the Lions. “We had five preseason games, and now we’re seven games into the season and (there are) two weeks more until our bye week. You’re talking 14 games straight before we even have a break. A lot of times you’re mentally tired as well as physically. We have to push through these next two weeks.”

Springs @ CB looks out for sure this week. Carlos Rogers the other starting CB has a calf issue he is playing through . Fred Smoot playing with a strained groin in Springs spot . Safety Chris Horton has a bad ankle. Also Qb Jason Capbell tweaked his groin in the 1st H vs Cle.

End Jason Taylor (calf), offensive tackle Chris Samuels(knee), guard Pete Kendall (throat), running back Clinton Portis(hip, ankle, foot, shin, back) and tight end Todd Yoder (hamstring) are all beat up, too, but should be ready for the Lions. Zorn doesn’t think he can keep defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin (shoulder) out either.

“He’s hurt, he really is,” Zorn said. “I may demand (that he take the game off) just to give him a breather, but I’m going to wait and see what he says, see what the doctor say. He wants to be with his guys. He wants to do battle, so it might be hard to keep him out.”

I didnt watch the Skins game and will see if I can find it somewhere online. Broadway Joe said the drops were insane for CLE and I believe him because that has plagued them all year . So despite all those DA incompletions i think its mostly on the WRs and he was sacked only once.

I think Wash offense has issues again . No pts in the 1st H and only 14 overall with both coming greatly due to helpful field position . Jamal Lewis seemed to break some nice runs in the 2nd H and if we take out his 3 no gains from teh 1 yd line his per carry avg is very solid.

Wash is a solid team but like Tenny thrive on there defense and there lack of turnovers . Once those problems creeped in there were struggling vs inferior teams like STL and CLE . Mix in the injury factors with Pitt at home on deck before the BYE I see complecancy being a huge issue with them . Looking to survive with a win and be healthy facing Pitt . They have played on NFC East teams on the road so far which carry huge importance and they were dogs in all of them . This is unchartered territory and I would imagine Det would have been about -3 here down to a PKem ig this game was lined before the reg season opened. Though Wash was somewhat inflated early being small dogs at NYG .

Wash hung with NYG but never really threatened and early was nearly blown out . Then @ Dallas that game was a 2pt win and sort of the unraveling of the Boys . The game where barber had like 8-10 carries. Then at Philly think Eagles led 14-0 missed a 50yder that would have made it 17-0 before the end of the 1st Q and then never seemed to recover or Wash woke up but it was all Wash from that point till Eagles last drive....


The Lions are certain their problem is not effort. They’re trying hard. Marinelli worries they’re trying too hard. “I think they’re really pressing,” Marinelli said. “I’m missing something for them to get it done. If they’re tight, I’ve got to find a way to loosen them up.” But what is Marinelli going to do? He has already tried little things like playing music during stretching to pump some energy into practice, and he’s no comedian. “My personality is that,” Marinelli said, holding out a clenched fist and staring at it, “and when it comes out to the end of the day, I can make a joke and it’s not a funny joke. That’s me. But I just keep staying at it and keep driving the same thing home until I get it, and I haven’t been able to get it yet.”


Special Teams: B-plus—Kicker Jason Hanson nailed two 54-yard field goals, punter Nick Harris had a net average of 50.3 yards, and the coverage units didn’t allow the Texans’ dangerous return men anything. But the Lions continue to get nothing out of their return game, and the poor field position doesn’t help their struggling offense.

I think Special Teams more on the kick side is going to be a huge help for DET here . Hanson has a big leg and can hit those 50 something yarders which are important vs solid defenses IMO . Also Det doing well in the punt side of it is also helpful because they maximize putting Wash in bad field position and they are not a prolofic offense so can struggle when backed up . On the flip Wash cut its kicker and signed form Hawk Placeimeir or whatever his name is and he was so-so really not any better . Also though he is no holding for Suisham and wonder if that hurts the FG kicker . Did it come into play on the miss before half his only attempt and avery makeable 36 yder ? Another reason I would like to watch this game.

Also feel that DET captured momentum when CJ caught the Hail Mary before half but think it also turned on the light bulb for teh coaching staff remonding them what they need to know on offense . Kevin Smith has busted some nice size runs last few weeks and Jamal Lewis did the same vs Wash in the 2nd H being Smith will now be home and Wash defense is now away think that increases the likelyhood he can bust a few nice size runs maybe even a real big one for a long TD . cautious about DET losing safety Smith but optomistic that Travis Fisher returns and ddoes DT Darby.....

I also feel this is more of the winnable games left on DET schedule who play @ CHI after this...

Just feel like Wash is slipping back and DET is making positive steps forward . Skins still havent won by more then a TD this year either ....

Really like them + the points see some +7.5 and others at +9 crazy juice . Expect that I get near +280 or better on the ML and thats alot of value in my book for a game that DET gas about a 50-50 chance of winning .

I dont think its something I can piece together with stats or data just something I see performance wise to make me think DET continues to impress and Wash continues this regression that started at home vs STL and places them on the road for the 1st time in this down pattern . I dont see this like NYG @ CLE but more like my outside the box call on KC winning SU vs DEN earlier this year . An overvalued team making mistakes laying alot of points on the road when home field is off great value IMO . Skins regressed at home now travel while DET IMO improved on the road and now return home ....hungry to get a WIN team playing a Wash team who appears looking to coast and survive at DET on the surface especially IMO with a physical Pitt defense awaiting them.

:cheers:

























 
orange&white said:
I agree with almost all this post. NFL has no really good teams this year and it will be interesting to see how it pans out. We know there will be 2 or 3 teams not playing very well right now that will absolutely turn it on the last 8 or 9 games, and go 7-2 or 8-1 down the stretch. I would like to try to indentify those teams now and cash off of them, but its hard to figure anyone out right now.
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I think Depth has really been eroded in past seasons thanks to skyrocketing salaries making most teams go with experience vets who come cheap that are a shell of themselves Or the younger guys who show promise that come with low price tags but dont have alot of game experience or maybe experience in that particular system. So the rash of injuries is really killing teams. The upper level teams that suffer them get knocked from very good to more like good level . Then the medicore teams like Cincy or Sea are decimated by losing there QBs and some other players .

SD Indy NE Dal GB were 5 of the Top teams coming in and the injuries they have suffered have been at all key spots and just decimated what they look like . GB's defense , Dallas secondary and now Romo , NE from Brady to Harrison and every RB inbewteen plus some OL players , Colts we ran through but every key player on offense minus Reggie Wayne including the OL and some defensive players DTs and CBs plus 2007 defensive player of teh year Sanders , mostly Merriman knocking the defense back from top 10 unit to more "upper" middle of the road as in solid but spectular and then Chambers recently plus its best offensive weapons LT and Gates playing at less then 100% all year .....

NYG lost some key players on defense bewteen retirement , FA and injury , now has 2 hurt starting linebackers on top of that plus Plax suddenly becoming a headache .

Bills in recent weeks have seen there defense really get banged up especialy in teh secondary and saw there starting Qb get a bad concussion .

Steelers - Big Ben banged up , Willie Parker missing a few games the highly touted Mendehall gets hurt 1st game as his replacement , the defense with some injuries plus McFadden and troy concussed now . The OL ....

Jags - OL , RB out of camp were banged up and the secondary in recent weeks after some FA defections...

Browns - missed a vet OL till NYG , WR issues , Cribbs , the defense , Stallworth and JJ

Bengals - lose Carson Plamer and recent season put a new OL in front of him and no proven RB ...makes and 7-9 to 9-7 team alot worse ...

Broncos - losing WRs and having the others outside of Marshall banged up , Cutler now , the defense especially with the CBs yesterday

KC- Cant find a QB to finish a game and Crolye and Huard had questions to begin with a 4 or 5 win team made into a welcome mat to be steeped on...

Eagles- Westbrook being absent at all is a major loss that cripples the offense , plus Wrs like Reggie Brown and TE Lj Smith think the defense has survived to date

Bears - secondary especially at CB really decimated when your top 3 options are OUT . Losing Lloyd hurts more then it should because lack of depth at that spot and aging vets relied on . At lest Lloyd is untapped potential although that was 5 seasons ago....

Vikes- scuffled some losing Ej Henderson , not having Madieu healthy yet at safety , think CBs have been banged up , AP some nicks that were somewhat serious . Tavaris never really getting a preseason , the WRs Rice and berrian seem to be G/T decisions each week....

Saints- decimated a questionable defense to begin with ..lost a young CB for the season while the others have been banged up Yag and McKenzie , hurt at DT badly and Fujita absent for a time at LB with a special teamer in his spot , now Bush after Deuce finally recovered enough to play a significant role , COlston and Patten ....Shockey

SF- all under the radar injuries but really hurt there secondary and OL IMO as that area has seen dropoff in plays last month IMO . Manny Lawson being a non factor after previous injury and hurt again .

Sea- Qb and WR decimated all season . Think KC an dthem only teams to start 3rd string QBs . Some defense players hurt as well but the lack of offense has killed them and mix in Maurice Morris....








So far fortunate :
Jets but they were pretty bad last year and have to integrate a new OL and QB who is learning a different system for the 1st team in a real long time . Hard to teach an dold dog new tricks ? Expectations to high IMO .

Miami - 1 win tam last year alot of improvement but again 1 win team in 2007

Ravens - bad team in 07 at least have a healthy defense for the most part but breaking in a young QB and started with a fairly tough schedule. McGahee has been hurt but luckily they have depth at RB..

Titans -outside of VY the seemed to have held up well from what I recall some injuries but mostly minor game to game types...throw in Washington into this discussion until recently ....

Texans - Minor ones at QB and CB not having Robinson till recently but again a medicore at team at best team to start

Det- relatively healthy but lost starting QB Kitna ...but biggest underacheiver to date

TB- relatively healthy but Garcia and Galloway with a banged up Brooks were soem key players

Car- relatively Healthy but some OL issues and Smith suspended 2 games

Atl-relatively healthy to date especially injury prone guys like Abraham and Brooking

Zona- fairly healthy at most key spots outside of Boldin lately but had dept atthat spot though losing Berry hurt ...

Rams - borderline healthy mostly tough to judge with them since it appears there effort was lacking . truth is CB has been a decimate spot and Avery started hurt while Holt came off injury . Bennett lost early and McMichael lost for teh season as well . Now Pace hurt. They probably qualify now though for a banged up team as Little also missed time . I just hate they overcome it on Sunday so I wonder whatto grade them?

At this point the NFL may have to look at preseason football to see if its to much or not enough meaning it is utilized correctly or holding back players leading to more injuries down the road . Plus strength and condition programs need to be looked at . Possibly more flexibility training needed especially when I see Champ Bailey pull up a limp with look to be a groin issue and then when he takes his helmut off you know the guy is diesel and possibly to muscular for a CB .....

Injury analysis very important in 2008 week to week . Suspensions on the rise as well it seems ....:shake:




























 
SportsNut said:
Would say my 6 strongest leans ATS are :

Philly , Det (+ML) , Carolina , Miami , Pitt and Indy .

Not deep into totals but I think if Indys defense is healthy would lean UNDER 42 . Although 43 would be great 23-20 game...
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Well I sure hope this Week (8) is a positive one for you SN....as I second just about every one of these leans.

Philly - good spot, rested after the by. Agree w/ your defensive assessment.

Det - not too sure about the ML, but love the points. Skins -9 road chalk....whhaaatt??? This is insanity. Lions aren't a good team by any stretch but they have grit. I do see this game coming down to the last possession.

Carolina - I like, just based on the evidence we have about Arizona on the road particularly. However, I am a little skecpitcal on which Carolina team shows up this Sunday. They to me are one of the Jekyll and Hyde stories of the NFL this year.

Miami - just like their spot....looks like lots of early action on the Buffs and bad spot for the Bills too IMO....due for a letdown off of that big win at home.

Pitt - this is the one I am a little leary about. Still have to look a bit further. The G-Men got their wake-up call against the Brownies a couple weeks back. Still think they are one of the better teams in the entire NFC and are quite capable of winning every game they don't throw away themselves. Pitt very tough to read IMO...never know which team of theirs is gonna show up either. It took them deep into the second half of last weeks games to finally beat up on a bad Bengals team. Not really sure I like their spot this week yet.

***INDIANAPOLIS COLTS*** 'an_horse''an_horse''an_horse'- Game of the week here for me, and I will admit: a totally biased assessment on my part.
All I can say is....the Colts as a doggie.....thank you very much LV. Now, I'll just sit back and cross my fingers. :popcorn:

My other leans include...Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincinnati (really like the Texans this year, especially as a dog - NO chance w/ chalk like this, as bad as the Bengali Kittens are.) and SD/NO OVER.

BOL this week gents.

:cheers:
 
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Injury analysis very important in 2008 week to week . Suspensions on the rise as well it seems ....:shake:
[/quote]

Absolutely huge this year....bang on Nut. :cheers:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
I know a guy and he told me that the ravens are going to give the raiders all kinds of trouble and win easily.
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Don't know who the guy is but I think he might have a winner here.
Like the Ravenous Ravens at home a lot vs. a sub-par Raidas squad off an emotional win. Let-down game IMO for Oakland.
 
Under 35.5 Oakland/Balt

Balt will likely shutout Oakland, and I think a mixture of Oakland's defense and Balt's offense not continuing to score could result in a 23-3 game.
 
Be careful here fellas . Last week someone steamed that number from the open and now we see it bumped of 35 to 36 .

Som reasons why the game could me alot higher scoring IMO. The Ravens continued progression on offense. The key to there success is notgetting behind quick and being able to move the ball on the ground consistently. Thomas Jones ran very well on OAK and that was at home now that D travels and faces a trio of tough backs . Flacco avg 10yds per pass attempt on Sunday. Ravens has a pick 6 as part of the 27 but as fumbled on the Miami 2 and stalled for a FG at the Miami 10. Miami had a tough time getting them off the field . I think if we look at Balthome games we see alot of drives where they moved the ball to say midfield maybe to theopponents 45-40 and punt vs lesser defenses as the year progresses those drives should continue rather then stall and settle for a punt . Now granted passes to his RBs then went 35 and 40yards were largely responsible BUT BALT hasnt been a team who threw to its backs alot either so its a new wrinkle possibly .

vs Tenny stalled at the opp 20 and kick a FG , next drive starts at there 11 and go 9 plays and 37 yds before punting , before half go 8 plys 62 yds and settle for FG attempt and miss . The 2nd H 71yd drive for a TD , next drive starts at there 25 but they go 7plays and 31 yds and stall , next drive at there 20 goes 11plays and 43 yds but punts . So despite 10 pts they missed a FG , had a drive stall for a FG rather then a TD , stalled at there own 48 , stalled at Tenny 44 and stalled at Tenny 37 . So its quite possible they get at least FGs out of the 2 last drives vs an inferior defense and possibly more . Mix in a missed FG and settleing for a FG and reasonably that same type game vs a different defense might produce 23 pts or more .

vs Cle alot of people will say it was all DA's fault but I had Balt that day and disagree . Balt did nothing but miss opps that game before DA started messing up .

Opening drive 8plays 56 yds but stall for a FG and miss a 47yder . Stover has struggled unlike years past so cant say FG attempts are near automatic these days although there is always the chance he gets straight . They were 2nd and 3 at the 30 run Rioce twice no gain.

Next drive INT started at there own 20 and were across midfield when the pick happened . Then next drive very similiar as they are just shy of midfield by a few yds and throw an INT . On the 1st pick Balt was 1st and 10 from the 47 of Cle and just converted a 4th and 2 at the midfield so confidence was high to go on 4th and and 2 IMO. The 2nd pick just as bad 1st and 10 from there own 47 . So no telling what would may have happened but they are 15-20 yds with a full set of downs from FG range . Also Flacco was 8-8 for 83 yds minus the INTS on his 10 attempts which ended with the 2nd INT .

So the 2nd H starts with consecutive DA INTs that lead to 2 short fields and 14 Balt points but probably pts they should have had already .

Then in the 4th Q while the game was in hand they also were stopped on downs after a 14ply 51 yd drive stalled inside the Cle 5 . While this drive stalled it was also all handoffs and killed clock . Think 4th down was at teh 2minute warning or just after and they rather kick a FG or throw a pass just ran it on 4th and 3 from teh 5 . They were 1st and 10 from the 12 with a tad less then 4 to play and just let the clock run.

Same deal vs CIncy and remember Flacco's 1st game ever . Opening drive fumble no biggie though .

2nd Q at the cincy 46 go 19yds on 6 plays stall and settle for FG attempt and Stover misses (1st down at the Cincy 29 but 3 straight incompletes odd playcalling IMO). See his struggles from 45ish+ . Before half start at the cincy 39 and move it inside the 5 but stall and settle for 3 pts. Aided by a 15 yd penalty as well they had 3rd and 3 from the 3 and INC pass..

2nd H starts and 1st drive 14 plays and 59yards but started at there 7 and ended up with a TOD at the Cincy 34 . Next drive get a TD though . On the TOD they had 2nd and 4 from the 34 and gain 1 yd on a run floowed by 2 inc's on 3rd then 4th and 3 on Cincys 34.

4th Q go 7 plays 35 yds and FUMBLE at Cincys 35 another missed opp !1 Not sure what happened here exactly as they are 1st and 10 from Cincys 23 the ball gets fumbled maybe bad snap and its a CIncy TD the either way .

Then with 7:15 to play they go 13plays and 62 yds but let time expire on CIncys 12. Pick up 3rd and 1 from the Cincy 14 to the 10 at the 2 min warning the take afew knees .

So while they busted long runs for TDs from Clayton and Flacco they had more then a few missed chances . No reason I see why again they cant score at least 24 + points . Missed FG , TOD at the Cincy 34 and fumble on the CIncy 23 on 1st down plus stall inside the 5 yd line and get 3 rather then 7.

So Oak off a hard fought victory has to travel and one thing I recall is how there defense seems to tire or whatever in the 2nd H . Saints couldnt be stopped , Bills had the huge comeback in the 4th Q , At buffalo they allowed 17 4th Q points and missed a FG to start the 2nd H plus fumbled near the OAK red zone late 1st H . So more pts could be had and that Bills offense is very similiar to Balts nowadays IMO. Lee Evans is a true burner which Balt kinda lacks but its all about short conservative passes with good YAC 's and running the ball . They did hold KC to 8 pts but another 4th Q TD . So definte drop in production on teh road after halftime.

Balt defense is really good no doubt but 2 young QBS as well mistakes could happen . I would be suprised to see OAK get shutout but anything is possible if Balt jumps out on them . I think we have to acknowledge some nice improvement from the OAK Offense . There was a Javon Walker sighting which was great news for them . Also though notice how few possessions they had in this game as NY ran the ball alot and OAK is like more with slow time consuming drives .

OAK 1st Q
- 3 and out punt opening drive
-After a stalled drive at the jet 47 they punted but NY fumbled and OAK started at he Jets 16 . They get 13 yds on 1st down setting up 1st and goal from the 3 but fuck up and move backwards like Oak does and get just 3 pts.

OAK 2nd Q
-Again move the ball and get 1st down at Jets 24 but they stall manage just 1 yd on 3 downs and settle for a 40yd FG which Seabass somehow misses . Another missed opp.
-get the ball with 140 left in a 3-3 game before half. Pickup a 1st down on conservative runs then wind up seeing time expire when nothing more happens.

So 1st H really just 3 touches and after the opening drive had the ball 1st goal at the NYJ 3 and 1st and10 at the Cincy 24. Yet score just 3 pts .

Oak 3rd Q:
-Opening drive 9 plays 70 yds a TD pass to Walker think AL Davis was happy ?
-Next drive theer 2nd 3 and out
-Move the ball some get 1st down at the Jets 41 yd but typical OAK goes backwards thanks to some penalties .

Oak 4th Q :
Tricky drive they pull a fake punt and get 22yds on 4th and 2 putting them at midfield . Typical OAK gets a 1st down 15 yd penalty putting them at 1st and 25 . McFadden gets 6 yds then 25 on a screen pass but gets the 15 yds back on a Jet penalty . 1st and 10 at the Jet 20 with 4:30 to play so they run on 1st down get a yard , then drop back to pass and Russells fumbles and loses 5 but run it on 3rd wisely and get 5 back to set up a 37YD fg which is good.

OT-
1st touch :
gain 5 yds on the ground , lose 5 yds on the ground , then get just 4 on what was 3rd and 10 so punt
2nd touch start at there own 45 need bout 20yds to get a FG attempt . Big mistake IMO play it safe and run on 1st down getting just 1 yd then 2 Russell INCs. Should attack on 1st down IMO...
3rd touch : they got my memo as an OAK backer (lol) and throw on 1st down despite being at there own 16 yd line. Walker gets 16 yds then Miller 27 yds next lay and 1st and 10 at the 38 yd line but again obvious playcalling . Fargas losses a yd followed by INCs . They didnt seem to understand Fargas was ineffective running the ball and kept doing it on 1st down . Maybe they learned something but definite improvement I thought with OAK throwing the ball and Russell making decisions.

So besides this 16 they only struggled at NO scoring 3 and missing a few long FGs and could have had 10 with a tad better execution . Other then this they have scored 14 , 23 and 23 and 18 . I thought vs NO alot of the same issues settling for long FGs rather then being aggressive. Its great that Seabass can nail a 57-58 yder or mid 50s but you cant start settling for that attempt everytime you get the ball to the opponent 40 to 35 yd line . Which by playcalling seems they have done .

So my point is BALT offense has shown some life and OAK defense has been wearing down on the road or playing over there hard for abit and kinda evening out late(r) in the game on the road. Still expect Balt to get 24 pts here without a defensive score and think its reasonable if the progression continues to get 27,28 maybe even 31 if it all goes smoothly . With OAK despite there woes I see progress and not even sure what side I like but had to believe that OAK cant score 7 pts . Which doesnt mean I like BALT just looking at what I expect in terms of scoring and absoulte worst case which really is more like 10 from OAK .

Anyway Balt 24 and 7-10 OAK worst case and I am seeing 31-34 pts minimum here and as I said no reason Balt cant get 27 or 28 which means need only 9-10 from OAK .....

So probably playing this over as well. Oak defense might be worn down from the long Jet game and as I said has struggled in 2nd H already which Balt offense has progessively gotten better as well. Also though HUGE spot for Balt here as they have 3 straight ROAD games with @CLE , @ HOU , @ NYG on deck thenhost Philly before @ Cincy . So despite a low profile opponent being its a huge game scheduling wise and the fact they sit at 3-3 it should be a game that has there attention. They got su fucked by the Tenny game (sorry Tenny fans) but they did . If they are 4-2 now they can absorb a rough patch if they are 5-2 with 4 rough games coming if they could manage 1-3 and be 6-5 with a win @ Cincly likely if Palmer is done and then 7-5 needing probably to get 2 wins with a tough slate but at least 3 home games vs Pitt , Wash and Jax in week 16 (@ Dal as well) and they could easily win all of them on a good run but could also talk the 3 at home and be 9-7 now if they even do that they are 8-8 and probably not in the playoffs despite a team that is probably the equal of Jax or Wash if Flacco continues to make strides , the defense stays healthy , the OL stays healthy and the RBs , plus renew the previous success of Heap and Clayton who have been non factors all year and Stover return to top form.

Also Cable questioned his teams effort at NO so I wouldnt expect that type of game again or expect a repeat performance effort wise . Previously OAK went to KC and Buffalo not easy places and showedup from the 1st Q to the last Q where NO they never came outof the tunnell after half......

Jets had 418 yds @ Oak and really Jets are actually a weaker version IMO of Balt a solid defense that is notdominant or game changing like Oak and offense really built on short passes , timing routes and running the ball despite the fact one team has Brett Favre and the other Joe Flacco. really think Favre right not is biting his tongue rather then be a premadonna distraction and start questioning the coaching staff and play calling . I am sure we have a lot of Jets fan who expected more wide open playcalling and no more dink and dunk type shit . remember that Jets settled for a FG near the red zone on the opening possesion then really went downhill in some ways after a long drive where Favre was picked in the end one from insiode the OAK 10. So of 3 1st Q drive NY had two starts inside the red zone and managed just points and a 3 and out punt the other . TOP was crazy on each possession the Jets had ONLY 3 possession the ENTIRE 2nd and 3rd Q with ended in punts but all 3 saw NY get to midfield or slightily into OAK territory before stalling . Then 4th Q was a long TD drive , a INT and the pull out of his ass drive to get NY into FG range from theer won 5 and feely was good from 52 yds. In OT they didnt do much and best field positionw as there own 20 followed by the 18 and 11 yd line so the had to be a tad conservative I guess . In regulation they had 9 possessions and only 2 were useless the INT and 3 and out in the 1st Q . Otherwise they had 2 FGs , 1 TD , and INT in the end zone and 3 drives they got to at least midfeild on where they stalled and punted .

Wont get crazy here but one play I do like alot besides the OVER 36 (prefer 35 of course ) is Balt and Over Teased . You get -1 /-1.5 and 30 I would guess most places . Which takes me to my worse case scenario of thinking Balt good for 24 and Oak good for 7 worst case ...........Again not that I sam saying Balt will cover but do feel they will score and what OAK scores will be the determinant as obvious as that sounds . Sort of a play on the correalated parlays used by many here....

:cheers:



























So while they got some cheap points and had some good field poistion there defense is always going to help them out feild position wise but there is no reason why Balt should have not scored 24 pts that day. CLE defense is very solid and would say at worst equal to Oaks but has probably performed better . Cle handed them 14 pts off turnovers but Balt sloppy play took 10 pts off the board as well NOT including what happened on the INT drives or what could have happened.







 
Thanks Hammer BTW forgot to respond before . Sure hope I have a good week also !


back to OAKs run defense .

TJones 24c 159yds his previous 3 games :
45c 148yds with 2 home games .

Oaks previous 3 games :
Buff 28c 117yds and two Lynch TDs

SD 27c 119yds (granted nothing till late in the game but LT is less then 100% as well ) Also remember Oaks D slowly wearing down or playing over there heads early and it catching up to them? Well 25 pts in the 4th allowed at home vs SD ...

NO 32 c 115yds but watered down by Bush 14c 27yds

Den think 27c 125 yds ....

So I think they have a solid defense but they can be weak vs the run at times and struggled in previous seasons on the road . Jones big day I think is a caution flag of what may be happening there near future .....Next !
 
damn. good discussion going here guys. Esp Nut- Thanks for your time man. Takes me a while just to read all you write, cant imagine how long it takes you. Havnt been in much discussion with my fav sport NBA coming

You guys have pretty much sold me on Detroit

Nut- whats your thoughs/play on this NE/STL game?
 
SF_capper said:
damn. good discussion going here guys. Esp Nut- Thanks for your time man. Takes me a while just to read all you write, cant imagine how long it takes you. Havnt been in much discussion with my fav sport NBA coming

You guys have pretty much sold me on Detroit

Nut- whats your thoughs/play on this NE/STL game?
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Thanks SF . I enjoy the discussion so it comes fairly easily for me to write . Unlike MLB its not as repetitive in football as so many teams bewteen college it seems the "stories" change week to week . MLB you feel like by June 1st its the same type crap everyday and I get stuck trying out think myself even knowing patterns last longer in bases because of the amount of games . Some days it does take awhile to type cause I am just blurting out what pops into my head. Like now. Sometimes I wish I could take a tad more time to make it shorter , clearer and maybe more grammatical correct . Would be nice to reflect that I do understand the English language despite my busted grammar most days . Then I think as long as people get the jist of my thoughts its good enough . So here is a long blurt -

Have to say the 2 hardest games for me so far are Balt/ Oak and Ne/STL.

NE/STL:
My biggest thing is asking what should this line be but with STL now just coming alive after being terrible and NE being up and down then losing Harrison and Morris its fucking hard . I really did mean that I felt books were just saying we give up by throwing up 7 cause it takes no thought IMO to do that . At 7 you let the market decide whats fair or where it thinks it should be (if it holds you also get the extra vig of people buying up or down which as long as 7 doesnt comeinto play you just added a luxury tax). Now that it got bet up its even more confusing but maybe hinting at Stephen Jackson not playing or reflecting he hasnt practiced. I think the NE cold could be an issue because I am not sure STL has every broken the greatest show on turf mentality / label ( though looks like 60s as of now its been getting much cooler here in NY past few weeks but the sun also pops out aot so who knows and NE obviously further NorthE) .

They won @ Wash but nice weather that day and look at the boxscore Skins self destructed as did Dallas this week . The thing is take away the 4th Q vs Buffalo and the DEF has done fairly well . Chris Long is getting rave reviews these days and to be honest not sure how the secondary is doing it since they lost both starting CBs though I believe Hill's replacement has played well . Pace and SJ should play but I guess you have to be cautious expecting SJack at this point .

For NE tough spot I heard Randy Moss mention that NE was a tad tired from the WEST COAST 2 week stay which is understandable for a vet team IMO . Then you had the MNF game and now a short week . I keep saying this but I want to research how teams are doing after the MNF game . Seems the losing team have done well the next week but maybe it should include the underdog doing well since Cle won SU as home dog and covered @ Wash. Think the favs hav struggled on the short week after winning on MNF but dont know factually.

So the way I think NE will have play to cover is really limit the Rams offense . Which could be fairly easily since they have been good at stopping the run and the front 7 is there strength (SJ status as well with no clear backups). Harrison and I may be wrong here NE fans will know better then I , would think his LOSS is more about a leadership and emotional role . Guys like him playing safety are usually the captain or the anchor defenses IMO so think Meriweather would be fine other then leadership wise .

Many of us here mentioned how great NE was at making the franchise a team with any one man replaceable . Obviously that mantra has been tested in 2008 . Brady gets hurt in week 1 , assume Maroney was never really healthy and he was key late in the year for them once NE started playing better teams it couldnt just drop back and pass on. Now the RB situation with Morris down and losing Harrison .Good news is the OL looked real good but Cassel the only thing I dislike about him are what any young QB tends to struggle with . He doesnt know how to adjust quickly when plays called are not there or covered . Missed teh crossing route by the TE on a rollout or flea flikcer on MNF whatever play it was (deep look to Moss and had the TE crossing right in front of him 2nd H ). He looks like he gets flustered and doesnt know what to do which is why he is taking alot more sacks then he should. I think he is going down like 5x a game and a few are just holding on to the ball , some are teams saying we are gonna blitz all day and the OL not playing well but rememebr 2 OL came back on MNF for them.

Big key is Randy Moss have to look at the new corners more but this seems like a huge edge they should exploit (size wise as well ). NE has some trouble with the deep ball but looked better on MNF . Now STL hit a big play to Avery who is going to be the big play guy from now on but it also came I believe on what was a short field . Good field position always makes the offense run more efficient especially if it came via a turnover . Not a specific reason why but look at this you have a momentum swing (the offense is amped and the defense is dejected abit) , you have the defense on heels just because mistakes are more costly , and you may have a big OL or RB who can simpilfy the game but taking it 10 yards at a time and before you know your inside the 10 without doing much OR a team could expect the grind it out run approach and you get single coverage or WRs lost in coverage ..kinda irrelevant rant but something to think about looking at how teams score .

Bottomline here is I havent figured out a side yet and both ATS plays make sense . What I do think is Stephen Jackson is less then 100% then the offense wil really struggle . It thrived on turnovers and field position vs Dallas , it didnt do much @ Wash , @Seattle , @Philly. So really think 14-17 pts is going to be the high water mark for them offensively minus turnovers providing pts or short fields . I think STL DEF unit is for "real" but the injuries at CB leave me unsure. I say that and dont laugh because I picked the Rams defense late in my fantasy draft . Silly right but Fantasy football research is great for capping IMO because your looking for purely statisical strengths . Thought STL had great upside ona a talent basis . Anyway with Sammy Morris OUT and the ground game divided by Green , Jordan and Faulk it doesnt really have the hammer back it did like Maroney and Morris provide . A 100% healthy and motivated Lamont Jordan (5'10 230 seems kinda big but more in out of shape terms) would probably qualify but not sure about either but like how he looked when healthy vs NYJ (but healthy and motivated facing his 1st franchise IMO) . So I think NE has to be about 20-21 pts worst case but it also might not be m uch better vs STL defense . Think 27-28 is tops without help ..

So UNDER 43 with 24-14 expectations seem realistic but could be 24-16 or 23-16 . NE had some RED ZONE inssues as well to date and both have good kickers but Josh Brown has been very good especially from distance . Gostkowski (sp?) is very solid and underrated because Bill tends not need him to win games and doesnt act foolish FGs and in a sense protects him because of it .

I also think this could be a very good teaser game . Lots of -7.5 out there and -1.5 NE and Und 49 or 48.5 loosk very attractive to me at this point . I do expect low scoring game but also suspect that the even if NE covers the spread best case they win by 2TDS .

NE has won by more then 9 pts before MNF and both teams outside of the NE opener have lost SU and ATS and when they won SU have covered the ATS. Which means NE with Cassel as the starting QB has not had a win and non cover and STL has not had a loss and ATS win . So might be a great spot for that now with Rams general improvement . Logically this has occurred becuase NE is generally small favs in the games they won @NYJ , @SF and vs DEN while STL has 2 wins both huge upsets ATS . Think it will be tough for STL to pull off 3 straight "big" ATS and SU upsets and I say big in terms of line not actual opponent . Which NE is no longer a small fav and is 0-2 vs KC and Miami as DDs. The hate for NE can also keep them attractive since it might go unnoticed this is the smallest line of the season for STL who lost by 35 @ Philly , 24 @ Seattle , and won by 2 @ Wash . At Wash they had a defensive score , 44 , 49 and 51 yd FGs hardly automatic and wind could be an issue on game day , were -180 yds net vs Wash , Saw Wash fumble 3 x when starting at the Rams 35 to Rams 25 so at worst lost 3 FG attempts , Rams also handed Wash a TD thanks to a 3 yd drive , STL had FG drives of 28 and 7 yds ......Dont see much difference bewteen NE and WASH would rate each very close to neutral maybe NE still better so minus the miscues we maybe have seen FG fest and something like a 19-6 SKins win ...

So UNDER looks very attractive and with Sjack questionable think I will lock in the NE / UND teaser and some under 43 with the option to add some more. I think its going to be a NE win but 50/50 on if they cover expecting and I know its a wide range but confident it falls bewteen 3-14 pts . So Rams above +17.5 might be as attractive as well with my only concern being what they score but 7pts could be enough to keep teasers alive...

Next Oak / Balt :

My problem with the Oak game is I see both teams showing improvement but Oak has HUGE 2nd H and 4th Q issues on defense . Buffalo and SD had 17 and 18 in the 4th Q alone while NO had a huge 2nd H offensively . Balt I think is really flying under the radar how good they have become offensively BUT they havent pieced it all togther losing pts to not trusting the offense to convert shortyardage plays or conservative play calling , missed FGs , naturally turnovers and fumbles as well . So prefer the OVER here at 36 of course 35 would be nice but 36 is fairly dead number compared 35 ,37,38 . So again comfortable with 24-14 and might be a great 3rd wing for a teaser with NE and The UNDER NE which I consider the totals the strongest of the two teased plays so maybe people have another they like Det +17.5 , Phins +11 etc?? Have an earlier post about the BALT total which is an OVER play for me in here somewhere...

Any thoughts on either game are definetly appreciated by me from anyone so if you have a feel it would be good to hear it . I am bit caught on both ATS at the moment . If I had to for both with say favs at the moment but far from sure .....

:cheers:












 
MusicCityGambler said:
Weather forecast for the game in Nashville: High 58/Low 36, Strong wind at 22 mph gusting west Northwest. Not good for the Barbaros.
Click to expand...

Just as a devil advocate's point I think the wind was about that @ Lambeau on Sunday . So would be good to see if it had any effect on the Colts passing game . Only because at 20Mph its not that strong but obviously something to watch for :shake:
 
Games or plays of interest so far : (basically my leans or plays already)

Also the + after the number simply means or better then that number . So NE 43 or better for the under . Rather then type it every play just used a + sign.


-Under 43 + NE
-Teaser : NE -1.5 & Und 48.5 +
-Eagles -9 ( lean over 45 think Philly worst case is 28-31 range)
-Lions +7.5 +
-Lions ML 250+ (see 270 now)
-Panthers -4.5 (see -4+ so -3.5 -120 probably available try for -3 -120)
-Cowboys ML -125/-130 (see -1.5-110)
-SD -3 ( would buy to -2.5){ thought about the Over but Manchester UK is correct lets wait to see what the weather is after the field last year was terrible . I thought the NFL might changethe surface or something but doesnt seem like that would happen and might not go well if suggested)
-Over 36 Ravens (also might go the same teaser route here Balt -1.5 and over 30 )
-Phins +1 ( getting +3 would be nice even if I had to pay -120 to -130 as thats my worst case scenario they lose by 3). Also though would not be afraid to lay pts with Miami here
-Texans but what I envision here is competitive 1st H with Houston scoring enough to just cover the spread in the 2nd H . So might wait till halftime and play Houston 2nd H strong ....so now lean Cincy 1st H and Houston 2nd H which may lead to Houston covering the game spread .
-Browns and over 42 .
-SF but caught on the fence here because I feel like while it was a backdoor cover @ TB they didnt have much of a chance on offense to show anything . SEA is broken as a team now but also may have Branch back . Basically laying juts 6 pts less with SF then one could have with TB. Travel for SEA as well . Seat to TB to SEA to SF in a week ..
-Steelers lean but injuries an issue now Holmes is OUT for PITT .
-Colts lean as I think FG is worst case scenario even though I know Tenny will be looking to tear Indy up and is capable if they put an A game together. Addai is out but Rhodes could be a better fit vs a tough defense . More interested in Colts defensive injuries and Bob Sanders ......


Havent played much outside of the NE teaser (along with a 3 team teaser with Philly +1) , Balt 2 team teaser I mentioned I locked in during this post -1/over 30 , plus have NE under 43.5 -120 and Over 35 Balt -120 . Otherwise just monitoring the rest and working on really going through each gam. Have a tendency to jump around game to game and sport to sport rather then finish anything up......

Alot of stuff this week and I tend to have alot of plays each week especially when I get a head start on things rather then scaramble to finish up gameday .....:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Games or plays of interest so far : (basically my leans or plays already)

Also the + after the number simply means or better then that number . So NE 43 or better for the under . Rather then type it every play just used a + sign.


-Under 43 + NE
-Teaser : NE -1.5 & Und 48.5 +
-Eagles -9 ( lean over 45 think Philly worst case is 28-31 range)
-Lions +7.5 +
-Lions ML 250+ (see 270 now)
-Panthers -4.5 (see -4+ so -3.5 -120 probably available try for -3 -120)
-Cowboys ML -125/-130 (see -1.5-110)
-SD -3 ( would buy to -2.5){ thought about the Over but Manchester UK is correct lets wait to see what the weather is after the field last year was terrible . I thought the NFL might changethe surface or something but doesnt seem like that would happen and might not go well if suggested)
-Over 36 Ravens (also might go the same teaser route here Balt -1.5 and over 30 )
-Phins +1 ( getting +3 would be nice even if I had to pay -120 to -130 as thats my worst case scenario they lose by 3). Also though would not be afraid to lay pts with Miami here
-Texans but what I envision here is competitive 1st H with Houston scoring enough to just cover the spread in the 2nd H . So might wait till halftime and play Houston 2nd H strong ....so now lean Cincy 1st H and Houston 2nd H which may lead to Houston covering the game spread .
-Browns and over 42 .
-SF but caught on the fence here because I feel like while it was a backdoor cover @ TB they didnt have much of a chance on offense to show anything . SEA is broken as a team now but also may have Branch back . Basically laying juts 6 pts less with SF then one could have with TB. Travel for SEA as well . Seat to TB to SEA to SF in a week ..
-Steelers lean but injuries an issue now Holmes is OUT for PITT .
-Colts lean as I think FG is worst case scenario even though I know Tenny will be looking to tear Indy up and is capable if they put an A game together. Addai is out but Rhodes could be a better fit vs a tough defense . More interested in Colts defensive injuries and Bob Sanders ......


Havent played much outside of the NE teaser (along with a 3 team teaser with Philly +1) , Balt 2 team teaser I mentioned I locked in during this post -1/over 30 , plus have NE under 43.5 -120 and Over 35 Balt -120 . Otherwise just monitoring the rest and working on really going through each gam. Have a tendency to jump around game to game and sport to sport rather then finish anything up......

Alot of stuff this week and I tend to have alot of plays each week especially when I get a head start on things rather then scaramble to finish up gameday .....:cheers:
Click to expand...

Hey Nut,
Love your analysis on everything. So detailed and methodical - excellent info as per usual. Many thanks.

Just wanted to throw out a quick comment: I will be the first to admit that Bob Sanders is the heart and soul of the Colt defense. Quite simliar to a Lewis, Urlacher etc. As I have stated in a previous post the Colts are NOW 22-8 (last 30) WITHOUT him in the line-up.

Certainly his absence is a factor and maybe even moreso against a team like Tennessee. However, I would just state that it should not be the LONE and KEY factor is determining a Colts play. With you, I know its not. Thought I'd mention it anyhow.

BOL this week.

:cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Haslett said Stephen Jackson is 50/50 for Sunday no good news for them.
Click to expand...

I would say that I LOVE the Rams this week. But if Jackson is a no go - the Pats will likely come away victorious. Determining by how much seems to be the biggest dilemma.

Really gotta like the STL defense as of late...playing with some fire no doubt. NE banged up could very well play a factor and I'd bet dollars to donuts they don't put up the same numbers as last week. That Bronco defense is putrid and I beleive that has caused a slight overvalue in the Patriots (and their offence); hence the current line. If Jackson does play - I don't see any reason NOT to like the points.

As far as the Bal/Oak game goes - I like the Ravens personally. I expect a solid effort on both sides of the ball after two road losses. I honestly can't see how the Raiders will score. I've actually been to M&T Bank Stadium and its a pretty tough and LOUD place to play. Let down RAIDERS after last week IMO. I think the Ravens will come out very hungry in this game. Could be a beat-down. Call it 24-9...or perhaps 27-16 BIRDS... in my mind.

Only time will tell.

:cheers:
 
The_HAMMER said:
Hey Nut,
Love your analysis on everything. So detailed and methodical - excellent info as per usual. Many thanks.

Just wanted to throw out a quick comment: I will be the first to admit that Bob Sanders is the heart and soul of the Colt defense. Quite simliar to a Lewis, Urlacher etc. As I have stated in a previous post the Colts are NOW 22-8 (last 30) WITHOUT him in the line-up.

Certainly his absence is a factor and maybe even moreso against a team like Tennessee. However, I would just state that it should not be the LONE and KEY factor is determining a Colts play. With you, I know its not. Thought I'd mention it anyhow.

BOL this week.

:cheers:
Click to expand...


Thanks Hammer .

Good point about Sanders . Its not like GB ran over them last week or some of the other teams . The best way to negate his loss is score quick and build a big lead like they did vs Balt . Only difference is they dont have HFA here to try and accomplish that . With that said as you mentioned its not the end of the world if that doesnt happen either . Big reason why I mentioned him was more because it would be nice to have one of their missing parts back in a big game. Looks like Addai is a no go and suspect why the line was bumped to -4 this week .

While its Tenny's SB in a sense to prove they are for real to everyone its really a more meaningful game for the Colts as I am sure you know better then most .

Hard pressed to see myself not taking Indy here because I think the line is really bad and way off ( see PK really but the injuries make it tougher for me ) . Truth is Tenny is a team I have sucked at most of the year in picking there games . So that has to be acknowledged as well . One thing is Vinateri is struggling abit from 45 + and Bironas is pretty solid . :cheers:

With STL as I said my view would be for them to not cover it would be because of the offense really struggling to do something . They have really failed to score more then 13 pts on offense so far on the road and the offense while showing some progress is really not responsible for the last 2 wins IMO. So if STL scores 10 then I think NE is going to have a good shot to cover . I think we cant forget that NE offense didnt play that poorly at SD either but failed to get some points at key situations . There main issue is what to do when they get in the red zone which naturally was mentioned on MNF but has been a HUGE issue if we look at there games . I absolutely agree that NE will not be scoring with ease like vs Denver but I also think they like to take there time with the current situation and extend drives , grind out the yards , and hit the big play if it presents itself . Carriker also questionable for rams.

Pretty much agree with BALT but while I think similiarly not really willing to write off the Raiders here . I think Balt will just be that good on Sunday . Pretty sure Balt gets 24+ here :shake::cheers:

 
London tomorrow,predicted to be dry,clear and cold.
Its like winter :(
Theres been rain but none predicted tomorrow.Id honestly leave this total alone...I still expect the pitch to cut up badly.Like the man says " you pay your money you take your chance" . .. Id leave it alone,just my $0.02
TBH its a shame bad weather isnt forecast cause wed be smashing that under.

Brilliant thread,Best of luck Gents :shake:
 
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