RB - I probably have to much mitchell. A bit to much henderson/carter. Some swift/taylor, a smidge ekeler/moss .... maybe missing a player or two.
QB/WR - I played allen with diggs or beasley, burrow with higgins mostly (some uzomah/a dot of chase), hurts with some smith, some goedert.
TE - Gesicki/Pitts/Goedert mostly --- some uzomah smidge henry/cook, maybe forgetting someone.
I big game stacked a small amount of buf/mia, phi/det, smidge jac/sea.
I small game stacked a smidge of car/atl, ind/ten.
AJ Brown with no julio
Gage with no ridley (and/or pitts although still pricey)
Elijah moore (or carter/crowder) with no davis.
Guys who probably beat there pts/$ because of opportunity.
More than doubled my investment yesterday.
Nailed the RBs minus moss and some swift. but they were my lowest owned ones. allen+beasley lineups did great, burrow+higgins was good (so close to higgins 100yd bonus). Hurts lineups were meh. I kind of keep missing on TE, pitts/uzomah were definite busts, the other guys weren't great.
Defense I was meh. had a few rams,9ers,skins, and I acutllay had 1 with phi and 3 with saints, so I was happy there, but it was in the wrong lineups. top ones had 49ers unfortunately.
Brown/Pittman mini game stack was HUGE, and was part of all the top lineups. Happy to have had that.
Gage was a bust. Moore was fine.
Anyways, lets keep it rolling.
NYG/KCC
NYG DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, and meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd of the week. O/U is highest of the week really.
Danny Dimes has the 4th best ASR situation.
Dar. Williams has the 4th best ALY push. Booker has the 9th worst ALY push.
Just that stuff above would concern me if I was an under backer, because with the projected gamescript of chiefs 10 point faves, it shows they should have success moving the ball on the ground (with a lead), and giants should have success continually airing it out to come back. Also seems like they'll (giants) have a tough time maintaining the lead is they can't get their ground game going (they'll probably need a have 3rd down passing coversion rate if it falls that way).
I said this last week, but demcarcus robinson continues to see more and more snaps. (highest among all WRs last week ---- 79*%, his highest of the season). Unfortunately, he saw the fewest targeets of the 3 "other players" (hill/kelce are the big 2). Pringle/Hardman/Robinson had 6/5/4 targets but I'll follow the playing time opportunities when hardman is much more expensive, and pringle hasn't touched 48%+ snaps yet.
----- full disclosure ------ just saw pringles air yards last week, 121!... thats big but its the only time he's respectably beat robinsons aDOT. Robinsons last week was 5.5, but he's averaging 12.35 aDOT for the season. Pringles is 10.5. So it's not as extreme as it may seem, and I'd like him to establish it on a consistent basis so he proves it's not really just an anomaly
Kelce continues to see double digit targets, and should always be considered.
Hill was never on the injury report, I'm unsure if bradberry is shadowing, but we've seen alpha's burn/beat him this year, so I wouldn't shy away either.
Darrel Williams had 5 carries last week, 4 come on the first 2 drives... then the game was 17-0, and they never used him again. The blowout lead to a drop in snaps too. Vs Washington, where the game started competitive, and began to lead to a KCC easy win. Williams had 21 carries, and 4 targets. Which outcome is more likely? A blowout loss, or a competitive win/blowout win. On top of that, you'll see above he has a positive OL push. I think he needs to be played, and has a path to 25+ touches.
I can't remember exactly what I said, but I mentioned do we really want bookers 10-15 carreis for 25-40 yards, and maybe a couple catches for max 20 yards? And that he would need a TD to even be relevant. Well, the giants lead 18-3 with less than 5 minutes left, Bookers stat line was 13 carries 32yards, and 2 catches for 15 yards. Solid 6.7 full ppr fantasy points in a game they were down once by 3 points and never looked back. Then he ripped a 19 yard TD to cap it and salvaged his day with 14-51-1, 2-15, 14.6 points. I don't see his running yardage going up in this script, but to give him the benefit, it'll be a slightly faster game, with a higher o/u, and will probably see more targets, so he has avenues... but I'm not chasing it, and will let others.
I want to say I like evan engram, and the chiefs have given up great fantasy points to the TE, and engram has been the only pass catching player jones has had for the last 5 straight weeks (which is kind of crazy if you think about), he sees 60%+ of snaps, averaging almost 6 targets a game. But how the head did he get 8 targets last week, and average a total of 3, THREE, AIR YARDS, last week. His aDOT on the season is 4.98. My gut says let other chase him too.
Now the question turns to WRs, the pluses, chiefs defend that position the best (is that saying much?). We don't know which WRs will see the important snaps, play until the end, see the deep shots, as it's been a revolving door. I say these are pluses, because if there are question marks that can't be answered on its surface, they're more likely to be underowned. But if jones is expected to have time, and we know he can move, then I saw the WR's as the biggest upside options. I know should be the snap share owner ,and the target hog, and he's to be considered, I think you can take shows on Toney, and his possible alpha status, as well as slayton. I want them all in some capacity (with jones and his dual threat ability/fantasy point maker). I don't want any pettis, his price is obscenely high, and he is the one hurt most by the returning WRs. (if you want that to be your contrarian play, go ahead, but I don't see how that is optimal, at all.)
I think slayton>toney/shep is the order I want, but haven't checked their prices. And my yearlong fantasy is hoping for toney
