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DFS/Props Week 15 Discussion

Geno is active

Well fuck, does that mean he for sure gonna play? Far as game outcome I don’t think there much difference but far as my props go I think I lm on the wrong 2 seattle pass catchers, I really hope I’m wrong bout this but if geno starting I’d say metcalf and smith-nijigba be the better props, if lock starts then I’m happy to be on Lockett and fant, ain’t this a bitch.
 
I played so many props in this game it feels like the freaking super bowl! Lol. Not that many but more than I usually play for 1 game.

Lockett ov 49.5 rec is my fav, great route runner so if Philly tries changing things up with their crappy pass d I’d think it be more likely to effect DK who’s route tree isn’t all that complex so prob easier to double, his game gonna be more bout winning jump balls or running guys over after the catch, regardless what Patricia does lockett will find the soft spots and his total a good 10 yards lower than DK. Like lockett receptions ov 4.5 also. DK might be the better home run play on Alt numbers but you can also get a pretty good price on lockett yards plus a td, like that as much as DK Alt numbers.

Fant ov 19.5 rec .him and lock been around each other long time, gotta think lock trust him and would look that way if under heat from Philly dline.

Walker under 47.5 rush (pretty rare I play a under but this sure feels high, he giving lot of work to charbonnett plus Philly run d is still nasty, just don’t think the run game gonna be very effective, if you did have designs on a seattle back I think charbonnett at like 32 yards way more attractive).

Gainwell ov 14.5 rush. Love this one almost as much as Lockett. I’ve done real well picking the right games to play Gainwell on these low numbers. Think I’ve gotten him once at 9,5 and one at 12.5, this started at 17.5 and I still kinda liked it. These ain’t for everyone, sometimes you sit around just hoping he gets a carry, I usually don’t watch when I play just him and happily cash ticket at end cause he almost always finds his way over for me by a few yards. He avg 5.7 per carry, seattle isn’t good against the run, he could easily get this w just 2-3 carrys, I think he prob get 4 at least in a game I suspect Philly runs more than throws and doubt they calling Hurts number very often. Just line up and bang at seattle d the way to go, as talented swift is he don’t hit the hole as hard Gainwell and Scott do, kinda think that what missing a bit with Philly run game this year.,

Brown ov 77.5 rec. he built just like niners big physical wrs who been a nightmare for seattle to stop the last few weeks. When Philly has to pass I think this a brown and godert game.

Godert ov 40.5 rec and 3.5 catches. Hurts feeling little under the weather, tight end is the qb best friend and seattle doesn’t cover them any better than wrs! Lol

Hurts ov .5 int +120…. Good price if you look at his home/road splits and throw in he has the sniffles. I dunno if he throw a int or not but when you look at his numbers anytime you can get plus money on the road appears like a solid long term type play.

Told ya’ll I played a lot! Blame ncaa hoops for the weak ass card, boredom, or maybe I actually see value in these numbers, probably a mix of all 3 but seriously the hurts int price just seems like something should always get played on road, love me some low gainwell numbers, almost never play unders and if walker goes over it clear I just suck at them cause everything screams under to me, fant and Lockett just make sense assuming Lock is starting, if it geno I prob wouldn’t play those (hopefully it lock!), game script hopefully plays out w Philly running more than throwing and playing w a lead, that would give quite a bit of value to a bunch of these imo.

Tailed with a .8u parlay --> Lockett O 50.5, Brown O 80.5, KW Under 48.5 rush, and Goddy O 42.5 +1038

& .2u same 4 with Sea ML at 36-1

Really don't have a strong lean on the side in the game. Likely Seahawks plus points for action
 
Tailed with a .8u parlay --> Lockett O 50.5, Brown O 80.5, KW Under 48.5 rush, and Goddy O 42.5 +1038

& .2u same 4 with Sea ML at 36-1

Really don't have a strong lean on the side in the game. Likely Seahawks plus points for action

Not a clue, if you made me I’d take the points but wouldn't feel great bout it. Mostly just cause seattle has lost 4 straight, 5 straight seems like a lot for pistol Pete to lose. Not exactly the strongest angle. Kinda like the over but Monday nights havnt produced many of those. Seems like a game both offenses outta be able to move the ball, I’d be surprised if they both didn’t go over 20. I would swap out Lockett and fant for DK and smith-nijigba if Geno starts, that would suck.
 
If they bring Geno in after Lock starts I'm going to be livid (barring injury/terrible play)
 
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