Week 7 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

The yearly total is 40-35-3 after a 6-6-1 week. We needed a hot finish to even reach .500, so let's just say improvement is needed. After reviewing the plays, there were 2 absolute stinkers, but I wasn't really repulsed by any of the other plays after reviewing them in hindsight, and all 6 of the wins were very solid calls. Looks like another entertaining slate of games this week, so let's see what we can find.

Michigan State +5 WIN
Indiana +34 LOSS
Ga Southern +5.5 LOSS
Maryland -13.5 LOSS
Bowling Green +4 WIN
Oregon +3.5 WIN
Wisconsin -9.5 LOSS
Georgia State ML(-114) WIN
Auburn +11.5 LOSS
Air Force -11 LOSS
Pitt +7 WIN
Notre Dame -2.5 WIN
Oregon State -3.5 WIN
Duke -3 WIN
UAB +9 LOSS

8-7

1. Michigan State +5 @Rutgers: It's pretty rare that the Scarlet Knights are favorites in a conference game, but with all that's happened with Michigan State this year, that's where we find ourselves. I cheated myself out of a backdoor cover last week by deciding not to go with the Rutgers road dog auto play(due to my lack of interest in sweating another front door cover that i thought Wisconsin was destined for). Naturally, Schiano's boys scored late for the back door, as they usually do in conference road games when they're dogs. When they're at home, it's a completely different story. In Schiano's second stint, the Knights are 3-11 ATS and only 1-13 straight up at home in conference. In their only win, they were a home favorite, but they've split the two times they've been favored at home, beating Indiana by 7 and losing outright in 2020 to Illinois as a 6 point favorite. Michigan State has had a rough go, and they are probably still emotionally recovering from the vicious thumping Washington's pass offense subjected them to, but in the past few weeks, there has been some reason for slight optimism. They took it on the chin from Maryland, but that was an early onslaught of turnovers and unlucky plays. For the vast majority of that game, they played pretty well and actually outgained the Terps. The following week, they outgained Iowa in Iowa City by more than 200 yards, only to be sunk by special teams miscues including a 70 yard punt return TD. Rutgers offense is nothing like Washington or even Maryland and the Knights rely heavily on the run game, but I don't know that I expect them to have a lot of success on the ground here. Michigan State held Iowa to almost nothing on the ground, and Maryland's top 2 running backs, Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton, combined for 50 yards rushing on 19 carries. Rutgers has done well on the ground in non-conference games, but Wisconsin completely stuffed them last week and even Northwestern held their running backs to 99 yards on 35(!!) carries. On the other side of the ball, I think the Spartans might be able to run on Rutgers. The Knights have been really good against the pass, but they've been a little leaky on ground, and Nate Carter is coming off a 100 yard game in Iowa City and Jalen Berger should be healthy this week for a solid one two punch. MSU was off last week, so they got a chance to catch their breath and probably gave them time to get Mark Dantonio back acclimated into game planning. Trust me, I know MSU is not an ideal team to be backing here, but in this spot, I think they have a shot to pull the outright against a Rutgers team that hardly ever plays well at home in conference. Even if they don't I don't think they'll be more than a score out of this one unless the turnover train comes to the station.


This one almost turned into a disaster. MSU gave the game to Rutgers, but they were good enough during the first 50 minutes to cover.

 

[B.A.R.]

Starting out with a "hold ya nose" game.

Love it!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Starting out with a "hold ya nose" game.

Love it!

Get ready for a couple other ones......

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Indiana +34(-113) @Michigan: After getting a bit of a wakeup call the past two weeks by actually leaving Ann Arbor and going on the road, I think the Wolverines might fall back into their slumber at home. The have an opportunity to beat the hell out of their little brother back on the road next week in East Lansing, so that will get them interested, but there's not much to get excited about when facing Tom Ace and the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn't been good, but when facing big underdog roles this year, they've played pretty well. They played very well defensively and hung with Ohio State in the opening week and played Louisville to pretty much a standstill on a neutral site a couple weeks later. In their 3 previous cracks at covering a 30+ point spread, they haven't topped 35 points in any of those games, and I'd suggest that Indiana has a better defense than ECU, UNLV and Bowling Green. Given the pace at which Michigan plays, you'd have to think the Hoosiers would be in good shape for the cover if they can manage a TD in any way shape or form in this one. I don't think Michigan is all that interested in showing much here, and if the Hoosiers can muster up even a sliver of competence, I think they should cover here.

Possible lesson: The bottom of the Big Ten is worse than the bottom third of the American, Mountain West or MAC.

 

[2daBank]

Always think it be a good week when your 1st play is one on my card! I really like sparty as well! Gl this week bro

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Georgia Southern +5.5 @James Madison: There's a couple of really good games in the Sun Belt this week, and this is one of them. JMU comes in undefeated, and Clay Helton's boys are 4-1 with the only loss coming at Wisconsin in a game they gave the Badgers fits. Last year, a better version of JMU came into their game with Georgia Southern undefeated and lost outright as a 12.5 point favorite. JMU is good again on defense, and is totally elite at stopping the run. Nobody can run on the Dukes, but that's kind of irrelevant in this game because Georgia Southern, although capable, hardly ever runs, and probably won't try to run all that much in this one. That makes sense because they should be able to throw on JMU all day. In 5 games, JMU has allowed only 193 yards rushing, but they've been burned for more than 1500 passing yards. The past 4 weeks, the pass offenses of Virginia, Utah State, Troy and South Alabama torched the Dukes for 377, 402, 333 and 299 yards and a combined 8.2 yards per attempt. Prior to the start of the season, nobody would accuse any of those teams of having explosive pass offenses, and this might be the most efficient pass offense JMU has played. Offensively, JMU has been competitive, but they can't run it(101st) so they'll be relying on the diminutive Jordan McCloud to carry the offense. He's been able to make some big plays, but if he doesn't, JMU has been terrible on 3rd down, ranking 132nd in the country there, while that's one of the strengths of the GSU defense. It's a really god matchup for the Eagles here, and they matched up really well last year as well, so I'll take the points in this one.

Bad call here. I was surprised Georgia Southern was so non-competitive early. Might have underestimated the revenge angle because JMU was laser focused on this one. Yardage totals regressed to the mean, but it was mostly garbage time. JMU was never in any danger of not covering.

 

[C-MAN]

Excellent stuff as always. Mich St a good dog ML opportunity.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Maryland -13.5(-115) v Illinois: Now that you can get this under 14(and you might not have to buy it soon) I like this play for the Terps. It's typically not a good idea to fade Bielema in this role, as he's 6-1 as a conference road dog since he got to Illinois, but this team is drastically different from the first two he had, and their results on the scoreboard are worse than their stats look for a reason. They make boneheaded mistakes in all phases, and that's a departure from how well coached they looked in the first two years. Also, their offensive line is absolutely putrid. They can't run the ball, and they have no chance to be explosive in the pass game because they have had the equivalent of 5 turnstiles when they try to pass block. They're 118th in sacks allowed and Maryland gets to the passer, so I don't see how they'll improve in that regard. They are down to their 4th and 5th string RBs, although both have looked pretty good in their limited action. Defensively, when they play Big Ten West style offenses they are passable, but add any kind of explosiveness and they're in trouble. The LBs are slow and they can't get any pressure on the QB(117th in sacks). Maryland doesn't allow any pressure on Tagovailoa, so he'll have all day to hit Jones, Dyches and others against an Illinois secondary that has struggled to cover after losing their whole secondary to the NFL. I hope I'm wrong, because Bielema really needs to stop the bleeding, but there has been no evidence that Illinois will have any success in this kind of matchup.

I was happily wrong here...and I mean way off. Lots of the issues Illinois has had still were evident, but MD just stunk out loud all game long. I was unaware of the late injuries for MD. Nice win for Bielema, and Illinois remains potent as a significant road dog in the Big Ten.

 

[spottie2935]

I know Illinois looks so terrible but this line is so ripe for ILL.

the Last 3 game they were small favorites and lost all 3 before those games at Home vs. Penn St only +14. Before that @ Kansas and +3.5 there. No covers on the season.

Maryland was only -14 at home to Indy. Well since Illinois was favorites last 3 against FAU, Purdue and Nebraska that makes Illinois +14 way better than Indy +14 at Maryland.

I look at lines and a bit of bettors intuition and no one likes Illinois this week. The books lined this game knowing it. I like Illinois +

With you on MSU they have a real good chance at ML this week. Rutgers schedule so weak but MSU is just a notch better than some of their past opponents thats why this line is +5.. Rutgers previous home favorite lines this season: -5 to Northwestern, -7.5 to Temple, -6.5 to Va. Tech, -46 to WAGner this doesnt count. MSU is up in class compared to Rutgers last home games

 

[Br@ssknux]

I know Illinois looks so terrible but this line is so ripe for ILL.

the Last 3 game they were small favorites and lost all 3 before those games at Home vs. Penn St only +14. Before that @ Kansas and +3.5 there. No covers on the season.

Maryland was only -14 at home to Indy. Well since Illinois was favorites last 3 against FAU, Purdue and Nebraska that makes Illinois +14 way better than Indy +14 at Maryland.

I look at lines and a bit of bettors intuition and no one likes Illinois this week. The books lined this game knowing it. I like Illinois +

With you on MSU they have a real good chance at ML this week. Rutgers schedule so weak but MSU is just a notch better than some of their past opponents thats why this line is +5.. Rutgers previous home favorite lines this season: -5 to Northwestern, -7.5 to Temple, -6.5 to Va. Tech, -46 to WAGner this doesnt count. MSU is up in class compared to Rutgers last home games

Totally agree with everything you say here and I go into this as a biased Illinois alum. I know of quite a few sharp people that are on Illinois here and I completely understand the logic behind it. If I was a neutral party, expecting that team to do what college football teams usually do, I would be on Illinois myself, as I've mentioned how good they've been in this role. But for things to go well for the Illini here, they will still need to block. They can't. They will still need to cover people. They won't. They'll need to have some level of efficiency on offense, and they have proven they cannot operate with any. Again, I really hope I'm wrong. I'll actually be happy even if they lose but cover because it will be a sign of at least some progress.

 

[spottie2935]

Totally agree with everything you say here and I go into this as a biased Illinois alum. I know of quite a few sharp people that are on Illinois here and I completely understand the logic behind it. If I was a neutral party, expecting that team to do what college football teams usually do, I would be on Illinois myself, as I've mentioned how good they've been in this role. But for things to go well for the Illini here, they will still need to block. They can't. They will still need to cover people. They won't. They'll need to have some level of efficiency on offense, and they have proven they cannot operate with any. Again, I really hope I'm wrong. I'll actually be happy even if they lose but cover because it will be a sign of at least some progress.

The reason I like sport gambling is the books continually find opportunities to get bad covering teams better spots to cover. The team that struggles has to find a way to get it done. Will they? I have no clue, I just count on my methodology to get me my wins.

Thanks for the comment, best wishes

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Bowling Green +4 @Buffalo: I typically try to avoid writing up MAC games because things so seldom go anywhere close to what you'd expect, but if I'm going to write one up, it might as well be on a dog. This one jumped out at me because I noticed just how skewed the final score was of Buffalo's 37-13 win last week over Central Michigan. Buffalo was a 4 point home dog in that one, and crazy things happened, leading them to a runaway win in a game in which they were outgained and out first downed, but benefitted from a +5 mark in the turnover battle, including two defensive TDs. Now they face a BG squad as a home favorite, a role they are 2-6 in since Lance Leipold moved on to greener pastures. The schedules that these two teams have played are not comparable, but their overall statistics are. The FBS teams that BG has played are Miami(OH), Ohio, Michigan, Liberty and Georgia Tech. By most measures, the weakest team they've played is Miami, which would probably be the second toughest team on Buffalo's schedule so far. Despite that schedule BG has given up only 360 yards per game, almost 100 per game fewer than Buffalo has against a far inferior schedule. They've both played Liberty, with BG hanging tough with the Flames in Lynchburg (lost 34-24) while Buffalo was shown the door immediately in Buffalo 55-27 as the Flames outgained the Bulls by 200+ yards. I realize the transitive property is not valid, but we see a trend here in the level of competition the two teams have played. I'm thinking that I have the better team with 4 points in my pocket, so I'll take it.

Nailed this one. BG defense was dominant. Schedule difference was evident here.

 

[spottie2935]

5. Bowling Green +4 @Buffalo: I typically try to avoid writing up MAC games because things so seldom go anywhere close to what you'd expect, but if I'm going to write one up, it might as well be on a dog. This one jumped out at me because I noticed just how skewed the final score was of Buffalo's 37-13 win last week over Central Michigan. Buffalo was a 4 point home dog in that one, and crazy things happened, leading them to a runaway win in a game in which they were outgained and out first downed, but benefitted from a +5 mark in the turnover battle, including two defensive TDs. Now they face a BG squad as a home favorite, a role they are 2-6 in since Lance Leipold moved on to greener pastures. The schedules that these two teams have played are not comparable, but their overall statistics are. The FBS teams that BG has played are Miami(OH), Ohio, Michigan, Liberty and Georgia Tech. By most measures, the weakest team they've played is Miami, which would probably be the second toughest team on Buffalo's schedule so far. Despite that schedule BG has given up only 360 yards per game, almost 100 per game fewer than Buffalo has against a far inferior schedule. They've both played Liberty, with BG hanging tough with the Flames in Lynchburg (lost 34-24) while Buffalo was shown the door immediately in Buffalo 55-27 as the Flames outgained the Bulls by 200+ yards. I realize the transitive property is not valid, but we see a trend here in the level of competition the two teams have played. I'm thinking that I have the better team with 4 points in my pocket, so I'll take it.

I like this play. I dug into the data and found a lot of support for BGU. What I have discovered about the MAC is in past seasons some of the Bottom of the barrel teams are really bad so when the lines reach -17 or higher the favorite dominate and smaller lines like this, there is huge dog support. Thats is the case here. I am going to add this play in my huge batch of plays. Good play good luck.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Oregon +3.5(-119) @Washington: This line keeps creeping up, but i can't imagine you'll be able to get 3.5 without laying additional juice. I found an original +3 at -104 and bought to -119. I can't wait for this game as both of these teams have legitimate playoff hopes and played a fantastic game last year, which Washington won in Eugene as a double digit dog. The Washington pass game is relentless, as Huskie QB Michael Penix constantly fires the ball downfield and dares you to stop him. His receiving corps is the best in the country and they either catch it or get interfered with in most cases. I'm sure that Washington is going to get their points in this game, but so will Oregon, and I find the Ducks to be the more well rounded team. Both of these offenses are elite, with Washington leading the country in yards per play while Oregon is 4th. However, Oregon is also a dominant rushing team, and the Ducks will have a significant edge on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. I think the Huskies are going to have a tough time stopping the Oregon backs, be it either Bucky Irving, Jordan James or Noah Whittington, all of whom average more than 7 yards per carry and have scored multiple TDs. Oregon also grades out 11th in the country in coverage, and while this is obviously a huge step up for the Ducks pass defense compared to who they've played, it's easily also the best pass defense Penix has seen. The Ducks also thrive rushing the passer, ranking second in the country in sack rate. On the flip side, Washington's defense hasn't generated much pressure at all and has struggled in third downs(86th) against offenses not nearly as potent as this Duck attack. In the past, I've faded what we've called "Road Bo Nix" due to his famous struggles on the road while at Auburn. After a year and change, I think we can put that concept to rest. Nix has played 6 Pac 12 road games and the worst performance I can find was probably in last year's Civil War in Corvalis when he went 27-41 for 327 yards 2 TDs 0 picks. That's about as bad as it's been for him. I certainly don't relish going against this bonkers Washington offense, nor do I like fading Kalen DeBoer, but I think this is a matchup that Oregon has some edges in, and I trust the Ducks defense quite a bit more than I do the Huskies.

There's too much to say about this game. It was a classic. Oregon could easily have won it, but I'm just glad I had 3.5 in my pocket in this one. It was gonna come down to the wire one way or another.

 

[Timh]

I've been looking at Oregon as well Brass, think they definitely have the better defense and advtg. on the LOS. B0L this week!

 

[EL CAPO]

Totally agree with everything you say here and I go into this as a biased Illinois alum. I know of quite a few sharp people that are on Illinois here and I completely understand the logic behind it. If I was a neutral party, expecting that team to do what college football teams usually do, I would be on Illinois myself, as I've mentioned how good they've been in this role. But for things to go well for the Illini here, they will still need to block. They can't. They will still need to cover people. They won't. They'll need to have some level of efficiency on offense, and they have proven they cannot operate with any. Again, I really hope I'm wrong. I'll actually be happy even if they lose but cover because it will be a sign of at least some progress.

i can confim illinois can't block. i backed them vs purdue, - everyone thinks they can still run because they have for the past 5 years. Even the shitty illinois teams of lovie could run well. this team can't. The beliema run brand is done. This team sucks. I'm not sure they are the same team they were in previous instances in this role.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. @Wisconsin -9.5 v Iowa: Although I obviously know what can happen when you combine an opportunistic defense like Iowa's against a mistake prone QB like Tanner Mordecai, I just think the circumstances are stacked enough against Iowa here that they are very likely to be overwhelmed. Backup QB Deacon Hill has played about a game and a half since Cade McNamara was humanely sent off to a nice farm in the country so he can run free. In those 6 or so quarters, he's completed 21-54 passes(that's 37.5% completions) for less than 5 yards per attempt, or basically par for the course for an Iowa quarterback. His ONLY and I mean ONLY weapon is TE Erick All, who is the latest iteration of the only thing going for Iowa offensively. It was Luke Lachey earlier this year and it was Sam LaPorta last year. Now it's All. Hill completed 6 passes in 21 attempts against Purdue last week and All caught 5 of them. I am hoping beyond hope that Luke Fickell will recognize that All is the only option Hill looks for and bracket the guy, something I thought Ryan Walters and Kevin Kane would figure out last week but was dismayed to learn they did not. This will be Hill's first foray on the road, and that will likely not go well for him, much like things didn't go well for Iowa the last time they went on the road in an intimidating environment. In that case, they gained a grand total of 76 yards and were shut out by Penn State. I don't think they'll be that anemic against Wisconsin, as the Badgers are good but not THAT good on defense, but I can see 145 total yards and 3 points. On offense, Braelon Allen should be able to run on the Hawkeyes, as they've been merely mediocre against the run the past two weeks. Ultimately, it's pretty clear that there is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will have any success on offense in this game. It's also pretty clear that Wisconsin should be able to run effectively in this game. That means if you were to justify a bet on Iowa, you would have to bank on a certainty that strange things would happen in their favor to turn the tide. Although I know the capability for that exists, I just don't think that's likely to happen here. I trust Fickell to take care of business here.

Laying points with this Wisconsin team was a horrific idea. Especially against that defense. Wow, what a bonehead call this was. I pounded the shit out of Iowa in game after a couple Wisconsin drives. Mordecai had no chance. Both offenses are atrocious, but Iowa seems to keep breaking 80 yard runs somehow.

 

[KJ]

7. @Wisconsin -9.5 v Iowa: Although I obviously know what can happen when you combine an opportunistic defense like Iowa's against a mistake prone QB like Tanner Mordecai, I just think the circumstances are stacked enough against Iowa here that they are very likely to be overwhelmed. Backup QB Deacon Hill has played about a game and a half since Cade McNamara was humanely sent off to a nice farm in the country so he can run free. In those 6 or so quarters, he's completed 21-54 passes(that's 37.5% completions) for less than 5 yards per attempt, or basically par for the course for an Iowa quarterback. His ONLY and I mean ONLY weapon is TE Erick All, who is the latest iteration of the only thing going for Iowa offensively. It was Luke Lachey earlier this year and it was Sam LaPorta last year. Now it's All. Hill completed 6 passes in 21 attempts against Purdue last week and All caught 5 of them. I am hoping beyond hope that Luke Fickell will recognize that All is the only option Hill looks for and bracket the guy, something I thought Ryan Walters and Kevin Kane would figure out last week but was dismayed to learn they did not. This will be Hill's first foray on the road, and that will likely not go well for him, much like things didn't go well for Iowa the last time they went on the road in an intimidating environment. In that case, they gained a grand total of 76 yards and were shut out by Penn State. I don't think they'll be that anemic against Wisconsin, as the Badgers are good but not THAT good on defense, but I can see 145 total yards and 3 points. On offense, Braelon Allen should be able to run on the Hawkeyes, as they've been merely mediocre against the run the past two weeks. Ultimately, it's pretty clear that there is no evidence to suggest that Iowa will have any success on offense in this game. It's also pretty clear that Wisconsin should be able to run effectively in this game. That means if you were to justify a bet on Iowa, you would have to bank on a certainty that strange things would happen in their favor to turn the tide. Although I know the capability for that exists, I just don't think that's likely to happen here. I trust Fickell to take care of business here.

Wind game, I see a bunch of scrums all game long lol. I'm on Iowa +10 and a little ML simply because I don't think either team will throw the ball unless they want to waste a down.

GL tomorrow brass, agreeing on most, just not this one.

 

[2daBank]

Wind game, I see a bunch of scrums all game long lol. I'm on Iowa +10 and a little ML simply because I don't think either team will throw the ball unless they want to waste a down.

GL tomorrow brass, agreeing on most, just not this one.

It’s so crazy iowa te has cashed his prop every week besides when Lachey got hurt. All caught all but 1 their completions last week!! I dunno how long that can keep up before teams start bracketing te? Havnt looked at his number cause the weather combined w the assumption these dc’s gotta actually watch film and see te the only passing game iowa has and just maybe they should take that away!!! Pen st did it but not till after All had a nice 1st drive until fumbling his last batch of night, after that they took him away. I’d think wiscy would take a little focus off run game to actually cover te, seems easy enough if you know he the only reliable target! Lol

 

[KJ]

It’s so crazy iowa te has cashed his prop every week besides when Lachey got hurt. All caught all but 1 their completions last week!! I dunno how long that can keep up before teams start bracketing te? Havnt looked at his number cause the weather combined w the assumption these dc’s gotta actually watch film and see te the only passing game iowa has and just maybe they should take that away!!! Pen st did it but not till after All had a nice 1st drive until fumbling his last batch of night, after that they took him away. I’d think wiscy would take a little focus off run game to actually cover te, seems easy enough if you know he the only reliable target! Lol

Maybe a bunch of wind actually makes the backup QB for Iowa more accurate? They have no business throwing the ball more than 8 times tomorrow.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Maybe a bunch of wind actually makes the backup QB for Iowa more accurate? They have no business throwing the ball more than 8 times tomorrow.

LOL, I think I remember someone saying that about Petras last year....maybe the wind will blow the errant balls back on track.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Georgia State ML(-114) v Marshall: One thing you can't help but notice when you watch Marshall this year is how remarkably bad they are against the run. A couple weeks ago, I played Old Dominion as a dog against the Thundering Herd, and every time I turned around there was a 30 second drive where ODU broke a 65 yard run for a TD. When the dust settled, Marshall had given up 339 yards on 31 carries to the Monarchs. Previous to that they were torched on the ground by otherwise anemic ECU QB Mason Garcia and Kyron Drones of Virginia Tech both of whom sailed over 100 rushing yards if you subtract sacks. VT's Brayshul Tuten, who otherwise can't crack 4 yards a carry, totaled 88 yards on 9 carries against the Herd. Darren Grainger and Georgia State are definitely capable of uncorking a few long runs themselves, and their WRs have been explosive as well. Marshall defends the pass well, but this is the best pass defense they've played. Also, Marshall's bread and butter is running the ball with Rasheem Ali, but GSU has been stout against the run. If they need QB Cam Fancher(he of the 6/5 ratio and 6.3 yards per attempt) to win this game for them offensively, I like my chances.

Good job Panthers. Overcame a 2nd half lull to put the game away.

 

[KJ]

8. @Georgia State ML(-114) v Marshall: One thing you can't help but notice when you watch Marshall this year is how remarkably bad they are against the run. A couple weeks ago, I played Old Dominion as a dog against the Thundering Herd, and every time I turned around there was a 30 second drive where ODU broke a 65 yard run for a TD. When the dust settled, Marshall had given up 339 yards on 31 carries to the Monarchs. Previous to that they were torched on the ground by otherwise anemic ECU QB Mason Garcia and Kyron Drones of Virginia Tech both of whom sailed over 100 rushing yards if you subtract sacks. VT's Brayshul Tuten, who otherwise can't crack 4 yards a carry, totaled 88 yards on 9 carries against the Herd. Darren Grainger and Georgia State are definitely capable of uncorking a few long runs themselves, and their WRs have been explosive as well. Marshall defends the pass well, but this is the best pass defense they've played. Also, Marshall's bread and butter is running the ball with Rasheem Ali, but GSU has been stout against the run. If they need QB Cam Fancher(he of the 6/5 ratio and 6.3 yards per attempt) to win this game for them offensively, I like my chances.

On it too, another game that looks like massive winds. All about controlling the LOS

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Auburn +11.5 @LSU: The major strength of the Auburn defense is their pass coverage as CB DJ James and especially Jaylin Simpson, who played corner last year and has moved to safety this year, are among the highest graded secondary guys in the country per PFF. Last year, Auburn blew a 17-0 lead against LSU, but they harassed Jaden Daniels into an 8/20 performance for only 80 yards. Auburn outgained LSU by more than 200 yards, but a defensive TD and other bad breaks allowed LSU to escape with a 21-17 win. The Auburn defense has many of the same guys back, and they were off last week, so Hugh Freeze has had 2 weeks to prepare to get something going on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, LSU has to be exhausted after 3 consecutive knock down drag outs with Arkansas, Ole Miss and Missouri.LSU's rush and pass defense are atrocious, so this might be the week that we see some progress from Freeze's scheme. If nothing else, Auburn should be able to run on LSU, as they have provided very little resistance against anyone this year. Auburn hasn't looked good on the road, but I think LSU will get a good effort from Auburn this week.

I have to stop with the "Auburn might be good" routine. How bad do you have to be to get flummoxed by the LSU defense?

 

[2daBank]

9. Auburn +11.5 @LSU: The major strength of the Auburn defense is their pass coverage as CB DJ James and especially Jaylin Simpson, who played corner last year and has moved to safety this year, are among the highest graded secondary guys in the country per PFF. Last year, Auburn blew a 17-0 lead against LSU, but they harassed Jaden Daniels into an 8/20 performance for only 80 yards. Auburn outgained LSU by more than 200 yards, but a defensive TD and other bad breaks allowed LSU to escape with a 21-17 win. The Auburn defense has many of the same guys back, and they were off last week, so Hugh Freeze has had 2 weeks to prepare to get something going on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, LSU has to be exhausted after 3 consecutive knock down drag outs with Arkansas, Ole Miss and Missouri.LSU's rush and pass defense are atrocious, so this might be the week that we see some progress from Freeze's scheme. If nothing else, Auburn should be able to run on LSU, as they have provided very little resistance against anyone this year. Auburn hasn't looked good on the road, but I think LSU will get a good effort from Auburn this week.

super square friend of mine who never knew what a prop was before i started talking to him about has decided he dont much need my omput any longer which totally cool with me since i generally got complaining text all game then rarely a thanks when the pklay won! lol.. anyways i guess ive made him a daniels fan since ive bet him so miuch last few years, so he telling me all day daniels passing prop a lock, i tried to tell him why i didnt like but ultimately just said "ill let you get that free money this week bro",, no chance i would bet daniels over here, you basically summed up why.. only 2 ways i see this, either lsu d finally has a good game vs what i think a terrible aub offense and they dont need that kind of game from him, or aub offense works and they eat a lot of clock and ugly this game up.. he cant hear me tho, he a proud degen who has found his lock!! i dont want him to lose but i tried urging him not to "go all in like he was saying",, lol,, game a pass for me but i get the play,,

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Air Force -11 v Wyoming: At this point, I think we have to just set the Falcons on auto play until they let us down. They have been a total machine so far this year, running efficiently like always and averaging 21 yards per attempt(!!) on the few occasions they've out the ball in the air. In heir last 3 games, they've scored TDs on 17 of their 24 possessions. Defensively, they've been very good also, and Wyoming does not have an offense that terrifies anyone. RB Harison Waylee has been very good, but he's banged up and might not even play. If he doesn't, that will be a huge blow for the Cowboys, as Waylee accounts for a large percentage of their production. I've been on Wyoming twice as a home dog, but I won't be backing them here on the road against these assassins from Air Force.

Kudos to the Wyoming offense, who scored 27 points without Waylee. If you would hav told me Air Force scored 34 points, I would have assumed a cover.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Probably 3 or 4 more tomorrow AM.

 

[2daBank]

10. @Air Force -11 v Wyoming: At this point, I think we have to just set the Falcons on auto play until they let us down. They have been a total machine so far this year, running efficiently like always and averaging 21 yards per attempt(!!) on the few occasions they've out the ball in the air. In heir last 3 games, they've scored TDs on 17 of their 24 possessions. Defensively, they've been very good also, and Wyoming does not have an offense that terrifies anyone. RB Harison Waylee has been very good, but he's banged up and might not even play. If he doesn't, that will be a huge blow for the Cowboys, as Waylee accounts for a large percentage of their production. I've been on Wyoming twice as a home dog, but I won't be backing them here on the road against these assassins from Air Force.

It’s the defense AF plays that I think makes them so special, think they 6th in the country in ypp, right behind all the power 5 teams you would expect who play lock down d. It so hard for me to lay points against wyo as they one my fav dog teams but I just dunno how they score points?

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Pitt +7 v Louisville: We're a little out of chronological order here, but only by a half hour. Obviously Louisville looked great last week against Notre Dame and they're undefeated, but a closer look at what they've done will tell you they are ripe for a loss here, or at least an uneven game. They've already played a few uneven games, and you can say that when they've played away from Papa Johns Cardinal stadium, they've all been uneven games. They had to make a furious comeback on a neutral against Georgia Tech in the opener with the help of a 74 yard 1 play drive on a busted play, they had to withstand a goal-line stand from Indiana to hang on in the final minutes at another neutral site and they had to rely on NC State's terrible offense to implode to sneak out of Raleigh with a 3 point win. Now they travel to Pittsburgh off a field storming win and have to get up for Pitt in a horrendous spot before a bye. There's no doubt Pitt has been terrible, and they've burned me already this year a couple times, but they've extricated themselves from the Phil Jurkovec nightmare at QB and they've had a bye week to prepare for this one. Pitt was actually picked by many to finish in the top 3 of the ACC, so there is plenty of talent there. Defensively. they've stopped the run well(for the most part) and have been able to get pressure on the QB, which is good because Jack Plummer is prone to mistakes when he's uncomfortable. This road favorite role is not Jeff Brohm's forte, so I think this might be a pretty bad spot for the Cards. I know I'm not the only clown who sees value here, but it's a spot that really has to be played.

Louisville isn't good enough to win a game like this. Brohm clearly not comfortable in that role.

 

[Br@ssknux]

It’s the defense AF plays that I think makes them so special, think they 6th in the country in ypp, right behind all the power 5 teams you would expect who play lock down d. It so hard for me to lay points against wyo as they one my fav dog teams but I just dunno how they score points?

Agreed Bank, and if Waylee is banged up or doesn't play, they'll have to have a magician on the sidelines or something. Wyoming get extra juice from playing at home, maybe as much as anyone. I love backing them and I'm a huge fan of Craig Bohl, but on the road in this spot I think they're behind the 8 ball.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Notre Dame -2.5 v USC: The obvious question here is trying to figure out if USC has been playing possum, because their recent results against the bottom half of the Pac 12 have been very concerning. They were objectively dominated by Arizona last week on their home field by a team playing with a backup QB who looked like he was about 5'7". They gave up 506 yards to the Cats and it was an equal opportunity gashing, as they surrendered 200 on the ground and 300 via the pass. Prior to that, they escaped Boulder with a 7 point win and allowed an Arizona State team that was previously a laughingstock with Drew Pyne at QB to hang around within a TD until very late. Notre Dame got blasted last week by Louisville in a terrible spot, and their potential fatigue in yet another big game for them is a concern, but I don't think Freeman will have to cajole them to get fired up for a visit from USC. USC's numbers, especially offensively, look great, with some of those teams on their schedule(Nevada, SJSU, Stanford) providing plenty of fuel for a pleasant looking stat profile, but this is easily the best defense that they've faced. ND is extremely good in the secondary and I don't expect USC to be able to run on the Irish like they did last year. The USC defense allowed Drew Pyne to go 23-26 for 300+ yards last year, and the defense is just as bad this year, only now they have to deal with Sam Hartman and a running game that is likely to run at will, considering what some of the other run offenses have done to the Trojans. Colorado is so bad running the ball that they hardly even try to run it and they managed almost 200 yards on the ground almost by accident against USC. Notre Dame completely bulldozed Ohio State's defense in this stadium, I expect the same to happen to this defense. The weather is going to be cold and damp, not ideal for what USC has been used to and USC also has a double revenge situation staring them in the face next week. Bad defense typically doesn't travel(or it does, I guess...not sure about that cliche). I think the Irish bounce back and take care of business here.

ND only ran 42 plays before kneel downs and won going away. Caleb Williams clearly doesn't like pressure. Those were some brazenly bad throws.

 

[2daBank]

Agreed Bank, and if Waylee is banged up or doesn't play, they'll have to have a magician on the sidelines or something. Wyoming get extra juice from playing at home, maybe as much as anyone. I love backing them and I'm a huge fan of Craig Bohl, but on the road in this spot I think they're behind the 8 ball.

I’ve taken wyo w points against AF more than once and gotten smoked for doing it every time, lol. I was telling @KJ the other day I remember one year I had wyo and they scored a late td I thought sealed the cover but no, of course the ultimate grind it out team bust a 80 yarder w hardly any time left to fuck me. Think I’ve had my fill of trying to beat AF in this matchup, lol.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Oregon State -3.5 v UCLA: Jonathan Smith has covered 14 of his last 15 home games, so I am not about to miss a chance to back the Beavers, especially in a spot where I like the matchup. I was all over UCLA last week in their home game against WAZZOU, and it was not even as close as the score would indicate. The Bruins completely dominated the Cougs, and the only reason it was close as it was was due to mistakes made by Donte Moore, the true freshman QB. The spot and difference in the level of play made it a moot point, but the spot gets worse this week. I think if Chip Kelly had his druthers, Donte Moore would not be starting, but one of the worst kept secrets in college football is that Moore would transfer if he wasn't playing, and that makes sense because we're talking about a Michigan kid who could have gone anywhere he wanted and he ended up at UCLA. I'm sure that Moore has made strides, but he's going into a hornets next similar to what he saw in Slat Lake as far as hostile environments. The Beaver defense isn't as good as Utah's but it certainly is much better in Corvalis than it's looked on the road. Also, UCLA's defense looked great last week in their first real test, but the difference in run games between the Beavs and the Cougs is like the difference in entertainment value between South Park or Family Guy or The Simpsons, or virtually anything funny vs Bob's Burgers. In addition, DJU has played very well lately and has two receivers in Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden who are averaging close to 3 yards per route run (more than 2 is considered explosive) and their tight end Jack Veiling has 5 TD catches as well. If UCLA goes in there and covers this, I'll stand up and take notice, but this is a hell of an ask for UCLA to go in there and play the beavers to the wire with a true freshman QB, no matter how good he's going to be.

Behold the ATM that is Jonathan Smith at home.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Might add one or two more. I'll be back later on this AM

 

[2daBank]

13. @Oregon State -3.5 v UCLA: Jonathan Smith has covered 14 of his last 15 home games, so I am not about to miss a chance to back the Beavers, especially in a spot where I like the matchup. I was all over UCLA last week in their home game against WAZZOU, and it was not even as close as the score would indicate. The Bruins completely dominated the Cougs, and the only reason it was close as it was was due to mistakes made by Donte Moore, the true freshman QB. The spot and difference in the level of play made it a moot point, but the spot gets worse this week. I think if Chip Kelly had his druthers, Donte Moore would not be starting, but one of the worst kept secrets in college football is that Moore would transfer if he wasn't playing, and that makes sense because we're talking about a Michigan kid who could have gone anywhere he wanted and he ended up at UCLA. I'm sure that Moore has made strides, but he's going into a hornets next similar to what he saw in Slat Lake as far as hostile environments. The Beaver defense isn't as good as Utah's but it certainly is much better in Corvalis than it's looked on the road. Also, UCLA's defense looked great last week in their first real test, but the difference in run games between the Beavs and the Cougs is like the difference in entertainment value between South Park or Family Guy or The Simpsons, or virtually anything funny vs Bob's Burgers. In addition, DJU has played very well lately and has two receivers in Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden who are averaging close to 3 yards per route run (more than 2 is considered explosive) and their tight end Jack Veiling has 5 TD catches as well. If UCLA goes in there and covers this, I'll stand up and take notice, but this is a hell of an ask for UCLA to go in there and play the beavers to the wire with a true freshman QB, no matter how good he's going to be.

Little disagreement here although I certainly respect your stance and agree w many points. I typically love playing beavers at home myself, love the coach, where we differ is I’m not so ready to buy into DJ U as you seem to be, for me no matter what jersey you put on this kid when you get pressure on him he is not good, ucla leads the nation in pressure rate so I suspect we will see just as much ugly from DJ as we could from the bruins kid who I think has way more upside than DJ. I do agree with you trusting him in this environment is a dicey proposition to day the least, I’d like to think he learned from that trip to utah and as you pointed out i could prob make some funny comparisons to what beavers pass d is compared to utes d!! All that said I’m not sure if ucla can stop the beavers run game, I’m in agreement this a much different test than stopping wazzu all flash no power offense and I also think bruins most likely won’t be running the ball as effectively vs beavers so yes this game could rest more on bruins very green very talented qb than maybe it will on DJ who I think more likely to have the benefit of a good run game in this one.

All that said My biggest play here isn’t a side, given both our takes my favorite play is Moore ov 221.5 passing yards. That seems insanely low to me regardless how this game goes i feel like he will hit this number. Unless beavers just eat the entire clock and ucla never has the ball which I don’t really think happens. I’d actually be perfectly happy for beavers to take a lead and you win your bet cause think that just ensures I get more passes against a pass d I’m pretty confident he can gain yards against. I took the points small but I’d much rather cash the Moore prop and let you have the side!!

You gotta be playing the ducks/udub game don’t ya? Hoping to see your thoughts there even tho im already dug in on huskies out of pure belief this a special team more than lot of things I could argue favor ducks! Lol. Gl this week, always enjoy your thread!

 

[M.W.]

super square friend of mine who never knew what a prop was before i started talking to him about has decided he dont much need my omput any longer which totally cool with me since i generally got complaining text all game then rarely a thanks when the pklay won! lol.. anyways i guess ive made him a daniels fan since ive bet him so miuch last few years, so he telling me all day daniels passing prop a lock, i tried to tell him why i didnt like but ultimately just said "ill let you get that free money this week bro",, no chance i would bet daniels over here, you basically summed up why.. only 2 ways i see this, either lsu d finally has a good game vs what i think a terrible aub offense and they dont need that kind of game from him, or aub offense works and they eat a lot of clock and ugly this game up.. he cant hear me tho, he a proud degen who has found his lock!! i dont want him to lose but i tried urging him not to "go all in like he was saying",, lol,, game a pass for me but i get the play,,

Under?

 

[AliShaheed]

Good luck to you (and to me). Our cards are eerily similar...

 

[KJ]

Under?

Seems logical but hard to discount the potential for at least 2 short fields offered up by the Auburn offense

 

[2daBank]

Under?

I mean it would scare me but yea if you made me play it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. @Duke -3 v NC State: This line is crashing, as the juice is currently at -105 in a lot of spots and might be available at 2.5 soon. I'm assuming that is because people are assuming Riley Leonard is not going to play, but I'm making this bet under the assumption that they'll be going with backup QB Henry Bellin to make sure Leonard can have a shot to play at Florida State next week. The lookahead is a little bit of a concern in that regard, but not in the focus or effort in this game because Duke is coming off a bye and still sees themselves as a contender in the ACC. Belin is obviously a downgrade from Leonard as a leader, but when he's played (albeit against nobody in mop up duty) he's been effective, going 8-8 for 14 yards per attempt. I also took a look at their spring game, and he's well regarded. Also, throwing the ball hasn't really been Duke's forte. They've leaned on their running game and it's served them well, especially at home. NC State comes in having made a change last week at QB, going from the failed Brennan Armstrong experiment back to MJ Morris who had some success last year. I touched on this in the writeup last week for their game against Marshall, but Morris is a mixed bag. Last week was no exception. The Wolfpack piled up 48 points, but somehow did it with only 401 total yards and with Morris throwing 3 picks. Now Morris has to go on the road against a Mike Elko defense coming off a bye with recent tape on him. If not for ND's miracle cover against him two weeks ago, Elko would be 8-2 ATS at home, and NC State has been terrible on the road, going 1-6 ATS since the beginning of last year. I expect Morris to display the mistakes this week rather than the big plays, as Duke 15th overall in yards per play against, 3rd in yards per pass attempt against and 7th overall in coverage on PFF. I trust the Blue Devils to get this handled at a short number, even without Leonard.

This was my best call of the week. Easy winner.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15 UAB +9 @UTSA: I can tell you that this is a bet I did NOT anticipate making coming into the year. Trent Dilfer is complete dipshit, but you can see the progress that his team is making, well...on offense anyway. They started out the season taking their lumps but two weeks ago they burned me when they totally hung with Tulane AT Tulane, which pretty much everyone has had problems with in recent years. I turned that game on to see for myself how they were hanging in, and they impressed me. They were feisty, and their offense had some imagination and logic to it. Defensively, they were a bit overmatched, but they played hard and made Pratt work for what he got. Last week they played a USF team on a roll and completely demolished them. Now they go on the road to play a RoadRunner team that is nowhere near as good as we thought coming in. Despite playing a mediocre schedule, their counting stats are merely average to below average. They've already lost at home to an Army team that was in transition to a completely new scheme, hasn't won since and already had a loss to Louisiana Monroe on it's resume. Last week they won, but gave up 542 yards to Temple. Tennessee completely dispatched of them in a sleepy spot, running for 300 yards and 9.5 yards per carry in the process. Jeff Traylor has lost 2 OCs and I believe at least 1 DC in the past 2 years, and it looks like it's catching up to him. If these teams play like they have in recent weeks, I think UTSA should be on upset alert here.

When you know for a fact the coach is a dipshit, what does that make you if you bet on said dipshit? That's correct! An even bigger dipshit.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Close but did not make it:

Purdue +18---Just couldn't quite justify the offense being able to put up enough points in this one, though I think OSU is ripe in this one with PSU on deck.

Thought about Arkansas catching 20, as they've covered already in similar spots, but too many injury whispers there.

I probably should have played South Carolina because Florida is so bad on the road, but they're plucky as dogs sometimes and I hate South Carolina's defense.

Mitch Griffis is one of the worst QBs in the FBS, but I couldn't get comfortable laying points with Brent Pry, even though I can see VT winning this one rather easily

Oklahoma State has been money as a home dog, and I don't know that Jason bean can be solid two weeks in a row, but Alan Bowman is terrible and OSU already had a breakout home dog game, so not sure they could do it two weeks in a row.

I like Arizona out in Pullman. They are making progress on defense and they don't have to worry about stopping the run. But Cam Ward is different at home and Dickert has tape on Fofita now. Probably should have played the Cats though.

Texas Tech seemed too easy as a short home favorite.

Also considered Miami, but there's so much variance with those two teams that it seemed silly to take a side.


Hope everybody does well!!

 

[Br@ssknux]

South Carolina now a dog at +1. Florida is an automatic go against for me as a road favorite. Not sure why it’s moved but that’s a play for me.

 

[C-MAN]

Have a day Brass

 

[spottie2935]

Some great plays today :cheers3:

 

[Br@ssknux]

South Carolina now a dog at +1. Florida is an automatic go against for me as a road favorite. Not sure why it’s moved but that’s a play for me.

Then they went back to -1.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8-7 day. Some of the worst forced plays of the year. (Wisconsin and Auburn for sure) Need to stop doing that. Better than 0-15 though, and I’m glad the Illini got off the scneid.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Some great plays today :cheers3:

Thanks Spottie. Some boneheaded ones too.

 

[carolinablue]

8-7 day. Some of the worst forced plays of the year. (Wisconsin and Auburn for sure) Need to stop doing that. Better than 0-15 though, and I’m glad the Illini got off the scneid.

It’s funny I finished 10-10 today and part of me feels lucky it wasn’t 5-15 but the other part is mad it wasn’t 15-5 because so many today could have gone the other way, good and bad. I need to tighten things up a bit here in the second half. Best of luck the rest of the way!

 

[vegasvice]

13. @Oregon State -3.5 v UCLA: Jonathan Smith has covered 14 of his last 15 home games, so I am not about to miss a chance to back the Beavers, especially in a spot where I like the matchup. I was all over UCLA last week in their home game against WAZZOU, and it was not even as close as the score would indicate. The Bruins completely dominated the Cougs, and the only reason it was close as it was was due to mistakes made by Donte Moore, the true freshman QB. The spot and difference in the level of play made it a moot point, but the spot gets worse this week. I think if Chip Kelly had his druthers, Donte Moore would not be starting, but one of the worst kept secrets in college football is that Moore would transfer if he wasn't playing, and that makes sense because we're talking about a Michigan kid who could have gone anywhere he wanted and he ended up at UCLA. I'm sure that Moore has made strides, but he's going into a hornets next similar to what he saw in Slat Lake as far as hostile environments. The Beaver defense isn't as good as Utah's but it certainly is much better in Corvalis than it's looked on the road. Also, UCLA's defense looked great last week in their first real test, but the difference in run games between the Beavs and the Cougs is like the difference in entertainment value between South Park or Family Guy or The Simpsons, or virtually anything funny vs Bob's Burgers. In addition, DJU has played very well lately and has two receivers in Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden who are averaging close to 3 yards per route run (more than 2 is considered explosive) and their tight end Jack Veiling has 5 TD catches as well. If UCLA goes in there and covers this, I'll stand up and take notice, but this is a hell of an ask for UCLA to go in there and play the beavers to the wire with a true freshman QB, no matter how good he's going to be.

Behold the ATM that is Jonathan Smith at home.

Three inexplicable calls by the refs (no roughing the punter, a phantom rouging the quarterback on Oregon State, and no pass interference) almost derailed this bet. Dante Moore is clearly go against on the road but Kelly realized that and used Schlee, who fortunately hurt himself in the third quarter. If Schlee was still available in the 4th quarter it would have been a real nailbiter. I loved Oregon state too and it was a good pick and analysis.