Being that I really just focus on teams dogged 6 pts or higher the majority of the time, this week, doesn't look like I see anyone who I could actually put money on to win straight up. If I had to force some looks it would be:
Eastern Michigan +195
They just play everyone tough, some unexpectedly. 4 of their 5 games this year have been 1 possession games except for their 17pt win over Charlotte. Last year 7 of their games were one score games. Army can also find themselves in competitive games, see Tulane...UTEP (tied at HT)...and Buffalo. Thinking I'd rather just take the current line of 6 as an insurance factor, plus I don't see myself putting more than 1u on EMich and if I ML it I would have to put more than that on them because of the way I do my amounts. But they are a very experienced team with a very good mid-major coach and can definitely win.
UNLV +237
Both these defenses are so bad I think anything can happen. AF kids have to be resistant, but these last 4 games have been rough for them and especially coming off the emotional Navy game. UNLV should be able to move it here, doubt they can stop it much. Again, I can see myself taking Rebels with the pts, can see a competitive game.
Buffalo +172
Not quite the return I normally look for, would like it more if UB wasn't off that 7OT game, could have a hangover effect. If not could definitely see them winning here. Seem to be turning a corner and even though NIU has played well at times I am generally not high on that team.
Georgia Tech +180
Going against Canes after the big FSU win is 1 reason, GT has looked very strong this year is 2, last year was a misleading final is 3. But that Miami D is pretty good I think and if they are ready for this game pretty sure they win. I guess I'm putting it here because wouldn't be surprised if GT won, but doubt I will have money saying they will. Miami O will be challenge GT hasn't faced in quite a while.
Boise St +226
I've been pretty down on Boise this year since week 1 so would be surprising for me to take them here. I do think their defense will make life hard on SD St. Do not like the Boise QB situation at all however. I feel bad for Rypien. I'd rather just take the 7 and see what happens.
Arizona St +639
Last year was a laugher for Huskies, prior to that Az St had won 10 straight. This UW team is not among those 10 straight loss types obviously. Think that Az St is easily the best O Huskies have faced and if there are any chinks in the pass D armor it could show up here...if Wilkins has time to throw. He can cause problems with his legs as well, unfortunately also turnover prone. Can't make a case for Sun Devil D to stop UW much, the run D isn't good. Browning did struggle at CU which is probably the next best D he's faced this year. UW has gotten off to some slow road starts as well, at Rutgers, at Colorado, at Oregon St...if UW happens to start slow again in this one they could, maybe, probably not, but maybe be in for a game that is decided in the 4th qrt, something they haven't had to deal with yet this year.
Honestly not seeing MLs in my future this Saturday.
