So Syracuse beating Clemson. I’ve seen anything from +900-+1362 on this.
Trying to guess on upsets with these kind of payouts you usually are wrong on alot more than you are right on, but they feel oh so good when they hit and the payouts make up for some of the other misses.
I can’t just say I’m going to try this because “anything can happen, you never know” that isn’t any fun or interesting.
It’s actually really hard to make a credible case for Syracuse, no surprise. This is a tall order vs a team like Clemson for a team like Syracuse. If you have a flawed favorite, you can point to some things, but no flaws we've seen here with Clemson. So it is tougher to put together the hows and whys.
Last year Clemson beat Cuse 54-0, has the gap really shrunk that much? There isn’t much spin to put on a 54-0 blowout. Dungey was knocked out of that game in the first qrt with Cuse trailing 10-0. I don’t think that with Dungey Syracuse could’ve won the game, no. But he was leading the ACC in passing before that game. The week prior vs BC they got 532y on 73 plays and one before before that they upset VT with 561y on 100 plays! Vs Clemson they managed just 277y. A healthy Dungey really make that much difference in that game? Most likely not; some better production on O keeps Clemson O on the sideline a little more maybe Syracuse scores some and Clemson in turn gets a little less. Still pretty lopsided in all likelihood.
But this year we will get to see what a healthy Dungey can do vs the Clemson D. He is 5th in the nation in total O 354.5 ypg with 325 rush and 1802 pass. Now, Clemson has already played a QB better than Dungey, they faced Lamar Jackson and put the clamps down when it mattered. They also put the clamps down on Josh Jackson, Jarrett Stidham...all comers.
Clemson has showed up and delivered in the biggest games this year...vs Auburn, at Louisville, at Virginia Tech – all rather convincing wins for them. But the other run-of-the-mill opponents, vs BC they were tied 7-7 after 3qrt, vs Wake Forest they led just 14-0 at halftime.
Will Syracuse get the A game or B game treatment from Clemson. Does it matter? I think Syracuse is improved this year. Sure they lost at home to MTSU so after you are done laughing at that statement, I will say that how they played vs LSU and NCSt is encouraging. Sure LSU lost to Troy, but still this is Syracuse we are talking about and a D that was horrendous last year.
Syracuse D has been better than expected, the O has probably been a little underachieving.
Based off of last year the Cuse D had a low bar for improvement. This year they are playing better at every level. They added JUCO DE Alton Robinson in fall camp and he has had a nice impact. LBs Parris Bennett and Zaire Franklin were solid before and are playing better this year and the secondary is holding it’s own even without a top player S Antwan Cordy who unfortunately remains out. S Jordan Martin a grad trans from Toledo has been a little uneven, but is helping to ease the big loss or Cordy. CB hasn’t been bad, Frederick started 6 as a frosh last year and looks better this year. Right now that D is allowing 14 pts less than they did in 2016, of course some of the best offenses remain ahead on their schedule. And after allowing over 500ypg last year, they are yielding 358 currently. Their 3rd down conv D has been quite good (25%).
The OL is a pretty big concern facing Clemson who has probably the best DL in the nation. It’s a bad matchup for them and Dungey will have to be alert and make good decisions under pressure. There are some decent options for him to use in the passing game, to spread it around and not allow the D to isolate on a certain go-to or leading target. The running game is underwhelming most of the time. Hard to envision them having great success this week. Dungey will probably do the most damage on the ground with his legs.
To really try and stress a Clemson D I would want the Cuse O to be running as fast as possible and executed well, but after Babers promised to be faster this year they haven’t lived up to that yet.
So basically, I think Syracuse’s D will offer more resistance to Clemson’s O. A Friday night game vs a team they waxed last year might mean that Clemson is a little less interested than they have been vs the top teams they’ve played this year and if they are are little uninterested or less efficient on O as they have appeared vs BC or WF perhaps, then Syracuse could capitalize better than BC or WF could - think they have better tools on O to try and get that done. And that is really what it comes down to. The Syracuse O should be the best side of the ball for them, the potential is there, last week wasn’t bad, we’ve seen flashes, but as a whole to date this year their O hasn’t met the expectations of many for year 2 in this system. The ceiling is higher than where they are currently at - can that potential be realized vs a top tier team like Clemson? It's tough. One thing that some people have wondered about Clemson is there any weakness in the secondary? A weak secondary's best friend is a pass rush and Tigers have that. With Dungey's experience and decent receiving targets could test that secondary better than, say Louisville with Lamar Jackson, but he lacks the receivers that Syracuse has. Or Josh Jackson, but he doesn't have the experience of Dungey.
Obviously I like the cover ats, it is going to be incredibly hard to get the win. We shall see. I'm pretty pumped up for a competitive game. Hope it turns out that way and I'm not disappointed and embarrassed after the game with everyone here say "ha, that dude thought Syracuse could win". Sometimes you got to say fuck it and take some chances. Big upsets do happen and if you want to win when they happen you have to be willing to take some long shot chances.
nmyknees::recliner:
