Liking Eastern Mich the more I look into it. Same as last week with BGSU as Ohio has not impressed me to be laying over one score.
I am likely dropping Buffalo. I think I may play them with the pts, but way too unpredictable to say they will win.
Eastern Michigan is still a possibility. I think they are pretty even with Ohio. That is one thing I like to look for on these dogs, finding teams that in reality are fairly even and the game appears more like a toss-up than a 6, 7, 8, etc point spread.
EM and Ohio are tied for 4th in the MAC scoring O 32.3 ppg. Ohio did have to face Tennessee and only scored 19 there, but their scoring output also benefits from the 3 OT game vs Texas St (scored 32 in regulation 16 in OT).
Ohio is only 3.5ppg better scoring D in MAC rankings 26.2-29.2. Excluding week 1 OT vs Texas St, nobody has scored more than 28 on Bobcats (Vols). Excluding Missouri, nobody has scored more than 35 on EM (Toledo) - more on Toledo later.
These are huge improvements for EM. They are averaging 7 pts more than they did for 2015 and 17 pts better than 2014. On defense they are allowing 13 pts less than '15 and 11 pts better than '14.
Offensive yards gained EM avg 425, Ohio avg 424
Rushing ypc O EM 4.3, Ohio 4.4
Passing O EM 60% compl, Ohio 57% - EM 11-10 TD-INT, Ohio 10-4 - Pass eff O ranking EM #6, Ohio #8
Sacks allowed EM 4, Ohio 6
3rd down conv EM 44%, Ohio 37%
EM 26 of 28 redzone scores, 20 TDs - Ohio 28 of 34 redzone scores, 17 TDs (3 INT thrown in RZ)
*EM 2nd most INTs thrown, 3 more than 3rd place MAC team*
Defensive yards allowed EM avg 406, Ohio avg 355
Rushing ypc D EM 3.6, Ohio 3.2
Passing D EM 59% allowed, Ohio 64% - EM 13-4 TD-INT, Ohio 13-9 - Pass eff D ranking also EM #6, Ohio #8
Sacks EM 12, Ohio 25
Opponent 3rd down conv EM 43%, Ohio 34%
EM 18 of 23 redzone D, 14 TDs - Ohio 17 of 19, 14 TDs
*Ohio leads MAC in INTs gained and sacks* *Edit - Ohio leds the ncaa in sacks! 16 of their 25 was from the Tex St and Mia, Oh games for what that is worth*
Punt avg - EM #2, Ohio #3
FG kicking EM 80%, Ohio 78%
EM also has more plays of 20, 30, 40 and 50 yards than Ohio does (Ohio has more 10y+ plays).
Playing on the road this year shouldn't be an issue for EM, vs teams their own size they are 2-0 at Charlotte and BGSU, weaker squads than Ohio, but EM will have confidence playing away from home.
EM did lose to powerful Toledo last week, but halfway through the 4th qrt it was just an 8 pt game before falling 35-20. Toledo realistically should've had another score in that one, but it is very noteworthy that the avg score between EM and Toledo the last 4 years is 55.5-24.75. This year the ypp in this game 5.7-5.5 was essentially the same.
EM and Ohio have played one common opponent, BGSU. EM beat them 28-25, Ohio won 30-24. EM outgained them 474-456 (6.3-5.1 ypp), Ohio outgained them 386-367 (5.8-4.8). EM was -1 TO, Ohio was +3.
In the EM game, BG did miss a FG, but EM fumbled on the BG 22 on 1st down. EM killed the final 5:22 of the game.
In the Ohio game, BG was SOD at the 4 following 85y drive and also kicked a FG from the 2. BG onside kick failed, Ohio killed final 1:24.
Rarely do I ever go that indepth for any bet anymore. But we can see these teams are pretty even. The biggest risk is that EM has been prone to throwing INTs and Ohio has been good at getting them. Ohio is also good at rushing the passer.
Ohio has had two underwhelming games vs poor MAC teams. EM was fairly competitive with an elite MAC team last week and also beat one of the same poor MAC teams Ohio did, arguably better than Ohio beat BG.
Perhaps the biggest fear is that Solich will be preaching to his kids how much better they need to play, they must in essence step it up. He knows that the last two games isn't going to be good enough. So on one hand, Ohio is likely to not rest on the laurels, they also see Eastern Michigan coming in, a historic doormat so they likely won't be too inspired to raise the level this week as maybe they would vs a better opponent. And for EM, this is a team that is hungry after being starved for success for years. They have tasted wins and been competitive this year. Off a loss, where they may be able to take some inspiration from playing Toledo tough, it may be more likely that EM steps up their game this week.
Seems like a strong candidate. We don't necessarily need EM to play over their heads here to get the win. Really I think we just need each team to play to their average level and need EM to take care of the football and EM has a good chance at the win.