Week 6 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Oct 7 Thu 2021

6:30 PM
303Houston-4½
-115		O 62½
-110
304Tulane+4½
-105		U 62½
-110
6:30 PM
305Coastal Carolina-17½
-111		O 69½
-115
306Arkansas State+17½
-109		U 69½
-105
Oct 8 Fri 2021

6:00 PM
307Temple+28
-115		O 53
-108
308Cincinnati-28
-105		U 53
-112
6:00 PM
309Charlotte-3½
+100		O 58½
-110
310Florida International+3½
-120		U 58½
-110
9:30 PM
311Stanford+10
-108		O 52½
-105
312Arizona State-10
-112		U 52½
-115
Oct 9 Sat 2021

11:00 AM
315Michigan State-5
-115		O 51
-110
316Rutgers+5
-105		U 51
-110
11:00 AM
323Maryland+20
-105		O 67½
-105
324Ohio State-20
-115		U 67½
-115
11:00 AM
325Akron+12½
-105		O 45
-110
326Bowling Green-12½
-115		U 45
-110
11:00 AM
327Northern Illinois+12½
-105		O 54½
-110
328Toledo-12½
-115		U 54½
-110
11:00 AM
331Georgia Tech-3
-110		O 58½
-115
332Duke+1 Markets+3
-110		U 58½
-105
11:00 AM
351South Carolina+9½
-103		O 52½
-110
352Tennessee+1 Markets-9½
-117		U 52½
-110
11:00 AM
361West Virginia+2½
-102		O 45
-105
362Baylor+1 Markets-2½
-118		U 45
-115
11:00 AM
369Vanderbilt+39
-110		O 57
-110
370Florida+1 Markets-39
-110		U 57
-110
11:00 AM
379Oklahoma-3½
-111		O 63½
-105
380Texas+1 Markets+3½
-109		U 63½
-115
11:00 AM
389Arkansas+5½
-110		O 65½
-110
390Mississippi+1 Markets-5½
-110		U 65½
-110
1:00 PM
343Old Dominion+20
-110		O 62
-120
344Marshall-20
-110		U 62
+100
2:00 PM
337Virginia+2½
-113		O 66½
-115
338Louisville+1 Markets-2½
-107		U 66½
-105
2:30 PM
313Florida State+16½
-115		O 64
-105
314North Carolina+1 Markets-16½
-105		U 64
-115
2:30 PM
317Connecticut-1½
-115		O 55½
-105
318Massachusetts+1½
-105		U 55½
-115
2:30 PM
319Wake Forest-7
-102		O 57
-110
320Syracuse+1 Markets+7
-118		U 57
-110
2:30 PM
333Ball State+11
-105		O 55½
-110
334Western Michigan+1 Markets-11
-115		U 55½
-110
2:30 PM
335Middle Tennessee State+19½
-110		O 58
-110
336Liberty-19½
-110		U 58
-110
2:30 PM
341Boise State+3½
-120		O 55
-105
342BYU+1 Markets-3½
+100		U 55
-115
2:30 PM
345San Jose Statepk
-115		O 46
-110
346Colorado State+1 Marketspk
-105		U 46
-110
2:30 PM
353SMU-14½
-105		O 58½
-110
354Navy+14½
-115		U 58½
-110
2:30 PM
357Georgia-14½
-102		O 45
-110
358Auburn+1 Markets+14½
-118		U 45
-110
2:30 PM
367Florida Atlantic+6
+100		O 49
-110
368UAB-6
-120		U 49
-110
2:30 PM
375Wisconsin-8½
-108		O 43
-110
376Illinois+1 Markets+8½
-112		U 43
-110
2:30 PM
377Miami Ohio-1
-115		O 55
-105
378Eastern Michigan+1
-105		U 55
-115
2:30 PM
385Central Michigan-5½
-105		O 55
-115
386Ohio+5½
-115		U 55
-105
3:00 PM
349Oregon State-3½
-102		O 59
-110
350Washington State+1 Markets+3½
-118		U 59
-110
3:00 PM
363North Texas+20
-115		O 66
-113
364Missouri+1 Markets-20
-105		U 66
-107
3:00 PM
395Penn State+2½
-106		O 42½
-105
396Iowa+1 Markets-2½
-114		U 42½
-115
5:00 PM
321East Carolina+10
-110		O 68
-105
322Central Florida+1 Markets-10
-110		U 68
-115
6:00 PM
329Buffalo+5½
-110		O 60
-110
330Kent State+1 Markets-5½
-110		U 60
-110
6:00 PM
339Wyoming+4
-110		O 48½
-105
340Air Force-4
-110		U 48½
-115
6:00 PM
355TCUpk
-125		O 62½
-105
356Texas Tech+1 Marketspk
+105		U 62½
-115
6:00 PM
365South Alabama-1
-120		O 53½
-110
366Texas State+1 Markets+1
+100		U 53½
-110
6:00 PM
383Georgia Southern+4
-108		O 51
-110
384Troy+1 Markets-4
-112		U 51
-110
6:00 PM
391UTEP+2
-115		O 45½
-110
392Southern Miss-2
-105		U 45½
-110
6:00 PM
393UTSA+3
-117		O 68
-115
394Western Kentucky-3
-103		U 68
-105
6:30 PM
359LSU+3½
-120		O 52½
-110
360Kentucky+1 Markets-3½
+100		U 52½
-110
6:30 PM
381Michigan-3
-120		O 51
-112
382Nebraska+1 Markets+3
+100		U 51
-108
6:30 PM
397Notre Dame-1½
-102		O 46½
-110
398Virginia Tech+1 Markets+1½
-118		U 46½
-110
7:00 PM
347Utah+3½
-110		O 51½
-105
348USC+1 Markets-3½
-110		U 51½
-115
7:00 PM
373Georgia State-14½
-110		O 53
-115
374UL Monroe+14½
-110		U 53
-105
7:00 PM
387Alabama-17½
-110		O 51½
-110
388Texas A&M+1 Markets+17½
-110		U 51½
-110
8:00 PM
371Memphis+4½
-117		O 62½
-110
372Tulsa+1 Markets-4½
-103		U 62½
-110
8:00 PM
401New Mexico+19
-116		O 44½
-110
402San Diego State+1 Markets-19
-104		U 44½
-110
9:30 PM
399UCLA-17
+100		O 61½
-115
400Arizona+1 Markets+17
-120		U 61½
-105
9:30 PM
403New Mexico State+33
-110		O 60½
-115
404Nevada-33
-110		U 60½
-105
 
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@2daBank what do you think about the wku over this week? As you predicted, this one bumped up into high 60’s. Most likely will close 70+. I know UTSA is good, just don’t know enough about their x’s and o’s to know if they can slow wku or if they have the personnel to pound the rock on off and play keep away a little?
 
Wonder how high that byu line goes? Assuming they have a healthy qb -3.5 was way short imo. Gonna have to see, technically they were already on backup in Romney but I like him, after he left game last week it didn’t look good with I suppose their 3rd stringer. If Romney back I think they roll boise. They gonna just bulldoze them on the ground which will allow cougs to then do whatever they want. On the other side the front gonna be all up in Bachmeier grill with way he holds the ball too long. Boise won’t be able to get anything on the ground. That one wr of theirs be a bit a problem for cougs secondary but they outta be able to limit that with pressure on qb and doubling him if need be. Well documented what I think of this version of Boise, Line crazy short imo, Romney plays and cougs roll by double digits imo.
 
mcculran said:
@2daBank what do you think about the wku over this week? As you predicted, this one bumped up into high 60’s. Most likely will close 70+. I know UTSA is good, just don’t know enough about their x’s and o’s to know if they can slow wku or if they have the personnel to pound the rock on off and play keep away a little?
Click to expand...

Im not real well schooled on utsa either, I see some our buddies already have taken them +3 so maybe they have some incite to their style of play. I’d rather have not been right bout where these totals would start to be! Lol. Im gonna start getting into numbers in a few hours and I’ll start there in case I decide it needs to be taken early. Soon as I do I’ll come back and let ya know. I know utsa has played Memphis and Illini so we should be able to get a good idea, I recall the Illini game was pretty high scoring for Illini so that gives me hope!
 
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It’s crazy how my opinion of byu has flipped so much since beginning of year. I actually bet Arizona with the points vs them in week 1 and we know how bad zona stinks! Was prob a little fortunate to cover that game as byu has let off the gas in all their second halves. Since that game they proceeded to make whipping boys out of the pac12 (lost a bet against them with Utah, turns out utes the team who fell way off this year!). Started betting them by going 1st half last week and now think this should be a layup vs Boise, another team who my opinion of has drastically taken a turn (for the worse in Boise case!). I almost wonder if Romney has to be out for this line to have opened this short? I wasn’t even aware he was hurt in last weeks game until he didn’t start the 2nd half so I dunno how bad the injury was or what it was?
 
2daBank said:
Im not real well schooled on utsa either, I see some our buddies already have taken them +3 so maybe they have some incite to their style of play. I’d rather have not been right bout where these totals would start to be! Lol. Im gonna start getting into numbers in a few hours and I’ll start there in case I decide it needs to be taken early. Soon as I do I’ll come back and let ya know. I know utsa has played Memphis and Illini so we should be able to get a good idea, I recall the Illini game was pretty high scoring for Illini so that gives me hope!
Click to expand...
Thanks man. Initially, i think it’s still an easy over, but let me know what you see. Think the books are still a little low, given sparty game was over by end of 3q.
 
Really like Kent -5 this week. Pretty nice class relief for a team that has played A&M, Iowa, Maryland and surprisingly decent BG. Bulls have given up big yards to everyone--516 Nebraska, 444 Coastal, 457 WMU, 433 Old Dominion. I think Kent will have their way on offense, I'm not sure what Buffalo really does well on offense...I'm getting the better QB, running game and overall defense here. Buffalo lack of depth could show up here as Kent will go up tempo I would guess....Would not be surprised by a Flashes thrashing. Played it for 2 units.
 
Marsski said:
Really like Kent -5 this week. Pretty nice class relief for a team that has played A&M, Iowa, Maryland and surprisingly decent BG. Bulls have given up big yards to everyone--516 Nebraska, 444 Coastal, 457 WMU, 433 Old Dominion. I think Kent will have their way on offense, I'm not sure what Buffalo really does well on offense...I'm getting the better QB, running game and overall defense here. Buffalo lack of depth could show up here as Kent will go up tempo I would guess....Would not be surprised by a Flashes thrashing. Played it for 2 units.
Click to expand...
on a weak card the maction games seem to be catching my eye the most. Everyone expected Buffalo to be much worse are we sure they are ? hard to get a read. That Nebraska game was a relatively close game for most of that. Almost beat coastal ! At the same time I would of thought they could of ran for more on western michigan and think last year they do.

Bowing Green/Akron - BG just played kent state tough and akron got blown out by a poor ohio team. Really like BGs defense. only concern is bg can't seem to run well. gonna be on bg and the under.

CMU/ohio - how down is ohio ?think Central is work a look.

Northern Illinois +12 to toledo - Kinda like the dog here, NIU seems improved to me.

Ball State/Western Michigan - lean the points here too. My sense is western offense isn't clicking quite like it was last year with losing some receivers.
 
EL CAPO said:
on a weak card the maction games seem to be catching my eye the most. Everyone expected Buffalo to be much worse are we sure they are ? hard to get a read. That Nebraska game was a relatively close game for most of that. Almost beat coastal ! At the same time I would of thought they could of ran for more on western michigan and think last year they do.

Bowing Green/Akron - BG just played kent state tough and akron got blown out by a poor ohio team. Really like BGs defense. only concern is bg can't seem to run well. gonna be on bg and the under.

CMU/ohio - how down is ohio ?think Central is work a look.

Northern Illinois +12 to toledo - Kinda like the dog here, NIU seems improved to me.

Ball State/Western Michigan - lean the points here too. My sense is western offense isn't clicking quite like it was last year with losing some receivers.
Click to expand...
Not impressed with Buffalo's Qb Van Treese and think that their defense pretty much gives up 450Y to everyone. Old Dominion is total trash and lost to them by 1. Hanging with Coastal ain't doing it for me. I've been waiting for Kent to get on track offensively and I think this could be the week.

I don't disagree with Bg and under. Akron wasn't blown out by OU...Up 17-10 midway through third before giving up last 24....OU did run power run/Qb run Akron to death...

I'm on Central for a unit. OU is totally reliant on the running game and probably will start a running QB (Armani Rogers) on Saturday instead of Rourke. Chips have top 30 run D and will stack the box. CMU coach light years better than Albin. I think it's a good match-up for the Chips.

No big opinions on the other two games...slight lean to Toledo...
 
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one that jumps out to me is connecticut. really seems to be improving. Were better than an SEC school last week. Haven't seen much of umass though but doubt they can be better.

North Texas looks better defensively. Anybody seen them ? Because missouri doesn't look like they should be laying that many to anybody right now.

UNC still had trouble running the ball last week against Duke. Duke should of covered with any pulse offensively. Not sure I wanna bet on FSU though.
 
It appears to me utsa will absolutely look to control the tempo more to their liking than wku preferred pace. These guys run 85 plays a game and keep opponents down around 67. Utsa only rushes for 3.6 per carry but they are committed to it! They convert 3rd downs at a excellent clip (23rd in county), I suspect they get into a whole lot of 3rd and shorts. This bad news cause there are not many teams who allow a higher 3rd down conversion rate than wku (best I can tell there are exactly 2! lol), they rank 128th in this regard!! The good news here is the defense is equally inefficient in the red zone as the same principles apply allowing teams to be incredibly efficient scoring tds at a clip ranking them 114th in the country. Wku did play a army team who is more run heavy than utsa and we still managed 73 points! It is a stark contrast in value as we got to play over 52 in that one!! (Again shout out to Mars for puttin me on this team since the very beginning in week 1! I been following closely and watching their games since then!)..

yes utsa will almost certainly control the tempo and limit possessions, the good news being we shouldn’t be seeing long drives that end in anything less than 7s, the slightly bad news is utsa fg kicker only hitting 63%, but if he kicking more than 1 or 2 we toast anyways. To this point Hoosiers were the only team I recall wku holding to fg attempts, not coincidentally they were the worst rushing team wku has faced. I think 35-38 is a reasonable expected score for utsa as none the other run heavy teams were able to break a long one snd they still managed 38 and 48 respectively (the 48 was benefited by a special teams return).

So wku offense will have to deal with not having the ball all that much, this is again nothing new to them as they only average 24 min of possession and run 73 plays per game which only a handful more plays than utsa allows. They make the most out of their chances anx they facing a utsa squad who 98th in the county in yards per pass attempt allowed even tho they hold teams to a 56% completion rate, that gets accomplished because they give up a whopping 14.3 per completion! So even if utsa strong completion percentage against which helps them get off the field on 3rd down at 26th in the country isn’t a mirage based off the limited passing attacks they have faced the big plays will be there for wku.

The nice thing about wku overs is when the offense is having trouble getting started they take almost 0 time off the clock before they punt (another thing that contributes to their horrid tackling/defense, they wear down!), when they do get moving it is a freaking locomotive! They get one chunk play after another until you turn your back and see your endzone!! I have yet to see them pick up a 1st down on a drive that didn’t end across the 50, only a few that stalled before getting in red zone!!

Bottom line is even with utsa playing keep away I don’t see any chance they hold wku under 31 and that no doubt a conservatively low number. Matter a fact that too low. Let’s remember As much respect utsa getting imo this a absolute step down in competition for wku from both their last 2 opponents! Id say the army game was actually a pretty decent comp to utsa even if the scheme they run drastically different. Case can be made army actually plays stronger defense and most certainly hold teams to way fewer plays per game and wku hung 35 on army thanks to a bombardment of points in the 4th qrtr which almost got them the W. Back to the point about when wku gets rolling they very hard to stop! Think you have to say wku can and should score 35 here again.

This has gotten crazy long (sorry if I’m babbling! Lol), I’ve seen several guys I respect already on utsa, I suppose I get it, they a really solid team getting points, they the kind of road dog I typically like with a excellent run game and they stop the run.. Unfortunately for utsa stopping the run isn’t gonna mean squat here. What wku gonna Force them to do is be perfectly efficient on offense to hang the number they will need to beat them, it is certainly possible, utsa plays efficient and very clean, they don’t commit penalties which a killer for a offense like this. I just realized army was 6 point favs in this wku game (Dunno why I had that confused), now wku -3 against a team I’ve spent time making the case is very similar! Lol. I do agree there value on utsa. this must mean that wku performances in losing efforts have gained them some respect for them to come in favored over a undefeated team who has been talked about a bit lately. It could be wku is primed fo come into conf play and start winning games? I think I prefer the over once again! All this to come to same conclusion! Lol. I will say it be a much smaller bet for me than I been making on these, my number is 71 so not a ton of wiggle room. Matter a fact I’m not betting it early, if it gets bet up I will have to pass, if it sticks or comes down a tick it be a small play.
 
EL CAPO said:
on a weak card the maction games seem to be catching my eye the most. Everyone expected Buffalo to be much worse are we sure they are ? hard to get a read. That Nebraska game was a relatively close game for most of that. Almost beat coastal ! At the same time I would of thought they could of ran for more on western michigan and think last year they do.

Bowing Green/Akron - BG just played kent state tough and akron got blown out by a poor ohio team. Really like BGs defense. only concern is bg can't seem to run well. gonna be on bg and the under.

CMU/ohio - how down is ohio ?think Central is work a look.

Northern Illinois +12 to toledo - Kinda like the dog here, NIU seems improved to me.

Ball State/Western Michigan - lean the points here too. My sense is western offense isn't clicking quite like it was last year with losing some receivers.
Click to expand...
2daBank said:
It appears to me utsa will absolutely look to control the tempo more to their liking than wku preferred pace. These guys run 85 plays a game and keep opponents down around 67. Utsa only rushes for 3.6 per carry but they are committed to it! They convert 3rd downs at a excellent clip (23rd in county), I suspect they get into a whole lot of 3rd and shorts. This bad news cause there are not many teams who allow a higher 3rd down conversion rate than wku (best I can tell there are exactly 2! lol), they rank 128th in this regard!! The good news here is the defense is equally inefficient in the red zone as the same principles apply allowing teams to be incredibly efficient scoring tds at a clip ranking them 114th in the country. Wku did play a army team who is more run heavy than utsa and we still managed 73 points! It is a stark contrast in value as we got to play over 52 in that one!! (Again shout out to Mars for puttin me on this team since the very beginning in week 1! I been following closely and watching their games since then!)..

yes utsa will almost certainly control the tempo and limit possessions, the good news being we shouldn’t be seeing long drives that end in anything less than 7s, the slightly bad news is utsa fg kicker only hitting 63%, but if he kicking more than 1 or 2 we toast anyways. To this point Hoosiers were the only team I recall wku holding to fg attempts, not coincidentally they were the worst rushing team wku has faced. I think 35-38 is a reasonable expected score for utsa as none the other run heavy teams were able to break a long one snd they still managed 38 and 48 respectively (the 48 was benefited by a special teams return).

So wku offense will have to deal with not having the ball all that much, this is again nothing new to them as they only average 24 min of possession and run 73 plays per game which only a handful more plays than utsa allows. They make the most out of their chances anx they facing a utsa squad who 98th in the county in yards per pass attempt allowed even tho they hold teams to a 56% completion rate, that gets accomplished because they give up a whopping 14.3 per completion! So even if utsa strong completion percentage against which helps them get off the field on 3rd down at 26th in the country isn’t a mirage based off the limited passing attacks they have faced the big plays will be there for wku.

The nice thing about wku overs is when the offense is having trouble getting started they take almost 0 time off the clock before they punt (another thing that contributes to their horrid tackling/defense, they wear down!), when they do get moving it is a freaking locomotive! They get one chunk play after another until you turn your back and see your endzone!! I have yet to see them pick up a 1st down on a drive that didn’t end across the 50, only a few that stalled before getting in red zone!!

Bottom line is even with utsa playing keep away I don’t see any chance they hold wku under 31 and that no doubt a conservatively low number. Matter a fact that too low. Let’s remember As much respect utsa getting imo this a absolute step down in competition for wku from both their last 2 opponents! Id say the army game was actually a pretty decent comp to utsa even if the scheme they run drastically different. Case can be made army actually plays stronger defense and most certainly hold teams to way fewer plays per game and wku hung 35 on army thanks to a bombardment of points in the 4th qrtr which almost got them the W. Back to the point about when wku gets rolling they very hard to stop! Think you have to say wku can and should score 35 here again.

This has gotten crazy long (sorry if I’m babbling! Lol), I’ve seen several guys I respect already on utsa, I suppose I get it, they a really solid team getting points, they the kind of road dog I typically like with a excellent run game and they stop the run.. Unfortunately for utsa stopping the run isn’t gonna mean squat here. What wku gonna Force them to do is be perfectly efficient on offense to hang the number they will need to beat them, it is certainly possible, utsa plays efficient and very clean, they don’t commit penalties which a killer for a offense like this. I just realized army was 6 point favs in this wku game (Dunno why I had that confused), now wku -3 against a team I’ve spent time making the case is very similar! Lol. I do agree there value on utsa. this must mean that wku performances in losing efforts have gained them some respect for them to come in favored over a undefeated team who has been talked about a bit lately. It could be wku is primed fo come into conf play and start winning games? I think I prefer the over once again! All this to come to same conclusion! Lol. I will say it be a much smaller bet for me than I been making on these, my number is 71 so not a ton of wiggle room. Matter a fact I’m not betting it early, if it gets bet up I will have to pass, if it sticks or comes down a tick it be a small play.
Click to expand...
I’ve had the over every week, but think the number is finally being made high enough. Not sure it makes my card this week but it’s been profitable to say th least.
 
Marsski said:
I’ve had the over every week, but think the number is finally being made high enough. Not sure it makes my card this week but it’s been profitable to say th least.
Click to expand...

Yea me too, you told me about all the changes they brought from Houston Baptist before week 1 and I been following and betting overs (and them ats a few times) ever since! Appreciate you getting me on them. I knew we be getting these mid-high 60s sooner than later. I agree they pretty spot on with the number now. I think 71 might be right here but that super close compared to al the value we been getting!
 
It was a fun ride. This week I’m not looking to jump on at 68, I’ll wait snd see where it goes. If it stays put or better yet dropped a bit I would play but still smaller than I have been. If it gets bet up I’ll just move along and hope there still be another chance before end of year.
 
Man, I know this been said more than once but this card is straight up ass compared to last week! Seems like lot less games and not many good ones from a watching or betting perspective!
 
2daBank said:
It’s crazy how my opinion of byu has flipped so much since beginning of year. I actually bet Arizona with the points vs them in week 1 and we know how bad zona stinks! Was prob a little fortunate to cover that game as byu has let off the gas in all their second halves. Since that game they proceeded to make whipping boys out of the pac12 (lost a bet against them with Utah, turns out utes the team who fell way off this year!). Started betting them by going 1st half last week and now think this should be a layup vs Boise, another team who my opinion of has drastically taken a turn (for the worse in Boise case!). I almost wonder if Romney has to be out for this line to have opened this short? I wasn’t even aware he was hurt in last weeks game until he didn’t start the 2nd half so I dunno how bad the injury was or what it was?
Click to expand...
Just heard Hall is listed as QB1 on weekly depth chart. Guess he’s okay? Might be the reason for line jump

PS….really appreciate your thoughts on wku. We’re on the same wavelength
 
mcculran said:
Just heard Hall is listed as QB1 on weekly depth chart. Guess he’s okay? Might be the reason for line jump

PS….really appreciate your thoughts on wku. We’re on the same wavelength
Click to expand...

Right on. I’m good with hall or Romney. Apparently Romney got a concussion at end of half the Utah st game. I like the way he looked last 2 weeks. Either one of them can play snd yea that line was absolutely short imo. Matter fact I think I’d play them up to a td. On this stinky card right now cougs my favorite play. I’d like to see both qbs good to go that way if one gets hurt again we not stuck w the 3rd stringer. Honestly I could talk myself into byu with my nephew at qb probably (he 13, big kid tho! Lol). All ya gotta do is think back to the okie lite game and recall how they showed no interest throwing a pass and were still able to cram the run game down boise throats as they continued playing light boxes and allowing 6-7-8 ypc!! I see cougs doing exactly the same thing. Fully expect they will harass and turn Bachmeier over several times!
 
Can Anyone make a argument for Duke? I think gtech matches up about as well w them as I thought the matchup was bad for them last week vs pitt (very similar line and total also!). Don’t expect that kind of nice stress free ass kicking pitt on tech but jackets should get back to having success on the ground, think they will be able to take Duke run game away then get after their qb. Everything points Gtech to me and those numbers been accumulated with them facing a much tougher schedule than Duke to this point! Smashed them in this game last year and think tech is basically a year more experienced with mostly the same group! Not sure if Duke has changed much?
 
anyone know Cunningham status for ville? all i see is he left the wake game and this weekend "up in the air", so freaking helpful! lol
 
How does utah respond this week? Feel like they either rally together for an emotional win or have checked out and get blown out
 
survive&advance said:
How does utah respond this week? Feel like they either rally together for an emotional win or have checked out and get blown out
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No read on that team. I legitimately thought they were the best team in the conference preseason, loss to BYU and SDSU, unimpressive win at home against Wazzu

Wouldn't blame them if they just check out at this point. Home game I'd probably back them for the emotion angle but not at the Coliseum
 
KJ said:
No read on that team. I legitimately thought they were the best team in the conference preseason, loss to BYU and SDSU, unimpressive win at home against Wazzu

Wouldn't blame them if they just check out at this point. Home game I'd probably back them for the emotion angle but not at the Coliseum
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Same here, I took their rsw over. Also agree w/ this week...such a brutal situation
 
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Marsski said:
Not impressed with Buffalo's Qb Van Treese and think that their defense pretty much gives up 450Y to everyone. Old Dominion is total trash and lost to them by 1. Hanging with Coastal ain't doing it for me. I've been waiting for Kent to get on track offensively and I think this could be the week.

I don't disagree with Bg and under. Akron wasn't blown out by OU...Up 17-10 midway through third before giving up last 24....OU did run power run/Qb run Akron to death...

I'm on Central for a unit. OU is totally reliant on the running game and probably will start a running QB (Armani Rogers) on Saturday instead of Rourke. Chips have top 30 run D and will stack the box. CMU coach light years better than Albin. I think it's a good match-up for the Chips.

No big opinions on the other two games...slight lean to Toledo...
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Any thoughts on the Kent St/Buff O63? Kent St has blown so many scoring chances this year....i think its skewing their offensive numbers (I know you are what you are, but they shoulda/coulda easily had another couple hundred yards and probably 30-40 more points on the year)....I think KSU gets some payback for the 70-35 beating they took last year vs Buffalo....Should be a game they can put up 40+ in
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any thoughts on the Kent St/Buff O63? Kent St has blown so many scoring chances this year....i think its skewing their offensive numbers (I know you are what you are, but they shoulda/coulda easily had another couple hundred yards and probably 30-40 more points on the year)....I think KSU gets some payback for the 70-35 beating they took last year vs Buffalo....Should be a game they can put up 40+ in
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Yeah. I’m expecting a breakout game from the Flashes. Not sure about the total, I like the side enough that I’m not messing with it. I’d make it about 62.
 
EL CAPO said:
on a weak card the maction games seem to be catching my eye the most. Everyone expected Buffalo to be much worse are we sure they are ? hard to get a read. That Nebraska game was a relatively close game for most of that. Almost beat coastal ! At the same time I would of thought they could of ran for more on western michigan and think last year they do.

Bowing Green/Akron - BG just played kent state tough and akron got blown out by a poor ohio team. Really like BGs defense. only concern is bg can't seem to run well. gonna be on bg and the under.

CMU/ohio - how down is ohio ?think Central is work a look.

Northern Illinois +12 to toledo - Kinda like the dog here, NIU seems improved to me.

Ball State/Western Michigan - lean the points here too. My sense is western offense isn't clicking quite like it was last year with losing some receivers.
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I was one who expected Buffalo to be worse and played their Under. I was surprised to see them be as competitive as they were at times vs Nebraska and Coastal, enough to think they had a shot to beat Western last week and just got a pointspread push although Western outgained them by 170 yards.

I think Marsski could have a point about Kent this week. One angle for Kent is how big the Buffalo game was last year, it was basically winner goes to the MAC Title game and Buffalo put up 70 points and 663 yards (over 500 rushing). But Kent scored 41 and nearly had 600 yards themselves. Should be lots of motivation for Kent in this game and Kent won't play at home again until 11/3 after this game. The Kent O hasn't been as good as I expected. They miss their prime WR McKoy a ton (#1 receiver '20 and '19, #3 receiver '18). Nobody has been able to consistently fill that role yet and Crum misses that guy he can just almost close his eyes and throw to. Other than that, it should seem like a matter of time until Kent does something on offense to make us remember the Kent O of last year (VMI not withstanding). And Buffalo might continue to fade...almost lost to ODU and then get outgained by 170 last week to Western.

Ball State is a total mystery to me. I have lost money on them, felt like I should take them last week, didn't and they won outright. I actually think Western's pass game has been very good this year. Moore has upped his game to take over the go-to role and excelled and the other guys are stepping up as well. Eskridge was great, but contrast it with Kent for instance, I don't think losing Eskridge has hurt Western as much as losing McKoy has hurt Kent.
 
2daBank said:
Can Anyone make a argument for Duke? I think gtech matches up about as well w them as I thought the matchup was bad for them last week vs pitt (very similar line and total also!). Don’t expect that kind of nice stress free ass kicking pitt on tech but jackets should get back to having success on the ground, think they will be able to take Duke run game away then get after their qb. Everything points Gtech to me and those numbers been accumulated with them facing a much tougher schedule than Duke to this point! Smashed them in this game last year and think tech is basically a year more experienced with mostly the same group! Not sure if Duke has changed much?
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I tend to like GT, but do think Duke has changed a good bit for the better. Brice was just such a liability last year for them at QB and all the turnovers overall, they've gotten more efficient and capable on O this year. I don't know if the Duke D is better or worse. The got to the point of being so bad last year it was actually hard to believe, then they lost some of their best players on D and have seemed to be better. Still couldn't stop Charlotte O when it mattered and Kansas put up a bunch of yards on them, just didn't get the points they should've. So essentially, Duke O better, Duke D bad.
 
Hard to handicap the intangibles with Utah.

Fading USC against physical teams is key, which is what Utah should be, but then BYU and San Diego St were better at the LOS than Utes. Preseason I would've said this is the year Utah wins at USC. Now? Looks like none of us know.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Did not know that the Horns have been dogs in this game now 13 straight years.
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I've had a lot of confidence in my analysis of this game the past few years, but I'm in the dark this year. I like the Texas running game for sure, but Oklahoma is a puzzle to me

Their offense should be humming, but it's been off all year. One of the reasons they can't run is Rattler can't execute the option part of the RPO. He can't read the DE fast enough to make a decision, plus teams aren't afraid of him running so they are crashing down the line and tackling the back every time.

I don't see any improvement at all in Rattler this year. He looks like a carbon copy of the Rattler coming into this game last year.

The OU defense looks like it should be a lot better. You can see they have bigger, faster, more athletic guys on defense than they've had in the past, but they don't actually play any better.

Texas looks better for sure than the last few years, but their defense was not impressive against Tex Tech and TCU and I doubt they stop the OU offense.

Even the kickers are about even, so I'm passing on it except for possibly playing the over.
 
s--k said:
I was one who expected Buffalo to be worse and played their Under. I was surprised to see them be as competitive as they were at times vs Nebraska and Coastal, enough to think they had a shot to beat Western last week and just got a pointspread push although Western outgained them by 170 yards.

I think Marsski could have a point about Kent this week. One angle for Kent is how big the Buffalo game was last year, it was basically winner goes to the MAC Title game and Buffalo put up 70 points and 663 yards (over 500 rushing). But Kent scored 41 and nearly had 600 yards themselves. Should be lots of motivation for Kent in this game and Kent won't play at home again until 11/3 after this game. The Kent O hasn't been as good as I expected. They miss their prime WR McKoy a ton (#1 receiver '20 and '19, #3 receiver '18). Nobody has been able to consistently fill that role yet and Crum misses that guy he can just almost close his eyes and throw to. Other than that, it should seem like a matter of time until Kent does something on offense to make us remember the Kent O of last year (VMI not withstanding). And Buffalo might continue to fade...almost lost to ODU and then get outgained by 170 last week to Western.

Ball State is a total mystery to me. I have lost money on them, felt like I should take them last week, didn't and they won outright. I actually think Western's pass game has been very good this year. Moore has upped his game to take over the go-to role and excelled and the other guys are stepping up as well. Eskridge was great, but contrast it with Kent for instance, I don't think losing Eskridge has hurt Western as much as losing McKoy has hurt Kent.
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yep Bulls been darn good relative to expectations I think. Only reason I'm liking Kent State side this week is because the Bulls worst offensive output of the year was against Western Michigan - never been too high on Western Michigan D. Gotta think with Buffs losing some olineman, and their top wide receiver from last year they are worse offensively. Now they play a Kent State D which is - I think very improved compared to last year. I don't see Buff mauling them at all like they did last year. I think the under sets up pretty good in this game personally.

Takeaway for me from some of these mid majors is importance of receivers - been a line guy myself. But look at San Jose State, that's all receivers departing. They still have a good defense but can't throw. Everyone's steaming on colorado state this week and I see why, but I don't like the fact they lost to Vandy. Like the under in that game I think San Jose may try to transition to some more runs.

Ball State - weren't they pretty average last year before going on a run ? I think this is a very momentum like team, and maybe they got it last week.. Army looked great on paper last week I lost on them too but something too be said for a senior team with back against wall. Ball may have turned the corner, and maybe they can get their run game going on Western. Western's only gone over 30 once this season. They went over in 5 of 6 last year and over 40 in 4 of of them. Something just seems a little off. How many opportunities did they have against san jose and buffalo to score ? alot of possessions because I know san jose couldn't do anything at all. If we think Buff was bad vs western san jose had only 119 total yards. Disgusting. Western offense with all those possessions and short fields should be scoring more than scratching 20 points.
 
s--k said:
I tend to like GT, but do think Duke has changed a good bit for the better. Brice was just such a liability last year for them at QB and all the turnovers overall, they've gotten more efficient and capable on O this year. I don't know if the Duke D is better or worse. The got to the point of being so bad last year it was actually hard to believe, then they lost some of their best players on D and have seemed to be better. Still couldn't stop Charlotte O when it mattered and Kansas put up a bunch of yards on them, just didn't get the points they should've. So essentially, Duke O better, Duke D bad.
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I didn’t really look at last year when I capped it, other than noticing the score. I stuck to this years numbers and felt like tech had advantages in the areas I value most. Most important I think tech will get back to having success on the ground and think they can limit Duke run game. Both teams heavily dependent on rushing the ball for the offense to succeed! I’m not real sure what Duke passing attack will look like if they not running w success? They really havnt faced a d who could shut down the run game like I think tech can.
 
survive&advance said:
Is temple a ‘hole your nose’ bet tonight? Cincy coming off ND win with UCF on deck next week
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I love how much this has caught on over the years. I was using the "hold your nose" back in late 2000's for spots like these.

I see it everywhere now.

And yeah, Cincy might cover tonight but no value in the numbers and the situation isn't great.
 
survive&advance said:
Is temple a ‘hole your nose’ bet tonight? Cincy coming off ND win with UCF on deck next week
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Could be. I do wonder if cincy hearing the talk about their 2 big out of conf wins not holding up tho? Obviously Hoosiers win nothing to brag about and I fear for them ND gonna lose a few more games this year which will totally screw them. Might be they really looking to put up style points rest of the way? I can’t do it, I know there no way I touch that game if it 2marro, we have playoff baseball, no reason to get involved with this shit imo.
 
I thought asu line was strangely high at open, now the damn thing is approaching 14!! Asu has some very gaudy yards per play numbers, 3rd in the country at 7.2 ypp! They also been fantastic on 3rd down converting over 53% good for 6th in the nation!! Defensively they top 20 in ppg, yards per game, points per play, yards per play, 5th in passing yards allowed and sack rate! Could be this number is justified but fuck I dunno. I love Herm as a dog but not so much as a big fav.

This line has the same feel as all those last week where the favs trounced! Although that not 100% true, Bama and uga smashed those spreads but Ou and Clemson failed to cover. Think it safe to say asu is closer to Ou and Clemson than they are bama or uga! Think asu only way I could go but not thrilled with the idea. Trees team total under 19.5 maybe?
 
2daBank said:
Could be. I do wonder if cincy hearing the talk about their 2 big out of conf wins not holding up tho? Obviously Hoosiers win nothing to brag about and I fear for them ND gonna lose a few more games this year which will totally screw them. Might be they really looking to put up style points rest of the way? I can’t do it, I know there no way I touch that game if it 2marro, we have playoff baseball, no reason to get involved with this shit imo.
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Yeah really good points by you and KJ. Not point in forcing a bet
 
2daBank said:
I thought asu line was strangely high at open, now the damn thing is approaching 14!! Asu has some very gaudy yards per play numbers, 3rd in the country at 7.2 ypp! They also been fantastic on 3rd down converting over 53% good for 6th in the nation!! Defensively they top 20 in ppg, yards per game, points per play, yards per play, 5th in passing yards allowed and sack rate! Could be this number is justified but fuck I dunno. I love Herm as a dog but not so much as a big fav.

This line has the same feel as all those last week where the favs trounced! Although that not 100% true, Bama and uga smashed those spreads but Ou and Clemson failed to cover. Think it safe to say asu is closer to Ou and Clemson than they are bama or uga! Think asu only way I could go but not thrilled with the idea. Trees team total under 19.5 maybe?
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Didnt watch either game, but stanford has already beaten two teams who clearly out-athlete them. That’s clearly the case here as well. I love shaw, but expected the trees to be down a notch this year. USC win not overly impressive, but oregon win was…Herm 1-2 ats as home fave and always seem to play things closer to the vest if he can. If he’s up 10 in the 4th he will milk the clock knowing he can’t lose straight up. Trees or nothing for me, especially if it gets to 14/14.5
 
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