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B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
08:25 PM 103 Philadelphia Eagles +3 +105 +155 Ov 45½ -114
104 Carolina Panthers -3 -125 -175 Un 45½ -106

Sunday, Oct 15, 2017 - NFL Football
01:00 PM 251 Cleveland Browns +9½ -110 Ov 44½ -113
252 Houston Texans -9½ -110 Un 44½ -107


01:00 PM 253 New England Patriots -9½ -110 Ov 47½ -110
254 New York Jets +9½ -110 Un 47½ -110


01:00 PM 255 Miami Dolphins +11 -105 Ov 47 -110
256 Atlanta Falcons -11 -115 Un 47 -110


01:00 PM 257 Detroit Lions +4½ -110 Ov 51 -108
258 New Orleans Saints -4½ -110 Un 51 -112


01:00 PM 263 San Francisco 49ers +9½ -115
264 Washington Redskins -9½ -105


04:05 PM 265 Los Angeles Rams +2½ -102 Ov 43½ -110
266 Jacksonville Jaguars -2½ -118 Un 43½ -110


04:05 PM 267 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 -110 Ov 44½ -110
268 Arizona Cardinals +2 -110 Un 44½ -110


04:25 PM 269 Pittsburgh Steelers +4 -105 Ov 45½ -112
270 Kansas City Chiefs -4 -115 Un 45½ -108


08:30 PM 273 New York Giants +11½ -110 Ov 40 -110
274 Denver Broncos -11½ -110 Un 40 -110





BYES:

Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Seahawks
 
Omg, that hit on Mckinnon right before fg in first half was amazing. The fact he didnt fumble there was remarkable. Props to both football players.
 
Yeah but what would you have made that line prior to Pitt getting embarrassed & KC with a nice OTR win in Houston? I had it 2.5. I was low on most for this week but I see 5 on Bovada which feels generous to me. Pitt plays up to good competition.
 
Im pessimistic as always with the Chiefs but Ben on the road has been awful and Chiefs big revenge spot. Biggest concern is patchwork Chiefs OL against a real good Pitt front 7.
 
Also, Pitt has been on my overrated list from the beginning. Simply a reputation team when it comes to lines. There are 2-4 teams out there this year getting those types of lines.
 
Buy low sell high angles in full effect this week...

Lions off a home loss where the secondary was trash. Saints off a bye and win where the offense was clicking on all cylinders. This could be a game where ppl love the over even with the Stafford injury...I could see a more defensive game. lean under 49.5

Rams- off a divisional home loss where the offense was trash, Jags off a road domination of Pitt where Fournette went crazy. Not really sure where I stand on this one but I suspect perception is maybe the Jags are for real, and all they have to do is win by a fg.
 
Jets/Pats- Patriots defense isn't suddenly better, watched winston miss wide open tds and he still carved them in the 4th, threw for 300 and had a (very slim) chance for a su win. Jets would have covered a +7 line 8 of the last 10 meetings, they almost always keep it close vs the Pats. Linesmakers know this, yet open a sky high line and books are protecting teasers with +11.5+110 lines? I was dead set on fading the Jets all season and it has cost me a little so far. They will probably be able to move the ball on NE, but will they score tds? If Powell and Forte are out I really can't see the Jets competing. Looks like the classic game where ppl line up to fade an injured Brady with no d and they win 31-13. Could be the landmine of the big lined games but I don't think so.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Jets/Pats- Patriots defense isn't suddenly better, watched winston miss wide open tds and he still carved them in the 4th, threw for 300 and had a (very slim) chance for a su win. Jets would have covered a +7 line 8 of the last 10 meetings, they almost always keep it close vs the Pats. Linesmakers know this, yet open a sky high line and books are protecting teasers with +11.5+110 lines? I was dead set on fading the Jets all season and it has cost me a little so far. They will probably be able to move the ball on NE, but will they score tds? If Powell and Forte are out I really can't see the Jets competing. Looks like the classic game where ppl line up to fade an injured Brady with no d and they win 31-13. Could be the landmine of the big lined games but I don't think so.
Click to expand...

Jets got completely dominated in Cleveland and would have lost if not for the Browns executing their tank to perfection. Its true that the Jets usually play their best against the Patriots but I think the Jets phony 3-2 record will have Brady and co taking them seriously and if there is one thing Belichick loves its sticking it to the Jets.

Maybe its just my hatred of the Jets winning games and screwing up their draft position once again but I think the clock is about to strike midnight and the losses mount for this awful team. Without all the breaks going their way against the Jags and the Browns losing on purpose the Jets would be 1-4 like they should be.
 
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Everyone watched Rodgers march down the field and own the Boys 2ndh, everyone watched Minny struggle to beat the toothless Bears on mnf. Game screams GB letdown but god I hate going against Rodgers, especially on a short line. GB on the 2nd straight road game and the secondary is decimated. Looked to me from mnf Keenum is the better option rn as Bradford is just too banged up. If Diggs is better I like the chances of Vikings wrs vs the banged up secondary.
 
Yeah it seems the KC line is affected by the public still thinking the Steelers must be a good team and perhaps not believing in Alex Smith. It's the line that jumps out at me the most. And I don't to chase a dog just for the sake of chasing a dog, but with some of these big lines it seems like there must be some value to be found.
 
Dogs 42-30-3 ATS (31-44 SU) through 5 weeks.

Things about to turn as they always do.
 
braves said:
KC is only a 4 pt favorite? So basically a pk on a neutral?
Hmm
Click to expand...

I have KC lined at -8 for this game based on the numbers etc and discounting injuries. ELO has -8.5, spread back in April was KC -1.5.

So the 4 on offer is decent and fair. Good teams are supposed to bounce-back off shitty outings, so Pitt peeps will run with that narrative.

That being said KC is 5-0 SU and ATS to start the season.

Only 4 teams since 1990 have managed to do that and in Week 6 have gone 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS).
 
Spurrier's Brain said:
Yeah it seems the KC line is affected by the public still thinking the Steelers must be a good team and perhaps not believing in Alex Smith. It's the line that jumps out at me the most. And I don't to chase a dog just for the sake of chasing a dog, but with some of these big lines it seems like there must be some value to be found.
Click to expand...

Nice, Freddy King avy
 
Lexington 125 said:
Buy low sell high angles in full effect this week...

Lions off a home loss where the secondary was trash. Saints off a bye and win where the offense was clicking on all cylinders. This could be a game where ppl love the over even with the Stafford injury...I could see a more defensive game. lean under 49.5

Rams- off a divisional home loss where the offense was trash, Jags off a road domination of Pitt where Fournette went crazy. Not really sure where I stand on this one but I suspect perception is maybe the Jags are for real, and all they have to do is win by a fg.
Click to expand...

My concern w rams Is the way to beat them is to run the football and we know jags gonna do that.
 
It was a big red flag to me, and I thought it was pretty damn weird they let everyone lay the juiced 3 without the Vikes even naming a starting quarterback. And no team has covered the spread better than the Vikings have since Zim became head coach (66% ATS). But with Vikings coming off MNF.. I think that extra day will be big for the Packers. I'm a contrarian who loves dogs but I think Packers get 30 by themselves.
 
5dimes has the conditional lines for Raiders and Titans games

Mariota must start -7.5 -125

Mariota must not start -6-110

Carr must start -4.5-115

Carr must not start-2.5-130
 
austinhous said:
It was a big red flag to me, and I thought it was pretty damn weird they let everyone lay the juiced 3 without the Vikes even naming a starting quarterback. And no team has covered the spread better than the Vikings have since Zim became head coach (66% ATS). But with Vikings coming off MNF.. I think that extra day will be big for the Packers. I'm a contrarian who loves dogs but I think Packers get 30 by themselves.
Click to expand...

I played the +150 earlier in the week, with the hopes of the Vikes just starting Keenum. It's now down to +130 so who are all these ppl lining up to fade Rodgers?
 
2daBank said:
My concern w rams Is the way to beat them is to run the football and we know jags gonna do that.
Click to expand...

Very possible the Rams will too. Rams have allowed 133.6 ypg and 7 tds, Jax allowing 143 and 5 tds. The Rams have a more balanced attack offensively, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher scoring game. I just don't think Jax is at the point where they overcome letdown spots...
 
Redskins won't have Norman & Kelley, prob won't have Trent williams.... If norman was playing I'd be all over the Skins ats but those are pretty big injuries. So far I only have them in a ml parlay mainly because of the injuries, but it's a nice spot for them to flex- could easily see a 2 td win.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Everyone watched Rodgers march down the field and own the Boys 2ndh, everyone watched Minny struggle to beat the toothless Bears on mnf. Game screams GB letdown but god I hate going against Rodgers, especially on a short line. GB on the 2nd straight road game and the secondary is decimated. Looked to me from mnf Keenum is the better option rn as Bradford is just too banged up. If Diggs is better I like the chances of Vikings wrs vs the banged up secondary.
Click to expand...

Surpringly, Case has a great QBR, def better than Sam now, maybe coming into own.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Very possible the Rams will too. Rams have allowed 133.6 ypg and 7 tds, Jax allowing 143 and 5 tds. The Rams have a more balanced attack offensively, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher scoring game. I just don't think Jax is at the point where they overcome letdown spots...
Click to expand...

Jags look pretty good everywhere but QB
 
austinhous said:
It was a big red flag to me, and I thought it was pretty damn weird they let everyone lay the juiced 3 without the Vikes even naming a starting quarterback. And no team has covered the spread better than the Vikings have since Zim became head coach (66% ATS). But with Vikings coming off MNF.. I think that extra day will be big for the Packers. I'm a contrarian who loves dogs but I think Packers get 30 by themselves.
Click to expand...

I think the market realizes that Keenum gives them a better chance to win ATM, hence why the game is on the board before they named their starting QB. Keenum and Bradford not at 100% are valued the same, and I think that's accurate given the circumstance.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
I think the market realizes that Keenum gives them a better chance to win ATM, hence why the game is on the board before they named their starting QB. Keenum and Bradford not at 100% are valued the same, and I think that's accurate given the circumstance.
Click to expand...

I see it the same. At this point in time, as far as the number is concerned, there isn't even a half point of difference between the two QBs.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Very possible the Rams will too. Rams have allowed 133.6 ypg and 7 tds, Jax allowing 143 and 5 tds. The Rams have a more balanced attack offensively, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a higher scoring game. I just don't think Jax is at the point where they overcome letdown spots...
Click to expand...

Yea no doubt, run d weakness of both teams. Rams clearly more balanced so theoretically should be tougher to defend, I just have doubts whenever Phillips defenses go up against strong rushing attacks, seems to be a scheme problem considering how much better donks are vs rush now that he gone and how poor rams rush d has become. Certainly don't hate a play on rams I think they the better team simply cause bortles so bad. I wish we had more history of them traveling east for early kick, seems to be harder on some teams than others.
 
Navarro Bowman released by 49ers this afternoon. Full tank mode in SF now. They are going with all the young guys.
 
austinhous said:
It was a big red flag to me, and I thought it was pretty damn weird they let everyone lay the juiced 3 without the Vikes even naming a starting quarterback. And no team has covered the spread better than the Vikings have since Zim became head coach (66% ATS). But with Vikings coming off MNF.. I think that extra day will be big for the Packers. I'm a contrarian who loves dogs but I think Packers get 30 by themselves.
Click to expand...
Vikes 6-0 last 6 ATS in the division and something like 18-6 ATS in division under Zimmer (heard on the radio today). I knew the ATS record was good but had no idea it was that good. FWIW I have not gone back to verify. Just passing it along. I could see a backdoor cover but unlikely Vikes can pull off the W on Sunday. They won't have full home field advantage and I expect up to 40-50% of the fans to be wearing olive and mustard.
 
Hakan's Picks said:
I think the market realizes that Keenum gives them a better chance to win ATM, hence why the game is on the board before they named their starting QB. Keenum and Bradford not at 100% are valued the same, and I think that's accurate given the circumstance.
Click to expand...
Sam always a statue back there. Bears 4 sacks in the first half and none in the second half and Keenum threw 20-21 passes. He's pretty mobile and hasn't taken nearly as many hits behind this OL. Huge difference. He's not the tactician that Sam is though.
 
P-Unit said:
Vikes 6-0 last 6 ATS in the division and something like 18-6 ATS in division under Zimmer (heard on the radio today). I knew the ATS record was good but had no idea it was that good. FWIW I have not gone back to verify. Just passing it along. I could see a backdoor cover but unlikely Vikes can pull off the W on Sunday. They won't have full home field advantage and I expect up to 40-50% of the fans to be wearing olive and mustard.
Click to expand...
That can't be right. They just lost by 7 two weeks ago at home vs Detroit
 
P-Unit said:
Sam always a statue back there. Bears 4 sacks in the first half and none in the second half and Keenum threw 20-21 passes. He's pretty mobile and hasn't taken nearly as many hits behind this OL. Huge difference. He's not the tactician that Sam is though.
Click to expand...
Did the Bears have sacks or should we credit those to Bradford and his Defensive stats. He fell down and was touched for the sacks. D players shouldnt get credit.
 
How much has the Skins offense changed from last year? Would have to think Shanahan would have some ideas on his old squad.
 
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