Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Geez it's Week 5 already. There's is no doubt that September and October are the months that fly by the fastest on the calendar.

These writeups went 10-6 last week, which was much needed after a couple of terrible weeks. The season total moves to 27-30, so the long climb back to better than a coin flip soldiers on. I promise that I will not be on Mississippi State for the 4th week in a row. The big goings on this week centered on UNLV and the sudden departure of Matthew Sluka out of the program after leading UNLV to a 3-0 record. A couple thoughts on that because I always like playing amateur detective. I haven't paid attention today so I don't have the most recent info, but last I heard Sluka claimed that UNLV reneged on a promise made by OC Brennan Marion that Sluka would get $100K from UNLV. UNLV says no such promise was made, all promises that were made were kept and that Sluka and his family felt he had outperformed his deal and wanted to renegotiate. Barry Odom said fuck off and he hit the road. So, somebody isn't telling the truth. My guess is that the following happened. Sluka heard something he wanted to hear, whether Marion said it or not, but there's no evidence of any deal. The family probably knows they blew it by not getting anything in writing or by not asking for more initially, so they went out and got an agent after the horse was out of the barn and that dude is trying to latch on to some cash somehow.

Ultimately, I find it very hard to believe that a team like UNLV, who has a coach who has stated that all players receive the same amount from their collectives, would offer the QB from Holy Cross $100k when they were only promising a chance to compete. Nobody knew who the starter was gong to be between him and Hahj Malik Williams until the day of their opener. There's no way a Mountain West team would be offering 100k to a kid they weren't even sure would be starting for them. Sorry, I don't buy that one. So now he's gone, but my question is this: What team would want to take him now? He's already proven that he doesn't give a shit about anything other than cash at this point. Why would anyone want a guy like that who already demonstrated he'd drop his teammates like a hot brick? Seemed like a bad move.

Miami -17.5 LOSS
Washington +2 LOSS
Northern Illinois +7.5 WIN
Western Kentucky +8 WIN
Kansas State -5 WIN
Ole Miss -16 LOSS
BYU +3.5 WIN
Arkansas +5.5 WIN
USC -14 WIN
Louisville +7 PUSH
Western Michigan +4.5 LOSS
Auburn -1 LOSS. LOL
North Carolina +2.5 WIN
Florida Int +3 WIN
Tulsa +7 LOSSSSSS
Alabama +1 WIN
Utah -8.5
Michigan State +24 LOSS
Oregon -24
Washington State +7

Friday: Going with a couple weeknight games.

1. @Miami -17.5 v Virginia Tech( BOL) : I've mentioned that I did not trust this Virginia Tech team from the get go, and I still don't. The Hokies and Brent Pry had some momentum coming into the year because of how they outplayed expectations last year and also because their schedules this year and last year are weaker than circus lemonade. Last year, they played only two teams that sent any time ranked all year, and both of them (FSU and Louisville) blew their doors off. They've already dropped two games this year, and now they have Miami, who is easily the best team they've played, and is probably better than both of those teams that blew them out last year. Assuming Cristobal doesn't exert his penchant for incompetence this week, there's a lot of reasons to like Miami. First there is no category that VT is even in the same area code with the hurricanes when you match the units u against each other. Miami's offense ranks #1 in the country in yards per play and 5th in yards per pass attempt under Cam Ward. VT is middling at best on the defensive side of the ball despite playing Vandy, Rutgers, Old Dominion and Marshall. Last week, Aidan Kaliakmanis torched them for more than 10 yards per attempt. I realize he now has access to the holy grail of passing game acumen knows as the Rutgers offensive staff, but in Kaliakmanis were talking about a kid who couldn't hit the broad side of barn prior to last week unless he was playing Howard or Akron. How is that defense going to contain this Miami outfit? Also, the Miami defense is unlikely to have issues with a VT offense who can bully the busters but can't get anything going through the air if the other team is competent or cares. As long as Miami is motivated, I don't think VT has shown the type of pedigree to hang with a top level team under Pry, and I don't expect them to start now.

Game changing play when Ward threw the INT at the goal line when Miami was about to go up 21-7 early in the second quarter. Bad play on this one though. We all knew Cristobal was due, and he should have lost outright.

 

[Timh]

Circus lemonade love it. Have a great week!

 

[B.A.R.]

Circus lemonade love it. Have a great week!

A few great lines in this write up lol.

 

[B.A.R.]

Geez it's Week 5 already. There's is no doubt that September and October are the months that fly by the fastest on the calendar.

These writeups went 10-6 last week, which was much needed after a couple of terrible weeks. The season total moves to 27-30, so the long climb back to better than a coin flip soldiers on. I promise that I will not be on Mississippi State for the 4th week in a row. The big goings on this week centered on UNLV and the sudden departure of Matthew Sluka out of the program after leading UNLV to a 3-0 record. A couple thoughts on that because I always like playing amateur detective. I haven't paid attention today so I don't have the most recent info, but last I heard Sluka claimed that UNLV reneged on a promise made by OC Brennan Marion that Sluka would get $100K from UNLV. UNLV says no such promise was made, all promises that were made were kept and that Sluka and his family felt he had outperformed his deal and wanted to renegotiate. Barry Odom said fuck off and he hit the road. So, somebody isn't telling the truth. My guess is that the following happened. Sluka heard something he wanted to hear, whether Marion said it or not, but there's no evidence of any deal. The family probably knows they blew it by not getting anything in writing or by not asking for more initially, so they went out and got an agent after the horse was out of the barn and that dude is trying to latch on to some cash somehow.

Ultimately, I find it very hard to believe that a team like UNLV, who has a coach who has stated that all players receive the same amount from their collectives, would offer the QB from Holy Cross $100k when they were only promising a chance to compete. Nobody knew who the starter was gong to be between him and Hahj Malik Williams until the day of their opener. There's no way a Mountain West team would be offering 100k to a kid they weren't even sure would be starting for them. Sorry, I don't buy that one. So now he's gone, but my question is this: What team would want to take him now? He's already proven that he doesn't give a shit about anything other than cash at this point. Why would anyone want a guy like that who already demonstrated he'd drop his teammates like a hot brick? Seemed like a bad move.

Friday: Going with a couple weeknight games.

1. @Miami -17.5 v Virginia Tech( BOL) : I've mentioned that I did not trust this Virginia Tech team from the get go, and I still don't. The Hokies and Brent Pry had some momentum coming into the year because of how they outplayed expectations last year and also because their schedules this year and last year are weaker than circus lemonade. Last year, they played only two teams that sent any time ranked all year, and both of them (FSU and Louisville) blew their doors off. They've already dropped two games this year, and now they have Miami, who is easily the best team they've played, and is probably better than both of those teams that blew them out last year. Assuming Cristobal doesn't exert his penchant for incompetence this week, there's a lot of reasons to like Miami. First there is no category that VT is even in the same area code with the hurricanes when you match the units u against each other. Miami's offense ranks #1 in the country in yards per play and 5th in yards per pass attempt under Cam Ward. VT is middling at best on the defensive side of the ball despite playing Vandy, Rutgers, Old Dominion and Marshall. Last week, Aidan Kaliakmanis torched them for more than 10 yards per attempt. I realize he now has access to the holy grail of passing game acumen knows as the Rutgers offensive staff, but in Kaliakmanis were talking about a kid who couldn't hit the broad side of barn prior to last week unless he was playing Howard or Akron. How is that defense going to contain this Miami outfit? Also, the Miami defense is unlikely to have issues with a VT offense who can bully the busters but can't get anything going through the air if the other team is competent or cares. As long as Miami is motivated, I don't think VT has shown the type of pedigree to hang with a top level team under Pry, and I don't expect them to start now.

Makes sense.

Let's not complicate this game.

Friday's can be frightful but this Canes team gets down to business.

Playoffs !! @brewers888

 

[Timh]

Brass I was considering Miami and you put me over the fence. I can't see VT doing anything offensively here and think they will be stifled. BOL.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Brass I was considering Miami and you put me over the fence. I can't see VT doing anything offensively here and think they will be stifled. BOL.

It's usually a good sign when we're on the same side, so GLTU.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Makes sense.

Let's not complicate this game.

Friday's can be frightful but this Canes team gets down to business.

Playoffs !! @brewers888

I usually try to avoid the weeknight games, but i like both of these Friday games. Hopefully they distract Cristobal enough during the game that he doesn't get involved in game management.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Washington +2 @Rutgers (BR) : Rutgers is, as usual off to a nice start to their season, as Schiano is again kicking ass and taking names in the non-conference. But now, even though they are playing Washington, this counts as a "conference game" as ridiculous as that continues to sound. It's a totally different story for Rutgers under Schiano in home conference games, as the Knights turn from totally reliable to completely helpless when it comes to covering spreads at home. Since he got there in 2020, Rutgers is 4-13 home conference games, and they haven't covered as a favorite against anyone other than Northwestern and Indiana, and the Northwestern win was in their opener, so they probably fooled themselves into thinking it was a non-conference game. Also, despite playing Akron, VT and Howard, Rutgers is somehow ranked 128th in the country in yards per carry against. Akron gashed them for 6.2 yards per carry and Brayshul Tuten, one of the least explosive running backs in the country just ran for 132 yards on 15 carries on them last week. Now Washington comes in with Jonah Coleman, who is easily the best back they've faced and is averaging more than 5 yards after contact. Rutgers has been good so far against the pass, but again, a Jedd Fisch offense run by a QB in his 5th year starting(Will Rogers) is miles better than the Punch and Judy offenses they've faced so far. Washington has had no issues stopping the run despite playing against the best running QB in the country in John Mateer and they rank 7th in the country in yards per play against, having come off allowing just 112(!!) yards against Northwestern in their first Big Ten conference game. Rutgers has been good to me, but these matchups don't look to me to be in their favor. I'll take the Huskies here.

This was a good handicap and the game was nauseating for anyone with a Huskies ticket. 3 missed FGs for the guy that missed 4 all year last year. 5 crucial personal foul penalties on Washington. A TD for Rutgers that only occurred because Washington has 12 guys on the field when they blocked a FG and then Rutgers scored on the ensuing set of downs. 3 times being stopped on downs. 500+ yards and they got to 18 points in the final minute. Just an abomination. If they played 10 times Washington would win 9 of them and 7 of those would have been double digits.

 

[B.A.R.]

2. Washington +2 @Rutgers (BR) : Rutgers is, as usual off to a nice start to their season, as Schiano is again kicking ass and taking names in the non-conference. But now, even though they are playing Washington, this counts as a "conference game" as ridiculous as that continues to sound. It's a totally different story for Rutgers under Schiano in home conference games, as the Knights turn from totally reliable to completely helpless when it comes to covering spreads at home. Since he got there in 2020, Rutgers is 4-13 home conference games, and they haven't covered as a favorite against anyone other than Northwestern and Indiana, and the Northwestern win was in their opener, so they probably fooled themselves into thinking it was a non-conference game. Also, despite playing Akron, VT and Howard, Rutgers is somehow ranked 128th in the country in yards per carry against. Akron gashed them for 6.2 yards per carry and Brayshul Tuten, one of the least explosive running backs in the country just ran for 132 yards on 15 carries on them last week. Now Washington comes in with Jonah Coleman, who is easily the best back they've faced and is averaging more than 5 yards after contact. Rutgers has been good so far against the pass, but again, a Jedd Fisch offense run by a QB in his 5th year starting(Will Rogers) is miles better than the Punch and Judy offenses they've faced so far. Washington has had no issues stopping the run despite playing against the best running QB in the country in John Mateer and they rank 7th in the country in yards per play against, having come off allowing just 112(!!) yards against Northwestern in their first Big Ten conference game. Rutgers has been good to me, but these matchups don't look to me to be in their favor. I'll take the Huskies here.

Appreciate this write-up.

This keeps me off this game.

Needed it. Great points about the Rutgers run defense and a Fisch offense.

Rutgers showed some early leaks in games the first few weeks. This certainly could be exploited again.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Appreciate this write-up.

This keeps me off this game.

Needed it. Great points about the Rutgers run defense and a Fisch offense.

Rutgers showed some early leaks in games the first few weeks. This certainly could be exploited again.

Thanks BAR, hopefully I don't cost you any $$. I should point out that the 4-13 mark I mentioned for Rutgers at home is ATS, and not straight up.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks BAR, hopefully I don't cost you any $$. I should point out that the 4-13 mark I mentioned for Rutgers at home is ATS, and not straight up.

Right on.

I wasn't going there force betting this game at all.

I just needed a good contra to my baby lean. That's all.

I keep thinking of the lookahead for UW but that really was such a different team. Sure, some players will have it in their head but so many gone as well.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Northern Illinois +7.5(-115) @NC State (BOL) : Doeren facing his old squad here. Obviously NIU got all sorts of pub and pats on the back after winning in South Bend. What came next was predictable based on how we know things go in college football with 18-22 year olds(or 24, 25 year olds), and also with the almost cosmic incompetence NIU has as a home favorite. An outright loss to Buffalo. If NIU wants to be considered for that group of 5 spot, they can still make a case because they have another shot at a Power 4 team, albeit one that looks lost in NC State. Grayson McCall has been banged up and it's unclear if he's going to play, but I don't know if it matters all that much. NC State ranks poorly in every offensive category, and that's despite their numbers including a metric ton of empty yards in garbage time against a thus far questionable Clemson defense that didn't care one bit that NC State was piling up meaningless yards. NIU's defense has been great this year, and I don't know that we can call NC State's defense any better than Notre Dame's is. NIU is 12th in yards per play against and 2nd on 3rd down. Offensively they aren't explosive but they've were extremely efficient in their last big game. They are covering machines as road dogs under Hammock(15-5 ATS since he got there 6-1 ATS since 2022). They have everything to play for and will be coming in with the goal of winning outright. NC State already has 2 losses and has looked bad in all 4 of their games. Maybe they'll figure things out, but I'll trust a squad with everything to play for coming off an embarrassing performance in a role that they have excelled in as much as anyone in the country.

Too bad the Huskies couldn't score on that last drive. Should have won the game outright. NC State managed a total of 171 yards and somehow scored 24 points. 4 turnovers to 0 with a fumble return for a TD and another leading to a 1 yard TD drive did it. Clearly the right side. It's a travesty the hook was required for an NIU cover.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Right on.

I wasn't going there force betting this game at all.

I just needed a good contra to my baby lean. That's all.

I keep thinking of the lookahead for UW but that really was such a different team. Sure, some players will have it in their head but so many gone as well.

The Michigan lookahead is a good point. I should have mentioned it, but there was a lot in the fundamental handicap that really pointed to Washington and you can talk yourself out of any play if you look hard enough for a reason to do that.

 

[Inspekdah]

Agree on both sides tonight. GL.

 

[M.W.]

Geez it's Week 5 already. There's is no doubt that September and October are the months that fly by the fastest on the calendar.

These writeups went 10-6 last week, which was much needed after a couple of terrible weeks. The season total moves to 27-30, so the long climb back to better than a coin flip soldiers on. I promise that I will not be on Mississippi State for the 4th week in a row. The big goings on this week centered on UNLV and the sudden departure of Matthew Sluka out of the program after leading UNLV to a 3-0 record. A couple thoughts on that because I always like playing amateur detective. I haven't paid attention today so I don't have the most recent info, but last I heard Sluka claimed that UNLV reneged on a promise made by OC Brennan Marion that Sluka would get $100K from UNLV. UNLV says no such promise was made, all promises that were made were kept and that Sluka and his family felt he had outperformed his deal and wanted to renegotiate. Barry Odom said fuck off and he hit the road. So, somebody isn't telling the truth. My guess is that the following happened. Sluka heard something he wanted to hear, whether Marion said it or not, but there's no evidence of any deal. The family probably knows they blew it by not getting anything in writing or by not asking for more initially, so they went out and got an agent after the horse was out of the barn and that dude is trying to latch on to some cash somehow.

Ultimately, I find it very hard to believe that a team like UNLV, who has a coach who has stated that all players receive the same amount from their collectives, would offer the QB from Holy Cross $100k when they were only promising a chance to compete. Nobody knew who the starter was gong to be between him and Hahj Malik Williams until the day of their opener. There's no way a Mountain West team would be offering 100k to a kid they weren't even sure would be starting for them. Sorry, I don't buy that one. So now he's gone, but my question is this: What team would want to take him now? He's already proven that he doesn't give a shit about anything other than cash at this point. Why would anyone want a guy like that who already demonstrated he'd drop his teammates like a hot brick? Seemed like a bad move.

Friday: Going with a couple weeknight games.

1. @Miami -17.5 v Virginia Tech( BOL) : I've mentioned that I did not trust this Virginia Tech team from the get go, and I still don't. The Hokies and Brent Pry had some momentum coming into the year because of how they outplayed expectations last year and also because their schedules this year and last year are weaker than circus lemonade. Last year, they played only two teams that sent any time ranked all year, and both of them (FSU and Louisville) blew their doors off. They've already dropped two games this year, and now they have Miami, who is easily the best team they've played, and is probably better than both of those teams that blew them out last year. Assuming Cristobal doesn't exert his penchant for incompetence this week, there's a lot of reasons to like Miami. First there is no category that VT is even in the same area code with the hurricanes when you match the units u against each other. Miami's offense ranks #1 in the country in yards per play and 5th in yards per pass attempt under Cam Ward. VT is middling at best on the defensive side of the ball despite playing Vandy, Rutgers, Old Dominion and Marshall. Last week, Aidan Kaliakmanis torched them for more than 10 yards per attempt. I realize he now has access to the holy grail of passing game acumen knows as the Rutgers offensive staff, but in Kaliakmanis were talking about a kid who couldn't hit the broad side of barn prior to last week unless he was playing Howard or Akron. How is that defense going to contain this Miami outfit? Also, the Miami defense is unlikely to have issues with a VT offense who can bully the busters but can't get anything going through the air if the other team is competent or cares. As long as Miami is motivated, I don't think VT has shown the type of pedigree to hang with a top level team under Pry, and I don't expect them to start now.

I bet Miami as well (at -19), but Cristobal still hasn't proven he can cover as a conference home favorite with Miami. He's 0-5 ATS (by 17.4 ppg) and 1-4 SU including losses as -19 and -10.

 

[2daBank]

The Michigan lookahead is a good point. I should have mentioned it, but there was a lot in the fundamental handicap that really pointed to Washington and you can talk yourself out of any play if you look hard enough for a reason to do that.

Rutgers allowing 6.5 ypc against those 3 teams kinda screams to me udub. Feel like getting to jump off big10 play Friday night opposed to a 11am Saturday is most likely helpful, think I’d be more worried if this was 2marro morning.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Keep 'em coming Brass. I don't have time to spend on handicapping this year so your thread is a valuable tool.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I bet Miami as well (at -19), but Cristobal still hasn't proven he can cover as a conference home favorite with Miami. He's 0-5 ATS (by 17.4 ppg) and 1-4 SU including losses as -19 and -10.

This is without question the biggest question mark for Miami. I usually pay very close to trends, as I think everyone knows, but the matchup is no much in Miami's favor, and there's so much more talent on this squad that I can make a case for drawing a line of demarcation between this year's team and the previous ones.

 

[He Hate Me]

This is without question the biggest question mark for Miami. I usually pay very close to trends, as I think everyone knows, but the matchup is no much in Miami's favor, and there's so much more talent on this squad that I can make a case for drawing a line of demarcation between this year's team and the previous ones.

I know it is not your thing, but I think Miami 1st half is a safer bet.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Utah -8.5 v Arizona (BOL) : This is out of chronological order but I want to get this now while the spread is where it is. This games kicks off at 10:00 PM EST, but I'm gonna upend protocol and put it here. I actually hope Cam Rising doesn't play as Utah's QB play probably won't have much impact on what the final score will be. I find it funny that people are giving Isaac Wilson shit because he's Zach Wilson's brother. Isaac's playing college football. Does anyone remember what Zack was as a college QB? Yeah, not bad. He acquitted himself very well last week despite going into a very rough hostile environment. Now Arizona and their Charmin soft run defense come into Salt lake City to face the Utah run game and Micah Bernard who is averaging almost 5 yards after contact and is near the top of the chart in missed tackles forced. I'm also not a believer in this Arizona offense under Brennan and with Fisch off to Washington. Noah Fifita was great last year, but he and McMillan have made their bones mostly on that opener against New Mexico, and they had a pretty productive effort yardage wise against K State but still only managed 7 points. I just don't think they have their footing under them and I seriously doubt they are ready for this kind of challenge. If they hang with the Utes here I'll be very surprised, and it will change my outlook, especially on Brennan, who I am not convinced is cut out to compete in a spot like this.

Count me impressed with the effort by Arizona here. They looked like the right side from jump street. I didn't think they could do it and they did. It was actually one of the plays I felt pretty good about. As the great Mike Tyson once said, "I take my hand off to them."

 

[2daBank]

I know it is not your thing, but I think Miami 1st half is a safer bet.

Speaking of not @Br@ssknux thing, I took a little bit of Ward ov 305.5 passing. I couldn’t find a team Hokies have faced going back to last season that had a passing attack close to what canes have going on, I thought it be little higher than this.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Western Kentucky +8 @Boston College (BOL) : I liked this one more at 12 earlier in the week with Castellanos playing QB, but his being ruled out has dropped this line down to 8, and even though I like Castellanos, and he's been pretty much their whole offense, 4 points is a lot for one guy. Having said that though, it makes BC presumably much more reliant on the run and short passing game(which they used a lot anyway) and WKu's major questions mark/known deficiency was downfield pass defense. They have actually been ok against the run other than trying to corral Milroe and Alabama in week 1. BC is only ranked 83rd in yards per attempt running the ball, so I don't think the Hilltoppers are going to get road grated off the field by their OL. WKU QB Caden Veltkamp is one of my favorite QBs after his performance in their bowl last year when he brough them all the way back against ODU from a 28-0 deficit with a 380 yard 5 TD performance in just under 3 quarters. They brought him back after TJ Finley got hurt/shit himself in the Alabama game, and hopefully the rest will be history. For his career he's got a 10/1 ratio and has completed almost 80% of his passes and he's run for a couple hundred yards and multiple TDs in a small sample size as well. BC is coming off the emotional high of the red bandana game last week that they were lucky to win in a rainstorm and they are now 1-6 in their last 7 as a home favorite. I'm not sure who's going to be starting in Castellanos's absence, but if it's FIU reject transfer Grayson James, who wasn't good enough to start there, I'm not anticipating an electrifying performance by the BC offense.

This one was never in doubt. WKU lost the outright late but BC never threatened to get this game under control. BC remains a go against as a home favorite.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Speaking of not @Br@ssknux thing, I took a little bit of Ward ov 305.5 passing. I couldn’t find a team Hokies have faced going back to last season that had a passing attack close to what canes have going on, I thought it be little higher than this.

Well, they game up 270 to Kaliakmanis. Not sure anything else needs to be said. That was a game down to the wire though and Rutgers needed to score, but it speaks to the raw pass defense ability of VT, that's for sure.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. @Kansas State -5 v Oklahoma State (BR) : I know it's risky to fade Gundy in a situation like this, but I don't know that the Cowboys have hit bottom yet. K State is coming off a disastrous performance in Provo last week that looked a lot worse than it was, while Oklahoma State is coming off a performance that was much worse than the final score looked, and this is a couple weeks after they won a game with Arkansas that they were outgained in by 300+ yards. K State has major B12 title aspirations so they cannot afford to lose another game. I would suspect Klieman will have them ready to play their best game, and they have a Cowboy defense that has been getting handled at the line of scrimmage all year, save a good performance at Tulsa. Try as they might, I don't think getting Ollie Gordon is a case of "when" anymore...I think it's a case of if, or even better, probably not. He's carried the ball 72 times and still can't crack 3.5 yards per carry. K State's problem on defense is pass defense, but Alan Bowman looks spooked and the backup Rangel is certainly not the answer. Kansas State is 12-3 in their last 15 as a home favorite, and even if OSU plays well, I can see a 28-17 type game here. Even in the game last week, KSU was controlling the game on the ground before a bevy of turnovers turned a 6-0 game into a 31-6 deficit in about a half hour. Chalk that one up to the goofiness of Provo. I think K State rights the ship and takes care of business here. OSU might eventually do the same, but I don't see if happening this week. Definite line value on the Cats based on the scoreboard results of the past week.

After a few drives in the doldrums K State ran off a 35-0 run in the middle of the game. Okie State defense is pretty helpless it appears. K State's not great either but there were some garbage yards in there. K State very tough to fade at home.

 

[PNGFROM2003]

I know it is not your thing, but I think Miami 1st half is a safer bet.

With a hole in my pocket may I remind you that last week Miami almost lost the 1st Half SU while easily covering the full game, much to my chagrin.

 

[He Hate Me]

Speaking of not @Br@ssknux thing, I took a little bit of Ward ov 305.5 passing. I couldn’t find a team Hokies have faced going back to last season that had a passing attack close to what canes have going on, I thought it be little higher than this.

I posted in the props thread about this. Miaimi's QB usually passes for 300+ yards against VT. The dbs and pass defense is usually the strength of the VT defense, but Delane appears to be regressing and teams can create matchup issues with the VT LBs. VT also has a coaching problem and it takes until after halftime to sorta figure things out.

I did not bet Ward over but it seems like a good bet. Your only worry is that Miami jumps out to a big lead and just runs on the VT D.

 

[He Hate Me]

With a hole in my pocket may I remind you that last week Miami almost lost the 1st Half SU while easily covering the full game, much to my chagrin.

VT is 0-4 in the first half this year.
They have scored 34 points in four 1st halves and 84 in the 2nd halves, against Vandy, Marshall, ODU, and Rutgers.
Miami is at home with a lot of eyes on them tonight.
Maybe I lose, but I like my odds.

 

[M.W.]

This is without question the biggest question mark for Miami. I usually pay very close to trends, as I think everyone knows, but the matchup is no much in Miami's favor, and there's so much more talent on this squad that I can make a case for drawing a line of demarcation between this year's team and the previous ones.

Drawing that line — that’s exactly what I did., for the same reasons. But when I searched the database yesterday and got that result, I immediately regretted the bet.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Drawing that line — that’s exactly what I did., for the same reasons. But when I searched the database yesterday and got that result, I immediately regretted the bet.

Well, it's playing out. Miami looked like they were going through the motions early, but then got things rolling. Ward's pick at the 3 yard line when they were going to make it 21-7 totally changed the game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Gotta love it.

Washington yards per play 8.79
Rutgers yards per play 5.52

2 stopped on downs and a missed FG for the Huskies. Long way to go, but the Huskies, to be kind, have been...inefficient.

Jonah Coleman, damn near 10 yards per carry.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. @Ole Miss -16 v Kentucky (BOL) : It's hard to gauge just how good Ole Miss is because they haven't played anyone of note, but their numbers say that are pretty much the best team in the country from an analytical perspective. Offensively they are explosive, mostly due to how well Jaxson Dart is playing at the outset of the season. By just about every measure he's shown to be elite, as his yards per attempt is at 13.0, he's had 11 big time throws to only 2 turnover worthy plays, etc etc. However, defensively is where Ole Miss is for real IMO. They haven't given up anything to anybody. Georgia Soiuther is no juggernaut, but they have moved the ball very well under Helton over a 2+ year sample size and Ole Miss's defense kept them to a 195 yard performance. The talent they've brought in on that side, either from their own roster or a transfer has been very good. Kiffin continues to hit on his transfers, and it's making a big difference in their roster. Kentucky's offense made a bit of a comeback against Ohio, but we've seen their limitations in their first two games against solid units, and it wasn't pretty. Brock Vandagriff isn't trustable against a good defense, and it's safe to day that Ole Miss definitely has that. I'm not big on the effectiveness of the Wildcat running game either. Kentucky definitely has a great front 7, perhaps the best Ole Miss will see save Georgia, but the Ole Miss offense isn't going to get completely shut down and I think their defense will make life miserable for Vandagriff and company. I don't think Kentucky will score enough to keep up.

I mentioned the Kentucky front 7 in the write up but I thought Ole Miss was better than they showed on both sides of the ball and they clearly weren't. Dart was very bad in this game. All kinds of rookie mistakes, taking sacks at inopportune times, etc. Way off on this one. Picking big favorites is clearly not my forte as we'll continue to see as I recap these chronologically.

 

[Br@ssknux]

More in the AM.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Gotta love it.

Washington yards per play 8.79
Rutgers yards per play 5.52

2 stopped on downs and a missed FG for the Huskies. Long way to go, but the Huskies, to be kind, have been...inefficient.

Jonah Coleman, damn near 10 yards per carry.

Well, Coleman ended up at 9.25 yards per carry, as expected. Rutgers still sucks against the run, Washington averaged 8 yards per play. They had 521 yards and scored 18 points. Outgained Rutgers 521-299

5 personal foul penalties, all crucial that either continued or ended drives. Forced a FG and blocked it, only to have had 12 guys on the field. Rutgers then scores a TD a couple plays later. Washington kicker who missed 4 FGs all year misses 3 in this one. Had this game capped pretty well, Washington was definitely the right side. Hopefully I get one of those in my favor today.

For future reference, Rutgers is not good. That was one of the luckiest wins I can remember. They went 7-15 on 3rd down and converted 5 3rd and 9 or more on a day they averaged 4.8 yards per pass. Meanwhile Washington converts 2 of 12 when Rutgers couldn't stop them all night. All the bad luck Rutgers has had over the past 10-12 years got paid back tonight.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Terrible play on Miami. Cannot trust Cristobal at home. I knew this but figured VT wasn't the team to take advantage. I was wrong on that for sure.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. BYU +3.5 @Baylor (BR) : I know this one looks like a square play with BYU having a very deceiving box score where they got every break while Baylor lost on a Hail Mary and subsequent backbreaking fumble into the EZ in OT. It seems as though that is being considered with this line because I don't think getting better than a FG with BYU is bad value. When I line these two teams up, I show BYU being a little better on a neutral, but there's a lot of intangibles that I think go BYU's way. Baylor and Aranda just seem to have a black cloud hovering over them while BYU has already won at SMU and has played very good defense in all their games thus far. Baylor has been pretty good on defense as well but were pretty severely outgained in both of their games against good competition, including last week when they only mustered 314 yards despite getting over 30 points. This shapes up to be a low scoring game, and although Jake Retzlaff has been fortunate so far this year, I like BYU's offense better with the connection between him and Chase Roberts. Getting 3.5 here is pretty valuable in what will probably be a low scoring game, and I think when it comes down to it, BYU is much more likely to come out on top given where these two program are.

BYU is probably due for a complete blowout, but I didn't think Baylor had it in them to do it and that turned out to be right. BYU blitzed them at the outset which set Baylor into scramble mode for most of the game. BYU has some moxie about them.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Agree in principal on BYU but it, literally, seems like a team that can be night and day. Just seems to excel in the former and can underwhelm, seemingly, during day games. 11A kick in Waco.

Best of luck today.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Arkansas +5.5 v Texas A&M (BOL) : This is another game that I have capped as a standstill with a couple of evenly matched teams. Both are coming off "not great" performances but both got wins, Arkansas on the road at Auburn and A&M with a lackluster home win over BG. I've been surprised at how much Arkansas has improved on defense compared to last year when it seemed they couldn't stop a nosebleed. They've been good against the run and held on pretty well against a couple rushing attacks in Okie State and Auburn that we would have assumed would be two of the top running attacks in the country. That's good this week because A&M's main competency on offense has been running the ball. Thee aren't a lot of playmakers for the Aggies, so I think the Hogs defense should have a good chance of being competitive here. I don't worry so much about he Petrino led offense, and Bobby was there in College Station last year, so he knows abut the players A&M has left, especially the two QBs if he wants to help out the defense. RB Jackson should have success and Taylen Green is being used as a runner quite a bit. I just think Arkansas has much more firepower in the skill positions(Sategna, Armstrong, Hasz) in a matchup of otherwise pretty evenly matched teams. As a result I'll take the 5.5 on a neutral site.

Turned out this was too many points between two evenly matched teams. A&M won because they won the turnover battle 3-0. A&M is fortunate they have a pretty solid defense because the Taylen Green experience of retreating 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage to escape the first sign of pressure is getting more and more prevalent. If you cover whn you lose the turnover battle by 3, you were on the right side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Agree in principal on BYU but it, literally, seems like a team that can be night and day. Just seems to excel in the former and can underwhelm, seemingly, during day games. 11A kick in Waco.

Best of luck today.

Not that you mention it, I think you're right. Hope it doesn't come into play here.

 

[B.A.R.]

8. BYU +3.5 @Baylor (BR) : I know this one looks like a square play with BYU having a very deceiving box score where they got every break while Baylor lost on a Hail Mary and subsequent backbreaking fumble into the EZ in OT. It seems as though that is being considered with this line because I don't think getting better than a FG with BYU is bad value. When I line these two teams up, I show BYU being a little better on a neutral, but there's a lot of intangibles that I think go BYU's way. Baylor and Aranda just seem to have a black cloud hovering over them while BYU has already won at SMU and has played very good defense in all their games thus far. Baylor has been pretty good on defense as well but were pretty severely outgained in both of their games against good competition, including last week when they only mustered 314 yards despite getting over 30 points. This shapes up to be a low scoring game, and although Jake Retzlaff has been fortunate so far this year, I like BYU's offense better with the connection between him and Chase Roberts. Getting 3.5 here is pretty valuable in what will probably be a low scoring game, and I think when it comes down to it, BYU is much more likely to come out on top given where these two program are.

Good bet

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @USC -14(-120) v Wisconsin(BR) : I think USC is going to have a big bounceback this week after embarrassing themselves with their lack of physicality last week at Michigan. Even though that happened, Michigan still needed the three plays where the weak efforts showed up plus a pick six to pull out that win. I've said it, but I have a lot of faith in that USC defensive staff, and they may have gotten another boost addition by subtraction style with apparent malcontent Bear Alexander transferring out. Miller Moss also did not look good last week. In my opinion he got gun shy and turned into captain check down too much. I doubt that will happen this week at home, and Wisconsin brings enough juice in this matchup to get USC ready to give their top effort in this one. That's bad news for the Badgers, who clearly are not what they once were, and even if they bring a great amount of resolve in this one, Braeden Locke is just not the kind of QB that can lead a competent effort. The Badgers overall are at 121st in yards per attempt and their pass defense is leaky at 116th in yards per attempt against, showcased by Alabama in their last game. I like a motivated USC team to bounce back here against a Wisconsin team that I don't think will be able to match up, especially now that the line has come down to where I can get 14.

It's hard to pinpoint whether this was a lucky play or it was just inevitable that USC would right the ship and bury the inferior side, but whenever your last score is a pick 6 to cover a double digit spread, you were lucky.

 

[HUNT]

10. @USC -14(-120) v Wisconsin(BR) : I think USC is going to have a big bounceback this week after embarrassing themselves with their lack of physicality last week at Michigan. Even though that happened, Michigan still needed the three plays where the weak efforts showed up plus a pick six to pull out that win. I've said it, but I have a lot of faith in that USC defensive staff, and they may have gotten another boost addition by subtraction style with apparent malcontent Bear Alexander transferring out. Miller Moss also did not look good last week. In my opinion he got gun shy and turned into captain check down too much. I doubt that will happen this week at home, and Wisconsin brings enough juice in this matchup to get USC ready to give their top effort in this one. That's bad news for the Badgers, who clearly are not what they once were, and even if they bring a great amount of resolve in this one, Braeden Locke is just not the kind of QB that can lead a competent effort. The Badgers overall are at 121st in yards per attempt and their pass defense is leaky at 116th in yards per attempt against, showcased by Alabama in their last game. I like a motivated USC team to bounce back here against a Wisconsin team that I don't think will be able to match up, especially now that the line has come down to where I can get 14.

This is gonna be a massacre. Good luck brass.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Louisville +7(-122) @Notre Dame (BOL): Louisville did not look good in their first game against a real team last week, and you could make a case that they should have lost outright despite covering the game. They got a TD on a blocked FG which ended up being the difference in the spread, so I am glad I decided to lay off taking the points on that one. I do think they match up well in this one, however. They were leaky in the secondary last week against Haynes King but shut down the Tech run game very well, which bodes well this week because ND is so dependent on the run. ND's pass defense is a strength, but they will have to face a good passing attack for the first time with a healthy Tyler Shough in Jeff Brohm's offense and a couple of very good receivers in Jacory Brooks and Chris Bell. I think the DL for Louisville will compete well against the ND line which is still banged up, and I trust Brohm as a dog. This shapes up to be a close game, so I'll take the points (albeit with extra juice) with the Cards here.

A late score by Louisville got a push here, but if you didn't buy the half point, you lost because Louisville bumbled their way through this game. Brohm foolishly went for it or 4th when he (apparently) has no competent play calls to use and it ended up burning him. Of course, I wouldn't punt if my long snapper launches it to my own 4 yard line either. ND 31 points on 283 yards.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Western Michigan +4.5 @Marshall(BOL) : Even though I got trounced when I took the points with the Broncos a few weeks back, I still am pretty high on WMU overall this year. They played Wisconsin very tough on the opener and weren't really healthy for the Ohio State game, which probably didn't matter. The good news is that they've had the equivalent of a couple weeks off after a bye and a laugher against Bethune Cookman in which they put up almost 700 yards. They should be healthy as a result and for sure should have their best player, RB Jalen Buckley back. Marshall comes into this one off a couple of very tough physical games against Ohio State and Virginia Tech and has a big conference game against Appy State next week so this is a sandwich spot for them, and a game that I think is unlikely to see an A effort from them. That's bad news because they aren't good to begin with. Their offense is unimpressive regardless of who plays. Stone Earle from North Texas is probably the best option, but he's banged up. If he plays, fine, but regardless, they are 129th in yards per pass attempt. Marshall is also 4-10 as a home favorite since '21. I like the Broncos here.

Marshall, as they often do, tried to hand WMU the game late, but WMU refused to take it. Tie game late after Marshall fumbled in their own territory, QB Wolf drops the ball on 3rd down and Marshall recovers. WMU then gives up 3 chunk plays to give up a TD. With a chance to tie in the final minute, they can't convert third and a foot on the Marshall 5 and then blow the 4th down. 4.5 s usually enough n a game like that, but giving up the TD instead of a FG late killed the Broncos. Not a great fundamental play, but Marshall needs to be faded at home.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. @Auburn -1 v Oklahoma (BR): I am no fan of Hugh Freeze or the negative vibes floating around in the Auburn program right now, but man is this a tough spot for Oklahoma. If Auburn can't find a way to get jacked up for a game against a program like Oklahoma and take care of business when they are this wounded, it doesn't bode well for Freeze's program. First of all Auburn should have beaten Arkansas last week. They outgained them by a ton, played good defense and gained 7.1 yards per play, they just threw too many picks. Oklahoma can't run the ball, and although true freshman Michael Hawkins looked good coming off the bench last week, he has to go into the program's first SEC road game into a hostile environment as a true freshman, and he has no weapons to throw the ball to. Just about every Oklahoma receiver is MIA in the infirmary, and Oklahoma hasn't been able to run the ball at all outside of QB scrambles. Their defense has been good, but Jarquez Hunter is a very good running back and Peyton Thorne(back starting now) hasn't been bad other than the INTs(10 yards per attempt!). KeAndre Lambert Smith from Penn State has been very good, so they have weapons. All they have to do is win. If a true freshman in his first start beats them in their own stadium with no weapons to speak of, they'll have to look themselves really hard in the mirror.

What a total joke. The fact is that Auburn will diligently search every nook and cranny of a game to find a way to lose. I suspected that pinning my hopes on them winning the game was foolish, and I was right despite also being right that they were capable of completely dominating the game, which they did. 482-291 yards, and almost half of Oklahoma's output was on 3 plays.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. North Carolina +2.5 @Duke(BOL) : I really expect a bounceback here for North Carolina. Reports are that Mack brown offered to resign in the locker room after the game last week if that's what it took, so I'm sure the Tar Heels took that to heart after that James Madison debacle. Going on the road(short trip that it is) is probably just what the Tar Heels need, and they won the last time they had to do it in Minnesota. Duke is 4-0, but it has to be the hollowest 4-0 we've seen in years as they've beaten Northwestern in a game that was handed to them, UConn who they beat by 5 at home, Middle Tennessee and Elon. They also have Manny Diaz now at the helm, who as a Head Coach is a really good defensive coordinator. This will be by far the best offense Duke has seen, and I think North Carolina is likely to give their best effort of the year in this one. I'm guessing that will be good enough against a Duke team who is overdue to come back to earth.

UNC was up 17-0 and then just went in the fetal position. Would have hated to have a ML ticket on them in this one. The bounce back was there, but it only lasted a half.

 

[Br@ssknux]

15. @Florida International +3(-115) v Louisiana Tech(BOL) : This is really just a play against Louisiana Tech as a road favorite. There's no way this team under Cumbie should be favored on the road. And FIU isn't bad in this role under McCarthy! Don't forget that they overwhelmed a better CMU team a few weeks ago by a 52-16 score. LT can't run the ball and FIU has been pretty stout against the pass and quite a ballhawking secondary. QB Keyone Jenkins has had some good performances in the past so I think they can have success here. FIU is also coming off an embarrassing loss to FCS Monmouth at home last week, so that's probably the reason for this line being where it is. I expect a performance more like the one against Central Michigan than last week from the Panthers or whatever they are.

FIU wasn't great but LT just doesn't have it in them to be a road favorite. They never really threatened in this game. Correct side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

16. Tulsa +7(-113) @ North Texas (BOL) : Both of these teams should be able to have success through the air, but ultimately I think this is another case of two teams pretty evenly matched. I think Tulsa will also have a better chance to run the ball than the mean Green because the Hurricane has been good against the run so far, 25th in yards per carry against. I also think the North Texas defense is problematic enough for it to be very difficult to cover a TD when they have a hard time getting off the field and I have faith in Wilson's offense, and especially Tulsa's penchant for covering as a dog on the road to keep this one close.

This was obviously a force. I wanted to play Tulsa as a road dog because they are great it at(usually) and as is documented here, I had little else. Bad, bad job here. Need to stop doing that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

17. @Alabama +1 v Georgia (BOL) : Situationally I think this sets up for Georgia, since they are coming off the bad effort against Kentucky and they are looking for revenge in this one, but I just can't overlook their overall numbers so far this year. I know they've played two good teams in Kentucky and Clemson, but Clemson has not been great on defense and Kentucky has flaws on the offensive side, so those teams don't represent a case where you can throw out the poor numbers because they are top level squads. Offensively, Georgia hasn't really been able to run the ball all that well, and it looks like they really miss McConkey and Bowers in the passing game, as they rank only 74th in 3rd down conversions. They have been banged up on the defensive line, and I'm not sure that Alabama, though they've been injured themselves, doesn't represent the best OL they've faced. Georgia has had trouble getting off the field as they are 91st in 3rd down conversions against, and if they don't get pressure on Milroe, they'll be subject to his deep ball and DeBoer's downfield passing offense. Georgia has a brutal schedule, and this is the first test. DeBoer has been an ATS wizard, and I think he'll show his mettle in this one. I expect Bama to hold serve at home here because I give Bama the edge in quite a few categories, 3rd down being he biggest on both sides of the ball.

Awesome game, great start which we can chalk up to DeBoer, and the Tide did what they needed to hold on. Good call. Georgia righted the ship in a big way, but when you get ahead like Alabama was, you just can't quite maintain the focus necessary to shut the door. Correct side here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Last one of the day is going to be Washington State + at Boise. Waiting for that one to go to 7, I'll have a write up later on.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Also, believe it or not, I was THIS CLOSE to writing up both UMass and Akron, but I figured 18 was enough for one week.