Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
I had another inadvertently large card last week as I got a bit carried away, but it worked out well (11-6), and I played a few of them in money line round robins. Had Cal not fumbled at the goal line in OT against Washington, it would have been a perfect 5 team round robin, and I don't even want to know how much that would have paid, so I didn't double check. Still a positive week though, bringing the season total to 32-21-1.

I'm out of town now so these will be sporadically added, but whenever I have time I'll add some. I don't anticipate this being a big week as far as volume. Famous last words.

Charlotte +11 WIN
Minnesota +3 WIN
TCU +4.5 LOSS
Wisconsin -1.5 LOSS
Buffalo +7 PUSH
Wake -6.5 LOSS
ND +2 LOSS
Syracuse +5.5 WIN (got screwed, should have won outright)
BG +16 WIN
Ole Miss +14.5 LOSS
Mississippi St +7.5 WIN
Louisiana Tech +18.5 WIN
Penn State -12.5 WIN
Northwestern +11.5 LOSS (Maybe jumped the gun on the Cats??)
Oregon St ML WIN

8-6-1

1. Charlotte +11 @Illinois: As a loyal Illini alum, I try to avoid writing up games they're involved in, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they cover a big number like this. In order to cover this, Illinois is going to have to rack up the points, and although I do think they should be able to run almost at will against the 49ers, that doesn't always translate into points for them. They have a penchant for a bad penalty or a sack or a poorly executed 3rd and 2 run that ends up killing drives. Charlotte's offense is pretty good, especially in the passing game, and Illinois struggles to cover with anyone other than Devon Witherspoon. The Illinois passing game struggles to get receivers open, and if Charlotte can score in the mid 20's, I don't think the Illini can get to the 38 or so points to secure the cover. Bielema needs a win desperately, regardless of how it looks, and he's likely to do what it takes to grab one, even if it means bleeding the clock out and hanging on for dear life. Illinois is looking for a win, nothing more complicated than that, and the way things have been going for them, they shouldn't assume that an outright loss is out of the question.
 
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2. Minnesota +3(-120) @Purdue: How is it possible to like a team coming off a loss to perennial laughingstock Bowling Green catching only 3 on the road to a pretty decent conference foe? Fair question, I must admit, but there's a few reasons for this. One of the least likely teams to suffer a lack of belief after a bad week are the Gophers, thanks to their Svengali-like cult leader coach PJ Fleck. His players are seemingly brainwashed to avoid all communication other than "Row the Boat", so row the boat they will. They followed a terrible effort a few weeks back with a stunningly good defensive performance on the road in Boulder, holding Colorado to less than 100 total yards and dropping a 450+ offensive performance on what otherwise seemed to be a pretty good Buffs defense. Now they travel to Purdue, fresh off a game that they should have lost to Illinois, and at their most banged up this season, without 2 major offensive cogs in WR David Bell and TE Payne Durham. Also, we have to remember that coming into the season, Purdue is one of only 2 teams in the country since Jeff Brohm took the job at Purdue who hold a below .500 outright record in games they are favored in. Losing games like this is right up their alley, and Tanner Morgan is due for a nice game after the abomination he just authored last week. Short road dogs ofterntimes tend to be much better plays than they appear to be, and I think this is no exception.
 
3. @TCU +4.5 v Texas: On paper, this looks like a total mismatch in favor of the two offenses against these defenses, especially in TCU's case, as the Frogs look pretty helpless in just about every defensive category. However, the Horns have played only 1 road game, and as we all know, college teams tend to be completely different animals depending on whether their at home or not. We all watched in horror at the carnage that resulted the last time Texas hit the road, and Gary Patterson has the Frogs full attention after a home loss to SMU. I expect a TCU bounceback effort here, especially since the game is against the Horns, who he's covered 6 of the last 7 against, and TCU is unlikely to toss out two duds in a row in front of the home crowd. Texas has Oklahoma on deck and is coming off an extremely charmed performance last week in which they got every bounce while still giving up almost 600 yards of offense. I expect this one to go down to the wire and wouldn't be surprised in the last if the Frogs pull off the win here, something they've pulled off multiple times recently in this series.
 
4. @Wisconsin -1.5 v Michigan: I originally was looking for reasons to bet on Michigan, but despite my absolute distaste for any reliance on competence from Graham Mertz, there is just too much evidence pointing in the Wisconsin direction here. Michigan has built a strong transitive resume this year. They pounded Western Michigan into submission only to see WMU win at Pitt outright. They toyed with Washington, and the Huskies have looked borderline competent the past couple of weeks since. They were up 63-3 on a Northern Illinois team that beat Georgia Tech and gave Wyoming all they could handle. Impressive stuff, to be sure, but the first time they were faced with a tough minded competent opponent in Rutgers last week, reminders of last year's Michigan team (the one that went 2-4 and was outgained 468-219 by this same Wisconsin team in Ann Arbor last year)were conjured. The Wolverines were outgained 231-42 after halftime adjustments by the Scarlet Knights and held on for dear life for the win. Wisconsin gave up 41 points last week against Notre Dame, but we all know that was a mirage, as the Irish cashed in on 3 D/ST touchdowns. This Wisconsin defense is legit as always, and Michigan finds itself away from the cushy confines of the Big House for the first time this season. They have looked great so far this year, there's no doubt, but they are highly likely to see a regression on the road, and Wisconsin is off an embarrassing performance and already has a home loss this year. They're unlikely to have a second less than halfway through the season, and Michigan is due to see some regression.
 
5. @Buffalo +7 v Western Michigan: At the beginning of the year, I did not anticipate playing ON Buffalo at all this season. Lance Leipold bolted at a late stage for Kansas and took his whole coaching staff with him, leaving the Bulls in the lurch a bit. A lot of their leftover players didn't dig the vibe after his departure, so there was a transfer portal exodus, leaving the new staff in a tough spot. However, there is some carry over from the solid Bulls teams of the past few years, QB Van Tresse came back as did backup RB Kevin Marks, who got a lot of work. In short, they aren't as bad as I thought they'd be. Don't get me wrong, they aren't good, as last week's squeaker win over ODU in which they were outgained by 100+ yards shows. However, that was a road game, and this is at home. So far this year in their 2 home games the Bulls have mauled Wagner(not a big deal) and stood toe to toe with Coastal(more of a big deal), falling by only 3 as a double digit home underdog. That moved their record since 2017 as a home dog to a perfect 7-0 ATS. Also, in that same period, I couldn't find a failed cover at home in a conference game, and I stopped counting at 12, so they've covered at least their last 12 MAC home games. I think it's safe to say that there's something going on for the Bulls in their home games. I usually ignore trends when new coaching staffs come in, but that trend is a bit too strong to ignore. Western Michigan has had a couple weeks of good performances, and they played an almost perfect game against San Jose State last week, but we all know how college kids are, and they're due for a clunker and there's probably no situation better to call for that than a road game at the place that's been a house of horrors for every team in the MAC. If WMU rises up and takes care of the Bulls on their home field, I'll tip my cap, and since I have the Broncos at +1050 to win the MAC, it works out to be a bit of a hedge for me. I should tell you though...I'm a TERRIBLE futures bettor, so that one is due to go up in flames at some point....might as well be now.
 
Timh said:
BOL Brass - tough card imo this week, like a few under total plays the best I think.
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I agree Timmy. There's some games I'm passing on that I would usually be on, but I either lost line value or had an uneasy feeling about them.
 
6. @Wake -6.5 v Louisville: Now that this is under a TD, I had to jump on it. Last year Wake traveled to Louisville in the season finale having not turned the ball over at all for the entire season. The Cardinals were among the worst teams in the country, if not THE worst in turnover margin. Naturally, I was on Wake, and naturally, Wake lost the turnover battle and lost handily in one of the most confounding games I can remember from last year. I'm not a big revenge player...actually I usually don't consider it at all, but I remember Clawson having a very testy press conference after that game. Wake was pissed off, and I suspect they'll be looking to make amends. This seems like a really good week for that as Louisville is on a 3 game win streak and a second consecutive road game, making them ripe for a bad effort. Wake meanwhile has outplayed everyone on their schedule, and in some circles, there's some talk of them being a darkhorse candidate to win the ACC. Louisville beat FSU on the road last week, but so does everyone else including Jacksonville State, and they were pretty severely outgained in the process. Louisville ranks 109th in total defense, 111th in run defense and 101st in yards per pass attempt against, and we all know shaky defenses don't travel. It's a rare favorite for me, but I expect Wake to roll here.
 
7. @Notre Dame +2 v Cincinnati: I like everyone else have been mostly unimpressed by Notre Dame, and I understand that the result of the Wisconsin game from last week as nowhere near indicative of the actual scrimmaging on the field. We can all agree however, that making ND almost a full TD underdog in that game was ridiculous, and I see a lot of the same logic at play here in this game. It's true that Notre Dame ended up with 3 non offensive TDs last week, but the talent on their roster makes them fully capable of making plays like that every week. Cincinnati looks pretty good on paper due to the competition they've played, but anyone that watched them play against Indiana was holding back derisive laughter at the thought of them being considered as one of the top 15-20 teams in the country, let alone playoff worthy. Indiana was handing it to them on both lines of scrimmage, and had they not imploded, I think this spread would look different than it does now. Making ND a dog here gives them a completely different edge and will make it extremely easy for Kelly to motivate them. Cincy will have to totally outplay them and hope that ND doesn't get any breaks to win this, and I think that's a tall order
 
8. Syracuse +5.5 @ Florida State: This seems like a square side, but I can't see how Florida State is favored here. Although there have been sporadic bright spots for them this year, they remain incapable of beating anyone, and don't look now, but Dino Babers has Syracuse playing well enough to be in bowl contention. They are 3-1 and their one loss was to a solid Rutgers squad that came down to the wire and could have been a different story if not for a very questionable call near the end that almost got Babers ejected from the game. They held Rutgers to less than 200 yards in that game and have a defense that is likely to match up well with FSU. Whatever QB plays for FSU is likely to be running for his life because the Orange have been getting to the QB, and we all know how much FSU struggles with sacks (123rd in sacks allowed). Can anyone actually envision FSU being able to run away from a competent ACC squad (which is what Syracuse has been) with a good defense, even if they don't get much of anything going on offense? I can't.
 
Brass - ND is killing me, they are running an uncomfortable scheme on D, OL stinks, and Coan has pigeon shit on his helmet....yet they seem to keep winning. In back of my mind though is the coaching aspect...I can't get over Fickell coaching in last years bowl loss. I am just going to stay far the fuck away....GL
 
9. Bowling Green +16 @Kent: I really liked Kent's offense last year. Dustin Crum was a snappy passer and they could move the ball up and down the field. The problem was their defense. So far this year, they've played some great competition, but the offense just hasn't been the same as last year. Now they get some class relief in BG, who over the past 2 years has established themselves as one of the lowest performing programs i the country. Notice that I said "lowest performing", because prior to this recent period, BG had been one of the top programs in the MAC, having gone to 5 bowls in a row in the mid 2010s. BG has actually been one of the best success stories this year relative to expectations, having covered all 4 of their games and shocking everyone with an outright win at Minnesota last week that was no fluke. Kent may expect a breather against the BG defense, but they'll be no pushover, as they allowed only 241 yards to Minnesota last week including only 59 yards passing while sacking Tanner Morgan 4 times. They have the 25th ranked defense in yards per play and sit at 17th in yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Kent's defense looks to be what it's always been (120th) having been lit up in all 3 FBS games they've played. This 16 point spread is still highly influenced by BG's terrible performances the past couple years, and doesn't really reflect what's happened on the field this year. Again, this game will represent some pretty significant class relief for the Flashes, but BG doesn't deserve to be such a big dog in this one.
 
Some of these line moves....wow. So much for Nevada, Army, and a couple more. Can't recommend those games when you could have done 3 points better yesterday.
 
10. Ole MIss +14.5 @ Alabama: Like just about everyone else on the planet, I'm gonna roll the dice with Kiffin and Matt Corral here. I'm a believer in this being the year of the underdog and the year of the upset, and with the way Ole Miss has looked on offense(and with their seemingly newfound competence of defense) I like their chances to keep this one close. Florida really gave the Tide defense fits, and I can definitely see Kiffin being able to scheme a lot of points in this one, as he did almost at will last year against the Tide. If you look at what they've done so far this year, they completely toyed with Louisville and Tulane, two teams that have looked pretty good otherwise. Although I hate going against Alabama, and they are overdue for 2-3 defensive scores, I think this season almost dictates a loss somewhere fo the Tide and this week looks as likely as any of them.
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. Ole MIss +14.5 @ Alabama: Like just about everyone else on the planet, I'm gonna roll the dice with Kiffin and Matt Corral here. I'm a believer in this being the year of the underdog and the year of the upset, and with the way Ole Miss has looked on offense(and with their seemingly newfound competence of defense) I like their chances to keep this one close. Florida really gave the Tide defense fits, and I can definitely see Kiffin being able to scheme a lot of points in this one, as he did almost at will last year against the Tide. If you look at what they've done so far this year, they completely toyed with Louisville and Tulane, two teams that have looked pretty good otherwise. Although I hate going against Alabama, and they are overdue for 2-3 defensive scores, I think this season almost dictates a loss somewhere fo the Tide and this week looks as likely as any of them.
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If they gonna lose one before the sec champ or playoffs I really believe this the one. AM don’t have the offense to beat them imo.
 
Funny you should mention A&M there Bank....we're on the same wavelength.

11. Mississippi State +7.5 @Texas A&M: I don't know if anyone has watched Zach Calzada play quarterback the past couple of weeks, but as long as he is suiting up against any defense with some talent and skill, I'm going to take whatever points are given to me, and 7.5 with Mississippi State is more than adequate for me. A&M is going to want to run the ball, but MSU(16th against the run and 11th on 3rd down) won't be a pushover there, especially without much fear of being burned with the passing game. A&M is good on defense, but although they don't typically gain large chunks in the passing game, Leach's use of the short passing game moves the sticks and can drive a defense nuts. Unless Calzada makes major strides, I can see the Aggie faithful getting restless, and that makes for an awkward environment. A&M is just not built to cover spreads as a favorite right now. Calzada has to prove that he can be explosive for that to be possible, and there hasn't been any indication that he can do that.
 
12. Louisiana Tech +18.5 @NC State: All indications are that QB Austin Kendall will start this game, so I'm going to pull the trigger here. You couldn't conjure up a worse letdown spot than this for the Wolfpack, coming off the overtime win over Clemson. Skip Holtz's squads have always been very good road dogs, and although they tend to get outgained in games, they always find a way to hang around. They are 2-2 this year but should without question be 4-0 after blowing a 20 point 4th quarter lead and missing a FG at the buzzer at Mississippi State and losing at the gun on a Hail Mary against SMU on a play that SMU's left tackle openly tackled a pass rusher right in front of the referee. Now they are given 18 more points to work with. The Bulldogs have averaged 38 points per game with Kendall at QB, so anything less than a top notch effort from the Wolfpack offense is probably not going to be enough to cover this. Tech makes a habit of hanging around, and I wouldn't expect anything different here. If NC State takes care of business here, they'll be worthy of a major tip of the cap.
 
13. @Penn State -12.5 v Indiana: This is another one that I'm not really breaking any new ground on, and I suspect is a pretty popular side. There's just so much going against Indiana here, despite their competence in covering as a road favorite historically. First, in my opinion, the ship has sailed for Michael Penix. He just can't complete passes downfield, and unless Indiana get their run game or short passing game going, Penix just doesn't complete enough passes to sustain drives. Also, Franklin has been money at home and a almost never fails to cover off a win. The Lions also probably have this game circled as they dominated the Hoosiers last year only to fall victim to the phantom confirmed replay call of the 2 point conversion that beat them last year. It's a night game in Happy Valley...if Indiana can do enough to cover in this one, it'll be an impressive feat, and a front door cover is just as likely as a back door due to Franklin's penchant to not let up when ahead, especially in a game like this one. Penn State will be all too happy to put IU's season in the same kind of swan dive that the lived through last year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Funny you should mention A&M there Bank....we're on the same wavelength.

11. Mississippi State +7.5 @Texas A&M: I don't know if anyone has watched Zach Calzada play quarterback the past couple of weeks, but as long as he is suiting up against any defense with some talent and skill, I'm going to take whatever points are given to me, and 7.5 with Mississippi State is more than adequate for me. A&M is going to want to run the ball, but MSU(16th against the run and 11th on 3rd down) won't be a pushover there, especially without much fear of being burned with the passing game. A&M is good on defense, but although they don't typically gain large chunks in the passing game, Leach's use of the short passing game moves the sticks and can drive a defense nuts. Unless Calzada makes major strides, I can see the Aggie faithful getting restless, and that makes for an awkward environment. A&M is just not built to cover spreads as a favorite right now. Calzada has to prove that he can be explosive for that to be possible, and there hasn't been any indication that he can do that.
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We sure are, like this one also!
 
So much for a smaller card. And I've still got more to add. Will have some night games tomorrow. Just watching some lines, but I'll definitely be on my Beavers again, just letting you know now.
 
Br@ssknux said:
So much for a smaller card. And I've still got more to add. Will have some night games tomorrow. Just watching some lines, but I'll definitely be on my Beavers again, just letting you know now.
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I was surprised when you said that cause I liked a lot this week. On bunch the same, only against ND as I think cincy looks good more than on paper, that defense has nfl talent at every level imo. Irish defense solid too so outta be a good one. If cincy plays as sloppy they did at Indy you will get the paper. Just think gettin a bye after that game while Irish got beat up in Chicago makes this a tough ask for nd even at home, hate being against you tho. Gl this week
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Wisconsin -1.5 v Michigan: I originally was looking for reasons to bet on Michigan, but despite my absolute distaste for any reliance on competence from Graham Mertz, there is just too much evidence pointing in the Wisconsin direction here. Michigan has built a strong transitive resume this year. They pounded Western Michigan into submission only to see WMU win at Pitt outright. They toyed with Washington, and the Huskies have looked borderline competent the past couple of weeks since. They were up 63-3 on a Northern Illinois team that beat Georgia Tech and gave Wyoming all they could handle. Impressive stuff, to be sure, but the first time they were faced with a tough minded competent opponent in Rutgers last week, reminders of last year's Michigan team (the one that went 2-4 and was outgained 468-219 by this same Wisconsin team in Ann Arbor last year)were conjured. The Wolverines were outgained 231-42 after halftime adjustments by the Scarlet Knights and held on for dear life for the win. Wisconsin gave up 41 points last week against Notre Dame, but we all know that was a mirage, as the Irish cashed in on 3 D/ST touchdowns. This Wisconsin defense is legit as always, and Michigan finds itself away from the cushy confines of the Big House for the first time this season. They have looked great so far this year, there's no doubt, but they are highly likely to see a regression on the road, and Wisconsin is off an embarrassing performance and already has a home loss this year. They're unlikely to have a second less than halfway through the season, and Michigan is due to see some regression.
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I agree 100%
 
14. Northwestern +11.5 @Nebraska: We can debate a lot of things about college football over the past decade or so, but one thing that's not up for debate is the coaching chops of Pat Fitzgerald. If you decided a few years ago that you would just wait for Northwestern to be a road dog and put the majority of your bankroll in Fitzy's hands, you would be rich. Northwestern is 11-2 ATS in that role since 2016, and he's never been bad in it, as you can go all the way back to 2008 and he's 30-11 as a road dog. Road favorite, no. Home favorite, no. Home dog, not bad, but not an auto atic play. Road dog? Yes. Admittedly, I was planning on skipping this year because Fitzgerald's only kryptonite over the past dozen or so years has been one Hunter Johnson, who in 2019 delivered the most fraudulent and downright incompetent quarterbacking performance for any extended period in recent memory. When he was announced as the starter (probably because Fitzy didn't have a choice due to injuries, etc) I decided they were a no go for me. Well, very quietly Hunter Johnson appears to have faded into the background as Ryan Hilinski started last weeks game against Ohio. Fitzgerald also had a myriad of changes to make on defense as the Cats were a rare squad who didn't return a bunch of guys. He's had a few weeks to adjust, and now that Johnson is no longer fouling things up, I am back on the "Northwestern as a road dog" bandwagon. And what greater timing can we have than to see Scott Frost and the Nebraska Cornhuskers show up next on the schedule? During that same period, (since 2016), the Huskers come in at 9-14 as a home favorite. Even though I have concerns about Northwestern being able to stop the Martinez kid, can we envision some fortunate things happening for Northwestern and some unfortunate things happening for the Huskers? Sure we can!
 
15. @Oregon State -120 ML v Washington: Usually I rule out games that move 3-5 points against me, but in this case, it was the move across zero which I don't find all that concerning since I think Oregon State is going to win this game. Now, let me preface by saying that the Beavs are by far in their best role when they are on the road taking points, and that is not the case here. Their track record at home isn't great, but I think they are the better team here and I suspect this will be a huge coaching mismatch between Jonathan Smith and Jimmy Lake. This is a major turning point for the Beavers. They won at Southern Cal last week (easily) and they can see a turning point season on the horizon, but they have to slay another dragon from their past in Washington, who they've had very little success against. Luckily for them, this Washington team isn't the dragon they've seen in the past. This OSU offense is legimiately good with tons of speed at the skill spots. QB Chance Nolan has been operating at high efficiency since he took the reigns and running back BJ Baylor is an NFL caliber back. Washington struggles stopping the run, so I suspect Baylor will have lots of room to operate, The Beaver defense also has been very stout against the run, which is what Washington wants to do. Washington has righted what appeared to be the Titanic after two weeks, but now has to go back on the road, and even one of the wins(last week against Cal) was shaky as they snuck by in OT thanks to a fumble at the goal line in a game they were outgained by 150 yards. Rolling with a Beaver team I really like here.
 
Final thoughts....

I don't have the balls to write up taking New Mexico State in any scenario, but has anyone seen what San Jose State has been up to this year? They didn't even crack 120 yards against Western Michigan and they're laying 26.5? Like I said, I would never trust my cash to NMSU, but that was notable to me.
 
Best of luck to everyone. Looks like a great day of college football. I'm really looking forward to watching a lot of these.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Final thoughts....

I don't have the balls to write up taking New Mexico State in any scenario, but has anyone seen what San Jose State has been up to this year? They didn't even crack 120 yards against Western Michigan and they're laying 26.5? Like I said, I would never trust my cash to NMSU, but that was notable to me.
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SJSU QB is game time decision I believe
 
Br@ssknux said:
Final thoughts....

I don't have the balls to write up taking New Mexico State in any scenario, but has anyone seen what San Jose State has been up to this year? They didn't even crack 120 yards against Western Michigan and they're laying 26.5? Like I said, I would never trust my cash to NMSU, but that was notable to me.
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im so disappointed in sjst this year,., i been so high on them and what been being built the last few years but starkel and the offense been complete ass.. ive lost with them against usc and that disgusting game in hawaii where they only managed 17 freaking points vs that crap hawaii d!! i couldnt lay any big numbers with them right now..
 
Anyone with two eyes knows that the Syracuse QB scored on that 4th down play. On another note, if Syracuse was coached competently, they would be up by multiple scores right now
 
Well, we learn lessons every week don't we? My lesson this week? Remember to follow previously learned lessons, i.e. do not bet on games involving Alabama.
 
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