Week 5 Write ups, hopefully feedback.

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Duty has called for the past couple weeks so I haven't been able to spend enough time to get some logical thoughts down on paper, but I'm hoping to have some time later today and tonight so I'll be adding to this as we go.

I like the weeknight card this week. Both of the major conference games are nice matchups tonight, and tomorrow has 2 very interesting games too.

I actually like several of the games...I think there's line value in Texas Tech(+13.5)catching almost two TDs, since I'm not sure Okie St can stop them, but I don't want to get in front of the Gundy ATS train, and the Kingsbury ATS train veered off the tracks and crashed late last year and hasn't been able to get back up since. I'm also somewhat skeptical of Fresno State being a road favorite anywhere, as bad as they've looked, but New Mexico(+5.5) can't stop a soul either, so I'll probably avoid hitching my wagon to that one. I like this one though:






1. @Arizona State +4.5 v UCLA: First things first: ASU Qb Taylor Kelly is injured for this game, so as a result, ASU is getting some points here instead of presumably being a slight favorite if they had Kelly. Backup Mike Bercovici will be starting. For a couple reasons, I don't think the loss of Kelly will be that significant. First, Bercovici has been in the program since Graham arrived in 2012, so he certainly familiar with the schemes. Second, if you remember, Taylor Kelly came in to Graham's offense that first year having never taken a collegiate snap and hit the ground running. In my opinion, that's more a comment on Graham's system and his coaching than it is on Kelly. 3rd, the offense is more reliant on the running game and short passing than it is on downfield throws that put pressure on the QB. With a full week and change for Graham to prepare Bercovici, I think he will do just fine. As far as the rest of these squads, even if Brent Hundley plays(and that's no guarantee) he's not 100%, and the UCLA offensive line has struggled immensely. They are tied for last in the country (127th) in tackles for loss allowed, more than 10 per game. In the past two meetings, ASU has sacked Hundley 14 times(9 last year), and even though ASU had heavy losses on defense from last year, Graham(who also designs the defensive game plan) knows how to pressure UCLA, and will certainly be looking to exploit that issue. UCLA will also be without their top DB playmaker Randall Goforth, who's out for the year. LB Myles Jack, maybe their best player, is banged up as well. Overall, I think most people would surmise that UCLA has not looked anything close to a top 10 team this year, and they are fortunate to not have 2 losses. I understand why the line is what it is, but given the circumstances, I think there is quite a bit of value with the home dog here. It's supposed to be a "blackout" so there should be some big energy in the building. If UCLA shows up with their A game and covers, I'll tip my hat, but it will be asking a lot of them in my opinion.

Like I said, I'll be back later on. Take care,
 
Solid thoughts....on UCLA, so good health...looking forward to see what you got for the weekend
 
Against CC on this one so a bit worried, but I got a better line.

2. @Penn State -9.5 v Northwestern: Fitzy and his boys have been in a hellacious ATS slump lately, having failed against the spread in 9 of the past 10 games after a really nice ATS run prior to that. It seems the worm has turned in that program, and all the optimism and sunshine for Fitzy and his "young men" has seemed to turn into a bit of a black cloud. This year, they're 1-2 with their only win being a 24-7 taffy pull against Western Illinois in which they gained only 283 yards. I'm not sure what the story is with Trevor Siemien, but he can't seem to get anything going through the air(not even in the top 100 in ypa), and he isn't a running threat. Neither are the running backs apparently, as their 114th ypc ranking will attest. They've been killed by suspensions(Venric Mark) and injuries (Top WRs Tony Jones and Christian Jones). They just don't have anyone that can go out and make a big play on offense. Now they roll into Happy Valley, where James Franklin is settling in. They've quietly put together a very nice year defensively. Although they've played no offensive juggernauts, they are still ranked #1 in the country in rush defense, and 20th against the pass. Offensively, Penn State has not done a great job converting drives into points, but Hackenberg has moved the ball well through the air, and pass defense has never been the Cats forte. I think the year is going downhill fast for Northwestern, and I don't think it's asking much for Penn State to put together enough drives to put this game out of reach.
 
Great reads Brass

I am on ASU with you and you pinpointed exactly why

No real opinion on the Penn St game but at least you're on the right side of the 10
 
Schrute said:
Great reads Brass

I am on ASU with you and you pinpointed exactly why

No real opinion on the Penn St game but at least you're on the right side of the 10
Click to expand...

Thanks Dwight....Had it been more than 10 or 11, I'd be more hesitant, but I really think this Northwestern squad is in trouble. Just no ability to move it consistently, and Penn State is a bad matchup. No motivation issues for PSU IMO either.
 
3. Iowa -9 @Purdue: If you look at the numbers, Purdue hasn't actually been atrocious this year statistically. Having said that, they are by no means a good football team, or even an average football team. For whatever reason, they always play Notre Dame tough, and it happened again 2 weeks ago as the Irish were caught in a flat spot off their big win over Michigan. Purdue followed that up with a win against SIU, something that surprised me a bit as I half expected them to shit the bed against the Salukis. Alas, they managed competent play, so good for them. They still had stretches in that game where they played their trademark feeble offense, and Iowa righted the ship last week with a nice win over Pitt.... a win in which they might have found a quarterback in CJ Beathard. I'm still going to jump at the chance to fade Purdue when I don't even have to cover two scores. After they hung with Notre Dame last year, they followed that up with a 8 week shitfest for the ages. Purdue struggles in a lot of areas, but standing up a power running game with sound tackling is definitely one of them.

 
4. @Virginia Tech -21 v Western Michigan: So far Western Michigan is 2-1 and has some pretty decent offensive numbers, but they've played Purdue(and gave up 43 points and lost to those buffoons in the process) Idaho and Murray State. Now they go into Blacksburg only getting 21 because Virginia Tech is on a 2 game losing streak. Frankly, I can't really blame the Hokies as much as everyone else seems to be killing them. East Carolina is in my opinion a top 15 squad, and the Georgia Tech game was just one of those games where you run into some bad luck with the turnover fairy and get beat by a pretty good team at the gun. VT MUST have this game, and they need to gain confidence in the process. WMU's offense has beaten up on a couple pansies thus far, but their running back is not going to run for 233 yards on 33 carries in this game. Also, when you're giving up 43 points to Purdue, it doesn't bode well for your defensive chops. If VT comes out and plays their game, this one should be a 47-10 type game. ​
 
Had to quit watching that ASU/UCLA game. ASU is fucking dominating, yet UCLA in the game because of turnovers and perhaps the worst case of keystone cops defense of all time on the long TD pass. Then that dude picks off a pass while exhibiting a textbook definition of face guarding. Yikes.
 
5.@NC State +18.5 v Florida State: We've only played 4 weeks thus far, so there's still a lot of jockeying for position as far as statistics go, but here's where FSU ranks in some of the standard categories: Rush offense: 99th; Passer rating: 55th; Rush defense: 54th; Passer rating against: 83rd. In addition to that, some of the more analytical stats like them even less. On the flip side, although they've played a much weaker schedule, NC State has been a pretty good offensive team, and they certainly looked the part defensively in their game on the road at South Florida. Florida State isn't even in the same stratosphere with what they were last year, and they were exposed by Clemson, absurdly lucky to get out of that game with a win. I would not be surprised if Nc State knocks them off this week, and 18.5 is a gift, given the performances FSU has put out there so far this year.
 
As for that game last night, I mentioned this elsewhere, but by my count UCLA scored 5 TDs during a span in which they ran 4 offensive plays. That has to be some sort of record, doesn't it??
 
I would think its a record. Tough to watch for ASU backers if they didn't throw their TV out the window first
 
7. Texas A&M -9.5 v Arkansas: This game is likely to be a high scoring game, as both offenses are dynamic. However, the higher the score of the game, the easier it gets to cover double digits. Arkansas has garnered a heck of a lot of praise and glory from talking heads lately because they've literally run over their opponents over the past two weeks. That's nice for them, and there's a chance that they will have a lot of success running the ball against this A&M defense, but I KNOW that Arkansas has no chance to stop A&M's offense. In week one, during the first half, Arkansas looked almost unstoppable, gashing Auburn for huge chunks of yardage and easy TDs. However, once Auburn got their bearings, the game turned quickly and the Tigers ran away and hid. I think the chances are good for a repeat this week. Although no reputation precedes them, A&M's defense is getting better rapidly, and they certainly have better talent and athleticism than Texas Tech or Northern has. What happens if A&M stacks the box and stops the run? Then my friends, we have an ugly afternoon shaping up for the Hogs, because they are going to give up points by the bushelful.
 
I decided I needed the 7 but agree with most of what you say .. again. Tend to see some things the same way despite your penn state play
 
8. @UAB -14(buy it) v FIU: So far this year, UAB has been pretty impressive, outgaining Mississippi St and blowing out Troy. Now they come home to face old buddy Ron Turner and the FIU Panthers. FIU has actually fallen short of being the hands down worst team in FBS, thanks mostly to a defense that has at least provided a modicum of resistance, but their offense is still without any pretense of competence, ranking 120th in rushing and 102nd through the air. Whatever progress they've made this year has been all at home, and I'm willing to bet that they'll resemble last year's sorry bunch in their first road game. I don't think it's asking much of UAB to cover in this spot.
 
Regarding NCSU I agree with your reasoning but why not just play the under. FSU is not gonna be fooled by the read option stuff but it will run the clock. NCSU will be pumped and I think Jameis will have some issues tomorrow night. I think FSU wins but I don't think both team hits 30.

Totally agree with UAB. Think they win by 20+
 
Agree with your reasoning, but I almost never play totals. Every game I touch seems to have 3 defensive scores, so I am bad with those. Sometimes team totals, but I stick to spreads.
 
9. @Virginia -28 v Kent: I hate to be on another favorite, but Kent State is absolutely pathetic at this point. They were terrible to begin with, but have had a rash of injuries including one to their only decent player, RB Trayion Durham. He's questionable for this game, but banged up nonetheless. They can't score, and their defense gave up 600+ to Ohio State 2 weeks ago. This is a MAC program that will spend the next couple of years getting absolutely destroyed while collecting checks from the big boys until they find a coach who can make them respectable again like Darrell Hazell did a couple years ago. Dri Archer ain't walkin through that door. As long as UVA can muster up about 35 points, they'll cover this. Like OSU, it might be covered in the first half.
 
10. Cincinnati +17.5 @ Ohio State: I'm a bit afraid that this might be a little bit of a square play, but in my opinion it's just too much value against a team that I don't really believe in against competent competition. I can definitely see a scenario where Cincy pulls the upset here, and when possibility is on the table, you have to take 17+. Ohio State's overall numbers are pretty good, but everything in their numbers is skewed because they have a game against Kent in there where they outgained the Flashes by 500+. Ohio State is another of these teams that appear to find ways to fuck things up, similar to Michigan. The found a way to lose to Virginia Tech as a 13 point favorite even though Va Tech went pretty much the whole game without doing anything on offense. Cincy's numbers also don't look all that great, especially on defense, but in both games, I think there's an explanation. In their first game, they were up 34-0 less than 20 minutes into the game against a Toledo team with a good offense chasing a deficit all night. In the second game, they showed up to play a Miami(Oh) team that they held to 87 total yards last year, but who is obviously improved, so they slept through that game looking ahead to this one. Cincinnati would like nothing more than to knock off big brother, and they have the offense and passing game to do it with former top recruit Gunner Kiel. You should also not discount the presence of all time asshole Tommy Tuberville, who lives for these types of situation(assuming he's still awake). He's also had some pretty good success against Meyer over the years when the two of them were in the SEC.
 
11. Missouri +6 @South Carolina: It's funny, you would think that the general consensus would be that people would be more down on Missouri coming off a loss at home against Indiana than South Carolina coming off a win on the road at Vandy, but Vandy is so bad, that you'd be wrong. If you haven't had a chance to see the OBC's press conferences after the game and the following day, I highly recommend looking for them. Both of these teams are reeling a bit coming off their awful performances, but I have a very hard time laying points with South Carolina here because their defense has been so terrible. They've played some very good offenses, but rank 121st in the country in yards per play.The kicker for me was that they gave up almost 7 yards per play to Vandy for crying out loud. I can understand giving up chunks of yardage to A&M and East Carolina but when you're giving up 15 yards per completion to Vandy, you've got a severe issue on your hands. Missouri definitely has the playmakers on offense to move the ball, and they also have a front 4 that can pressure the quarterback. I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'll take the 6. South Carolina is going to have to put up a lot of points to be safe from a backdoor even in Missouri's worst case scenario.
 
12. @Clemson -15.5 v North Carolina: It's obviously very easy to overreact and lay points against North Carolina after watching their abhorrent performance against ECU last week, but you better believe I'm going to overreact. I was holding an ECU ticket last week, but I was downright offended and angry at how a team of kids getting a free education could embarrass themselves and their school as much as that North Carolina defense did. They were so bad that even if they show massive improvement, they'll still give up 600+ to Clemson. 789 total yards. 7.5 yards per rush on 46 carries!! 46!!! You would normally think that the situation would be a tough one for Clemson, but they come into this home game desperate for a win, since they already have 2 losses, and their offensive plan has been clarified because they've settled on Watson as their QB. Defensively, they have the athletes to contain this UNC offense. Even before the ECU fiasco, Carolina was severely outplayed at home against San Diego State a couple weeks prior, so I don't think the ECU game was a fluke, they are just bad.
 
13. Memphis +21 @Ole Miss: This is a rivalry game, believe it or not due to proximity, but this year, even though this is one of Ole Miss's best teams, I think Memphis can hang with them. First of all, for whatever reason, despite playing a couple patsies and Boise, Ole Miss has had a hard time stopping the run, and that's been Memphis's MO so far this year. Memphis already traveled out to UCLA at a similar number and played the Bruins to a standstill. Their passing game has also come along quite a bit, as it was the major thing holding them back last year, despite the presence of a good defense. The biggest issue for Ole Miss in this game though is that this is a classic look ahead for the Rebs, as Bama is coming to town next week. Possible College GameDay in Oxford...I'm sure that whole campus is getting their Sunday best ready for the party next week. 21 will be a lot for them to cover. Ole Miss should be able to score, but Memphis is no slouch.
 
14. Washington State +14(buy it) @ Utah: Every once in awhile Mike Leach knocks someone off when you aren't expecting it. Despite being desperate for a win at 1-3, this Wazzou team is not a bad squad, as their performance last week against Oregon will attest. Not many people paid attention, but Oregon had to score with 5 minutes left, and then get a stop in the red zone to hold off the Cougs in a game in which the total yardage difference was only 501-499. Connor Halliday turns it over, but there's no doubt he can air it out and the Utes will have their hands full with this offense. Given Wazzou's defensive deficiencies, the Utes will score too, but the situation really favors Washington State, with Utah coming off that win in Ann Arbor and staring at a trip to UCLA on deck. 2 scores will be a lot for the Utes to cover here, especially in a game that they're unlikely to bring their best effort.
 
15. Baylor -21(for now on Betonline) @Iowa State: We all know about Baylor's offense, and Iowa State is going to have all kinds of trouble slowing them down especially with Antwaan Goodley coming back, but that defense is the big reason that I like Baylor. Last year they played at a high level, and they've been extremely good again this year. I don't think the pedestrian passing game that Sam Richardson brings is going to be able to do anything against this Baylor defense, and it almost doesn't matter who's playing defense against Baylor at this point in a season, briles is going to having them scoring in bunches. If I was going to bet on Iowa State, I think I would need more like 35 points, and even them I'd be nervous. They scored 71 points and had 700+ yard against the Clones last year by the way.
 
16. @Nebraska -22 v Illinois: Tim Beckman is 1-9 ATS at Illinois in road games. They simply cannot function on the road anywhere but Happy Valley, PA. There's more to the story in this case though. To illustrate this play, I'll explain a truth of football: In order to stop a running game, you need to have defensive lineman who require 2 people to block them. If you have that, it leaves some people unblocked to make the play. Illinois, although improving, does not have any of these kinds of people currently on their roster. In fact, they don't have any defensive lineman that can win a one on one battle, much less require help. As a result, Illinois linebackers are typically stuck to blockers like glue, and their secondary guys, like 95% of all secondary guys in college football, can't tackle. Enter Ameer Abdullah, a legit elite running back who breaks tackles and hits holes hard. This is not a good matchup for the Illini. I'll set the over under for Abdullah's yards at about 225. Offensively, I like the Illini's personnel and scheme, but Wes Lunt is mistake prone, so you'll probably see a few demoralizing turnovers and at least 1 defensive score for the Huskers. Illinois also can't run, so Nebraska will be able to put the heat on Lunt when he fades back. It all adds up to a sizable spread not looking all that sizable. I'll say this one ends up somewhere around 48-16.
 
Two more that I haven't pulled the trigger on are CMU +13.5 @ Toledo and Syracuse +9 v Notre Dame. Wondering what everyone thinks on those.

CMU is coming off a couple of terrible performances, but they get their two best players back this week in RB Rawls and WR Titus Davis. Toledo has been terrible on defense, but they've also faced tougher competition than CMU has. When I saw that ball state moved the ball on Toledo, I was pretty sold that the Rocket defense is highly succeptible, so I think CMU has some success here with the added punch on offense.

As for Syracuse, they were snakebitten last week and played better than the result. (589 yards, outgained Maryland by 250+) They can run the ball and they've played mostly good defense. Frankly, I'm still not sold on ND's offense, and they have Stanford on deck next week. I can totally see Syracuse hanging around, but Hunt is so mistake prone that I'm afraid of defensive scores. (I'm still in the fetal position from that ASU/UCLA game). Might pull the trigger on those 2. Also thinking about Oregon State late night.
 
Clemson shouldn't have a let down game. 5-star true freshman making his debut at night. I'll be there so I'll be a little extra loud for ya. I think Clemson plays well and scores 50ish. The Clemson DL should abuse the UNC OL. As long as Williams doesn't pick up a ton on broken plays you should be good

I'm on Cuse but I hit it earlier at 12.5. There have been some huge overreactions here as Cuse beat maryland everywhere but on the scoreboard and that Michigan win doesn't look quite as great for the Domers. I think its a TD game and wouldnt be surprised if Cuse won SU
 
Thanks Dwight! Yeah....unfortunately I was holding a Cuse ticket last week. Might as well not abandon them now.
 
Bronx, always appreciate your writeups. You were the only one I noticed discussing ncstate game. Im opposite. I think Wolfpack are soft. Their OL should be whipped and their back end is not good. I dont agree on your comments about Clemson game. Clemson qb is very, very good. FSU gutted it out without their best player against a team with strong lines. They know that recent history has been poor against this team, as its generally let down spot. FSU wants to get back in the groove, public dog, I think Seminoles crush. Going big other way. GL with the rest of your games.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Bronx, always appreciate your writeups. You were the only one I noticed discussing ncstate game. Im opposite. I think Wolfpack are soft. Their OL should be whipped and their back end is not good. I dont agree on your comments about Clemson game. Clemson qb is very, very good. FSU gutted it out without their best player against a team with strong lines. They know that recent history has been poor against this team, as its generally let down spot. FSU wants to get back in the groove, public dog, I think Seminoles crush. Going big other way. GL with the rest of your games.
Click to expand...

I can understand what you're saying, but what comments are you disagreeing with? I didn't think I disaparaged Clemson.
 
Ha...I had missed copying this one in the other day. Just for the record. Ended up 7-7-2. Some bad pushes, (Why was Ole Miss still throwing up 14 with a minute left?) but overall very mediocre handicapping. (Can't leave this one out, because it was one of the few cogent thoughts I had...)


6. Minnesota +13 @ MIchigan: OK, I get the idea that Minnesota can't throw the ball, and I know that so far this year, Michigan has done a nice job in stopping the run, ranking 9th in the country. I also know of the struggles Minnesota has had against Michigan over the years. Having said all that, it's not going to be a walk in the park for Michigan to move the ball consistently on Minnesota, a well coached team on both sides of the ball that hasn't given up anything through the air so far. I just can't see the bedwetting spectacle that is today's Michigan football program being capable of laying the wood to any competent team. Also, as far as Michigan being able to stop Minnesota, it certainly appears that it's a strong possibility, but sometimes the numbers on the field don't even matter, and it's just the karma hanging over a football team that matters most. Consider: Michigan didn't allow even 300 yards to either Utah or Notre Dame, yet still found a way to lose by 31 to one and by 16 at home to the other, so forgive me if I'm skeptical that they'll be able to cover 2 TDs in this one.
 
Looks like you had a great weekend. Terrific call on NC State. Even with late opportunity to possibly cover, FSU was not the right side at all with that D. I do think NC State qb is a winner with awesome intangibles. On comment above, I guess I was thinking that Clemson didnt have that much success at FSU w/o their best player (so not much exposed), yet I think Clemson is a very good team. Either way you found a strong play. Congrats.

Nice to see Matty Mauk be a gamer too.
 
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