Week 5 Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, week 4 was a mixed bag with a final tally of 8-6. It brings the total posted record to 29-23-2. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but at least a positive number. (About 56%). We'll see what happens this week. Apologies for my absence on the site all week. Work has been impossible lately. I'll be updating as I get time today and tonight.

Minnesota +4.5 LOSS
Pittsburgh +4 WIN
West Virginia +7 LOSS
Iowa +6.5 WIN
NC State -4 LOSS
Houston -6.5 WIN
Alabama +1.5 WIN
Air Force +5 LOSS
Boston College +7 WIN
Georgia Tech -6.5 LOSS
Indiana +23 WIN
Washington State +17.5 WIN
Kansas St +7 WIN
Florida +7 WIN
Arkansas +7 WIN
Arizona State +13.5 WIN





1. Minnesota +4.5 @Northwestern: I mentioned last week that under our pal Fitzy, the Cats were 5-22 ATS as a home favorite in his tenure if you took out the 2012 fluke season in which the Northwestern was 5-0 in that role. Well, after last week, we move that number to 5-23 as Ball State covered easily. So far this year, Minnesota has not looked great on offense by any means, but they were in a favorite role when they've struggled, and they are back in their comfort zone as a road dog this week. Also, in the past 2 seasons, since Jerry Kill has gotten his footing at Minnesota, the Gophers have gone 6-2 ATS as road dogs and 11-4 as a dog overall. Both of these defenses have been good this year, so this figures to be a low scoring affair in which points will be valuable. I actually see the biggest mismatch in the passing game when Northwestern has the ball, as the Gophers are ranked 16th in passer rating against, while the Cats are 111th in passer rating. Keep in mind that those numbers for Minny include a game with TCU, the 3rd ranked passing offense in the country. The Gophers also have covered the last 7 in Evanston. Everything is telling us to take the points in this one.
 
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2. Pittsburgh +4 @ Virginia Tech: When I first looked at this line, I figured Pitt would be a more significant dog than this, but the more I look at this game, I think the linesmakers have a reason for where they're setting this one. Although Pitt has played some weak offenses, their defense has been very good, ranking 7th in overall yards per play and 9th in rushing and passer rating against. Although they haven't run the ball well, that's still their MO, and VT is ranked 121st in rushing defense. Pitt showed me something a couple weeks ago when they went into Iowa City and had a great shot for the outright upset agaisnt what appears to be a pretty solid Iowa squad. I like new HC Pat Narduzzi quite a bit, and I think he's got the edge over a fading Frank Beamer. VT is coming off a disheartening loss in the rain at East Carolina, and they just lost All American corner Kendall Fuller for the year after losing two other important pieces on their defense the week prior. I'd rather they went back to Chad Voytik rather than Nathan Peterman at QB, but I can't be picky. Pitt's got a great shot at the outright in my opinion.
 
These are two of the toughest games to pick, IMO.As a dog lover, I approve of your decisions. GL
 
took both early on at a little better numbers but I don't think it matters
 
3. West Virginia +7(slight buy) @ Oklahoma: So far Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield has looked pretty good in former ECU OC Lincoln Riley's offense, but he'll be facing the best pass defense in the country so far this week in the Mountaineers. having said that, the Mounties have not really faced anyone the caliber of Oklahoma's passing game, but good Lord have they been impressive. They humiliated a very solid offense in Georgia Southern, although the Eagles were without their starting QB, and they held Maryland to 14/37 passing with 5 picks. This will certainly be the top defense that Oklahoma has seen this year. Offensively, Skyler Howard has looked very good, and the Eers have a good 2 headed monster attack at RB. OU's defense can make plays, but they are susceptible to giving up big yardage, as Tulsa proved 2 weeks ago. I like this one to stay close with WV having a nice chance at the outright.
 
4. Iowa +6.5 @Wisconsin: You could buy it, but I found it at (-125) so I laid off. As I've often said, I am salaciously attracted to defensive teams in defensive games in which I can gobble up some points. Iowa has looked pretty good thus far this year, and with their prowess at stopping the run combined with Corey Clement's season long injury issues, I think the Hawkeyes are the right side. Iowa is ranked no worse than 22nd in any defensive statistical category, and the Badgers have not yet really established themselves as the killers they were in Bielema's tenure. I don't show that Wisconsin has any real statistical edge in any category, so I'll take the points in what appears to be a complete tossup at this juncture.
 
5. @NC State -4 v Louisville: NC State has been on a roll lately, dating back to last year. They've covered 7 games in a row, and in that span they've outgained heir foes by an average of 239 yards per game. Now their schedule has certainly not been a murderer's row, but they've gone on the road and taken care of business. Dave Doeren is in his 3rd year at the helm in Raleigh, and as many have expected, he's got the Wolfpack on the right track. Louisville comes in at 1-3 having played a brutal schedule, but they are still not firing on all cylinders, and their defense has not been as strong as most expected. An early season neutral site loss to Auburn was excusable at the time, but now looks a tad egregious. Offensively, they can't run the ball to save their lives(109th), and although Bobby Petrino has finally settled on a QB (Lamar Jackson), that QB is only passing for 123 yards per game, and sports a 2/4 ratio. NC State is getting a ton of questions about their weak schedule, so they'll definitely be looking to make a statement in their first hoem conference game of the year to prove the doubters wrong. The Wolfpack hung tough with a much stronger Louisville outfit on the road last year, getting outgained only by a handful of yards, and they have everyone back of consequence from last year, most notably QB Jacoby Brissett who has looked good enough recently to start showing up on some NFL draft boards. Now they have the Cardinals in their house with a freshman QB making his first road start. The short price is due to the Wolfpack's weak schedule, but I think they are for real on both sides of the ball, and they'll prove it against a now-rebuilding Louisville squad.
 
6. Alabama +1.5 @Georgia: The last time Alabama was a lined as an underdog in a regular season game was in 2008 in their last trip to Athens, in which they took a 31-0 lead into halftime. In many cases, the teams who aren't used to the underdog role typically do very well when they become the hunter rather than the hunted. The Tide is already behind the 8 ball in the SEC with a loss. Although I would welcome it, I just can't see Alabama losing their second conference game. Alabama's defense is top notch, having stopped everyone they've faced on the ground. You can bet that Saban will make it so that QB Greyson Lambert is under tons of pressure. I'm sure Lambert can complete with defenses like South Carolina's, but this is an entirely different story. On the offensive side, I think the Tide will be able to run on the Dawgs. Georgia has struggled in spots like these. Bama as the hunter?? Ok, sign me up.


​
 
I like your NC St, Iowa, and Bama picks and see them the same way you do, Knux.

W Virginia hasn't convinced me they are reliable on the road since they joined the conference. Especially against teams that can run the ball. Perine shredded them last year at Morgantown and they didn't have the manpower to stand up in the trenches. They were impressive against Maryland so they may have the defense this year to stand up to Oklahoma.

I notice most handicappers and touts are going the same way you are so I may be missing something.
 
great as usual

on some and against some(rare for me)

don't let work bog you down bro........


cool fact about Fishers...


Other famous residents of Fishers include former Indiana Pacers players Reggie Miller, Austin Croshere, and Dahntay Jones,[SUP][70][/SUP] Zach Randolph of the Memphis Grizzlies, former Atlanta Hawksplayer Alan Henderson, NFL player Rosevelt Colvin formerly of the Houston Texans, Chicago Bearsand New England Patriots, Joe Reitz of the Indianapolis Colts, Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line coachJohn Teerlinck, former San Diego Padres player Tony Gwynn,[SUP][71][/SUP] professional wrestler Kevin Fertig, and Cleveland Indians pitcher Justin Masterson.
 
@NC State -4 v Louisville:
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Not buying it. NC State has three wins that ended around the number (3-0 ATS by a total of 10 points) plus an easy cover against a USA team that (1) was coming off a road OT win as a big dog all the way out in California and (2) had an instate rivalry game on deck. In other words, they've been as good as expected this year. And they were expected to be considerably worse than UL, as they were last year. My team (Clemson) just played UL, and UL looks the same as last year. I think UL should be favored by 3.
 
M.W. said:
Not buying it. NC State has three wins that ended around the number (3-0 ATS by a total of 10 points) plus an easy cover against a USA team that (1) was coming off a road OT win as a big dog all the way out in California and (2) had an instate rivalry game on deck. In other words, they've been as good as expected this year. And they were expected to be considerably worse than UL, as they were last year. My team (Clemson) just played UL, and UL looks the same as last year. I think UL should be favored by 3.
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Don't disagree with anything you said here, and I'm definitely cognizant of the difference in the two schedules. I think this Louisville defense is a lot worse than previously thought on the defensive end...I think NC State will be able to run on them. Also when we talk about last year, NC State played them very close statistically in Papa Johns stadium and that team had an offense that was humming along. Now they go on the road with a Freshman QB. Also like Brissett quite a bit. I get what you're saying, but I think Doeren still has a lot he feels they have to prove. Of course, the weather make all of this a moot point..
 
twinkie13 said:
great as usual

on some and against some(rare for me)

don't let work bog you down bro........


cool fact about Fishers...


Other famous residents of Fishers include former Indiana Pacers players Reggie Miller, Austin Croshere, and Dahntay Jones,[SUP][70][/SUP]Zach Randolph of the Memphis Grizzlies, former Atlanta Hawksplayer Alan Henderson, NFL player Rosevelt Colvin formerly of the Houston Texans, Chicago Bearsand New England Patriots, Joe Reitz of the Indianapolis Colts, Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line coachJohn Teerlinck, former San Diego Padres player Tony Gwynn,[SUP][71][/SUP] professional wrestler Kevin Fertig, and Cleveland Indians pitcher Justin Masterson.
Click to expand...


Thanks Twink. :shake:
 
TahoeLegend said:
I like your NC St, Iowa, and Bama picks and see them the same way you do, Knux.

W Virginia hasn't convinced me they are reliable on the road since they joined the conference. Especially against teams that can run the ball. Perine shredded them last year at Morgantown and they didn't have the manpower to stand up in the trenches. They were impressive against Maryland so they may have the defense this year to stand up to Oklahoma.

I notice most handicappers and touts are going the same way you are so I may be missing something.
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It's never comfortable to go against Oklahoma in Norman, but if they run all over the Mountaineers, it'll be something new because they haven't really run it well this year so far. Only 3.0 per rush against Akron, Perine was 23-78 against Tennessee...even their rushing numbers against Tulsa were skewed a bit by Mayfield's scrambles. I think they'll have to throw effectively to really lay it on in this one, and even though WV has played questionable competition, you can't argue with the way they've played pass defense. I also think Holgorson will find a way to get some points on the board too.
 
7. Houston -6.5 @Tulsa: I was originally going to take a pass on this one because these are two of my favorite teams(and coaches) so far this year, but the more I look at this one, the more I just can't fathom how Tulsa will ever force a punt in this game. Philip Montgomery is going to do a great job at Tulsa, and he's off to a great start, but he hasn't had time to address his defense. They are near the bottom defensively in just about every category, most notably in yards per play and passing yards per attempt. I know there's a game against Oklahoma in there, so that's excusable, but New Mexico and Florida Atlantic? Houston comes in ranked 5th in passer rating, and can also run the ball if necessary with Kenneth Farrow and any number of other guys Tom Hermann has at his disposal. Obviously, Tulsa's passing attack is lethal, but they probably won't be able to run it on Houston, and the Cougars are well coached and very competent on the defensive side. This is likely to be a high scoring game, but the Cougs will get some stops, just like FAU and New Mexico did, but I don't see the Hurricane having any success at all on defense. Certainly not enough to stay within one score.
 
Thanks Press...

8. Air Force +6 @ Navy: These two teams are very similar, so much so that I would call this one a dead heat statistically. The dog is 12-4 ATS in this series, and I like Air Force's defense a bit more than I like Navy's.By now, everyone knows the drill...adept rushing team getting a noteworthy amount of points is a definite play on candidate. Not a ton of analysis here, I'm just motivated to take 6 points in a game where both teams are evenly matched and there is more than enough motivation for the dog.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Houston -6.5 @Tulsa: I was originally going to take a pass on this one because these are two of my favorite teams(and coaches) so far this year, but the more I look at this one, the more I just can't fathom how Tulsa will ever force a punt in this game. Philip Montgomery is going to do a great job at Tulsa, and he's off to a great start, but he hasn't had time to address his defense. They are near the bottom defensively in just about every category, most notably in yards per play and passing yards per attempt. I know there's a game against Oklahoma in there, so that's excusable, but New Mexico and Florida Atlantic? Houston comes in ranked 5th in passer rating, and can also run the ball if necessary with Kenneth Farrow and any number of other guys Tom Hermann has at his disposal. Obviously, Tulsa's passing attack is lethal, but they probably won't be able to run it on Houston, and the Cougars are well coached and very competent on the defensive side. This is likely to be a high scoring game, but the Cougs will get some stops, just like FAU and New Mexico did, but I don't see the Hurricane having any success at all on defense. Certainly not enough to stay within one score.
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Doesn't hurt to add that UH is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 on the road.

GL with your plays.
 
9. Boston College +7 @Duke: I hate to go back to the well on a Duke game again, as I am on a two game losing streak trying to figure out the Blue Devils, but I don't know how this game gets to be more than a 7 point game either way considering these two defenses. BC is guilty of playing one of the worst openings of a schedule that the college football world has ever seen, scheduling not one but two FCS schools in the first two weeks. (Maine and Howard). The defensive performances in the box scores of those two games were almost comical (91 total yards for Maine and 11(!!!) for Howard), but they followed those two games up with two more dominating efforts. Florida State came into Chestnut Hill and was held to 217 total yards and NIU was held to 153 yards and 2.73 yards per play. Now, Duke's defense is no joke either as they are ranked #3 in ypp in the country and BC's offense(especially without Jon Hillman)will struggle all day in the quagmire too, but I just can't see how Duke is going to score enough points(at least on offense) to cover a full TD. I would have figured this one would be a 3 point spread at the most. If BC can figure out a way to get 7-10 points on the board, I would think that they'd be in good shape.
 
10 @Georgia Tech -6.5 v North Carolina: Another back to the well game here,but I think Georgia Tech is due for a solid game here. One of their only two losses last year came to UNC in Chapel Hill, so the Jackets will be looking to avenge that defeat as well as get themselves back on track after two poor performances on the road. Despite their troubles, Tech is still statistically pretty good on th defensive side, ranked 46th in yards per play and 15th in the country against the pass, having already picked off 5 passes. That's a bad sign for Tar Heel QB Marquise Williams, who I still haven't forgiven for completely blowing the opener against South Carolina with his atrocious play throughout the game and in the red zone. He's out of his comfort zone again as UNC will make their first true road trip of the season. They're also ranked 100th against the run, and that was against teams without overly strong running games (Illinois, South Carolina) and even Delaware gashed them for 279 yards last week. I see things taking about face for both of these teams as the venues change. Tech gets back on track on the home turf.
 
11. @Indiana +23 v Ohio State: Believe it or not, the Hoosiers have covered 4 in a row in this series, including a dangerously close game for the Buckeyes last year in Columbus where the Hoosiers were up in the 4th quarter in a game in which they were dogged by 36 points. This year the Hoosiers are 4-0 and excited despite their resume making them arguably the most fraudulent 4-0 team in years. having said all that, they've beaten the teams they should have beaten, and have actually not been terrible on defense, which is a departure from previous years. They are actually ranked 29th against the run. Now, I'm not going to say that this qualifies them as a great candidate to shut down Ezekiel Elliott, but at least it shows that they can compete in that area. Offensively, they've shown that they can put points on the board, and Ohio State is anything but a well oiled machine offensively right now, as Cardale Jones probably needs the games to start mattering to get going. They are ranked 65th in the country in passing offense, and a only 2 weeks removed from a 298 yard offensive performance against Northern Illinois. Even if this gets out of hand, IU has some backdoor potential.
 
12. Washington St +17.5 @ Cal: I was against Cal last week in Washington, and frankly if the same situation presented itself again, I'd probably fade Cal this week too. They were lucky with a +3 turnover margin and at least a couple dropped TD passes on wheel routes by Washington, but they got the win. Now they come home as a significant favorite against Washington State, a team certainly capable of piling up the yards. This is the kind of game that Mike Leach has feasted on in recent years. He's 9-4 as a double digit conference road dog, and has won 4 of those outright. Cal is ripe for a letdown after some nice wins, and the Cougs are off a bye. I just think it's a nice situation for the Cougars and the back door is always open with cal's defense and the Wazzou offense.
 
13. Kansas State +7 @ Oklahoma State: It will be a rare event when I am not on Kansas State in a Big 12 conference game as Bill Snyder is 37-14 ATS in conference since his return to sidelines. Even if those numbers weren't on our side, I'd be on the Wildcats anyway. K State has not played a herculean schedule thus far, but they are ranked 8th in the country in rushing ypc on defense, which includes a game against Kenneth Dixon of Louisiana Tech, one of the top RBs in the country. OSU is struggling to run the ball, and I don't know if anyone's watched Mason Rudolph all that closely, but I have not been impressed with him. Central Michigan made him look very ordinary in week 1, and Texas, who had previously been gashed in the passing game, gave him lots of trouble. OSU was extremely fortunate with some timely and questionable penalty calls last week to even get to OT against Texas. On the offensive side, it looks like Coach Snyder has found his most recent Colin Klein clone in Joe Huebner, who has led KSU to some pretty competent passing statistics. I think KSU makes this a game, as usual.
 
14. @Florida +7 v Ole Miss: I know Ole Miss beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but are they good enough to be a TD favorite against non-Muschamp Florida? I really don't think so. Looking at the numbers, Ole Miss does not have a good rushing offense, and Florida stops the run, so if Ole Miss is going to score, they are going to have to throw it all over the field on Florida, and while that might be possible, I don't think it's likely as Florida's secondary is one of the best in the country. I also see a lot of improvement in the Florida offense as Will Grier continues to improve. They are actually 35th in th country in passing offense, and that comes after two SEC games against pretty good defenses. To me, this looks like a fight right down to the wire, so I'll obviously take the 7 with the home team.
 
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16. Arkansas +7(-120) @ Tennessee: Both of these teams are off gut wrenching losses, and Tennessee has looked good at times in all of their games, but the results just never seem to materialize. What exactly have they done to be a 7 point favorite against a team like Arkansas? I know that Arkansas is 1-3, but their offense continues to move the ball and they have as much SEC talent as just about everyone. Bielema and company are pissed off and certainly aren't afraid of the Vols. Butch Jones has show that although he can build a program, he is going to get outcoached on Saturday, perhaps even by inanimate objects. This is another game that likely will be influenced by weather and will likely come down to the wire, so give me the TD.
 
17. Arizona State +13.5 @ UCLA: many people looked at Arizona State as a darkhorse contender in the Pac 12 at the beginning of the season, but now that they are 2-2 and coming off a blowout loss at home at USC, everyone is off the bandwagon. This game sets up as a great situation, as ASU couldn't have looked worse last week, while UCLA couldn't have looked better. However, both games featured a ton of turnovers, and UCLA definitely caught a break when QB Anu Solomon went out early with an injury. Statistically, ASU only was outgained by 1 yard for the game and completely stuffed USC's running attack, which is UCLA's major MO. Also remember that ASU QB Mike Bercovici completely torched the UCLA defense for 488 yards and ASU had 627 yards of total offense is a totally misleading final from last year. UCLA also has a date with Stanford on deck, so I think the chances are good for a sub-par effort from the Bruins, especially if they get a "miss" performance from hit or miss freshman QB Josh Rosen. Lots of value on the Sun Devils here, who are 0-4 ATS and well overdue for a cover.
 
BOL today Brass, I'm on a ton of these games and only against you in the UNC-GT game. I got +12.5 there so pretty easy to see a situation where we both win.
 
The public is all over this, and i haven't payed it as a result, but has anyone seen this Oregon/Colorado line??

Some context: Colorado has been a conference dog of less than 10 only twice since they entered the PAC 12, and they're catching only 7 against Oregon. Shit, Oregon has been favored by less than 10 only 8 times since 2010(56 conf games), and they've almost all been against USC and Stanford. Really hard to pass up that value...
 
Holy "fly or die" together...I am on NW, NC State (looks like we are in very small minority from what i can tell), Houston, Wazzu (love this one), GTech, West Virgina.

GL my man.....great stuff as always
 
BOL Brass - On WVU and Alabama and leaned towards Iowa, KST and Houston (but missed number there earlier in week). Great writeups as always, and appreciate your threads.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Don't disagree with anything you said here, and I'm definitely cognizant of the difference in the two schedules. I think this Louisville defense is a lot worse than previously thought on the defensive end...I think NC State will be able to run on them. Also when we talk about last year, NC State played them very close statistically in Papa Johns stadium and that team had an offense that was humming along. Now they go on the road with a Freshman QB. Also like Brissett quite a bit. I get what you're saying, but I think Doeren still has a lot he feels they have to prove. Of course, the weather make all of this a moot point..
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It was close statistically last year, but State got 172 yards on 23 plays while trailing by two scores in the last 15:30 of the game. The rest of the game, State was 40-179 from the LOS.
 
M.W. said:
It was close statistically last year, but State got 172 yards on 23 plays while trailing by two scores in the last 15:30 of the game. The rest of the game, State was 40-179 from the LOS.
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You were on it MW. Good call by you.
 
Looks like you were on the right side of most of them so far - should be a good day for you.
 
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M.W. said:
Looks like you were on the right side of most of them so far - should be a good day for you.
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Ended up 11-5. I forced the GT bet a bit. Looked good for awhile, but alas.......I think I'll avoid them unless they are catching a bundle in the future. Too difficult to peg them. I've proven that.
 
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Timh said:
BOL Brass - On WVU and Alabama and leaned towards Iowa, KST and Houston (but missed number there earlier in week). Great writeups as always, and appreciate your threads.
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Thanks as always for kind words Timmy. Condolences to you for the Terps...especially when Rowe is on the field.
 
you made some great calls this past week. Having watched every play of the WVU at OU game, I am pretty sure your investment in WVU was a good one too ..just didn't pan out. Your DD dogs were just pure gold this past weekend..... easy cashes. Thanks for all you do here. good luck next week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Ended up 11-6. I forced the GT bet a bit. Looked good for awhile, but alas.......I think I'll avoid them unless they are catching a bundle in the future. Too difficult to peg them. I've proven that.
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THIS is the week for GT, likely catching more than a score on the road against Clemson off a big win. Paul Johnson getting big points = $$$
 
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