I like Illinois. Feel like they are better positioned this year for this kind of game and I think Wisconsin OL and D might be down from last year. The D is the key thing because last year Illinois really couldn't do anything on O, and again that would be my biggest concern. However, I look back at the week 1 Illinois State game and despite being shutout, they were able to move it better than I thought they would (4 of their first 6 drives advanced into UW territory). And Washington State had some success moving on this Wisconsin D as well. It would still be difficult for this Illinois O to do it, but I think they could. The line at 7 hosting this game also says a lot. Last year it was 11 at Illinois and Badgers won that one 24-0. Coming back home you'd expect it to be higher, but I think the spread reflects some improvement on the Illinois side and some slippage perhaps on the Wisconsin side.
I was encouraged by what I saw out of the WF O last week. While I believed they could win that game, I did not expect them to be able to run and pass, or score as well as they did vs Clemson. I also did not expect the Clemson O to have so much success, especially passing. So the WF pass D/secondary personnel is a concern as is the taxing nature of the Clemson loss. But I would think WF could compete here.
Don't know much about NC State, although I'm still not afraid to go against Clemson. This has to be their game of the year. I'm just not sure NC State is as good as anyone might've thought they were going to be?
Kind of a little crazy, but I'm not scared of Georgia Tech after the way they played last week. Don't know what the coach firing effect will be.
Michigan State just on the value aspect of getting over a TD now. Maryland finally plays one good game vs a big boy in the B1G and now they get all the respect they failed to earn before? Lia and was it Jarrett were both banged up vs Michigan. Nobody loved this Maryland D before the Michigan game, guess everyone just hates the State O, which I understand. I'm just not sure Maryland should be lined at this level based off of what we have seen this year so far in total and historically.
Virginia Tech simply because UNC's D I believe will make any offense look great. WVU is flat out a better team up and down compared to UNC and VT played pretty tough vs them. I don't like backing Wells at QB because of his turnover potential, but I'm not going to avoid them all together because of it. VT D won this game last year and they could do it again.
South Florida showed something vs Florida, what that was or why it happened exactly I don't know. I do know that I felt they would be better this year, I know they thought they would be better than BYU just buzz sawed them. I have yet to really explore the loss at Louisville last week, but I have seen a lot of ECU football through the years and this year and know they can't be trusted confidently to take care of business - and they could be a little fragile leaving home for the first time after a really really tough loss, and a physically tough loss to Navy in OT last week.
Shorter dog than I normally ML, but SMU I think is better than UCF. UCF's game at FAU says otherwise, but UCF's games vs LV and GT might confirm such. Those are P5 teams, so I get that. SMU also has some failures vs their P5 opponents, both better than what UCF played and both just 7 point losses.
SMU outgained Maryland and were only slightly outgained by TCU last week (11 yards). I don't really think this UCF team is up to standards or the hype and I think SMU could end up winning the American.
If O'Connell is out, I might actually like Purdue. A little reverse psychology. But my thinking is that Purdue needs something different, and Brohm needs something different in this game. Burton's running might be an x factor to boost Purdue. I probably will not play this as a ML as I would rather than the 11 pts, which is pretty high - and likely a reaction from last week's FAU result for Purdue as well as Minnesota's big win vs MSU. Definitely a sell high, buy low opportunity.
Tons of points for Navy to be getting. Air Force is very strong this year and Navy O is not, again. Navy D is still capable however. Always an absolutely enormous game for either team in the first leg of the CIC trophy round robin. Navy won a really gutty and draining game at ECU last week, so normally would be tough to get up maybe, but there won't be any problem given the opponent this week. The line and the odds of a ML on them make this interesting, I would suspect Air Force wins, but seems like a reasonable chance to take given the rivalry and the generous points/odds. The question lately with the Mids is always, how do they score and can they score enough? That is exactly why they lost last year even though their D played as well as they possibly could have.
Kansas has done it twice already, not sure why they can't do it again? Some talk of the disrespect as they are not ranked nationally yet in the top 25. KU D needs to tighten up however.
Temple is building their confidence, but their recent opponents are as bad as they come. Memphis out for revenge for last year's upset in Philly. Can't really see Temple winning as far as putting my money on them, but I do wonder if they can keep it close for the 1H perhaps.
Tulsa is always a great dog and Cincy seems pretty inconsistent this year. Bad 1H vs Ark and MiaO. Bad 2H vs Indiana. A lot of points no matter who the QB ends up being for Tulsa. Tulsa has played better Cincy teams within 1 score the last two meetings as well and actually is 3-0 ATS vs them 2019-2021.
Oregon State would have a chance if they don't have the USC hangover. Utah is very strong, but I don't think this to be a game that Utah should just push the Beavs around. And vs San Diego State and vs Arizona State, Utah just slowly and to their credit methodically pulls away and smothered some poor offenses and bad teams in the process. Oregon State offers quite a bit more challenge than those two. This Oregon State D has come a long way since Smith got hired. The last two years have been one score games either way between these two.
New Mexico State won last week as a single digit home favorite and now they get posted as a DD fav vs one of the worst, if not the worst FBS team going in Florida International. In FIU's favor, this is the weakest team they have played so far and I include Bryant in that comparison. New Mexico State is now expected to cover 2 TDss after beating Hawaii 45-26. Note that NM State only completed 8-of-15 passes for 81y and only outgained Hawaii by 27 yards. FIU is awfully bad, but everyone wants to come out and prove something after losing 73-0, right? Two very bad teams going here, if one bad team beat the other bad team would anyone really be surprised? FIU is down, a lot, but it is only New Mexico State here.
I'm running out of time now...but yes plenty more I could make case for: Kentucky, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Arkansas, Central Michigan, Ohio, ULM, Troy, Rice
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