Week 5 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Iowa State at home. OU's season is down the drain.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
FWIW, this week will mark the 1st time a Lincoln Riley coached team plays an away game after a home loss. However, his teams are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS away games in which his team did not cover ATS the previous week in a home game, 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS in away games in which his team did not cover ATS the previous week overall.
opcorn:
opcorn:Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
ECU
Missouri
SMU
Texas Tech
Charlotte
Air Force
UL Monroe
Iowa St
Auburn
ULM the only big dog.....the rest are reasonable enough that I wouldn't be surprised......
Missouri
SMU
Texas Tech
Charlotte
Air Force
UL Monroe
Iowa St
Auburn
ULM the only big dog.....the rest are reasonable enough that I wouldn't be surprised......
randall_mack
Active Member
West Va
SMU
Tx Tech
Aubie
SMU
Tx Tech
Aubie
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I've not really followed much of Okie State football but I'm thinking, after capping Mike Gundy a couple weeks in a row now, that it's like riding a great roller coaster at the county fair! Very interesting bit of stats here.....Mike Gundy coached teams are 11-4 SU @ teams off a losing season and the week following a home win and ATS cover. But the counter-intuitive thing is, as I lower the previous year's record of the opponent, Mike Gundy's Win % gets worse!!
Win Differential <0 = 73.3% (pic 1)
Win Differential <-1 = 63.6% (pic 2)
Win Differential <-2 = 62.5% (pic 3)
Win Differential <-4 = 50% (pic 4)
Clearly Mike Gundy has had some issues in the past with motivating his team @ weak opponents the week after a big win at home. I'm not thinking Kansas can pull it off for the whole game but they can prolly hang for a qtr or half this Saturday and they'll prolly have +300 or +400 odds.
opcorn:
Win Differential <0 = 73.3% (pic 1)
Win Differential <-1 = 63.6% (pic 2)
Win Differential <-2 = 62.5% (pic 3)
Win Differential <-4 = 50% (pic 4)
Clearly Mike Gundy has had some issues in the past with motivating his team @ weak opponents the week after a big win at home. I'm not thinking Kansas can pull it off for the whole game but they can prolly hang for a qtr or half this Saturday and they'll prolly have +300 or +400 odds.
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Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Iowa State, more.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Lane Kiffin coached teams are 8-0 ATS in away games coming off a home loss. Mark Stoops coached teams are 0-4 ATS in home games off a road loss where they did not cover and they are facing an opponent coming off a losing season. I drank the koolaid with my Cats and all the hype heading into the Auburn game but Fuck 'em! I might as well make money off them if they're going to make my sports life so miserable!
opcorn:
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s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
West Virginia
Oklahoma State/Gundy called a conservative game to protect Illingsworth, which is fine...OSU looks to have the best D in the BigXll and strong running backs, so it works. Was a game that WVU was in more than a 14 point loss implies I think, or more than the 20-7 HT score indicates. WVU outgained OSU 270-213 in the 1st H and 353-342 for the game. WVU's problem was their drives stalled inside the 30s (SOD at O29 after bad FG snap/hold, FGs from O13 and O09). OSU did have a strip sack 56y D TD. WVU had 12 penalties for 106y (several false starts and five different 15y penalties). Last year WVU was the 4th least penalized team in the league, so hopefully that isn't a trait this time is going to have. OSU D did get 5 sacks (2 of which were on the final 3 plays of the game although OSU had consistent pressure throughout 9 QBH) but the sacks skews the rushing numbers - WVU RB Brown did run for 104 on 26att.
Baylor was way better than Kansas despite what the box score showed (KU only outgained by 24y but that is because 135 of KU's yards were on their final 2 drives). That game was 17-7 HT, TWO 2nd H KO ret TDs helped boost the final to 47-14. I think a better team fares better vs the reloading Baylor D. Assuming WVU is that better team, I think their improvement will bear out. Looks like Arizona LB transfer Tony Fields is having a "field day" on this D (19 tackles and INT in two games). Another transfer is second on the team in tackles...S Alzona Addae. Last year's tkl leader is currently 4th. So two big time pickups by WV there (plus another Arz trans in Scottie Young is on the hand to further boost the S position with 30 career starts although he hasn't played much yet). When you look at WVU D and who they lost or who is coming back, there are some new comers stepping in making an impact. Plus you still have the Stills brothers on the DL.
Pretty much comes down to how much you trust Doege at QB and his pass protection. Think they have some good skill and an underrated D.
Oklahoma State/Gundy called a conservative game to protect Illingsworth, which is fine...OSU looks to have the best D in the BigXll and strong running backs, so it works. Was a game that WVU was in more than a 14 point loss implies I think, or more than the 20-7 HT score indicates. WVU outgained OSU 270-213 in the 1st H and 353-342 for the game. WVU's problem was their drives stalled inside the 30s (SOD at O29 after bad FG snap/hold, FGs from O13 and O09). OSU did have a strip sack 56y D TD. WVU had 12 penalties for 106y (several false starts and five different 15y penalties). Last year WVU was the 4th least penalized team in the league, so hopefully that isn't a trait this time is going to have. OSU D did get 5 sacks (2 of which were on the final 3 plays of the game although OSU had consistent pressure throughout 9 QBH) but the sacks skews the rushing numbers - WVU RB Brown did run for 104 on 26att.
Baylor was way better than Kansas despite what the box score showed (KU only outgained by 24y but that is because 135 of KU's yards were on their final 2 drives). That game was 17-7 HT, TWO 2nd H KO ret TDs helped boost the final to 47-14. I think a better team fares better vs the reloading Baylor D. Assuming WVU is that better team, I think their improvement will bear out. Looks like Arizona LB transfer Tony Fields is having a "field day" on this D (19 tackles and INT in two games). Another transfer is second on the team in tackles...S Alzona Addae. Last year's tkl leader is currently 4th. So two big time pickups by WV there (plus another Arz trans in Scottie Young is on the hand to further boost the S position with 30 career starts although he hasn't played much yet). When you look at WVU D and who they lost or who is coming back, there are some new comers stepping in making an impact. Plus you still have the Stills brothers on the DL.
Pretty much comes down to how much you trust Doege at QB and his pass protection. Think they have some good skill and an underrated D.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm not sure how much I like ISU to win, but looking at the rushing numbers...OU only ran for 3.54 ypc vs Mizzou St and 3.71 vs Kansas St. ISU limited ULL rushing's game and a little skewed by sacks vs TCU, but Clones did well bottling up TCU run game too outside of a couple runs.
If OU can't have balance and put it all on Rattler, I think we saw how Rattler does under pressure (both physical and mental) on OU's final 3 possessions of the K St game.
Not hard to see OU O having some issues. Question I have is what Brock Purdy shows up?
If OU can't have balance and put it all on Rattler, I think we saw how Rattler does under pressure (both physical and mental) on OU's final 3 possessions of the K St game.
Not hard to see OU O having some issues. Question I have is what Brock Purdy shows up?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I was thinking about Boston College, I'm just not sure what to make of them yet.
I think I saw their potential vs Duke, but then saw them flat vs Texas State. Texas State pretty much outplayed them.
I do like the idea of backing a team I think has good potential off a poor performance, I like that emotionally in terms of how the team approaches their next game knowing they have to be better, kinda expecting the A game off the B game. That same mentality can be applied to UNC as well, poor performance vs Syracuse, they need to up their game.
It's probably going to be hard for a team like BC to play consistent off the bat. UNC should be able to do that, I still just have memories of the 1st H vs Syracuse.
I think I saw their potential vs Duke, but then saw them flat vs Texas State. Texas State pretty much outplayed them.
I do like the idea of backing a team I think has good potential off a poor performance, I like that emotionally in terms of how the team approaches their next game knowing they have to be better, kinda expecting the A game off the B game. That same mentality can be applied to UNC as well, poor performance vs Syracuse, they need to up their game.
It's probably going to be hard for a team like BC to play consistent off the bat. UNC should be able to do that, I still just have memories of the 1st H vs Syracuse.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
If I'm OU I'm more concerned about the defense.....vs,. K State, guys running free all day, atrocious tackling, and more guys running free all day. Give me a good Purdy in this game on Saturday and it's going to be dicey for OU.
Squirrel
Well-Known Member
Ones that jump out to me as possibilities this week:
Coastal, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee St (really don't like this team at all but WK defense seems very bad), I think TCU has a chance off of the emotional win for Texas since both defenses are swiss cheese, Air Force, and Auburn.
Agree that BCU looked brutal vs. Texas St.
Coastal, Charlotte, Middle Tennessee St (really don't like this team at all but WK defense seems very bad), I think TCU has a chance off of the emotional win for Texas since both defenses are swiss cheese, Air Force, and Auburn.
Agree that BCU looked brutal vs. Texas St.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Those are very nice. Thanks.Lane Kiffin coached teams are 8-0 ATS in away games coming off a home loss. Mark Stoops coached teams are 0-4 ATS in home games off a road loss where they did not cover and they are facing an opponent coming off a losing season. I drank the koolaid with my Cats and all the hype heading into the Auburn game but Fuck 'em! I might as well make money off them if they're going to make my sports life so miserable!
View attachment 50812
View attachment 50811
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Tom Herman is a perfect 8-0 SU but only 2-6 ATS in home games the week after not covering a spread and playing an opponent off a losing season. See pic 2. He is a perfect 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS in those games that are off an Away game. See pic 3. This is the first time, however, in which his team finds itself in this situation coming off an away win. Gary Patterson is 4-3 SU and 4-3 ATS in away games, coming off a home loss in which his team did not cover the spread, and playing an opponent off a winning season. See pic 1. Notice he has won 3 times SU as a 7, 7, and 7.5pt dog in this situation.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Rick Stockstill coached teams are 8-2 SU in home games coming off a road loss in which they covered the spread. See pic 1. His teams are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in those games against teams coming off a winning season the year before. See pic 2. Tyson Helton coached teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in away games. They are 0-1 SU and 0-1 ATS this season. See pick 3.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Flyboys and AU
I'm starting to wonder just to which degree Duke made BC look good.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Is Vandy going to knock off LSU this weekend? My queries into this matchup have me very intrigued. Of course, we all know what happened last weekend to LSU and personally I was expecting them to bounce back this week but, as Lee Corso says, not so fast my friends!!
Consider.....
1) Ed Orgeron is 7-8 SU and 4-11 ATS in road games vs. teams off a losing season. See pic 2. These numbers seem far from dominant in my opinion considering where he has coached. Meanwhile...
2) Derek Mason is 10-12 SU and 12-10 ATS in home games vs. teams off a winning season. See pic 1. These numbers seem not too shabby considering he has spent his career at a place like Vandy. He has been just as good SU vs. winning teams at home than Orgeron has been on the road at losing teams.
3) Consider a Vandy offense scored 38pts last year vs. LSU....might not mean much but Vandy did finish dead last in scoring in the SEC last year but yet they somehow pumped out 38pts vs. the best team in the nation? It might indicate Ed Orgeron has particular trouble vs. Derek Mason....just saying.
4) Lastly...just tryng to gain some context in Vandy's loss last week at Texas A&M. Was it a bad showing by A&M or was it a great showing by Vandy? Consider Jimbo fisher was 29-1 SU and 18-11 ATS in home games vs. losing teams before this game. See pic 3. They were a -30.5 fav but only won by 5. That is better than 25pts Vandy beat the spread vs. A&M. Out of 31 games, only one other time has a team beaten the spread by 25pts vs. Jimbo Fisher...only once! See pic 4. That tells me there is a really great chance this Vandy team is much better than expected......
opcorn:
Consider.....
1) Ed Orgeron is 7-8 SU and 4-11 ATS in road games vs. teams off a losing season. See pic 2. These numbers seem far from dominant in my opinion considering where he has coached. Meanwhile...
2) Derek Mason is 10-12 SU and 12-10 ATS in home games vs. teams off a winning season. See pic 1. These numbers seem not too shabby considering he has spent his career at a place like Vandy. He has been just as good SU vs. winning teams at home than Orgeron has been on the road at losing teams.
3) Consider a Vandy offense scored 38pts last year vs. LSU....might not mean much but Vandy did finish dead last in scoring in the SEC last year but yet they somehow pumped out 38pts vs. the best team in the nation? It might indicate Ed Orgeron has particular trouble vs. Derek Mason....just saying.
4) Lastly...just tryng to gain some context in Vandy's loss last week at Texas A&M. Was it a bad showing by A&M or was it a great showing by Vandy? Consider Jimbo fisher was 29-1 SU and 18-11 ATS in home games vs. losing teams before this game. See pic 3. They were a -30.5 fav but only won by 5. That is better than 25pts Vandy beat the spread vs. A&M. Out of 31 games, only one other time has a team beaten the spread by 25pts vs. Jimbo Fisher...only once! See pic 4. That tells me there is a really great chance this Vandy team is much better than expected......
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JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Now this is what I call a couple of lotto tix boys!! Even if I hit 4 out of 6 then I'm partying like mad deep into tomorrow night!!
3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs....
#1:
Middle Tennessee State +230
Auburn +245
Vanderbilt +575 for 1st Half
South Florida +360 for 1st Quarter
Kansas U +315 for 1st Quarter
TCU +215 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $17,416.34
#2:
Middle Tennessee State +230
Auburn +245
Vanderbilt +800
Kansas U +650 for 1st Half
TCU +265 for 1st Half
South Florida +360 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $41,880.09
BOLTA!
3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs....
#1:
Middle Tennessee State +230
Auburn +245
Vanderbilt +575 for 1st Half
South Florida +360 for 1st Quarter
Kansas U +315 for 1st Quarter
TCU +215 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $17,416.34
#2:
Middle Tennessee State +230
Auburn +245
Vanderbilt +800
Kansas U +650 for 1st Half
TCU +265 for 1st Half
South Florida +360 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $41,880.09
BOLTA!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
the good purdy and isu tends to show up a lot more As dogs than in games like week one where everyone expects them to. I dunno if I can pull trigger or not but I went from liking sooners to having no interest at all in them as the week went on. I feel like ppl are lazily thinking no way they lose 2 in a row.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
in fairness to unc I think cuse defense has shown much better than maybe we thought they were coming into that game.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Agree on Missouri. I will be on them plus the pts and I don't think anyone anywhere would be shocked if Tennessee lost, even as DD fav. Somewhat predictably SCar was in the game with Vols last week and maybe could've even won if not for -2 TOs (SC only outgained by 15y).
Hard to hold much against MU in game one of Drinkowitz and co vs Alabama. Things should get a little more manageable here.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
True and agree on both accounts. The BC-Duke game was misleading, I do still like what I saw BC bring to the table in that game and feel that is closer to their reality than the Texas St game. And Syracuse D fights. But honestly, BC D should be able to be atleast as good if not ultimately better than that, I like the BC personnel in the front 7. The pass D will get stressed today if Howell is back on point.
Then the O for BC, I feel like Jurkovec is a little boom or bust right now. And BC's OL is underperforming in both the run and pass protection. I can understand that, but in terms of this thread and how BC is going to try and compete, both OL and QB will need to be quite a bit better than they have shown to date.
Look at Mizzou TT Over 17.5
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Gary Patterson is 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS in away games coming off a home loss and playing as team coming off a winning season. However, looking at the 1st half scores, he is a perfect 6-0 SU in this situation. I laid off the FG wager because Tom Herman has some nice stats backing his situation at home.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
You know what they say about a fool and his money?? Well, I added 2 more....basically subbed AF for Aubbie. Should make for an exciting day of football!!
:watchingsports:
3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs....
#3:
Air Force +230
Middle Tennessee State +220
Vanderbilt +800
Kansas U +650 for 1st Half
TCU +265 for 1st Half
South Florida +400 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $42,352.16
#4:
Air Force +230
Middle Tennessee State +220
Vanderbilt +575 for 1st Half
South Florida +400 for 1st Quarter
Kansas U +315 for 1st Quarter
TCU +200 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $16,967.66
BOLTA!!
:watchingsports:
3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs....
#3:
Air Force +230
Middle Tennessee State +220
Vanderbilt +800
Kansas U +650 for 1st Half
TCU +265 for 1st Half
South Florida +400 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $42,352.16
#4:
Air Force +230
Middle Tennessee State +220
Vanderbilt +575 for 1st Half
South Florida +400 for 1st Quarter
Kansas U +315 for 1st Quarter
TCU +200 for 1st Quarter
Risking $42.00 (42 parlays at $1.00) To Win $16,967.66
BOLTA!!
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I love Purdy.
I love Matt Campbell.
I love Matt Campbell.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yeah, I love Campbell. Not the cute shtick - the baseball bats on the team bus, the sledgehammer in the locker room, the gold teeth, the pimped up locker room, all the cute shit and more.
Campbell gets coaching, really gets it. Discipline. Execution. Exposing team's weaknesses. Putting players in the right place to win.
And doing all of this with players that wouldn't get a sniff from Texas.
Fuck.
Campbell gets coaching, really gets it. Discipline. Execution. Exposing team's weaknesses. Putting players in the right place to win.
And doing all of this with players that wouldn't get a sniff from Texas.
Fuck.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
oops
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Thanks for posting....Now I don't feel so bad for losing $168.oops
:moneyoutofhand:
