Week 4 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Good grief, it's already Week 4. I look forward to college football season all year, and then in a heartbeat it's week 4. I rolled the dice and played a huge card and it worked out, 10-7, and if I would have laid off during the week, it would have been even better. I liked Marshall this week, but decided to just shut the hell up about the Thursday night games once and for all. So far so good for the Herd, but the night is still young. Thankfully I picked the right teams to play a round robin money line parlay with(Memphis, BYU, Utah State), so I made a few bucks!

A 10-7 week moves the year long record to 21-15-1. Decent, but nothing remarkable. We'll see what happens this week. Sorry for the late start...I've been traveling all month for work, and this week was no exception.

Notre Dame +6.5 WIN
Utah State +9 LOSS
Boston College +2 WIN
SMU +10 WIN
Texas Tech +9 LOSS. I THINK TEXAS JUST SCORED AGAIN
Colorado State +23 WIN
UTSA +3 WIN
Baylor +7 WIN
Arkansas +5.5 WIN
Kentucky -5 WIN
Kansas State +5 LOSS
Navy +20 WIN
Tennessee +20 LOSS (REMINDER:MULLEN IS AWARE OF AND CARES ABOUT THE BETTING LINE)
North Carolina -14 LOSS
Oklahoma -17 LOSS (WAS DEAD IN THE FIRST 2 MINS)
Cal +7.5 WIN
Oregon State +11 WIN

11-6 (32-21-1)

1. Notre Dame +6.5 vs Wisconsin: This line puzzles me. Maybe I'm a square, and I understand that Notre Dame's previous performances look more and more dubious every week, but who really thinks that Wisconsin has done anything since their opener last year(and with Grant Mertz as their QB) to be favored by this much over Notre Dame on a neutral field? A couple weeks ago I took 26.5 points with Eastern Michigan in Madison because I didn't think Wisconsin could score enough points to cover that, regardless of how well their defense played. Well, their defense held EMU to 66 total yards of offense for the entire game, a virtually PERFECT defensive performance, and the Badgers covered that game by.....a half point. Don't get me wrong: Notre Dame is way overdue for a loss based on how poorly they played this year, but Wisconsin cannot be trusted to cover a TD in this spot, given the efficiency level their offense has played at recently. Don't forget that this game is not in Madison but at Soldier Field in Chicago, a site about equidistant between the two schools. Both teams will have plenty of fans there, and the Irish are in the rare position of being able to feel slighted, as they are getting almost a TD. They'll have a chip on their shoulder, and their QB was basically jettisoned in favor of the previously mentioned and woefully inefficient Graham Mertz. I suspect the Irish will give their best effort of the year here, so I'll definitely take the 6.5.
 
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I agree as well.

Neither team is great imo, both solid enough with some weaknesses. This feels like a very close game that can go either way..,
 
KJ said:
Hope you are right and can get a great number on Cincinnati next week. Been a shark with frickin' laser beams on that one since early Summer
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I've heard quite a few people say that KJ. Although I cashed a ticket with the Bearcats last week, Indiana out-scrimmaged them for sure. They don't give out W's for that, so credit Cincy, but they won't beat ND if they play like they did last week.
 
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2. @Utah State +9 v Boise: In their obsession to get themselves on CBS, the Mountain West scheduled this game at 9AM local time. We'll see what kind of effect that has on the teams, but I'm guessing that if it benefits anyone, it probably helps the home team. This is in some respects a principle play for me...if they are going to keep; giving me significant points with the non-Gary Anderson part 2 version of Utah State, or to put it another way, the offensively capable Blake Anderson/Logan Bonner version, I'm gonna keep taking it. Utah State's defense looks terrible on paper, but it hasn't kept them from a 3-0 record, with wins on the road over Washington State and Air Force. IN this case, Utah State's most glaring weakness (Run D) might not hurt them very much because Boise, for whatever reason, cannot run the ball to save their lives. In the opener against a UCF team that ranked in the bottom quarter in the country in run defense the year before, their RBs carried it 22 times for 49 yards. Last week against Oklahoma State, they ran for 63 yards on 23 carries. In week 2, at home against UTEP(!!!!!!) they ran for 121 yards on 37 carries, failing to crack 4 yards per carry against one of the worst FBS programs of the last 20 years. Utah State has had all kinds of trouble straight up and ATS in this matchup, but they've likely never had such a clear advantage with their offense over the Bronco defense. So far this year, Utah State has been the better team, and the 9 point spread doesn't seem to appropriately factor what has happened on the field so far this year. New Boise coach And Avalos, in his 2 non UTEP games, has been unable to show an ability to adjust in the second half, as they were completely dominated by UCF in week one's second half, and were shut out the final 30 minutes last week by Oklahoma State. Utah State has ben too good, and Boise too ordinary to not take the 9 with Utah State as the home dog.
 
KJ said:
Hope you are right and can get a great number on Cincinnati next week. Been a shark with frickin' laser beams on that one since early Summer
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Conversely, I hope this game is just physical as can be and wears down Wisconsin with UM on their way to Camp Randall next weekend.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I've heard quite a few people say that KJ. Although I cashed a ticket with the Bearcats last week, Indiana out-scrimmaged them for sure. They don't give out W's for that, so credit Cincy, but they won't beat ND if they play like they did last week.
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I don't believe remotely that the Bearcats against ND will look anything like the Bearcats against Indiana. The kinda sleepwalked through that game last weekend and still won by 14. There will be no sleep walk in South Bend. I'm confident of that.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I've heard quite a few people say that KJ. Although I cashed a ticket with the Bearcats last week, Indiana out-scrimmaged them for sure. They don't give out W's for that, so credit Cincy, but they won't beat ND if they play like they did last week.
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I thought that was one the worst games I’ve seen cincy play the last 2 years. I agree they won’t beat ND if they play like that again, i just don’t think they will play that horribly again.
 
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Agree on mertz. I think wiscy be far better off if they had the kid now playing qb for Irish! Wiscy so hard for me to figure out cause both games they have for most part moved the ball at will, they been freaking terrible in the red zone tho. If that keeps up there no way I see them covering. I just wonder if the early bye might have been just what they needed to fix that shit? Maybe they can’t? I dunno. I do know Irish dc better abandon that 2 high safety let other team run the ball shit they played in these games where they been getting gashed on the ground. They continue playing that defense wiscy will have another day with 90+ offensive snaps!!

I’m in same camp as kj and others, I’d love for ND to win this game not only for the better price on cincy but I’d like Bearcats to have that quality win they deserve when making this out of conf schedule, it be shitty luck for them if ND ends up being a 3 loss team.
 
2daBank said:
Agree on mertz. I think wiscy be far better off if they had the kid now playing qb for Irish! Wiscy so hard for me to figure out cause both games they have for most part moved the ball at will, they been freaking terrible in the red zone tho. If that keeps up there no way I see them covering. I just wonder if the early bye might have been just what they needed to fix that shit? Maybe they can’t? I dunno. I do know Irish dc better abandon that 2 high safety let other team run the ball shit they played in these games where they been getting gashed on the ground. They continue playing that defense wiscy will have another day with 90+ offensive snaps!!

I’m in same camp as kj and others, I’d love for ND to win this game not only for the better price on cincy but I’d like Bearcats to have that quality win they deserve when making this out of conf schedule, it be shitty luck for them if ND ends up being a 3 loss team.
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I think it's one of those games that feels like ND wins SU or Wisconsin covers
 
Love the utah st play. They becoming one my fav doggies! Think my favorite part of this bet is they have owned 4th qrtr and ive seen boise totally suck in 2nd half vs both decent teams they played.

I could do without The goofy early start time, feel like that really tough to cap but guess ya gotta do whatever to get yourself a national TV game! Im a little worried if we get a typical HFA at that time? I would hope the 3-0 start bringing excitement to program, being boise coming in, and being a rare national TV game would help make the atmosphere jumping despite the early start,, im not sure that be the case tho?

I’d prefer utah st didn’t go and fall behind dd for a 3rd time this year but nice to know they have that comeback ability, that big when getting 9 points! (Back door always open). I’m pretty sure I’ll be on the ml as well, I mean why not? I know boise has owned this matchup but I’m a buyer in the new coaching staff who brought bunch of transfers with them. I read a lot of talk about their commitment to training in offseason, between that and the offense wearing teams down they sure have looked to be the better conditioned team in the 4th qrtr of these games.

As you mentioned boise lack of halftime adjustments has been pretty pitiful. The fact they continued playing the same 2 deep safety garbage against okie lite while cowboys crammed the run game down their throats was some the worst coaching I ever seen! Think we have a big advantage when it comes to the X’s and O’s!
 
Are we sure Bonner good to go? He was pretty banged up last week. I haven’t been able to find much about it. The good news is utah st has another capable qb who has played in every game and made plays.
 
2daBank said:
Are we sure Bonner good to go? He was pretty banged up last week. I haven’t been able to find much about it. The good news is utah st has another capable qb who has played in every game and made plays.
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I couldn't find anything indicating otherwise Bank. I hope so.
 
3. @Boston College +2 v Missouri: When I saw this line, I was a bit puzzled. I realize it's an ACC squad against an SEC squad, but Missouri and BC don't necessarily represent the customary squads of those leagues. I'm not sure Mizzou has the chops of "SEC" the way Alabama, Florida, Auburn, LSU do for example. Also, when you look closely at the schedules of these teams, BC undoubtedly has built a 3-0 record on the backs of some truly feeble opposition, and they haven't looked very impressive in the process. UMass covered easily against them, and they only managed 221 yards last week in a 28-3 win over Temple. They are also without highly regarded QB Phil Jurkovec, who broke his wrist and is out of the season. Back QB Dennis Grosel looked awful last week, throwing for only 60 yards, so with all these factors added up, maybe the line does make some sense. Shouldn't BC be a home dog against a middling team like MIzzou? I mean, we all like Eli Drinkwitz, right? No, they shouldn't. Since Drinkwitz came aboard, Mizzou has won 1 road game, and that was by a whisker against a terrible South Carolina team last year. The fewest points they've given up on the road in the stretch is 35 and they've been outgained by 100+ yards per game. They were blown out by Tennessee and Mississippi State and so far this year, gave up 511 yards in a 7 point loss at Kentucky that wasn't even that close. BC came into the season with a lot of pundits take the over on their win total due to the overall strength of who they had coming back. Now, Jurkovec is hurt and they are stuck with Grosel, but a quick look at his previous history shows that he has several solid performances on his resume over the 3 years he's spent in the program including a 522 yard passing performance last year against Virginia in a 43-32 shootout. I suspect BC has definitely noticed that they are the dogs in this game and I suspect Grosel and the rest of the team will bounce back with a solid performance off that Temple debacle(which they were good enough to beat by 25 anyway). Missouri is not worthy of being a road favorite in this spot in my opinion. I expect BC to take care of business here.
 
4. SMU +10 @TCU: I'm always skeptical of laying points with a team that I suspect is going to have a really hard time stopping their opponent. This is likely going to be the case with the Horned Frogs in this game, as SMU comes to town with an offense featuring Tyler Mordecai, he of the 16 TD passes in 3 games. TCU has had a week to recover, but the last time they played, Cal's Chase Garbers lit them up for over 19 yards per completion. He's no slouch, but I don't think anyone would expect Cal's offense to be more explosive than SMU's, so I would think the Mustangs will have a lot of success against the Frog defense. I also like Max Duggan, so I'm sure the Frogs will score as well, but this is a pretty fierce rivalry game, and SMU has major expectations for themselves that haven't been derailed yet. Throw in the fact that TCU is 6-19 as a home favorite since 2016, and I'll take the points.
 
5. Texas Tech +9 @Texas: So far this year, Texas has played 2 great games and one terrible one. Texas Tech's profile most closely resembles that of Arkansas(the opponent for the terrible one), a solid but not spectacular squad from a big conference who has surprised with a good start. Arkansas completely shut down Texas's running game and pressured Hudson Card into a terrible game. They also bullied Texas's entire team right off the field in a game that wasn't close from jump street. Much like Arkansas, Tech has been very good defensively in their FBS games (Stephen F Austin actually played the best against them). I've always been a big fan of Matt Wells. His teams play hard, and now that he's been there for awhile, they are taking on his personality. Defensively, they rank 8th in yards per play, 10th against the run and 17th in yards per pass attempt. Offensively, I really like Oregon transfer Tyler Shough, and I suspect Tech will run the ball as Arkansas ran wild on them and even Rice piled up some chunk runs, resulting in Texas's current 106th ranking against the run. I think Tech has the better coach, the better QB, and probably the better defense, so I'll gladly take the 9 points here
 
6. Colorado State +23 @Iowa: I was on Iowa last week, and frankly, I was lucky to get the cover as everything had to go right for the Hawkeyes to get to 30 points. Kent was actually driving, down only 16-7 in the 3rd quarter when the Flashes fumbled and that as it(good for me). My thought process was that Iowa would not find a better candidate to get their offense going to the level of an efficient competitive offense, and although they looked somewhat competent against that terrible defense, that ship may have sailed. Now Colorado State comes in, fresh of a stunningly good defensive performance on the road against Toledo. They are by no means good on offense, but they have a QB in Todd Centaio who has had some success in the past. The run the ball at a decent clip, but nobody runs on Iowa so points are going to be hard to come by for the Rams. Having said that, they are good on defense. Any team that can go on the road and hold Toledo to 21 yards on 28 carries and keep them under 300 total yards has a good scheme. My guess is that after a horrific start, CSU is rounding into the same kind of team they usually are, which is to say, decent. Just about anyone can luck into a few points, and if CSU can figure out a way to get 10-13. Iowa has proven that they'll be hard pressed to score more than they did against Kent without a defensive TD or 2.
 
7. UTSA +3 At Memphis: Memphis had some home dog magic last week, as Mississippi State found a way to lose in the Liberty Bowl, just like a lot of SEC West squads have done before them. This happened despite Memphis being outgained by the Bulldogs by more than 200 yards. Memphis couldn't run on them and Seth Henigan, who looked great against a couple of putrid defenses, managed only 5.5 yards per attempt. The Roadrunners have been very good defensively, ranking 19th against the run and 35th against the pass. Offensively, they are stacked with solid talent at the skill positions. Road dogs at 3 or less tend to be profitable, especially a team like UTSA, who is 12-6 in the road dog role since 2017. In a lot of cases, a team that escaped the previous week has their luck catch up with them, especially hen it was such an emotional upset win. I have a feeling the books are asking you to bet on Memphis.
 
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8. @Baylor +7 v Iowa State: I know that everyone loves Matt Campbell, and that Iowa State is supposed to be a darkhorse playoff contender, but I just don't trust Brock Purdy enough to think that he can lead them to that kind of promised land. Typically, the Cyclones have been solid in these kind of games...it's the excruciating losses to Oklahoma that usually keep them from reaching the heights they want to reach. I have a feeling that this year might unravel earlier for them, and I think Baylor might be a team who can start them on that path. Both teams have excellent defenses, but Baylor's offense, with the addition of former BYU OC Jeff Grimes looks to be significantly more explosive. They haven't played anyone, but they totally destroyed Kansas (410 yard edge), which shows me they have some scheme chops if they can do that to a Lance Leipold coached team. Defensively, we know they will hold their own as Dave Aranda knows what he's doing and they were solid last year with all hands back on deck. If Baylor can convert 3rd downs, this game should go down to the wire at least.
 
Brass BOL this week, my first play was UTST. Texas Tech and SMU were both on my lean list, and appreciate your thoughts there on those games. I tend to like under in ND/Wisc game more than the side and I think what bothers me about ND is the matchup of their garbage OL vs. Wisc DL and then I'm not sure about the new def coordinator running the 3-3-5 stack on D. I think that defense has been hard for them to adjust to, and as a result they are not using the depth on the DL (tackles) because of the NG alignment in the 3-3-5. ND line play on both sides of the ball has been subpar imo...Mertz though is worse than Coan, I agree on that and Wisc despite dominating TOP has really struggled to be efficient offensively.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. UTSA +3 @memphis: Memphis had some home dog magic last week, as Mississippi State found a way to lose in the Liberty Bowl, just like a lot of SEC West squads have done before them. This happened despite Memphis being outgained by the Bulldogs by more than 200 yards. Memphis couldn't run on them and Seth Henigan, who looked great against a couple of putrid defenses, managed only 5.5 yards per attempt. The Roadrunners have been very good defensively, ranking 19th against the run and 35th against the pass. Offensively, they are stacked with solid talent at the skill positions. Road dogs at 3 or less tend to be profitable, especially a team like UTSA, who is 12-6 in the road dog role since 2017. In a lot of cases, a team that escaped the previous week has their luck catch up with them, especially hen it was such an emotional upset win. I have a feeling the books are asking you to bet on Memphis.
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Took over here, game of the week for me
 
Timh said:
Brass BOL this week, my first play was UTST. Texas Tech and SMU were both on my lean list, and appreciate your thoughts there on those games. I tend to like under in ND/Wisc game more than the side and I think what bothers me about ND is the matchup of their garbage OL vs. Wisc DL and then I'm not sure about the new def coordinator running the 3-3-5 stack on D. I think that defense has been hard for them to adjust to, and as a result they are not using the depth on the DL (tackles) because of the NG alignment in the 3-3-5. ND line play on both sides of the ball has been subpar imo...Mertz though is worse than Coan, I agree on that and Wisc despite dominating TOP has really struggled to be efficient offensively.
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I agree with that Timmy...all of it actually. I just think that even if everything goes right for Wisconsin, 6.5 is a ton for them to cover on a neutral. If they do, I'll tip my cap.
 
9. Arkansas +5.5 v Texas A&M: I actually put this bet in a couple hours ago and I see this is down to 4.5 in some spots. Chances are it will get back up to 5 or even 5.5. The Razorbacks have been extremely impressive this year, especially in the Texas game where they absolutely bludgeoned the Longhorns. They were especially strong in stopping Texas stalwart running back Bijan Robinson, holding him to about 3 yards per carry, while at the same time running the ball down Texas's throats. The run game is where I see a major edge for Arkansas. They rank 8th in the country in yards per carry while the Aggies are ranked only 66th, and on the flip side it's a A&M 71 Arkansas 9 matchup when A&M is trying to run it. If A&M can't run, I don't have a lot of faith in backup QB Zach Calzada at this point, and it will be a lot of ask of him to toss the rock around enough to bring home a win. Arkansas took A&M to OT in 2 of the last 3 years in this game, and those teams were much more separated by talent than these 2 editions are. (And Arkansas is better coached now than they were too)
 
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10. Kentucky -5 @South Carolina: This is Kentucky's first foray on the road, and I usually hate backing road favorites in a scenario like that, but this one is tough to lay off. First, Kentucky has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and covered 7 of the last 8. Second, there isn't really a facet of the game that Kentucky has struggled with this year, they're running it, they're throwing it, they stop the run, they stop the pass, and South Carolina doesn't do any of that stuff. Kentucky has the edge in every meaningful category, and by a lot. I just think that if Kentucky plays any semblance of a competent game, they'll be able to win this one going away.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
I agree with that Timmy...all of it actually. I just think that even if everything goes right for Wisconsin, 6.5 is a ton for them to cover on a neutral. If they do, I'll tip my cap.
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I'm pissed because I procrastinated and missed the 47.5. I don't disagree with ND side play, just concerned with that OL and think they need to come out throwing and use that TE who is a very good player and not get in adverse down and distance situations by being stubborn and thinking they can run on Wisc. . I'm considering the same game tease with dog and under.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I couldn't find anything indicating otherwise Bank. I hope so.
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yea i couldnt either, the bright side if he gets banged up again we have a good 2nd option who has played in every game i think.. i really love this play,, utah st turning into one these underdog darlings we seem to get every year, they keep pulling game out and keep getting disrespected!! love it!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. @Boston College +2 v Missouri: When I saw this line, I was a bit puzzled. I realize it's an ACC squad against an SEC squad, but Missouri and BC don't necessarily represent the customary squads of those leagues. I'm not sure Mizzou has the chops of "SEC" the way Alabama, Florida, Auburn, LSU do for example. Also, when you look closely at the schedules of these teams, BC undoubtedly has built a 3-0 record on the backs of some truly feeble opposition, and they haven't looked very impressive in the process. UMass covered easily against them, and they only managed 221 yards last week in a 28-3 win over Temple. They are also without highly regarded QB Phil Jurkovec, who broke his wrist and is out of the season. Back QB Dennis Grosel looked awful last week, throwing for only 60 yards, so with all these factors added up, maybe the line does make some sense. Shouldn't BC be a home dog against a middling team like MIzzou? I mean, we all like Eli Drinkwitz, right? No, they shouldn't. Since Drinkwitz came aboard, Mizzou has won 1 road game, and that was by a whisker against a terrible South Carolina team last year. The fewest points they've given up on the road in the stretch is 35 and they've been outgained by 100+ yards per game. They were blown out by Tennessee and Mississippi State and so far this year, gave up 511 yards in a 7 point loss at Kentucky that wasn't even that close. BC came into the season with a lot of pundits take the over on their win total due to the overall strength of who they had coming back. Now, Jurkovec is hurt and they are stuck with Grosel, but a quick look at his previous history shows that he has several solid performances on his resume over the 3 years he's spent in the program including a 522 yard passing performance last year against Virginia in a 43-32 shootout. I suspect BC has definitely noticed that they are the dogs in this game and I suspect Grosel and the rest of the team will bounce back with a solid performance off that Temple debacle(which they were good enough to beat by 25 anyway). Missouri is not worthy of being a road favorite in this spot in my opinion. I expect BC to take care of business here.
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i been dying for this game since summer then bc qb had to go and get hurt, they could still pull it off but im not nearly as in love with.. now i have become quite fond of the under,, i know you dont do totals but 58 feels pretty freaking high to me.. i think at his heart BC coach rather run the ball and rely on a good defense anyways, now that what they have to do.. i expect they are able to really play keep away in this game as mizzou can be had on the ground and have not been good getting off the field on 3rd downs,, i do think anytime BC gets behind the chains with this qb their drives will stall, good for under,.,. mizzou throws a bunch but they are totally a dink and dunk team so it basically a run game for them,, i think the clock will move really fast in this one, like we look up and there only be a few minutes left till half and the score be something like 10-7!! hopefully bc can just wear them out with the top edge and continue to lean on them in the second half which will serve us both well!!!!

as always man i think you have a fantastic looking card which doesnt surprise anyone at this point!!! gl this week
 
11. Kansas State +5 @Oklahoma State: Last week Okie State went up to Boise and got a nice win, but I'm not sure that this Boise team is good enough to get too excited about it. Again, Andy Avalos and staff could not make adjustments on offense in the second half, and the Cowboys ran on them effectively. It's a good thing they ran on them too, because it just doesn't seem as though Spencer Sanders is going to gt to the level we all thought he would a couple years ago. Now they have to face a Kansas State defense that nobody has been able to run on this year so far (ranked #2 in yards per carry against), so if Sanders can't throw effectively today to the receivers who thus far have not been able to get open, their offense will probably have a rough day. KSU will still be without Skylar Thompson at QB, but Kleiman has a good plan with backup Will HOWARD, a runner by trade who has picked his spots well enough to be effective when necessary throwing it, as he burned Nevada for 12.3 yards per attempt last week. K state has always been good as a road dog, and they are 13-4 ATS against the Cowboys in the last 17 head to head meetings. My conscience won't allow me to pass up this side.
 
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2daBank said:
i been dying for this game since summer then bc qb had to go and get hurt, they could still pull it off but im not nearly as in love with.. now i have become quite fond of the under,, i know you dont do totals but 58 feels pretty freaking high to me.. i think at his heart BC coach rather run the ball and rely on a good defense anyways, now that what they have to do.. i expect they are able to really play keep away in this game as mizzou can be had on the ground and have not been good getting off the field on 3rd downs,, i do think anytime BC gets behind the chains with this qb their drives will stall, good for under,.,. mizzou throws a bunch but they are totally a dink and dunk team so it basically a run game for them,, i think the clock will move really fast in this one, like we look up and there only be a few minutes left till half and the score be something like 10-7!! hopefully bc can just wear them out with the top edge and continue to lean on them in the second half which will serve us both well!!!!

as always man i think you have a fantastic looking card which doesnt surprise anyone at this point!!! gl this week
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Thanks as always for the feedback Bank! I don't disagree with your logic, but you won't get a single word about totals from me. All it will do is throw you off! This is one I'm interested to see as well, totally agree.
 
12. Navy +20 @Houston: I am a glutton for punishment, but I really can't pass this one up. Anyone who had Navy 2 weeks ago hopefully didn't watch the game, because if they did, they had to endure one of the worst offensive performances in recent history. Navy had 1 first down, total with 5 minutes left in the game. It was an abomination. So what in the hell am I thinking? A lot has changed since that game two weeks ago. Say what you will about Ken Niamatololo, but the guy has proven he knows what he's doing. The OC was fired immediately after the game, and Navy was off last week, so it's likely KN took a hands on approach and has the Middies in as good a spot as they can be in. Also, a road trip is perfect for Navy here as their first 2 horror shows took place in Anapolis. Despite everything that's happened, this is still a service academy on the road getting points, and not just points, but a shitload of them. Houston comes into this game as an enigma, having torched some weak sisters and getting their pants pulled down by the one good team they've played(Texas Tech) who completely dominated them after halftime. Starting QB Clayton Tune is out for this game, and if I know Dana Holgorson, it's likely he was just introduced to the whoever the backup is this week. Houston has a horrific record of embarrassment trying to chase down service academy option offenses, so even if this is a lacking Navy edition, they should be able to see some success. It just seems like a good spot for Navy. I can't see them just slinking into the shadows and accepting their fate as a 2-10 type team under Niamatololo.
 
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The Navy AD fired the Navy OC immediately after the Air Force loss, but a couple days later Coach Ken lobbied for him to be on the staff and they brought him back as QB coach. Ivan Jasper is not running the offense anymore.
 
13. Tennessee +20(-115) @Florida: I just grabbed this at 20, not sure if it will stay there, but I bit. This is another one that you might hold your nose and play, but this just seems like a lot of points for me. IN all three of their games, Tennessee has been stingy against the run, and that's what Dan Mullen wants to do, given his druthers. Emory Jones is not a great passer, so if Tennessee can stiffen against the run, Florida might not be able to get up and down the field enough to cover a big number like this. Although I wasn't wild about UT's decision to snatch Josh Heupel from UCF, they guy is not incompetent like a lot of the previous Tennessee coaches were. He'll have a good game plan, and his receivers have been open all year. This is a terrible spot for Florida coming off that Alabama game, and we all know Tennessee has athletes that at least belong on the same field with Florida. Even in the case of a 35-10 score late, Tennessee will have a chance for a backdoor, and that's assuming that things go poorly for them. If that's the case, I'll sheepishly pull out the red marker and take my medicine, but I think the chances are pretty good that this is a game in the second half.
 
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s--k said:
The Navy AD fired the Navy OC immediately after the Air Force loss, but a couple days later Coach Ken lobbied for him to be on the staff and they brought him back as QB coach. Ivan Jasper is not running the offense anymore.
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Thanks for the clarification my man. Jasper was even previously considered the coach in waiting, correct?
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for the clarification my man. Jasper was even previously considered the coach in waiting, correct?
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That I do not know. Him and Coach Ken have been together a long time. The move can be a positive one as Jasper returned to the team to coach QBs, like Coach Ken said, they are a better staff with him than without him, but at the same time they can inject some new input and wrinkles into the offense without him overseeing it.
 
Florida was -23.5 vs FAU and won 35-14
Florida is -20 today vs Tennessee...Tennessee -3.5 vs FAU? That doesn't seem right.

I think today's line is high because perception is so low on Vols preseason and we still don't know exactly if that perception is in fact reality or not. Appears there is some premium built into the line for people taking UF or fading Vols. I'll be on Tennessee too.
 
14. North Carolina -14 v Georgia Tech: This game is actually at Mercedes Benz stadium and not on the Tech campus, so one of my reservations about betting on North Carolina is eliminated. They really are a different team when they are playing on the road, as their results from last year and the opener from this year will illustrate for you. However, in this case, I just don't see how Tech can hang with the Tar Heels. Even in the case of Virginia, who has a high powered passing attack, the Hoos were overwhelmed by the UNC offense and they couldn't keep up for more than about 37-40 minutes. Is Georgia Tech's defense that much better than Virginia's? Maybe, but I can guarantee you their offense isn't in the same stratosphere, and if they want to cover this number, they are going to have to hold that UNC offense to about 35 at most. Tech looked great on defense against what appears to be a totally broken (for now) Clemson offense, but Northern Illinois and Kennesaw State both ran for more than 5 yards a carry if you back out QB losses. On the fast track, I just don't see Tech being able to keep up, and I can't imagine a follow up performance to last week being possible, at least to the level that will be necessary here.
 
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s--k said:
Florida was -23.5 vs FAU and won 35-14
Florida is -20 today vs Tennessee...Tennessee -3.5 vs FAU? That doesn't seem right.

I think today's line is high because perception is so low on Vols preseason and we still don't know exactly if that perception is in fact reality or not. Appears there is some premium built into the line for people taking UF or fading Vols. I'll be on Tennessee too.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. Great point.
 
15. @Oklahoma -17 v West Virginia: Not as wild about this as I was when I got it at 16, but I still think it's a play at 17. Everyone knows that Oklahoma hasn't had a performance on offense that we would expect so far this year, and West Virginia seems to be s capable as anyone the Sooners have played so far. But I really don't like the spot here for the Mountaineers. Nice win at home over Va Tech that they had to hang on for dear life to keep, and all Oklahoma is hearing all week is how bad they've been. It's been particularly bad for QB Spencer Rattler, a Heisman frontrunner coming into the season who hasn't played anywhere close to what was expected of him. He's cashed in on NIL money, so there's been some overt criticism of his desire. This is a totally new concept, so I'll be very interested to see how he responds, but there's no doubt that he's probably never had more personal motivation to play well than he does this week. The fact that this is the ABC night game makes it more urgent for OU in my opinion. I don't know that I'd be playing this if this game was a noon kick. On the flip side, Seth Doege is just not the QB to lead a team in a tough environment in my opinion, and chances are he'll gift wrap a couple INTs for the Sooner defense to help the cause. I think the chances are good we get an inspired effort from Rattler, so I'm gonna lay it in this one.
 
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16. Cal +7.5 @Washington: Washington went from a national laughingstock to worthy of a TD+ favorite over Cal in one week, a week in which Arkansas State flew up to Seattle and no-showed. We kind of knew that their defense was horrendous, but they definitely proved it, and Washington took advantage. The question now is, is it real? Cal comes into Seattle having beaten the Huskies outright as double digit underdogs in consecutive years. They should be able to run the ball on Washington, and I like Chase Garbers and how he's looked this year in the passing game. Justin Wilcox certainly has this Washington staff's number. Can the Huskies sustain the positive momentum from the gimme they got from Arky State last week and dispose of Cal? Sitting at 1-2, Cal needs a win, so I'd suggest Washington will get their best shot. I take my chances with the Bears and more than a TD.
 
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17. Oregon State +11 @ USC: Now that USC took care of covering averse Nick Rolovich and the Washington State Cougars, all is well in Trojan land right? Well, they still have a defense that's not really good at anything, and they're facing an offense ranked 20th in yards per play on offense and 24th in run defense. USC also can't rush the passer to save their lives, so Qb Chance Nolan will have time to pick his spots. It looks like Kedon Slovis will be back at QB for the Trojans, and frankly, if I'm a USC fan, I'd think they'd rather be on the road at this point rather than get off to a slow start and endure the awkwardness of a nervous home crowd. I think OSU coach Jonathan Smith is solid, and I'd suggest that they have a clear edge on the sidelines. 11 is too much for a fragile USC team in my opinion.
 
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