Week 4 -- Need Some Input

H

HookedOnUT1

Pretty much a regular
I must admit, I am new to the numbers-based capping side of things, as I previously have just used my eyes and what I see in teams.

I started working on a formula, and after some running of numbers, I think it has some real potential. I didn't play these last week (at least based on the formula), but here were the results:

Big Bets:
USC (W)
Alabama (L, don't get me started on that one)
Arizona (W)
Wisconsin (W)

Medium Bets:
Louisville (push)
Virginia Tech (L, thanks kicker)
Georgia Tech (W)
Idaho (W)
Iowa (W)
Ohio (W)
Texas (as you might be able to tell from my profile, I am a UT grad. Due to Ash's injury, this was a no play for me. If anything, I would have been on Ole Miss)
Oregon State ML (W)
Wisconsin ML (L, again, tough break here)

After running the numbers, anything rated a small play is something I won't play until I am able to see more data and/or build my bankroll.

My sample size is still small enough that I'm not ready to stick my neck out too far, but I wanted to get thoughts based on what the numbers spit out this week.

(With some updates based on feedback from CTG folks)
Big Bets (6 units unless noted):
NC State +14 -- REMOVED BASED ON FEEDBACK -- wound up playing for 1 unit (W)
Boise State +3 (W)
Georgia Tech -6.5 (W)
Michigan State +7 (9 units, W)
Stanford -7.5 (W)
Idaho +31 (L)
Texas State +26.5 -- wound up getting at 28, bought 1/2 pt. (W)
Big Bet Recap: 5-1, as well as 1 small unit W. +28 units.

Medium Bets (3 units):
Boise State ML (L)
Florida -16.5 (L)
Louisiana Tech +10.5 (W) (moved from a Big bet based on feedback)
Pitt -4 (L)
SMU +28.5 (L)
Michigan State ML (L)
Arkansas State -4 (L)
Medium Bet Recap: 1-6. -15 units

Overall Results from Week #4: 7-7, +13 units. A good week, but the more I run the numbers hopefully the more information I'll be able to draw from.

FYI, I didn't play any of my leans/small units so I didn't update, although I was 4-3 for tracking purposes.
 
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I can give you a lot of quality input if you would post your lines ( don't have to show the formula ) for week 5 on Saturday night.

Welcome to numbers based capping.

I will never understand the 6 unit 3 unit deal but the new age cappers all do that and it isn't like one needs a math degree to figure out your 6 unit plays are your 1 unit plays and your 3 unit plays are your .5 unit plays so it harms nothing.

Best of luck and continued success with your formula based capping.
 
VK said:
I can give you a lot of quality input if you would post your lines ( don't have to show the formula ) for week 5 on Saturday night.

Welcome to numbers based capping.

I will never understand the 6 unit 3 unit deal but the new age cappers all do that and it isn't like one needs a math degree to figure out your 6 unit plays are your 1 unit plays and your 3 unit plays are your .5 unit plays so it harms nothing.

Best of luck and continued success with your formula based capping.
Click to expand...

VK,

Thanks for your thoughts and good wishes. As far as the numbers are concerned, unfortunately I can't get them produced that fast. A variety of factors in play.

Regarding the units, at first glance it makes sense for those just to be 1/2. That said, I do have plays based on my numbers that would be a small play (at 1 unit), and so that's why I have them where I do.

Thanks again, and I'm excited to see how my formula fares going forward. I'd be lucky to be in the same universe as a lot of guys on this board (yourself included).
 
Hehe I can't win a bet these days in sports, but thanks. The reason I wanted your lines Saturday night is so that you can watch them in regards to what the market does. If the market moves towards your numbers then you are on the right track and if they move away from your numbers you might still have some fine tuning to do. From an outsiders perspective I wanted the lines before open in order to watch that.

UT fan as well .. my lord .... 5th best team in the state?
 
I think NC State is a serious mistake, and Idaho is primed for a letdown after that near-upset vs. NIU.

Remember, State lost its QB early in the opener after he had gone 3-3 for 93 yards. Without him, State and this abysmal La. Tech team were basically equal from the line of scrimmage (State 5.5 yards per play to 5.4 for LTU). Margin was partly due to the fact that Tech lost all 4 of its fumbles, including a fumble at the goal line.

State's other game was vs. Richmond, which was co-champion of a good FCS conference last year. However, it turns out that Richmond's 8-3 record was largely due to an amazing +22 turnover margin. (They won interceptions 24-4.) From the line of scrimmage they and their opponents were equal at 5.4 yards per play. Their opponents' average power rating was 45.9, per Sagarin's formula, or 39 points weaker than last year's Clemson team, per the same ratings. Because Richmond returned 9*/8 starters, we should expect Richmond to play better than last year's numbers early in the season, but accounting for that still doesn't move State's numbers vs. Richmond (won yards per play 5.8-4.6) into a range that would come close to translating into a cover this Thursday. Score (23-21) was closer than yardage (444-322) because -- you guessed it -- Richmond was +2 in turnovers as Thomas threw two picks to none for Richmond's solid QB Strauss.
 
The fact that NC State and La Tech both show up on your bet list suggests to me that your numbers are not fully accounting for the precipitous drop in La Tech's quality from last season to this.
 
VK said:
Hehe I can't win a bet these days in sports, but thanks. The reason I wanted your lines Saturday night is so that you can watch them in regards to what the market does. If the market moves towards your numbers then you are on the right track and if they move away from your numbers you might still have some fine tuning to do. From an outsiders perspective I wanted the lines before open in order to watch that.

UT fan as well .. my lord .... 5th best team in the state?
Click to expand...

You'll get it going. That's the ebbs and flows of this, and things have a way of equaling themselves out (good and bad).

That makes total sense regarding the Saturday timing. One thing I can do is track the lines, and then as my numbers come together, gauge accordingly.

Yes, being a UT fan is painful -- in all three major sports. Hopefully a change in regime is coming, and with that, a breath of fresh air.
 
M.W. said:
I think NC State is a serious mistake, and Idaho is primed for a letdown after that near-upset vs. NIU.

Remember, State lost its QB early in the opener after he had gone 3-3 for 93 yards. Without him, State and this abysmal La. Tech team were basically equal from the line of scrimmage (State 5.5 yards per play to 5.4 for LTU). Margin was partly due to the fact that Tech lost all 4 of its fumbles, including a fumble at the goal line.

State's other game was vs. Richmond, which was co-champion of a good FCS conference last year. However, it turns out that Richmond's 8-3 record was largely due to an amazing +22 turnover margin. (They won interceptions 24-4.) From the line of scrimmage they and their opponents were equal at 5.4 yards per play. Their opponents' average power rating was 45.9, per Sagarin's formula, or 39 points weaker than last year's Clemson team, per the same ratings. Because Richmond returned 9*/8 starters, we should expect Richmond to play better than last year's numbers early in the season, but accounting for that still doesn't move State's numbers vs. Richmond (won yards per play 5.8-4.6) into a range that would come close to translating into a cover this Thursday. Score (23-21) was closer than yardage (444-322) because -- you guessed it -- Richmond was +2 in turnovers as Thomas threw two picks to none for Richmond's solid QB Strauss.
Click to expand...

M.W.,

Thanks for the feedback from both of your posts. It is truly appreciated. Regarding State, I frankly haven't tracked them early in the year, as their first two games weren't ones I caught. I'll turn that one into a no play, but still track it from a results perspective.

In terms of Idaho, I know they are in a prime spot for a letdown, but Wazzou also has Stanford on the horizon next week, so I feel that balances it out, if not swings it back in the Vandals' favor. Who knows, I could be off on that, but I did look at schedules for both teams in all of the above scenarios to see if there is a trap element.

As far as La Tech (and my numbers in general), it is quite possible that some of the factors involve last year too much, although they shouldn't be weighted too much in that direction. However, I do believe the formula should strengthen as the year goes along, based on how I've put it together. Since I'm new to this though, there's certainly no way to know for sure yet and we shall see.

Thanks again for your feedback!
 
Updated my post with results for week 4. Big bets went very well, and the medium bets were just the opposite. Looking forward to a better week 5!
 
Nice work.

I can't help in any capacity for you really... my numbers appear to be off this year and you can't produce yours before open. So my opinion on what you are playing is worthless and I can't help examine your numbers unless I see them prior to open.

About the only help I can provide is to tell you to not buy half points from 27.5 to 28
 
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