Week 4 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Sep 23 Thu 2021

6:30 PM
303Marshall+7
-105		O 57½
-115
304Appalachian State-7
-115		U 57½
-105
Sep 24 Fri 2021

5:30 PM
305Middle Tennessee State+2½
-110		O 56
-110
306Charlotte-2½
-110		U 56
-110
6:00 PM
307Wake Forest+4
-110		O 65½
-110
308Virginia-4
-110		U 65½
-110
7:00 PM
309Liberty-6½
-115		O 53
-110
310Syracuse+6½
-105		U 53
-110
9:00 PM
311UNLV+31
-110		O 57
-110
312Fresno State-31
-110		U 57
-110
Sep 25 Sat 2021

11:00 AM
313Bowling Green+30
-105		O 49½
-110
314Minnesota-30
-115		U 49½
-110
11:00 AM
317Notre Dame+6
-110		O 45½
-115
318Wisconsin-6
-110		U 45½
-105
1:00 PM
319Toledo-4½
-115		O 57
-110
320Ball State+4½
-105		U 57
-110
1:00 PM
321San Jose State+2½
-105		O 62
-110
322Western Michigan-2½
-115		U 62
-110
1:00 PM
323Texas State+5½
-110		O 58½
-110
324Eastern Michigan-5½
-110		U 58½
-110
6:00 PM
315Kentucky-5½
-115		O 49
-110
316South Carolina+5½
-105		U 49
-110
 
Damn. Saw wisc briefly open 3 and went to pounce and it moved. Wanted them at 3 for a large play. Will be on Toledo, WKU, App, Meep Meep, and my Vols for sure
 
FYI - David Bell of Purdue is in concussion protocol

The status of Purdue receiver David Bell for Saturday's game vs. Illinois is murky, as the junior looks to rebound from a big hit he took in last Saturday's game at Notre Dame.

"So, David Bell is in concussion protocol," said Boilermaker coach Jeff Brohm today, "and will continue to take him through the process. Hopefully, it gets better each and every day."

Purdue (2-1) may not know if Bell will be available to play Illinois (1-3) in the Boilermakers' Big Ten opener until Thursday, Friday or even Saturday.

"Correct," said Brohm. "It'll go through the normal concussion protocol and pass a series of tests and doing some different things and seeing how he progresses."

Even if Bell has limited to no practice this week--and ends up getting cleared before the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Ross-Ade Stadium, he still could suit up for Purdue.

"He's the type of player that doesn't have to practice a whole lot at all, other than making sure he's feeling right and feeling good, in good condition, in good shape," said Brohm. "I think we'll monitor that obviously extremely closely this week and hope to get him out there whenever he can go."

In the fourth quarter last Saturday, Bell took a big hit from behind from Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton. Bell subsequently hit the ground violently face first after taking the blow.

He lay on the field for an extended time before being taken to the locker room on a cart. Bell was sitting up and alert as he left the field. Bell sent out a tweet (see below) Sunday night saying he was OK.
Click to expand...
 
Just 1st glance feel like this card makes me happy, see plenty of dogs I can get behind! Just some initial thoughts, no plays yet.

Kills me BC lost their qb, Grosel didn’t do anything vs temple to inspire confidence, Mfer was 5-13 for 34 stinking yards!! That should have been a game they looked to get him some confidence and that what we got?!?!?!! Had this game circled since august but think just have to throw it out now.

Utah st catching +9 at home to boise? Yes please. As i mentioned in the “what have we learned” thread (and several times before that!), I think Bachmeier sucks, dude has no feel for playing the qb position! He makes so many terrible decisions and guy seems oblivious to the pass rush! What I did take away from that game I didn’t know is I think Boise play calling on both sides is ass. One the worst defensive schemes/lack of adjustments I ever seen playing against a team that clearly had no desire to pass the ball!! Sure don’t see them going on the road against a solid Utah state team and winning by double digits.

Start of season id have been all over San Jose st as dogs to western Michigan, now I’m not so sure. Still can’t figure out how they managed only 17 points vs Hawaii?!?!! Awful.

Ville laying less than a fg to noles seems like a no brainer. Norvell is doing a shit job at fsu.

Interested in Kent st getting more than 2 tds to Terps. This actually big step down in competition for Kent st having already played Texas AM and Iowa!

My how Clemson perception taken a dive! When last time they only laying 10 against any acc team?

Arkansas interesting, think I like the under 47 tho.

Getting a discount on Bruins after shitting the bed against fresno? Still think they at least a td better than trees.

Kinda lean Vols getting 20 if they gonna continue playing Hooker!

K-st +6 vs okie lite looks appealing. They won’t sit back like Boise did and continually give up 6-7-8 yards per carry! I think if you can force Sanders to throw he will make mistakes.

Wku back, give me the over against Indiana. I thought pennix looked better vs cincy than he had up to that point, maybe getting more comfy on his repaired knee?

Cal +7.5 vs udub be only way I could play that game.
 
Situation is bad for SJSU playing in Hawaii going to Eastern time zone, 6 hour time difference in one week!

But I've still taken them and the line has flown in my face because I put more into fading WMU off the upset, not going crazy with it though
 
2daBank said:
Just 1st glance feel like this card makes me happy, see plenty of dogs I can get behind! Just some initial thoughts, no plays yet.

Kills me BC lost their qb, Grosel didn’t do anything vs temple to inspire confidence, Mfer was 5-13 for 34 stinking yards!! That should have been a game they looked to get him some confidence and that what we got?!?!?!! Had this game circled since august but think just have to throw it out now.

Utah st catching +9 at home to boise? Yes please. As i mentioned in the “what have we learned” thread (and several times before that!), I think Bachmeier sucks, dude has no feel for playing the qb position! He makes so many terrible decisions and guy seems oblivious to the pass rush! What I did take away from that game I didn’t know is I think Boise play calling on both sides is ass. One the worst defensive schemes/lack of adjustments I ever seen playing against a team that clearly had no desire to pass the ball!! Sure don’t see them going on the road against a solid Utah state team and winning by double digits.

Start of season id have been all over San Jose st as dogs to western Michigan, now I’m not so sure. Still can’t figure out how they managed only 17 points vs Hawaii?!?!! Awful.

Ville laying less than a fg to noles seems like a no brainer. Norvell is doing a shit job at fsu.

Interested in Kent st getting more than 2 tds to Terps. This actually big step down in competition for Kent st having already played Texas AM and Iowa!

My how Clemson perception taken a dive! When last time they only laying 10 against any acc team?

Arkansas interesting, think I like the under 47 tho.

Getting a discount on Bruins after shitting the bed against fresno? Still think they at least a td better than trees.

Kinda lean Vols getting 20 if they gonna continue playing Hooker!

K-st +6 vs okie lite looks appealing. They won’t sit back like Boise did and continually give up 6-7-8 yards per carry! I think if you can force Sanders to throw he will make mistakes.

Wku back, give me the over against Indiana. I thought pennix looked better vs cincy than he had up to that point, maybe getting more comfy on his repaired knee?

Cal +7.5 vs udub be only way I could play that game.
Click to expand...
It will be Joe at QB to start.
 
2daBank said:
Just 1st glance feel like this card makes me happy, see plenty of dogs I can get behind! Just some initial thoughts, no plays yet.

Kills me BC lost their qb, Grosel didn’t do anything vs temple to inspire confidence, Mfer was 5-13 for 34 stinking yards!! That should have been a game they looked to get him some confidence and that what we got?!?!?!! Had this game circled since august but think just have to throw it out now.

Utah st catching +9 at home to boise? Yes please. As i mentioned in the “what have we learned” thread (and several times before that!), I think Bachmeier sucks, dude has no feel for playing the qb position! He makes so many terrible decisions and guy seems oblivious to the pass rush! What I did take away from that game I didn’t know is I think Boise play calling on both sides is ass. One the worst defensive schemes/lack of adjustments I ever seen playing against a team that clearly had no desire to pass the ball!! Sure don’t see them going on the road against a solid Utah state team and winning by double digits.

Start of season id have been all over San Jose st as dogs to western Michigan, now I’m not so sure. Still can’t figure out how they managed only 17 points vs Hawaii?!?!! Awful.

Ville laying less than a fg to noles seems like a no brainer. Norvell is doing a shit job at fsu.

Interested in Kent st getting more than 2 tds to Terps. This actually big step down in competition for Kent st having already played Texas AM and Iowa!

My how Clemson perception taken a dive! When last time they only laying 10 against any acc team?

Arkansas interesting, think I like the under 47 tho.

Getting a discount on Bruins after shitting the bed against fresno? Still think they at least a td better than trees.

Kinda lean Vols getting 20 if they gonna continue playing Hooker!

K-st +6 vs okie lite looks appealing. They won’t sit back like Boise did and continually give up 6-7-8 yards per carry! I think if you can force Sanders to throw he will make mistakes.

Wku back, give me the over against Indiana. I thought pennix looked better vs cincy than he had up to that point, maybe getting more comfy on his repaired knee?

Cal +7.5 vs udub be only way I could play that game.
Click to expand...
I'm still going to be on Boston College. Agree on Utah State as well.
 
Ryno14 said:
I'm still going to be on Boston College. Agree on Utah State as well.
Click to expand...

i just don’t know w this qb man, 34 yards against temple?!??! They gonna have to get production out the passing game against mizzou cause they will score some points.
 
2daBank said:
oh Jesus, they seriously gonna start him over Hooker? That is dumb. I heard that last week but hooker turned out being the guy, I don’t even think it close who is better. No hooker, no bet for me.
Click to expand...
Hooker can't throw the ball the way you need to in Heupel's offense. Hooker is OK but you have to completely change the gameplan. Hooker was the guy this week because they decided to rest Milton. It'll be Milton and guessing he will have a decent sized leash.
 
So a couple weeks ago in the ML Dog thread I made this post: "Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

Both Favs covered easily and, looking back on it, It's very similar to the method (exact same method to be more precise) that whenever a lower-ranked team is favored over a higher-ranked team, play the fav! Right?

Week 3 I did not find any games where the fav was lower-ranked than the dog in Sagarin Ratings.

Week 4, however, we have 8!!

BC is rated 3 spots higher than Mizzou.
Stanford is rated 3 spots higher than UCLA.
FAU is 2 spots higher than Air Force.
Kansas State is rated 4 spots higher than Okie State.
UAB is rated 4 spots higher than Tulane.
Nebraska is rated 13 spots higher than Sparty.
MTSU is rated 15 spots higher than Charlotte.
New Mexico is rated 20 spots higher than UTEP.

FWIW I thought I'd share.....BOLTA!!

:cool:
 
West Vagina as a fave vs VT was an old system play huh? Unranked team at home favored vs ranked team. Knew a guy used to do that a bunch
 
JROCK1966 said:
So a couple weeks ago in the ML Dog thread I made this post: "Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

Both Favs covered easily and, looking back on it, It's very similar to the method (exact same method to be more precise) that whenever a lower-ranked team is favored over a higher-ranked team, play the fav! Right?

Week 3 I did not find any games where the fav was lower-ranked than the dog in Sagarin Ratings.

Week 4, however, we have 8!!

BC is rated 3 spots higher than Mizzou.
Stanford is rated 3 spots higher than UCLA.
FAU is 2 spots higher than Air Force.
Kansas State is rated 4 spots higher than Okie State.
UAB is rated 4 spots higher than Tulane.
Nebraska is rated 13 spots higher than Sparty.
MTSU is rated 15 spots higher than Charlotte.
New Mexico is rated 20 spots higher than UTEP.

FWIW I thought I'd share.....BOLTA!!

:cool:
Click to expand...

I think the BC line is based off not having their qb.

I find it insane that trees are above Bruins in any rankings! Last weeks bed shitting against pac12 killers fresno aside still think Bruins the best team not named ducks in pac12.
 
2daBank said:
I think the BC line is based off not having their qb.

I find it insane that trees are above Bruins in any rankings! Last weeks bed shitting against pac12 killers fresno aside still think Bruins the best team not named ducks in pac12.
Click to expand...
I couldn’t believe it either but check it out if you like....the trees are indeed rated higher than the bruins..
 
JROCK1966 said:
I couldn’t believe it either but check it out if you like....the trees are indeed rated higher than the bruins..
Click to expand...

I believe you, just seems crazy to me. Bruins prob be one the few favs I play this week, maybe. Lol
 
I was pretty optimistic about him week 1. Thought he really brought something to the Utes they had been lacking. That was just vs Weber though where his receivers could get open and his OL could protect. When the going got tough and Utah didn't have such advantages over their opponents, Brewer struggled and was benched. Hate guys that quit on their teams. This is college free agency. He will show up somewhere else I guess and try again.
 
I def had higher hopes for him but he was a complete bum vs byu. Good for Utah he gone, he sucked.
 
He wasn't good the last two games, but QB play is far from Utah's only problem
 
JROCK1966 said:
So a couple weeks ago in the ML Dog thread I made this post: "Weird...found two games where the dog has a higher Sagarin rating than the fav....N. Illinois is rated 12 spots higher than Wyoming but is dogged by a TD.....Buffalo has the largest spread at 2 TDs but they sit 37 spots higher than the Huskers....what to make of that?

Both Favs covered easily and, looking back on it, It's very similar to the method (exact same method to be more precise) that whenever a lower-ranked team is favored over a higher-ranked team, play the fav! Right?

Week 3 I did not find any games where the fav was lower-ranked than the dog in Sagarin Ratings.

Week 4, however, we have 8!!

BC is rated 3 spots higher than Mizzou.
Stanford is rated 3 spots higher than UCLA.
FAU is 2 spots higher than Air Force.
Kansas State is rated 4 spots higher than Okie State.
UAB is rated 4 spots higher than Tulane.
Nebraska is rated 13 spots higher than Sparty.
MTSU is rated 15 spots higher than Charlotte.
New Mexico is rated 20 spots higher than UTEP.

FWIW I thought I'd share.....BOLTA!!

:cool:
Click to expand...
Very, very interesting...
 
Assuming UCLA wants to get back to their running game roots of weeks 1 and 2 of 2021, Stanford should have trouble stopping it. STanford is 117th allowing about 210ypg to Kansas St, USC and Vandebilt. Vandy ran for 247 and 5.6 on them.
 
I think MTSU is pretty bad. Unfortunately that didn't make me any money week 1 as I bet Monmouth thinking MTSU was bad. Well, that night, MTSU was certainly better than the FCS school I had hardly ever heard of. Since then the only scores MTSU has had vs VT and UTSA have been in garbage time. I did take UTSA last week on the premise of MTSU being bad, plus I know UTSA is good. Now, compared to MTSU, both VT and UTSA are pretty superior. Charlotte is more their size. Still, I think Charlotte is a much better team with better players, coaches and have tasted some recent success. This should be a spot 49ers emerge with a win after a somewhat surprising loss at a sometimes decent Georgia State team last week.
 
I would expect the BC D to challenge Mizzou. But the offense that BC is going to field shouldn't be anything that Mizzou can't handle. They've already played a substantially better offense in Kentucky than what BC currently has with Grosel at QB and what Mizzou is accustomed to facing in a normal SEC schedule.
 
s--k said:
I think MTSU is pretty bad. Unfortunately that didn't make me any money week 1 as I bet Monmouth thinking MTSU was bad. Well, that night, MTSU was certainly better than the FCS school I had hardly ever heard of. Since then the only scores MTSU has had vs VT and UTSA have been in garbage time. I did take UTSA last week on the premise of MTSU being bad, plus I know UTSA is good. Now, compared to MTSU, both VT and UTSA are pretty superior. Charlotte is more their size. Still, I think Charlotte is a much better team with better players, coaches and have tasted some recent success. This should be a spot 49ers emerge with a win after a somewhat surprising loss at a sometimes decent Georgia State team last week.
Click to expand...
The MTSU starting qb just quit too.
 
2daBank said:
I think the BC line is based off not having their qb.

I find it insane that trees are above Bruins in any rankings! Last weeks bed shitting against pac12 killers fresno aside still think Bruins the best team not named ducks in pac12.
Click to expand...
At this point in the season, Sagarin's ratings are still based partly on last year and the year before.
 
CPA-hole said:
The MTSU starting qb just quit too.
Click to expand...

Another transfer QB quits because he isn't doing well and his team is losing. Well isn't that special.

These "hired guns" aren't always all the are cracked up to be, have no commitment to the program, have not established relationships and what turns out to be lifelong friendships with the other kids they came in with, no chemistry with players who were there before. And if they struggle, if they get taken out of the game, 'screw you guys, I'm going home' (in Eric Cartman voice).

Cunningham played the 2nd H vs UTSA and 5min left in the 4th Q vs VT. He has better numbers but some of that might be when he was inserted into the games.

MTSU brought in a transfer QB to win the job I assume because they didn't have anyone on the roster they felt that could start. Cunningham doesn't appear to be any better, although maybe the team will be happier?
 
Anyone know what day(s) the syndicates release their plays? Saw some movement on totals yesterday but there doesn't seem to be much today

The old Rex thread was great, miss that but I'm not as concerned about the plays, just wondering when to expect the movement
 
M.W. said:
At this point in the season, Sagarin's ratings are still based partly on last year and the year before.
Click to expand...

Gotcha, I never pay much attention so when I hear some the rankings they surprise me. Bummed out I just noticed k-st was 25th in one poll or another, I hate betting ranked dogs to unranked team. Really liked them catching 6 too. Now not so sure.
 
Think it was in the dog thread where me and Sk discussed this, taking a liking to the cal/udub over 46. Cal defense has been nothing close to what I expected them to be, no shame in Strong throwing for 300 yards in the 1st game, allowing tcu to score 34 is a different story, then last week they allowed Sacramento st to throw for 370 and hang 30 points! I don’t like huskies coach Lake but I do think their offense has started showing signs going back to the 2nd half the Michigan game, I can’t imagine they won’t be able to score 27-31 here. As bad as cal defense has been I actually think the offense been better than expected, Garbers has played pretty well imo and the run game is decent enough you can’t key in on stopping the passing game. Long as udub can get us 27 or more I feel pretty good with cal getting 20.
 
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