Week 4 Discussion Thread

Looking like liberty gonna be one them games we all on! Wasn’t easy but It worked out with Bearcats last week!! Lol
 
Cal's been outscored in the 2nd H of all 3 games this year. Read that in an article looking for Kuony Deng update.
 
s--k said:
Yeah, the one game they won. Obviously the other two games, poor second halves directly led to close losses.
Click to expand...

Def thought they shoulda beat tcu. Once again the defense was incredibly disappointing tho. Honestly kinda surprised I even covered with tcu scoring 34! Wasn’t the way I envisioned it at all!
 
2daBank said:
Damn. Even Sacramento st got them 24-21!
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To be fair to them, Sac St is pretty good for FCS and has that chip on the shoulder against the big schools that didn't recruit them locally

There's a reason they set that total so low, Cal probably on sleepwalk with Sac St and I might be talking myself into a UW team total under at this point
 
KJ said:
To be fair to them, Sac St is pretty good for FCS and has that chip on the shoulder against the big schools that didn't recruit them locally

There's a reason they set that total so low, Cal probably on sleepwalk with Sac St and I might be talking myself into a UW team total under at this point
Click to expand...

As I said my perception of cal has nothing to do with the Sac st game. Certainly doesn’t help but I thought the defense was awful against tcu also.
 
I think ya gotta love cal with the points and probably to pull the upset if you think they hold udub under their team total. I initially leaned cal but have started working my way more toward over. I do think cal can score 20+.
 
Anyone have a strong opinion either way on the Irish/wiscy game? I’d like for ND to win just to help get better number with cincy the following week., want it to be a super physical game also! I have no clue how it gonna play out tho? It be great if wiscy was able to run another 90 plays like they did to pen state!!
 
2daBank said:
Anyone have a strong opinion either way on the Irish/wiscy game? I’d like for ND to win just to help get better number with cincy the following week., want it to be a super physical game also! I have no clue how it gonna play out tho? It be great if wiscy was able to run another 90 plays like they did to pen state!!
Click to expand...
Not taking ND under a TD and not taking Wisky by more than 1...so likely pass, maybe small ML

I want to see Bearcats curb stomp them next week though, hoping for a physical 17-13 type game
 
KJ said:
Not taking ND under a TD and not taking Wisky by more than 1...so likely pass, maybe small ML

I want to see Bearcats curb stomp them next week though, hoping for a physical 17-13 type game
Click to expand...

Yea that would be ideal. Hoping fickle takes this week to clean up all the dumb ass mistakes they made vs Hoosiers. I’m really not sure what I think of wiscy yet? I mean they really shoulda beat penn st.
 
Last edited:
This ND OL allows pressure and Coan can't escape pressure, definitely a matchup to watch.

Wisconsin did not defend downfield well vs Penn State in the 2nd H. This is an area that ND should be able to have success too with their receivers (assuming they can pass protect). UW D could adapt and do something different schemewise unless they have inadequate backend players (none of UW's DBs were 1st or 2nd Tm All Conf last year, Caesar Williams was 3rd Tm).

Last week ND had a RB catch 39y TD pass, 62y TD pass. NBC Sports had an article that last week 44.3% of explosive score yardage. On the year, their explosive score yardage is 28.7%, the previous ND high for this metric is 2017 when they were 18.5%. So this year, ND doesn't sustain drives like they typically have, but is showing more ability to hit big plays - although consider the opposition of FSU, Tol, Pur. Receivers for ND are better on paper this year than 2020, with each week we find out if they actually are or not.

The ND OL feels like is what is going to determine how this game goes.
 
2daBank said:
Anyone have a strong opinion either way on the Irish/wiscy game? I’d like for ND to win just to help get better number with cincy the following week., want it to be a super physical game also! I have no clue how it gonna play out tho? It be great if wiscy was able to run another 90 plays like they did to pen state!!
Click to expand...
I'm on 1H under 23, but it's Wisky or pass for me if we're talking sides. Wisky is built much better for what they do, and ND is alarming average on the OL given that it normally is a strength (and their style of play counts on it). ND has been really fortunate to get some big plays, esp last week vs Purdue, because they are not executing with regularity in the run game (under 3 YPC on season, and would've only had 70 yards on 30 vs Boilers last week but for busting a 50-yarder late) or pass game (Coan has been sacked 14 times in 3 games!) - and against FSU, Toledo and Purdue. On the other side, they're allowing 4.3 YPC (again, to Noles, Toledo and Purdue) and have to stop Wisky rushing attack. I think Badgers lean on Irish, dominate in the 2H with big time of possession advantage and win by two scores, something like 23-14.
 
s--k said:
This ND OL allows pressure and Coan can't escape pressure, definitely a matchup to watch.

Wisconsin did not defend downfield well vs Penn State in the 2nd H. This is an area that ND should be able to have success too with their receivers (assuming they can pass protect). UW D could adapt and do something different schemewise unless they have inadequate backend players (none of UW's DBs were 1st or 2nd Tm All Conf last year, Caesar Williams was 3rd Tm).

Last week ND had a RB catch 39y TD pass, 62y TD pass. NBC Sports had an article that last week 44.3% of explosive score yardage. On the year, their explosive score yardage is 28.7%, the previous ND high for this metric is 2017 when they were 18.5%. So this year, ND doesn't sustain drives like they typically have, but is showing more ability to hit big plays - although consider the opposition of FSU, Tol, Pur. Receivers for ND are better on paper this year than 2020, with each week we find out if they actually are or not.

The ND OL feels like is what is going to determine how this game goes.
Click to expand...
He said it better than me. Agree that ND OL determines how the game goes, and not really willing to give them the benefit of the doubt after watching way more Irish football than I normally do first 3 weeks thanks to nationally televised Labor Day Sunday game plus backing Toledo and Boilers...
 
BiffTFinancial said:
I'm on 1H under 23, but it's Wisky or pass for me if we're talking sides. Wisky is built much better for what they do, and ND is alarming average on the OL given that it normally is a strength (and their style of play counts on it). ND has been really fortunate to get some big plays, esp last week vs Purdue, because they are not executing with regularity in the run game (under 3 YPC on season, and would've only had 70 yards on 30 vs Boilers last week but for busting a 50-yarder late) or pass game (Coan has been sacked 14 times in 3 games!) - and against FSU, Toledo and Purdue. On the other side, they're allowing 4.3 YPC (again, to Noles, Toledo and Purdue) and have to stop Wisky rushing attack. I think Badgers lean on Irish, dominate in the 2H with big time of possession advantage and win by two scores, something like 23-14.
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Yea ND run game has been surprisingly (to me) bad. I don’t have much interest in betting it was just curious what everyone else thought bout it. Your tske certainly makes sense, i still can’t get over how wiscy lost after leaning so hard on psu with 90+ plays but allowing the big plays in 2nd half while they couldn’t cash in any red zone trips. I have no doubt you right about them owning top, the way noles gashed Nd in run game doesn’t bode well for them, my only question will the way wiscy go about it be easier for them?
 
Line was 2.5-3 summer, now 6.5. Which is because everyone has seen how bad ND is, or has seen how bad the teams they played are.

ND might have that edge in athletes in space argument, but they lose it at the LOS which is likely what matters more. Wisconsin -6.5 at neutral means about 10 at Camp Randall hypothetically? Man that is just weird to me. I don't like the line at all. Granted I generally don't like favorites anyway as I tend to give underdogs more of a shot sometimes than they should have. It's like I feel like ND could be in this game, but I can't make any sense to myself saying how or why.
 
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s--k said:
Line was 2.5-3 summer, now 6.5. Which is because everyone has seen how bad ND is, or has seen how bad the teams they played are.

ND might have that edge in athletes in space argument, but they lose it at the LOS which is likely what matters more. Wisconsin -6.5 at neutral means about 10 at Camp Randall hypothetically? Man that is just weird to me. I don't like the line at all. Granted I generally don't like favorites anyway as I tend to give underdogs more of a shot sometimes than they should have. It's like I feel like ND could be in this game, but I can't make any sense to myself saying how or why.
Click to expand...
Terrible betting game imo

You really feel comfy needing Wisky to win by a TD here? Me neither.
 
Towson - San Diego State Over 41.5? With some big runs, turnovers maybe a D or ST score, almost could see normally limited scoring Aztecs get close to that number themselves. Don't know what this number will be as get closer to gametime, just saw it out there. Probably assume Towson scores between 0-7, San Diego State score 35-42 vs an FCS? If not maybe better to play Aztecs -23.5? North Dakota St just beat Towson at Towson 35-7 -14.5
 
After listening to the Stanford Steve/bear podcast last night where they talked a little bout the Mizzou/BC game they kinda pointed out some things that made me feel silly I hadn’t already thought bout. Guess the fact BC lost their qb just had me avoiding this game, but the 58 total seems way high doesn’t it?

We saw against temple last week that BC has very little interest throwing the ball much! Should have been a game they looked to get Grosel some confidence , instead he only threw 13 passes! Only completed 5 of them for 34 yards w 1 td and 1int!’!! Shouldn’t they have used that game to get the QB in some kinda rhythm? Really like BC coach, think his backround and preferred thing is defense, gotta think they attempt to play ball control against mizzou, can’t imagine they capable of scoring much more than 24-27! Still expect this to be a competitive game, for that to happen they gonna have to keep mizzou under 30!! 58 seems really high.
 
This week book is saying prove to me the top 10 teams of texas am, clemson, and oklahoma are what they are showing to be. Lines aren't adjusting to what they are showing. It's either going to be an overeaction to how bad they look or an overreaction to giving them respect for the perception they were coming into the season.

Not much talk of arkansas here - interesting this line with arky beating texas and TAMU has looked completely average with problems of alot of new players. Outrushed by colorado by 80 yards, kent looked good vs them and they didn't dominate new mexico like they should. I like jimbo as a big game coach but how are they showing to be better than arkansas here ? I like the TAMU defense but running qbs just gave them alot of trouble this year and I'm not sure the defense is as elite as need to be.

Oklahoma - I'm on the neers , sample size of 2 is enough. Tulane routinely gets blown out by the ole misses, the ucf's etc anybody with explosive pass offenses. Why couldn't oklahoma blow them out ? Nebraska is who we think they are every year- a very average team.

Clemson - Do we overreact to georgia tech ? That's as daming a performance as I've seen offensively.
 
2daBank said:
After listening to the Stanford Steve/bear podcast last night where they talked a little bout the Mizzou/BC game they kinda pointed out some things that made me feel silly I hadn’t already thought bout. Guess the fact BC lost their qb just had me avoiding this game, but the 58 total seems way high doesn’t it?

We saw against temple last week that BC has very little interest throwing the ball much! Should have been a game they looked to get Grosel some confidence , instead he only threw 13 passes! Only completed 5 of them for 34 yards w 1 td and 1int!’!! Shouldn’t they have used that game to get the QB in some kinda rhythm? Really like BC coach, think his backround and preferred thing is defense, gotta think they attempt to play ball control against mizzou, can’t imagine they capable of scoring much more than 24-27! Still expect this to be a competitive game, for that to happen they gonna have to keep mizzou under 30!! 58 seems really high.
Click to expand...

The total seems high, Missouri did score 28 at UK. Last year they were held to 20 or below six times. Mizzou held Vandy, SC and UK to a combined 20 pts and then everyone else on their schedule scored atleast 35 on them. And this year, even CMich and SEMizz scored 24 and 28 on them. And statistically, there is some reason to worry about the Mizzou D...Rush D yards allowed...174 vs CMich (4.46), 341 vs UK (6.56) and 294 vs SEMizz (8.17).

Maybe I need to consider that even without Jurkovec, that BC O poses more of a threat to Mizzou than I previously thought.

I went back and looked at the Grossel. I either had it wrong or they updated the stats after Sunday, he was 5-of-17, not 3-of-15. In the play-by-play it went like this.

compl 10y
compl 19y TD
INT on deep pass
compl 2y (BC holding)
sack (Temp holding no play)
sack
compl 19y
compl 6y
compl 6y
END 1ST Q

incomp
incomp
incomp
sack
incomp
incomp
END 2nd Q

incomp
compl 3y loss
incomp
END of 3rd Q

No pass att 4th Q

So in the 1st Q, he completed 6-of-7. But then in the 2nd and 3rd combined he went just 1-of-8.

We might give the BC D more credit than they deserve. Can't really garner much from the Colgate/UMass/Temple results. Last season they allowed 43 to UVA, 27 to LV, 45 to ND, 13 to Cuse, 34 to Clem, 27 to GT, 40 to VT, 30 to Pitt (OT), 26 to UNC, 21 to TexSt and 6 to Duke. That all averages out to 28..4 ppg. We can throw out the Os that don't resemble Missouri (Duke, Cuse) and the ones that are better than them (Clem, ND) and that average becomes 30.5. This season BC allowing 10.3. I'd say that BC allows closer to 30 than 10 if history is to be a guide and if Mizzou O is better than it was last year when it scored 20 or less in 60% of their games.

Lined at 1.5/58, that implies a 30-28 game.

Maybe it could be higher scoring than we think?
 
s--k said:
The total seems high, Missouri did score 28 at UK. Last year they were held to 20 or below six times. Mizzou held Vandy, SC and UK to a combined 20 pts and then everyone else on their schedule scored atleast 35 on them. And this year, even CMich and SEMizz scored 24 and 28 on them. And statistically, there is some reason to worry about the Mizzou D...Rush D yards allowed...174 vs CMich (4.46), 341 vs UK (6.56) and 294 vs SEMizz (8.17).

Maybe I need to consider that even without Jurkovec, that BC O poses more of a threat to Mizzou than I previously thought.

I went back and looked at the Grossel. I either had it wrong or they updated the stats after Sunday, he was 5-of-17, not 3-of-15. In the play-by-play it went like this.

compl 10y
compl 19y TD
INT on deep pass
compl 2y (BC holding)
sack (Temp holding no play)
sack
compl 19y
compl 6y
compl 6y
END 1ST Q

incomp
incomp
incomp
sack
incomp
incomp
END 2nd Q

incomp
compl 3y loss
incomp
END of 3rd Q

No pass att 4th Q

So in the 1st Q, he completed 6-of-7. But then in the 2nd and 3rd combined he went just 1-of-8.

We might give the BC D more credit than they deserve. Can't really garner much from the Colgate/UMass/Temple results. Last season they allowed 43 to UVA, 27 to LV, 45 to ND, 13 to Cuse, 34 to Clem, 27 to GT, 40 to VT, 30 to Pitt (OT), 26 to UNC, 21 to TexSt and 6 to Duke. That all averages out to 28..4 ppg. We can throw out the Os that don't resemble Missouri (Duke, Cuse) and the ones that are better than them (Clem, ND) and that average becomes 30.5. This season BC allowing 10.3. I'd say that BC allows closer to 30 than 10 if history is to be a guide and if Mizzou O is better than it was last year when it scored 20 or less in 60% of their games.

Lined at 1.5/58, that implies a 30-28 game.

Maybe it could be higher scoring than we think?
Click to expand...

BC did do a lot to strengthen their d in the transfer portal, think their coach is very defensive minded.. the stats im looking at showing Grosel as 5-13, lol.. he was good when he came into the umass game but it umass!

coach drink is a pretty good offensive mind imo, and it is fairly reasonable to expect them to throw a bunch, so certainly not suggesting it gonna be a total grind it out affair but 31-27 would push, i just dont think we gonna see a game played higher than that, mizzou d has had a hard time getting off the field on 3rd downs allowing a 53% conversion rate which is 117th nationally against as you said not the stiffest competition. makes me think BC is gonna be able to eat a lot of clock and keep the defense rested as they methodically grind out drives BC converting 3rd downs at a clip that ranks 7th nationally, again that is against cupcakes so it will obviously come down but still think bodes well for them to have success moving the chains as long they can get themselves into 3rd and manageable situations, considering what tigers been giving up per play (6ypp allowed on the season) that seems incredibly doable.. BC is rushing on 71% their plays thus far, 6th highest rate in the county! with mizzou allowing 5.6 per rush i think we will see BC continue running a lot! while tigers do throw a ton they also dont air it out much, only averaging 6.6 yards a attempt so there short passing game is somewhat their way of running the ball, against uk (only tough comp) tigers longest reception was 24 yards and other than that one no others longer than 17 yards! .. BC hasnt been sacked once on the season (cant believe that right, lol) but again comp level comes into play hugely there, this week i think fair to assume Grosel will see the most pressure he has had to deal with anytime he gets put into obvious passing situations as mizzou sporting the 5th best sack percentage in the country.. to me it all adds up to a game where the clock should move pretty quickly, where BC will look to own TOP but anytime mizzou manages to get them behind the chains thanks to a good play on early downs or a penalty their drives will stall.. feels like a low to mid 20s type of game to me..
 
anyone playing the marshal/app st game tonight? i like app st but dont like the idea of laying 7 in this one.. marshall got them 17-7 as 6 point dogs last year! total was actually a little higher than the 58.5 tonight, it was 60 last year which they obviously didnt sniff!! both played ecu with app st handling them fairly easily while ecu just beat marshall last week, not sure that means much but there not a ton to go off thus far as that was marshall toughest opponent. pretty much makes it impossible to trust any marshall gaudy numbers on the season. i do think app st should have a good amount of success rushing the ball.. i dunno what the play is or if there is one?
 
2daBank said:
anyone playing the marshal/app st game tonight? i like app st but dont like the idea of laying 7 in this one.. marshall got them 17-7 as 6 point dogs last year! total was actually a little higher than the 58.5 tonight, it was 60 last year which they obviously didnt sniff!! both played ecu with app st handling them fairly easily while ecu just beat marshall last week, not sure that means much but there not a ton to go off thus far as that was marshall toughest opponent. pretty much makes it impossible to trust any marshall gaudy numbers on the season. i do think app st should have a good amount of success rushing the ball.. i dunno what the play is or if there is one?
Click to expand...
I like the over quite a bit. I think both teams are going to be able to score.
 
2daBank said:
anyone playing the marshal/app st game tonight? i like app st but dont like the idea of laying 7 in this one.. marshall got them 17-7 as 6 point dogs last year! total was actually a little higher than the 58.5 tonight, it was 60 last year which they obviously didnt sniff!! both played ecu with app st handling them fairly easily while ecu just beat marshall last week, not sure that means much but there not a ton to go off thus far as that was marshall toughest opponent. pretty much makes it impossible to trust any marshall gaudy numbers on the season. i do think app st should have a good amount of success rushing the ball.. i dunno what the play is or if there is one?
Click to expand...
Forgot who said Marshall plays at a higher pace now…..more uptempo……I’m on the over…….Marshall QB seems to throw a lot of INTS……
 
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booksbestfriend said:
Wasn't the old thread on Thursday?
Click to expand...
Yes.

It started way back the the day with the Dr Bob releases at 3eastern, 12 pacific on Thursdays..

When it evolved to the Rex thread...still Thursdays and was a combo of Bob, RAS, other syndicates and Rex would show some heavy hitters into the shop he worked for in Costa Rica.
 
2daBank said:
anyone playing the marshal/app st game tonight? i like app st but dont like the idea of laying 7 in this one.. marshall got them 17-7 as 6 point dogs last year! total was actually a little higher than the 58.5 tonight, it was 60 last year which they obviously didnt sniff!! both played ecu with app st handling them fairly easily while ecu just beat marshall last week, not sure that means much but there not a ton to go off thus far as that was marshall toughest opponent. pretty much makes it impossible to trust any marshall gaudy numbers on the season. i do think app st should have a good amount of success rushing the ball.. i dunno what the play is or if there is one?
Click to expand...
Got a nice chunk on over 56 early, such a key number for totals but I doubt it matters here

Would still take over anything within a TD of that
 
I got the over at 57.5. It got up to 60.5 at one point. Wish I could've got the opener at 55.
 
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2daBank said:
BC did do a lot to strengthen their d in the transfer portal, think their coach is very defensive minded.. the stats im looking at showing Grosel as 5-13, lol.. he was good when he came into the umass game but it umass!

coach drink is a pretty good offensive mind imo, and it is fairly reasonable to expect them to throw a bunch, so certainly not suggesting it gonna be a total grind it out affair but 31-27 would push, i just dont think we gonna see a game played higher than that, mizzou d has had a hard time getting off the field on 3rd downs allowing a 53% conversion rate which is 117th nationally against as you said not the stiffest competition. makes me think BC is gonna be able to eat a lot of clock and keep the defense rested as they methodically grind out drives BC converting 3rd downs at a clip that ranks 7th nationally, again that is against cupcakes so it will obviously come down but still think bodes well for them to have success moving the chains as long they can get themselves into 3rd and manageable situations, considering what tigers been giving up per play (6ypp allowed on the season) that seems incredibly doable.. BC is rushing on 71% their plays thus far, 6th highest rate in the county! with mizzou allowing 5.6 per rush i think we will see BC continue running a lot! while tigers do throw a ton they also dont air it out much, only averaging 6.6 yards a attempt so there short passing game is somewhat their way of running the ball, against uk (only tough comp) tigers longest reception was 24 yards and other than that one no others longer than 17 yards! .. BC hasnt been sacked once on the season (cant believe that right, lol) but again comp level comes into play hugely there, this week i think fair to assume Grosel will see the most pressure he has had to deal with anytime he gets put into obvious passing situations as mizzou sporting the 5th best sack percentage in the country.. to me it all adds up to a game where the clock should move pretty quickly, where BC will look to own TOP but anytime mizzou manages to get them behind the chains thanks to a good play on early downs or a penalty their drives will stall.. feels like a low to mid 20s type of game to me..
Click to expand...

I'd say I explained why the total is where it is and you explained why it should go under. Makes sense!
 
A little statistical thing I noticed-

Marshall 14th 3rd down conversion O 54% (62-56-46 in three games)
App St 106th 3rd down conversion O 33% (36-33-30 in three games)

Both teams allow similar 34% to 30% on D
 
JROCK1966 said:
I couldn’t believe it either but check it out if you like....the trees are indeed rated higher than the bruins..
Click to expand...
I'm confused here. Are you saying bet the higher Sagarin ranked team in a game where they are dogs to the lower Sagarin rated team?
 
bones said:
I'm confused here. Are you saying bet the higher Sagarin ranked team in a game where they are dogs to the lower Sagarin rated team?
Click to expand...

I think he saying the worse rated team as favs been cashing. It been a day or 2 since that conversation tho so I coulda forgot or misunderstood! Lol. Thought it meant ucla would be a play tho, the team behind in rankings but a fav.
 
App State and Marshall each played East Carolina

App St won 33-19, App led 33-9 early in 4th Q, App outgained them 485-381 (7.7-5.9)

Marshall lost 38-42, Marshall led 38-21 after 3 Q, MU outgained them 647-563 (8.5-6.2). Turnvoers and onside kick were key

What can we take from these games and apply tonight? ECU was able to come back on both of them. App St led by 24. Marshall led by 17. Marshall O was better vs ECU. App St D was better vs ECU.
 
s--k said:
A little statistical thing I noticed-

Marshall 14th 3rd down conversion O 54% (62-56-46 in three games)
App St 106th 3rd down conversion O 33% (36-33-30 in three games)

Both teams allow similar 34% to 30% on D
Click to expand...

How much did the canes game effect app st numbers? Feel like they sucked on 3rd down in that game, sometimes my perception way wrong tho :). Even tho we learning canes suck they still far tougher than anyone Marshall has played.
 
2daBank said:
How much did the canes gannet effect app st numbers? Feel like they sucked on 3rd down in that game, sometimes my perception way wrong tho :). Even tho we learning canes suck they still far tougher than anyone Marshall has played.
Click to expand...

It didn't. I put the individual games in parenthesis. App St has been consistent in a bad way, vs Miami they converted 33%, 3 points worse than vs ECU and 3 points better than vs Elon
 
s--k said:
It didn't. I put the individual games in parenthesis. App St has been consistent in a bad way, vs Miami they converted 33%, 3 points worse than vs ECU and 3 points better than vs Elon
Click to expand...

Good stuff. (From you; not them, lol).
 
s--k said:
App State and Marshall each played East Carolina

App St won 33-19, App led 33-9 early in 4th Q, App outgained them 485-381 (7.7-5.9)

Marshall lost 38-42, Marshall led 38-21 after 3 Q, MU outgained them 647-563 (8.5-6.2). Turnvoers and onside kick were key

What can we take from these games and apply tonight? ECU was able to come back on both of them. App St led by 24. Marshall led by 17. Marshall O was better vs ECU. App St D was better vs ECU.
Click to expand...

I feel like anytime I have ever backed Ecu over the years I’m almost always needing a comeback by them to cover, seems to be their mo!!
 
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