Squirrel
Well-Known Member
Ended up 7-11 on the week. Won on my extra unit bets to end up around even on the week. 21-23-1 on the season, up roughly 30 units.
I fell into the trap of firing on too many openers on Sunday and got some good value overall, but kind of screwed myself by betting too much to be able to fire on other games once they moved or buy off of bad numbers. Setting a budget for next week.
Big Bets (4u each):
USC -6.5
Breakdown: I get this is the square play as most sharps I’ve seen are making this around 4. This feels very similar (but the opposite) to the lack of a downgrade on Nebraska’s defense last week going into the OU matchup where the dog got hit hard. I think people aren’t giving enough credit to how fast this USC team is on the outside and Riley’s wizardry at taking advantage of matchups by calling audibles from the sideline for every formation they’re facing. Williams has diced up every team they’ve played so far (against admittedly marginal defenses) and I like their running back. Defense isn’t stout across the board but they have playmakers in the secondary. Yes, turnovers will likely regress in future games, but the reaction I’ve seen about their turnover luck is overblown imo. They have 7 picks and 3 fumbles recovered, finishing the pick 6’s has luck involved, but you don’t get 7 picks in 3 games by purely luck. Up front, defensive metrics are concerning, particularly against the run, but I think it’s likely a shootout and don’t respect the beavs defense. Interested to see how it shakes out in a tough atmosphere in Corvallis on Saturday night.
Texas -4/4.5/5
UNC pk /+1
TCU pk/+1
Reg plays:
S. Bama -12.5
Oregon -6
Kansas -9
Cal -5.5
UCLA -20.5
West va -2.5
JMU +7.5
UNLV -2.5
Clemson -7
Baylor +3
Too many favs on the card for my liking, have my eye on several dogs.
I fell into the trap of firing on too many openers on Sunday and got some good value overall, but kind of screwed myself by betting too much to be able to fire on other games once they moved or buy off of bad numbers. Setting a budget for next week.
Big Bets (4u each):
USC -6.5
Breakdown: I get this is the square play as most sharps I’ve seen are making this around 4. This feels very similar (but the opposite) to the lack of a downgrade on Nebraska’s defense last week going into the OU matchup where the dog got hit hard. I think people aren’t giving enough credit to how fast this USC team is on the outside and Riley’s wizardry at taking advantage of matchups by calling audibles from the sideline for every formation they’re facing. Williams has diced up every team they’ve played so far (against admittedly marginal defenses) and I like their running back. Defense isn’t stout across the board but they have playmakers in the secondary. Yes, turnovers will likely regress in future games, but the reaction I’ve seen about their turnover luck is overblown imo. They have 7 picks and 3 fumbles recovered, finishing the pick 6’s has luck involved, but you don’t get 7 picks in 3 games by purely luck. Up front, defensive metrics are concerning, particularly against the run, but I think it’s likely a shootout and don’t respect the beavs defense. Interested to see how it shakes out in a tough atmosphere in Corvallis on Saturday night.
Texas -4/4.5/5
UNC pk /+1
TCU pk/+1
Reg plays:
S. Bama -12.5
Oregon -6
Kansas -9
Cal -5.5
UCLA -20.5
West va -2.5
JMU +7.5
UNLV -2.5
Clemson -7
Baylor +3
Too many favs on the card for my liking, have my eye on several dogs.
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