Week 3 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Wow what a weekend for Dogs last weekend.
Doubt we ever see one like that again

But we still find WINNERS here!!!

Who do we like?
 
Not sure of lines, but on the FCS I would be curious on Villanova at Army and Youngstown State at Kentucky I'm actually near Youngstown but admittedly I don't read or follow the team. Stoops is obviously from Youngstown and there are a couple UK players out of our area. YSU has lots of experience vs bigger FBS teams having played the likes of Penn State and Michigan St, Ohio State. They beat Pitt in 2012 31-17. This appears to be a better than average year for YSU and UK partied like they hadn't beat Florida before. Montana State at Oregon St could be interesting.
 
Bowling Green at Marshall could provide an upset. 1 because Marshall is off one of, if not the biggest upset win in their program's history. 2 while BGSU did lose to Eastern Kentucky, who is a good FCS team, still a black eye, but not an especially bad loss - I think most had rated BGSU as a pretty solidly improved team this season. Likely not an upset I would count on happening had the expected result taken place in South Bend for Marshall, but now, the door might be open a little.
 
Probably not an awful time to consider Ohio at Iowa State given that ISU just won the Cyhawk in defeating Iowa for the first time since 2014. Ohio was only down 7-19 vs Penn State late 2nd Q but then trailed 7-26 HT and Penn St blew it open in the 2H. It wasn't a terrible showing by Ohio. In the 1H they held PSU to a 4th-2, but PSU converted, forced a punt and also got a stopped on downs possession. Ohio had 5 sacks. Not real sure I want to credit ISU a ton on D considering what the Iowa O is right now and the fact that comparibly South Dakota State did the same thing the week prior.
 
Too bad that Notre Dame lost because situationally it hurts a Cal angle. But then again, given that UNLV had ample opportunity to score a go-ahead TD in the 4th doesn't speak too highly of Cal. UNLV D, their D yes, did quite well vs this Cal O. So I can understand this total being so low for a reason. Still, I'd probably actually rate Cal and Notre Dame as close to even teams with ND having just a little more potential on O. Would've been nice if Cal could've snuck up on them.
 
I would feel better about Tulane's chances at Kansas State if Tulane had been better tested so far this season. Going from two complete pushovers to expecting them to fight at K St is a tall order. Kansas St does have OU on deck (primetime Fox kick). And as much as I like K St, which I kind of do not handicapping wise, just kind of a fan of what they have going on - looking from a handicapping perspective, they should've won by much more last week with just 2 TDs in 5 RZ trips. They got 4 Mizzou turnovers, plenty of short fields, should've been more pts. The O ran the ball really well as expected, but for the second straight week I'm left scratching my head at the passing game. It was played in bad weather, so there is that. Not great 3rd down conversion rate, for the second straight week.
 
JRock points out Troy...how many games can App State give an A+ effort in a row? And actually they have James Madison on deck, a historic rival. GameDay on campus? Lots of distractions going on.
 
s--k said:
Probably not an awful time to consider Ohio at Iowa State given that ISU just won the Cyhawk in defeating Iowa for the first time since 2014. Ohio was only down 7-19 vs Penn State late 2nd Q but then trailed 7-26 HT and Penn St blew it open in the 2H. It wasn't a terrible showing by Ohio. In the 1H they held PSU to a 4th-2, but PSU converted, forced a punt and also got a stopped on downs possession. Ohio had 5 sacks. Not real sure I want to credit ISU a ton on D considering what the Iowa O is right now and the fact that comparibly South Dakota State did the same thing the week prior.
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I'll definitely be on them ATS....great thoughts @s--k
 
s--k said:
Bowling Green at Marshall could provide an upset. 1 because Marshall is off one of, if not the biggest upset win in their program's history. 2 while BGSU did lose to Eastern Kentucky, who is a good FCS team, still a black eye, but not an especially bad loss - I think most had rated BGSU as a pretty solidly improved team this season. Likely not an upset I would count on happening had the expected result taken place in South Bend for Marshall, but now, the door might be open a little.
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I will just say this about Stoops and my Cats this weekend…Stoops’ teams always have letdowns…always! And this is a great spot for one vs. Youngstown St. However, we have them too overmatched for a fg upset…after the ht speech from Stoops they’ll get it done and not let an FCS team ruin their season…I might be on YSU 1st half ML myself if offered. ATS 1st half with YSU not a bad wager at all.
 
s--k said:
Bowling Green at Marshall could provide an upset. 1 because Marshall is off one of, if not the biggest upset win in their program's history. 2 while BGSU did lose to Eastern Kentucky, who is a good FCS team, still a black eye, but not an especially bad loss - I think most had rated BGSU as a pretty solidly improved team this season. Likely not an upset I would count on happening had the expected result taken place in South Bend for Marshall, but now, the door might be open a little.
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Are you worried at all about that loss coming in 7 ots for BG?
 
CPA-hole said:
Are you worried at all about that loss coming in 7 ots for BG?
Click to expand...

Definitely not ideal. Think that tied a few other games for 2nd or 3rd longest ever.

BG also stares 0-3 in the face. Marshall is certainly a better team with better players. So it's tough. But what is BG going to do about it. I think I'd side with desperation all out effort as opposed to downtrodden type attitude. It's a really veteran team that had a little taste of success and competitiveness last year. Gut check time vs a team and players that had their biggest win ever. My mentality comes down on BG. They'll just have to overcome the physical dis-advantages- that's where the ND hangover has to help them.
 
Early lines show Villanova+10, YSU+25.5 and Montana St+20.5. Pretty sure the last two are too high. North Dakota St pick'em at Zona by the way.
 
s--k said:
JRock points out Troy...how many games can App State give an A+ effort in a row? And actually they have James Madison on deck, a historic rival. GameDay on campus? Lots of distractions going on.
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They've absolutely steamrolled Troy the last 3 years too. Not that history has any significance, but it would certainly be easy for 20 and 21 year old kids to look ahead.
 
Kiffin might say Troy played them somewhat "tough". Or he might just look inward and say his team didn't play well enough. I know he was not pleased with his offense. So maybe the Ole Miss performance if Kiffin was really upset reflects positively on Troy? Can't take anything from last week on them.
 
Youngstown St. @ Kentucky: Below are two SDQL queries for Mark Stoops. In pic 1, he is 6-0 SU & 2-4 ATS in games after playing Florida. The only 2 games he won ATS were the two smaller spreads. And, if memory serves me correctly, Florida beat us in 2015 & 2020 so both those ATS wins were coming off losses. In pic 2, the query is Mark Stoops as a home favorite after a road win. You'll see he is 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS in his career. Pay particular attention to 1) the 17-3 score at halftime to Murray State...the Racers are literally one of the worst football programs in the nation and we sleepwalked through the 1st half. Eastern Ky actually led us 13-10 at the half in that game...Eastern of course was obviously pumped to play big brother....Youngstown St. will be pumped as well. If you play this game, the plays are the following or nothing at all in my humble opinion. Youngstown St. 1st Half ATS & ML and FG ATS. Good luck in what you decide.

stoops3.jpg

stoops4.jpg
 
s--k said:
Not sure of lines, but on the FCS I would be curious on Villanova at Army and Youngstown State at Kentucky I'm actually near Youngstown but admittedly I don't read or follow the team. Stoops is obviously from Youngstown and there are a couple UK players out of our area. YSU has lots of experience vs bigger FBS teams having played the likes of Penn State and Michigan St, Ohio State. They beat Pitt in 2012 31-17. This appears to be a better than average year for YSU and UK partied like they hadn't beat Florida before. Montana State at Oregon St could be interesting.
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Bob Stoops and the rest of the Stoops family, as well as half the population of Youngstown is going to be in Kentucky for this one. This is the game when they thought Mark Stoops would break Bear Bryant's record for most wins of any coach in Kentucky history, but he he upset the plans by beating Florida last week.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Bob Stoops and the rest of the Stoops family, as well as half the population of Youngstown is going to be in Kentucky for this one. This is the game when they thought Mark Stoops would break Bear Bryant's record for most wins of any coach in Kentucky history, but he he upset the plans by beating Florida last week.
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Oh shit….now you got me worried we might actually lose this one. :oops:
 
The Oregon State / Montana St number has been adjusted down a full TD to 13.5! YSU is the same. 'Nova goes to +13 and North Dakota State moved to -1. Arkansas is hosting Missouri St and that line went from 28.5 to 26.
 
JROCK1966 said:
1st pass thru:

Aubbie
Troy
Vandy
BYU
Colorado St.
N. Texas
Click to expand...
Two more I think I'll take a shot with are Western Ky. and Western Michigan.....I really like the Toppers...I've cooled on FG with Troy & Colorado St....those two will be 1st half ML plays only.

PS - Friday night home conference dogs are auto-plays...adding Wyoming.

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Just looked at Rice….very interesting as this line is wayyy short. Looking forward to your breakdown. :shake:
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Rice. Well...I don't have a breakdown...

I have been against ULL twice this year. I lost both full game bets, won the 1H last week. Also lost a ML on EM last week. Eastern Michigan generally plays in close games and I thought the DD line was good for EM vs a team still putting their pieces together with the new staff and all the players lost from last year. But EM has some things they don't do well...namely they don't run the ball well, haven't in years and they put too much on the QB in this game and the QB threw a bunch of INTs, the EM O went away and was mistake filled after getting up 14-0 and in the end the EM D was just totally exhausted with ULL scoring I think maybe 42 unanswered points.

Credit to ULL, but SE La is way down from last year, or prior recent years. ULL won a kind of ugly low scoring game vs them. Then they were pretty bad in the 1H vs EMich. All of a sudden they exploded after that...is that the real ULL this season then those two quarters as EM was literally giving the game away? Or are they are team more like the prior 6 quarters?

I kind of like that Rice had USC then a scrimage type game last week vs FCS. They weren't awful on offense vs USC, atleast in the 1H, they did throw bunch of INTs (USC famously had 3 pick-sixes vs them) and granted, what just happened with EM vs ULL that makes one pause. Still, Rice moved the ball pretty well on USC in the 1H. Not sure why they couldn't in the 2H, didn't watch. Then they can use last week to iron things out. I'm figuring here in game 3 is going to be pretty good spot for them. Recent history of pulling some upsets, 3 last year including a big one at UAB, 2 in the covid year including a big one at Marshall. ULL doesn't lose, that's a problem. Do they have the nation's longest winning streak now? So ULL doesn't lose, that doesn't help. But they were only 1-3 ATS as road favorites last year, the 3 games they failed to cover all as DD fav, had a total MOV of 11 pts.
 
Just played a 5, 6, 7, & 8-teamer RR with:

N. Texas +121
BYU +137
Vandy +115
Aubbie +126
Western Ky. +194
Texas Tech 1st Half +230
Troy 1st Half +285
Colorado St. 1st Half +400
Risked $94 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $22,341.44

Can't wait for Saturday!

:watchingsports:
 
s--k said:
Rice. Well...I don't have a breakdown...

I have been against ULL twice this year. I lost both full game bets, won the 1H last week. Also lost a ML on EM last week. Eastern Michigan generally plays in close games and I thought the DD line was good for EM vs a team still putting their pieces together with the new staff and all the players lost from last year. But EM has some things they don't do well...namely they don't run the ball well, haven't in years and they put too much on the QB in this game and the QB threw a bunch of INTs, the EM O went away and was mistake filled after getting up 14-0 and in the end the EM D was just totally exhausted with ULL scoring I think maybe 42 unanswered points.

Credit to ULL, but SE La is way down from last year, or prior recent years. ULL won a kind of ugly low scoring game vs them. Then they were pretty bad in the 1H vs EMich. All of a sudden they exploded after that...is that the real ULL this season then those two quarters as EM was literally giving the game away? Or are they are team more like the prior 6 quarters?

I kind of like that Rice had USC then a scrimage type game last week vs FCS. They weren't awful on offense vs USC, atleast in the 1H, they did throw bunch of INTs (USC famously had 3 pick-sixes vs them) and granted, what just happened with EM vs ULL that makes one pause. Still, Rice moved the ball pretty well on USC in the 1H. Not sure why they couldn't in the 2H, didn't watch. Then they can use last week to iron things out. I'm figuring here in game 3 is going to be pretty good spot for them. Recent history of pulling some upsets, 3 last year including a big one at UAB, 2 in the covid year including a big one at Marshall. ULL doesn't lose, that's a problem. Do they have the nation's longest winning streak now? So ULL doesn't lose, that doesn't help. But they were only 1-3 ATS as road favorites last year, the 3 games they failed to cover all as DD fav, had a total MOV of 11 pts.
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This SE LA team is historic Hawaii type bad right now

Very unlike them

Just want to say you are insanely thorough with this shit. Amazing
 
twinkie13 said:
This SE LA team is historic Hawaii type bad right now

Very unlike them

Just want to say you are insanely thorough with this shit. Amazing
Click to expand...

I rely on books and the internet to assist me in so much, I don't want anyone to think I know everything because I definitely don't. Just a decent base to work from some times.

What has made it harder, but more fun this year, is that normally I just and have some basis of understanding on the 130 (now 131) FBS teams, but this year I'm also trying to follow some of the FCS teams and specifically the Ivy League. So it has been very distracting and I've lost touch with many of the FBS teams that I would normally know about in week 3, however I really enjoy learning more about the different teams and I can tell my overall interests are shifting. Upsets and ML dog winners will always been first and foremost in my heart though.
 
Anyone like Da Ville tonight?

FSU has always had a tough time playing on a Thursday/ Friday game and in Louisville as well.
They have not had great success there.
 
s--k said:
I rely on books and the internet to assist me in so much, I don't want anyone to think I know everything because I definitely don't. Just a decent base to work from some times.

What has made it harder, but more fun this year, is that normally I just and have some basis of understanding on the 130 (now 131) FBS teams, but this year I'm also trying to follow some of the FCS teams and specifically the Ivy League. So it has been very distracting and I've lost touch with many of the FBS teams that I would normally know about in week 3, however I really enjoy learning more about the different teams and I can tell my overall interests are shifting. Upsets and ML dog winners will always been first and foremost in my heart though.
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Your posts are must read. Thanks for sharing with all of us.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Anyone like Da Ville tonight?

FSU has always had a tough time playing on a Thursday/ Friday game and in Louisville as well.
They have not had great success there.
Click to expand...

Feels like a ‘Ville win to me. Lots of people love the Noles tonight. Seems like a toss-up worst case scenario, so I’ll ride with the points.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Anyone like Da Ville tonight?

FSU has always had a tough time playing on a Thursday/ Friday game and in Louisville as well.
They have not had great success there.
Click to expand...

Initially I thought I was gonna be on fsu cause I been super impressed w how Travis has improved. You right tho, noles struggle w them and have been gashed by running qbs last year and already by Daniels this year. Apparently ville was trying to keep Cunningham in the pocket, that all they worked on all offseason and we saw how that worked at cuse then the awful 1sg half at ucf. They finally took the leash off him in 2nd half last week and he went nuts.

I played ville 1st half. They been good on their 1st drive in every game, think they will continue to let Cunningham run now, and they should have all the juice being their home opener. I think ville has to win the 1st half to have any shot at winning the game anyways, but I think noles could still beat them if they down at half.
 
Played a couple 2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs with:

Wyoming 1st half & FG
Troy 1st Half
Colorado St. 1st Half
Texas Tech 1st Half
Risked $22 total...$11 on each set of 4.

:cheerleader:
 
I'm a little late to the party, but ML Dogs are what gets me excited about college ball these days.

I am lookin at:

WKU
USA
ODU
NTex
BYU
Vandy
GASO
Kansas
SMU
FLATL


This is a great weekly thread! Thanks Gents for all your feedback and work! Let's get that dough!
 
2daBank said:
Initially I thought I was gonna be on fsu cause I been super impressed w how Travis has improved. You right tho, noles struggle w them and have been gashed by running qbs last year and already by Daniels this year. Apparently ville was trying to keep Cunningham in the pocket, that all they worked on all offseason and we saw how that worked at cuse then the awful 1sg half at ucf. They finally took the leash off him in 2nd half last week and he went nuts.

I played ville 1st half. They been good on their 1st drive in every game, think they will continue to let Cunningham run now, and they should have all the juice being their home opener. I think ville has to win the 1st half to have any shot at winning the game anyways, but I think noles could still beat them if they down at half.
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Do you have a crystal ball, or what? Nice call.
 
VegasMLDogs said:
I'm a little late to the party, but ML Dogs are what gets me excited about college ball these days.

I am lookin at:

WKU
USA
ODU
NTex
BYU
Vandy
GASO
Kansas
SMU
FLATL


This is a great weekly thread! Thanks Gents for all your feedback and work! Let's get that dough!
Click to expand...

I like ku quite a bit, they feel like one these teams we get every year who wins several games as a sizable dog. Nothing I’ve seen from houston has been all that impressive, they havnt found a run gm without the kid from last year, their d front ain’t been nearly as nasty, take dell away and they don’t have much else. I’m pretty confident ku will score points, that enough to at least take the points and winning outright wouldn’t be any huge surprise.

I’d like to hear byu wr’s were gonna play, I had heard doubtful but then read something last night that said there was a chance. I think they need them this week, we see if they can go.
 
M.W. said:
Do you have a crystal ball, or what? Nice call.
Click to expand...

Just a guy who got fucked in the 4th qrtr by ville a bunch of times last year, lol. Novell v satterfiekd was a total halftime mismatch. I thought when Travis got hurt ville would prob win but even that wasn’t enough for satterfield squad, blow it to a backup kid who had hardly played!
 
ummmm...I made a comment last week (on Sunday) about how crazy a Saturday it was and that we might not see another like it....but the more I look into today the more I see several ripe DD dogs....I'm not going to be shocked if any of these teams win today:

USA
Fresno St.
Ark. St.
Texas Tech
Rice
WMU
Colorado St.
Troy
 
JROCK1966 said:
ummmm...I made a comment last week (on Sunday) about how crazy a Saturday it was and that we might not see another like it....but the more I look into today the more I see several ripe DD dogs....I'm not going to be shocked if any of these teams win today:

USA
Fresno St.
Ark. St.
Texas Tech
Rice
WMU
Colorado St.
Troy
Click to expand...
You'd be shocked if UTSA wins? I won't at all. Be much more shocked if S Alabama wins.
 
Last night's game continue the craziness. FSU with the backup, Wyoming, and I know it's way off the radar, but 29.5 dog Merrimack was up 14 mid 4th Q and lost in OT. Not sure crazy ends, but just keeps on going
 
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