Week 3 B1G Thread...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
We're off and running into the 3rd week already. My goodness, I swear we were just starting camps a few days ago!

I digress... I'll start with thoughts from last week of the games I saw some action in and then a few boxscore takes...


I saw a good amount of Kansas and Illinois. This was a where the better team didn't win. The team that executed and stayed away from mistakes enjoyed the victory. This was just a sound win by the fighting Illini vs a ranked team that many (myself included) have higher hopes for. This will be Illinois all year, a team that stays in games and tries to capitalize off mistakes.

The Michigan State offense looked so much different this week. Totally different. Excellent balance and quite aggressive. Now, Chiles has the free reign out there and this will continue to lead to great plays and turnovers as well. For now, they seem content to let him grow on the job. They certainly are not slowing the game down for him. Fun player. I followed the Marsh recruitment quite a bitt and figured this is the next really good MSU WR. Now, this is pretty quick but this constitutes a breakout game in my book. This is a fun duo, no doubt. Carter ran the ball much better as well. The defense is average(or maybe a bit better), as you would expect, but they settled in after a few early Maryland punches. Overall, solid game for Sparty and a big road win. Maryland and Edwards played solid but the running game couldn't stay consistent like the first week. Part of that is Sparty playing solid, for sure. This is Maryland though, they have reached their football heights in this conference.

I know we have a few MSU guys roaming the forum... Here is my thought... Suppose Chiles and Marsh continue to grow and excel? Do you worry about the big boy schools hitting them up in Free Agency? I also randomly caught some interesting info a few weeks ago with regards to Sparty and a money guy, More on that when recruiting season heats up.

The Penn State game was baffling. They couldn't make a stop that 1st half it seemed like. They were outgained pretty well in that first half. Yes they won, but this wasn't some dominant 2h surge. They needed every point and then a pick 6. I am very curious to see their next few games. Granted, WVU moved the ball a bit, but this was just unexpected.

Boise really ran the ball well on Oregon. The Ducks, while still able to score quickly, do not seem to be as persistently overwhelming on offense like in past years. Turnovers, penalties and the lack of yards per carry are the early ailments. Ducks lucky to get a win, to be honest.

I was trying not to watch too much of the Cy Hawk battle. That is just a tough watch, even for a guy that likes old-school manball. The first TD drive by ISU was so big, to let them know they had a chance. That following Iowa score usually is the end of things though -- but one play and 75 yards can change many a game. Good win college football. Why? We need Iowa to lose a few so they don't slip into the playoff. No one needs to be spending the Holidays watching Cade side-arm 8 foot passes.

Rutgers really started off slowly, again. I had changed my position from full-game to 1st half once the steam hit. Frankly, that was a lucky 1st half cover. That started the onslaught though, as Rutgers went wild in the 2h again. This could be a trend? At least vs lesser teams. Noted.

Nebraska was one of my initial big leans for TT's and side. As the numbers got away from me I decided to watch and hope to jump on something in-game. Tooo late, they absolutely destroyed a bad Colorado team. This one may be worse than last year. Nebraska football this year is absolutely beautiful to watch. Excellent mix on offense and the Blackshirts starting to make some noise. Great atmosphere Saturday night!

Washington started slow, but won pretty easily. EMU did what they do, cover as a dog. Will Rogers with a VERY efficient 4 TD and 21-26 outing.

I know most of the forum faded Wisconsin. That 14-0 start had to have ruffled a few feathers. That was it though, as Dakota battled back to make this a competitive one. Wisconsin got a lot of guys involved in the running game.

I didn't see any of the Ohio State game. They jumped right on WMU from the start and never let up. I know many bettors were very happy with this game. The yardage was 683-99. Absolutely a dominant performance. Jeremiah Smith already excelling in his first two games. I cannot find anything to complain about in this box.

I fell asleep during the USC game -- This was just a thrashing. The running numbers are what should really make fans excited. Now, we honestly won't know about this defense in totality for awhile. The schedule features some very average offensive teams for the next little bit. I now think with this ability to build into the season that USC could be a but better record-wise than expected. Either way, they have a week of rest before heading to A2 for their next game.

Lastly, let us talk about 'that game'. There was a reason I didn't push to go down to Ann Arbor for that game. I had planned on this for years, but frankly I had a bad feeling all off-season about this game. Now, did I expect that? Of course not. I thought the defense would be able to contain somewhat for a half at least. Nope. Here is the thing -- Texas has the best OL in the country, a Heisman QB perhaps and went out and grabbed great talent at WR in the free agency period. This team also has guy that want to avenge post-season failure. Watching the 1st half, with the run game especially was basically like watching '21 and '22 Michigan. I simply have to admire it. Now,, we'll see if that defense can rise to the occasion vs a real offense -- but this is a team that is in the conversation for a National Championship.

Some quick UM tidbits --

The QB situation isn't pretty. We knew that coming into the spring. Yes, winning a championship was great but that also negated the portal period in the winter for shopping a QB (pro decisions and coaching decisions as well). There wasn't much out there in the spring, but they could have least tried to bring someone else in. Too bad Tuttle got hurt, because he would be solid to at least game-manage. I don't hate Warren, but he hasn't had the reps and without big WR's, this is a tall task.

Why did Wink wait till halftime to make adjustments? No clue. He told FOX crew at halftime that he planned on changing things up at halftime. Uh, too late bub.

Michigan by all accounts (insiders on team sites and true insiders that post) had a creative gameplan but ditched it with the early deficit. Why? The 33-22 pass to run ratio certainly wasn't a better option. None of that would have mattered, except keeping a closer game for a bit longer.

Now, this team needs to get back to fundamentals on both sides. The 18 new starters need to communicate better and stay true to their assignments.

Their is still a shitload of talent on defense. I know that Texas OL humbled them, but now is the time to recommit to being that dominant DL. You have one prep game and then have to live up to expectations in two weeks at 3:30 pm eastern. This is a honeymoon year, but that is basically a must win with this schedule looking even harder.

Oh, stop forcing Don as an every-down back. I want 18-20 touches but that needs to be in a variety of situations including catching the ball. Let Kalel Mullings carry the ball before mid-2nd quarter. He is Haskins, let him EAT!


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Week #3 is here!


Alabama heading to Madison is quite fun. I'll be keeping track of the SEC thread by @gps_3 before making any decisions here. This is a hefty tariff on the road, but Wisconsin isn't exactly putting a lot of fear into anyone...

Initial lean in the Michigan game would be to an over... I see @bookieassassin like's that as well... good company...

I'll read up more on CMU, otherwise that game provides very little to me right now...

Oregon is laying 16.5 or so in the September Civil War. With the struggles of these first few weeks, this seems a but high?

Notre Dame off the huge upset is back in the thick of it renewing the rivalry with Purdue. Anxious to read @PaintCrew here. He seems to like the early start for the Boilers!

Nevada and Minnesota tickets are as low as 11 dollars.

Apple Cup also in September. This is simply weird. I know our guy @jimmymo has a big opinion here. Check his thread!

Iowa looks to bounce back vs Troy. This is a 22.5 and 39 game. Ugly, yup. Heck, the Troy team total will be around 7.5. Yikes.

Layup game for the Huskers. A good time to work in some other guys. This has to be a nice feeling right @huss @cubsker @Colin Wynner ?

Indiana and UCLA in a basketball blue bloods of yesteryear. I'm glad to see the Hoosiers play a real team, or whatever UCLA is claiming themselves to be. The Bruins snuck one out vs Hwaii a few weeks ago. This type of game honestly should give us good feedback on these squads.

Maryland is a slight road fav at Virginia. Intriguing game here to be honest. This total is mid-50's right now. Is that high? Or should we see plenty of tempo?

I failed to mention N'western up top so I'll give them a shout-out down here... Eastern Illinois comes to town after that classic Friday night in the Academic Bowl. Who cares?



TALK TO ME!
 
I was really surprised Gabriel had like 6 pass attempts until the 4th Q. And there was one series where they were behind the sticks and ran it in 2nd and 12 and like 3rd and 14. Even the announcers were WTF. This OL has major issues. Shouldn’t be an issue the next few weeks, but they’ll lose by double digits to OSU if they don’t get it right

I laid the 2 with the Terps. Not sold at all on uva. And Maryland just got beat by a few really good Chiles throws. Cavs don’t have that at QB. Also needed a 14-0 4Q to beat a below avg wake team. Nova on deck for Terps, so should come out firing after the upset L to get back on track
 
I was really surprised Gabriel had like 6 pass attempts until the 4th Q. And there was one series where they were behind the sticks and ran it in 2nd and 12 and like 3rd and 14. Even the announcers were WTF. This OL has major issues. Shouldn’t be an issue the next few weeks, but they’ll lose by double digits to OSU if they don’t get it right

I laid the 2 with the Terps. Not sold at all on uva. And Maryland just got beat by a few really good Chiles throws. Cavs don’t have that at QB. Also needed a 14-0 4Q to beat a below avg wake team. Nova on deck for Terps, so should come out firing after the upset L to get back on track
Wow, half his passes were in the 4th looking through it. So odd.

Good notes, appreciate these!
 
Ducks returned a punt and a kickoff for TDs, I think, so Oregon just didn't have the ball much.

In Lincoln, I'd really like to see them air it out and see what Raiola can do in the pass game if he has to throw it 40 times. Bound to be a letdown a bit on the defensive side as Colorado was a YUGE game for us. Hopefully, we play so many guys that we stay energized there. I'd imagine starters will be out of there in the 3rd quarter if possible. Short week the following week with Illinois coming to town for a Friday night game. (yuck)
 
Maryland had two opportunities to go up by 10 in the 4th quarter and a TO and missed FG nixed those opportunities. MSU front 7 on D played well and won the battle up front and were able to negate the MD rushing game to a large extent. Credit to Chiles and Marsh for hooking up on some huge plays that were the difference in the game. This was a game I felt MD should have won despite being out statted in the box score. Very tough loss and accentuates how critical it is to cash in your opportunities when they are there. MD OL is inexperienced and will need to improve if they are going to compete against the better teams in the conference. Their secondary especially at CB is also inexperienced, and they learned a big lesson vs. MSU and Chiles. I think Billy Edwards is really playing well, and Tai Felton has had a couple excellent games to start the season. This offense can produce, but they have to get better consistency in the running game.

Watched a lot of the Oregon game and was surprised they were not more up tempo. I think they only ended up running 56 plays which surprised me. Very impressed with Jeanty, really a nice back. Boise needs some improvement in their pass offense, but I thought they played well.
 
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As one who has watched every play of Ducks games for the last 2 years and this year (my son is a junior there), I am a bit concerned about the o-line play. They don’t seem cohesive and aren’t holding up against inferior d-lines. Gabriel has looked pretty good, but it feels like he is lacking familiarity with the weapons he has on the outside. James and Whittington are excellent backs, but if the line isn’t creating the holes, they will continue to get bottled up.
The Idaho game was just so strange to watch, as I don’t know that Gabriel threw the ball more than 20 yards in the air more than once or twice all game. He let it go a bit more in the Boise game, and they worked for a few good chunk plays. I would guess that Lanning will start taking more downfield shots to Tez, Evan Stewart and Holden; along with his safety net in Ferguson. The line will have to hold up better than it has the past 2 games.
My guess is a “Civil War” matchup might refocus this team on both sides of the ball; now, whether they cover more than 2 TD’s on the road might be a tough ask, especially with conference play on deck; but I would expect a much better showing from both the O and the D in this game.
 
As one who has watched every play of Ducks games for the last 2 years and this year (my son is a junior there), I am a bit concerned about the o-line play. They don’t seem cohesive and aren’t holding up against inferior d-lines. Gabriel has looked pretty good, but it feels like he is lacking familiarity with the weapons he has on the outside. James and Whittington are excellent backs, but if the line isn’t creating the holes, they will continue to get bottled up.
The Idaho game was just so strange to watch, as I don’t know that Gabriel threw the ball more than 20 yards in the air more than once or twice all game. He let it go a bit more in the Boise game, and they worked for a few good chunk plays. I would guess that Lanning will start taking more downfield shots to Tez, Evan Stewart and Holden; along with his safety net in Ferguson. The line will have to hold up better than it has the past 2 games.
My guess is a “Civil War” matchup might refocus this team on both sides of the ball; now, whether they cover more than 2 TD’s on the road might be a tough ask, especially with conference play on deck; but I would expect a much better showing from both the O and the D in this game.

Good info Jdogg...

I missed the Idaho game but those short passes make sense with the 41-49 stat line ..

I'm assuming coach understand the OL issues -- hence the quick short passes week #1 and the lack of pass attempts the first 3 quarters last week.
 
Maryland had two opportunities to go up by 10 in the 4th quarter and a TO and missed FG nixed those opportunities. MSU front 7 on D played well and won the battle up front and were able to negate the MD rushing game to a large extent. Credit to Chiles and Marsh for hooking up on some huge plays that were the difference in the game. This was a game I felt MD should have won despite being out statted in the box score. Very tough loss and accentuates how critical it is to cash in your opportunities when they are there. MD OL is inexperienced and will need to improve if they are going to compete against the better teams in the conference. Their secondary especially at CB is also inexperienced, and they learned a big lesson vs. MSU and Chiles. I think Billy Edwards is really playing well, and Tai Felton has had a couple excellent games to start the season. This offense can produce, but they have to get better consistency in the running game.

Watched a lot of the Oregon game and was surprised they were not more up tempo. I think they only ended up running 56 plays which surprised me. Very impressed with Jeanty, really a nice back. Boise needs some improvement in their pass offense, but I thought they played well.

On Oregon -- 56 plays is not their recipe. I'm thinking maybe this is a bit purposeful with the OL issues? As noted above two posts ago...

Maryland definitely blew this game. MSU played well, but this game was on the platter for Mary for quite awhile.
 
What is anyone's opinion of the 2024 Northwestern team? They play Eastern Illinois this week who got blown out 45-0 at Illinois week 1. NW doesn't come across as a team that does much blowing out of anyone.
 
What is anyone's opinion of the 2024 Northwestern team? They play Eastern Illinois this week who got blown out 45-0 at Illinois week 1. NW doesn't come across as a team that does much blowing out of anyone.
whats the line ? i wouldn't play eastern illinois at any number. that team looks like complete garbage - and they played lindenwood last year to a close game - both those teams just gave up wide open passes in the flat that are plays to defend you don't even need alot of talent. honestly not sure how you can watch that brand of football. same goes with sac state and some of these teams.

northwestern isn't that far off from illinois. illinois got bullied by kansas imo on the lines - bad playcalling just kind of killed them. don't see illinois that improved and not more then 7 points better then nw, imo
 
like indiana this week - feel much improved and ucla just looks bad

oregon theoroetically should win by 30 - oregon state is very weak. ......not sure whats going on there, haven't put on any oregon tape.

wisconsin isn't good but i don't think bama is either - think they can hang
 
Never thought I would see Sparty -40.5 to anyone this year. PVA&M has a very good fg kicker so do expect a few pts from them.
Michigan needs to find themselves in a hurry, USC on deck. Not liking Wink's defense so far.
Thinking Irish handle Purdue after NIU wakeup call.
And going with Bama in Madison, but that's a lot of points. Wisky looks like a team that would wilt in a tough game.
Not so sure about Indy out west, better coached yet Bruins a home dog off a bye....hmmm.
 
Not going to have time to do a full post but quick hitters on Purdue/ND. I played +15 last week before ND/NIU. My original target was 10 points or more so not going to add ATS to the 2 units i've already got out there. I'll grab some props though and snag the ML for sure.

With that being said some notes in Purdue's favor IMO vs the market expectations:
  • Purdue's O'Line i believe is Power 4 legit for the first time in 10+ years as I've noted before and comes with legitimate size. Very similar size to NIU's O'Line that had a lot of success against ND's front 7
  • The talent is obviously there on ND with a ton of experience in there front 7 but to really disrupt this Purdue offense you have to get to Card. ND 1 sack in their first 2 games....i have optimism Purdue's O'Line can do "enough" to give Card "enough" time but this is still one of the biggest wild cards of the bunch that will determine likely how this game goes pretty quickly one way or another
  • Purdue's WRs have big time size (3 starters are all 6'3) and includes what I think is a true WR1 in Jahmal Edrine (see prop reference in my thread here soon) who I think can hold there own against the ultra talented ND DBs. While that backfield is impressive I did see plenty of A&M receivers open in the first week where they just didn't have a capable QB to make use of them IMO....
  • On the other side of the ball Walters D is all about taking away the run and having talented enough DBs to make beating 1 on 1 coverage fairly tough to go with the all american safety valve to clean up a few of the big plays. It makes Purdue very susceptable to the big pass play but is this version of Riley Leonard good enough to take advantage? Maybe....but feels like a lot to ask
For the ND advantages i see (besides obvious overall talent)
  • I have concerns on Purdue's front 4 and a bit on the LBs as well as i'm not sure Jenkins position move to LB is really taking hold yet. He seemed a bit slow/uncomfortable out there in week 1. Even with the issues on that ND o'line I would expect them to hold there own given the talent advantage.
  • Purdue's top CB (Green) is still out so Purdue will be shy a bit on those DBs covering much more talented WRs
  • Running out of time obviously there is plenty more.....

Long story short I'm very cautiously optimistic about this Purdue team vs expectations (although the schedule is absolutely brutal) and I really do think matchup wise given the perceived issues at QB for ND their D'line that i'm not sure can get home enough to shut down Card and company, plus Walters D that i think is tailor made for this version of ND gives me a ton of hope here.

We'll see how valid it is tomorrow

For props i'm taking Edrine over 35 or so yards for a good clip. Purdue used him in a bunch of bubble screens plus a couple shots downfield in week 1. I don't see how he doesn't get 6/7 targets at a minimum (IF and only IF purdues O'line really does hold like i think/hope). He is Purdue's true WR1 and has a shot at a bit of a coming out party here. I'll also grab some first TD props for Edrine and then the big 6'4 TE (Klare) for some pizza money at 20-1 or so

Enjoy!
 
UM thoughts ...

Definitely some issues on both sides of the ball that need to be cleaned up. They best figure some of that out right now as a big game on deck next week. That match is suddenly much tougher.

Arky St should be the perfect anecdote.

Personal prediction here is 34-13 type of game.

Honestly cannot recommend any bets other than the Loveland prop that @survive&advance posted in the props thread.

I've tossed around many ideas all week but no need to force bets at all.
 
I'll have plays here and there in the in game. Been ill past few weeks. Hope you're doing well man.
Ya buddy all is well! Just trying to get a read on a few teams including my Packers. Still can’t believe the Love injury. Find it hilarious that they are trying to fool people into thinking he might/could play lol.
 
Ya buddy all is well! Just trying to get a read on a few teams including my Packers. Still can’t believe the Love injury. Find it hilarious that they are trying to fool people into thinking he might/could play lol.

Glad you're well. Terrible injury, at least it's not season ending. The pack will be okay I think.
 
Not going to have time to do a full post but quick hitters on Purdue/ND. I played +15 last week before ND/NIU. My original target was 10 points or more so not going to add ATS to the 2 units i've already got out there. I'll grab some props though and snag the ML for sure.

With that being said some notes in Purdue's favor IMO vs the market expectations:
  • Purdue's O'Line i believe is Power 4 legit for the first time in 10+ years as I've noted before and comes with legitimate size. Very similar size to NIU's O'Line that had a lot of success against ND's front 7
  • The talent is obviously there on ND with a ton of experience in there front 7 but to really disrupt this Purdue offense you have to get to Card. ND 1 sack in their first 2 games....i have optimism Purdue's O'Line can do "enough" to give Card "enough" time but this is still one of the biggest wild cards of the bunch that will determine likely how this game goes pretty quickly one way or another
  • Purdue's WRs have big time size (3 starters are all 6'3) and includes what I think is a true WR1 in Jahmal Edrine (see prop reference in my thread here soon) who I think can hold there own against the ultra talented ND DBs. While that backfield is impressive I did see plenty of A&M receivers open in the first week where they just didn't have a capable QB to make use of them IMO....
  • On the other side of the ball Walters D is all about taking away the run and having talented enough DBs to make beating 1 on 1 coverage fairly tough to go with the all american safety valve to clean up a few of the big plays. It makes Purdue very susceptable to the big pass play but is this version of Riley Leonard good enough to take advantage? Maybe....but feels like a lot to ask
For the ND advantages i see (besides obvious overall talent)
  • I have concerns on Purdue's front 4 and a bit on the LBs as well as i'm not sure Jenkins position move to LB is really taking hold yet. He seemed a bit slow/uncomfortable out there in week 1. Even with the issues on that ND o'line I would expect them to hold there own given the talent advantage.
  • Purdue's top CB (Green) is still out so Purdue will be shy a bit on those DBs covering much more talented WRs
  • Running out of time obviously there is plenty more.....

Long story short I'm very cautiously optimistic about this Purdue team vs expectations (although the schedule is absolutely brutal) and I really do think matchup wise given the perceived issues at QB for ND their D'line that i'm not sure can get home enough to shut down Card and company, plus Walters D that i think is tailor made for this version of ND gives me a ton of hope here.

We'll see how valid it is tomorrow

For props i'm taking Edrine over 35 or so yards for a good clip. Purdue used him in a bunch of bubble screens plus a couple shots downfield in week 1. I don't see how he doesn't get 6/7 targets at a minimum (IF and only IF purdues O'line really does hold like i think/hope). He is Purdue's true WR1 and has a shot at a bit of a coming out party here. I'll also grab some first TD props for Edrine and then the big 6'4 TE (Klare) for some pizza money at 20-1 or so

Enjoy!
Well i clearly didn't see the most embarassing regular season loss in Ross Ade history (and I’ve seen a lot of them) coming....

So much to unpack that i'm concerned with overreacting the other direction and playing Oregon St saturday.

I know the talent out there was not as lopsided as the asswhooping that happened so I'm left with seeing almost zero hope now in this staff. At a football place like Purdue you have to take risks at times with up and comers or those without HC experience and now I'm left questioning Walters ability to put together a staff if he allowed Kane to simply continue to ask the entire front 7 to crash the middle over and over while ND simply trotted to and around Purdue on the edge.

The move of Jenkins from edge rusher to middle LB now looks completely laughable to the point you have to question everything...he just doesn't have the speed at that position to be a + defender where he did on the edge to go with his power. How that wasn't obvious to the staff is just mind boggling....

Back to thinking about basketball season...had no idea we had hired Darrell Hazell 2.0.....disgusting
 
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Boilermakers just caught the Irish at exactly the wrong time. ND beats Texas A&M and then thought they just needed to showup for NIU. Cannot imagine how practice went after that. And the beatdown was much worse than I thought it would be.

Yeah that #4 was exposed sideline to sideline.
 
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