WEEK 2

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT

Herd P
EMich +21
TTech +7
Irish -7
Maryland -24'
Vandy +10'
Rice +10'
Baylor +7'
FAU -3/4
Bama -7

smaller

Nebraska +3
Ark St +21
Illinois +3'
Purdue +3/ML
SMiss +31
Okie St -2'
UMass +7
Hawaii -9'
S Illinois +7
Furman +16'
Virginia +1' 2H
Texas A&M -2'
NC Central +6
Ole Miss -6 2H


leans

SMU 1H
UCONN
GASO
Jax St
Zona
A&M
Ole Miss




Idea is to :

* View / handicap week 1 games with next week in mind (it matters) > maintain a BIG PICTURE frame of mind.
* Have an idea of what teams you might like week 2 - focus on key factors (for week 2 matchup) as you watch this week's games
* Most importantly - BE READY when week 2 lines are posted

Numbers are decent IMO - not mine alone, but Bill C's + Vegas - fine tuned with mine > then ESPN's FPI > Collin Wilson's (Action N). FCS from VSIN mostly > LY's Sagarin > Massey

POINTS OF DISCUSSION? - where line might open > which way will it move > where will it close. Plus leans of your own of course.


Looking forward to this week - damn week 1 lines were up at FD in FEBRUARY or so?.



THURS 9/7

MURRAY STATE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
LOUISVILLE -45


FRI 9/8

INDIANA STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
INDIANA -30

ILLINOIS -3
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
KANSAS
* I > @ Penn St

STONY BROOK
RHODE ISLAND -20


SAT 9/9


IDAHO
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
NEVADA -6
*N @USC / Kansas

OHIO
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -6
* FAU > @ CLEMSON

TENNESSEE TECH
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
NEW MEXICO -13

UC DAVIS
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
OREGON STATE -24

CINCINNATI
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
PITTSBURGH -6

MEMPHIS -14
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
ARKANSAS STATE

CAL POLY
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
SAN JOSE STATE -32

UCLA -14
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
SAN DIEGO STATE

IDAHO STATE
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
UTAH STATE -27

APPALACHIAN STATE
P: 2:15PM C: 4:15PM E: 5:15PM
NORTH CAROLINA -20'

ALBANY
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
HAWAII -16

UAB
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
GEORGIA SOUTHERN -1'
* GS > @ Wisky

EASTERN WASHINGTON
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
FRESNO STATE -28

HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
WESTERN KENTUCKY -48

VANDERBILT
P: 8:00AM C: 10:00AM E: 11:00AM
WAKE FOREST -9'

EASTERN MICHIGAN
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
MINNESOTA -21
* M- Neb / UNC

DELAWARE
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
PENN STATE -40

AIR FORCE -10
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
SAM HOUSTON
* SH @BYU/bye

TROY
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
KANSAS STATE -13?
* K > @ Mizzou

WESTERN MICHIGAN
P: TBD C: TBD E: TBD
SYRACUSE -23

YOUNGSTOWN STATE
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
OHIO STATE -45

MORGAN STATE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
AKRON -26

BALL STATE
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
GEORGIA -42

DUQUESNE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
WEST VIRGINIA -42

JAMES MADISON
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
VIRGINIA -2

NORTH TEXAS -8'
P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

HOLY CROSS
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
BOSTON COLLEGE -12'
* BC > @ Fla St

MIDDLE TENNESSEE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
MISSOURI -23
* MTS- off Bama
M > Kan St

UTAH -5
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
BAYLOR

TEXAS
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
ALABAMA -8'

NOTRE DAME -8'
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
NC STATE

FLORIDA A&M
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
SOUTH FLORIDA -18

NEBRASKA -13
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
COLORADO

ARIZONA
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE -12'
* M > LSU > @ SC > Bama

PURDUE -5
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
VIRGINIA TECH

CHARLOTTE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
MARYLAND -35


DELAWARE STATE
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
ARMY -42

LAMAR
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
UL MONROE -28

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
GEORGIA TECH -38

OKLAHOMA STATE -4
P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM
ARIZONA STATE

NEW HAMPSHIRE
P: 10:30AM C: 12:30PM E: 1:30PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -16

AUSTIN PEAY
P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM
TENNESSEE -35

EASTERN ILLINOIS
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
BOWLING GREEN -22

FORDHAM
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
BUFFALO -16'?

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN
P: 11:15AM C: 1:15PM E: 2:15PM
CLEMSON -52

LOUISIANA -9'
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
OLD DOMINION

SOUTHERN UTAH
P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM
BYU -33

LAFAYETTE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
DUKE -42

EASTERN KENTUCKY
P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM
KENTUCKY -32

NEW MEXICO STATE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
LIBERTY -13

RICHMOND
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
MICHIGAN STATE -20

SMU
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
OKLAHOMA -16'

TEXAS A&M -5
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
MIAMI

JACKSONVILLE STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
COASTAL CAROLINA -15

UTEP
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
NORTHWESTERN -10

UCONN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
GEORGIA STATE -8

UNLV
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
MICHIGAN -40

UCF -6'
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
BOISE STATE

OLE MISS -6'
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
TULANE

NORTHWESTERN STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
LOUISIANA TECH -28

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3
*NI @BC/@Neb

HOUSTON -9 ??
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
RICE
* H UTSA/TCU
R - off TX

IOWA -1'
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
IOWA STATE

OREGON -3
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
TEXAS TECH

TEXAS SOUTHERN
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
TOLEDO -35'

GRAMBLING
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
LSU -60

MIAMI (OH) -8'
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
UMASS
* Miami @Mia,F / @Cinn

WISCONSIN -*13
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
WASHINGTON STATE

TEXAS STATE
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
UTSA -24

TEMPLE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
RUTGERS -7

WAGNER
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
NAVY -50

MCNEESE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
FLORIDA -44

MARSHALL -5
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
EAST CAROLINA
* M > BYE
EC Mich/AppSt

FURMAN
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
SOUTH CAROLINA -26

PORTLAND STATE
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
WYOMING -25

NICHOLLS
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
TCU -45

KENT STATE
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
ARKANSAS -38

SOUTHERN MISS
P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM
FLORIDA STATE -34
* F off LSU

SE LOUISIANA
P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM
SOUTH ALABAMA -15

STANFORD
P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM
USC -*40

TULSA
P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM
WASHINGTON -35
*W Boise/ @SPARTY

AUBURN -7
P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM
CALIFORNIA



LEANS

BAYLOR
HERD
Okie St
PITT
Vandy
Wisky
A&M
Troy
OLE MISS
E MICH
UTEP
Rice
Arizona
NMX ST
Ga SO
BAMA
TERPS
-----

Nevada
Holy Cross
Richmond
 
Last edited:
thanks BA. Amazing the amount of work you put in. Much appreciated for sharing.

I bet Texas +6.5 -115 vs Bama at BOL awhile ago. BOL been holding it there for months now and doesn't allow buy up to 7. Would love to see the 8.5 you list. I played the 6.5 thinking it will likely go down? Bama replacing the 1,2 and 12 picks this year and Young obviously huge. At this point, gotta think Texas will have the better QB on the field. thanks again
 
Albany w the best road stint in CFB goin @Marsh, @Hawaii .. (O)(O) .. seemed like they didn't mean to do that I think Marsh was a late paycheck add .. Hawaii will be excited to romp their way to 2-0 .. Bows by 20+ ..

Have to make sure NM doesn't show up in bodycasts after that AM drubbin but Tenn Tech w travellin up 4000+ feet .. UAB OC/HC startin a new job and while ya got NMSU on deck I'd say 2nd week on the job vs an FCS team isin't the best dick around spot ... better throttle those guys .. baaad.

S.Car w one of the nastiest spots lol think the Cocks will definitely have their pants down to start this one .. those little S.Car teams really do not like each other and I'll betcha they don't like the big teams either ..

Idaho flat out beats Nevada .. EASY ..

Think we can call Liberty / NMSU a revenge spot? lol ..

I suspect K-State won't be dickin around with any G5 teams this year but yeah Kansas Mizzoo on deck has that real bad blood smell to it ... maybe lose just to motivate em for a B12 champ run again ..

T-Tech gets in a sluggerooski up in Laramie and comes back just a little off balance and might be a Guinness Book of World Records game for most unforced fumbles ..
 
lvmike32 said:
thanks BA. Amazing the amount of work you put in. Much appreciated for sharing.

I bet Texas +6.5 -115 vs Bama at BOL awhile ago. BOL been holding it there for months now and doesn't allow buy up to 7. Would love to see the 8.5 you list. I played the 6.5 thinking it will likely go down? Bama replacing the 1,2 and 12 picks this year and Young obviously huge. At this point, gotta think Texas will have the better QB on the field. thanks again
Click to expand...

I dunno which way that one goes ....
>> I would think it just bounces back and forth from 6/6'/7 - an occasional and BRIEF 7' maybe

If it drops, I'll be on BAMA probably - > Sark can't prepare his team on the road, so this is a really tall order. The Horns are the hyped team - BAMA is coming in with the chip on their shoulder. Surely Game Day too.

Sark has taken his teams on the road 46X - he's managed to win 16X SU, covering 19. At Texas he's had 9 road games - he's won and covered 3. His teams are soft.

BOL this year buddy
 
Bridge1 said:
Albany w the best road stint in CFB goin @Marsh, @Hawaii .. (O)(O) .. seemed like they didn't mean to do that I think Marsh was a late paycheck add .. Hawaii will be excited to romp their way to 2-0 .. Bows by 20+ ..

Have to make sure NM doesn't show up in bodycasts after that AM drubbin but Tenn Tech w travellin up 4000+ feet .. UAB OC/HC startin a new job and while ya got NMSU on deck I'd say 2nd week on the job vs an FCS team isin't the best dick around spot ... better throttle those guys .. baaad.

S.Car w one of the nastiest spots lol think the Cocks will definitely have their pants down to start this one .. those little S.Car teams really do not like each other and I'll betcha they don't like the big teams either ..

Idaho flat out beats Nevada .. EASY ..

Think we can call Liberty / NMSU a revenge spot? lol ..

I suspect K-State won't be dickin around with any G5 teams this year but yeah Kansas Mizzoo on deck has that real bad blood smell to it ... maybe lose just to motivate em for a B12 champ run again ..

T-Tech gets in a sluggerooski up in Laramie and comes back just a little off balance and might be a Guinness Book of World Records game for most unforced fumbles ..
Click to expand...

Definitely will be looking at those Paladins - 14-3 ATS vs FBS !

Vandals maybe should be favored - tough to put a number on Nevada - I kinda guessed at that one ha

TT blows out Wyoming - I'll be on Oregon probably - struggle or lose, maybe TT

Great work man BOL ........... :shake:
 
bookieassassin said:
I dunno which way that one goes ....
>> I would think it just bounces back and forth from 6/6'/7 - an occasional and BRIEF 7' maybe

If it drops, I'll be on BAMA probably - > Sark can't prepare his team on the road, so this is a really tall order. The Horns are the hyped team - BAMA is coming in with the chip on their shoulder. Surely Game Day too.

Sark has taken his teams on the road 46X - he's managed to win 16X SU, covering 19. At Texas he's had 9 road games - he's won and covered 3. His teams are soft.

BOL this year buddy
Click to expand...
Thanks BA. I should know better than to bet my own thoughts lol. I tail ur picks so ill probably get off bama. My thought process was pretty simple. Bama wasn't dominate last year and lose those 3 t12 picks. But i cant argue vs Sark being totally overrated. Thanks
 
lvmike32 said:
Thanks BA. I should know better than to bet my own thoughts lol. I tail ur picks so ill probably get off bama. My thought process was pretty simple. Bama wasn't dominate last year and lose those 3 t12 picks. But i cant argue vs Sark being totally overrated. Thanks
Click to expand...


didn't mean to rip your pick ha......

just thinking out loud/ being the biggest anti-hype guy on earth.....Horns make sense and might win SU - just don't trust them in Tuscaloosa just yet - Bama should come out with serious attitude here.
 
bookieassassin said:
didn't mean to rip your pick ha......

just thinking out loud/ being the biggest anti-hype guy on earth.....Horns make sense and might win SU - just don't trust them in Tuscaloosa just yet - Bama should come out with serious attitude here.
Click to expand...
No worries rip away lol. I dont cap and know im a long-term loser on my own plays.

Never liked sark or lane going back to their days as oc at USC. Every year Carroll would lose some game they were heavy favorite in. And i always thought it came down to stupid play calling. Carroll should've won 3 or 4 nattys with talent he had there..

Im off game. We'll see how things move from here

Thanks again for all your help.
 
love those week two look ahead lines. only way to do it is to forcast what the next weeks line SHOULD be, or SHOULD open at, and pivot/fire away after they are up on sunday at 11am central...

have to take louisville IMO, they will blow the doors off the racers in that "in state affair" 66-13 or so...murray state is really bad and is moving up ...i mean waaaay up in class. they are going to get worn down and are a team to fade throughout the season in my opinion.

Indiana state/indiana...all depends on how the ohio state game goes. if they lose 52-14 they are pissed and take it out on the sycamores...if they lose 31-27 throwing into the endzone as time expires maybe they dont care and come out flat in week2....sycs hang around a while...

same for illinois/KU...IU with hope date with penn state on deck...very intersting to see how they prepare for the jayhawks.

Nevada, yeah idaho might mess around and win that game. or they could be the same ole SOFT fcs idaho we have come accustomed to seeing, although last year they hung toe to toe with wazzu...no reason they cant do that in reno...seems like they found some intestinal fortitude last season, and with this game being the 1st of back to back against FBS, perhaps they empty the chamber in this game before getting their doors blown off against the golden bears.

new mexico...has to beat Tennessee tech by more than 2 tds...right?

UC Davis can bring it...and do they, beavers did well in this spot last year dismantling montana state

Cinci/pitt...slugfest

memphis/ark state...score fest. give me the over...no matter what it is

cal poly/jose...jose come up for air after a brutal two game opening stretch...poly played well last year againts fresno with haener...wouldnt be shocked at all to see jose win by 28 and NOT cover.

utah state...lay it, for the only time this year. bengals are woeful again.

UNC/APpy...same song and dance for appy, compete against p5 competition for 4 quarters...

hawaii...on the island. will they be coming off a big win against stanford? albany brutal travel spot after going to marshall the week before...(not super long, are they bussing it to huntington and back??) either way ill be up till 3AM watching on spectrum sportsnet...i assure you of that.

uab/gata...seems like a great spot to play the eagles here.

wky/hou baptist...HBU to run slower pace this year...run the ball more, chew clock...could be a big number to cover...or wku could be up 49-6 at halftime...

EMU/Minnesota...just gimme the green eagles +21 and ask arizona state how that worked out....

akron/morgan state...i want to love akron. i do. just seems like every year this is a game they win by 9 pulling away late...and people look up the number and say -26, what the fugg was that. morgan state is a bad meac squad

ball state/gaw-gaw...how high will they set this line? could be a UGA flat spot, or maybe they play everyone on the roster to see what they have

james madison/uva...just gimme the dukes...big bro vs little bro...JMU will certainly bring it...im sure they have this one circled on the calendar in red ink

UNT...will flat out mess around with FIU and maybe lose.

holy cross + BC...is BC coming off a squeaker vs the huskies...this game means nothing to the eagles, and everything to HC...great QB and rb coming back for the cruisaiders...saw them play live in the playoffs at Sou Dak St...really solid team.but also small and could get bullied. would like to see 20 here.

utah / baylor. will cam play? utes look hungry again...

skers/colorado...could we see skers win at minnesota or close cover loss, and CU gets blown out by TCU on the road, and buffs come back home and keep this one CLOSE??

zona...live dog

army/delware state...have to see what army is first...could be a while before they start humming with their new inverted shotgun option, dsu bad meac team but man, we still might not know what army is until they get blown out by UTSA on friday night on espn week3

CMU will blast new hampshire...lay the number anything under 28...UNH does not compete in these spots, see @WMU last year...will be a bludging.

first down touch down lets go peay! they will likely not be saying that on this day...would lay it with the vols

BG -22...no thanks...see EKU game last year. they dont perform well vs FCS foes., they just dont.

liberty -13...revenge spot horrific travel for NMSU, now conference foes, and NMSU likely to start 2-0 (hollow) vs umass and WIU...could get blasted here...rival NM on deck...or lib could struggle to master the complex offense and they cant gain margin on anyone. we will find out week 1 against the falcons. ziggy zummy

SMU? Live dog? perhaps so...scorefest i would assume

could utep bully northwestern? 10 seems lite, would like 14-15 before i can back the miners...who also could be 2-0

uconn...some extra prep off a thursday night opener. i would take the points if catching 8.5

la tech...lay it...

tulane/ole miss...game of the day? close anyway....great TV to tune in and watch as a fan...could be each team in the 40s

RICE...is this the year?? 9 is too low...they either lose by 2 or 22...

iowa...for obvious reasons.

LSU...could anyone really lay 60? out of principle i would have to play grambling. just dont see that one getting waaaaaaay out of control...could be 21-0 end of 1 Q, 35-0 HT, and 49-3 end of 3 and you are still in good shape! lol

if UTSA is laying 24 against the bobs i might just plug my nose and take the bobs hoping their offense can figure it out against a sometimes suspect UTSA defense...passing yards galore in that one...

navy-50? they might not score 50 against 11 folding chairs...wagner is waaaay bad though.

usc/tree...tree could be historically bad this year in all facets. cannot set the number high enough. books set tree -11 vs hawaii and have recognized the mistake...down to 8 and will be under 7 i would guess by kick off in week 1

UW/Tulsa...interesting game. UW can name their score but are in a sandwich spot
 
rambled like a fool but love the look ahead and finding out the mentality of these teams (travel, look ahead, off a physical matchup, conference foe on deck, etc. )

it must be done in order to be profitable
 
bookieassassin said:
I dunno which way that one goes ....
>> I would think it just bounces back and forth from 6/6'/7 - an occasional and BRIEF 7' maybe

If it drops, I'll be on BAMA probably - > Sark can't prepare his team on the road, so this is a really tall order. The Horns are the hyped team - BAMA is coming in with the chip on their shoulder. Surely Game Day too.

Sark has taken his teams on the road 46X - he's managed to win 16X SU, covering 19. At Texas he's had 9 road games - he's won and covered 3. His teams are soft.

BOL this year buddy
Click to expand...
I think it's going to be even harder for Sark to prepare this year than normal, and certainly harder than last season. Had many Texas folks tell me last year at the game that Gary Patterson had been tasked with game-planning the Alabama game during the summer, and they had a really nice defensive game plan. Of course, we didn't know at that point just how bad BOB had screwed up our team, but the point is that there was a ton of preparation going into that game on the Texas side, and they could feel confident in what they were doing because they knew what we were going to try to do on both sides of the ball. We got bailed out with the Ewers injury and Bryce being Bryce. This year, the coordinators are somewhat an unknown, a lot of the personnel will be an unknown, and unless someone runs away with the QB competition in camp, the QB will be an unknown. And with Milroe, you have a guy that is a completely different level runner at that position than probably anyone else in football currently, and certainly different than the other 2 guys. I'm not sure what we'll see from Alabama against MTSU, but I'd think we'd go as vanilla as possible as early as possible and rely on the talent edge to eventually wear them down and win mostly by running downhill at them.

I'm not advocating a bet on Alabama at this point, though I think I'd feel good at anything under a TD. I want to see a few things against MTSU before I feel comfortable
 
steponaduck said:
love those week two look ahead lines. only way to do it is to forcast what the next weeks line SHOULD be, or SHOULD open at, and pivot/fire away after they are up on sunday at 11am central...

have to take louisville IMO, they will blow the doors off the racers in that "in state affair" 66-13 or so...murray state is really bad and is moving up ...i mean waaaay up in class. they are going to get worn down and are a team to fade throughout the season in my opinion.

Indiana state/indiana...all depends on how the ohio state game goes. if they lose 52-14 they are pissed and take it out on the sycamores...if they lose 31-27 throwing into the endzone as time expires maybe they dont care and come out flat in week2....sycs hang around a while...

same for illinois/KU...IU with hope date with penn state on deck...very intersting to see how they prepare for the jayhawks.

Nevada, yeah idaho might mess around and win that game. or they could be the same ole SOFT fcs idaho we have come accustomed to seeing, although last year they hung toe to toe with wazzu...no reason they cant do that in reno...seems like they found some intestinal fortitude last season, and with this game being the 1st of back to back against FBS, perhaps they empty the chamber in this game before getting their doors blown off against the golden bears.

new mexico...has to beat Tennessee tech by more than 2 tds...right?

UC Davis can bring it...and do they, beavers did well in this spot last year dismantling montana state

Cinci/pitt...slugfest

memphis/ark state...score fest. give me the over...no matter what it is

cal poly/jose...jose come up for air after a brutal two game opening stretch...poly played well last year againts fresno with haener...wouldnt be shocked at all to see jose win by 28 and NOT cover.

utah state...lay it, for the only time this year. bengals are woeful again.

UNC/APpy...same song and dance for appy, compete against p5 competition for 4 quarters...

hawaii...on the island. will they be coming off a big win against stanford? albany brutal travel spot after going to marshall the week before...(not super long, are they bussing it to huntington and back??) either way ill be up till 3AM watching on spectrum sportsnet...i assure you of that.

uab/gata...seems like a great spot to play the eagles here.

wky/hou baptist...HBU to run slower pace this year...run the ball more, chew clock...could be a big number to cover...or wku could be up 49-6 at halftime...

EMU/Minnesota...just gimme the green eagles +21 and ask arizona state how that worked out....

akron/morgan state...i want to love akron. i do. just seems like every year this is a game they win by 9 pulling away late...and people look up the number and say -26, what the fugg was that. morgan state is a bad meac squad

ball state/gaw-gaw...how high will they set this line? could be a UGA flat spot, or maybe they play everyone on the roster to see what they have

james madison/uva...just gimme the dukes...big bro vs little bro...JMU will certainly bring it...im sure they have this one circled on the calendar in red ink

UNT...will flat out mess around with FIU and maybe lose.

holy cross + BC...is BC coming off a squeaker vs the huskies...this game means nothing to the eagles, and everything to HC...great QB and rb coming back for the cruisaiders...saw them play live in the playoffs at Sou Dak St...really solid team.but also small and could get bullied. would like to see 20 here.

utah / baylor. will cam play? utes look hungry again...

skers/colorado...could we see skers win at minnesota or close cover loss, and CU gets blown out by TCU on the road, and buffs come back home and keep this one CLOSE??

zona...live dog

army/delware state...have to see what army is first...could be a while before they start humming with their new inverted shotgun option, dsu bad meac team but man, we still might not know what army is until they get blown out by UTSA on friday night on espn week3

CMU will blast new hampshire...lay the number anything under 28...UNH does not compete in these spots, see @WMU last year...will be a bludging.

first down touch down lets go peay! they will likely not be saying that on this day...would lay it with the vols

BG -22...no thanks...see EKU game last year. they dont perform well vs FCS foes., they just dont.

liberty -13...revenge spot horrific travel for NMSU, now conference foes, and NMSU likely to start 2-0 (hollow) vs umass and WIU...could get blasted here...rival NM on deck...or lib could struggle to master the complex offense and they cant gain margin on anyone. we will find out week 1 against the falcons. ziggy zummy

SMU? Live dog? perhaps so...scorefest i would assume

could utep bully northwestern? 10 seems lite, would like 14-15 before i can back the miners...who also could be 2-0

uconn...some extra prep off a thursday night opener. i would take the points if catching 8.5

la tech...lay it...

tulane/ole miss...game of the day? close anyway....great TV to tune in and watch as a fan...could be each team in the 40s

RICE...is this the year?? 9 is too low...they either lose by 2 or 22...

iowa...for obvious reasons.

LSU...could anyone really lay 60? out of principle i would have to play grambling. just dont see that one getting waaaaaaay out of control...could be 21-0 end of 1 Q, 35-0 HT, and 49-3 end of 3 and you are still in good shape! lol

if UTSA is laying 24 against the bobs i might just plug my nose and take the bobs hoping their offense can figure it out against a sometimes suspect UTSA defense...passing yards galore in that one...

navy-50? they might not score 50 against 11 folding chairs...wagner is waaaay bad though.

usc/tree...tree could be historically bad this year in all facets. cannot set the number high enough. books set tree -11 vs hawaii and have recognized the mistake...down to 8 and will be under 7 i would guess by kick off in week 1

UW/Tulsa...interesting game. UW can name their score but are in a sandwich spot
Click to expand...
A 60 is available for Grambling?! Take that. LSU would never cover that vs instate HBC
 
Will be (looking) to hit the early number on Baylor - hopefully Utah will destroy the sorry Gators - Baylor jacks around with Southwest Texas State Teachers College ha .....

Per Action Network - Ute QB Rising has done NOTHING so far, a total rest situation. Makes zero sense to play him vs Florida/Baylor, and risk losing him for the P12 games. Ute HC values CONFERENCE games, his teams start slow > finish strong. Last 16 non-conference games, he's covered FIVE (P12 29-16 ats same period). As a September road favorite he's 2-5 su/1-6 ats. (only cover vs P12)

Bears are physical and won't be bullied here, are tough at home (won/covered 10/13), with only a scrimmage with Long Island on deck. AND will have the HEAT on their side (11:00a game).
 
Thats the sitch I was thinkin BA .. you don't see a dude in spring and 'should be G2G' for Fall, all the 'on track' reports don't mean anything .. massive game sure, really a must win .. they got a conf to defend here and really have a duty to get Rising an NFL shot with at least one good knee and a few brian cells left .. you recall they even left him out of a really critical game LY on the road vs Wazoo count on them 'managing' the risk in season .. But yeah mammoth must win UF game .. roadie to baylor is one you can lose with a backup and not feel at all bad about it .. get a couple practice drives in vs Weber and be G2G for conf ..
 
gps_3 said:
I think it's going to be even harder for Sark to prepare this year than normal, and certainly harder than last season. Had many Texas folks tell me last year at the game that Gary Patterson had been tasked with game-planning the Alabama game during the summer, and they had a really nice defensive game plan. Of course, we didn't know at that point just how bad BOB had screwed up our team, but the point is that there was a ton of preparation going into that game on the Texas side, and they could feel confident in what they were doing because they knew what we were going to try to do on both sides of the ball. We got bailed out with the Ewers injury and Bryce being Bryce. This year, the coordinators are somewhat an unknown, a lot of the personnel will be an unknown, and unless someone runs away with the QB competition in camp, the QB will be an unknown. And with Milroe, you have a guy that is a completely different level runner at that position than probably anyone else in football currently, and certainly different than the other 2 guys. I'm not sure what we'll see from Alabama against MTSU, but I'd think we'd go as vanilla as possible as early as possible and rely on the talent edge to eventually wear them down and win mostly by running downhill at them.

I'm not advocating a bet on Alabama at this point, though I think I'd feel good at anything under a TD. I want to see a few things against MTSU before I feel comfortable
Click to expand...
Great stuff, especially the info on Patterson’s game-planning.
 
smaller

FAU -4

>> typically avoid T. Herman as a favorite - especially with great dog spots vs Clemson and Illinois on deck - but Ohio is on their 2nd tough road trip, with their 2 best players hurt - QB plus WR Wiglusz and st WR Jones. Even if Rourke plays (why would he) how effective will he be? With Rourke line should probably be 5/6
 
Terps -24'
>> great spot for Maryland, great bully early, and HC ML takes these non-conf games seriously

and very small yikes

Ark St +21
>> Memphis is a BAD road team / Navy in 5 - ASU has played Memphis tough
 
I love that you had this thread ready to go July 29th. Amazing.

I hope you crush this week sir.
 
Thanks boys, BOL this week .............. :shake:

Lines were pretty solid - here are the major line swings > what the line would have been (before week 1), to what they are now
>> so you have to ask - " is what we saw week 1, an overreaction ...... or justified? .... OR was it not enough?
>> maybe Colorado is 7 pts better than Nebraska wtf !?

$ don't forget to look at BOTH sides

COLORADO +16 pts (+13 > -3)
Terps -11 (-35 > -24')
USC -11 (-40 > -29)
JMU +9 (+2 > -7)
VT +8 (+5 > -3
Memphis +7 (-14 > -21)
GASO +5 (-1 > -6')
AF +5 (-10 > -15)
GAST -5 (-8 > -3)
Ducks +4 (-3 > -7)
Virg +4 (-2 > -6)
ULL -3 (-9' > -6')
Iowa +3 (-1' > -4)


I'm done with week 3 - will post soon
 
BTW - I think I can mention them, as they're owned by same BetOnline group ha

LowVig had all lines out before most everybody - in rotational order (unlike many) - ALL at -105
> nice clean website that loads fast - unlike most all others - ie MB, BM, Heritage, etc.....


LEANS

Illinois
Vandy
Pitt
Purdue
Baylor 1H / maybe at 7+
Okie St?
Wazzu ?? like Wisky but Wazzu is tough as hell
UMass
A&M ?
UTSA <10
Troy?
OLE MISS
Rice
GASO
FIU ???
Bama ?? - probably live/2H
Temple
SOUTHERN MISS
---------------------
HAWAII
Holy Cross?
Richmond
S ILLINOIS
FURMAN
SELA
 
I hate taking road teams in weekday games.....

But adding Illinois +3' at Kansas - smaller play

Line probably 'should be' Illini -1' / 2 IMO, especially with KU QB not 100% - shouldn't run as much as he usually does, which is what makes their O work so well. Illini O vs that Kansas D should be the story here.
 
bookieassassin said:
BTW - I think I can mention them, as they're owned by same BetOnline group ha

LowVig had all lines out before most everybody - in rotational order (unlike many) - ALL at -105
> nice clean website that loads fast - unlike most all others - ie MB, BM, Heritage, etc.....


LEANS

Illinois
Vandy
Pitt
Purdue
Baylor 1H / maybe at 7+
Okie St?
Wazzu ?? like Wisky but Wazzu is tough as hell
UMass
A&M ?
UTSA <10
Troy?
OLE MISS
Rice
GASO
FIU ???
Bama ?? - probably live/2H
Temple
SOUTHERN MISS
---------------------
HAWAII
Holy Cross?
Richmond
S ILLINOIS
FURMAN
SELA
Click to expand...
Interesting
 
bookieassassin said:
I hate taking road teams in weekday games.....

But adding Illinois +3' at Kansas - smaller play

Line probably 'should be' Illini -1' / 2 IMO, especially with KU QB not 100% - shouldn't run as much as he usually does, which is what makes their O work so well. Illini O vs that Kansas D should be the story here.
Click to expand...
Agree totally.
 
I have no idea why Vandy can't stay within 10' of WF - smaller play

Actually pretty tough on the road - covered 8/11 under HC Lea - missing vs Bama, Georgia, and (good) Fla.. WF is tough at home tho, and tough in NC.
>> key here might be _ Vandy NEEDS a bowl bid in the worst way - this game is massive, a win here with UNLV next week = 4-0 start. They should play their ass off here.
 
gonna play Purdue small at +3 / ML

Before week 1 Boilers would be favored by 4 or so - meanwhile they lost a close game to Fresno / veteran HC Tedford at home - WHERE THEY STINK.
>> now on the road where they are tough as hell - Hokies D is still terrible - their game vs ODU was really closer than it looks - ODU ran for 200 yds/4.7. Hokies couldn't run at all vs that ferocious Monarch D .....

$ Here it should be Grant Wells vs Hudson Card - gimme HC


NOTE: one of the most under used handicapping tools is home vs road dichotomy

I think guys get scared away by ridiculous trends - and then don't know how to use the USEFUL ones.

FACT : Purdue is consistently OVERVALUED at home, and UNDERVALUED on the road - through a few coaching changes. They also seem to play better as a dog (slightly).
AWAY - they have covered 28 of 37 games (76%)
HOME- 22 of 53 (42%)


It just ain't a coincidence - some teams get way too comfortable at home, and/or they face just too many distractions - going on the road gives them an EDGE. Some have little to no HF advantage - yet 2-3 points is factored into the line anyway.


So ..... when off a road loss, facing an opponent off BB wins vs <.333 opposition - under a waning crescent moon on a Friday nite - play Purdue ! ....... :shocked:
 
Last edited:
Nebraska and Baylor 1st half thoughts? Catching Colorado off their biggest win since Kordell Stewart.....Baylor off a thrashing as 4 td favs at home vs a squad that coulda easily out to Gators.....
 
like vandy to stay within the number
UVA hosting little brother and they are +7...hmmm. emotional home opener...
ark state how do they get up off the mat. something tells me they do...but its butch so...would look ark sate +22 or over
gotta play idaho +7 right?
Y-state +45? ohio state not gonna run it up on youngstown given the circumstances are they? is jim tressel dotting the I for this one?
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Nebraska and Baylor 1st half thoughts? Catching Colorado off their biggest win since Kordell Stewart.....Baylor off a thrashing as 4 td favs at home vs a squad that coulda easily out to Gators.....
Click to expand...

If you follow my work ..... you have to know I'll be on BAYLOR for sure
* with that QB, maybe not - but now he's out, which triggers the handicapping angle .....

Play ON the team with the key injured player the 1st game - (maybe) FADE the next game

What happens is that the other team lets down a bit - injured guy's teammates rally around the new guy. Here I really like it - because the Utes really aren't that good on the road, especially early in the season - they've only won 2/7 outright / covering 1/7 (when favored away).

Bears are tough at home historically, plus the new QB (Sawyer Robertson from Miss St) - is probably better than Shapen IMO.

1H - With Baylor I'm not sure - the new QB might start slow? Huskers I like 1H no doubt.
$ I'll wait for the Baylor line to climb? - probably play Nebraska 1H ML
 
Last edited:
steponaduck said:
like vandy to stay within the number
UVA hosting little brother and they are +7...hmmm. emotional home opener...
ark state how do they get up off the mat. something tells me they do...but its butch so...would look ark sate +22 or over
gotta play idaho +7 right?
Y-state +45? ohio state not gonna run it up on youngstown given the circumstances are they? is jim tressel dotting the I for this one?
Click to expand...


Yep that Virginia line doesn't make much sense ....
>> pre week 1 maybe Cavs -2 or so - Vols blow them out and JMU beats Bucknell by 35, as 47 pt favorite - now a 7 pt HOME DOG?

Also: UAB and GASO played FCS - UAB looked sharp (QB like 38/41) - line has gone from GASO -1'/2 to 6? - might be forced to look at UAB (don't wanna)

Thoughts?

JAX St ? - CC stinks at home / D #105 SP+ - thats's a lotta points IMO

UMass? - Miami off physical game / Cinn on deck - terrible road team ..... UMass QB hurt tho

Can Troy hang at Kan St?
 
bookieassassin said:
Yep that Virginia line doesn't make much sense ....
>> pre week 1 maybe Cavs -2 or so - Vols blow them out and JMU beats Bucknell by 35, as 47 pt favorite - now a 7 pt HOME DOG?

Also: UAB and GASO played FCS - UAB looked sharp (QB like 38/41) - line has gone from GASO -1'/2 to 6? - might be forced to look at UAB (don't wanna)

Thoughts?

JAX St ? - CC stinks at home / D #105 SP+ - thats's a lotta points IMO

UMass? - Miami off physical game / Cinn on deck - terrible road team ..... UMass QB hurt tho

Can Troy hang at Kan St?
Click to expand...
Will dive deeper in to UAB. Initially Leaned GATA.

UMASS I would want to know QB situation before playing them. RedHawks looked super soft against the canes. Same ole non conference apathy from them. Even gabbart looked weak.

Troy. Very tempting there. Their D was exposed against SFA however and Kstate looked solid against a top 20 FCs foe.

Coastal D held up in the trenches for 52 minutes there. Wonder how they will perform against jax. Wonder if Jax can control the LOs and move the football. They couldn’t against UTEP. First roady too.
Time to lock in if you are Jax.
 
Play ON the team with the key injured player the 1st game - (maybe) FADE the next game
Click to expand...

Love it. I have been saying for years that betting against an injury is a death wish.

This goes for multiple sports (NBA -- big-time).
 
B.A.R. said:
Love it. I have been saying for years that betting against an injury is a death wish.

This goes for multiple sports (NBA -- big-time).
Click to expand...

Classic example is the 1978 Orange Bowl - Lou Holtz suspended 3 of Arkansas's best players > line went from OU -18 to 24. Hogs kicked the crap outta the Sooners

www.oklahoman.com

How Lou Holtz engineered the Orange Bowl upset of OU

The Razorbacks false-keyed the great Sooners 40 years ago, perhaps costing OU a national title.
www.oklahoman.com


Last time I recall doing it was Kansas State as a home dog vs (good) Nevada / KSU QB was out, Pack was loaded - EVERBODY was on Nevada .....
 
Ohio doesn't say usually

Jones hasn't played yet - Wiglusz didn't suit up LW

All 3 will be limited if they do play - Ohio is playing for a MAC title - I don't know why you would risk them here
 
bookieassassin said:
Ohio doesn't say usually

Jones hasn't played yet - Wiglusz didn't suit up LW

All 3 will be limited if they do play - Ohio is playing for a MAC title - I don't know why you would risk them here
Click to expand...
I agree. How do to you trott rourke out there and risk….blah blah blah I said it in my thread.

Can’t see them doing it but he eluded to getting skill guys back this week, in his presser today which I just listened to
 
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