Week 2 in the FCS

Some of the variance between Sagarin and Massey is huge. Take Eastern Washington. Sagarin has -19. Massey has -31.5! EWU closed about -14.5 vs Monmouth, so -19 vs Drake is pretty off what the market thinks of EWU and that line move was probabaly some of a fade on Monmouth as well, but everyone going to be fading Drake too! Line probably more like 28 I'd guess. Might still be a good play there.

Drake had their game haulted due to weather than canceled last week vs some Dll school. Drake did win the Pioneer last year, their reward was traveling to Fargo to be crushed by the Bison. Drake backed their way to the Pioneer Title as Davidson choked their final 2 games handing it to Drake. Drake only beat Marist 10-3 and Presbyterian 16-14 and Butler 13-9. Yeah.

I have not looked at what kind of team they have coming back this year, but I am kind of high on Eastern Washington getting back into the upper half of the Big Sky and maybe getting close to an upper third type team. It is all about how their D continues to improve, assuming it does. Their going to be a good O as you would expect. They kind of lost their way offensively but appear fully back. EWU led Monmouth 42-14 4Q last week. Monmouth > Drake.
 
s--k said:
Good thanks. Sometimes I skip over the FCS-FBS game if I don't feel I have any kind of pulse on the FBS school. You are very correct though, Albany had their hands full last week. They lost a ton off last year's team.
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all 11 gone from the stout D and key offensive pieces missing. this team will be buried in the CAA standings at end of year. not even close to the same team we saw last year.
 
s--k said:
Some of the variance between Sagarin and Massey is huge. Take Eastern Washington. Sagarin has -19. Massey has -31.5! EWU closed about -14.5 vs Monmouth, so -19 vs Drake is pretty off what the market thinks of EWU and that line move was probabaly some of a fade on Monmouth as well, but everyone going to be fading Drake too! Line probably more like 28 I'd guess. Might still be a good play there.

Drake had their game haulted due to weather than canceled last week vs some Dll school. Drake did win the Pioneer last year, their reward was traveling to Fargo to be crushed by the Bison. Drake backed their way to the Pioneer Title as Davidson choked their final 2 games handing it to Drake. Drake only beat Marist 10-3 and Presbyterian 16-14 and Butler 13-9. Yeah.

I have not looked at what kind of team they have coming back this year, but I am kind of high on Eastern Washington getting back into the upper half of the Big Sky and maybe getting close to an upper third type team. It is all about how their D continues to improve, assuming it does. Their going to be a good O as you would expect. They kind of lost their way offensively but appear fully back. EWU led Monmouth 42-14 4Q last week. Monmouth > Drake.
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I like this one

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Sagarin has UNI -13
 
steponaduck said:
UNI is horrific this year however. hard to lay with them.
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They have to bring it this week with the upcoming schedule and I expect them to destroy St Thomas. They're still probably a top 25 team but the record won't show it at the end of the season
 
A few more came out last night. W ILL-IND I had no interest in. But Missouri State at only +2.5 isn't very good and neither is Idaho-WY Under of just 46.5.

I don't like to say what I would play at what numbers because last week I said I was hoping for Eastern Washington a 7 or less or Delaware at 14 or less...and I took those at 7.5 and 15.5 at open and they closed 5-7 pts higher.

To recap what I am looking for so far this week, I still have yet to get into the bulk of the FCS-FCS games:

William & Mary +__ at C Car
UNLV -__ vs Utah Tech
Samford +__ at Florida
Montana - __ at UND (this one must be -3 or less and I'd probably just ML it)
Chattanooga +__ and possible ML at Georgia St
St Francis +__ at Kent (assuming this one I'd wait til close as it should rise)
SFA Ov__ at N Tex
W Car -__ vs Campbell
E Wash -__ vs Drake

IF UNI is would actually be -13 at St Thomas I would surely be in. But I think chances are it is more like 4 scores and I am not going to lay that on the road even vs a small program like St Thomas, for a couple reasons. First off, we do know how big of a deal it can be for a small program to get a big school at their place, it changes some of the dynamics of the intangibles. And while it can be said that UNI needs this win and they'd move to 2-0 because they have a tough schedule ahead, I could actually make a case that this is a look-ahead spot for UNI because this is just a lowly Pioneer team, just like the one they waxed easily last week and their game at Nebraska next week could be on the minds of those players. So for me, UNI laying big number here is just a skip for me.

I'll see what else I can contribute here today and tonight
 
carolinablue said:
FanDuel just posted a few..

Georgia is at 53.5 so gonna pass
LSU is at 51.5, another pass for me
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What about the Unders in these games? UGA is 62.5 and LSU is 61.5. Tenn Tech and Nicholls are already offensively challenged teams so I can't expect them to score much more than 7, 10 max. So it comes down to how many UGA and LSU score. Both teams are coming off big opening week games vs Clemson and USC. Sure, home opener for both adds some juice, but both are in classic let down spots with bigger game the following week as both face SEC opponents. I would have to assume we see a lot of reserves start to filter in mid-late 2Q for both. Or maybe waiting to take a live Under is better in case either of these teams have a big output 1Q.

And for that matter the NAU and Arizona total is high too, 65.5. Both teams had very high scoring games last week, but I don't really know if I would count on NAU scoring a whole bunch - so it is what does Zona do? They also have a conference game next week.
 
s--k said:
What about the Unders in these games? UGA is 62.5 and LSU is 61.5. Tenn Tech and Nicholls are already offensively challenged teams so I can't expect them to score much more than 7, 10 max. So it comes down to how many UGA and LSU score. Both teams are coming off big opening week games vs Clemson and USC. Sure, home opener for both adds some juice, but both are in classic let down spots with bigger game the following week as both face SEC opponents. I would have to assume we see a lot of reserves start to filter in mid-late 2Q for both. Or maybe waiting to take a live Under is better in case either of these teams have a big output 1Q.

And for that matter the NAU and Arizona total is high too, 65.5. Both teams had very high scoring games last week, but I don't really know if I would count on NAU scoring a whole bunch - so it is what does Zona do? They also have a conference game next week.
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I hear what you’re saying, in any of these situations they only game that I would play would be Tennessee Tech with the points if it gets higher than 56 1/2

I think what we saw from Arizona last week is what they are, leaky defense, who got gashed by New Mexico and super explosive offense, I know they play Kansas State next week, but that is a non-conference game since it was scheduled before Arizona join the big 12 so that’ll have no implications in the big 12 standings or tiebreakers

We have to do more of a deep dive on nickel state and Louisiana state,
 
Central Arkansas would seem like an easy win coming up at Lindenwood. UCA does not have a lot of experience of being the better team on the road with those expectations of winning comfortably. Last year they were a road fav just twice and went 0-1-1 ATS by my count. Lindenwood was 2-1 ATS as a home dog. I'd rather have UCA, but will pass as the line looks to be -20. If somehow is comes out lower maybe I'd bite.


West Georgia could have momentum, but they did score 14 pts off 2 TOs from Samford last week and one was a pure 14 point swing. Might sound a little too easy, but maybe just over instead at Abilene Christian? Feel like the better half of WGU is their O and Abiline's D was really up and down last year. Here is a crazy stat, ACU was outgained in every single game last year after week 1! I feel like I would be forcing something in this game actually.


What they release on Elon - NCCU is going to be very interesting. I think I am prejudice to wanting Elon in a revenge game and think that NCCU is down from last year and thinkt that Elon, on paper, stands to be better. But I can't unsee what Duke's pass rush did to them and the Elon OL was very poor week 1 when they have all that experience, and that coupled with how NCCU's DL played them last year, it's a bad look. So I don't know what I would do here. If NCCU is in fact favored I would take Elon. If Elon is favored, I would just walk away or maybe small play on NCCU if it is high enough.


This could be a get right game for Tarleton State. They are 0-2 ATS so far this year and have only played one good half of football, 1H vs McNeese. QB1 had surgery on his hand and is going to be out a few weeks. They started Pete last week, which we all know was going to go horribly, it actually couldn't have been worse as he was sacked twice, was 0-2 passing and threw a pick-six. They got him out of there after the third series, which was 3 too many. He may've actually been hurt, but either way, he's not the QB anymore. It is Greek's job now until Gabalis is back. I said before that Greek spent time at Miss State when Leach was there, so he must possess some QB talent or his mental aspect of offense for that staff to want him.

Houston Christian has only been playing football since 2014. They had a new HC last year, but after their first ever winning season (actually 5-5 the 6-5 is with the NW State forfeit) he left to take the Campbell job. His DC went there too. Last season's year 1 OC is now the HC. I don't know if Houston Christian knows who their QB is yet. They did start Stewart was a little used backup last year, but they have two transfers who played a little last week 2. They played SMU so that went about as expected, SMU led 28-0 1Q and won 59-7 as a 50 pt favorite. Defensively, not only do they lose their defensive minded HC, their DC, but also lose an NFL draft pick! Edge Jalyx Hunt was the second FCS player selected in the draft! They lose just about their entire LB and DB starters, 3 all conference LBs gone and 4 of 5 DBs gone.

I think with HCU figuring out who they are and what they can do on O and with a D that should be down quite a bit this year, they are going to be pretty vulnerable. Tarleton beat them 49-7 in 2022, they DNP last year. The way that Tarleton has looked the last 6 halves of football may have people down on them. I think this is a good spot and with a line projecting under 2 TDs, 10.5 or 11 - that looks good to me.
 
steponaduck said:
I hear what you’re saying, in any of these situations they only game that I would play would be Tennessee Tech with the points if it gets higher than 56 1/2

I think what we saw from Arizona last week is what they are, leaky defense, who got gashed by New Mexico and super explosive offense, I know they play Kansas State next week, but that is a non-conference game since it was scheduled before Arizona join the big 12 so that’ll have no implications in the big 12 standings or tiebreakers

We have to do more of a deep dive on nickel state and Louisiana state,
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I watched a good bit of Nicholls St last week. Good numbers got the cash, but boy o boy they looked really bad on offense. They did this last year and won the conference though.
I’d probably have LSU or nada but yea plenty other places to make hay
 
@twinkie13 SLC not a great league these days. I think Word could be better this year. Playing SDSU this week! SFA makes the league better with another competitive team. Conference has just fallen on hard times. Hurts that SE Louisiana is so down and Word is off from their highs.
 
As high as I was on Illinois State this summer, I don't see myself involved in the North Alabama game. All American RB, out. All American LB, out. That is just brutal to have your two best players on either side of the ball injured with lower led injuries vs Iowa. And that is the unfortunate truth, especially vs a team like Iowa, you get beat up. DD road fav now at UNA for their home opener? Don't like it that situation. But can't like UNA either. Turnovers have been a major problem for them this year. In two games they have lost 7 TOs (-6 ratio). Last week vs Memphis they had 3 straight drives in the 1H end in turnovers! I liked how Illinois State D played in the 1H vs Iowa and Illinois State D is good and all. I don't know, maybe I am surprised how high the number is, but I just don't have much to say on this game.


I do want to see Incarnate Word play South Dakota State. Said last week that I thought UIW could've won by more than 28-7 vs No Colorado. UIW had 5 drives into UNC territory result in 0 pts (INT, missed FG, SOD, 2 punts). Clearly that isn't going to work well for their chances at SDSU either. This is a measuring stick game. UIW again has a lot of new pieces on O at WR and OL. And the D has some guys back, but lost some key ones as well. No expectations here. I assume that SDSU will do what SDSU does, roll teams, but I don't have a play. Just will learn about UIW that is all.


Oh, here's a game Eastern Illinois hosting Indiana State. And the projected lines look appetizing! EIU -2.5 - 5? Sure. I wish I had stopped last week at "I don't know if Eastern Illinois is ready for a game like this" before they played Illinois because verly clearly they were not. They had not even faced a playoff team last year or any big out of conference opponents. But now, they get to face a bad FCS team and it should go pretty well for them. I spent a lot of time typing nice things about EIU when I was looking at the Illinois game, but long story short, this team is ready to take the next step on both sides of the ball and that means competing for the league title and jumping into the playoffs. They have some good pieces. I hope they are going to be taking that next step because they were difficult to trust last year as a favorite. EIU was just 3-3 ATS as a favorite last year, although they did cover their final 2 games of the year as favorites showing their improvement. There isn't much to like about Indiana State. They opened the season against eachother last year on a Thursday night. Indiana State was -13.5 and lost straight up. The QB who was supposed to be theri #1 from the prior year was out and their O was a mess without him. EIU wasn't very good that night offensively either, but they grew quite a bit as the season wore on and are in a good position now. Indiana State is more settled at QB, but I wouldn't say they are necessarily any better. I still want a small number as I have trust issues with EIU as a favorite, but I would lay a TD or less which is where this line probably opens.


I guess everyone is just a 3 TD favorite vs Mississippi Valley. As they probalby should be. Tenn State was up 31-0 HT and Valley scored 21 4Q pts to make that final look better (41-21). It looks like Lamar played pretty well as a 32 pt dog at Texas State only losing 27-34. But they were outgained by 200y and TxSt fumbled at the L13, SOD at the L03, threw an INT from the L30 and kicked 3 FGs from inside the L30 (made 2). Lamar only rushed for 1.8 ypc, were under 50% completions and only converted 21% 3rd downs. So shouldn't give them too much credit for only losing by 7 there I don't think. But vs Valley? Well, honestly I just don't want to lay 3 TDs with Lamar even vs Valley.


Maine at Montana State is an interesting one. Montana State offensively just isn't quite where they need to be. We saw some of their struggles at New Mexico and forutnately for them they were able to overcome those to win. And last week, at Utah Tech, they really were not good. It shows on the scoreboard with only 31 pts, they scored 63 on a better version of Utah Tech last year. Thing is the yardage differential is about the same, outgained them by 329y last year and by 305y this year. Maybe this is the week it clicks for Bobcats, but the OL is still banged up and shuffled. FG kicking issues arose again last week (why even kick some of those FGs) - just go for it, it's Utah Tech - oh maybe they are trying to build new kickers confidence...but he missed 2, or, maybe one was blocked, not what Cat fans want to see. D doesn't have any sacks so far this year, but I don't want to be critical of the D because take away a few bad pass interference penalties vs UNM week 0, the D has done pretty well. I don't think Maine is very dangerous, I bet Colgate against them last week, so obviously I don't fear Maine. TY in that game was just 303-297 for Colgate (ypp 5.1 to 4.9). Don't like Peavy at QB, I think he is a downgrade from what they had last year. They do have some good receiving and TE targets, their #1 WR Gillete DNP last week and he is expected back this week. I don't really like the Maine D, but I wonder with some of the play out of the Montana State O right now, they might be able to hang around a bit. I would rather have Montana State, but it looks like it could be about -27/28. I would imagine this as a game that Montana State would cover in the 4Q, it might take them a while, but they should win by some kind of margin over the spread I think...just have to get better on offense, the state of the OL might make it tough to hit on all cylinders. Maine traveled to NDSU last year, that game was just 16-0 Bison at HT and went 44-7 F with a -233 yard differential. NDSU ran for 264 (5.6) and Maine gave up over 300y rushing twice last year. We know what Montana State wants to do.
 
s--k said:
As high as I was on Illinois State this summer, I don't see myself involved in the North Alabama game. All American RB, out. All American LB, out. That is just brutal to have your two best players on either side of the ball injured with lower led injuries vs Iowa. And that is the unfortunate truth, especially vs a team like Iowa, you get beat up. DD road fav now at UNA for their home opener? Don't like it that situation. But can't like UNA either. Turnovers have been a major problem for them this year. In two games they have lost 7 TOs (-6 ratio). Last week vs Memphis they had 3 straight drives in the 1H end in turnovers! I liked how Illinois State D played in the 1H vs Iowa and Illinois State D is good and all. I don't know, maybe I am surprised how high the number is, but I just don't have much to say on this game.


I do want to see Incarnate Word play South Dakota State. Said last week that I thought UIW could've won by more than 28-7 vs No Colorado. UIW had 5 drives into UNC territory result in 0 pts (INT, missed FG, SOD, 2 punts). Clearly that isn't going to work well for their chances at SDSU either. This is a measuring stick game. UIW again has a lot of new pieces on O at WR and OL. And the D has some guys back, but lost some key ones as well. No expectations here. I assume that SDSU will do what SDSU does, roll teams, but I don't have a play. Just will learn about UIW that is all.


Oh, here's a game Eastern Illinois hosting Indiana State. And the projected lines look appetizing! EIU -2.5 - 5? Sure. I wish I had stopped last week at "I don't know if Eastern Illinois is ready for a game like this" before they played Illinois because verly clearly they were not. They had not even faced a playoff team last year or any big out of conference opponents. But now, they get to face a bad FCS team and it should go pretty well for them. I spent a lot of time typing nice things about EIU when I was looking at the Illinois game, but long story short, this team is ready to take the next step on both sides of the ball and that means competing for the league title and jumping into the playoffs. They have some good pieces. I hope they are going to be taking that next step because they were difficult to trust last year as a favorite. EIU was just 3-3 ATS as a favorite last year, although they did cover their final 2 games of the year as favorites showing their improvement. There isn't much to like about Indiana State. They opened the season against eachother last year on a Thursday night. Indiana State was -13.5 and lost straight up. The QB who was supposed to be theri #1 from the prior year was out and their O was a mess without him. EIU wasn't very good that night offensively either, but they grew quite a bit as the season wore on and are in a good position now. Indiana State is more settled at QB, but I wouldn't say they are necessarily any better. I still want a small number as I have trust issues with EIU as a favorite, but I would lay a TD or less which is where this line probably opens.


I guess everyone is just a 3 TD favorite vs Mississippi Valley. As they probalby should be. Tenn State was up 31-0 HT and Valley scored 21 4Q pts to make that final look better (41-21). It looks like Lamar played pretty well as a 32 pt dog at Texas State only losing 27-34. But they were outgained by 200y and TxSt fumbled at the L13, SOD at the L03, threw an INT from the L30 and kicked 3 FGs from inside the L30 (made 2). Lamar only rushed for 1.8 ypc, were under 50% completions and only converted 21% 3rd downs. So shouldn't give them too much credit for only losing by 7 there I don't think. But vs Valley? Well, honestly I just don't want to lay 3 TDs with Lamar even vs Valley.


Maine at Montana State is an interesting one. Montana State offensively just isn't quite where they need to be. We saw some of their struggles at New Mexico and forutnately for them they were able to overcome those to win. And last week, at Utah Tech, they really were not good. It shows on the scoreboard with only 31 pts, they scored 63 on a better version of Utah Tech last year. Thing is the yardage differential is about the same, outgained them by 329y last year and by 305y this year. Maybe this is the week it clicks for Bobcats, but the OL is still banged up and shuffled. FG kicking issues arose again last week (why even kick some of those FGs) - just go for it, it's Utah Tech - oh maybe they are trying to build new kickers confidence...but he missed 2, or, maybe one was blocked, not what Cat fans want to see. D doesn't have any sacks so far this year, but I don't want to be critical of the D because take away a few bad pass interference penalties vs UNM week 0, the D has done pretty well. I don't think Maine is very dangerous, I bet Colgate against them last week, so obviously I don't fear Maine. TY in that game was just 303-297 for Colgate (ypp 5.1 to 4.9). Don't like Peavy at QB, I think he is a downgrade from what they had last year. They do have some good receiving and TE targets, their #1 WR Gillete DNP last week and he is expected back this week. I don't really like the Maine D, but I wonder with some of the play out of the Montana State O right now, they might be able to hang around a bit. I would rather have Montana State, but it looks like it could be about -27/28. I would imagine this as a game that Montana State would cover in the 4Q, it might take them a while, but they should win by some kind of margin over the spread I think...just have to get better on offense, the state of the OL might make it tough to hit on all cylinders. Maine traveled to NDSU last year, that game was just 16-0 Bison at HT and went 44-7 F with a -233 yard differential. NDSU ran for 264 (5.6) and Maine gave up over 300y rushing twice last year. We know what Montana State wants to do.
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I wrote up a piece on this game for the Action Network that you might find interesting, I firmly believe Montana State is going to be looking to put together a full and complete offensive performance in front of their home crowd for the first time this season on both accounts. The field goal struggles will also affect coaching decisions to go forward on fourth and short, and with that offensive line being able to control the line of scrimmage, I fully suspect Montana state Bobcat drives to end in the end zone this game instead of in a field goal attempt

I do not think this is going to go well for the maine black bears.
 
steponaduck said:
I wrote up a piece on this game for the Action Network that you might find interesting, I firmly believe Montana State is going to be looking to put together a full and complete offensive performance in front of their home crowd for the first time this season on both accounts. The field goal struggles will also affect coaching decisions to go forward on fourth and short, and with that offensive line being able to control the line of scrimmage, I fully suspect Montana state Bobcat drives to end in the end zone this game instead of in a field goal attempt

I do not think this is going to go well for the maine black bears.
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Gold Rush game! What number do you expect to see on this game? NDSU closed -35.5 vs them last year.
 
s--k said:
As high as I was on Illinois State this summer, I don't see myself involved in the North Alabama game. All American RB, out. All American LB, out. That is just brutal to have your two best players on either side of the ball injured with lower led injuries vs Iowa. And that is the unfortunate truth, especially vs a team like Iowa, you get beat up. DD road fav now at UNA for their home opener? Don't like it that situation. But can't like UNA either. Turnovers have been a major problem for them this year. In two games they have lost 7 TOs (-6 ratio). Last week vs Memphis they had 3 straight drives in the 1H end in turnovers! I liked how Illinois State D played in the 1H vs Iowa and Illinois State D is good and all. I don't know, maybe I am surprised how high the number is, but I just don't have much to say on this game.


I do want to see Incarnate Word play South Dakota State. Said last week that I thought UIW could've won by more than 28-7 vs No Colorado. UIW had 5 drives into UNC territory result in 0 pts (INT, missed FG, SOD, 2 punts). Clearly that isn't going to work well for their chances at SDSU either. This is a measuring stick game. UIW again has a lot of new pieces on O at WR and OL. And the D has some guys back, but lost some key ones as well. No expectations here. I assume that SDSU will do what SDSU does, roll teams, but I don't have a play. Just will learn about UIW that is all.


Oh, here's a game Eastern Illinois hosting Indiana State. And the projected lines look appetizing! EIU -2.5 - 5? Sure. I wish I had stopped last week at "I don't know if Eastern Illinois is ready for a game like this" before they played Illinois because verly clearly they were not. They had not even faced a playoff team last year or any big out of conference opponents. But now, they get to face a bad FCS team and it should go pretty well for them. I spent a lot of time typing nice things about EIU when I was looking at the Illinois game, but long story short, this team is ready to take the next step on both sides of the ball and that means competing for the league title and jumping into the playoffs. They have some good pieces. I hope they are going to be taking that next step because they were difficult to trust last year as a favorite. EIU was just 3-3 ATS as a favorite last year, although they did cover their final 2 games of the year as favorites showing their improvement. There isn't much to like about Indiana State. They opened the season against eachother last year on a Thursday night. Indiana State was -13.5 and lost straight up. The QB who was supposed to be theri #1 from the prior year was out and their O was a mess without him. EIU wasn't very good that night offensively either, but they grew quite a bit as the season wore on and are in a good position now. Indiana State is more settled at QB, but I wouldn't say they are necessarily any better. I still want a small number as I have trust issues with EIU as a favorite, but I would lay a TD or less which is where this line probably opens.


I guess everyone is just a 3 TD favorite vs Mississippi Valley. As they probalby should be. Tenn State was up 31-0 HT and Valley scored 21 4Q pts to make that final look better (41-21). It looks like Lamar played pretty well as a 32 pt dog at Texas State only losing 27-34. But they were outgained by 200y and TxSt fumbled at the L13, SOD at the L03, threw an INT from the L30 and kicked 3 FGs from inside the L30 (made 2). Lamar only rushed for 1.8 ypc, were under 50% completions and only converted 21% 3rd downs. So shouldn't give them too much credit for only losing by 7 there I don't think. But vs Valley? Well, honestly I just don't want to lay 3 TDs with Lamar even vs Valley.


Maine at Montana State is an interesting one. Montana State offensively just isn't quite where they need to be. We saw some of their struggles at New Mexico and forutnately for them they were able to overcome those to win. And last week, at Utah Tech, they really were not good. It shows on the scoreboard with only 31 pts, they scored 63 on a better version of Utah Tech last year. Thing is the yardage differential is about the same, outgained them by 329y last year and by 305y this year. Maybe this is the week it clicks for Bobcats, but the OL is still banged up and shuffled. FG kicking issues arose again last week (why even kick some of those FGs) - just go for it, it's Utah Tech - oh maybe they are trying to build new kickers confidence...but he missed 2, or, maybe one was blocked, not what Cat fans want to see. D doesn't have any sacks so far this year, but I don't want to be critical of the D because take away a few bad pass interference penalties vs UNM week 0, the D has done pretty well. I don't think Maine is very dangerous, I bet Colgate against them last week, so obviously I don't fear Maine. TY in that game was just 303-297 for Colgate (ypp 5.1 to 4.9). Don't like Peavy at QB, I think he is a downgrade from what they had last year. They do have some good receiving and TE targets, their #1 WR Gillete DNP last week and he is expected back this week. I don't really like the Maine D, but I wonder with some of the play out of the Montana State O right now, they might be able to hang around a bit. I would rather have Montana State, but it looks like it could be about -27/28. I would imagine this as a game that Montana State would cover in the 4Q, it might take them a while, but they should win by some kind of margin over the spread I think...just have to get better on offense, the state of the OL might make it tough to hit on all cylinders. Maine traveled to NDSU last year, that game was just 16-0 Bison at HT and went 44-7 F with a -233 yard differential. NDSU ran for 264 (5.6) and Maine gave up over 300y rushing twice last year. We know what Montana State wants to do.
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The MSU offense is every bit as good as it was last season. They have the #4 offense overall and #2 rush offense. It's hard to cover 4 TD spreads when you run a slow offense and don't get any turnovers. Normally 500+ yards converts to 45+ pts.

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sleepy said:
The MSU offense is every bit as good as it was last season. They have the #4 offense overall and #2 rush offense. It's hard to cover 4 TD spreads when you run a slow offense and don't get any turnovers. Normally 500+ yards converts to 45+ pts.

View attachment 87944
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It should be every bit as good, but it just is not operating at that level. The offensive line breakdowns at UNM. The RZ O at Utah Tech. They have all the pieces there to be as good as last year, but so far this year, I don't think the results on the field haven't shown it. Or else Tommy isn't fumbling under pressure at UNM and they aren't settling for FGs they miss at Utah Tech.
 
Seeing a potential big line on Mercer at Bethune. I do like that a lot of the Mercer defensive players stuck around through the coaching change and the defense was their better side of the ball last year. Not sure I want to trust a JUCO QB and a new offense though on the road even if it is just vs Bethune Cookman. Might actually like this Under. Bethune went Under in 7 of 8 games vs FCS last year. Mercer went Under 7 of 12 vs FCS. Reading that Bethune wasn't as overwhelmed up front on D vs USF as the matchup and score might suggest. I know Mercer scored 63 last week. Both these teams are better on D than O I suspect though. Total could be something in the mid 50s.



Marist's first game. I was pretty impressed with the Georgetown rushing O last week. I was on Davidson and was equally disappointed in the Davidson D and with them being out of position and their tackling. 5 GT rushers had DD ypc averaged! It didn't totally destroy my opinion of Davidson, but did greatly damage it while providing a boost to GT. I thought GT would be a little more pass heavy given what this QB did in his action last year. But this gameplan suited them well. Should work good vs Marist who is never good. They welcome a new HC and a new outlook and some coaches out of Princeton and Harvard should help reboot their program. GT hosted the Red Fox to open 2023 and beat them 49-7 as just a 7pt home fav and finished with a 200 yard edge 401-202 (6.3-3.8). I wouldn't take Marist here, but there is enough uncertainty there for the first game of new staff and with GT possibly being a heavy road fav and Marist is enough to keep me away from the Hoyas.



If I fall back on the preseason reads one more week before more heavily relying on real games than I would be on Portland State at Weber - as I was pretty down on the tragectory of Weber and Portland State isn't close to good, but they have some offensive capability. These two DNP last year. Each played a Washingotn FBS school last week with Portland State getting blown out of the building by 50 and Weber losing big in a slower fashion by 32. Portland St moved it pretty well in the 1H, had like 260y, finsihed with 449 (5.4) for the game. Problem was Wash St got 637 on them for a whopping 12.5 ypp. In a way it was kind of similar to what Oregon did vs them week 1 last year, Ducks won 81-7 and had 10.1 ypp. Then Portland St came back the next week and only lost by 14 at Wyoming as 28 pt dogs, just slightly being outgained in yardage. Weber gained 253 total yards (3.7) at Washington, but over 80 of those yards came on their final 2 possessions. And that is what I don't like about Weber is their offense. We have two poor units here, typically Weber's offense and pretty much always Portand State's defense. To me this is a game where a lot of different things could happen. Portland State could win or they could lose by 5 TDs. Probably take a little of something on them over 2 TDs and I might have to take some ML just in case it happens I want a piece.




Stonehill at Stony Brook - I think Stony Brook can snap their FCS leading losing streak currently at 12 games. They’ve been dogged in each of their last 12 games. The Citadel just snapped their 11 game streak last week, so it’s a new year! More on this point spread later.

SB is starting a Tr Fr QB Malachi Marshall over returning starter Casey Case and Georgetown transfer Tyler Knoop. Knoop started last week, but was replaced towards the end of the 1Q. For this coaching staff ‘the future is now' in going with the freshman. He went 10-20-96-0-1 passing in his first college action vs Marshall and gained 34y rushing, but also lost 33 yards for a net of 1.

SB actually didn’t fare too bad early vs Marshall. They gave up an 80y run, but Marshall didn’t sustain drives in the 1H. Outside of the 80y run they only gained 39y of offense on their other 3 drives to open the game. The 2H and closing the game is where Marshall took over when they went for 222 yards and 3 TDs to finish the game and win 45-3. Other than Marshall they aren’t going with the youth-movement all over the starting lineup, instead they are predominantly a 5th year Sr and Grad lineup. They were set to return 10 starters on offense, but now Case isn’t starting and more importantly their best WR Anthony Johnson is no longer with the team due to an off the field issue. Good for SB that they brought in some really good WR transfers, like Jasiah Williams who led the CAA in 2022 with 82 receptions. They also brought one of VMI’s only bright spots on offense last year, Chance Knox who isn’t quite 100% right now. All their other receivers are back. It was an inexperienced OL last year, but now 4 starters are back.

HC Cosh was at Richmond in 2022 and then was Western Mich OC last year. He brings WM WR coach over as OC. The DC is from St Francis, out of the NEC. St Francis beat Stonehill each of the last 2 years and held them to just 10 and 13 pts in those games. They are working with 6 starters back on D and as we would expect, it has been a poor unit. Bright spots last year including holding Fordham to just 26 pts (avg 30.5) and Richmond to 20 (avg 28.2).

Stonehill has been FCS since 2022 and has gone 9-10 over the last 2 years. They do have a ok QB returning, although he only hit 48% completions last year and 54% the year before as their starter. This passes for 'ok' QB in the NEC. One thing that jumped out to me, Stonehill saw their #1, #2 and #4 receivers transfer out. #1 was Domercant who I thought was pretty good – he’s at Chatanooga now. They also had their top RB from the last 2 seasons transfer out. So a bit down at the offensive skill positions to start this year.

Otherwise I don’t know that much about their personnel. They did beat NEC Champ Duquesne last year as a 13 pt dog, but they also lost to bottom feeder Wagner. So they are one of those kind of teams.

I went through all of that just to say…I don’t like the line. Massey Stony Brook -9.5 and Sagarin -6.5. Nobody would want to or should lay points with them. The reddit FCS group who makes point spreads every week has Stonehill -1. I like to think that SB could be a home dog here as they haven’t won since November of 2022 and Stonehill has posted a better record of late, albeit vs weaker NEC teams. Stony Brook played 6 of the top 8 CAA teams last year and faced an FBS and top Patriot team. They actually haven’t played a team with this low of a PR in several years making this one of their most winningable games in quite a while.




UC Davis looked like a potential play, but is Texas A&M Commerce actually better? They led San Diego State last week 6-3 at HT eventually losing 14-45 being outgained by 288 yards. Aztecs scored twice on D which isn’t surprising. Commerce only had a 3.1 ypp average. They only had 2.5 decent drives all night, they scored TDs on 2 of those. So not like the O really competed all game or anything. Last year UCD was -26.5 in their 48-10 week 1 road win vs Commerce. UCD held a 529-285 TY edge there. It is going to be hard to want to lay much more than that here even though Davis is at home as Commerce is likely a little better off one year later. Seeing 23.5 – 27.5 on the PR lines, so maybe can grab something early. Really liked how Davis played the 1H vs Cal. It was like a totally different team in the 2H. Think this team has decent potential on O and D and can be a top 4 Big Sky team – if they play like they did in the 1H last week that is. Whatever happened in the 2H, they play like that, they could lose to anyone.




Like YSU vs Valpo. YSU and Valpo played Valpo 4 times and Penguins have outscored them 230-30. It was 52-10 last year but just 17-10 HT. Valpo’s somewhat decent QB Michael Appel looks like he is out to start this season after some kind of injury or surgery. He was definitely out last week and I haven’t seen anything about him being back this week. In his absence Valpo’s other two QBs combined for just 8-of-18 passing. As a team Valpo only picked up 5 first downs last week. YSU should beat Valpo as easily or easier than Northern Iowa did. UNI failed to cover the 31 point spread winning 35-7 yet they owned a 481-124 TY edge (6.7-3.4)! Last year this number got bet up to 33.5. That was a better YSU team. Although if Appel is out that means Valpo is worse. Not sure anyone who sets these lines or bets these games knows or cares who is playing QB for Valpo - he does make their O quite a bit better though. This is about YSU’s run game dominating and their inexperienced D should fare better vs a weak offense like Valpo’s. If the line comes out where Massey has it would have to pass as that is 37.5! The Sagarin -27 is a good starting point and pretty much where I think it started at last year.
 
Nothing of interest to me in the catch just posted but wouldn’t be surprised to see UTC keep it within the 11.5 number. Just not enough points for me to bite.
 
New lines posted tonight at FD…again, none are of interest to me but wouldn’t be surprised to see Samford head towards 38.

BC -34.5
Wisky -21.5
WVU -33.5 105
Samford +36.5 105
JMU -32.5
WKU -20.5
UTC +11.5
 
Wisconsin opened at 25.5 FD I believe before the drop to 21.5. 25.5 was still the number at MyBookie when I last looked
 
s--k said:
Wisconsin opened at 25.5 FD I believe before the drop to 21.5. 25.5 was still the number at MyBookie when I last looked
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Not sure how late I was with these as I was with the wife and decided to check while taking the dog out haha
 
carolinablue said:
Not sure how late I was with these as I was with the wife and decided to check while taking the dog out haha
Click to expand...

There's been some movement on the WVU number. It went down to 30.5 at FD and I think 31.5 at MB then back up to 33.5 at FD
 
If you have multiple outlets there is definitely a delay on how they move lines. Last week Montana State had been 27.5 for days yet as of last Saturday morning Heritage still had 23.5. That ended up being a very important difference.
 
s--k said:
If you have multiple outlets there is definitely a delay on how they move lines. Last week Montana State had been 27.5 for days yet as of last Saturday morning Heritage still had 23.5. That ended up being a very important difference.
Click to expand...
I really just wanted USD at more than 20 and only US book I have available right now that has them is DK. Got 22.5.

Customer service issues with Fanduel means no using them unless I absolutely have to
 
KJ said:
I really just wanted USD at more than 20 and only US book I have available right now that has them is DK. Got 22.5.

Customer service issues with Fanduel means no using them unless I absolutely have to
Click to expand...

I had zero insight into it, but once I saw that it dropped at FD and was still +25.5 at MyBookie I took it for a small bet just because
 
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I feel like I need to go to bed but can't because lines going to be rolling out all night
 
carolinablue said:
Same with TCU 45.5
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Who are TCU playing? For some reason in the back of my mind I thought fading them was a good idea this week but I know it wasn't because they were going to be 45 point favorites so I must be off a week
 
KJ said:
Who are TCU playing? For some reason in the back of my mind I thought fading them was a good idea this week but I know it wasn't because they were going to be 45 point favorites so I must be off a week
Click to expand...
Long Island
 
Lines moving on SMISS and UTEP. Tempting to take both to get ahead of movement but not sure I want both on my card
 
carolinablue said:
Sorry for taking over the thread man, just up so figured I would post em as I see em
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I'm happy you were posting. I had to go to bed. UNLV too high for that kind of team

NTex and Ov came out a little higher than expected but I played both for smaller still

MyBookie has Kent only -14 vs St Francis. Pretty low, but it's Kent. Will see if movement from last year happens again.

MyBookie also suggesting they will line 3 Dll 12:00 games today
 
s--k said:
I'm happy you were posting. I had to go to bed. UNLV too high for that kind of team

NTex and Ov came out a little higher than expected but I played both for smaller still

MyBookie has Kent only -14 vs St Francis. Pretty low, but it's Kent. Will see if movement from last year happens again.

MyBookie also suggesting they will line 3 Dll 12:00 games today
Click to expand...
Yeah I had to take Kent as I watched almost all of the Pitt game (I had Pitt so had to sweat a bit) and I just think Kent will pull away in the 2nd half plus they have a couple playmakers on that team that should be able to overmatch St Fran
 
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