A lot of those SP+ lines are pretty whacked
maddox has shown some more movement on the FCS 5dimes lines now
I had thought I would be playing Chattanooga here as a partial play on them and against Kennesaw, but their D just got shredded last week, and it was supposed to be good! Line moved from 8.5 down to 6.5 now. It was all big plays for Kennesaw last week vs Tusculum, wouldn't think they get those this week, but after what North Alabama did...surely this D is capable of clamping it down, ? The game at North Alabama is hard to explain from the Moc's D perspective. Moc's O did start slow with their new, never played before QB, however they came back from a 21-0 hole to take a 27-21 lead early 4Q. They just couldn't stop N Ala. AFter they retook the lead, Chatt was stopped on 4th-4 1 yard short at the NA10 with under 2min left and then N Ala ripped a 81y TD run for the final margin. So I think that Chatt's going to have their O ready for this one (only 35y and 5 punts to open the game last week). Kennesaw is supposed to be a fade team this year as they transition from the triple option to a pistol-based spread offense while transitioning to FBS next year (Kennesaw is playing independent schedule this year and is not part of a conference officially). I think Chatt can get after them and will hopefully be able to get a better line if it keeps dropping.
Elon at Garner Webb is pretty interesting. GW was much better than I thought they would be at App St. Their new QB who was previously their backup played well and they ran it on App as well, which again I did not expect because their OL looked to be down, but they ran for a better ypc than App and their QB was 65% on 46 attempts for 231y. GW actually had a 2Q lead only trailed by 4 at HT and twice took a lead in the 3Q. But an INT set up App deep in GW territory and that was it as it got away from them losing 24-45. App only outgained them by 34y. GW D which was expected to be very good still did yield almost 400y to App, but were able to created some negtive plays with a couple sacks and 6 TFLs (App did not create such plays behind the LOS with their D). 3 of those TFLs were by reigning Big South D POY DE French. Their RB Brown was actually Big South O POW. Pretty good showing as a big road dog with a lot of questions on offense. Now they are a small home dog to Elon who opened at WF and struggled offensively. WF outgained them 427-251 and Elon's only scores were a 49y TD run and a 50y pick-six. They converted just 2-of-16 3rd downs. It would've been worse but WF scored just 2 TDs on 5 RZ trips. Elon is breaking in a new starting QB as well, and like GW, they are going with last year's backup. Elon's D lost 7 of their top 8 tacklers and as a team they lost 7 of their 10 All CAA players, while GW loses 4 of thier 6 All Big South players on O, they return all 7 of their All Conf players on D. Elon won this game last year 30-24 at home as 14 pt favorite. Elon led 20-3, but GW came back to lead 24-20. Elon scored the final 10 pts and had a big yardage edge. Gardner Webb answered their offensive questions last week and the D for GW should be stronger here than what Elon is left with. This is a good spot for GW to get a home win, especially as a +3.5 dog at the early line which has gone up from 2.5 to 3.5. GW last beat them at home in 2021 and has covered the last two as dogs.
Mercer vs Morehead St has been mentioned already. Morehead allowed West Virginia State to outgain them 457-424 (7.4-5.5). Morehead did turn it over 3x in that one, but still only winning by 2 vs a Dll school even if they aren't necessarily a bad one. I can't over think this and will lay the 34.5 hopefully not much higher. Mercer has a good D the Ole Miss game notwithstanding and their offense has to just be wanting to explode vs a lesser team. Mercer beat them 63-13 last year - even other Pioneer League teams put it on them (Butler beat them by 36 and Dayton by 22)
