Week 17 Westgate Lookahead Lines/ BetOnline Openers and Discussion

KingKrunked said:
Chiefs a 2 TD favorite? We will have half our team sitting and only won by 7 in a tight one against Oakland earlier in the year (we didnt cover then either.) I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see Oakland take it to the wire and even win. We've not be playing very well since we got rid of Hunt... :*( I'll probably take Oak here
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Gruden coaching mismatch vs Reid.

Kc magic is over- 4 games vs good teams all losses.

Carr and company dominate chiefs. Mahomes magic is over now.
 
What teams will pack it in and not show up this week? There's always a couple and they are usually road teams who faded down the stretch with nothing to play for in week 17...

Let's look at the suspects:

Dolphins @ Bills
Falcons @ Bucs
Cowboys @ Giants
Panthers @ Saints
Jets @ Pats
Jags @ Texans
Lions @ Packers
Eagles @ Skins
Chargers @ Broncos
Raiders @ Chiefs
Bears @ Vikings
Browns @ Ravens
49ers @ Rams
Bengals @ Steelers
Cards @ Seahawks
Colts @ Titans

OK, let's toss the obvious teams that have something to play for...Colts, Bears, Eagles, Chargers. I'm also tossing the Browns because they are playing with fire.

Remaining:

Dolphins @ Bills
Falcons @ Bucs
Cowboys @ Giants
Panthers @ Saints
Jets @ Pats
Jags @ Texans
Lions @ Packers
Raiders @ Chiefs
49ers @ Rams
Bengals @ Steelers
Cards @ Seahawks

Now let's find some teams that are fading down the stretch:

Dolphins 2-4, pair of clunkers in weeks 15 & 16
Jets 1-8, losing but not getting blown out the past month. Coach probably done.
Cowboys, won a bunch coming home but probably resting starters for playoffs TOSS
Panthers 0-7, no Cam
Jags 2-4 coming home but a ton of other losses behind it. Played hard to beat Miami on road last week. TOSS
Atl 2-4 coming home with losses behind it...has won last 2 games. TOSS
Lions 2-4 coming home, lost last 2, QB banged up
Bengals 1-6 coming home, QB, both good WRs, TE all out.
Raiders 3-3, just won emotional game at home. TOSS
Niners, 2-4 coming home
Cards 1-6 coming home, getting drilled. Coach will be fired.

Who's left after the tosses with spreads:

Dolphins +3.5 @ Buffalo
Jets +13.5 @ NE
Panthers No spread yet @ NO
Lions +7.5 @ GB
Bengals +14.5 @ Pitt
Niners +10 @ LAR
Cards No spread yet @ Sea

^^^^There's a couple of quitters above. Our job is to figure out who it is...

I would personally toss the Bengals +14.5 just cuz I don't lay more than 14 without very special conditions.

How I'd rank them on likeliness to quit:

Cards
Lions Panthers
Dolphins Jets
Niners
 
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If I had to guess, I'd say quitters would be Lions, Panthers, Fish. Seems lines are projecting as such though. Lions have wrapped up to 5 pick with another loss, perhaps even get better pick with another loss. They are a completely dysfunctional team and Rodgers looked like he really gave shit last week and the team showed pride to gut out the win at NYJ when they could have easily packed it in. A-Rod playing with something to prove. Saints should be sitting the squad at some point during the game. If its cold and nasty in Buffalo I have no idea why that MIA team will want anything to do with that game, other than the Bills offense just stinking. But buy down to 3, I'd lay with the Bills, reluctantly but on the sole premise MIA has packed it in after that pathetic loss last week.
 
raems said:
Jags have the best of the 4 units on the field Sunday and are getting more than a full score, playing what amounts to their super bowl as they get to turn Houston into a Wild Card team. I’m expecting that game to be a coin flip.

Vikes can name it. Bears are too smart, they’ll know that even with a contested win the Rams aren’t losing on their end and they don’t wanna show Minnesota everything with the high probability they play again round 1.

Browns Ravens another coinflip imo. Browns fighting for a lot themselves this week.
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agree on CLE and like them the most this week along with ATL.

Do not agree with the Jags as they have no QB to take advantage of the HOU secondary and the HOU DL will feast on Bortles while the JAX defense is as much in the quit camp as anybody. HOU may have warts, but Hopkins is incredible and Watson's escape ability is starting to resemble Russell Wilson. The intradivision stuff matters and those games are closer than others, but i'm not sure this is anything close to a super bowl as this team seems focused on tee times
 
divisional games make it tougher to see teams throw in the towel as they are the closest thing to rivalry games and it seems to me that those are where the survivor pools go down in flames every year. I think CAR is a prime candidate, but the broom sent to the CAR locker room and NO sitting everyone they can diminishes that opportunity.

ARI is playing for their rumored to be fired coach who they want to retain, and who knows what's going on with Fitz as well. I think MIA is the best candidate for a lot of the reasons listed, but idk how you can lay even a FG with a QB who can't throw like Josh Allen no matter how good the BUF defense is

Would also agree that Rodgers isn't gonna quit this week after saying all that stuff last week so long as they don't hold him out of the game (they should). DET with Stafford banged up and no skill positions makes sense, but that spread is above 7 so yeah right

I like NYJ and think they may make my card
 
GWarner27 said:
divisional games make it tougher to see teams throw in the towel as they are the closest thing to rivalry games and it seems to me that those are where the survivor pools go down in flames every year. I think CAR is a prime candidate, but the broom sent to the CAR locker room and NO sitting everyone they can diminishes that opportunity.

ARI is playing for their rumored to be fired coach who they want to retain, and who knows what's going on with Fitz as well. I think MIA is the best candidate for a lot of the reasons listed, but idk how you can lay even a FG with a QB who can't throw like Josh Allen no matter how good the BUF defense is

Would also agree that Rodgers isn't gonna quit this week after saying all that stuff last week so long as they don't hold him out of the game (they should). DET with Stafford banged up and no skill positions makes sense, but that spread is above 7 so yeah right

I like NYJ and think they may make my card
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As much as we as fans can see that Bowles is a bad coach, apparently from what I hear the team loves him and loves playing for him and they are 100% committed to playing their hardest to save his job. last 2 weeks they have played well and Darnold is looking much better. Think they are a very good side
 
man im having a hard time finding a play here, week 17 could be the toughest. Maybe some unders, as these games tend to play out like preseason games.

-Detroit might not score, but GB has no motivation at all. This will be ugly
-Dallas getting 6 now, obviously going to play backups. last season they played backups week 17 against the eagles and it was a slop fest. possibly under here
-Atl/Tampa who fucking knows. Maybe an over if both qbs just say screw it and air it out all day trying to set personal records?
-Jets are playing well enough to be the only play, def cant play 13.5 with the pats right now
-Miami buffalo...yuck. im shocked that my buffalo under 5.5 wins bet is now in jeopardy. may have to hope Miami scores first and then in game bet buffalo to get off of that bet
-Jacksonville if nothing else has a mean defense who will want to showu p and hurt the Texans division hopes. The question is, can you trust Kessler to take advantage of the depleted Houston defense. On the road nonetheless. I actually think under 40.5 is a pretty strong play here.
-SF/LA who knows how much LA is gonna try for the whole game. maybe LA 1h. mcvey may wanna get off to a hot start so the starters can sit out 2h
-Chicago/Minny is a fishy line, but I think it tells you what you need to know. I would kill for a Chicago win but I don't think they want to win; changes at a bye are very slim and they should prefer to play Minnesota again at home than the Eagles
-Eagles should win the game, but the 6.5 pt spread currently scares me. Looks like it is begging for eagles money and teaser money
-I actually think the Steelers will put up 35+ and cover the 14.5 against Cincy.
-LAC/Denver...no feel
-Oakland won their last home game and possibly last game ever in Oakland, and I think they are good with that. KC can name the score. Only question is how hard they try
-Cle/Baltimore should be a fun one. no feel for the line

initial leans:

Det/GB under 44.5
Dallas/Giants under 43.5
Atl/TB over 49.5
Pittsburgh -14.5
KC -13.5
Rams 1h
 
Packers have been very competitive since interim coach, looks like they want to finish strong maybe avenge loss to Detroit
 
D-Woww said:
They lost to the bears and barely beat the Jets in OT while letting Sam Darnold throw all over them
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They tied the Bears late and were very competitive. They were down late in second half and fought back to win, that‘s very resilient. Bears were very motivated by revenge, Jets to keep coach, yet Pack showed will to win. Lions don‘t even have any motivational edge, do they? (Genuinely asking) Save Patricia lol?

They beat Atlanta good the week before.
 
I don't think the lions have any motivation whatsoever, just don't think packers do either and wouldn't shock me if we see some kizer. I don't like the lions or anything, its just a stay away for me aside from maybe the under
 
I think that‘s definitely what they should do. I don‘t get why Rodgers played last week either? Is Rodgers making all the decisions?
 
Thought I heard somewhere that Rodgers wanted to play knowing that a bunch of Packers/Badgers fans had booked Christmas trips to NYC to see their teams and he wanted to play his part. If that's true or not, I don't know but makes a bunch of sense.
 
D-Woww said:
As much as we as fans can see that Bowles is a bad coach, apparently from what I hear the team loves him and loves playing for him and they are 100% committed to playing their hardest to save his job. last 2 weeks they have played well and Darnold is looking much better. Think they are a very good side
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agree with the end of this, but i'm starting to wonder if we just always hear the team fighting for the coach who's likely out
 
KJ said:
Thought I heard somewhere that Rodgers wanted to play knowing that a bunch of Packers/Badgers fans had booked Christmas trips to NYC to see their teams and he wanted to play his part. If that's true or not, I don't know but makes a bunch of sense.
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Then he‘ll care hopefully about giving the fans on Sunday a win
 
@D-Woww i think you're way to into the teams who need wins for the playoffs all of a sudden resting starters 2H if they have a big enough lead. I think you should treat them as fighting until the end because this is a pretty competitive league and we have all division games this weekend
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Then he‘ll care hopefully about giving the fans on Sunday a win
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The key part of that I'd think is the f'n expensive holiday trip to NYC lol...no clue if he plays all of this one

And do playoff teams even still rest players anymore considering those teams tended to suck if they did that?
 
B.A.R. said:
Lions will win because it would kill draft position.
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That is something though, not talking Lions per se but coaches who pretty much know they're gone obviously don't care about draft position and will likely do everything they can to win the final game
 
GWarner27 said:
@D-Woww i think you're way to into the teams who need wins for the playoffs all of a sudden resting starters 2H if they have a big enough lead. I think you should treat them as fighting until the end because this is a pretty competitive league and we have all division games this weekend
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eh,maybe. the thing is you have teams like the rams who are playing at home against a team that has struggled (though I still respect the job nick mullens has done), you can't tell me that Chicago isn't going to take a peek to see if LA is up 21-3 at halftime or something and allow that to impact their 2h game plan. cant risk losing a key player due to injury in a spot like that.

in fact, the more I think about it, the more I really do think Chicago mails it in. Yes, they COULD get a bye if the rams lost at home and they won, but they know that probably isn't going to happen and the likelihood of a key player getting hurt is greater than the likelihood of the rams losing this game. And I think they would rather play the Vikings at home then have Philly come in all confident that they are going to repeat last years Foles magic.

I think it absolutely is something that needs to be taken into consideration
 
aw man, kyle allen is gonna end up crazy high on the list of most random qbs who ever started a regular season game
 
KJ said:
That is something though, not talking Lions per se but coaches who pretty much know they're gone obviously don't care about draft position and will likely do everything they can to win the final game
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Wouldn‘t that apply to Philbin as well?
 
I saw a picture of Patricia dressed for work in the sloppiest, most unprofessional way possible. Dunno if he‘s always been like that or just doesn’t gaf now but that can‘t be good for public perception
 
KJ said:
The key part of that I'd think is the f'n expensive holiday trip to NYC lol...no clue if he plays all of this one

And do playoff teams even still rest players anymore considering those teams tended to suck if they did that?
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i think the rust concern is just a media story, instead the organizations consider playing someone in a meaningless game and subjecting him to injury being far worse for their title chances
 
GWarner27 said:
i think the rust concern is just a media story, instead the organizations consider playing someone in a meaningless game and subjecting him to injury being far worse for their title chances
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The worst thing a team can do is play while fearing injury. Sure-fire way to get injured. If a starter plays he‘s gonna have to be motivated and into the game
 
D-Woww said:
eh,maybe. the thing is you have teams like the rams who are playing at home against a team that has struggled (though I still respect the job nick mullens has done), you can't tell me that Chicago isn't going to take a peek to see if LA is up 21-3 at halftime or something and allow that to impact their 2h game plan. cant risk losing a key player due to injury in a spot like that.

in fact, the more I think about it, the more I really do think Chicago mails it in. Yes, they COULD get a bye if the rams lost at home and they won, but they know that probably isn't going to happen and the likelihood of a key player getting hurt is greater than the likelihood of the rams losing this game. And I think they would rather play the Vikings at home then have Philly come in all confident that they are going to repeat last years Foles magic.

I think it absolutely is something that needs to be taken into consideration
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the resting players 2H when the bye is out of reach makes total sense, but who says that 21-10 is too much of a blowout to rest your guys? That's still a reasonably close game, i think we trust the teams who have something to play for will play their guys until it's clearly out of reach. That could be long enough to cover the spread, especially if their 1s have the lead and CHI was up 22-6 on MIN in the first meeting before Cousins got his Bortles on

VirginiaCavs said:
Jags will start Bortles lol. So dumb. So Jags wanna win
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the coaches and players want to win so they don't get fired, they're not worried about the draft

VirginiaCavs said:
I saw a picture of Patricia dressed for work in the sloppiest, most unprofessional way possible. Dunno if he‘s always been like that or just doesn’t gaf now but that can‘t be good for public perception
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doubt he gets fired after only one season especially when they were liquidating assets (Tate) mid-season
 
GWarner27 said:
i think the rust concern is just a media story, instead the organizations consider playing someone in a meaningless game and subjecting him to injury being far worse for their title chances
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I always loved betting against teams who rested players in the playoffs, just not sure it happens anymore. No clue how the media portrayed it, never really heard that. I know I liked that angle and still do if it exists
 
Bears have been an excellent 1H team all year. Maybe they come out hard (and we get them at plus!) then see the Rams winning big and chill out late
 
Capaholic said:
You are such a clown lol.
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Sammy Meatballs said:
Gruden coaching mismatch vs Reid.

Kc magic is over- 4 games vs good teams all losses.

Carr and company dominate chiefs. Mahomes magic is over now.
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Capaholic I do believe this is a coaching mismatch.

Gruden has a super bowl ring. Reid does not. When these guys go to social functions they look at rings. Rings is like the score board.

Sure Kc has more offensive talent and better play calling but once Gruden drafts his guys like Nick Bosa and the stud 6’9 Buffalo QB from the Mac I think Gruden is going to dominate the division.

In critical situations you can’t seriously tell me that Reid woukd be on Grudens level. Gruden is a smart guy. One of the smartest in the league.
He got rid of Mack and Cooper and perhaps Carr next.
He realizes to build a contender he has to do it through the draft with young first round stars and a qb on a rookie contract.
Now he has first rounders stock piled. I expect this team to be dominant in 2-3 seasons.
 
my three for now, debating locking in ATL as i think they could close favorites but I want to be sure Julio plays as his absence would give me more points. CLE trending up and i think that may be one of our spoilers, NYJ is pretty much anti-NE and this was a much closer game than the first meeting's final score suggested

ATL +1.5
CLE +6.5
NYJ +13.5
 
Ravens lose before Eagles IMO. Rookie QB against a hungry team in pretty good form striving for a winning season. Think Philly wins going away. Wash is done and struggled at home this season even when healthy. My plays so far:

Clev +6
Phi -6 (-120)
NYJ +14 (-120)
 
Will also be playing Pit in some fashion. Prob Tease them with someone, just haven’t found the right partner yet.
 
Parlay NYG, KC, NO, NE, Philly, Buffalo, Pitt, Seattle, LA Rams ML.... Walk back to counter..... Collect $

I'm not doing it lol. But just saying
 
Capaholic said:
Don’t understand the Bears line. They can still get the bye

I put in Bears +6.5. Will buy off later in week if it looks like they aren’t trying to win for some reason.
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In same boat, made no sense to me. With as competitive niners been lately and both playing same time slot makes no sense for them not to be going all out. I suppose if they see rams up big at halftime they might choose to call off the dogs. Only thing that worries me is wouldn’t these teams play again in WC round if rams do get the 2? Maybe that makes Nagy more reluctant to show them much?
 
Big daddy naught said:
Yes I know my Titans have never beaten Luck in his career, 0-10, and it could possibly be Gabbert starting at qb or if Mariota plays he won’t be 100%, but come on man, at home give me the titans ML here. They will be amped up, have been good at home and their D will show up and Henry will run over Leonard and the colts d for a win.
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I jumped all over colts when it came out at -2.5. Maybe I could see a case for ten at +3.5 but give me one the best qbs in the league, nfl set up for them to beat run games and defense.
 
Big daddy naught said:
Prob won’t know Mariota’s status until at least wed, they might not even disclose it until gametime. It depends on whether he has feeling in that arm or not. Either way, tenn success is run run run.
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Or another way to put it is either way both qbs kinda suck.
 
Big daddy naught said:
In all seriousness, homer aside, tenn plays a lot of close games, and don’t see this being any different. I see them being ahead or close enough to win the game in the 4th q, and being at home I like their chances to pull it out. Being dogged at home, where they are 6-1, no matter who starts at qb is disrespectful to say the least, and they will use that as added motivation. Trust me.
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You don’t think Indy just as motivated? I’ll love if it close, close gm give me the qb who wins games. They would have been insane to make Indy dogs, they been at risk of paying out a ton of plus money.
 
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