ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Getting down the quick summaries.....also biggest main slate slate to date, injuries/Ttotals are from 12/31, everything is out of 16. I may have some injuries/starters wrong, so help out when you see it!
1PMs
TBB/NYJ
TBB DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is T-6th.
Z. Wilson has the 5th worst ASR matchup, 4th for main slate. Brady has the 4th best ASR matchup.
Rojo has the 3rd best ALY matchup, 2nd of main slate. Carter? has the T-7th worst ALY matchup, T-6th for main slate.
- TBB - 1st week w/o LB (Barrett), CB (Dean), CB (Murphy-Bunting), 2nd week w/o DE (O'connor), LB (David). CB (Sherman), and S (Winfield) are both Q.
- NYJ - 1st week w/o DT (Williams), CB (Hall), LB (Davis), 2nd week w/o S (Neasman), --- On OL, no McGovern.
DFS Notable injuries
No Fournette/Bernard, Godwin/Evans?? (not sure if he'll be activated, but need to take note). AB is Q.
No Coleman, no Wesco/Kroft/Griffin, no Moore. Crowder Q.
WEATHER - Chance of rain, nothing serious
Carter played his most snaps all year, 74%, and coleman, who's now out, played 33%.... there's a chance at 80%~ snaps here at a cheap price... not off the table in ppr formats.
Not sure who at WR i'd want, but the script is good, as well as the matchup (assuming those corners are out, and maybe more of the secondary....) Berrios led last week, but crowder could be back too. them 2 and cole would be only ones to even consider.
Rojo played just 52% of snaps, but still has 23 combined carries/targets... and they led by 2+ possessions since half, he has an even better matchup sunday. KeShawn played 36% and had 8 carries/targets.
Gronk is a 90% snap guy, but meh, without the big WRs teams may be just shutting him down... he can go 2 tds+ but I think i'd rather look elsewhere.
AB can be played with confidence. I think I want me some perriman if he's active..... Grayson played more than Johnson, probably won't consider either if perriman is in. (thisd is assuming evans is still out too).
ATL/BUF
ATL DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is T-8th.
Allen has the best ASR matchup.
Singletary has the T-8th best ALY matchup, T-6th for m/s. Patterson has the T-3rd worst ALY matchup.
- ATL - 1st week w/o LB (Copeland), LB (Vaughters), S (Grant), S (Hawkins), DE (Bollard), . 2nd week w/o DT (Davison). 3rd week w/o S (Harris).
- BUF - On OL, no Boettger, got hurt in middle of last game.
DFS Notable injuries
No Sharpe, Hurst
Sanders is Q.
WEATHER - Snow is likely, 10-15 mph winds is the bigger point (not that it's terrible, but not ideal...)
I won't tell you not to play patterson, but he's closer to a 5050 split than most realize.... this could be the type of game where short throws and positive game script could lead to good PPR value... but I probably won't have it. Same could be said about pitts, but he's not taking up a RB spot, and should see a very slight uptick in snaps/targets with hurst out again. Gage/Zacchaues are fine game stacks if you're multi-entering but I wouldn't go here first/overboard at all.
Moss is back and singletary went down to about 2/3rd's role. not bad, but again, not wasting a RB spot on this backfield. We need to know sanders health, but Diggs >>>>> Davis >> Knox >> no more interest, most would be done with Allen stacks if I go this route.
NYG/CHI
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U is 16th.
Fields is 10th worst ASR matchup, 9th of m/s. Glennon? is 9th worst ASR matchup, 8th of m/s.
Barkley? has 10th worst ALY matchup, 9th of m/s.
- NYG - On D, 1st week w/o (S) Love, DT (Lawrence), 2nd week w/o DT (Shelton), and 1 CB/1 DT (Jackson, Johnson) are Q. On OL, Price is D, and no Cunningham/Peart. Solder is Q.
- CHI - On D, 2nd week w/o CB (Tabor), 3rd week w/o (CB) Crawford, and 2 DT's/1 CB (Hicks, Goldman, Shelley) are Q. On OL, Peters is Q.
DFS Notable injuries
No Toney/Ross/Johnson/Slayton/Shepard (5 WRs). No Dimes.
Fields looks to be out, as Dalton named starter.
WEATHER - 10-15 MPH winds. Cold
Montgomery can be considered, he's an at minimum 80% snap guy, who really has tough matchup after tough matchup, and still tends to produce 100~ total yard games. In 7 games without a TD this season, he's got double digit fantasy points in 5 of them. I believe the bears were dogs in all of them but one (without checking).... he finally has a matchup thats more exploitable than usual. He has a wide range, which is good for tourneys.
If he doesn't do well, you can create another lineup with Fields + Moone and/or Kmet (kmet is an every down TE right now). They combined for 40%+ of target share, and 55%+ of air yards share..... robinson/byrd are deep, off my list.
No to Engram.... and for those that have been here, you know that the barkley/booker combo is painful to back 1 as they've been in a 5050 split, well last week was even worse for barkley... as the snaps went as followed. Booker/Barkley/Penny --- 54/34/17%.
Golladay may be a ppr magnet this week.... as I think they'll be playing from behind, and there is no other WRs on this team left. 10+ Targets is more of a reality than less.
KCC/CIN
KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D. meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th. O/U is 2nd (top 2 are 4+ points above 3rd).
Mahomes has the 8th best ASR matchup, 7th of m/s.
Mixon has the 7th best ALY matchup, 5th of m/s.
- KCC - None
- CIN - 1st week w/o LB (Pratt), CB (Waynes), DE (Sample), CB (Davis). 2nd week w/o LB (Bachie)
DFS Notable injuries
Helaire is Q --- this is important to know.
Great O/U, despite the pace.... both teams can be explosive. If Helaire is out, I have interest in Dar. Williams, otherwise pace on the backfield.
I think we find a way to get Kelce here... cincy's been vulnerable to TE's... and we know he has the highest ceiling by a mile (I know kittle/andrews would try to have a word).
I feel like I want Hill.. hopefully a full week of practice post sunday covid scaries, and people being scared to take him.
We have to take a stand in Cincy... do we fade mixon and his newly acquired 80%+ snap share, or do we fade the WRs, than can easily go 10+/100+/1+ .... I think I want the WRs (Higgins/Chase ---- sorry boyd) over mixon.... but an argument can be made either way.
WEATHER - 10-15 mph winds. Cold.
MIA/TEN
MIA DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 13th. O/U is 14th.
Tanny has the worst ASR matchup. Tua has the 8th worst, 7th of m/s.
- MIA - On D, 1st week w/o S (Jones), DT (Butler),
- TEN - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Dupree), CB (Skrine), LB (Brown), DE (Autry). LB/DT (Roberson, Murchison) are Q.
DFS Notable injuries
No Julio.
From a volume perspective, AJ can be considered, his snaps should rise closer to 80%+, and could be a target hog as well. I do think they play from behind as well.... Just don't love the matchup, nor the pace/OU.
I made comments last week how mcnichols should be the snap leader last week, and he was... but this backfield is a nightmare to predict for DFS/Props... I'd avoid it altogether UNLESS you believe tennesse can play with a lead... then I'd look at one of their backs as a low owned leverage play (foreman>hillard)... but no thank you.
Pass on Gesicki... its like the barkley/booker thing... Smythe is sapping up to much of his juice. Pass on the backfield... even in a slow game they played with a lead, duke/gaskin/lindsay all played between 29-35% of snaps.... OUCH.
Waddle is the only monster I'd consider, as he's also a PPR machine, and tua continues to improve his connection with him it seems every week. Vs the toughest of tests last week (Where he was the only option), he still produced a 10 catch, 12 target game, the competition should only get easier from here.
WEATHER - 10-15 mph winds.
LVR/IND
LVR DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D. bad vs RB D.
IND DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 16th. O/U T-8th.
Wentz has the T-5th best ASR matchup, 5th of m/s. Carr has T-9th best ASR matchup, T-8th of m/s.
- LVR - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Hayward Jr.), LB (Littleton), LB (Perryman), DT (Philon), LB (Onwuasor), DE (Nassib) 2nd week w/o S (Abram), 3rd week w/o CB (Mullen). DT (Hankins) is Q.
- IND - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Carrie), 2nd week w/o S (Sendejo). On OL, Glowinski is Q. ---- side note, there longsnapper is out.
DFS Notable injuries
No Waller.
Maybe no Wentz??? Doyle is Q.
During these times of the year, people tend to look at dome games for stacking over outdoor, possibly bad weather, games. LVR has some serious players missing on D, and I can see IND manhandling the line of scrimmage. I think taylor can surely be considered. While there can be gamestacks mixed in throughout this offense... I can see a reason to fade him and maybe play ehlinger + pittman, maybe + allie cox if no doyle. Last week he saw 90% of snaps, and raiders are bottom 8 in FPs given up to TE's.
Depending on the route you go above, will be reliant on how competitive the raiders keep it.... they are 7 point dogs, so you'd be inclined to do pass catching bring backs. Did renfrow get hurt last week? I don't know how he sees 58% of snaps (his lowest, by a lot, since week 7.), and they played from behind/was within 1 possession the whole time. I think moreau is a safe punt too, as an everydown TE, and IND is also bottom 8 in FPs given up to TEs.
But! without looking at salary, raiders seem to be getting back into the run first mentality, and jacobs is seeing 70%~+ of snaps last 4 weeks, and has a relatively safe floor. If you predict a raiders win/playing with a lead, doing Jacobs + Pittman can be a low owned pivot in this game/approach.
WEATHER - Dome
JAC/NEP
JAC DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NEP DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U is 12th.
Mac has the 3rd best ASR matchup.
Ogun? has the T-10th best ALY matchup, T-8th of m/s.
- JAC - On D, 1st week w/o DT (Brown), LB (Chaisson), DT (Hamilton), DE (Ward), DT (Tufele), S (Ford), S (Wingard), CB (Griffin). 2nd week w/o DE (McCray). On OL, no Richardson (first start last week), no Robinson/Norwell/Linder (3 best Olineman), Bartch out for 2nd straight week. Sidenote, punter is on covid. OUCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
- NEP - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Judon), LB (Bentley), LB (Uche), LB (King). They have a bunch of Q's that I'm not looking into as its billichek, and it's what he does.
DFS Notable injuries
No Arnold/Manhertz/Hollister/O'shaugnessy (all te's), no JRob,Hyde.
No Agholor, maybe no Dam Harris.
Oh man.... the Jags have been covid crushed. Now idk if bellichek trusts mac as much as we think... but he is in a great spot in terms of DVOA, and ASR, and they have the 4th highest Ttotal.... if multientering, atleast take a shot with Mac + Harry or Meyers (maybe Henry), or keep them as cheap one-off punts. I wish Stevenson OR Harris was out, we can then lock and load the other.... I do think I still want soem exposure to this backfield, just not sure who and how much if both are active. But 28+ points has to be scored by someone.
Is Luke Farrell starting at TE? Do we even trust the WRs? Maybe Ogunbanwale will be the only option to consider here, as he should see 90-100% of snaps with no compeititon... but he has a superrrrr wide range of outcomes here. and I'd think most are towards the low side. He finished with 82% last week, with robinson being at 15% before getting hurt. He'd be my only consideration.
WEATHER - its fine, chance of rain, meh.
PHI/WAS
PHI DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U is T-6th.
Scott? has the T-5th best ALY matchup, T-3rd of m/s.
- PHI - On D, 1st week w/o S (Chachere), DE (Barnett).
- WAS - On D, 2nd week w/o S (Collins), CB (Jackson), 3rd week w/o DT (Wise), S (Everett), On OL, no Flowers/Cosmi, still no Schweitzer/Larsen.
DFS Notable injuries
No Sanders, Howard is Q.
No McKissic/Gibson, No Thomas, Samual is Q.
No top 2 RBs, but also OL is in shambles. I know they were blown up, but I don't think that means they were sparing Patterson, but Jonathan Williams play 40% of snaps to Pattersons 25%.... I think this may be an avoid spot for me, and let others chase.
Bates seems to have surpassed RSJ at TE as well... him or nothing, as PHI is also bottom 8 in FPs given to TEs, and we know they can shutdown WR's.... I think I'm going the route of maybe pairing their D with a RB. Gainwell seems to be the lost man here... but if howard is out, I'll gladly fire up scott in most lineups... if he's in, I may sprinkle the 2.
Hurts can always be played naked, as he is a td vulture as well, or you can pair him with Devonta smith, who has had 40%~ of air yards past 4 weeks, Watkins could hit a deep one, but I'd prefer Smiths ability to do the same, as well as his volume over the others.
WEATHER - it's fine, chance of rain.
LAR/BAL
LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
BAL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 3rd.
Lamar? is T-3rd worst ASR matchup, T-2nd of m/s. Stafford has 2nd best ASR matchup.
Freeman has the 2nd worst ALY matchup.
- LAR - 1st week w/o LB (Jones). Couple of Q's... if anything, w/o LB (Floyd) as well, as he was added friday to Q.
- BAL - 1st week w/o CB (Averett), LB (Oweh). On OL, still no Powers/Philips,
DFS Notable injuries
No Henderson.
Lamar/Hollywood/Duvernay are all Q.
See burrow last week, but Stafford is in a sexy spot, and has a top 10 team total. And they don't come cheap. IMO this is where we want some exposure to either OBJ or Jefferson over Kupp... it provides leverage, and they have bigger aDOTs than kupp, by 4+ yards/target... we know homeruns can be hit vs this defense. Having said that, lets not lose sight of Michel now being thrown into a spot on a good offensive team, where he will have nobody eating into his snaps... here comes another 90%+ snap and may be a good pivot...but not sure of his price, but I'd play him if he's cheap enough. I may pass/underexpose myself either way, especially if he's expensive, because Baltimore is better vs the run than the pass, and LAR typically has a positive ALY push, and this week they don't... so that tells you something.... the 2nd/3rd wrs have more of my appeal. There's a lot of TEs in good spots, but Higbee isn't a bad idea either as a 90%+ snap guy too.
WEATHER - Chance of rain, 15~ MPH winds.
1PMs
TBB/NYJ
TBB DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is T-6th.
Z. Wilson has the 5th worst ASR matchup, 4th for main slate. Brady has the 4th best ASR matchup.
Rojo has the 3rd best ALY matchup, 2nd of main slate. Carter? has the T-7th worst ALY matchup, T-6th for main slate.
- TBB - 1st week w/o LB (Barrett), CB (Dean), CB (Murphy-Bunting), 2nd week w/o DE (O'connor), LB (David). CB (Sherman), and S (Winfield) are both Q.
- NYJ - 1st week w/o DT (Williams), CB (Hall), LB (Davis), 2nd week w/o S (Neasman), --- On OL, no McGovern.
DFS Notable injuries
No Fournette/Bernard, Godwin/Evans?? (not sure if he'll be activated, but need to take note). AB is Q.
No Coleman, no Wesco/Kroft/Griffin, no Moore. Crowder Q.
WEATHER - Chance of rain, nothing serious
Carter played his most snaps all year, 74%, and coleman, who's now out, played 33%.... there's a chance at 80%~ snaps here at a cheap price... not off the table in ppr formats.
Not sure who at WR i'd want, but the script is good, as well as the matchup (assuming those corners are out, and maybe more of the secondary....) Berrios led last week, but crowder could be back too. them 2 and cole would be only ones to even consider.
Rojo played just 52% of snaps, but still has 23 combined carries/targets... and they led by 2+ possessions since half, he has an even better matchup sunday. KeShawn played 36% and had 8 carries/targets.
Gronk is a 90% snap guy, but meh, without the big WRs teams may be just shutting him down... he can go 2 tds+ but I think i'd rather look elsewhere.
AB can be played with confidence. I think I want me some perriman if he's active..... Grayson played more than Johnson, probably won't consider either if perriman is in. (thisd is assuming evans is still out too).
ATL/BUF
ATL DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is T-8th.
Allen has the best ASR matchup.
Singletary has the T-8th best ALY matchup, T-6th for m/s. Patterson has the T-3rd worst ALY matchup.
- ATL - 1st week w/o LB (Copeland), LB (Vaughters), S (Grant), S (Hawkins), DE (Bollard), . 2nd week w/o DT (Davison). 3rd week w/o S (Harris).
- BUF - On OL, no Boettger, got hurt in middle of last game.
DFS Notable injuries
No Sharpe, Hurst
Sanders is Q.
WEATHER - Snow is likely, 10-15 mph winds is the bigger point (not that it's terrible, but not ideal...)
I won't tell you not to play patterson, but he's closer to a 5050 split than most realize.... this could be the type of game where short throws and positive game script could lead to good PPR value... but I probably won't have it. Same could be said about pitts, but he's not taking up a RB spot, and should see a very slight uptick in snaps/targets with hurst out again. Gage/Zacchaues are fine game stacks if you're multi-entering but I wouldn't go here first/overboard at all.
Moss is back and singletary went down to about 2/3rd's role. not bad, but again, not wasting a RB spot on this backfield. We need to know sanders health, but Diggs >>>>> Davis >> Knox >> no more interest, most would be done with Allen stacks if I go this route.
NYG/CHI
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U is 16th.
Fields is 10th worst ASR matchup, 9th of m/s. Glennon? is 9th worst ASR matchup, 8th of m/s.
Barkley? has 10th worst ALY matchup, 9th of m/s.
- NYG - On D, 1st week w/o (S) Love, DT (Lawrence), 2nd week w/o DT (Shelton), and 1 CB/1 DT (Jackson, Johnson) are Q. On OL, Price is D, and no Cunningham/Peart. Solder is Q.
- CHI - On D, 2nd week w/o CB (Tabor), 3rd week w/o (CB) Crawford, and 2 DT's/1 CB (Hicks, Goldman, Shelley) are Q. On OL, Peters is Q.
DFS Notable injuries
No Toney/Ross/Johnson/Slayton/Shepard (5 WRs). No Dimes.
Fields looks to be out, as Dalton named starter.
WEATHER - 10-15 MPH winds. Cold
Montgomery can be considered, he's an at minimum 80% snap guy, who really has tough matchup after tough matchup, and still tends to produce 100~ total yard games. In 7 games without a TD this season, he's got double digit fantasy points in 5 of them. I believe the bears were dogs in all of them but one (without checking).... he finally has a matchup thats more exploitable than usual. He has a wide range, which is good for tourneys.
If he doesn't do well, you can create another lineup with Fields + Moone and/or Kmet (kmet is an every down TE right now). They combined for 40%+ of target share, and 55%+ of air yards share..... robinson/byrd are deep, off my list.
No to Engram.... and for those that have been here, you know that the barkley/booker combo is painful to back 1 as they've been in a 5050 split, well last week was even worse for barkley... as the snaps went as followed. Booker/Barkley/Penny --- 54/34/17%.
Golladay may be a ppr magnet this week.... as I think they'll be playing from behind, and there is no other WRs on this team left. 10+ Targets is more of a reality than less.
KCC/CIN
KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D. meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th. O/U is 2nd (top 2 are 4+ points above 3rd).
Mahomes has the 8th best ASR matchup, 7th of m/s.
Mixon has the 7th best ALY matchup, 5th of m/s.
- KCC - None
- CIN - 1st week w/o LB (Pratt), CB (Waynes), DE (Sample), CB (Davis). 2nd week w/o LB (Bachie)
DFS Notable injuries
Helaire is Q --- this is important to know.
Great O/U, despite the pace.... both teams can be explosive. If Helaire is out, I have interest in Dar. Williams, otherwise pace on the backfield.
I think we find a way to get Kelce here... cincy's been vulnerable to TE's... and we know he has the highest ceiling by a mile (I know kittle/andrews would try to have a word).
I feel like I want Hill.. hopefully a full week of practice post sunday covid scaries, and people being scared to take him.
We have to take a stand in Cincy... do we fade mixon and his newly acquired 80%+ snap share, or do we fade the WRs, than can easily go 10+/100+/1+ .... I think I want the WRs (Higgins/Chase ---- sorry boyd) over mixon.... but an argument can be made either way.
WEATHER - 10-15 mph winds. Cold.
MIA/TEN
MIA DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
TEN DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 13th. O/U is 14th.
Tanny has the worst ASR matchup. Tua has the 8th worst, 7th of m/s.
- MIA - On D, 1st week w/o S (Jones), DT (Butler),
- TEN - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Dupree), CB (Skrine), LB (Brown), DE (Autry). LB/DT (Roberson, Murchison) are Q.
DFS Notable injuries
No Julio.
From a volume perspective, AJ can be considered, his snaps should rise closer to 80%+, and could be a target hog as well. I do think they play from behind as well.... Just don't love the matchup, nor the pace/OU.
I made comments last week how mcnichols should be the snap leader last week, and he was... but this backfield is a nightmare to predict for DFS/Props... I'd avoid it altogether UNLESS you believe tennesse can play with a lead... then I'd look at one of their backs as a low owned leverage play (foreman>hillard)... but no thank you.
Pass on Gesicki... its like the barkley/booker thing... Smythe is sapping up to much of his juice. Pass on the backfield... even in a slow game they played with a lead, duke/gaskin/lindsay all played between 29-35% of snaps.... OUCH.
Waddle is the only monster I'd consider, as he's also a PPR machine, and tua continues to improve his connection with him it seems every week. Vs the toughest of tests last week (Where he was the only option), he still produced a 10 catch, 12 target game, the competition should only get easier from here.
WEATHER - 10-15 mph winds.
LVR/IND
LVR DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D. bad vs RB D.
IND DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 16th. O/U T-8th.
Wentz has the T-5th best ASR matchup, 5th of m/s. Carr has T-9th best ASR matchup, T-8th of m/s.
- LVR - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Hayward Jr.), LB (Littleton), LB (Perryman), DT (Philon), LB (Onwuasor), DE (Nassib) 2nd week w/o S (Abram), 3rd week w/o CB (Mullen). DT (Hankins) is Q.
- IND - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Carrie), 2nd week w/o S (Sendejo). On OL, Glowinski is Q. ---- side note, there longsnapper is out.
DFS Notable injuries
No Waller.
Maybe no Wentz??? Doyle is Q.
During these times of the year, people tend to look at dome games for stacking over outdoor, possibly bad weather, games. LVR has some serious players missing on D, and I can see IND manhandling the line of scrimmage. I think taylor can surely be considered. While there can be gamestacks mixed in throughout this offense... I can see a reason to fade him and maybe play ehlinger + pittman, maybe + allie cox if no doyle. Last week he saw 90% of snaps, and raiders are bottom 8 in FPs given up to TE's.
Depending on the route you go above, will be reliant on how competitive the raiders keep it.... they are 7 point dogs, so you'd be inclined to do pass catching bring backs. Did renfrow get hurt last week? I don't know how he sees 58% of snaps (his lowest, by a lot, since week 7.), and they played from behind/was within 1 possession the whole time. I think moreau is a safe punt too, as an everydown TE, and IND is also bottom 8 in FPs given up to TEs.
But! without looking at salary, raiders seem to be getting back into the run first mentality, and jacobs is seeing 70%~+ of snaps last 4 weeks, and has a relatively safe floor. If you predict a raiders win/playing with a lead, doing Jacobs + Pittman can be a low owned pivot in this game/approach.
WEATHER - Dome
JAC/NEP
JAC DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NEP DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-8th. O/U is 12th.
Mac has the 3rd best ASR matchup.
Ogun? has the T-10th best ALY matchup, T-8th of m/s.
- JAC - On D, 1st week w/o DT (Brown), LB (Chaisson), DT (Hamilton), DE (Ward), DT (Tufele), S (Ford), S (Wingard), CB (Griffin). 2nd week w/o DE (McCray). On OL, no Richardson (first start last week), no Robinson/Norwell/Linder (3 best Olineman), Bartch out for 2nd straight week. Sidenote, punter is on covid. OUCHHHHHHHHHHHHH
- NEP - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Judon), LB (Bentley), LB (Uche), LB (King). They have a bunch of Q's that I'm not looking into as its billichek, and it's what he does.
DFS Notable injuries
No Arnold/Manhertz/Hollister/O'shaugnessy (all te's), no JRob,Hyde.
No Agholor, maybe no Dam Harris.
Oh man.... the Jags have been covid crushed. Now idk if bellichek trusts mac as much as we think... but he is in a great spot in terms of DVOA, and ASR, and they have the 4th highest Ttotal.... if multientering, atleast take a shot with Mac + Harry or Meyers (maybe Henry), or keep them as cheap one-off punts. I wish Stevenson OR Harris was out, we can then lock and load the other.... I do think I still want soem exposure to this backfield, just not sure who and how much if both are active. But 28+ points has to be scored by someone.
Is Luke Farrell starting at TE? Do we even trust the WRs? Maybe Ogunbanwale will be the only option to consider here, as he should see 90-100% of snaps with no compeititon... but he has a superrrrr wide range of outcomes here. and I'd think most are towards the low side. He finished with 82% last week, with robinson being at 15% before getting hurt. He'd be my only consideration.
WEATHER - its fine, chance of rain, meh.
PHI/WAS
PHI DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U is T-6th.
Scott? has the T-5th best ALY matchup, T-3rd of m/s.
- PHI - On D, 1st week w/o S (Chachere), DE (Barnett).
- WAS - On D, 2nd week w/o S (Collins), CB (Jackson), 3rd week w/o DT (Wise), S (Everett), On OL, no Flowers/Cosmi, still no Schweitzer/Larsen.
DFS Notable injuries
No Sanders, Howard is Q.
No McKissic/Gibson, No Thomas, Samual is Q.
No top 2 RBs, but also OL is in shambles. I know they were blown up, but I don't think that means they were sparing Patterson, but Jonathan Williams play 40% of snaps to Pattersons 25%.... I think this may be an avoid spot for me, and let others chase.
Bates seems to have surpassed RSJ at TE as well... him or nothing, as PHI is also bottom 8 in FPs given to TEs, and we know they can shutdown WR's.... I think I'm going the route of maybe pairing their D with a RB. Gainwell seems to be the lost man here... but if howard is out, I'll gladly fire up scott in most lineups... if he's in, I may sprinkle the 2.
Hurts can always be played naked, as he is a td vulture as well, or you can pair him with Devonta smith, who has had 40%~ of air yards past 4 weeks, Watkins could hit a deep one, but I'd prefer Smiths ability to do the same, as well as his volume over the others.
WEATHER - it's fine, chance of rain.
LAR/BAL
LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
BAL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 3rd.
Lamar? is T-3rd worst ASR matchup, T-2nd of m/s. Stafford has 2nd best ASR matchup.
Freeman has the 2nd worst ALY matchup.
- LAR - 1st week w/o LB (Jones). Couple of Q's... if anything, w/o LB (Floyd) as well, as he was added friday to Q.
- BAL - 1st week w/o CB (Averett), LB (Oweh). On OL, still no Powers/Philips,
DFS Notable injuries
No Henderson.
Lamar/Hollywood/Duvernay are all Q.
See burrow last week, but Stafford is in a sexy spot, and has a top 10 team total. And they don't come cheap. IMO this is where we want some exposure to either OBJ or Jefferson over Kupp... it provides leverage, and they have bigger aDOTs than kupp, by 4+ yards/target... we know homeruns can be hit vs this defense. Having said that, lets not lose sight of Michel now being thrown into a spot on a good offensive team, where he will have nobody eating into his snaps... here comes another 90%+ snap and may be a good pivot...but not sure of his price, but I'd play him if he's cheap enough. I may pass/underexpose myself either way, especially if he's expensive, because Baltimore is better vs the run than the pass, and LAR typically has a positive ALY push, and this week they don't... so that tells you something.... the 2nd/3rd wrs have more of my appeal. There's a lot of TEs in good spots, but Higbee isn't a bad idea either as a 90%+ snap guy too.
WEATHER - Chance of rain, 15~ MPH winds.
