Week 17 DFS/Props Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Sorry I’m so late today and driving now but I’ll try and post many mg plays I can think of.
RoJo ov 70.5 rush/td -110
Harris td -120
Montgomery ov 70.5 rush and td -110
Scott ov 41.5 rush
Kmet ov 30.5 rec
Hill ov 76.5 rec
Boyd ov 47.5 rec
Jefferson ov 42.5 (forget exact number)
Cooper over 59.5
3 man parlay +222
Mahomes ov 1.5 pass td
Allen ov 1.5 pass td
Taylor anytime td
RoJo ov 70.5 rush/td -110
Harris td -120
Montgomery ov 70.5 rush and td -110
Scott ov 41.5 rush
Kmet ov 30.5 rec
Hill ov 76.5 rec
Boyd ov 47.5 rec
Jefferson ov 42.5 (forget exact number)
Cooper over 59.5
3 man parlay +222
Mahomes ov 1.5 pass td
Allen ov 1.5 pass td
Taylor anytime td
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Looks like 3-1, unless Montgomery rips one.
Here's my top DFS lineup, Carter was on pace for a day too... needed a higgins TD.... but currently in the top 200 (out of 100K~ lineups)
4 PMs
I was looking for receptions on fant, couldn't find it... but playing the rec yds anyway.
A. Ekeler Rush Yds O57.5 -115
N. Fant Rec Yds. O35.5 -110
M. Gallup Rec Yds O43.5 -120
Dj Moore Receptions O5.5 +120
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate Stafford. lol, we were spot on w obj td and Jefferson yards tho!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Holy cow I knew it was gonna be a pass game script for cincy but I didn’t see that coming from Burrow again!! Wow!! Mixon hit receiving yards easy tho!!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
SNF
MIN/GBP
MIN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 14th, O/U was still T-4th (as of friday).
Cousins has the T-5th worst ASR matchup.
A. Jones has the best ALY matchup.
- MIN - 1st week w.o DE (Jones II), LB (Vigil), CB (Dantzler), DT (Pierce). On OL, 2nd week w/o Cole,
- GBP - 2nd week w/o DT (Keke), LB (Summers).
DFS Notable injuries
No Thielen, No Cousins, Conklin is Q.
WEATHER - Extremely cold, but no wind issues.
Nobody is off the table.. I think the backs haver the superior matchups here, but I'll definitely be on some WR's here, as I think most people will avoid WR's/Passing than usual, and I think that's uncalled for... so I'll take the free leverage where I can.
Having said that, Cook should see some success, prior to covid, he was seeing an uptick in snaps, and reached 89% (without mattison), I still think 80% is attainable. I'm a bit nervous with Mannion, but its the showdown slate, and he/vikes need to be played.
Jefferson > Osborne/Conklin should be only pass catching options. I know its with cousins, but jefferson is averaging like 13~ targets 100+ rec yards, with like 170+ airyards... guys a savage.
I want more jones than dillon, but you need to tell yourself how do you think this game plays out... if playing from behind/1 possession lead, I may go all in on Jones... if 2+ possesions, its where I'll start to sway to dillon more in lineups. Play it how you want... but in the latter scenario its still like a 55/60-45/40 jones/dillon split... former is closer to 66/70-33/30.
Adams for PPR, MVS for deep shots.... lazard is the backburner for me.
Lewis/Deguara are in a split that I don't want any of, but they are cheap punts
5-3 on props... one of the losses/players unfortunately got hurt.
MVS Rec Yds O38.5 -115
MIN/GBP
MIN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 14th, O/U was still T-4th (as of friday).
Cousins has the T-5th worst ASR matchup.
A. Jones has the best ALY matchup.
- MIN - 1st week w.o DE (Jones II), LB (Vigil), CB (Dantzler), DT (Pierce). On OL, 2nd week w/o Cole,
- GBP - 2nd week w/o DT (Keke), LB (Summers).
DFS Notable injuries
No Thielen, No Cousins, Conklin is Q.
WEATHER - Extremely cold, but no wind issues.
Nobody is off the table.. I think the backs haver the superior matchups here, but I'll definitely be on some WR's here, as I think most people will avoid WR's/Passing than usual, and I think that's uncalled for... so I'll take the free leverage where I can.
Having said that, Cook should see some success, prior to covid, he was seeing an uptick in snaps, and reached 89% (without mattison), I still think 80% is attainable. I'm a bit nervous with Mannion, but its the showdown slate, and he/vikes need to be played.
Jefferson > Osborne/Conklin should be only pass catching options. I know its with cousins, but jefferson is averaging like 13~ targets 100+ rec yards, with like 170+ airyards... guys a savage.
I want more jones than dillon, but you need to tell yourself how do you think this game plays out... if playing from behind/1 possession lead, I may go all in on Jones... if 2+ possesions, its where I'll start to sway to dillon more in lineups. Play it how you want... but in the latter scenario its still like a 55/60-45/40 jones/dillon split... former is closer to 66/70-33/30.
Adams for PPR, MVS for deep shots.... lazard is the backburner for me.
Lewis/Deguara are in a split that I don't want any of, but they are cheap punts
5-3 on props... one of the losses/players unfortunately got hurt.
MVS Rec Yds O38.5 -115
So u thinkin Jefferson over MVS over and jones over ?
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Jefferson worries me, maybe his receptions. And if you think it'll be a smidge closer than a 12+ point game, I think jones for sure hits the over
Yeah Jefferson a lot so u only like jones for sure tonight ?
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
I played the MVS over.... I think jones/jefferson are good options
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
CLV/PIT
CLV DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 10th, o/u was 13th.
Baker has the 2nd worst ASR matchup.
Chubb has the 4th best ALY matchup. Najee has the 5th worst ALY matchup.
- CLV - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Lee), 2nd week w/o S (Johnson III), 3rd week w/o CB (Hill). DT (Jackson) is Q.
- PIT - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Maulet), LB (Schobert), 2nd week w/o LB (Bush), DT (Wormley)
DFS Notable injuries
Hunt is Q.
WEATHER - just cold? everything fine.
Cleveland has a 3 TE committee based off last week... as Njoku/Hooper, and Bryant, saw 54/57, 23% of snaps.... for DFS, if you need to punt, I'd just take the cheapest one and hope for landing the TD..... otherwise pass. Hooper was the one who seemed to be targeted most. Pittsburgh is top 8 in FP's at defending TE's.
Peoples-Jones is the man.... he's averaging roughly the same targets/game as landry, past handful of weeks, but has a really good aDOT.... Not only can he match his catches, but gets a leg up in yardage just by where its thrown to him, yes please.... too add, he went 1 catch for 5 yards last week, that may suppress his ownership some. He's also the snap leader at the WR position.
In his last 3 games played, Higgins has seen atleeast 66%~ of snaps, to as much as 90%~ of snaps.... I won't prioritize him, but I'm almost inclined to lean his way more than landry as he is most definitely cheaper, and will likely be lower owned.
As a whole at the WR position... just temper the expectations, as last week they played from behind most of the game, and if they aren't forced to throw it, they won't. I'd play 1 at most, unless you're playing out a script where Pitt plays with a lead (maybe the DEF+Najee).
Which brings me to Chubby. Even in a game they were behind, he finished with 21 total carries/targets that went for 184 yards. Those touches probably go up in a game with a lead/close script. He will be my captain in most.
Friermuth looks to be back, and clv is in the bottom half in points given up to TEs... ben likes to target them.... we would just like to know if he returns to a 75%~ snap role, and idk if we do.
I still think rayray was a good option over claypool last week, as he had 8 targets to claypool's 6, just couldn't do anything with them.... and over the last 4 weeks, he's averaging close to 6 targets/game to claypools 5/game. Having said that, the airyards has flipped... and so is my choice. Outside of Washington (who I don't want), claypool is the only person on the team with an aDOT over 10 past handful of weeks (no other WR is even at 7...) Diontae for ppr, claypool for deep shots.
First time since Week 12 Najee didn't play 95%+ of snaps.... what happened week 12 that happened week 16? they got blown out. Yet he still finished with 19 carries, and 7 targets, on 78% of snaps last week, totaling 110 yards, 16 FPs in PPR without a TD. If you can fit him in, I think you do.
Just saw on DFS.. Peoplesjones is not only 5K to landrys 8.4K, but he's also cheaper than higgins.. my goodness.
N. Chubb Rush Yds O88.5 -115
N. Harris Rush&Rec Yds O97.5 -115
D. Peoples-Jones Rec Yds O33.5 -115
C. Claypool Longest Rec. O19.5 -110
CLV DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 10th, o/u was 13th.
Baker has the 2nd worst ASR matchup.
Chubb has the 4th best ALY matchup. Najee has the 5th worst ALY matchup.
- CLV - On D, 1st week w/o LB (Lee), 2nd week w/o S (Johnson III), 3rd week w/o CB (Hill). DT (Jackson) is Q.
- PIT - On D, 1st week w/o CB (Maulet), LB (Schobert), 2nd week w/o LB (Bush), DT (Wormley)
DFS Notable injuries
Hunt is Q.
WEATHER - just cold? everything fine.
Cleveland has a 3 TE committee based off last week... as Njoku/Hooper, and Bryant, saw 54/57, 23% of snaps.... for DFS, if you need to punt, I'd just take the cheapest one and hope for landing the TD..... otherwise pass. Hooper was the one who seemed to be targeted most. Pittsburgh is top 8 in FP's at defending TE's.
Peoples-Jones is the man.... he's averaging roughly the same targets/game as landry, past handful of weeks, but has a really good aDOT.... Not only can he match his catches, but gets a leg up in yardage just by where its thrown to him, yes please.... too add, he went 1 catch for 5 yards last week, that may suppress his ownership some. He's also the snap leader at the WR position.
In his last 3 games played, Higgins has seen atleeast 66%~ of snaps, to as much as 90%~ of snaps.... I won't prioritize him, but I'm almost inclined to lean his way more than landry as he is most definitely cheaper, and will likely be lower owned.
As a whole at the WR position... just temper the expectations, as last week they played from behind most of the game, and if they aren't forced to throw it, they won't. I'd play 1 at most, unless you're playing out a script where Pitt plays with a lead (maybe the DEF+Najee).
Which brings me to Chubby. Even in a game they were behind, he finished with 21 total carries/targets that went for 184 yards. Those touches probably go up in a game with a lead/close script. He will be my captain in most.
Friermuth looks to be back, and clv is in the bottom half in points given up to TEs... ben likes to target them.... we would just like to know if he returns to a 75%~ snap role, and idk if we do.
I still think rayray was a good option over claypool last week, as he had 8 targets to claypool's 6, just couldn't do anything with them.... and over the last 4 weeks, he's averaging close to 6 targets/game to claypools 5/game. Having said that, the airyards has flipped... and so is my choice. Outside of Washington (who I don't want), claypool is the only person on the team with an aDOT over 10 past handful of weeks (no other WR is even at 7...) Diontae for ppr, claypool for deep shots.
First time since Week 12 Najee didn't play 95%+ of snaps.... what happened week 12 that happened week 16? they got blown out. Yet he still finished with 19 carries, and 7 targets, on 78% of snaps last week, totaling 110 yards, 16 FPs in PPR without a TD. If you can fit him in, I think you do.
Just saw on DFS.. Peoplesjones is not only 5K to landrys 8.4K, but he's also cheaper than higgins.. my goodness.
N. Chubb Rush Yds O88.5 -115
N. Harris Rush&Rec Yds O97.5 -115
D. Peoples-Jones Rec Yds O33.5 -115
C. Claypool Longest Rec. O19.5 -110
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Well I stunk up yesterday late games worse than I been all year, Fuckinh sucked. Let’s try and get some redemption here!!
Big Ben ov 1.5 td passes ev. How can ya not go here? Surely Ben gonna go out with a bang right? I just can’t believe he won’t throw 2+ tds tonight, be a real shame it he doesn’t!!!
Friermuth td +175., if Ben gonna throw 2-3 tds this guy should get one. Great price for best red zone target!!
Hooper over 2.5 catches. Maybe browns just let baker throw since it don’t matter? Why not? Always confused why they don’t look to their te’s more but hooper should be good for this.,
Hooper td +400.. gotta have a long shot. They throw to 3 different TE’s in red zone so who knows but I think 1 will catch a td tonight so pick guy you like!!
Big Ben ov 1.5 td passes ev. How can ya not go here? Surely Ben gonna go out with a bang right? I just can’t believe he won’t throw 2+ tds tonight, be a real shame it he doesn’t!!!
Friermuth td +175., if Ben gonna throw 2-3 tds this guy should get one. Great price for best red zone target!!
Hooper over 2.5 catches. Maybe browns just let baker throw since it don’t matter? Why not? Always confused why they don’t look to their te’s more but hooper should be good for this.,
Hooper td +400.. gotta have a long shot. They throw to 3 different TE’s in red zone so who knows but I think 1 will catch a td tonight so pick guy you like!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
While that would be sweet, I don’t mess w that, honestly think easier to hit those specials with him like over 100 receiving and td than try to get 1st td. Although I notice prob half the time when I play rb to score they score right out the gates, I might have to think bout playing some of those in future, just like fraction of the anytime td bet.,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You talking bout how it went from browns favs to Steelers favs? Pretty sure ppl were betting browns thinking cincy would lose to kc, then the min brown got eliminated from playoffs they all switched. I think ppl are crazy with this whole thing where they bet all these mediocre teams when they in “must win” spots, there a reasons a team in that spot in 1st place, cause they lose games they should win!!! Then they put way to much into “meaningless”, I got news for them, for most part players not trying any more or less hard in any game regardless circumstance!!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Moved from 3 to 1 in the last hour, seems more significant than the original move
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Caesars had some promotion up yesterday that allowed me to bet Pitt +3.5 so I took it considering the line had already moved and today i bought back on Clev +2.5 at +100 -- so i have no horse in today's race other than it be a FG or less game -- and my props
Nice. Good way to attack it, I think you have pretty decent shot at middle, woulda been nice to get +3 on browns but hell, it could easily fall 1 or 2 these days. Ben leads game winning drive to win by 1 seems kinda fitting!!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Well this is sweet. Being the greedy fuck I am and mad about taking a hit yesterday afternoon I didn’t just bet Ben over tds straight. Also did a 2 team parlay w him and Ja Morant over 1.5 treys; he went 2-2 in 1st qrtr so now it just Big Ben for the fat cash!! Lol. Hopefully I don’t regret not betting Ja prop straight, lol
