DIAMOND DAVE
New Member
Like the Eagles today NUT.Look forward to your final plays..
Week 14 Discussion
- Thread starter SportsNut
- Start date
Thanks guys . Playing catch up at the moment . Took some sleep meds last nite , been out cold and trying to shake of that groggy feeling ......
Spiderman- I agree and might be playing it ...GL
JML- Good point as well. GL
Thanks Yanks BOL today
Diamond Dave- Thanks and GL. In about 10-15 minutes ...:shake:
Spiderman- I agree and might be playing it ...GL
JML- Good point as well. GL
Thanks Yanks BOL today
Diamond Dave- Thanks and GL. In about 10-15 minutes ...:shake:
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Good luck Nut
Sunday Plays :
Level 3 :
Bengals +14
Bills ML -120
Panthers-2.5 -125 (Best Bet will add to)
Saints -2.5 -120
Level 2:
Eagles +7.5 -120
Ravens -5
Over 42-120 Bills
Lions 1st H +7 -115
Browns+14.5 -120
Level 1 :
Lions +11
Jags +7.5 -125
GB -6
Broncos -9 -115
Seahawks +7.5 -120
49ers +4.5
Cowboys +4
1st H Bengals +7.5 +100
1st H Browns +7.5 +100
1st H Eagles +3.5
Under 41 Giants / Eagles
Under 37 Browns/ Titans
Under 41-120 Jags / Bears
Over 41 -120 Colts
Only finished some of the 4 PM totals so will look deeper at those and still working on the 1 PM games as well. Might bump some plays up .....
ETC(Props and Quarters)
1st Q Browns +3
1st Q Lions +3-115
:cheers:GL
Level 3 :
Bengals +14
Bills ML -120
Panthers-2.5 -125 (Best Bet will add to)
Saints -2.5 -120
Level 2:
Eagles +7.5 -120
Ravens -5
Over 42-120 Bills
Lions 1st H +7 -115
Browns+14.5 -120
Level 1 :
Lions +11
Jags +7.5 -125
GB -6
Broncos -9 -115
Seahawks +7.5 -120
49ers +4.5
Cowboys +4
1st H Bengals +7.5 +100
1st H Browns +7.5 +100
1st H Eagles +3.5
Under 41 Giants / Eagles
Under 37 Browns/ Titans
Under 41-120 Jags / Bears
Over 41 -120 Colts
Only finished some of the 4 PM totals so will look deeper at those and still working on the 1 PM games as well. Might bump some plays up .....
ETC(Props and Quarters)
1st Q Browns +3
1st Q Lions +3-115
:cheers:GL
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Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Where'd your Bills play come from?
Ack. Against you there.
Ack. Against you there.
Thank You Manchester . To you as well .:shake:
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Yeah, I went the other way and am not crazy to be going against one of your higher rated plays.
Just think these two teams are basically equally. Miami executes a tad better and Buffalo more talent . Closer to a home game for Buffalo and the travel for Miami all the way to Toronto . Series has been all Buffalo lately going 7-3 past 10 so expecting the payback factor to come into play ..
Miami will improved last few weeks on ST the Bills have McKelvin if who you remember was lighting up the Browns on MNF . Whitner hopefully plays as well. The Phins ground game has slowly regressed past month as well with the Wildcat becoming less effective.
Lee Evans
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2 align=right height=16><TD class=yspscores align=left>Career vs MIA</TD><TD class=yspscores>9</TD><TD> </TD><TD class=yspscores>32</TD><TD class=yspscores>670</TD><TD class=yspscores>74.4</TD><TD class=yspscores>20.9</TD><TD class=yspscores>70</TD><TD class=yspscores>6.8</TD><TD class=yspscores>28</TD><TD class=yspscores>8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>TDS
9g 32 r 670 yds 8 TDs
Buffalo ground game improving lately ......
Just expect Buffalo to win ...:shake:
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
If they would have left the roof open I think the Bills would have either gotten my money or I would have laid off. But basically indoors takes the home field pretty much out of the picture for them.
Meanwhile, in Nashville, that Browns defense is doing exactly what you said they would, at least so far.
Meanwhile, in Nashville, that Browns defense is doing exactly what you said they would, at least so far.
B
buckeyeburritos
Guest
gl today SN
Thanks Buckeye ! BOL
The weather angle getting overplayed IMO. Miami wont fell any closer to home because the temp is 74 IMO. Just a long ass trip IMO and would think Buffalo gets some Canadian love . Miami has no stars really to cheer for and were 1-15 last year ....
Buffalo on paper is just better IMO and matchups better ...
The weather angle getting overplayed IMO. Miami wont fell any closer to home because the temp is 74 IMO. Just a long ass trip IMO and would think Buffalo gets some Canadian love . Miami has no stars really to cheer for and were 1-15 last year ....
Buffalo on paper is just better IMO and matchups better ...
Second Half Plays : (3-1-1)
Bengals +6 {Level1} Loss
Lions +7 -120 {Level2} Frerotte Doubtful PUSH
Saints-1 {Level1} WIN
Under 19.5 Bears {Level1} WIN
Over 23.5 GB {level1 } WIN
Thats all GL:cheers:
1-1
2-1
9-6
About 5 pending here in this post plus Teaser from Thursday:cheers:
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NYGiants25
NY Giants fan, anyone?
nice job so far SportsNut :cheers:
4 PM UPDATE: Really adds and changes if not noted then stands as what I posted earlier
Broncos -3 +110 1st Q {Level1}
Broncos -9 {Level2}
Over 48 -120 Denver {Level2}
Over 28.5 +100 Denver TT {Level1}
Seahawks +7.5 -115 {Level2}
Over 43 {Level1}
Seahwaks +4 1st H {Level1}
Bills -1/2 1stH {Level1}
Over 21 TT Buffalo {Levle1}
SF +5 {Level1}
Under 45.5 -120 {Level1}
Broncos -3 +110 1st Q {Level1}
Broncos -9 {Level2}
Over 48 -120 Denver {Level2}
Over 28.5 +100 Denver TT {Level1}
Seahawks +7.5 -115 {Level2}
Over 43 {Level1}
Seahwaks +4 1st H {Level1}
Bills -1/2 1stH {Level1}
Over 21 TT Buffalo {Levle1}
SF +5 {Level1}
Under 45.5 -120 {Level1}
Pending :
Level 3:
Bills ML -120
Panthers -2.5 -125 (Best Bet adding to }
Level 2:
Ravens -5
Over 42 -120 Buffalo
Broncos -9
Over 48-120 Denver
Seahwaks +7.5 -115
Over 48 STL
Level 1:
Rams +8 1st Half
Over 24 1st H Arizona
Over 43 Seattle
Seattle +4 1st Half
Bills -0.5 1st H
SF +5
Under 45.5 SF
ETC
always L1 unless noted)
1st Q Denver -3 +110
TT Over 28.5 +100 Denver
TT Over 21 Buffalo
GL
Level 3:
Bills ML -120
Panthers -2.5 -125 (Best Bet adding to }
Level 2:
Ravens -5
Over 42 -120 Buffalo
Broncos -9
Over 48-120 Denver
Seahwaks +7.5 -115
Over 48 STL
Level 1:
Rams +8 1st Half
Over 24 1st H Arizona
Over 43 Seattle
Seattle +4 1st Half
Bills -0.5 1st H
SF +5
Under 45.5 SF
ETC
always L1 unless noted)1st Q Denver -3 +110
TT Over 28.5 +100 Denver
TT Over 21 Buffalo
GL
Second Half :
SF & Seattle Parlay - Getting what I expected from both teams so far and dont see why they cant win SU. Only pissed I ddint get more involved in SF ATS was scared of NY off a loss and its biting me again !
Bills - ?? - Only had 4 possessions and twice started inside their 20 while Miami ENJOYED great Field position on their possessions....
Broncos- Deosnt see KC defense slowing them . Had hoped they started quick like ZONA but a nice value play here IMO....17 ply drives are unimpressive just like 1 play 65 yd TD are ....
Not sure about the 4:15s.......
:cheers:
SF & Seattle Parlay - Getting what I expected from both teams so far and dont see why they cant win SU. Only pissed I ddint get more involved in SF ATS was scared of NY off a loss and its biting me again !
Bills - ?? - Only had 4 possessions and twice started inside their 20 while Miami ENJOYED great Field position on their possessions....
Broncos- Deosnt see KC defense slowing them . Had hoped they started quick like ZONA but a nice value play here IMO....17 ply drives are unimpressive just like 1 play 65 yd TD are ....
Not sure about the 4:15s.......
:cheers:
M
Mokey
Guest
yea first td wins the game both offenses look bad
Just think even minus Barber Dallas is the better team...
Dal has two TOD near the Pitt 35 which the wind is helping the Steelers more IMO since the Boys are stuck going for it . Dallas had 2 Ints and a bogus fumble...
Pitt had the ball at the DAL 45 , 46 , 22 and thir own 46 yet manage 3 points. How much more help do they need ??
I like that the DAL mistakes are made more out of agression then Pitts d forcing them ....
Choice running better then Pitts guys:cheers:
Pending :
Level 3: 1-1
Bills ML -120 Loser
Panthers -2.5 -125
Panthers -2.5 -125 .....ur not seeing double...
1st H Under Balt 17.5 -120 Winner
Level 2: 2-4
Ravens -5 Win
Over 42 -120 Buffalo Loss
Broncos -9 Loss
Over 48-120 Denver Loss
Seahwaks +7.5 -115 Win
Over 48 STL Loss
Level 1: 5-3
Rams +8 1st Half Loss
Over 24 1st H Arizona Win
Over 43 Seattle Win
Seattle +4 1st Half Win
Bills -0.5 1st H Loss
SF +5 Win
Under 45.5 SF Win
Boys +4.5 -120 Loss
ETC
1st Q Denver -3 +110
TT Over 28.5 +100 Denver
TT Over 21 Buffalo
1st Q Under 7 -125 Was
GL
2nd H :
Broncos -6.5 {Level3} Winner
Dal +3 -120 {L2}Loser
Buf -3 =105 {L2}Loser
Zona -6 {L1} Winner
SF +3.5 {L1}Winner
Ov 21 Buffalo {L1}Loser
Parlay {L1}Loser damn 2 ptconversion !
Over 17 +100 Ravens {Level2} Winner
Skins +0.5 {Level1} Winner
Teaser Balt and Under {L1}Winner
Shit results ...
4 PM and after
L3 : 2-1
L2 : 3-6
L1: 9-9
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Euros and 6 Figure change of plans .....
1st Half Under 17.5 Baltimore -120 {Level3} :
Short reasoning . We all know how the Balt defense gets amped up before games and well Primetime game expect them to be real fired up here .
Wash avgs 2.8 pts per in the 1st Q and 5.2 pts in the 2nd Q so far . Thats 8pts per 1st Half. Ravens are 3.6 and 6.8 pts for 10pts .
So offensively they avg 18 pts in 1st H and with these defenses I expect it to be a tad tougher . The line is 17.5 so we basically get their avg as 18 is not exactly a normal number for a score to fall on .....
They allow 8.2 pts Wash and 9.8 pts Balt So again 18 pts ......
Home and away is crazier..
Wash avgs 0.6 and 8.6 pts Balt 2.4 and 7.4 pts vs Balt allowing 0 pts and 4.6 with 8.2 and 3.8 for Wash.....
1st Quarter UNDER 7 -125 {Level 1}
1st Half Under 17.5 Baltimore -120 {Level3} :
Short reasoning . We all know how the Balt defense gets amped up before games and well Primetime game expect them to be real fired up here .
Wash avgs 2.8 pts per in the 1st Q and 5.2 pts in the 2nd Q so far . Thats 8pts per 1st Half. Ravens are 3.6 and 6.8 pts for 10pts .
So offensively they avg 18 pts in 1st H and with these defenses I expect it to be a tad tougher . The line is 17.5 so we basically get their avg as 18 is not exactly a normal number for a score to fall on .....
They allow 8.2 pts Wash and 9.8 pts Balt So again 18 pts ......
Home and away is crazier..
Wash avgs 0.6 and 8.6 pts Balt 2.4 and 7.4 pts vs Balt allowing 0 pts and 4.6 with 8.2 and 3.8 for Wash.....
1st Quarter UNDER 7 -125 {Level 1}
Thanks True , GL to us !
12-3 UNDER(s) for this week ...this could get alot play as well
Like TB TT Under(17/17.5) and Car TT Over (21).....Panthers L7 wins vs TB scored 21++
Panthers Less then 20 pts just 3 x so far all away
@ Oak 17 , @ TB 3 , @ Minny 10
Home 31 , 27 , 30 , 34 ,24 ,20
TB away allowed 20,27 , 13,16 ,24,24
13 was Dallas with Johnson and 16 @ Denver and Broncos easily should have cracked 20++ ...
Believe it or not TB scored 20+ in all but 3 including the 2 they didnt allow 20 ...and 10 at home vs Minny:cheers:
Car 24-14..:shake:
Points of interest MNF :
-NFC South at HOME:
23-2
TB and Car 6-0
NO 6-1
ATL 5-1
- OL protection of TB vs Car Pass Rush :
Panthers have 13 sacks last 5 games and TB has allowed 9 last 2 games. Garcia has not been sacked in the past 2 meetings (has won 5 straight starts vs CAR although TB just 3-7 L10 meetings) though Juilus has 6 scacks in 6 career home games vs TB .....
- Carolina is 9-1 this year when rushing for 100+ yards:
"We have to take a good look at them,” Bucs coach Jon Gruden said. “Jonathan Stewart was in his second game, I think playing, or third game. They have the Wildcat formations; we are going to have to prepare for those. Jake Delhomme is hot again; he has thrown for a lot of yards the last couple of weeks. We are going to have to stop Carolina somehow, some way. Their run game is very, very good, creative. Two-back sets, one-back sets, they run it on third and eight, third and nine, for big plays. They are one of the few teams in the league that dials up a lot of runs on third down and medium, and long. They do a heck of a job, they do a heck of a job running the football.”
- Steve Smith heating up 273 yds last 2games
- TB always close games but especially on the road :
Lose by 4 @ NO , Lose by 3 @ Denver , Lose by 4 @ Brad Johnson led Dallas
Win in OT @ Chicago , Win in OT @ KC and Win @ Det
Each win was very flimsy IMO. Bears outplayed them but managed to choke away a big lead in the last half of the 4th Quarter . Huge 2nd H rally @ KC and again late 4th Quarter . Lions game they trailed 17-0 after 1 Quarter ......
- Postseason implications:
TB already beat Carolina so a win here means essentially a two game lead as TB owns the tiebreaker then....
- TB injuries :
DE Jovan Hoye appears doubtful or G/T decision and other starting DE Gaines Adams is banged up(questionable at one point) but should play. Also LE / DT Kevin Carter is now questionable with an illness so his availability is in question now .
Jermaine Phillips had missed some time but has returned and Derrick Brooks is probably healthier now despite not missing much game action...
WR Joey Galloway has never reclaimed a role since his injury usually seeing 5-10 SNAPS a game with no catches past 4 games . Hillard and Clayton also appear on the injury report but some okay enough to play. Still WR depth a question IMO.
TE ALex Smith returned last game in limited work and should see more time here but still doesnt sound like a 100% participant or full strength.
Earnest Graham's absence has put the pressure on Cadillac Williams to be productive and he has made some progress since his return.
-Panthers injuries :
LB N'ail Diggs limited at practice (leg cramps should be okay unless of course its something persistent he is dealing with but hard to know that)
LB Adam Seward out for weeks(think week 7) laready will NOT return here
RB Jonathan Stewart listed as questionable but should play
-Panthers Kick return game :
Mark Jones won ST of the week and had returns of 42 , 51 and 45 setting up Carolina TDs vs GB ... FIELD POSITION ALWAYS HUGE
-Panthers Defense:
Clearly struggling for weeks now , has alot teams to convert a ton of 3rd downs of late , which leads to longer drives and IMO longer drives more often then not end in points allowed. Sounds simplistic but all the talk about the struggling defense and thats the basis of it IMO . Failure to stop temas on 3rd downs causing negative momentum for the defense .....At times its the pass defense (Nickel back clearly struggling of late) and the run defense has allowed at least 135 yds past 4 games...so its a pick your poison but to me boils down to success rate on 3rd down .
Any thoughts here from the forum on specific issues on DEFENSE ?? See its really the past 2-3 games where the defense has struggled and @ ATL and @ GB are not easy tasks so part of me says dont weight this heavily ....
vs DET 6-16 3rd down and 2-3 4th down
316 yds allowed
3 long ass drives 12 (80yds),13 (70yds) and 15(65yds) plays resulting in 2 TDs and a FG .....two other 7 plays drive ammasing 34 and 37 yds reulting in FGs...
4 turnovers and 3 punts only two 3 and outs ...
@ Atl 6-13 on 3rd downs and 2-2 on 4th downs
392 yds allowed
Started poor on defense 8plays 70yds FG , 7plays 90 yds TD , and 10plays 34 yds TD(field position obviously) was ATL initial 3 drives.
Then momentum shifted when they got a fumble after ATL started moving it again and followed ith with 3 straight 3 and outs .
Just as Car made it a game 17-13 after trailing 17-0 (17-3 at H) the ATL offense woke up again. 12 plays 80 yds TD but answered by a Car TD(so 24-20 game again) , then ATL 7play 74 yd TD , which they forced a ount after backing up CAR and Douglas punt return for a TD , Car scores and onsides which short field Car scores again running out the clock essentially ....
@ GB tale of two halves IMO
8-16 on 3rd down 1-1 on 4th down
438yds
1st H only 10 play 51 yd FG and 12play 66yd TD
Down 21-10 open the 2nd H throwing which makes sense losing the game
5plays 32yd FG (start at own 42 though)
8plays 95 yd TD
9plays 76yd TD
16play 79yd FG
Really CAR did what it had biut didnt play well...
42 , 55 , 17 were the length of the 1st H TD drives
36 and 55 the 2nd H drives for TDS
Took 21 plays to score 5 TDs......
My opinion on this game :
Neither team has looked good recently . Not impressed with any of the past 5 Carolina games . I had them vs Zona and they wokeup after halftime which seems like a trait of this team and outplayed ARI in the 2 nd Half. Trailed 17-3 at one point in the 2nd H . Zona did get a cheap TD off a turnover but CAR did as well . They had a faked FG botched near the 20 yd line , went for 2 PT C and failed and INT inside the CAR 20 late , plus the sacks and penalties that were costly
Then @ Oak was sad with how the offense played a week after OAK couldnt stop ATL . Then the 3 above already mentioned . Only thing about DET is you wonder how teams get up for opposing them especially at home.
At least Zona and Det at home then away @ Oak , @ ATL and @ GB ...so decent opposition . GB and Zona two QBs who can throw it real well and score quick . ATL solid all around team and terrible Oak and Det....
TB's L5 games samething IMO....
@ Dallas lose 13-9 with Brad Johnson enuff said ...122 yds passing for Dallas..
@ KC perfect storm to win that game vs a bad team but KC offense has improved . They even missed the winning FG in OT and got another chance due to penalty and sadly the penalty ws on them before the snap false start ! Trailed 24-3 but kick return for a TD and late FG put up 10 pts before half in the final 2 minutes...stayed that score till the 4th when TB scored but missed teh 2 pt c . Still up 5 KC drove the ball conservative ball aka Edwards playing to lose they kick a short 28 yd FG up 8 pts, then TB drives and fumbles inside the KC 5 yd line = game over right ? Somehow KC picked up a 1st down and was called for offensive PI and gave it back to TB who score and get the conversion !!!! Win it OT.....KC had a banged up defense and TB took advantage eventually
vs Minny WIN 19-13 all on the defense here IMO. Creating key turnovers and being ruthless once it was tied and keeping Minny to FGs early at key times.
1stH - Punt , 8plays 36 Fg , 8plays 76 yds TD , 12 plays 51 yds FG
Recall AP really running well
2nd H -TOD at midfield as Vikes gamble and lose uhm momentum swing ? After it was tied at 13-13 . Next touch they get to the TB 40 barely inside and forced to punt , now early 4th Q and Bucs take 9 minutes off the clock but only get 3 points and on the kickoff Vikes fumble and set up TB for another short FG. Vikes kept TB from blwoing them out by also tightening up on defense .
Now its 19-13 and less the 4 minutes remain as its Minnys 1st possession since punting early 4th Q tied at 13-13 .....they wind up going for it backed up on 4th down and TOD. They dont get TB again setup and misses the shirt FG after not moving the ball . Minny again gets the ball and a fumble on a scak ends it .....
ALL DEFENSE here IMO after a poor start by the defense...Vikes flirted in TB territory often and couldnt put TB away early IMO
@ Det trailed 17-0 after 1 Q but lucky it was DET and win 38-20 but only 255 yds of offense . 5 straight TDs !
7plays 50yds TD , 9plays 69yds TD then unravel INT 1 play 24 yd TD , Punt return for TD and pick 6 65 yds for a TD by TB........really in less then 20 minutes of game action 17-0 became trailing 35-17.....
vs NO win on last sec FG as the Sainst poor on the road game TB fits ...TB again huge 3rd Q win it 14-0 but trailed 10-6 to start and watched NO score th 1st 10 points of the 4th Quarter....
Personally as much as CAR struggled I think TB played much worse . They probably should have lost to NO , Minn and KC need Det to be that terrible to win and the lost @ Dallas shows the struggles of the offense on the road .....
TB offense is starting slow and not doing much in the 4th Q last few games while Car also starts slow it has played well in the 2nd and 4th quarters...
Last 3 Home and Away for each
Car 70% in the red zone and TB only 28%....
TB only 82 yds rushing last 3 away (3.3 yds per carry)
getting sacked nearly 3x times per in those
I have some concerns with CAR recent play but made this line 4 to 4.5 ....so thats the reason for the big play as it came out -3...
TB as I said is playing worse then CAR IMO and somehow no one notices this team is 10 pts away in 3 losses from being undefeated with late chances to win all those games. Hence I think they are overdue to lose a game by more then 3 or 4 points and we know SU winners on MNF see the spread not come into play .....So would laying -3.5 here even -4 if I had to as I expect this to be the widest margin loss of the season for TB.
Without a strong running game not sure Garcia and Co can do what others have to Carolina at times .
Looking at points allowed by TB recently and CAR scoring at home plus series history where every Car win has seen them score at least 21 points the total preference is mostly on CAR TT Over then anything else .......small lean to TB TT under and game over .....some fairly cool weather mid 30s I think should also be a plus for CAR ....
KEY: TB allows 121 yds rushing oer away and 4.2 YPC
:cheers:
-NFC South at HOME:
23-2
TB and Car 6-0
NO 6-1
ATL 5-1
- OL protection of TB vs Car Pass Rush :
Panthers have 13 sacks last 5 games and TB has allowed 9 last 2 games. Garcia has not been sacked in the past 2 meetings (has won 5 straight starts vs CAR although TB just 3-7 L10 meetings) though Juilus has 6 scacks in 6 career home games vs TB .....
- Carolina is 9-1 this year when rushing for 100+ yards:
"We have to take a good look at them,” Bucs coach Jon Gruden said. “Jonathan Stewart was in his second game, I think playing, or third game. They have the Wildcat formations; we are going to have to prepare for those. Jake Delhomme is hot again; he has thrown for a lot of yards the last couple of weeks. We are going to have to stop Carolina somehow, some way. Their run game is very, very good, creative. Two-back sets, one-back sets, they run it on third and eight, third and nine, for big plays. They are one of the few teams in the league that dials up a lot of runs on third down and medium, and long. They do a heck of a job, they do a heck of a job running the football.”
- Steve Smith heating up 273 yds last 2games
- TB always close games but especially on the road :
Lose by 4 @ NO , Lose by 3 @ Denver , Lose by 4 @ Brad Johnson led Dallas
Win in OT @ Chicago , Win in OT @ KC and Win @ Det
Each win was very flimsy IMO. Bears outplayed them but managed to choke away a big lead in the last half of the 4th Quarter . Huge 2nd H rally @ KC and again late 4th Quarter . Lions game they trailed 17-0 after 1 Quarter ......
- Postseason implications:
TB already beat Carolina so a win here means essentially a two game lead as TB owns the tiebreaker then....
- TB injuries :
DE Jovan Hoye appears doubtful or G/T decision and other starting DE Gaines Adams is banged up(questionable at one point) but should play. Also LE / DT Kevin Carter is now questionable with an illness so his availability is in question now .
Jermaine Phillips had missed some time but has returned and Derrick Brooks is probably healthier now despite not missing much game action...
WR Joey Galloway has never reclaimed a role since his injury usually seeing 5-10 SNAPS a game with no catches past 4 games . Hillard and Clayton also appear on the injury report but some okay enough to play. Still WR depth a question IMO.
TE ALex Smith returned last game in limited work and should see more time here but still doesnt sound like a 100% participant or full strength.
Earnest Graham's absence has put the pressure on Cadillac Williams to be productive and he has made some progress since his return.
-Panthers injuries :
LB N'ail Diggs limited at practice (leg cramps should be okay unless of course its something persistent he is dealing with but hard to know that)
LB Adam Seward out for weeks(think week 7) laready will NOT return here
RB Jonathan Stewart listed as questionable but should play
-Panthers Kick return game :
Mark Jones won ST of the week and had returns of 42 , 51 and 45 setting up Carolina TDs vs GB ... FIELD POSITION ALWAYS HUGE
-Panthers Defense:
Clearly struggling for weeks now , has alot teams to convert a ton of 3rd downs of late , which leads to longer drives and IMO longer drives more often then not end in points allowed. Sounds simplistic but all the talk about the struggling defense and thats the basis of it IMO . Failure to stop temas on 3rd downs causing negative momentum for the defense .....At times its the pass defense (Nickel back clearly struggling of late) and the run defense has allowed at least 135 yds past 4 games...so its a pick your poison but to me boils down to success rate on 3rd down .
Any thoughts here from the forum on specific issues on DEFENSE ?? See its really the past 2-3 games where the defense has struggled and @ ATL and @ GB are not easy tasks so part of me says dont weight this heavily ....
vs DET 6-16 3rd down and 2-3 4th down
316 yds allowed
3 long ass drives 12 (80yds),13 (70yds) and 15(65yds) plays resulting in 2 TDs and a FG .....two other 7 plays drive ammasing 34 and 37 yds reulting in FGs...
4 turnovers and 3 punts only two 3 and outs ...
@ Atl 6-13 on 3rd downs and 2-2 on 4th downs
392 yds allowed
Started poor on defense 8plays 70yds FG , 7plays 90 yds TD , and 10plays 34 yds TD(field position obviously) was ATL initial 3 drives.
Then momentum shifted when they got a fumble after ATL started moving it again and followed ith with 3 straight 3 and outs .
Just as Car made it a game 17-13 after trailing 17-0 (17-3 at H) the ATL offense woke up again. 12 plays 80 yds TD but answered by a Car TD(so 24-20 game again) , then ATL 7play 74 yd TD , which they forced a ount after backing up CAR and Douglas punt return for a TD , Car scores and onsides which short field Car scores again running out the clock essentially ....
@ GB tale of two halves IMO
8-16 on 3rd down 1-1 on 4th down
438yds
1st H only 10 play 51 yd FG and 12play 66yd TD
Down 21-10 open the 2nd H throwing which makes sense losing the game
5plays 32yd FG (start at own 42 though)
8plays 95 yd TD
9plays 76yd TD
16play 79yd FG
Really CAR did what it had biut didnt play well...
42 , 55 , 17 were the length of the 1st H TD drives
36 and 55 the 2nd H drives for TDS
Took 21 plays to score 5 TDs......
My opinion on this game :
Neither team has looked good recently . Not impressed with any of the past 5 Carolina games . I had them vs Zona and they wokeup after halftime which seems like a trait of this team and outplayed ARI in the 2 nd Half. Trailed 17-3 at one point in the 2nd H . Zona did get a cheap TD off a turnover but CAR did as well . They had a faked FG botched near the 20 yd line , went for 2 PT C and failed and INT inside the CAR 20 late , plus the sacks and penalties that were costly
Then @ Oak was sad with how the offense played a week after OAK couldnt stop ATL . Then the 3 above already mentioned . Only thing about DET is you wonder how teams get up for opposing them especially at home.
At least Zona and Det at home then away @ Oak , @ ATL and @ GB ...so decent opposition . GB and Zona two QBs who can throw it real well and score quick . ATL solid all around team and terrible Oak and Det....
TB's L5 games samething IMO....
@ Dallas lose 13-9 with Brad Johnson enuff said ...122 yds passing for Dallas..
@ KC perfect storm to win that game vs a bad team but KC offense has improved . They even missed the winning FG in OT and got another chance due to penalty and sadly the penalty ws on them before the snap false start ! Trailed 24-3 but kick return for a TD and late FG put up 10 pts before half in the final 2 minutes...stayed that score till the 4th when TB scored but missed teh 2 pt c . Still up 5 KC drove the ball conservative ball aka Edwards playing to lose they kick a short 28 yd FG up 8 pts, then TB drives and fumbles inside the KC 5 yd line = game over right ? Somehow KC picked up a 1st down and was called for offensive PI and gave it back to TB who score and get the conversion !!!! Win it OT.....KC had a banged up defense and TB took advantage eventually
vs Minny WIN 19-13 all on the defense here IMO. Creating key turnovers and being ruthless once it was tied and keeping Minny to FGs early at key times.
1stH - Punt , 8plays 36 Fg , 8plays 76 yds TD , 12 plays 51 yds FG
Recall AP really running well
2nd H -TOD at midfield as Vikes gamble and lose uhm momentum swing ? After it was tied at 13-13 . Next touch they get to the TB 40 barely inside and forced to punt , now early 4th Q and Bucs take 9 minutes off the clock but only get 3 points and on the kickoff Vikes fumble and set up TB for another short FG. Vikes kept TB from blwoing them out by also tightening up on defense .
Now its 19-13 and less the 4 minutes remain as its Minnys 1st possession since punting early 4th Q tied at 13-13 .....they wind up going for it backed up on 4th down and TOD. They dont get TB again setup and misses the shirt FG after not moving the ball . Minny again gets the ball and a fumble on a scak ends it .....
ALL DEFENSE here IMO after a poor start by the defense...Vikes flirted in TB territory often and couldnt put TB away early IMO
@ Det trailed 17-0 after 1 Q but lucky it was DET and win 38-20 but only 255 yds of offense . 5 straight TDs !
7plays 50yds TD , 9plays 69yds TD then unravel INT 1 play 24 yd TD , Punt return for TD and pick 6 65 yds for a TD by TB........really in less then 20 minutes of game action 17-0 became trailing 35-17.....
vs NO win on last sec FG as the Sainst poor on the road game TB fits ...TB again huge 3rd Q win it 14-0 but trailed 10-6 to start and watched NO score th 1st 10 points of the 4th Quarter....
Personally as much as CAR struggled I think TB played much worse . They probably should have lost to NO , Minn and KC need Det to be that terrible to win and the lost @ Dallas shows the struggles of the offense on the road .....
TB offense is starting slow and not doing much in the 4th Q last few games while Car also starts slow it has played well in the 2nd and 4th quarters...
Last 3 Home and Away for each
Car 70% in the red zone and TB only 28%....
TB only 82 yds rushing last 3 away (3.3 yds per carry)
getting sacked nearly 3x times per in those
I have some concerns with CAR recent play but made this line 4 to 4.5 ....so thats the reason for the big play as it came out -3...
TB as I said is playing worse then CAR IMO and somehow no one notices this team is 10 pts away in 3 losses from being undefeated with late chances to win all those games. Hence I think they are overdue to lose a game by more then 3 or 4 points and we know SU winners on MNF see the spread not come into play .....So would laying -3.5 here even -4 if I had to as I expect this to be the widest margin loss of the season for TB.
Without a strong running game not sure Garcia and Co can do what others have to Carolina at times .
Looking at points allowed by TB recently and CAR scoring at home plus series history where every Car win has seen them score at least 21 points the total preference is mostly on CAR TT Over then anything else .......small lean to TB TT under and game over .....some fairly cool weather mid 30s I think should also be a plus for CAR ....
KEY: TB allows 121 yds rushing oer away and 4.2 YPC
:cheers:
