-week 13 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
ytd: +3.40

last week was a good week, cashing on some 2h lines psu, ill, kentucky. made my plays 12-8, but the ml dogs bit me back a little. would have been a helluva week if that utah st ml stuck, which besides maryland was the only one that really had a chance.

BIG PLAY - Oklahoma -6 - 5 units

leans:

Kent State
Ball State
GT
Miami OH
BG
SJSU
EMU
Michigan
MD
Ohio
TCU
NM State
BYU
USF

obviously still working through the card...gotta cut down some of these leans and look at some other games...actually think it's going to be a light card. anxious to discuss some of these to narrow them down. will be around most of the day tomorrow

will likely add to oklahoma if it drops...think an ass beating is in order, and i'm not one of those who think tech is overrated either...just think oklahoma will control this game from beginning to end

:cheers:
 
Looks like your leans are mostly mid major type games. I really need to start digging into these myself Joe but I like GT Thursday night and lean on alot of these. Gonna try to stay away from some of these MAC games....Kent is interesting. I thought Temple's good defense would equal a win. NIU is alot like Temple.

....Oklahoma....hmmm. Aren't you worried about the OU pass defense? OU has really played a bunch of cupcakes since that Texas loss. Just think TT has proven alot more. Not sure about this game.

---Interestingly, OU is pretty good in pass effeciency defense. Who would of thunk. I think this is more valuable than pass yards given up because it includes attempts, completion %, td's, int's. Yet I can't get over the KSU output. They are still giving up mass yards and rate bottom 3rd in football in pass yardage.

----Phil Steele's pass effeciency ratings are showing OU is 6th and the NCAA football statistics are showing OU 28th. Anybody know what the deal is with that?
 
----Phil Steele's pass effeciency ratings are showing OU is 6th and the NCAA football statistics are showing OU 28th. Anybody know what the deal is with that?

Steele apparently makes his ratings based on competition level as well.
 
vegaskyle said:
gl joe

iliked tcu as well but they priced me out.
Click to expand...

yeah kyle, i was hoping for around two tds...wishful thinking i guess. i have probably been priced out of it too, although i think it's pretty likely we see a 21 point deficit by the end of the 1Q
 
O-State said:
Looks like your leans are mostly mid major type games. I really need to start digging into these myself Joe but I like GT Thursday night and lean on alot of these. Gonna try to stay away from some of these MAC games....Kent is interesting. I thought Temple's good defense would equal a win. NIU is alot like Temple.

....Oklahoma....hmmm. Aren't you worried about the OU pass defense? OU has really played a bunch of cupcakes since that Texas loss. Just think TT has proven alot more. Not sure about this game.

---Interestingly, OU is pretty good in pass effeciency defense. Who would of thunk. I think this is more valuable than pass yards given up because it includes attempts, completion %, td's, int's. Yet I can't get over the KSU output. They are still giving up mass yards and rate bottom 3rd in football in pass yardage.

----Phil Steele's pass effeciency ratings are showing OU is 6th and the NCAA football statistics are showing OU 28th. Anybody know what the deal is with that?
Click to expand...

this texas tech offensive line is unbelievable. harrel rarely gets hit or even pressured. even if they are scoring points early, oklahoma will be able to hit him and put him on the ground, which he does not like at all (my only knock on him is that he's kind of a pussy). i think it's tough to go into norman with this talented physical defense and not get hit. i think this takes a major toll on him and affects his play in the 2h. they have been able to run the football on every other opponent and i think that ends here. as an all around football team, i put oklahoma more than 3 points better than texas tech, and in a game like this in norman, i put more than 3 points for hfa. tough to like the other side in norman when oklahoma is very likely to get to 45. i think this is a blowout.

much more on this game throughout the week
 
joe - I just reread what you wrote in regards to Bowling Green in my Weekly thread. I have to say, I STRONGLY disagree with your assessment of their defense. Their run defense is HORRIBLE (175 yds/game). If Starks doesn't run for 150+, I'll be surprised. Buffalo will probably run for 180+ as a team.

This is the same defense that lost at home to a 2-8 EMU squad (21-24)...lost at home to 2-8 Miami OH squad (20-27)...and struggled to hold off Kent St 45-30. None of these teams have an offense that even comes close to Buffalo's, as the Bulls clearly have the best QB (Willy) and best Running Back (Starks) of all these teams. Willy hasn't thrown an INT since Oct. 11th, and it was as a result of a pass that went right thru the hands of Roosevelt and into the WMU defender's. Willy has 18 TDs and only 4 INTs this year...that's AWESOME.

Buffalo has faced much better passing teams this year, which have inflated their defensive passing stats (UTEP, Missouri, CMU, WMU & Akron). Their 6-4 overall, and have lost to the four best teams on their schedule (Missouri, Pitt, CMU & WMU). They lost to CMU by 2 (at CMU), and WMU by 6. Bowling Green isn't in the class of either of those teams.

If this line were 2 or less, I might hesitate...but laying OVER a FG with a squad that has only beat a team with a winning record ONCE the entire season??? No thanks. That lone win was back in Week 1, when PITT lost the turnover battle 4-1, and played like crap the entire game).

If anything, I think Buffalo's defeat at the hands of the Falcons last season is more motivation for the Bulls than it is Bowling Green. I'll take my chances with Buffalo +3.5, which I feel is not only the better team, but on a mission to atone for choking last year.

:shake:
 
i can completely see your points on buffalo aztec, and i don't think i ever said that bowling green's defense is good...if i implied that i surely didn't mean to. that was my main argument of why i laid the points in the pitt game...thinking pitt would run all over them, which they did but it still didn't work out for them. since the pitt game misread, i've had a good read on them, going 6-1 on their games (a couple had a lot to do with nropp, regardless, i'm surprised to see i bet on 8 of their games this year haha). i think it's easily explainable why they lost some of the game they did, as i bet againt them minny, miami, emu but i won't get too much into those reasons because they're not that relevant to this game. i realize how you can have a concern for their rush defense, but for whatever reason they were able to EITHER beat or keep teams from scoring a whole lot whose primary objective is to run (ie pitt, boise, niu, kent).

one thing i disagree with you on is that utep and akron are better passing offenses than bowling green. not sure what the numbers say, but i don't care too much because i am confident that bg has a better qb and better weapons than those two dogshit teams, who by the way, moved the ball through the air quite a bit vs buffalo. bg has underperformed this season, and now have their backs up against the wall to make a bowl game and to gain a share of first place in the mac east. motivation is either even or in favor of bg here. just can't see many reasons why bg doesn't get to the mid-30s here. maybe buffalo does too, but i'm taking my chances that a team going on the road again off that multiple ot win that couldn't get to the 20s last year with the same personnel at home -- does not get to into the 30s.

we'll see...should be a another hard fought, good mac game
 
and also note that bg's pass defense will put a lot of pressure on willy and is the best secondary willy has faced in a while. i wouldn't necessarily be banking on willy continuing to not make any mistakes based on his performance this year. i agree that he is a helluva qb, but the pressure and secondary combination he'll face in this game hasn't been this level the last few games...this is probably what i meant if i had said in your thread that bg's defense has been looking better or whatever
 
adding:

Kent +3/ML +130

***BIG PLAY - GT -3.5 (+100)***

Miami OH +3/ML +145

BGSU -3.5

SJSU ML +120

will likely add all of saturday's plays tomorrow...

decided to lay off of ball state.
 
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JPicks said:
BYU is probably solid, but I'll be rooting against you. :cheers:

BOL Joe.
Click to expand...

i'd really like to see utah win as well, as i think if they get through this conference plus the out of conference games undefeated they definitely deserve to bust the bcs. too close of games in this series to pass up a td though...will definitely be a play
 
vegaskyle said:
so awesome to see you on GT as a big play.

gl joe .....

any chance of a writeup ?
Click to expand...

sure, kyle...i'll get a full write-up down later this afternoon. don't see how miami scores a lot of points, and love the coaching mismatch (as always with pj) with what i feel is a team that is about a fg better only giving 3.5 at home. a game like this comes down to the little things, and gt is set up to have advantages in most of the details here imo. saw nropp on the other side which made me nervous, but the guy is due for a loss at somepoint haha. also, there's the famous unranked opponent at home favored vs ranked opponent trend in our favor, which i believe has done at least okay this year, especially during the week. i made this line about 5.5-6, but fully anticipated it to come out where it did. more on this game later

:shake:
 
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saturday...

Maryland +1 - i have finally come around to this maryland team, betting them for the first time last week, and i love em. in a down acc, maryland is the only team that has four wins over ranked opponents. they control their own destiny and i think win the acc. turner made play after play in that unc game; guy is a winner. not the best numbers guy, but very solid numbers at home. a lot of how i measure qbs come under pressure situations, and that last drive vs unc was great. if they can get the running game going even a little with meggett and scott, i think they're offense will be balanced enough to win a close one. noles probably more talented, but less consistent while imo md has been steadily improving. sure, they get players back this week, but that doesn't make ponder make any better decisions. md defense is solid and i expect a lot of pressure on ponder to force him into some untimely turnovers on the road.

Ohio +3/ML +120 - akron has finally started to regress back towards what i thought they were, and their hearts are broken after coming back only to come up short in multiple ots in the last game at their historic stadium for sole possession of the mac east lead, which was one of the most important games in recent memory for akron. i'm confident ou is simply the better team here even though what we've seen so far this year is too the contrary. akron has done more with less all year, and there is no better time for this to catch up to them than in this spot on the road after that horrible loss

Nevada +6/ML +200 - prob throwing away more money fading this boise state team, but i just don't believe in them. nevada should be able to run the ball and stop the run long enough to keep this close. boise usually shuts down the run pretty well, but this is a pretty explosive run game in an unconventional style in a big game for nevada at home trying to spoil a season. boise usually dominates t.o.p. and i just don't see that here. nevada isn't the type of team that's particularly easy to blow out with the style boise has, and they should be able to contain this offense a lot better than some of the defenses boise has seen.

BYU +7 - too many points in a rivalry that something like 10 of 11 (i think) have been under this margin. if they play this before the byu/tcu game this line is 3 tops

Arizona -2.5 - had to bite under 3 here. better team against what is imo an overrated team and coach at home in a big game like this. oreg state on the road at a near pkem just doesn't make sense to me. thanks to kyle for even noticing this game...missed it at first glance.

USF -3 - perhaps my last time to fade uconn. usf has been overrated the last few weeks, but they come to play at home (usually haha). margin of victory at home over the last couple of years is astounding, and they have to bounce back from the blowout loss vs rutgers last week. uconn is the team to do it against. lorenzen should be good for a handful of bad plays, and usf should do a decent job of containing the run. their offense thrives on big plays and that's what hurts uconn's solid defense. i actually don't even see uconn competing here. surprised to see such a short line to be honest

due to the board, i'm taking a closer look at ole miss, miss state, and wake

tcu, michigan, emu, nm state i am no longer considering.

really hoping the touts are all over tech so i can pound oklahoma some more.
 
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