Week 13 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Results:
Akron +500
Eastern Michigan +110
Western Kentucky +101
UNLV +125
Texas +130
East Carolina +165
Georgia Southern +200
UMASS +152
Duke +220
Purdue +195
Kansas St +775
Tulane +290
UL La +126
Coastal Carolina +220

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/?date=20171118

If you use scores and odds for grading link below.
http://www.scoresandodds.com/yesterday.html

14 this week with again some moving from fav to dog and dog to fav. I hope everyone cashed some tickets and made their bookie pay this week. As a wise poster used to say..... make your bookie scared to see you when you come to collect. He loved the
:moose:

On to Week 13

Good Luck
 
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Best performers:

Central Michigan +130, +292, +155, +100
FIU +100, +368, +506, +203
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130
UAB +263, +166, +371, +192

Teams with 3:

Arizona St +506, +711, +267
Boston College +639, +207, +199
Cal +410, +237, +639
East Carolina +176, +165, +170
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226
Maryland +664, +416, +203
North Texas +236, +100, +105
Rutgers +100, +237, +176
ULL +184, +188, +130
UNLV +161, +876,+105
Utah St +100, +148, +144

odds are taken from scoresandodds
 
thanks guys, had the Texas and U Mass just not posted otherwise no dog winners for me
had some close ones like Cal, Rice, Navy and Utah but same story with late mistakes or fade
managed to make small profit by taking points on the three Pac12 and Boise games and parlayed em so saved the day there
best to all this week, will hopefully contribute more this week
 
Had s few small winners, but it is the Rice and Pitt losses that are on my mind. Could have been a big day. Oh well, on to the next one...
 
Lean aTm +11 and ML and Wash St +11 and ML at first glance
Surprised So Miss as dog at Marshall
 
Must be , 5 dimes took it off the board after I loaded on Miami +5. Should be getting the “Sorry” email soon but know I think Miami +5 and likely ML +150 would be my contribution this week lol
 
CHSGTMD said:
Must be , 5 dimes took it off the board after I loaded on Miami +5. Should be getting the “Sorry” email soon but know I think Miami +5 and likely ML +150 would be my contribution this week lol
Click to expand...

Lmao does that happen often to you?
 
1st run through, just looking at dogs

Any MAC game (sarcasm)

Navy
UVA
Cal
UCONN
Ind
UK
So Miss
Fresno
AU (won’t play, just putting it out there)
Wash St

There are a few other small dogs that could have bite. Have to see if there is any value later in the week.
 
Some dogs that peaked my interest 1st trip thru....

Bowling Green
Ole Miss
Navy
UConn
Ky
UVA
USCjr <===I am very interested in this one.
Texas Tech 1st Half
West Virginia 1st Half
Idaho if Linehan plays...they were anemic last week without him.
Minny 1st half?? Possible letdown from Whisky 1st Half??
Texas A&M 1st Half

:eatingchinese:
 
You guys are the best about these so give me any confidence in or non-confidence in the following...

Texas St +1500 (will do this for the min out of principle)
South Florida +340
Texas Tech +315
Cal +240
Indiana +120
Kentucky +315
UNLV +125
Hawaii +132


Thanks!
 
I don't get why USF is dogged so heavily. One loss and complacency vs Tulsa and now they're nothing all of a sudden?
 
ksimpsc said:
It is the perception and steam on ucf but yes this would be a spot a team should perform like temple did not last week
Click to expand...
ksimp this is not related to the above post but just wanted to get your attention and thoughts on the Clemson game. When I saw the line, I jumped because I know this is going to a huugggeeee game for the Gamecocks at home...you all have not won in how long?? 4 years?? I also am finding it very odd that Clemson is NOT popping up on my queries which I run that give high prob win %'s....in other words, your Gamecocks seem like the live doggie for the week, no?

:flippingpancakes:
 
Betting on the last SC home game vs Deshaun Watson Clemson is one of my least favorite all-time bets but that's unrelated. Clemson covered like in the first quarter
 
JROCK1966 said:
ksimp this is not related to the above post but just wanted to get your attention and thoughts on the Clemson game. When I saw the line, I jumped because I know this is going to a huugggeeee game for the Gamecocks at home...you all have not won in how long?? 4 years?? I also am finding it very odd that Clemson is NOT popping up on my queries which I run that give high prob win %'s....in other words, your Gamecocks seem like the live doggie for the week, no?

:flippingpancakes:
Click to expand...

VirginiaCavs said:
Betting on the last SC home game vs Deshaun Watson Clemson is one of my least favorite all-time bets but that's unrelated. Clemson covered like in the first quarter
Click to expand...
2015 when Spurrier quit and we lost the Citadel was also the same year we took Clemson 37-33 at home in I think a larger line than this. Last year at Clemson Gamecocks got throttled, as expected. From the minute I watched the fsu game last year and how much the QB was running for his life I could tell that was going to be Bentley, and it was. This year Clemson DL does not seem to be as oppressive. The defense is what it is for cocks- top 50 ypp bend don't break defense. What I do not know what to expect is the offense. Roper is generally a better play caller from a dog role than up 14 but I thought he was more than conservative against UGA in spots where we should have been a lot more risky to try and win. I do not think clemson is sleep walking here though so them coming out flat seems very unlikely. This line over the last 9 weeks has dropped from something like 20 to the current of 14. I was hoping for that 17 that was there on the GOY a few weeks ago. I have not made a bet on it yet but I do not think it will be a boat race like last year in clemson.
 
ksimpsc said:
2015 when Spurrier quit and we lost the Citadel was also the same year we took Clemson 37-33 at home in I think a larger line than this. Last year at Clemson Gamecocks got throttled, as expected. From the minute I watched the fsu game last year and how much the QB was running for his life I could tell that was going to be Bentley, and it was. This year Clemson DL does not seem to be as oppressive. The defense is what it is for cocks- top 50 ypp bend don't break defense. What I do not know what to expect is the offense. Roper is generally a better play caller from a dog role than up 14 but I thought he was more than conservative against UGA in spots where we should have been a lot more risky to try and win. I do not think clemson is sleep walking here though so them coming out flat seems very unlikely. This line over the last 9 weeks has dropped from something like 20 to the current of 14. I was hoping for that 17 that was there on the GOY a few weeks ago. I have not made a bet on it yet but I do not think it will be a boat race like last year in clemson.
Click to expand...
I believe in Will The Thrill Muschamp and his defense....I will be backing your Gamcocks this Saturday...fwiwi!!

:breakdance:
 
Navy
Cal
aTm
Hawaii

First run thru. Very quick though.
Gonna focus on tonight's gm.
BG maybe
 
Typically can bet up to 1000 on MLs...local uses BetOnline as the shell. No parlays, teasers or live bets tho

Need my buddy's local that uses 5dimes, he won't take anyone else on and it sucks...been begging for a few years
 
Scratch-off lotto ticket #1 for the week...there's one football play in there:
  1. 11/21/2017 7:00 PM College Football 103 Bowling Green* +290 vs Eastern Michigan for 1st Half
  2. 11/21/2017 9:00 PM College Basketball 705 UT Arlington* +465 vs Alabama
  3. 11/21/2017 1:30 PM College Basketball 731 Marquette* +515 vs Wichita State
  4. 11/21/2017 7:00 PM College Basketball 703 Southern Illinois* +575 vs Louisville for 1st Half
  5. 11/21/2017 7:00 PM College Basketball 755 Western Carolina* +415 vs Massachusetts for 1st Half
Risking $8.00 (16 parlays at $0.50) To Win $5,378.77
 
I always check this thread first every week to get my brain going.

I think the story on S Florida is they are failing the eye test. Each week they seem to become less efficient and regress a little from the way they played under Taggert. Their offense looked like a bunch of guys who had never played together against Tulsa. In addition, they have the worst ATS record of any one-loss or undefeated team and have only won once ATS on the road. S Florida was a scoring machine last year, but under Strong the total has only gone over 3 times. I could see why against Tulsa. To me this game is either UCF or pass

I see some dogs I like this week at first glance:
Cal (all year long I've taken tough teams against UCLA and won every time)
Wash St
Stanford
S Carolina ( I know it's a rivalry, but I also know Clemson--coaches and players--have at least some attention on next week)
Fresno State (this one is hard to handicap because the same two teams play against next week in the title game)
Auburn
Florida (probably the longest shot of this bunch. They could quit like they did against Mizzou, but if there is any game where they will play tough and play for Shannon it's this one)

One I don't like is Texas Tech. They have the worst kicking game in the country. I forgot that last week when I took them at home against TCU. They would have covered if they could have just kicked FGs from extra point range, but they couldn't.
 
Lotto Ticket #2:

  1. 11/24/2017 12:00 PM College Football 129 Navy* +170 vs Houston U
  2. 11/24/2017 8:00 PM College Football 141 Texas Tech* +290 vs Texas
  3. 11/25/2017 12:00 PM College Football 145 Connecticut* +180 vs Cincinnati U
  4. 11/25/2017 7:30 PM College Football 198 South Carolina* +425 vs Clemson
  5. 11/21/2017 7:00 PM College Football 103 Bowling Green* +290 vs Eastern Michigan for 1st Half
Risking $32.00 (16 parlays at $2.00) To Win $3,877.67

:barman:
 
Tahoe, I agree with your assessment of USF having been on the grounds for 4 of their games and watched the rest. The diehards that know more than I do complain about the vanilla offense, lack of a creative scheme, and really no cohesion on that side of the ball. No question. Special teams has been another area of criticism and again I agree. However, the defense is rock solid and imo will keep them in the game and give them a chance to pull off the upset. And don't forget about Flowers. Eye test tells me he's been playing with handcuffs most of the season. OC really sucks is the complaint I hear the most. Dive off tackle gets old when ineffective. I believe it was the Illinois game in the 1st QTR when Q looked to the sideline for the play and immediately his head dropped in disappointment with the call. Dive off tackle. This happened many times throughout the season where Q was just disgusted with the call from the sideline. The rest of the offense sees his body language and it becomes contagious. Flowers can be the difference in this game if he's allowed to play his game. He's a dynamic play maker when he gets loose and can make the deep throw if allowed to. Both these teams have thrived off turnovers in their blowouts and had to scramble against inferior teams when they lose the turnover battle. I think this one comes down to turnovers. I did a double take when I saw the 11 posted on this game. There is not a whole lot of difference in talent between these two squads. I would recommend a play at anything over +300.
 
Not sure this matters with 18-22 year olds but USF played last Thursday at home so 8 days rest where Central played last Saturday in Philly so 6 days rest. The two schools are only 90 minutes away from each other down I-4 so the travel is not much of a factor.
 
babyneedshoes said:
Tahoe, I agree with your assessment of USF having been on the grounds for 4 of their games and watched the rest. The diehards that know more than I do complain about the vanilla offense, lack of a creative scheme, and really no cohesion on that side of the ball. No question. Special teams has been another area of criticism and again I agree. However, the defense is rock solid and imo will keep them in the game and give them a chance to pull off the upset. And don't forget about Flowers. Eye test tells me he's been playing with handcuffs most of the season. OC really sucks is the complaint I hear the most. Dive off tackle gets old when ineffective. I believe it was the Illinois game in the 1st QTR when Q looked to the sideline for the play and immediately his head dropped in disappointment with the call. Dive off tackle. This happened many times throughout the season where Q was just disgusted with the call from the sideline. The rest of the offense sees his body language and it becomes contagious. Flowers can be the difference in this game if he's allowed to play his game. He's a dynamic play maker when he gets loose and can make the deep throw if allowed to. Both these teams have thrived off turnovers in their blowouts and had to scramble against inferior teams when they lose the turnover battle. I think this one comes down to turnovers. I did a double take when I saw the 11 posted on this game. There is not a whole lot of difference in talent between these two squads. I would recommend a play at anything over +300.
Click to expand...
Thanks for sharing your thoughts baby, great info
 
I couldn't believe the USF - UCF number. Like everyone else I haven't been impressed with USF this season, even though they are 9-1, no way have they played to their potential and as has been stated here, it has to be the coaching change, system and calls. There is just no way I could justify this line at double digits based off of their capabilities. UCF is good, but surely not invincible. Temple just is not ready to play a team who is better than them, UConn surprisingly had some success at times (with QB that hadn't started or played much since week 1) and SMU had plenty of chances on O vs UCF, but their D had a couple too many breakdowns - USF D should be better. I went out of that ML limb with SMU vs UCF, so I definitely would strongly consider it with USF. I did ML against USF with Houston, a win, but that game wasn't a slam dunk. Moments in that game it felt more like it would lose even ats - so just to say that yeah Houston beat USF but the game didn't always have that feel to it. USF just hasn't been cashing their drives that often. Which of course could happen again here as it has often this year. That would be my key concern. But like babyneedsshoes says, I really like having Flowers in this game. It the staff is limiting his chances with play calls maybe he can ad-lib more on his own from called passing plays, what are they going to do bench him.
 
Friday considerations:

Buffalo +172
Bulls averaging 574y their last 2 and 534 their last 3 since Jackson's return at QB. Two years ago, in Leipold's first season, this team needed 1 win over their final 3 to be bowl eligible, they lost all 3. Have to think they will be super motivated to get their 6th win here. Ohio a high quality team, but off disappointing loss to Akron and lost the division and MAC Champ opportunity. Their O still going to be a challenge, but it may be difficult for them to match Buffalo's energy level.

USF +289
See above. UCF gets more out of their possessions, but USF surely has the capability. Would be shocked if USF D didn't keep it close. One note, I had UCF+12.5 in this game last year and USF scored a very late unnecessary TD that really burned my ass and I'm sure that Frost and his crew remember it even more than I do. UCF SOD at their own 8 with 1:44 left. UCF had no timeouts. USF ran it 3x, and then on 4th-and-1 from the 1 scored a TD with :11 left and won by 17. Complete bullshit. Won't matter for the ML, they either win or they don't, but I bet Frost will return the favor if given the chance.

Virginia +230
VT has won 13 straight. Don't think I've been impressed with VT since September? Their D is pretty good, but the O just flat out sucks and it has for quite a while now. Virginia not very consistent in their games, but when you get the good Virginia it's fun to be on them. Doubt they hang their head much for coming up short last week, with instate rival here who owns them, I think they would use it as a confidence boost that if they can play with Miami, surely they can play with anybody. Facing Canes D last week likely a good test for this week as well.
 
B.A.R. said:
You guys are the best about these so give me any confidence in or non-confidence in the following...

Texas St +1500 (will do this for the min out of principle)
South Florida +340
Texas Tech +315
Cal +240
Indiana +120
Kentucky +315
UNLV +125
Hawaii +132


Thanks!
Click to expand...

Texas State is interesting in that they had been playing well to end this year and Troy has shown to be beatable (South Bama, Idaho close win). The fact that Texas State just played Ark St could provide a little insight. ASU likely pissed off their upset the week before, and while I bet Texas St in that one, feel a little fortunate to get that win. ASU dominated the game more than the score and held Texas St to their worst yardage and ypp output all season. Could that be good ASU or has Tex St lost something, maybe flat off the disappointing GaState loss the week prior? Hard to figure. Ark St in my mind is the class of the Sun Belt. As big as the ML is you can throw some change on it and not really care. The hard decision is what to do ats, I myself have not decided.

USF well covered here.

Texas Tech, would have to echo the thoughts of TahoeLegend about their kicking situation. It has to disgust Kingsbury. I saw him on the sideline when that K missed the ultra short FG, he looked like he wanted to walk right out of the stadium. So that is the black cloud here. TT isn't good, but they can run the ball now and can play some D. Other than kicking issues, I can't think of a reason why TT couldn't compete in this game, turnovers would have to be the only way. So ATS I do like their chances, ML, not sure.

Cal? I backed both Bruins and Bears last week and really loved what I got out of both of them so it is hard for me to guess which one isn't going to play that good this week. Maybe read this and see if it sways you to Cal: http://www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/la-sp-ucla-football-20171122-story.html. I'd say this, if we were to get the performance and efforts that both teams delivered last week I would lay pts with UCLA. Problem is that was probably their best game all season, a performance especially defense, not seen on any kind of regular or expected basis. So how do they follow it up? Rosen's last game? Tend to believe that Cal will show up, compete, but their O isn't all that hard to stop and UCLA showed they can play a little D for atleast one game this year. Its a tough call. Probably just depends what you think UCLA will do.

Indiana? Feels like maybe there is a solid winner on one of those teams...IU competes well, although they are off playing two of the worst teams in the league and Lagow turnover prone still liability, just didn't matter vs RU and ILL. I'd probably rather take my chances with Purdue actually.

UK, UNLV, Hawaii, no opinion at the moment.
 
Anyone see Colorado having a chance against Utah's porous run defense vs Pac-12?

And Georgia Tech's defense keeping them in this.

Defense. @JROCK1966

Are there trends supporting GT and USF as big dogs because of their defense I guess?


I don't see Colorado, GT and USF losing by double digits, I don't think they're that much worse than opponent. GT always plays up to opponent, and down to unranked opponent. USF awesome talk above, thanks. And I think Colorado can counter offensively whatever Utah has to offer, see it as a shootout coming down to the wire. Same deal with Nevada being dogged vs UNLV

Temple seems kind of "too easy"

I say no way to Cal.
 
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No mention of Iowa State. @JROCK1966 pointed out before the poor record of teams (like Virginia, now) the week after they achieve bowl eligibility with an upset. I think zero wins SU.
 
Anyone else have UVA last week, yet feel like VT is the play here?

I will bring up other dog games here if ok....

Anyone think Tulane has it in them?? A win and they go bowling.....
 
I will give you some solid dogs, including one that I am taking plus the points but haven't bet yet. Lots of motivational angles in here which can certainly be dangerous

USF - Per sagarin the two teams have played the 90th and 121st ranked schedules in cfb. Which means, they have played relatively similar and weak schedules. UCF yards per play is roughly a yard and a half better than usf and they gain about 30 yards or so more per game than usf. usf giving up three quarters or so of a yard less per play than ucf and about 50 less yards per game. Were it just that, then just about everyone would be on usf plus the pts and at this ml value. The problem is that one coach is really good and the other one is charlie strong and Strong teams always have special teams gafs. It is an easy ATS spread bet to make which in my mind means there is ml value.

Buffalo - They need it for bowl eligibility and against two of the other three top MAC schools they lost both times (didn't play toledo) by a combined two points. Meaning they can compete with the top teams in that conference. Also senior day at Buffalo .... seems like a lot of motivation. Meanwhile, akron clinched the East and Ohio is already bowl eligible ... seems like it would be a flat spot for them. Talking myself into it.

kentucky - Hate to go against Lamar in a game like this but uk is better in the trenches and sports the only truly functioning defense in the game. Not sure it matters with Jackson but I think this is a one possession game and at that ml price it seems worth a little.

UTEP - Don't laugh. UAB lost to charlotte and ball state this year. They can throw a stinker game out there. Meanwhile UTEP just six games short of bowl eligibility and will be looking for a win.

UNLV - Basically getting the better team plus pts with more to play for. Should be a volatile high scoring game, weather permitting.

Illinois - I cannot make the case for this. NW 6 wins in a row, Illini 9 losses in a row. Feels like a game that would bust a lot of teasers and parlay cards of the schmoes. NW playing really well though. My spidey sense is tingling just a little bit though.

Washington State - Line seems completely ridiculous so the ml has to have value. Not sure where this line is coming from. Teams are relatively even on paper, having played similar level of schedule. Some match up concerns for both offenses I think. It's gonna be a few big plays that decide the game. Rare case of little brother having a shot so I think we see motivation. I like this ml.

Auburn - Because I never bet on Alabama but took them this week. Whenever I back bama they lose outright.
 
twinkie13 said:
Anyone else have UVA last week, yet feel like VT is the play here?

I will bring up other dog games here if ok....

Anyone think Tulane has it in them?? A win and they go bowling.....
Click to expand...

SMU defense is so bad that it has to be considered as possible.
 
Thanks for your post VK, I tend to agree with most of it

WSU will not beat UW, guess that's where we separate. I like UK/Ill/UNLV I think
 
Rough past 3 weeks, heard that last weekend is first time since playoffs started that there was no top ten team upset.
Hopefully will be a weekend with some crazy upsets and despite losing trend I'm sticking with the game plan here.
Trick as always is finding the surprises.
Looking closer at the home dogs like South Carolina, Kentucky as two possible adds but not enough to back Minnesota, Maryland, or Pitt

Going with the following for .80 units on the spread and .20 on the ML.

Washington State + 325
USF + 300
Navy + 170
UNC + 550
aTm + 320
Auburn + 175
and .10 units on long shots Texas State + 1500 and West Va + 1400
Parlay of Wash St / USF / Navy

Happy Thanksgiving all and best on your plays all weekend
 
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