Week 13 ML Dogs

Saturday considerations:

Duke +351
Devils snapped 6 game losing streak with impressive win over GT. Now Duke can salvage the season with a 6th win here and bowl trip. D hasn't been the big problem in their losing streak, it has been the O. QB Jones is running alot again, something I am happy to see. Last 3 games avg 17 att netting 59 ypg avg. He was avg only 6 att per game the previou 3 weeks prior to the current stretch. Not sure if Cut or him were trying to showcase the arm or the passing game more, but he is a dual threat and needs to be used as such. So that is back. He is also completing 67% the last 2 weeks off the bye after going through a really rough patch. Duke is actually probably better running it and WF ranks 12th ACC in run D...giving up 800y to GT and ND will do that to you. But even vs more conventional run Os, they have allowed 176 ypg (4.35) in their other ACC games and the trend is down the last several games after more respectable D games earlier this season. WF has allowed 562 ypg the last 2 weeks and were outgained 502-334 in the win vs NCSt. WF's two best players on D have missed or not been 100%. DE Ejiofor was listed as starter last week, but DNP. He is listed as starter again this week with no update on his status. S Jessie Bates did play last week, but is not fully healthy.

North Carolina +534
Depending on your BC number, NCSt is 0-2 ats since losing to Clemson. Pack has a history of having to respond after heart breaking loses and they will have to do it again as last week was a tough one with the would-be winning TD fumbled through the EZ with under 2m left, then they get the ball back and throw INT in EZ. NCSt still good team, but feel like some wind has come out of their sails following the ND-Clemson losses. UNC may be playing their best football of the season right now, played well enough to nearly beat Miami, upset a mediocre Pitt team on the road and got to beat up on a Western Carolina team last week. Things are going to speed up this week for the Elliot led O, he's 38-59-475-6-0 in his 2 starts. NCSt won last year in an upset and in fact, NCSt has not been favored in this series since 2007 and this is the biggest point spread since 2003! In those last 14 their have been 9 upsets. The avg margin of victory in those last 14 games is 11 pts, 8 of which were 1 score games...and 0 of those last 14 had the favorite winning large enough to cover this spread. The two largest margins of victory over this span were 28 and 31 pts, both by the underdog!

South Carolina +410
Carolina is having their best season since they won 11 games 3 straight years 2011-2013. SC had won 5 straight, but Clemson has now won 3 straight (2 blowouts and an unexpected close game). This SC team may not always be getting the results the box scores have implied they should, but they have found a way to make timely plays, key stops and turnovers with regularity. SC has been competitive in just about all their games this year. It might sound like a stretch to say SC was competitive vs UGA, and that's true, Georgia was always in control of the game, but a couple plays here or there and they are in that game (or a couple plays the other way and they don't even cover). Still, SC finds a way to stay in games with their three loses being just by 10, 7 and 14. Clemson has won their IA games since the Syracuse loss by just 12.6 ppg (only cover was in the waning seconds vs FSU). Going back to that Syracuse game, everyone likes to focus on the Bryant injury and then being knocked out, but Syracuse did rack up 440 yards on them. The only other competent O that Clemson has faced since then is NCSt who outgained them 491-415 in Raleigh. SC probably not as well equipped as NCSt, but I think they are pretty damn close and certainly as good or better than Syracuse and much much better suited to compete than 2016. Clemson O is avg a full TD less vs their IA teams at this point last year compared to now. Clemson shows some chinks in the armor I think and as a home dog in a rivalry game with some tools, this should be a close game and upset could be in play. SC has pulled 4 upsets this year and is 6-0 ATS as a dog.
 
I would say SC has more weapons than NCSt but can the OC utilize them properly? We will see. Great write ups.
 
JROCK1966 said:
ksimp this is not related to the above post but just wanted to get your attention and thoughts on the Clemson game. When I saw the line, I jumped because I know this is going to a huugggeeee game for the Gamecocks at home...you all have not won in how long?? 4 years?? I also am finding it very odd that Clemson is NOT popping up on my queries which I run that give high prob win %'s....in other words, your Gamecocks seem like the live doggie for the week, no?
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I would not waste your money. Upsets in this series, like any rivalry series, happen when the dog has a reasonably comparable team that seriously underperformed expectations but was able to put it together and use the rivalry game for some degree of redemption. See Clemson 1976 and 1980. Or when the favorite undervalues the rivalry for one reason or another like 2009.

But significant upsets in this series are rare. Clemson hasn't upset USC since 1980 (27-6 as +7 in the historic "orange britches" game). Clemson's only been dogged 5 times in the last 36 games. On the other side, obviously, USC has had a ton of dog roles, but they've only pulled one upset as a dog of more than 4.5, and that was on the road. They're 1-12 straight up as a home dog in this series going back to 1980 (including seven games in which they were +4 or less). The only win was in 2009, under Spurrier as +3, and the reason was that Clemson had finally won a championship (ACC Atlantic) for the first time since 1991 and was headed to the ACCCG the next week for the first time.

One more thing: After the game last year --- a 56-7 rout -- Bentley said he didn't think Clemson was the better team. As if Clemson needed another reason to focus on this game....

I don't see anything pointing to an upset here. I would not consider this at anything less than +2000. In fact, I'll be on Clemson 1H big.
 
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Not disagreeing with anything above but find it hard to believe that a comment from last year after a route will be what motivates Clemson.
 
It's just something else to consider. Bama wasn't going to beat Vandy 59-0 until they started talking smack.
 
That was the week of the game you are referring to a comment made by the losing QB after Clemson sacked him probably 10 times that game. But hey people dig for motivation from anywhere I'd just be shocked if anyone actually remembers that comment. I didn't remember it until you mentioned it and I remember laughing hearilty when Bentley said it. Clemson probably had a similar reaction.
 
ksimpsc said:
That was the week of the game you are referring to a comment made by the losing QB after Clemson sacked him probably 10 times that game. But hey people dig for motivation from anywhere I'd just be shocked if anyone actually remembers that comment. I didn't remember it until you mentioned it and I remember laughing hearilty when Bentley said it. Clemson probably had a similar reaction.
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We are talking about Dabo.
 
s--k said:
South Carolina +410
Carolina is having their best season since they won 11 games 3 straight years 2011-2013. SC had won 5 straight, but Clemson has now won 3 straight (2 blowouts and an unexpected close game). This SC team may not always be getting the results the box scores have implied they should, but they have found a way to make timely plays, key stops and turnovers with regularity. SC has been competitive in just about all their games this year. It might sound like a stretch to say SC was competitive vs UGA, and that's true, Georgia was always in control of the game, but a couple plays here or there and they are in that game (or a couple plays the other way and they don't even cover). Still, SC finds a way to stay in games with their three loses being just by 10, 7 and 14. Clemson has won their IA games since the Syracuse loss by just 12.6 ppg (only cover was in the waning seconds vs FSU). Going back to that Syracuse game, everyone likes to focus on the Bryant injury and then being knocked out, but Syracuse did rack up 440 yards on them. The only other competent O that Clemson has faced since then is NCSt who outgained them 491-415 in Raleigh. SC probably not as well equipped as NCSt, but I think they are pretty damn close and certainly as good or better than Syracuse and much much better suited to compete than 2016. Clemson O is avg a full TD less vs their IA teams at this point last year compared to now. Clemson shows some chinks in the armor I think and as a home dog in a rivalry game with some tools, this should be a close game and upset could be in play. SC has pulled 4 upsets this year and is 6-0 ATS as a dog.
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That wasn't a "close game" two years ago in the sense that the game was ever in doubt. After USC punted with 12 minutes left in the 2Q, USC never had the ball with a chance to take a lead. The Syracuse loss was a fluke due to the QB situation. There is nothing from that game that can instruct us in capping Clemson games going forward except that we've seen again that Streeter, ScElli-ott, and Dabo sometimes put the wrong QB on the field. However, KB is healthy, and HJ finally has been promoted to #2, so that's not a concern this week. UGA was in a huge letdown/lookahead spot against USC, and the outcome of that game was exactly what I expected. I called it 24-10, and that's what I got.

ksimpsc said:
That was the week of the game you are referring to a comment made by the losing QB after Clemson sacked him probably 10 times that game. But hey people dig for motivation from anywhere I'd just be shocked if anyone actually remembers that comment. I didn't remember it until you mentioned it and I remember laughing hearilty when Bentley said it. Clemson probably had a similar reaction.
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This is the kind of thing that handicappers note and remember.

http://www.iberianet.com/national/s...cle_8bf98b41-f2c1-5396-a579-9bf8dfe80ef0.html
 
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Nothing in that article has anything to do with bentleys comments from last year. The 5th win in a row is more important than anything else.

The game two years ago was a close game in the sense that everyone thought the Gamecocks would be blown out having lost to the citadel and the head coach quitting mid season with a Shawn Elliot at interim head coach. As you said Clemson was covering almost the whole game but it got exciting at the end. I don't know if anyone that has said "we should have won that game" I think the general narrative was SC put up a good fight for what I believe was like a 20pt line or definitely at least 17.
 
Nvm I see it at the end of the article about his comments but still seems like a reach compared to potentially getting SC back for the 5 in a row crap
 
M.W. said:
That wasn't a "close game" two years ago in the sense that the game was ever in doubt. After USC punted with 12 minutes left in the 2Q, USC never had the ball with a chance to take a lead. The Syracuse loss was a fluke due to the QB situation. There is nothing from that game that can instruct us in capping Clemson games going forward except that we've seen again that Streeter, ScElli-ott, and Dabo sometimes put the wrong QB on the field. However, KB is healthy, and HJ finally has been promoted to #2, so that's not a concern this week. UGA was in a huge letdown/lookahead spot against USC, and the outcome of that game was exactly what I expected. I called it 24-10, and that's what I got.
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Bryant doesn't play D, Cuse got them.
 
No, not at all. The D didn't have its best game of the season, but it still did better than any other visitor to the Dome that didn't have inside info.

The QB thing cost Clemson about 28 points. It was a three-point game. Do the math.
 
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Friday plays
.80 on points and .20 on ML

USF + 10 and ML +300
Navy + 5 and ML + 170
Virginia + 7 and ML +235
Cal + 7 and ML +230
Buffalo + 5 1/2 and ML + 200
Texas State + 24 and .10 on ML + 1500

ML Parlay Navy/USF/Virginia/Cal/Buffalo $10 > $2530
 
M.W. said:
No, not at all. The D didn't have its best game of the season, but it still did better than any other visitor to the Dome that didn't have inside info.

The QB thing cost Clemson about 28 points. It was a three-point game. Do the math.
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28 pts? So Clemson should've scored 52 pts? We see things different.
 
Dog MLs for me today:

Navy +170
USF +285
Texas Tech +290
Cal +230

Are all smaller wagers except Cal, might add UVA later if I feel like it, adding FIU +149 now
 
Takes some stones but Pitt ML is juicy, classic look ahead for the Canes. Wish there was some shitty weather...but 50 yawn
 
Interesting, I don't think so at all...they're playing next week, and even a loss today they may still well be in the playoff with a win next weekend...I can't cap coming from the stand point of NC or bust, that would kill me. But that doesn't even apply here imo...ACC winner is in I believe.
 
Looking for anything to explain the bump in the Ohio/Buffalo numbers. Was 3.5 just a few days ago, sitting at 6.5 now. The move seems to go against the logic of Buffalo needs to win to possibly advance their season for their first bowl in 4 years and the first under this coachin staff. Ohio doesn't have anything special to play for other than just wanting to win. Ohio is good, however, with the QB situation that UB has dealt with this year, one could certainly make a case that they have 2-3 more wins than they do currently. Bulls are pretty good too.

Ohio's #1 receiver Brendan Cope is believed to be out. Papi White may in reality be their #1, but missed several games. But still Cope is a key receiver for them.

Can't find any personnel related news for Buffalo that could've moved the line. WR Anthony Johnson is one of the best in the league and Bulls have a couple stars on D as well.

QB Jackson has thrown for 300y 3 straight, first Buffalo QB to do that.
 
SEC, ACC winners in, undefeated Wisky, probably Big 12 winner if OU or TCU...guess it's open for a 2nd place team but they will all have 2 losses, unless it's Miami or Bama, not sure a 2 loss TCU that wins the big 12 doesn't make it....no Pac12 obviously
 
KJ said:
Dog MLs for me today:

Navy +170
USF +285
Texas Tech +290
Cal +230

Are all smaller wagers except Cal, might add UVA later if I feel like it, adding FIU +149 now
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Looks good. I might lean Houston, but certainly would not be surprised if Navy won.

I'm eyeing FIU. Like this staff to fight hard to end season the right way at home. WKU has been hard to trust this season, don't think Sanford is that great of a head coach yet. Thought MTSU D did a pretty good job vs them for most of 3 qrts. What can you share on your FIU thoughts?
 
booksbestfriend said:
Keep your eye on Arkansas. That line has plummeted. Hanging on by a hook. Somebody may know something.
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I've got 8 still but don't put much thought in the 9.5 to 7.5 stuff, if they do drop the hook it's for a reason...although in college with so many missed XPs every point matters. I kinda like the hogs today, think they score in bunches. No team total yet to back that up.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Keep your eye on Arkansas. That line has plummeted. Hanging on by a hook. Somebody may know something.
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Was seeing that. Hard to not like Mizzou, but I'm not into road chalk. Home team is 3-0 and dog is 2-1 in the series. Ark is just not a very good team. No bowl, this is their finale. Could be dangerous perhaps.
 
s--k said:
Was seeing that. Hard to not like Mizzou, but I'm not into road chalk. Home team is 3-0 and dog is 2-1 in the series. Ark is just not a very good team. No bowl, this is their finale. Could be dangerous perhaps.
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Opened at 11. Blew through a couple key numbers.
 
I was just looking at that. ArKansas.
Really like Mizzu though, they have been putting up points and playing good D, however that was vs Vols & Vandy...... Ark is on par w/ these last 2 teams in my eyes, even though I think Ark beats both Vols & Vandy if ghey (Ark) played them this Week.
 
It may be closer than you think no doubt
Ark +pts would be the way I play it.
If the ML hits so be it. I'll pass and watch.
In fact I'll play a 1H ML on Ark.
 
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booksbestfriend said:
Haven’t watched a snap of Tulane. Do they play a true option? If so, we have a b2b with Houston.
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They don't do FB dives and such. It is spread, shotgun option. Not sure if their OL blocking is the same as Navy's or not.
 
booksbestfriend said:
If we get below 7, I’m going to Load up on Mizzou. They may be the most cofident team in NCAA right now.
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If it gets below 7, holy RLM...can't imagine with 68% on Mizzou and a move across 10 and 7...fuck might just play Arkansas because of that
 
It is a while ago, but still in their current 7 straight ATS covers, I think Missouri's losses vs UK and UGA are perhaps more impressive than beating Idaho, UConn, UF, UT, Vandy. Those are some bad teams they've beaten, but they have beaten them handily and impressively.
 
s--k said:
It is a while ago, but still in their current 7 straight ATS covers, I think Missouri's losses vs UK and UGA are perhaps more impressive than beating Idaho, UConn, UF, UT, Vandy. Those are some bad teams they've beaten, but they have beaten them handily and impressively.
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Makes me lean more to my initial thought and Mizzu. Again maybe Ark hangs for the 1H.
 
I was running some #s ......
I have W Mich a little closer than the line is.
Granted, I didn't take in the whole season #s ....
But I have this game being very close and a turnover here or there and WMich could win this.
On a side note my total is about 3 higher than 61.
 
I am going to play WM. QB still has some growing pains, but he played pretty well last week at NIU. Toledo will want to win no doubt, but they do have the all important MAC Title game next week.
 
Today is nuts...dogs will bark of course, brains will fry. I just had my 2nd breakfast and it's 9:30...let's bark
 
s--k said:
Looking for anything to explain the bump in the Ohio/Buffalo numbers. Was 3.5 just a few days ago, sitting at 6.5 now. The move seems to go against the logic of Buffalo needs to win to possibly advance their season for their first bowl in 4 years and the first under this coachin staff. Ohio doesn't have anything special to play for other than just wanting to win. Ohio is good, however, with the QB situation that UB has dealt with this year, one could certainly make a case that they have 2-3 more wins than they do currently. Bulls are pretty good too.

Ohio's #1 receiver Brendan Cope is believed to be out. Papi White may in reality be their #1, but missed several games. But still Cope is a key receiver for them.

Can't find any personnel related news for Buffalo that could've moved the line. WR Anthony Johnson is one of the best in the league and Bulls have a couple stars on D as well.

QB Jackson has thrown for 300y 3 straight, first Buffalo QB to do that.
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Forecast today in Buffalo 50, but 20-30 mph winds with occasional gusts to 40! That weather favors the better running team, Ohio.
 
FYI on FIU WRs...Owens is an enormous loss.

Bowl eligible but not bowl certain, FIU is riding a two-game losing streak, no longer has a chance to win Conference USA and will host the league’s top-ranked passing offense Friday night when the Panthers take on Western Kentucky.

To make matters even more precarious for FIU (6-4, 4-3), the Panthers will be playing without their two top receivers, Thomas Owens and Julian Williams, who are both injured and out for the rest of the regular season.

Owens, a senior, leads the league in receiving yards per game (98.6). He also leads FIU in catches (59), yards (887) and touchdowns (six).

“It was a tough loss — we were pretty upset about that,” FIU sophomore receiver Austin Maloney said of Owens’ injury. “We knew we lost someone special. He was killing it this year.”

Williams, a redshirt junior, has 19 catches and is second on the team in receiving yards (266).

With Owens and Williams out, FIU will rely on sophomores Tony Gaiter IV (25 catches, 248 yards); Maloney (14 catches, 221 yards); and Darrius Scott (13 catches, 144 yards).

Freshmen Bryce Singleton (eight catches) and Shermar Thornton (five catches) have also moved up in the rotation. But even combining the catches of those five receivers, they don’t match the 78 grabs turned in by Owens and Williams.


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/c...niversity/article186172973.html#storylink=cpy
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