Week 13 Discussion Thread

Great card in Week #13....

Bills at Patriots has huge implications for division and playoffs...

Mike White era heads to Minnesota to take on Minnesota. I'm curious how the Vikes offense does vs a very good defense...

Commies and Giants another huge division battle. The GMEN struggling a bit, whole Washington is heating up nicely...

Titans head to Philly to see ole pal AJ Brown. This will be an interesting game of ball control here...

I saw a lot of Seahawks money coming in initially... This is a good spot to put the Rams out of their misery. Seattle off a heartbreaking loss, let's see what kind of moxie they have...

Dolphins at Niners is the game of the day in my opinion. I can't wait to see how these two teams match up!

Playoff rematch with Cincy and the Bengals... We all remember the wild game at this venue last December. As a few have stated, the Bungles are flying under the radar right now...

Chargers and Raiders always is a great time!

The MNF and SNF games are just "okay" but do have some intrigue. ...

Either way, byes are gone and this might be the best card of the year...
 
B.A.R. said:
Great card in Week #13....

Bills at Patriots has huge implications for division and playoffs...

Mike White era heads to Minnesota to take on Minnesota. I'm curious how the Vikes offense does vs a very good defense...

Commies and Giants another huge division battle. The GMEN struggling a bit, whole Washington is heating up nicely...

Titans head to Philly to see ole pal AJ Brown. This will be an interesting game of ball control here...

I saw a lot of Seahawks money coming in initially... This is a good spot to put the Rams out of their misery. Seattle off a heartbreaking loss, let's see what kind of moxie they have...

Dolphins at Niners is the game of the day in my opinion. I can't wait to see how these two teams match up!

Playoff rematch with Cincy and the Bengals... We all remember the wild game at this venue last December. As a few have stated, the Bungles are flying under the radar right now...

Chargers and Raiders always is a great time!

The MNF and SNF games are just "okay" but do have some intrigue. ...

Either way, byes are gone and this might be the best card of the year...
Click to expand...

Hard to forget the last couple ass kickings bills have given pats.

I loved jets last week as I thought they were basically a qb away from being a legit team, carving up the crappy bears d doesn’t mean a ton but Is Vikings d much better? I believe In jets d enough to think they give cousins problems. Sure woulda liked to get the hook to back jets tho.

Washington/Gmen appear to be a tail of 2 teams going different directions, I was thrilled to cover w nyg on thanksgiving but that was more about fading Dallas laying a huge number, Gmen were hard enough to buy when they were healthy, now they still have a suspect qb with very few weapons to work w, I dunno how they score much as teams are taking barkley away?

I think tits are the perfect team to give Philly problems as it seems giving them a taste their own medicine w a physical run game is the way to beat them. I dunno if titans win but think you gotta take the points in what should be a close and extremely physical game.

I have no doubt Seahawks win but I dunno if I can lay the number? Lot of points w a super low total.

I been all about the fish bandwagon but niners easily been my favorite team all year. Most physical team in the league vs a Miami team I think classifies as more finesse. I gotta stick w my old school mentality and roll w the physical team. Gotta worry bout Tua in this one after he was getting beat up so bad vs Texans they sat him early, if you can’t protect him against houston this gotta be scary!

Cincy vs the bengals huh? Lol. How healthy is cincy coming into this one? Tough to bavk them if mixon and/or chase still out vs kc.

Raiders are starting to more often resemble the team I picked to get to super bowl (lol), I’m chargers biggest detractor, you see how they made Conner look like Walter Peyton? Seems like the coach has stopped taking as many stupid risk but he still can’t get his defense to stop the run, jacobs is gonna be a real problem for them! Dunno if I bet raiders or simply jacobs props?

Dallas laying double digits again? Colts style of play should keep this within 10 I would think.

No clue with saints/Bucs as saints nothing like what I expected this year.
 
Pats are a fraud, look at the Qbs/ offensives they've actually played this year. I believe that defense is more of what we saw last week, than all year.

Vikes are a fraud as well, but they continue to face incompetent defenses. See how backups do after a week of game tape.

skins/giants is my game of the week. Tells me whos/who. I thought last week was the week to sell the skins, and it would have been if Mariota doesnt send a INT late in the game at the 4. They flying high, but this is a home and home with the giants with a bye week inbetween, if i was betting, Giants ML would get my action.

I couldnt for the love of god figure out why Philly was only -6.5 against the Packers. Think that made Dallas a small fav on a neutral against philly. Philly can be run on, this game is all about ball control. which titans do best. wouldnt touch this game with Eggmans money.

Who starts for the Rams, not sure it really matters though. they sold theyre souls for a Ship. Every single team in the league would do those deals a 100 times over. Bunch of vets, just going through the motions. Any real team would have beat KC last weekend.

Niners/Fish, what a fucking game. Fish dominated against a bad team, like good teams should......did SF do the same? They won because Andy fucking Dalton was under center. Quick fumble my Kamara to give them 3, and then a late 2nd quarter Td to make it 10-0. Saints had mutlitple options to score and didnt. Tua wont give them those options. SF a good ball club, but id be selling high right here on them. South Beach has some serious BDE right now.

KC/Cincy, line says alot opened -3.5 down to 2. Shut down Kelce shut down KC. They exit week 1 of the playoffs.

Chargers/Raiders, will come down to which coach fucks up least.

Colts decimated by injuries, low total, but Matty gonna get killed like Cousins did two weeks ago. This one is a blow out. Lay it. tease it, and parlay it.

Tom gonna Tom, saints are dog shit. Plus potential Kamara injury, and they sticking with Dalton. Lay it.
 
Pats are definitely a fraud but they still have a defense.

If the Bills were completely healthy I would be banging this game up to -9.5.

They aren't healthy.

Rousseau looks like he'll be back along with Edmunds. Both are huge & if for some reason they have a setback I think it could really be a problem.

Buffalo needs Edmunds as he is great in coverage- Noodle arm Mac will likely be looking to HUnter Henry & Edmunds won't let that be a problem. With Von Miller out the Bills would be in trouble if Rousseau doesn't go as they would be extremely thin at the defensive ends. Looks like AJ Epenesa was a full participant so that's great.

I suspect Tre White sees a bit more time? Dane Jackson is a liability that might not get exposed this week but will eventually.


I would think the Patriot's game plan will be to slow it down and keep the ball away from Allen. No Harris is big as the Bills can key in on Stevenson. However, with this D banged up IDK if they can stop him consistently. I could see a ton of long drawn out drives for the Pats resulting in fg attempts.

My one fear in this game is Dawkins being out and the Bills o-line not having an answer for Judon.

He needs to be doubled. Every down.


Line & total dropping like a rock IDK why????

I have to believe despite the Bills not blowing teams out they will get heavy action. line down to 4 tt at 23.5. Looks so easy how do the Bills not score 3tds 1 fg? Only 3x all season did they not score 24+, they aren't just giving away free $$$ on public faves. I think this game might be an ugly one that the Bills win.

Best line I currently see is -195. I rarely play fave ML but I am considering this one.
 
I have been high on the 49ers and they are my NFC pick to go to the SB.

I think the Fins win this week. Big time misconception that the Fins are a finesse team I think they are still being undervalued. You can make the argument they haven't beat anyone but they have been winning pretty convincingly. 49ers been playing great but this is another offense completely.
 
Bills are extremely banged up ( this year's version of 2021 Ravens ) ...

Now the Flu is running rough shot through one Bills drive ...

Shocked that the total is so low for Pats v Bills ...
 
Lexington 125 said:
Pats are definitely a fraud but they still have a defense.

If the Bills were completely healthy I would be banging this game up to -9.5.

They aren't healthy.

Rousseau looks like he'll be back along with Edmunds. Both are huge & if for some reason they have a setback I think it could really be a problem.

Buffalo needs Edmunds as he is great in coverage- Noodle arm Mac will likely be looking to HUnter Henry & Edmunds won't let that be a problem. With Von Miller out the Bills would be in trouble if Rousseau doesn't go as they would be extremely thin at the defensive ends. Looks like AJ Epenesa was a full participant so that's great.

I suspect Tre White sees a bit more time? Dane Jackson is a liability that might not get exposed this week but will eventually.


I would think the Patriot's game plan will be to slow it down and keep the ball away from Allen. No Harris is big as the Bills can key in on Stevenson. However, with this D banged up IDK if they can stop him consistently. I could see a ton of long drawn out drives for the Pats resulting in fg attempts.

My one fear in this game is Dawkins being out and the Bills o-line not having an answer for Judon.

He needs to be doubled. Every down.


Line & total dropping like a rock IDK why????

I have to believe despite the Bills not blowing teams out they will get heavy action. line down to 4 tt at 23.5. Looks so easy how do the Bills not score 3tds 1 fg? Only 3x all season did they not score 24+, they aren't just giving away free $$$ on public faves. I think this game might be an ugly one that the Bills win.

Best line I currently see is -195. I rarely play fave ML but I am considering this one.
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Feel for Dane Jackson , amazed that he is even playing football again after that ugly injury earlier this season ...

Dude has the worst fundamentals I've ever seen when the ball is in the air ...It's like his neck is broken and he physically can't turn his around to look back for the ball ....
Wouldn't be shocked if old ass Xavier Rhodes takes his job soon
 
B.A.R. said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1597767205617287170
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League flexes out of the legendary Steelers facing the defending AFC champs, and then does the same with #1 player in the league. But the Cowboys, as the biggest favorites of the week, hosting a decrepit Matt Ryan Colts team, stays on the SNF schedule. Don't ever let anyone tell you the Boys are not the #1 draw in all of U.S. sports.
 
No one touched on the Steelers Vs ATL game?

Super interesting with ATL a lot to play for(crazy I know) and Steez have their QB it seems for now.
 
twinkie13 said:
No one touched on the Steelers Vs ATL game?

Super interesting with ATL a lot to play for(crazy I know) and Steez have their QB it seems for now.
Click to expand...
Also interesting is draft order. There’s like 10 teams with 4 wins right now. If any team wants to tank even a little bit, they could get in the top 5 instead of picking 15th.

Steelers aren’t making the playoffs. Would they ever tank a couple? We don’t know … Steelers have never NOT been in the playoff hunt!
 
Ok so no Dion Dawkins JA blindside open. Mitch Morse looks like he'll be back which is huge- something to look for if he reinjures his elbow or goes down the Bills are in TROUBLE.

Might have said this before but they will likely keep Knox back more than usual to block. You may see JA running for his life again tonight.... thinking rushing yds over could be in play though high.


People keep referring back to the previous two matchups where the Bills dominated- i think this is an entirely different situation. Those games were the Bills finally getting over the hump vs the Pats. They are now expected to to otr and win. Secondary still very much in flux.

One thing to note is how the Patriots have fared vs real #1 qbs. They've only faced a couple and lost to every one. Despite being down all these players and struggling at the wr position I STILL think the Bills could go out & hang 30 on the Pats. I just don't think it's a spot to go crazy.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Ok so no Dion Dawkins JA blindside open. Mitch Morse looks like he'll be back which is huge- something to look for if he reinjures his elbow or goes down the Bills are in TROUBLE.

Might have said this before but they will likely keep Knox back more than usual to block. You may see JA running for his life again tonight.... thinking rushing yds over could be in play though high.


People keep referring back to the previous two matchups where the Bills dominated- i think this is an entirely different situation. Those games were the Bills finally getting over the hump vs the Pats. They are now expected to to otr and win. Secondary still very much in flux.

One thing to note is how the Patriots have fared vs real #1 qbs. They've only faced a couple and lost to every one. Despite being down all these players and struggling at the wr position I STILL think the Bills could go out & hang 30 on the Pats. I just don't think it's a spot to go crazy.
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Spot on Brother ...
Like that ALLEN rushing totals over tonight , but imo the OVER 43.5 is the best play on the board...
Patriots defense looks like smoke and mirrors to me , they juiced up their stats vs struggling qbs , but got roasted vs the better ones ...Like Cousins who completed 81% of his passes last week.

GO BILLS !!!
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Spot on Brother ...
Like that ALLEN rushing totals over tonight , but imo the OVER 43.5 is the best play on the board...
Patriots defense looks like smoke and mirrors to me , they juiced up their stats vs struggling qbs , but got roasted vs the better ones ...Like Cousins who completed 81% of his passes last week.

GO BILLS !!!
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You're probably right, idk why it just looks too easy!
 
Lexington 125 said:
You're probably right, idk why it just looks too easy!
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Think it's a great spot for the BILLS who will finally have that us against the world mentality back for the first time since week 2 ....
No longer the chalk to win the AFC , Massive headline injuries to Milller and Dawkins ......

I think the BILLS ML and OVER 34.5 parlayed at -107 is the best bet tonight...( who knows though lol)
 
2daBank said:
I like Allen rush prop, pats play mostly man, you would think he breaks off a couple fairly long ones.
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That MAN coverage is why McKenzie thrived against the Pats the last 2 games....
New England is giving up a ridiculous 14.8 YPC to slot wrs this season .

Could see Allen running for 50+ , but I'm a little worried about that one
 
You can cap Bills games all you want but it’s all up to Allen who has been dogshit for a month now and has led some of the worst offense in the second half of games in the entire league. A bottom scoring unit second half of games last month and by far the worst turnovers.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
That MAN coverage is why McKenzie thrived against the Pats the last 2 games....
New England is giving up a ridiculous 14.8 YPC to slot wrs this season .

Could see Allen running for 50+ , but I'm a little worried about that one
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I played Allen ov 42.5 rush and got little of McKenzie ov 32.5 rec. just the fact they play mostly man and it being a big game I like my chances w Allen as when it important or they need it I feel like he pretty much a lock to go for 40+ on the ground. Hoody will prob do something to deter him but against man think he have a couple 20+ yarders. Pats pretty good agsinst conventional run games also so they might just need him to have a decent rushing attack. With you on McKenzie, 32.5 seems easily attainable. I took bills to win as well, injuries or not I really don’t buy the pats.
 
Home teams that have their bye the following week are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS.

Atlanta and Chicago are at home and have their byes next week.

Road teams before their bye are 6-5 SU and 7-4 ATS.

3 teams had their byes after a Euro game. 2-1 SU and ATS.
 
There just no way i can get behind the bears regardless of how bad packers been. Even w fields putting up numbers and scoring points they couldn’t win games, the defense is awful and now they have a stationary qb playing behind a pretty bad oline, I think it limits Montgomery and the other running backs effectiveness as well since teams don’t have to worry bout the qb in the run game. I’d think Jones/Dillan have big weeks running the ball.
 
Why would bills be interested in OBJ? I think he would mess up the chemistry they have with a really good cast of weapons.
 
Agree 100%. There aren’t enough balls to go around with the weapons they have currently and you throw that head case in the mix? no thanks
 
twinkie13 said:
No one touched on the Steelers Vs ATL game?

Super interesting with ATL a lot to play for(crazy I know) and Steez have their QB it seems for now.
Click to expand...
Great and interesting game. Pitt moving to a small fav also interesting. Pitt showing new life now that Watt back. Kenny fucking sucks, but I have ATL way better than the record or power ratings say. Steelers running game this week? Man Atlanta as a short dog at home looks sexy.
 
2daBank said:
Why would bills be interested in OBJ? I think he would mess up the chemistry they have with a really good cast of weapons.
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They are crazy thin at wr. Gabe Davis runs 3 routes & McKenzie is undersized. If one of them goes down there's nobody behind them. They signed John Brown back off the streets and dressed him last night! They would only have been able to start 4 wrs without dressing him, that is crazy.

While I don't think the Bills HAVE to have OBJ to make their playoff run I do think it would be a great addition.
 
One thing I absolutely loved about the Bills game plan was getting the ball to the rbs. 10 total targets to rbs out of the backfield with Cook getting 6 for 41 in the passing game. They need to keep doing that to open up the chunk plays.
 
I'm looking at the Texans+7 & ML

The Browns have won 1 road game all season- a 2 pt win @Carolina week 1. Texans off getting blown out & the Browns off a home win vs TB sets this up quite nicely, with Watson inflation being the cherry on top. Unless Watson suits up on defense & can stop the run I think this will be closely played. Pierce prop worth a look as well.
 
2daBank said:
There just no way i can get behind the bears regardless of how bad packers been. Even w fields putting up numbers and scoring points they couldn’t win games, the defense is awful and now they have a stationary qb playing behind a pretty bad oline, I think it limits Montgomery and the other running backs effectiveness as well since teams don’t have to worry bout the qb in the run game. I’d think Jones/Dillan have big weeks running the ball.
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Sounds like fields is playing. That makes bears pretty tempting, will he run less? Hurts had 100 yards on the ground in the 1st qrtr vs this packers d!
 
I keep looking at this Titans/Eagles matchup. So far only have Titans ML/Bills ML parlay

I would think most are expecting the Titans to come out & pound the run with a ton of ball control. They might settle into that, but looking at their road games played they love to start off passing to set up the run. 5 passes opening drive vs GB resulting in a td. Even with Willis vs KC 3 passes (huge play 40+ yds called back too). Wouldn't be surprised to see them take a shot off play action out of the gate. Henry is gonna get his regardless, could come later on or early but I think this is a game he puts up 2tds & a dumb stat line.

Eagles off a high scoring one where Hurts designed runs just obliterated the GB D. I can't see that happening here with the Titans at all. But.....

the Titans can be has through the air. I think they have had the benefit of playing some soft offenses. Despite how low scoring the Tenn/KC game was Mahomes threw all over them. Good wrs vs Titans

Diggs- 12-148 3tds (yikes)

Davante Adames 10 targets 5-36- 1 td (ok not bad)

McLaurin 6 targets 5-76 (dyami had 2-105-2tds) (bad)

Kelce 17 targets 10-106
juju 12 targets 10-88
Hardman 9t 6-79-1

Higgins 9t 7-114-1


Now we have AJ brown coming off a 5 target game vs the team that let him go? If there's a bigger motivational edge for an individual this week lmk. Haven't looked at props yet but yds over gotta be high & will prob cash. Eagles may establish the run & may have some designed runs for Hurts, but I think they know where the weakness is. NO WAY would i play an under here. Absolutely no way.

I'm seeing 44 & while it could be a game where a quarter goes by with only 7pts I think there will be an offensive explosion at some point-a 21+ pt quarter could very well be likely even if the defenses are playing decent.

I'm leaning over as a potentially big play and think both tt could cash. OBV I like the Titans o19.5 more because it's lower. Might be a good game to look at live if someone goes up 10+.
 
2daBank said:
Sounds like fields is playing. That makes bears pretty tempting, will he run less? Hurts had 100 yards on the ground in the 1st qrtr vs this packers d!
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I thought so at first glance but GB is 7-0 SU and ATS the L7 meetings winning by an avg of more than 13 ppg.
 
Potential big play for me on Fins tt o20.5.

I just don't see it, even if they get dominated they aren't scoring 21?

Unless Tua gets knocked out I think the Dolphins are very competitive in this one, wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win convincingly. I know SF only has allowed 9 passing tds, but look at who they played. Don't forget what Mahomes was able to do to them tds every quarter. Waddle, Hill both live props. Jimmy G 4 straight no picks due for a bad one I could see the Fins getting to him & picking him off.

This and the Titans games are going to show you quite a bit about these 4 teams.
 
C-MAN said:
I thought so at first glance but GB is 7-0 SU and ATS the L7 meetings winning by an avg of more than 13 ppg.
Click to expand...

I know they own the bears. I’m probably just staying away even tho it pretty hard to see packers as -4.5 favs on the road, they not a good team.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Potential big play for me on Fins tt o20.5.

I just don't see it, even if they get dominated they aren't scoring 21?

Unless Tua gets knocked out I think the Dolphins are very competitive in this one, wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win convincingly. I know SF only has allowed 9 passing tds, but look at who they played. Don't forget what Mahomes was able to do to them tds every quarter. Waddle, Hill both live props. Jimmy G 4 straight no picks due for a bad one I could see the Fins getting to him & picking him off.

This and the Titans games are going to show you quite a bit about these 4 teams.
Click to expand...

I think Jimmy g has a big day, don’t think fish can deal w kittle, Aiyuk, debo in the passing game. My concern for fish is I dunno if they can protect Tua? I’d think niners will be all over those wrs close to the Los and hope to get pressure to negate anything over the top. I thought about over in this game and kinda lean that way but I’m little worried both coaches know each other’s offense really well, I’d think both defenses gonna be super prepared for what both do best.
 
McDaniel and shanny were around each other for a long time. Houston was all over Tua after fish tackle went out last week to the point they took Tua out the game to protect him, armstead not playing today, niners front dwarfs the Texans. I know Tua gets the ball out fast but so do niners which leads me to believe they gonna be up close disrupting routes, I think they can get away w that cause Tua gomna have to get it out fast.
 
2daBank said:
McDaniel and shanny were around each other for a long time. Houston was all over Tua after fish tackle went out last week to the point they took Tua out the game to protect him, armstead not playing today, niners front dwarfs the Texans. I know Tua gets the ball out fast but so do niners which leads me to believe they gonna be up close disrupting routes, I think they can get away w that cause Tua gomna have to get it out fast.
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That is the one concern for me but it was an ingame injury & with a week's worth of preparation I think the oline won't be getting destroyed. Miami might very well play ball control just to keep the defense fresh- they still have to score to win. I tend to think SF won't have answers for Tua but I guess we'll see.

SF coming off b2b DD wins and only favored by 4.5. To me it's a bad spot for them.

49ers have faced one elite passing offense in KC

Mahomes

just to JuJu & MvS

12 targets 10 catches 235 yds 1 td.

Oh and Kelce had 6-98 as well.

What is Tyreek & Waddle gonna do? Sherfield as a third good for one long play a game- I mean how does he NOT get open in defensive schemes with those 2 alongside him?
 
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