Week 12 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Last week ended up at 8-6-1, which runs the season total to 80-65 plus a few pushes. (.5517). At least I'm still up a few for the year, so we haven't gotten into the red just yet. There were a couple bad beats but also a couple very fortunate late TDs, so I'm not gonna complain, and nobody cares anyway.


PLEASE AVERT YOUR EYES

Air Force -1 WIN
BC -2 LOSS-Kudos to FSU.
Rutgers +18 LOSS -The Rutgers road mystique is vanquished
Wake +4 LOSS-MW correct
Iowa State +3.5 LOSS-Please warn me if I indicate betting on Brock Purdy ever again
SMU +11 LOSS
Minnesota -7 WIN
Michigan -15 WIN
Syracuse +11.5 LOSS
UCLA -3.5 WIN
Washington -6.5 LOSS- Only Washington could have a 428-183 yard edge and lose outright
Cal -2 WIN
Kansas State -2.5 LOSS
Virginia Tech +7 LOSS
Oregon +3.5 LOSS

5-10 (ouch)


Lots of fun games to watch this week, but the lines still seem pretty tight to me. We'll give it a go, though I must declare the following disclaimer: WARNING!! WEEKNIGHT GAME.


1. Air Force -1 @Nevada: Although Air Force cost me a couple weeks ago against Army, this is a good spot for them. They have been money on the road, sweeping all 4 games ATS, and they still have a shot to catch Utah State to get in the MW title game, so motivation won't be a problem for them(as if it ever is with a service academy) Although Nevada hasn't lost at home this year, they haven't played anyone either, beating Hawaii, San Jose State(by 3) and UNLV in conference. Nevada's defense has been sketchy this year, ranking in the high 80's in yards per play and about the same area in efficiency stats. They've also struggled to stop the run (insert Service Academy cliché about run offense here). I'm not going to complicate things here. I'm always interested in backing an efficient Air Force offense while in their element against a defense they match up well against.
 
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2. @Boston College -2 v Florida State: When you take a look at this game on paper, you can understand why the line is where it is, and you could actually understand if the oddsmakers made Florida State the favorite in this game based on the year-long results of both of these teams. Offensively, FSU looks to have the edge against the BC defense, but I absolutely hate this spot for the Seminoles. First, it's a terrible sandwich spot between 2 rivalry games, and they're coming off an emotional rollercoaster of blowing a big lead against Miami only to deliver a clutch TD drive to win. Next week is Florida, and this week they travel to Chestnut Hill, where it's going to be colder at game time than most of the Seminoles have ever played in in their lives, probably by a long shot. I can't imagine FSU cares even remotely close to as much as they care about the Florida or Miami games. Also, BC has a new lease on life now that QB Phil Jurkovec is back. The difference between Jurkovec and Dennis Grosel behind center is absolutely night and day. Jurkovec is averaging 12.2 yards per attempt, almost double what Grosel was averaging during the 7 games he was in there. BC has rolled in their two games with Jurkovec and if they catch FSU at anything less than a 100% effort(which I think is highly likely), I don't think the game will be close.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Boston College -2 v Florida State: When you take a look at this game on paper, you can understand why the line is where it is, and you could actually understand if the oddsmakers made Florida State the favorite in this game based on the year-long results of both of these teams. Offensively, FSU looks to have the edge against the BC defense, but I absolutely hate this spot for the Seminoles. First, it's a terrible sandwich spot between 2 rivalry games, and they're coming off an emotional rollercoaster of blowing a big lead against Miami only to deliver a clutch TD drive to win. Next week is Florida, and this week they travel to Chestnut Hill, where it's going to be colder at game time than most of the Seminoles have ever played in in their lives, probably by a long shot. I can't imagine FSU cares even remotely close to as much as they care about the Florida or Miami games. Also, BC has a new lease on life now that QB Phil Jurkovec is back. The difference between Jurkovec and Dennis Grosel behind center is absolutely night and day. Jurkovec is averaging 12.2 yards per attempt, almost double what Grosel was averaging during the 7 games he was in there. BC has rolled in their two games with Jurkovec and if they catch FSU at anything less than a 100% effort(which I think is highly likely), I don't think the game will be close.
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We need this win...
 
3. Rutgers +18 @Penn State: I'm guessing that I've become pretty predictable in this spot. To repeat: Play on Rutgers when they are on the road in conference (now 7-1 under Schiano) and against them when they are at home (Now 1-7 in conference under Schiano). Last week, they covered by 42 points as they blew out Indiana in Bloomington as 7 point dogs, and now they are getting 18 at Penn State, who already lost outright at home as a 24 point favorite to Illinois 3 weeks ago. I should also point out that Penn State is 6-20-2 ATS under Franklin when coming off a loss, so we have quite a situational trend smorgasbord here. We should also remember that Penn State's offense ranks 109th in yards per play, 119th in yards per carry and 105th in yards per pass attempt. Rutgers has struggled against explosive offenses, but Penn State is anything but that, and needs to grind out drives to be effective offensively. That's not a good recipe here because Rutgers is actually 4th in the country defensively on 3rd down, as Schiano definitely knows how to scheme up in close situations. I'll be really surprised if Penn State lays the wood to the Knights in this spot.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. Rutgers +18 @Penn State: I'm guessing that I've become pretty predictable in this spot. To repeat: Play on Rutgers when they are on the road in conference (now 7-1 under Schiano) and against them when they are at home (Now 1-7 in conference under Schiano). Last week, they covered by 42 points as they blew out Indiana in Bloomington as 7 point dogs, and now they are getting 18 at Penn State, who already lost outright at home as a 24 point favorite to Illinois 3 weeks ago. I should also point out that Penn State is 6-20-2 ATS under Franklin when coming off a loss, so we have quite a situational trend smorgasbord here. We should also remember that Penn State's offense ranks 109th in yards per play, 119th in yards per carry and 105th in yards per pass attempt. Rutgers has struggled against explosive offenses, but Penn State is anything but that, and needs to grind out drives to be effective offensively. That's not a good recipe here because Rutgers is actually 4th in the country defensively on 3rd down, as Schiano definitely knows how to scheme up in close situations. I'll be really surprised if Penn State lays the wood to the Knights in this spot.
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Ha! "...quite a situational trend smorgasbord here," Excellent wordsmithing, Br@ss.
 
4. Wake Forest +4 @Clemson: Wake has not been kind to me this year, but I'm going to ride them here. I believe this will be a scenario where Clemson is not going to be able to hang with Wake on the scoreboard. The Deacs have consistently scored on everyone this year, piling up at least 35 points in every game they've played. Prior to last week, although nobody can seriously question that their offense was good, the best defenses they had played were probably Syracuse and Florida State.Last week however, they played an obviously legitimate defense in NC State and put up 45 points on them too. Clemson certainly has a good defense, but I don't think they'll be in a position to shut down this deacon offense, given he level of success they've had this year. Defensively, Wake has been poor, and that's why this line is where it is, but Clemson's offense continues to prove that it can't even be characterized as adequate. In last week's game against UCONN, Clemson didn't play Will Shipley and other skill guys, but DJ Uiageleilei played and they averaged 4.4 yards per play on 99 total plays. IN previous home games, they scored only 14 and 19 points against below average ACC defenses in Georgia Tech and Boston College. Wake is also below average, but they'll have to put up a heck of a lot more than 19 to cover this game. WR Justyn Ross is out this week for Clemson, so that further limits the Clemson offense as one of it's top playmakers is unavailable. Ultimately, if Wake plays their game, they should score enough to win, and even if they don't the backdoor will likely be wide open. I don't see Clemson being able to move this game above a score.
 
5. Iowa State +3.5 @Oklahoma: In previous years I would need at least 7.5 or 8 to consider a Iowa State ticket in Norman, but in this case, more than a FG suffices since I think Iowa State might be the better bet outright here. Iowa State has spent the better part of the year saddled with laying at least a TD in most of their games, and I got snookered into backing them last week. They've been an awful favorite this year and especially recently, as they got knocked off outright as a 10 and 7 point favorite by Texas Tech and West Virginia recently. Now they settle into the underdog role for the first time this year, against an Oklahoma team that just got handled by a similar version of he Cyclones last week. My primary beef with the Caleb Wiliams led Sooners was that they had only played terrible defenses since Williams took the helm. Baylor represented the first good defense the Sooners had played and they got dominated by them. Now Iowa State comes in with a defense in the same neighborhood as the Bears and with an offense that can and has given Oklahoma fits in the past. The Cyclones would like nothing better than to salvage the season with a big upset victory here, and don't forget how incensed Matt Campbell got when the Sooners knocked off Iowa State last year. Baylor piled up the rushing yards last week, and Breece Hall has the ability to do the same thing to them, opening up play action to be effective. I like Iowa State to win this one...things seem a bit amiss in Norman, and on paper, it looks to me like the Cyclones have the edge in most areas on both sides of the ball.
 
6. SMU +11 Cincinnati: I have a feeling that it's only a matter of time until Cincy takes a loss, and it seems like SMU is probably the best candidate to pull it off. If you take a close look at the Bearcats season, I think you can make a strong case that they were better last year. They have some very good players, Ridder included, but they keep struggling with mediocre competition. Even on their wins against Indiana and Notre Dame, neither had their QBs healthy, meaning Cincy had the good fortune of getting to face Tyler Buchner and Drew Pine, both of whom were not a threatthrowing the ball, and Buchner handed he Bearcats a pick 6 late in the first half of their of their game. The other offenses Cincy has played?: Temple, Tulane, Tulsa,, a Dylan Gabriel-less UCF offense and USF. SMU will represent the best offense they've played by far, and the SMU defense is not worse than any of the outfits that have been able to hold down the Cincy offense enough to cover. I think Tyler Mordecai is good enough to put up points on just about anyone.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Wake Forest +4 @Clemson: Wake has not been kind to me this year, but I'm going to ride them here. I believe this will be a scenario where Clemson is not going to be able to hang with Wake on the scoreboard. The Deacs have consistently scored on everyone this year, piling up at least 35 points in every game they've played. Prior to last week, although nobody can seriously question that their offense was good, the best defenses they had played were probably Syracuse and Florida State.Last week however, they played an obviously legitimate defense in NC State and put up 45 points on them too. Clemson certainly has a good defense, but I don't think they'll be in a position to shut down this deacon offense, given he level of success they've had this year. Defensively, Wake has been poor, and that's why this line is where it is, but Clemson's offense continues to prove that it can't even be characterized as adequate. In last week's game against UCONN, Clemson didn't play Will Shipley and other skill guys, but DJ Uiageleilei played and they averaged 4.4 yards per play on 99 total plays. IN previous home games, they scored only 14 and 19 points against below average ACC defenses in Georgia Tech and Boston College. Wake is also below average, but they'll have to put up a heck of a lot more than 19 to cover this game. WR Justyn Ross is out this week for Clemson, so that further limits the Clemson offense as one of it's top playmakers is unavailable. Ultimately, if Wake plays their game, they should score enough to win, and even if they don't the backdoor will likely be wide open. I don't see Clemson being able to move this game above a score.
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well the good news is this the only one we disagree on, lol, actually love the rest your card (didnt play the af/nev game),, the reason i didnt play ncst last week is cause their coaching staff a bunch of nitwits and i couldnt trust them to play the way they should have played, of course they proved me right not to cause those buffoons tried to shoot it out with wake instead of pound those 2 stud backs vs wake terrible run d. I think this finally be the week where a coaching staff wont get suckered into playing the game to wakes liking. I expect clemson is gonna just bludgeon them with shipley and dj in the run game, i see them finally being the team smart enough to realize just because you can do whatever you want to wf d that doesnt mean you should score as much and quickly as possible, the smart thing to do would be use the fact their d cant stop a nose bleed to control the game with your offense and go on some long time consuming drives, make this thing a 10-11 possession type game so your very good defense can cause Hartman problems and he doesnt have enough plays to figure it out!! hidden behind all those points wake been scoring Hartman hasnt been good the last few weeks completing less than 50% his passes and with 5 picks! Now he facing by far the most talented and easily the best coached defense he will see all year and i dont think he gonna have the ball a ton to figure them out either. I could be crazy and this yet another wake shootout in which case you will be right to take the points and this will all look silly!! luckily it wouldnt be the 1st time i been dead wrong so ill get over it, lmao. anyways if im wrong always happy to know some you other guys cashing! i gotta roll with clemson here, really hoping they give me a Shipley rushing yards prop but ive yet to see one up to this point. anyways health on this one and hope you sweep rest the card!!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Wake Forest +4 @Clemson: Wake has not been kind to me this year, but I'm going to ride them here. I believe this will be a scenario where Clemson is not going to be able to hang with Wake on the scoreboard. The Deacs have consistently scored on everyone this year, piling up at least 35 points in every game they've played.
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Why do you expect Wake to score much? Over the last four years, Clemson has held Wake to an average of 8.2 points per game, 28.5 points less than their other opponents have. And this year's Clemson D is much better than the Clemson D that held Wake to 105 yards and three points two years ago in Death Valley. Yes, the Wake O is better, but not that much.
 
M.W. said:
Why do you expect Wake to score much? Over the last four years, Clemson has held Wake to an average of 8.2 points per game, 28.5 points less than their other opponents have. And this year's Clemson D is much better than the Clemson D that held Wake to 105 yards and three points two years ago in Death Valley. Yes, the Wake O is better, but not that much.
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I will mention that Newman started that game in 2019 after Hartman started the 2018 game. Don't ask me to explain what was going through Clawson's head with that decision.
 
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M.W. said:
Why do you expect Wake to score much? Over the last four years, Clemson has held Wake to an average of 8.2 points per game, 28.5 points less than their other opponents have. And this year's Clemson D is much better than the Clemson D that held Wake to 105 yards and three points two years ago in Death Valley. Yes, the Wake O is better, but not that much.
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It's a good question because you probably can tell that I do pay close attention to trends, and there's no doubt that Clemson has dominated this series, but from the jump, this Clemson team has seemed like a total anomaly, or departure from what Clemson has been in the past. At least their offense has. For that reason I haven't really paid much attention to situational trends. I can see that Wake could have their worst offensive game of the year against this defense, but even then it seems logical that the Clemson offense isn't capable of pulling away from a team that's proven to be resourceful all year. I've been wrong a lot on these two teams this year, but I do not expect Wake to get completely shut down. If they score 24, that would be their worst performance of the season by a mile, but I would still think they'd have a good shot at being in a position to cover 4.
 
7. Minnesota -7(-115) @ Indiana: Sometimes, even if the talent on a team is pretty solid, the weight and momentum of a season gone wrong just crushes a team's psyche like an avalanche. That's pretty much what has happened to Indiana this year. There was noise in this preseason that this might be one of the top 2 or 3 team in Indiana's history, and here they sit at 2-8, coming off 2 completely non-competitive efforts, most alarmingly the blitzkrieg put on them by Rutgers in which they missed the cover by 42 points. They are obviously just playing out the string now and nothing much works for them regardless of what QB they trot out there. They'll probably play freshman Donovan McCauley, who has actually been the best of their 3. If the Hoosiers were facing a bad team on the road who didn't much care about the game, they might have a chance to cover, but not against an engaged team with a lot to play for like Minnesota. The Gophers defense also presents a ton of problems for Indiana, and Minnesota's plan to just bludgeon the opposition is exactly the kind of game plan that a dead in the water team like IU doesn't want to see. The Hoosiers also find themselves in their worst situational spot, as a home dog. They're 3-10 in that role since 2017. I really can't come up with any logical scenario where it makes sense to back this Indiana team right now. Perhaps next week in their rivalry game with Purdue if they're getting a bunch of points, but not in any other scenario.
 
Glad to see I already bet most of these earlier.

Thanks for your insight and good luck today Brass.

:cheers3:
 
I just noticed minny late last night and added to card instantly, lol. Glad to see you like it also cause it almost felt too easy!!
 
lol, I texted joco at 2 am last night is when I noticed Minny for the first time after reviewing all the injuries and realizing Indiana on their 3rd stringer most likely too......I locked in too with my bookie but waiting for it to drop on pickmonitor to 7 :-( . Nice stuff fella's I would love to see the #'s on the season when all 3 of us agree but I can tell you it's gotta be atleast 60%. BOL This week BRASS! Iowa State scares me but I leaned heavily on them but going to lay off.
 
8. Michigan -15 @Maryland: I hemmed and hawed on this one for awhile because I can see a scenario where Michigan screws around and allows a cover, but there's too much pointing in their direction in this one. First of all, from a technical standpoint, this one is a clean sweep for me when I match up the units between these teams. Michigan should dominate the line of scrimmage here and there's little indication that Maryland's defense(which FootballOutsiders has in the 100's) can handle this offense. Also, on the other side of the ball, Michigan has the edge everywhere, from the run game, to 3rd down to turnovers...everything. In addition to all of that, we are on the back side of the annual Maryland swoon, where they have their hearts ripped out early in the conference season (this year it happened on a Friday night against Iowa) and then fail to cover the remainder of their conference slate until they either face the league patsy or Rutgers in the finale. This year they couldn't even do that, as Indiana came in three weeks ago and back doored them, so they are on a predictable 0-5 ATS run. Overall in conference, they are 15-33 since 2017, so it's not a surprise, but they're even worse than that when hey get on these swoons. When you look at their previous results, games like this usually end up in the 47-10 range, and this one is shaping up to look pretty similar in my opinion. It's the old adage of "Lessons from the past can teach us a lot about the future."
 
KJ said:
Be shocked if either defense does a damn thing in Columbia
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I agree I just felt dirty anytime I even thought bout writing down as a play! Lol. I mean it should be total shootout where winner has to score 40+ but would it be shocking if this week these non existent defenses played better and the offenses were sloppy, not finishing drives, turning it over? I don’t think it likely but who knows what ya get with teams like this?
 
2daBank said:
I agree I just felt dirty anytime I even thought bout writing down as a play! Lol. I mean it should be total shootout where winner has to score 40+ but would it be shocking if this week these non existent defenses played better and the offenses were sloppy, not finishing drives, turning it over? I don’t think it likely but who knows what ya get with teams like this?
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In general, not just FB but all sports, I love overs when two poor teams play. Like consolation games, seems like offense licks their chops at putting up some stats. No way I could lay off over in this one, what are either of them actually playing for? Probably should take the points too.
 
KJ said:
In general, not just FB but all sports, I love overs when two poor teams play. Like consolation games, seems like offense licks their chops at putting up some stats. No way I could lay off over in this one, what are either of them actually playing for? Probably should take the points too.
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i dont disagree at all, just couldnt bring myself to get involved, mizzou still playing for a bowl which i would think important to drink in his rebuild.
 
9. Syracuse +11.5 (-115) @NC State: Every once in awhile, you run across a week when a team gets caught in an outlier game, and that's what happened to Syracuse last week when they raveled to Louisville. They were dead from jump street and the Cards laid it on them, easily Syracuse's worst performance of the year. It was only the second non cover of the year for the Orange as they have been money in that 3-8 range as a dog. Prior to last week, they probably would have been in the upper reaches of that point spread area in a lookahead line, but now the line has blown through 10. Syracuse remains a team built to cover spreads like this, due to their solid defense and very strong running game, they can hang around and maybe even beat teams that are prone to lose(VT for example) but they can definitely hang in games against non elite teams. I think we have value here because although NC State has a legit defense, they are just mediocre offensively, and at 7-3, their cake is pretty much baked as far as bowl position leading into a big rivalry game with North Carolina next week. In order to cover this they'll have to score, and on paper Syracuse has the advantage on that side of the ball. I expect a bounce back from Syracuse after that performance last week to a level that they've established over the course of the year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
That MIzzou defense can't tackle. Florida might run for 350+ in that one. Mizzou might run for 275 though. No play for me but I wouldn't be shocked if Florida wins in a 54-38 type game.
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one defense appears to have quit (gators) the other tries but just not capable!! should be a crazy game, lol.
 
10. UCLA -3.5 @USC: This is one of the most annoying weeks that I can remember, because this is yet another game that every Tom, Dick and Harry will see value in, but I really can't pass it up. UCLA is always motivated to play USC, but that's especially true this year as they remember the debacle of last year where they dominated the Trojans with a 550 yard effort on offense only to find a way to shit the bed and cough up the victory in the 4th quarter. There's no reason to expect them to not move the ball at will on the Trojans again this year, as USC ranks 102nd in yards per play, 98th against the run and 102nd in yards per pass attempt against. They've also been totally dominated by 3 of the 4 conference foes they've played in the Coliseum, and the other, Arizona, racked up their best offensive performance by far in an easy cover for the Wildcats. Jaxson Dart will get the start for the Trojans, but he won't have Drake London to throw to here, so I don't see how USC is going to trade scores with the Bruins offense. UCLA has the edge in the trenches and will have to motivation to take care of business here. Again, I'm aware im just following the herd here, but other than a straight contrarian position, there's no logical case to make for USC here, especially without their best player(by a mile).
 
we're on the same side in pretty much every single game this week. not sure if that bodes well for you haha. good luck and thanks as always for sharing your thoughts..
 
11. Washington -6.5 @Colorado: This is one that I haven't seen many people on for once. I might need to have my head examined for laying points with any offense quarterbacked by Dylan Morris, but this matchup shapes up very well for Washington in my opinion. Psychologically, the jettisoning of Jimmy Lake can only help the Huskies as all indications were that he was extremely unpopular with the players. DC Bob Gregory has take over, and his defense is the source of any success the Huskies have had. One thing you can count on with this Washington defense is that they will make it difficult on opposing passing games. They have been almost impossible to throw the ball on, although teams have had success running it on them. Colorado does not figure to be one of those teams, as they are among one of the most putrid offenses in the country. Washington can stck the box knowing that the Buffs can't throw on them, and the Huskies are good at turning over opposing offenses, leading to short fields, which this Husky offense definitely needs. Having said that, if there's a defense that Washington might have success against, it's probably this one, as they rank 116th against the run themselves and have no ability to pressure the quarterback. Washington has also played it's best football on the road this year, and the combination of that, a new lease on life with the elimination of Lake and a defense that they can have some success against makes me think they have a nice day in Boulder.
 
lol,, you def found one not many are talking bout!! agree you gotta be loony tunes to lay points with udub!! lol.. maybe they be better with lake gone? both teams suck and those are kinda tough as who knows which team playing and which has after the game parties and pussy on the mind?
 
12. @Kansas State -2.5 v Baylor: I think everyone knows that I love Baylor and their coaching staff as much as anyone. I've cashed a ton of tickets on them this year, ut this is a terrible spot for them. They were the apple of the college football world's eye last week after the win and awesome late FG to rub it in Lincoln Riley's face, but now they have to go on the road and strap it on against an extremely well coached and resourceful Kansas State team. All of my success with Baylor has been when they are at home, and they've proven that they are a totally different team on the road, having been mostly non competitive in the Oklahoma State game, and then losing outright against a TCU team that appeared to have packed it in for the year. They gave up 400+ yards passing to TCU's backups for the most part that week, and now they face a K State offense that ranks as high as 20th in FEI and surprisingly can be effective running or passing, as the Wildcats are ranked 18th in the country in yards per pass attempt. You can throw on K State, but Baylor's MO is running the ball and they might find that to be tough sledding in Manhattan. Most people look at this line and do a double take, but I think the right team is favored here. We lost some value in the past hour or so, but I think K State
 
13. Cal -2 @Stanford: How can anyone who has watched Stanford play the past couple of weeks not fade them here? I know McKee is back, but their defense is a complete mess an they've been an ATS nightmare other than the Oregon game this year and really over the last few years. They are 7-14 in their last 21 conference games ATS, they're 5-13 in their last 18 as a dog and 3-10 coming off a loss. Cal has been galvanized by all the nonsense that they've had to endure with COVID protocols that no other team is subject to and they are in their comfort zone on the road. If I lose this I'll tip my cap because there's too much to ignore working against Stanford here. No need to make this too complicated.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. @Kansas State -2.5 v Baylor: I think everyone knows that I love Baylor and their coaching staff as much as anyone. I've cashed a ton of tickets on them this year, ut this is a terrible spot for them. They were the apple of the college football world's eye last week after the win and awesome late FG to rub it in Lincoln Riley's face, but now they have to go on the road and strap it on against an extremely well coached and resourceful Kansas State team. All of my success with Baylor has been when they are at home, and they've proven that they are a totally different team on the road, having been mostly non competitive in the Oklahoma State game, and then losing outright against a TCU team that appeared to have packed it in for the year. They gave up 400+ yards passing to TCU's backups for the most part that week, and now they face a K State offense that ranks as high as 20th in FEI and surprisingly can be effective running or passing, as the Wildcats are ranked 18th in the country in yards per pass attempt. You can throw on K State, but Baylor's MO is running the ball and they might find that to be tough sledding in Manhattan. Most people look at this line and do a double take, but I think the right team is favored here. We lost some value in the past hour or so, but I think K State
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i been waiting for you guys who actually good with Bears (unlike me) to see if i was right to want to fade them! lol.. still not sure how good baylor is? kinda feel like last week was just as much a indictment on sooners as it was saying anything great bout Bears, clearly baylor hc has the script to shut down lincoln riley offense as he has done it several times going back to playoffs when he was dc for lsu!! my only concern here is k-st has allowed a redic completion percentage, it has gotten better of late but it still not good, dunno if Bohannen can take adv or not tho? i expect he will have to cause k-st will take the run game away.
 
14. Virginia Tech +7 Miami: This is obviously the right spot to fade Miami, as they've been a terrible favorite since Diaz has gotten there (8-16). I also think the timing is good for Virginia Tech here, as they are probably looking at getting a dead cat bounce off the Justin Fuente firing, another coach that appeared to have very little popularity with his players. Statistically, these two teams are very similar but I see a pretty significant edge in favor of the Hokie defense on 3rd down and in the passing game. Ultimately, this just look like a matchup of two similar teams, but one of them is getting 7 points and has some motivational juice.
 
15. Oregon +3.5 @ Utah: Not a ton of analysis here, I'm just going to take the value of the FG+ with a resourceful team like Oregon who tends to play big in big games and adapts well to the competition. These two squads are very similar, both are capable throwing the ball but would rather run, adn they're both great at it. I give Oregon the edge in run defense however, as the Utes come in ranked 63rd while the Ducks have shut down just about every run game they've faced. I also can't seem to erase that memory of what happened to the Utes the last time they faced the Ducks in a big game (2019 Pac 12 title game). Basically we have 2 evenly matched teams, I'm just much more comfortable taking the 3.5 in a 50/50 game.
 
DapperDan said:
lol, I texted joco at 2 am last night is when I noticed Minny for the first time after reviewing all the injuries and realizing Indiana on their 3rd stringer most likely too......I locked in too with my bookie but waiting for it to drop on pickmonitor to 7 :-( . Nice stuff fella's I would love to see the #'s on the season when all 3 of us agree but I can tell you it's gotta be atleast 60%. BOL This week BRASS! Iowa State scares me but I leaned heavily on them but going to lay off.
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He did text me and I didn’t play it :(
 
Joco said:
He did text me and I didn’t play it :(
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that crazy,, i didnt notice minny till late last night either, after i finally did dunno how i didnt sooner, i did play them tho :),, of course i talked myself into cuse around the same time last night, ill blame sleep deprivation for backing a qb who cant fucking throw!
 
Just a terrible week again, 5-10. The worst part was that after I wrote up the Oregon game, I noticed I had 15 so I said "screw it, that's too many" and didn't even post the late night card which naturally included Oregon State, Oklahoma State and Wyoming. Every week I have about 20-22 games that I like. 5 or 6 of them are going in regardless and then a pick and choose the rest. Some weeks I get lucky and pick the right ones, and some weeks I don't. This week teams like Syracuse, Washington, Va Tech and SMU were the wrong choices, obviously.

After weeks like this(again) we have to just take our medicine and do it again next week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for saying that HUNT but 5-10 makes them few and far between.
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I know your true ability as a capper. People who put the dedication in like yourself always win in the end.

Just out of curiosity, do you flat bet the same units each game?
 
splinter65 said:
Amen to that. My favorite thread every week. And I really look hard when I am on the opposite side, which has saved me more than once!!
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Right. Just some great discussion in here per usual. Brass is also nice enough to try to respond to most people too.
 
HUNT said:
I know your true ability as a capper. People who put the dedication in like yourself always win in the end.

Just out of curiosity, do you flat bet the same units each game?
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Almost always, but sometimes I'll add a little or add a ML bet on a dog I like. Believe it or not I pretty much broke even this week because my 2 unit games were the 3 Big Ten games, and pretty much every bet that I didn't write up won (Okie State, Wyoming, Oregon State, Tulane, Old Dom, etc). Had lots of plays, but I just felt writing up more than 15 was overkill.

Thanks as always for the kind words HUNT. Back at it this week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Almost always, but sometimes I'll add a little or add a ML bet on a dog I like. Believe it or not I pretty much broke even this week because my 2 unit games were the 3 Big Ten games, and pretty much every bet that I didn't write up won (Okie State, Wyoming, Oregon State, Tulane, Old Dom, etc). Had lots of plays, but I just felt writing up more than 15 was overkill.

Thanks as always for the kind words HUNT. Back at it this week.
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Great stuff brass. Good to hear you broke even in the end. At the end of the day wins and losses don't matter, it's the units.
 
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