Week 12 Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, I was lucky enough to get some handicapping done early this week, so we'll take another stab at it this week. 9-5 last week. Nothing earth shattering but a positive week nonetheless.

A couple things before I get started:

I'm biased on this opinion because I'm primarily a dog player and have lost a ton of overtime games, but shouldn't college football sides be decided at the end of regulation? I say this because point spreads are based on the usual rules of scrimmage. Once overtime begins, the rules change. We are now playing a different game, with limited possible outcomes(7, 6 or 3 point outcomes usually). In basketball, I can understand going through the game's end because they are playing the same game as they were in regulation. Money lines can play out, but dammit, the spread bets should be graded at the end of regulation. (Can you tell I had a small wager on North Carolina?)

Can anyone tell me why Ryan Day didn't just send Justin Fields on a week's vacation this week and play whoever their backup is? They are a playoff team at this point...the only thing that can reasonably derail them is a QB injury. Why not just prepare for it now, against a team that should be in the American? The backup gets all the reps in practice all week and the team rallies around him, just like they would if Fields actually did get hurt. Then if the worst case scenario happens, at least they can draw on the experience and maybe be able to have a fighting chance. If they don't get him reps now, they'll be 100% dead if Fields tears an ACL or something. If they give the backup a week this week, that death rate might drop down to 80% or so. Even if they give him three quarters this week, it still wouldn't be as meaningful as him getting all the practice reps and leading the team from the get go. Just my opinion.


1. Kansas +17 @ Oklahoma State: I liked this even better earlier this week at 18.5, but I still think it makes sense. It's obvious that Kansas will be at a severe disadvantage when OSU has the ball, as Chuba Hubbard is likely to run roughshod over them, but if you look at the stats, when Kansas has the ball, they will have the advantage over OSU regardless if they run or pass. We know Kansas's defense is poor. For example, they're 91st in yards per play against. Well, OSU is 85th. Kansas is 91st in yards per pass attempt against, but OSU is 81st. I think Kansas has the opportunity to match scores with them for a good portion of the game, and OSU is also without their top receiver Wallace for the year. Kansas is coming off a terrible performance at home 2 weeks ago against Kansas State, but they've been very good offensively on the road, and they are still energized by their change in fortune under Miles...a bounceback effort is likely. I think OSU is going to struggle to stop Kansas from scoring, similarly to how Texas struggled, and it's hard to cover 17 points in that scenario, especially when you consider that Kansas seldom turns the ball over (15th in giveaways) and OSU has been doing it regularly(110th)
 
2. Indiana +14.5 @ Penn State: When I line up these two teams season stats up against each other, I see a whole lot of stalemates. This Indiana team is not dynamic, but they play hard, and they really don't do anything poorly. They can move the ball on offense regardless of who is playing QB, and they are consistently stingy in all areas of their defense. 53rd against the run(and PSU struggles to run) 23rd against the pass. 22nd on 3rd down. 47th in sacks. I don't think Indiana has a prayer of running it against Penn State, but short of that, I can't find any obvious edges in this game for the Nittany Lions. When you consider that Penn State finds themselves in a tough motivational spot (teams that fall out of the top 4 playoff rankings are usually a good go against the following week), I can see the Hoosiers giving Penn State all they can handle.
 
3. Michigan St +13.5 @ Michigan: First of all, I will jump off this play if MSU's QB Lewerke is determined to be out due to the concussion rumors. He's not great, but I will not bet on that backup Lombardi, who's more of a mascot than a quarterback(assuming he's still the backup). Assuming Lewerke's in there, here's my justification: A few weeks ago people were falling all over themselves to get to the window to bet on Notre Dame on their trip to Ann Arbor. They couldn't believe that Notre Dame was getting points against this trash Michigan outfit and their fraud coach. Never mind that Notre Dame was a soft team and a fraud themselves with a QB in Book that was mostly a bumslayer and had yet to prove he could be effective against a good defense. I was on Michigan that day, and I see a lot of the same sentiment here as MSU makes their way to Ann Arbor. "MSU is a mess." "Their offense sucks." Well, after the debacle against Illinois, who has some sort of voodoo magic going on, I can understand calling them a mess, but the offense is capable of moving the ball. They had 550 yards last week against a middle of the pack defense in Illinois and had 445 yards against a solid defense in Indiana earlier. They were completely shut down by Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, but so has everyone else. On the flip side, has anyone watched Michigan's offense? Statistically, MSU has severe advantages against the Michigan offense in the run game, the pass game and 3rd down, so I don't see any evidence that Michigan will be moving it up and down the field on them. I also find it hard to believe that they won't see this as an us against the world, circle the wagons, "this is our Rose Bowl" type of game and give Michigan their absolute best shot. Hell, they've won 3 of the last 4 outright in Ann Arbor including the last 2 as 13 and 7 point underdogs. I know I'm in the extreme minority here, but I'll take the points, and see if Michigan can score enough to cover 2 TDs. By the way, if this juice moves, I'll be buying it up to 14.
 
4. Navy +7.5 @ Notre Dame: There's a lot to like about Navy in this one, despite the fact that you could have gotten 10 with them earlier this week, but I'd still take them at the current number. First of all, motivationally, Notre Dame never plays Navy with the vitriol and hatred necessary to run out a competitive opponent. I mean, it's Navy. These guys are part of our nation's military. You don't get up for them like you would a boogie man like Miami or USC. Also, remember that while Notre Dame is locked into a ho hum season regardless of what happens here, Navy still has a legitimate shot at qualifying for a Near Years Six bowl, which would be among the best finishes in their history. Also, they're probably sporting their best defense of the past 25 years, maybe more as they rank 22 in yards per play, 18th against the run and 22nd on 3rd down. When they are a short dog in this game, they've pulled off outright upsets, and they always play ND better in South Bend. I think they can absolutely pull the outright and expect this game to be tied or within a FG in the final minutes one way or another.
 
I think you are an Indiana guy right? Man I hated to see the QB go down. I’ve never admitted here, but they are a team I root for. As much as I didn’t like Dinardo at LSU, I’ll forever been indebted to him/IU for one of my fave players ever Tracey Porter.

The future is bright enough there yes?
 
Love the plays. On Indiana and Navy with an Over in the Kansas game. You may have finally gotten me to back off my Michigan mindlessness. About the 10th person I’ve heard endorse them and each time I’ve weakened my lean. As for the OT thoughts at the very least a ML should be awarded at 50% for reaching OT and then paid fully upon win. I know I would’ve been much better off myself. By games end I had 8 positions ranging from +300 to +13.5. The decision to not give Pitt any time vs going for a TD and then holding them out of the endzone on other end really got under my skin. I understand the idea but who wants to settle for a damn OT when you can win with just a little D. Sorry for the rant. Great plays last week. Appreciate your hard work! Get Em!
 
Hey Twink, lived in Indiana for 13 years but now I'm back in Chicago and actually graduated from Illinois, so I'm an Illini. Definitely have to hand it to Tom Ace or whatever his name is at Indiana, they've had a great year, and they're fortunate to have 2 competent QBs. Probably not a lot of high end potential there(ceiling probably at 8 wins?) but I don't think they're going to be in any danger of hitting a low floor as long as Rutgers and Maryland are around in the B10 East.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Love the plays. On Indiana and Navy with an Over in the Kansas game. You may have finally gotten me to back off my Michigan mindlessness. About the 10th person I’ve heard endorse them and each time I’ve weakened my lean. As for the OT thoughts at the very least a ML should be awarded at 50% for reaching OT and then paid fully upon win. I know I would’ve been much better off myself. By games end I had 8 positions ranging from +300 to +13.5. The decision to not give Pitt any time vs going for a TD and then holding them out of the endzone on other end really got under my skin. I understand the idea but who wants to settle for a damn OT when you can win with just a little D. Sorry for the rant. Great plays last week. Appreciate your hard work! Get Em!
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Thanks PNG :shake:

I'm with you on almost any rant involving incompetent football coaching decisions. They are so common it's hard to keep track of them.
 
Enjoyed reading this week again.

here is some feedback:

I like the points you make on Kansas.

I think I like Indiana but am having a hard time quantifying it.

I have very little respect for the capabilites of this Michigan State team. But you do ask an interesting question "On the flip side, has anyone watched Michigan's offense?" Hmmm. Yes, working backwards. Uninspiring game at Maryland...people seem to blame the conservative play calling. The Notre Dame game, I can't hide that I thought was pretty impressive regardless of one's opinion of who ND was or is. Michigan did to Illinois what most expected they should've. Now we are on Iowa. So my question, spun off of your question...is the real Michigan O closer to what we saw vs Iowa, or closer to what we saw vs ND? No way they can count on being that one-dimensional vs MSU....atleast I'd be pretty surprised if they could. I gave virtually no shot to MSU SU win...you aren't talking win, but I also gave them little chance to keep it competitive. You have me thinking...and I don't know if Michigan's O can or should be trusted. I don't know. I rarely lay DD anyway so it wasn't a meaningful bet I was prepared to make on Michigan...it would probably serve me best to stay away all together. It might be fair to say that nobody yet has a good gauge on what Michigan is or isn't.

I think it would be great if Navy was within a FG late. Definitely would want that to happen. Just to note, two of the three years that Navy beat them on a short line like you reference...2 of those 3 ND teams finished .500 or worse ('09 and '16). And the other year ND was just 3-3 entering the Navy game, which they lost, but finished 8-5 in 2010. So it has something to do with how bad the Irish are as much as how good Navy is. How bad is this Irish team?

Keep up the good work!
 
Alot of the same reads as you. Might be good or bad haha. Also a chicago guy and went to iu...lets have a big week
 
s--k said:
Enjoyed reading this week again.

here is some feedback:

I like the points you make on Kansas.

I think I like Indiana but am having a hard time quantifying it.

I have very little respect for the capabilites of this Michigan State team. But you do ask an interesting question "On the flip side, has anyone watched Michigan's offense?" Hmmm. Yes, working backwards. Uninspiring game at Maryland...people seem to blame the conservative play calling. The Notre Dame game, I can't hide that I thought was pretty impressive regardless of one's opinion of who ND was or is. Michigan did to Illinois what most expected they should've. Now we are on Iowa. So my question, spun off of your question...is the real Michigan O closer to what we saw vs Iowa, or closer to what we saw vs ND? No way they can count on being that one-dimensional vs MSU....atleast I'd be pretty surprised if they could. I gave virtually no shot to MSU SU win...you aren't talking win, but I also gave them little chance to keep it competitive. You have me thinking...and I don't know if Michigan's O can or should be trusted. I don't know. I rarely lay DD anyway so it wasn't a meaningful bet I was prepared to make on Michigan...it would probably serve me best to stay away all together. It might be fair to say that nobody yet has a good gauge on what Michigan is or isn't.

I think it would be great if Navy was within a FG late. Definitely would want that to happen. Just to note, two of the three years that Navy beat them on a short line like you reference...2 of those 3 ND teams finished .500 or worse ('09 and '16). And the other year ND was just 3-3 entering the Navy game, which they lost, but finished 8-5 in 2010. So it has something to do with how bad the Irish are as much as how good Navy is. How bad is this Irish team?

Keep up the good work!
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This right here is why I love coming to the board and like to post plays. Thanks so much for taking the time my friend.

I certainly don't want to ignore that Michigan performance against Notre Dame, but everything was working in the Wolverines' favor that night. ND just refused to compete on a night that Michigan was certainly engaged 100%, tired of listening to the guffaws everyone was having out them and their coach However, we have to remember that there was a lot of legitimacy to what people were saying about Michigan back then. Did it all just vanish over 2 weeks? MSU's current state reminds me of the laughter we heard around Michigan earlier. College kids have a way of performing exactly the opposite of what you'd expect in extreme situations, and I think that might happen here.
 
5. Central Michigan +2.5 @ Ball State: I can't say I have any earth shattering opinions about which team might be more motivated, or who finds themselves in a better spot. This is just a classic case of one team materializing as the better squad through the methods I use in my fundamental handicapping. CMU is more efficient overall on offense and defense than Ball State is, and I think Central will be able to run the ball on the Cardinals as their 27th ranked run game matches up against Ball State"s 93rd ranked run D. Over the past 5 weeks, you can make a case that Central has been as good as anyone in the MAC, and I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I'll take the 2.5.
 
College kids have a way of performing exactly the opposite of what you'd expect in extreme situations, and I think that might happen here.
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Very true. And I have played teams with that mentality in mind as well.
 
6. Memphis -10 @ Houston: There was a bit of extra juice here, but I grabbed this one at 10. This year has been a very weird one for Houston. New coach Dana Holgerson either saw a lot of promise in Houston or was running away from a self inflicted mess in West Virginia, but the end result was that the Cougs got themselves a name coach with an offensive pedigree that matched what they had been in previous years, and what could be again with D'Eriq King back in the saddle. Things soured quickly, however, as King decided the new regime was not his kind of scene, and talent started voluntarily redshirting en masse. To their credit the Cougs held it together and delivered some heady performances, especially at home against SMU and for awhile in their home tilt vs Cincy in couple tough losses. A putrid performance at UCONN in which they narrowly avoid a horrific loss led to what looked to be a death march into Orlando to face UCF, but they once again showed up, leading at the half only to fade in the second half. At this point, I can't see how they summon up the effort to face yet another top American squad at home. I think this is the week that the wheels fall off and the resolve just melts away. When you look at this matchup, i just can't see how Houston can hope to get stops against this Memphis offense, who sits at 8-1 with a great shot at the New Years Six spot. God forbid if they fall short of that by the way...the most recent bowl projections for the American runner up has them playing Toledo in the Camelia Bowl or something. I digress....Houston is atrocious on defense in all areas. Take a look at some of these comparisons: Yards per play: Memphis O: 8th Houston D: 127th. Rushing ypc: Memphis 26 Houston: 123. Yards per pass attempt: Memphis O: 9th. Houston D: 101st. Houston is also 118th in sacks on defense, so Memphis QB White won't be bothered as he picks apart the Cougar secondary. Heck, in the name of consistency they give up sacks like crazy on offense too. I can see Memphis getting 50 here. I think we'e looking at a 51-23 type game.
 
7. Wyoming +6 @ Utah State. This one is a coaching mismatch in my opinion. I know I had some insults for Gary Andersen last week and he came up with a win in Fresno, but Wyoming might be the most well coached team in the MWC and there's no way Wyoming should be getting 6 points here. By my estimation, Wyoming has the edge in every phase of this game...certainly the running game on both sides of the ball. The Utah State defense, which previously was a strength, can't stop 3rd down conversions (122nd) and can't stop the pass (118th) which should bode well for backup QB Tyler Van Der Waal who is getting better each week. I should also point out that Utah State is turning the ball over at a breakneck pace (117th in turnovers lost) while Wyoming is 3rd in the country in avoiding giveaways. This is another case of dare I say, the wrong team is favored, and we're getting 6. Can't pass it up.
 
8. Minnesota +3 @ Iowa: I know there's a lot of sharp sentiment out there and I've heard that the books are trying to beg you to keep taking Minnesota. If that's the case, I think the books are dead wrong on this one. I mentioned last week that I view the Minnesota offense as an elite passing squad, and they proved it against Penn State.I'm hearing that Iowa has some sort of juju at home, and I can't deny it because we've seen it in previous seasons many times, but I don't think they have it this year. Defensively, Iowa is good, but they aren't as good as Penn State, and we saw what Tanner Morgan did against them. There won't be a letdown from Minnesota because they still are not getting their perceived respect from the committee and they certainly will notice that the oddsmakers aren't sold. Fleck will have them raring to go, and I don't think this Iowa team, in it's current state and with the increasingly mistake prone Nate Stanley running the show can handle this Minnesota team at it's best. It's been 20 years or some shit since Minnesota won at Kinnick Stadium, but there haven't been many Minnesota teams as good as this one in my opinion.
 
I've never seen anybody write so positively about Michigan State's offense. It's completely incompetent and that incompetence begins with a coaching staff that can't keep it's players strong and healthy and that has seen its quarterback regress from a dark horse Heisman candidate to a wildly inaccurate loser. Strange to see Indiana's defense be regarded that positively, too. I admittedly haven't watched much Hoosiers but I saw that they gave up 28 to Maryland and 31 to Nebraska, which is well above each team's average, and in general they haven't been tested much (disregarding Ohio State).

Michigan State's run-blocking has struggled to give any push even against lesser programs in non-conference competition. It ranks 99th in opportunity rate. Lewerke is inefficient and as you said Lombardi is absolutely useless. That Rutgers game in which he started still has me cringe.

On the other side, Sparty's pass defense has been constantly vulnerable even if the stats don't quite reflect it. It's too easy for opposing quarterbacks to march downfield and Illinois' last drive is just one example. How any team could be so dumb as to leave Illinois' top pass-catcher one-on-one in a decisive situation is truly beyond me and of course he went up and made a critical catch.

Overall, the team has allowed over 30 points in 4 of its past 5 games. Former defensive leader Joe Bachie is just one loss in a relatively wounded team.

Michigan's offensive strength has always been its passing game. Yeah Shea has incurred his fair share of criticism. He is a playmaker though. And no doubt Michigan is absolutely stacked at wide receiver.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Wyoming +6 @ Utah State. This one is a coaching mismatch in my opinion. I know I had some insults for Gary Andersen last week and he came up with a win in Fresno, but Wyoming might be the most well coached team in the MWC and there's no way Wyoming should be getting 6 points here. By my estimation, Wyoming has the edge in every phase of this game...certainly the running game on both sides of the ball. The Utah State defense, which previously was a strength, can't stop 3rd down conversions (122nd) and can't stop the pass (118th) which should bode well for backup QB Tyler Van Der Waal who is getting better each week. I should also point out that Utah State is turning the ball over at a breakneck pace (117th in turnovers lost) while Wyoming is 3rd in the country in avoiding giveaways. This is another case of dare I say, the wrong team is favored, and we're getting 6. Can't pass it up.
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Really like this play.
 
9. @Colorado State +10 v Air Force: At 7-2, it's obviously been a great year for Air Force, and I usually look for ways to back the Falcons, but this is a role (road favorite) that they really don't relish. They're 2-7 in their last 9 in that role. Also, the dog has covered 5 straight times in this series and CSU has covered the last 3 times they were a dog. These two schools are very close to each other, and although I'm not sure Air Force considers this a big rivalry, CSU does. Colorado St has had some injuries, including at QB, but the backup Patrick O'Brien has settled in the past 3 weeks and they are actually a pretty solid passing team that I think will move the ball on this Air Force defense who stops the run pretty well, but struggles against the pass (86th....Army of all teams threw for 200+ on them in their last game). I'm sure Air Force will get their yards on the ground here, but CSU has faces this offense every year, so it won't be a mystery. This is just too many points in this spot. I don't think the Rams are a bad squad, especially in the past few weeks.
 
Love the write ups again this week. On CSU with you. Never like laying double digits with AF and CSU has had a pulse lately. Extra rest and prep can't hurt.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Indiana +14.5 @ Penn State: When I line up these two teams season stats up against each other, I see a whole lot of stalemates. This Indiana team is not dynamic, but they play hard, and they really don't do anything poorly. They can move the ball on offense regardless of who is playing QB, and they are consistently stingy in all areas of their defense. 53rd against the run(and PSU struggles to run) 23rd against the pass. 22nd on 3rd down. 47th in sacks. I don't think Indiana has a prayer of running it against Penn State, but short of that, I can't find any obvious edges in this game for the Nittany Lions. When you consider that Penn State finds themselves in a tough motivational spot (teams that fall out of the top 4 playoff rankings are usually a good go against the following week), I can see the Hoosiers giving Penn State all they can handle.
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I like this Indiana play today. Situationally, a tough spot for Penn St. after loss to Minn and OSU on deck. Indiana fortunate to have two competent qb's and Ramsey/Penix numbers are almost identical. I think Indiana defense is underrated. Their numbers on pass defense are impressive (6.2 ypc) and they have been able to generate some pass rush 20 sacks on season. I feel like Penn St. defense is overrated to a certain extent, especially pass defense. They were fortunate to hang on in the Mich game, where Mich controlled the TOP and out stat'd them. Indiana with exception of OSU game have consistently scored mid 30's and I feel like if they can put up over 21 today I really like their chance of covering.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I've never seen anybody write so positively about Michigan State's offense. It's completely incompetent and that incompetence begins with a coaching staff that can't keep it's players strong and healthy and that has seen its quarterback regress from a dark horse Heisman candidate to a wildly inaccurate loser. Strange to see Indiana's defense be regarded that positively, too. I admittedly haven't watched much Hoosiers but I saw that they gave up 28 to Maryland and 31 to Nebraska, which is well above each team's average, and in general they haven't been tested much (disregarding Ohio State).

Michigan State's run-blocking has struggled to give any push even against lesser programs in non-conference competition. It ranks 99th in opportunity rate. Lewerke is inefficient and as you said Lombardi is absolutely useless. That Rutgers game in which he started still has me cringe.

On the other side, Sparty's pass defense has been constantly vulnerable even if the stats don't quite reflect it. It's too easy for opposing quarterbacks to march downfield and Illinois' last drive is just one example. How any team could be so dumb as to leave Illinois' top pass-catcher one-on-one in a decisive situation is truly beyond me and of course he went up and made a critical catch.

Overall, the team has allowed over 30 points in 4 of its past 5 games. Former defensive leader Joe Bachie is just one loss in a relatively wounded team.

Michigan's offensive strength has always been its passing game. Yeah Shea has incurred his fair share of criticism. He is a playmaker though. And no doubt Michigan is absolutely stacked at wide receiver.
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Thanks for the feedback VC. Well, the entirety of my comments on the MSU offense were "they are capable of moving the ball", and pointed out two games where they did. That's it. I'm still looking for the soliloquy on the MSU offense in what I wrote but can't find it.

As for Indiana's D, here are their ranks: Not bad

Overall Yards per play: 32
Rushing yards per carry: 53
Passing yards per attempt: 23
3rd down conversions against: 22

80-90% of my angle on this game is situational/motivational. There's risk in every play, and I know about the specifics of that Illinois game because I'm an Illinois alum, watched every play and loved it. Can't argue with your thoughts. GL with your plays.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for the feedback VC. Well, the entirety of my comments on the MSU offense were "they are capable of moving the ball", and pointed out two games where they did. That's it. I'm still looking for the soliloquy on the MSU offense in what I wrote but can't find it.

As for Indiana's D, here are their ranks: Not bad

Overall Yards per play: 32
Rushing yards per carry: 53
Passing yards per attempt: 23
3rd down conversions against: 22

80-90% of my angle on this game is situational/motivational. There's risk in every play, and I know about the specifics of that Illinois game because I'm an Illinois alum, watched every play and loved it. Can't argue with your thoughts. GL with your plays.
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Thanks for the response. Maybe I misunderstood you a bit and my apologies if I did. You said you could understand calling them a mess „but“ they‘re capable of moving the ball. Obviously the latter part of the quote can be interpreted in a wide range of ways (such is language) since literally speaking every offense is capable of moving the ball and bc of the but I thought you were saying they‘re not a mess.
Also do those Hoosier D rankings account for strength of opp?

Great stuff man, really love that you‘re doing these write-ups...disagreement will be inevitable I didn‘t mean to sound overly critical my bad
 
One thing to offer motivational support for Minnesota. When Fleck came the trophy case was empty. They want these trophies. Got the Axe last year. Got a bowl trophy last year. Got the Governor's Cup last week. Today they get Floyd.
 
Enjoy your analyses and so glad you’re back
i join you on first three picks , plus Wyo and Minny. GL
 
This is somewhat a sign to me. The last games I left off my card were Memphis, Wyoming, and Central Michigan.....I believe in signs like this and I may need to add these 3 now haha.

BOL
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Thanks for the response. Maybe I misunderstood you a bit and my apologies if I did. You said you could understand calling them a mess „but“ they‘re capable of moving the ball. Obviously the latter part of the quote can be interpreted in a wide range of ways (such is language) since literally speaking every offense is capable of moving the ball and bc of the but I thought you were saying they‘re not a mess.
Also do those Hoosier D rankings account for strength of opp?

Great stuff man, really love that you‘re doing these write-ups...disagreement will be inevitable I didn‘t mean to sound overly critical my bad
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No no no no, VC...good points for sure and no offense taken. My whole position getting 13.5 is that I only need MSU to punch in about 14 points(hopefully) to be in good shape. Thanks for the kind words.
 
11. Baylor +10.5 v Oklahoma: The obvious fear when going against Oklahoma is that you have to hope for stops against that offense. Well, I think we might a good candidate in this Baylor team. We've seen it all before. "Non traditional" team with a great record feels disrespected by lack of proper ranking, so motivation is not a problem. Add the extra juice of GameDay being on campus and you have even more motivation. What I like about it is that Baylor is coming off 2 straight borderline terrible performances and they are coached by one of the most competent people in the country with a track record of coming up big in this role (home dog--13-5 with 8 outright wins.)Defensively, they are 12th against the pass, 10th in yards per play against and 17th against the run, so they'll be easily the best defense Oklahoma has played. They also bring a lot of pressure so OU's shaky OL will be on the spot, and if they make Hurts run when he doesn't want to, he'll throw several balls up for grabs. On offense, I like their chances. Kansas State and Iowa State have put up 48 and 41 respectively in OU's last two games. Baylor has a comparable offense to Iowa State and a much better one than K State, so I like their chances to trade scores with OU if necessary. We don't even need that with a 10.5 spread.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
On the other side, Sparty's pass defense has been constantly vulnerable even if the stats don't quite reflect it. It's too easy for opposing quarterbacks to march downfield and Illinois' last drive is just one example. How any team could be so dumb as to leave Illinois' top pass-catcher one-on-one in a decisive situation is truly beyond me and of course he went up and made a critical catch.
Michigan's offensive strength has always been its passing game. Yeah Shea has incurred his fair share of criticism. He is a playmaker though. And no doubt Michigan is absolutely stacked at wide receiver.
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You had this one pegged VC. Patterson: 24/34 384 yards 4 TD/0 INT. Excellent call. Keep it coming man...we can all learn every week.
 
Br@ssknux said:
You had this one pegged VC. Patterson: 24/34 384 yards 4 TD/0 INT. Excellent call. Keep it coming man...we can all learn every week.
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My play had some luck, though as Josiah Scott was injured on like the second play of the game. I hope we all learn a lot together and I hope you cash big today man! We all have teams that we watch more or less. I think BAR had it 31-10 Michigan, so pretty on-point.
 
Baylor keeps getting totally disrespected by both oddsmakers and playoff people alike. I think a lot of people thought Baylor would keep improving after last year but I don't think many can fathom this sort of a jump.
 
Can someone explain to PJ Fleck that he can get 15 yards plus every time he throws the ball? Stop running. Iowa can't stop the pass, Penn State couldn't stop the pass, nobody has stopped Tanner Morgan all year. Just throw the ball!
 
Just to sum up:

Kansas +17 LOSE
Indiana +14.5 WIN
Michigan St +13.5 LOSE
Navy +7.5 LOSE
Central Mich +2 WIN
Memphis -10 WIN
Wyoming +6 WIN
Minnesota +3 LOSE
Colorado St +10 LOSE (Painfully)
Louisville -4 WIN
Baylor +10.5 WIN

6-5 Week. Slightly better than a coin flip.
 
Yeah but a coin flip is over and done in 3 seconds. When you play a slate of games over the course of the day the possibilities seem endless.
 
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