Week 12 Write ups and hopefully feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Bad week for me with a couple of bad beats, but no sense dwelling on those now. I have a bit of a work emergency so I don't know how much time I'll have this week, but I at least wanted to get this one out there.

1. East Carolina -2.5 @ Cincinnati: ECU has had a couple of bad weeks back to back as they barely escaped UConn, and lost to Temple on the road. The Temple game was a joke, as they fumbled the ball 7 times and lost 5 of them. (Temple fumbled 4 times in the bad weather, but recovered all 4.) They outgained Temple 428-135, but due to a defensive score on one of the fumbles and extremely short fields on the other 2, they gave up 20 points and lost. Now they face Cincinnati on the road in a Thursday nighter on national TV. ECU has always been a team that relishes the chance to prove something on the big stage...notice their big wins this year over Virginia Tech and North Carolina. On paper, this is a total mismatch between the Cincinnati defense and the ECU offense. Cincinnati has already given up 710 yards to Ohio State, 621 to Miami and 611 to Memphis, which indicates how helpless their defense is. Their defensive numbers would be worse than they are if they played more decent offensive teams, but their schedule is littered with the likes of Tulane(who got 400 yards anyway), SMU, and South Florida, 3 of the weakest offenses in D-1. ECU is legit on offense, and is one of the better defensive squads Cincy will have played. QB Gunner Kiel has been good, but he's turnover prone and banged up to boot. ECU is due for a good performance as well as some good fortune. I can't see hoe Cincy has a chance to stop their offense.

 

[bull]

leaning ECU myself, FWW.

 

[RetroVK]

Yup I lean that way too.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Bull, Kyle. Didn't work out. On to the next one.


2. South Carolina +7 @ Florida: There are a lot of things that have to go right for Florida to win this game by more than a TD. First of all, they will have to avoid turnovers, something they've been able to do the past 2 weeks, but something that is certainly NOT part of their recent pedigree. They'll also need to run the ball like they did against Georgia a couple of weeks ago, because they've proven time and again that they can't throw it. Third, they will have to avoid a return of the terrible karma that's haunted them this year and throughout the Muschamp era, especially at home. Can Will Muschamp really continue to have things go his way for a third week in a row? In my opinion, Florida's pass defense is a paper tiger...they've done well lately defensively, but both Alabama and Kentucky proved that Florida can be had against competent pass offenses, and South Carolina definitely has one of those. I think the Cocks will be able to move the ball consistently on the Gators, as they are ranked as the 3rd best offense in the country after schedule adjustment. South Carolina has been atrocious on defense, but they've had 2 weeks to prepare for a relatively limited offense, and It's tough to cover a TD when your offense is limited and your opponent can light up the scoreboard. I think Florida gets South Carolina's best shot here, as they'd like nothing better than to eliminate Florida from the SEC East race in front of the Ol Ball Coach.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Clemson -2.5 @Georgia Tech: Full marks as usual to Paul Johnson, as his team is absolutely rolling offensively. They've compiled a record of 8-2, and truthfully, they could be undefeated because both of their losses were in the final minutes by less than a TD. Having said that though, just about everyone on their schedule has been a nice matchup for them. Nobody on their schedule can be classified as a balanced squad. They've either been able to expose a terrible defense, or the offense they played didn't have the firepower to make their subpar defense pay. I think their luck is going to run out this week against Clemson, and I say that with full disclosure that I'll be rooting for the Jackets in this one, so I hope I'm wrong. Clemson will be the best defense GT has played this year by a country mile(except maybe Miami), and Clemson's offense, while somewhat pedestrian over the last few weeks, will welcome back QB DeShawn Watson. To be fair, even under Cole Stoudt, Clemson's offense was coming around, having put up 427 yards last week against a pretty good Wake defense on the road. Under Watson, Clemson scored 50 and 41 points in back to back weeks aganst UNC and NC State when Watson was healthy. Believe it or not GT's defense is actually only slightly better than those 2 statistically, so I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball. I also think their #2 ranked defense will hold down this GT offense enough to get the W.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Iowa -3.5 @Illinois: I'd love to see the Illini have a nice game here, but it just looks like a bad matchup to me. Illinois' bread and butter is throwing the ball downfield, especially with Wes Lunt back, but Iowa ranks 7th in the country in pass defense and was #1 in that category just last week. Also, although Iowa has struggled to run the ball for large periods this year, they do have a downhill running game that can wreak havoc on weaker rush defenses, which Illinois certainly qualifies as. Iowa is coming off an embarrassing shellacking at the hands of Minnesota, so I would expect a great effort in this one. This is not the kind of game the Illini win.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Minnesota +14 v Ohio State: At his point is would certainly appear that the Buckeyes are on their way to the Big 10 title game after their great effort against Michigan State, but now find themselves on the road again, this time in frozen Minneapolis to play a Gopher squad pretty high on themselves after they bulldozed the Hawkeyes. I size these matchups up as pretty even with a slight edge to OSU in most cases, but Minnesota is getting better each week, especially in the passing game. Mitch Leidner threw 4 TD passes vs 0 INT against what was previously the best pass defense in the region. I also think they'll have success in the running game. Also keep in mind it's going to be very cold up there this week, and the combination of the cold and a bad emotional spot will make things very tough on the Buckeyes if they don't have their best effort. The Gophers are getting a little more attention lately because they snuck into the Playoff Rankings, but most of the attention has been negative and backhanded. Jerry Kill will get a great effort out of them this week, and if he plays to win(a big IF with these underdogs sometimes), they've got a shot at the outright in my opinion.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Pitt +3(buy if possible) @ UNC: I think Pitt is going to move the ball at will on this North Carolina defense. UNC is terrible in all phases of defense, especially against the pass, and Pitt has been more than competent against a pretty strong slate of defenses this year. I was able to get 3 at (-125)..hopefully others can still get it there. In addition to being terrible against the pass, UNC has been throttled by most good running attacks as well, ranking 99th against the run, so James Conner should be able to move the chains as well. Pitt is no world beater on defense, but they won't have to face much of a rushing attack from UNC (103rd) and they are pretty competent at stopping the pass. Pitt also enjoys a sizable edge in special teams as long as they keep the ball away from Ryan Switzer. It looks to me like the wrong team is favored here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Temple +11.5 @ Penn State: Here's how many points Penn State's offense has scored in regulation in their last 5 games: 13, 19,19,13, 6. They also have a 13 point performance against Rutgers in there earlier in the year too. The teams that they've played have defenses that are at best either equal to or negligibly better than Temple. The question then becomes, how can they cover 11.5 points if they can't score more than 20 on a good day? Hell, they couldn't cover 6 last week when they didn't allow an offensive point against an Indiana team who's defense isn't in the same area code with Temple's statistically. To me, it seems like a good bet, and Temple has been opportunistic all year too boot. Maybe the hired goons that have Hackenberg bought off will order up a couple of pick 6's to boot.

 

[D-Woww]

You rarely see a college game with the double digits bread and a total so low. The books are pretty much telling you they don't plan on Temple scoring more than 10-14 points. I am laying off though I could see this being a 21-6 game

 

[Br@ssknux]

You rarely see a college game with the double digits bread and a total so low. The books are pretty much telling you they don't plan on Temple scoring more than 10-14 points. I am laying off though I could see this being a 21-6 game

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Temple's offense got shut out, just like Indiana's did last week. I just feel like Penn State has been so bad on offense, they'll have all kinds of trouble covering double digits. Hell, if it wasn't for a 95 yard run with help from a block by an official, Penn State might have been held to 6 points last week. That fluke TD run was the only TD they had all game. This could be a repeat of the Akron game, though, no doubt. (21-3)

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Georgia Southern +3 @ Navy: These teams are mirror images of each other, both option attacks that chew up yardage. However, the difference appears to be that GSU has a stronger defense than Navy. Both offenses should control things when they have the ball, but I think GSU's defense has a better shot of stopping Navy than vice versa. GSU has also thrown the ball more effectively. Throw in the fact that Navy is nothing special ATS both at home or as a favorite, and I'll take the points.


9. Nebraska +7(buy) @ Wisconsin: Well, the last time Wisconsin was at home, they brutalized Maryland, but here I go again. It's another example of two teams who are carbon copies of each other. Both teams are running the ball fantasically and playing good defense. I just think that the Huskers have played a tougher schedule and have the better ability to throw the ball if the run game is bottled up. Other than their opener against LSU, Wisconsin hasn't really played anyone of consequence offensively, so we really don't know how good their defense is. Nebraska on the other hand has been tested in games with Miami and Michigan State, and has even fared a bit better against common opponents. There's some question on Nebraska stud RB Ameer Abdullah's health, but he's going to play and recent reports have been more positive. In a game between such similar teams, I'll take the points with the more tested team. One other thing....this is one of the biggest mismatches you'll see in a passing offense vs pass defense scenario: Wisconsin is ranked 116th in passer rating, Nebraska is 2nd in passer rating against!! If Stave throws for 300, I give up.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Mississippi State +10 @ Alabama: Has a team ever received less respect as an undefeated #1 ranked squad than Mississippi State? I get that Bama is a juggernaut and that they've been destroying people at home, but this Bulldog squad under Mullen is no joke. Dak Prescott is by all intents and purposes healthy, and he's the highest rated passer in the country both on third down and in the 4th quarter. Their offense hasn't really been stopped by anyone all year, and they've passed every test they've run into with flying colors. If they win this game, they can almost punch their ticket to the playoff even if they lose to Ole Miss in a couple weeks. Bama on the other hand is coming off an exhausting game at LSU in which the barely escaped with their lives. It's a tall order in my opinion to put forth a great effort a second week in a row against a better team than LSU. Offensively they've struggled mightily against good defenses, and MSU is ranked 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. I think this one will come down to the wire, so I'll gladly take Prescott and the 10 points.

 

[smith1051]

Br@ss - just wanted to say I love your writeups. One of the threads I look for each week. Oh and fuck ECU - think they have fucked me the last 3 times I bet them

 

[Br@ssknux]

Br@ss - just wanted to say I love your writeups. One of the threads I look for each week. Oh and fuck ECU - think they have fucked me the last 3 times I bet them

Thanks Smitty....yeah...I actually expected even more offensive dominance than ECU showed. I thought they kind of sucked offensively and they still scored 46. I thought they would compete better on defense too, adn I was surprised Kiel lasted the whole game as banged up as he was. Expected a solid bounceback from the Pirates but we saw more of the same. What can you do? Glad you like the writeups. They're due to actually be accurate one of these weeks.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Utah +8.5 @ Stanford: I just don't think that Stanford can score enough on this Utah defense to cover this number. This is going to be a low scoring game, and I think these teams are very evenly matched, very similar to many games on the card this week. Utah has competed with everyone, and last week had as bad a break in a game than I can remember when the kid dropped the ball at the goal line on the long TD pass. That one was a true 14 point swing, and it definitely affected the outcome of that game. Stanford hasn't cracked 20 points against any of the solid defensive squads on their schedule, and Utah is perhaps the best defensive team they've faced all year, ranking 4th in defensive efficiency even after their game with Oregon this week. They've already beaten UCLA on the road and were inches away from knocking off Arizona State in Tempe as well. Stanford is 5-4, and I think they are what their record says they are.


12. @Georgia -2.5 v Auburn: Auburn's defense is trending in the wrong direction, and now they have to face a team that scored a touchdown on every offensive possession last week and gets Todd Gurley back. It's going to be a tall order for Auburn to get over the heartache of last week's debacle against Texas A&M, so I'm worried about their state of mind, and Georgia still has everything to play for, as they are still very much alive in the SEC East. Both offenses will have success, but I think the home field will have a big effect on this one. Short spread for the home team against a hearbroken squad who's leaking oil defensively.

 

[twinkie13]

great as always:shake:

 

[Timh]

BOL Brass always enjoy your threads.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13: LSU +1 @ Arkansas: If 7-3 LSU is an underdog against a 4-5 Arkansas team currently in a 16 game losing streak in the SEC, it's an auto play for me. I realize that Arkansas is eventually going to break that streak, but they don't give you +250 on your bet just because you were the contrarian who saw the potential(just like every other pundit in America) in this Arkansas team. Yeah, we all like Bielema. Yeah, we know they have a nice rushing attack. Yeah, we know they aren't terrible. But they shouldn't be favored in a game against LSU, regardless of the spot. LSU has the advantage statistically on both sides of the ball and those advantages are robust in the passing game. LSU has had some trouble stopping the run earlier in the year, but they held Bama to 3.7 yards per carry last week, so they have found their mojo there. If Arkansas gets off the mat and pulls off the win, more power to them, but as far as games like this, when I see it, I'll believe it.


14. @Miami +2.5 @ Florida State: I've mentioned this before, but Miami is one of the most consistently balanced teams in the country. Offensively they can run the ball with Duke Johnson, and Brad Kaaya has settled in to be a good quarterback, with the Canes ranked 10 the in the country in passer rating. Defensively, they're effective against both the run and the pass and they've done a nice job causing turnovers. I show that Miami has the edge in a lot of categories...I especially think Miami is going to score a lot in this game. 69% of the action is on FSU and the line hasn't moved an inch. I think Miami beats them. I know I'm a broken record on going against FSU, but I like it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Twink, Timmy...thanks as always to you guys. :cheers3: