Week 12 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 15 Tue 2022

06:00 PM
301Bowling Green+15½
-112		O 51
-110
302Toledo+1 Markets-15½
-108		U 51
-110
06:00 PM
303Ohio-3½
-110		O 53
-112
304Ball State+1 Markets+3½
-110		U 53
-108
Nov 16 Wed 2022

05:00 PM
305Eastern Michigan+7
-107		O 61
-110
306Kent State+1 Markets-7
-113		U 61
-110
06:00 PM
309Miami Ohio+2½
-110		O 48
-110
310Northern Illinois+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 48
-110
07:00 PM
307Western Michigan+10
-110		O 50
-110
308Central Michigan+1 Markets-10
-110		U 50
-110
Nov 17 Thu 2022

06:30 PM
313SMU+3
-107		O 65½
-110
314Tulane+1 Markets-3
-113		U 65½
-110
Nov 18 Fri 2022

08:00 PM
315South Florida+13
-110		O 60½
-110
316Tulsa+1 Markets-13
-110		U 60½
-110
08:45 PM
317San Diego State-14
-110		O 39½
-108
318New Mexico+1 Markets+14
-110		U 39½
-112
Nov 19 Sat 2022

10:00 AM
357Navy+16½
-110		O 53½
-110
358Central Florida+1 Markets-16½
-110		U 53½
-110
11:00 AM
323UL Lafayette+23½
-110		O 51½
-110
324Florida State+1 Markets-23½
-110		U 51½
-110
11:00 AM
333Duke+8
-113		O 54
-110
334Pittsburgh+1 Markets-8
-107		U 54
-110
11:00 AM
335Indiana+11½
-110		O 47
-110
336Michigan State+1 Markets-11½
-110		U 47
-110
11:00 AM
337Virginia Tech+9
+100		O 47
-110
338Liberty+1 Markets-9
-120		U 47
-110
11:00 AM
343Illinois+17
-110		O 42½
-115
344Michigan+1 Markets-17
-110		U 42½
-105
11:00 AM
345Northwestern+17½
-112		O 49½
-110
346Purdue+1 Markets-17½
-108		U 49½
-110
11:00 AM
351Connecticut+10½
-118		O 43½
-110
352Army+1 Markets-10½
-102		U 43½
-110
11:00 AM
371Massachusetts+33½
-110		O 50½
-110
372Texas A&M+1 Markets-33½
-110		U 50½
-110
11:00 AM
395Florida-14½
-107		O 57½
-110
396Vanderbilt+1 Markets+14½
-113		U 57½
-110
11:00 AM
397TCU-2
-120		O 57
-110
398Baylor+1 Markets+2
+100		U 57
-110
11:00 AM
405Wisconsin-13
-110		O 41
-110
406Nebraska+1 Markets+13
-110		U 41
-110
12:00 PM
375UTSA-12
-115		O 61
-110
376Rice+1 Markets+12
-105		U 61
-110
01:00 PM
321Kansas State-7½
-113		O 55
-110
322West Virginia+1 Markets+7½
-107		U 55
-110
01:00 PM
353Houston+6½
-111		O 67
-107
354East Carolina+1 Markets-6½
-109		U 67
-113
01:00 PM
361Georgia State+9½
-110		O 56
-107
362James Madison+1 Markets-9½
-110		U 56
-113
01:00 PM
377Washington State-4½
-110		O 63
-110
378Arizona+1 Markets+4½
-110		U 63
-110
01:15 PM
381Oregon State-7½
-115		O 55
-110
382Arizona State+1 Markets+7½
-105		U 55
-110
01:30 PM
359Old Dominion+14½
-110		O 52
-110
360Appalachian State+1 Markets-14½
-110		U 52
-110
01:30 PM
385Boston College+21
-110		O 46
-110
386Notre Dame+1 Markets-21
-110		U 46
-110
02:30 PM
325Penn State-19
-115		O 45
-110
326Rutgers+1 Markets+19
-105		U 45
-110
02:30 PM
329NC State+4
-110		O 48
-110
330Louisville+1 Markets-4
-110		U 48
-110
02:30 PM
339Miami Florida+19½
-110		O 46½
-110
340Clemson+1 Markets-19½
-110		U 46½
-110
02:30 PM
341Ohio State-27½
-105		O 64
-110
342Maryland+1 Markets+27½
-115		U 64
-110
02:30 PM
347Coastal Carolina+4
-112		O 44½
-110
348Virginia+1 Markets-4
-108		U 44½
-110
02:30 PM
349Georgia-22½
-115		O 49½
-110
350Kentucky+1 Markets+22½
-105		U 49½
-110
02:30 PM
363Texas-9½
-110		O 63½
-110
364Kansas+1 Markets+9½
-110		U 63½
-110
02:30 PM
401South Alabama-7
-115		O 46½
-110
402Southern Miss+1 Markets+7
-105		U 46½
-110
02:30 PM
409UL Monroe+15½
-110		O 46½
-110
410Troy+1 Markets-15½
-110		U 46½
-110
02:30 PM
411Akron+16½
-108		O 54½
-110
412Buffalo+1 Markets-16½
-112		U 54½
-110
02:30 PM
413Louisiana Tech-3
-110		O 65
-110
414Charlotte+1 Markets+3
-110		U 65
-110
02:30 PM
415Florida Atlantic-5
-110		O 53
-110
416Middle Tennessee State+1 Markets+5
-110		U 53
-110
03:00 PM
355Cincinnati-18
-107		O 54
-110
356Temple+1 Markets+18
-113		U 54
-110
03:00 PM
365Western Kentucky+6½
-115		O 52½
-110
366Auburn+1 Markets-6½
-105		U 52½
-110
03:00 PM
367Iowa+2½
-110		O 32½
-110
368Minnesota+1 Markets-2½
-110		U 32½
-110
03:00 PM
417Florida International+14½
-110		O 51½
-110
418UTEP+1 Markets-14½
-110		U 51½
-110
04:00 PM
419Arkansas State+4½
-105		O 52½
-110
420Texas State+1 Markets-4½
-115		U 52½
-110
04:30 PM
369Georgia Tech+20
-105		O 63½
-110
370North Carolina+1 Markets-20
-115		U 63½
-110
04:30 PM
387Stanford+6
-110		O 46½
-110
388California+1 Markets-6
-110		U 46½
-110
05:00 PM
421Marshall-3
-116		O 53½
-110
422Georgia Southern+1 Markets+3
-104		U 53½
-110
06:00 PM
319Texas Tech+3½
-109		O 47½
-110
320Iowa State+1 Markets-3½
-111		U 47½
-110
06:00 PM
327Tennessee-22
-110		O 66½
-110
328South Carolina+1 Markets+22
-110		U 66½
-110
06:00 PM
423Boise State-12½
-115		O 44½
-110
424Wyoming+1 Markets+12½
-105		U 44½
-110
06:30 PM
399Mississippi-3
-110		O 59
-110
400Arkansas+1 Markets+3
-110		U 59
-110
06:30 PM
403Oklahoma State+6½
-112		O 64
-110
404Oklahoma+1 Markets-6½
-108		U 64
-110
06:30 PM
407New Mexico State+28
-113		O 47
-110
408Missouri+1 Markets-28
-107		U 47
-110
07:00 PM
331Syracuse+10
-110		O 55½
-110
332Wake Forest+1 Markets-10
-110		U 55½
-110
07:00 PM
391USC-2
-115		O 74
-110
392UCLA+1 Markets+2
-105		U 74
-110
08:00 PM
373UAB+15
-115		O 52½
-110
374LSU+1 Markets-15
-105		U 52½
-110
08:00 PM
379Colorado State+22½
-110		O 44
-112
380Air Force+1 Markets-22½
-110		U 44
-108
08:00 PM
389Colorado+30½
-108		O 63½
-110
390Washington+1 Markets-30½
-112		U 63½
-110
08:45 PM
383San Jose State-3
-110		O 51
-110
384Utah State+1 Markets+3
-110		U 51
-110
09:30 PM
393Utah+3
-105		O 62½
-110
394Oregon+1 Markets-3
-115		U 62½
-110
09:30 PM
425Fresno State-22
-112		O 54½
-110
426Nevada+1 Markets+22
-108		U 54½
-110
10:00 PM
427UNLV-10
-110		O 59
-110
428Hawaii+1 Markets+10
-110		U 59
-110
 
Last edited:
I grabbed a little Liberty at open at -8, then waited hoping it would go down, it did not.
Gonna wait to see how high WVU will rise, would love to get +9
 
Not a real appealing card at 1st glance. They came way high at open with the ncst/ville total but it has been bet way down closer to where it should be. I dunno if it got pushed down cause Cunningham or not, regardless of his health that number was high.
 
I been waiting for the usc/ucla game for a month w a eye on hoping I could get ucla as a dog, might have taken them blowing that game last week to get it there but they are small dogs and I think they better than usc, even tho last week gave me some doubts. If they couldn’t stop Arizona passing game game they effect the Trojans?
 
2daBank said:
I been waiting for the usc/ucla game for a month w a eye on hoping I could get ucla as a dog, might have taken them blowing that game last week to get it there but they are small dogs and I think they better than usc, even tho last week gave me some doubts. If they couldn’t stop Arizona passing game game they effect the Trojans?
Click to expand...

I think almost everyone is going to have a hard time stopping USC's passing. But does USC also have difficulty stopping UCLA? Last week UCLA had three drives totaling 143y end in zero pts (fumble A20, missed FG from A27, SOD A29)

UCLA, first column is rushing yards, second column is passing yards, plays, total yards and ypp.

09/24/22@ ColoradoGrassW 45-17249266635158.17
09/30/2215 WashingtonGrassW 40-32184315724996.93
10/08/2210 UtahGrassW 42-32203299615028.23
10/22/22@ 12 OregonTurfL 30-45186262694486.49
10/29/22StanfordGrassW 38-13324199745237.07
11/05/22@ Arizona St.GrassW 50-36402169625719.21
11/12/22ArizonaGrassL 28-34220245764656.12
 
s--k said:
I think almost everyone is going to have a hard time stopping USC's passing. But does USC also have difficulty stopping UCLA? Last week UCLA had three drives totaling 143y end in zero pts (fumble A20, missed FG from A27, SOD A29)

UCLA, first column is rushing yards, second column is passing yards, plays, total yards and ypp.

09/24/22@ ColoradoGrassW 45-17249266635158.17
09/30/2215 WashingtonGrassW 40-32184315724996.93
10/08/2210 UtahGrassW 42-32203299615028.23
10/22/22@ 12 OregonTurfL 30-45186262694486.49
10/29/22StanfordGrassW 38-13324199745237.07
11/05/22@ Arizona St.GrassW 50-36402169625719.21
11/12/22ArizonaGrassL 28-34220245764656.12
Click to expand...

I don’t think Usc has a chance in hell of stopping ucla, that why I been eyeing this game to bet bruins for a month. Just saying letting De Laura throw for 315 in itself might not be super alarming but 22-28 is prob the most efficient 315 he has thrown for all year, that a bit scary knowing what they up against here. Obviously there gonna be a ton of points in this game so that not the issue, it just the efficiency at which zona did it concerning as game prob comes down to who can just get a stop or 2 in the 2nd half.
 
The TCU line at Baylor of -3 make sense I suppose but I've watched a lot of Baylor and they stink. They can't run it and their D doesn't do anything real well. 11am kickoff, not worried about their crowd. I laid it and I'll be shocked if they rise up and beat the Frogs.
 
2daBank said:
I been waiting for the usc/ucla game for a month w a eye on hoping I could get ucla as a dog, might have taken them blowing that game last week to get it there but they are small dogs and I think they better than usc, even tho last week gave me some doubts. If they couldn’t stop Arizona passing game game they effect the Trojans?
Click to expand...
I lean USC in this one, mainly because no one can stop the USC passing game. USC lost their starting RB, but all that did was allow Brown (freshman RB) to play and he lived up to his reputation and ran wild against Colorado.

For some reason I've thought the UCLA D was better than USC, but the stats are almost the same. They look about even across the board except at QB where I rate Williams far above DTR

But I agree with you the game will probably come down to the last couple of possessions, who can get a stop or a turnover, so I'm in no hurry to bet this one
 
TahoeLegend said:
I lean USC in this one, mainly because no one can stop the USC passing game. USC lost their starting RB, but all that did was allow Brown (freshman RB) to play and he lived up to his reputation and ran wild against Colorado.

For some reason I've thought the UCLA D was better than USC, but the stats are almost the same. They look about even across the board except at QB where I rate Williams far above DTR

But I agree with you the game will probably come down to the last couple of possessions, who can get a stop or a turnover, so I'm in no hurry to bet this one
Click to expand...

I might be higher on ucla d than I should because of one game, it impacted me what they did to Washington in the 1st half. Not sure it should have tho, they been plenty bad other times. I don’t think they can stop usc passing game, don’t think usc can stop them from running. You know how last week we were saying those 70s totals were too high and I think most went under, I actually lean over in this one, I think both teams prob hit 40 here, I might be on over more so than a side which shocking cause once they put them into the mid 70s im usually out. Both these coaches so good at what they do on offense I think I can get down with this over. Maybe 1st half, could be defenses possibly settle in and figure something out at some point but early on I don’t see a stop without a offense shooting them selves in the foot.
 
The thing I would say about potentially betting bruins, I have it in my head I can do a little chase/fade of usc here, I’d like to see them run the table and make it but I have it in my head there no way this defense gonna be able to win out these next 3 against bruins, Irish, pac-12 ship, I guess I could be wrong, kinda hope I am but at same time think there a chance to make money cause I’ve felt pretty confident for some time usc wouldn’t be able to get thru these last 3 when looking at schedule. Just don’t trust that d and figure at some point the offense could stumble a bit. I suppose if I get killed fading them those 3 I can always get it back with Uga in playoff!! Lol
 
aplous said:
The TCU line at Baylor of -3 make sense I suppose but I've watched a lot of Baylor and they stink. They can't run it and their D doesn't do anything real well. 11am kickoff, not worried about their crowd. I laid it and I'll be shocked if they rise up and beat the Frogs.
Click to expand...

I havnt been good figuring Baylor out for several years, I bet them they look awful, I bet against them they kill me. I rode w tcu a lot early, last week I jumped off and wrongly bet texas but think I convinced myself that week after they hit the top 4 that was their ceiling and it was fade mode for me here on out. Obviously I know just cause I don’t believe them to be one the 4 best teams (or 10 best for that matter) it doesn’t mean they gonna lose to any these big12 teams who also not among the best teams, so I’m not looking to blindly fade them, there gotta be things bout their opponent i like, I got no idea with Baylor so I’ll prob just leave it alone and wait till I get a shot to fade them where I feel confident, might not come until the playoff. I might be able to get behind iowa st w enough points or whoever they face in big12 championship game, I’d love for it to be a healthy k-st getting another shot cause I think they would beat them. So I hope you cash this one, I’ll be pissed they go and lose a week I don’t fade them! Lol
 
I'm giving Aranda one more chance this weekend as I keep coming back to TCU now on its 9th consecutive game after a week off plus it's a big road bounce back after going to Austin. That was an inexplicable (complete) egg that Baylor laid last weekend. It's as if they didn't even get off the bus. They had been running the ball really well going into K-State and were playing their best ball of the season.

I'm not overly confident. It could be that I'm continually enamored with Aranda and (hopefully) trust him to have his team ready after an embarrassment. Would rather this be a night game in Waco but it is what it is.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I'm giving Aranda one more chance this weekend as I keep coming back to TCU now on its 9th consecutive game after a week off plus it's a big road bounce back after going to Austin. That was an inexplicable (complete) egg that Baylor laid last weekend. It's as if they didn't even get off the bus. They had been running the ball really well going into K-State and were playing their best ball of the season.

I'm not overly confident. It could be that I'm continually enamored with Aranda and (hopefully) trust him to have his team ready after an embarrassment. Would rather this be a night game in Waco but it is what it is.
Click to expand...

I could easily be convinced to be against tcu I just don’t do well whenever I get involved in baylor games, they like my worst team to fuvk w last 2 years, I can never figure out when they gonna be their best, I dunno if it a matchup thing I don’t understand w them or what the hell but it not good for me to bet their games!! Is k-st the team on pace to play tcu in big12 ship? If that the case maybe I rather tcu stay undefeated cause I think assuming Adrian Martinez healthy k-st would beat them in a rematch. That might be best thing, tcu keeps rolling and we get a good price in that game!
 
2daBank said:
I been waiting for the usc/ucla game for a month w a eye on hoping I could get ucla as a dog, might have taken them blowing that game last week to get it there but they are small dogs and I think they better than usc, even tho last week gave me some doubts. If they couldn’t stop Arizona passing game game they effect the Trojans?
Click to expand...
Pretty sure USC will have the home crowd at the Rose Bowl at least.

LA will always be Lakers, Dodgers, USC then everyone else as far as fans go
 
KJ said:
Pretty sure USC will have the home crowd at the Rose Bowl at least.

LA will always be Lakers, Dodgers, USC then everyone else as far as fans go
Click to expand...

I assume crowd isn’t gonna be a big deal either way. Wouldn’t expect it be so loud either team having problems communicating or getting snap off. Only thing I feel pretty confident saying both should score a lot. Im generally not interested in playing overs this high but think they probably sail past 75, think it’s played into the 80s at least.
 
2daBank said:
I assume crowd isn’t gonna be a big deal either way. Wouldn’t expect it be so loud either team having problems communicating or getting snap off. Only thing I feel pretty confident saying both should score a lot. Im generally not interested in playing overs this high but think they probably sail past 75, think it’s played into the 80s at least.
Click to expand...
Can do a 1h/2h chase
 
For Baylor, I usually give the final home game of the season a little more weight than the typical homefield. Not so much the fans or the atmosphere will make it harder on the opposition, but generally I expect the home team to care a lot so long as they haven't checked out.

For UCLA, like KJ says, with USC fans coming in large numbers and the rivalry aspect I don't think the final home game carries much in terms of a motivational angle. Its crosstown rivalry, not much extra motivation to be had regardless of venue.
 
texsn95 said:
Is USF still down to their 4th string qb? If so who is it?
Click to expand...

Considering freaking Tulsa is laying -13 I just assume the situation bad whomever starts. I really have no clue how to mess with that game? Usf has stayed within this number vs a couple the better aac teams (maybe a different qb for those? ) but they also got beat down by 26 against temple! Tough to be excited backing them. I don’t think there any chance I could convince myself to lay -13 w a tulsa team who has 1 conf win and hasn’t beaten any d1 team by this margin (didn’t cover in either their 2 d1 wins).
 
texsn95 said:
Is USF still down to their 4th string qb? If so who is it?
Click to expand...

I read that he would've been 4th string out of fall camp, but he essentially is their 3rd string.

His injury means that true freshman Byrum Brown is in line for his first career start. The three-star North Carolina native has only attempted five passes but threw his first touchdown last week. Da Prato said Brown has all the physical tools to succeed, starting with a strong arm and 6-foot-3, 206-pound frame. Though Brown likely would have been USF’s No. 4 quarterback at the start of preseason camp, Da Prato said he quickly showed his ability to lead.
Click to expand...

AliShaheed said:
Utah went from +3 to small favs at oregon. Any injury info here?
Click to expand...

Two Utes posted about Nix being potentially questionable
 
2daBank said:
Considering freaking Tulsa is laying -13 I just assume the situation bad whomever starts. I really have no clue how to mess with that game? Usf has stayed within this number vs a couple the better aac teams (maybe a different qb for those? ) but they also got beat down by 26 against temple! Tough to be excited backing them. I don’t think there any chance I could convince myself to lay -13 w a tulsa team who has 1 conf win and hasn’t beaten any d1 team by this margin (didn’t cover in either their 2 d1 wins).
Click to expand...
Yeah different qb, got moosed vs Houston, garbage td and drove down the field like it was pitch and catch in the back yard, infuriating.
 
USF football

Vs SMU 17-17 HT, lost 23-41
at Temple, trailed 28-33 4th Q, lost 28-54
at Houston, tied 14-14 1Q, lost 27-42
vs Tulane 17-17 3rd Q, lost 27-42

I need to realize life is better if I don't bet USF football (I had them vs SMU and vs Tulane - lost QBs in both games and failed to cover in games they were fairly competitive before QB injuries)
 
Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS away from home this year:

24-34 +8.5 at TCU
31-41 +9.5 at Ok St
28-37+7.5 at Kan St
14-27 +10 at NC St

Thinking about those games, I can recall all but the NC State game. Actually, that Ok St number, the late line TT would've covered after the QB news was announced the line surged. They were in the games vs TCU and K State at times as I recall.
 
WVU plays good at home, just beat OU, should've covered vs TCU - they couldn't get the stops vs TCU to actually win, but that game was close. Obviously they beat Baylor, but KU upset them in OT back in Sept. Log says WVU is just 2-1 ATS at home as a dog this year, but knowing how the TCU game ended, they should be 3-0 ATS.
 
I'm wondering if the ULL-FSU game is going to play a role for the FSU - FL game next week given Napier's familiarity with the roster of ULL, he basically gets to see what works and what doesn't knowing his former players strengths and weaknesses against FSU.

I thought FSU could be playing a "B" game last week off the Miami win, but they dominated Cuse instead. Is FSU ever vulnerable for a let down game? I am generally not a believer in this ULL team, just thinking of situations. Again, I think I may be trying to find angles for Gators next week vs them.
 
Check Rutgers' home games. Great 1H vs Michigan (led at HT). Beat IU (as they should have), lost a close one vs Nebraska (RU outgained them), Iowa scored twice on D, but RU outgained them 361-277. Rutgers is just off their best offensive game of the season vs FBS. Of course Penn State is off the steamrollering of Mary. Posted somewhere else, Penn State doesn't typically put up big numbers on O vs Rutgers, but Rutgers generally really struggles offensively vs the Nits. Final home game for Schiano and the boys, our favorite try hard team....would like to try to envision a way, just not sure I can trust the Rutgers O, especially given the kind of D PSU is playing right now. Any ideas?
 
Still eyeing Illinois at the Big House. See a pretty evenly matched game even though Illinois has disappointed the last two weeks. Big measuring stick game for Bert's crew which I think they get up for. In their 3 dog roles this year, ILL won 2 outright and we all know the loss to IU was misleading. I don't trust the Michigan O if they can't just run people over, don't think ILL gets run over.
 
Temple always seems like too weak of a team to get behind, but they aren't really that bad lately, especially now that the O is coming around. Vs the AAC Cincy has beat ECU by 2, beat Navy by 10, lost to UCF by 4, beat SMU by 2, beat USF by 4, beat Tulsa by 4. How bunch of close games, some vs not very good teams. It could just end up being a bad matchup for Temple as they have done their damage against bad teams like Houston and USF the last two weeks. Just looks like an awfully big number given what UC has done lately, but I suppose it might be that way for a reason?
 
Tough run for Navy...OT win in home finale vs Temple, physical game at Cincy, track meet with Notre Dame, now travel to play UCF. Academy kids are built for challenges though. Navy beat UCF last year, I'm sure that will have the Knights attention. Probably a bad time to think about Navy. The prior games have been kind of close, even when Navy wasn't that good and UCF went 13-0 and 12-1
 
s--k said:
Still eyeing Illinois at the Big House. See a pretty evenly matched game even though Illinois has disappointed the last two weeks. Big measuring stick game for Bert's crew which I think they get up for. In their 3 dog roles this year, ILL won 2 outright and we all know the loss to IU was misleading. I don't trust the Michigan O if they can't just run people over, don't think ILL gets run over.
Click to expand...

I really don’t understand why Michigan been content just bludgeoning these cupcakes all year? I’d think it woulda made a lot more sense for them to at least work on the passing game some! Maybe they just saving it but sure would have been nice to seen it in action a few times leading into this game and the big 1 next week. I really don’t think Illinois gonna be able to score, doesn’t mean they won’t cover but gonna have to be on the d. I can’t play it so not gonna dig into, think I’d lean under if I could.
 
2daBank said:
I really don’t understand why Michigan been content just bludgeoning these cupcakes all year? I’d think it woulda made a lot more sense for them to at least work on the passing game some! Maybe they just saving it but sure would have been nice to seen it in action a few times leading into this game and the big 1 next week. I really don’t think Illinois gonna be able to score, doesn’t mean they won’t cover but gonna have to be on the d. I can’t play it so not gonna dig into, think I’d lean under if I could.
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I think both teams will have trouble scoring. The pts and the Under are attractive.

Running is what Michigan is good at. McCarthy full time at QB was supposed to make the passing O an improvement, I don't see it. So to me, it seems like Michigan has mostly leaned on what it does well, what Harbaugh at his core wants them to be and frankly what worked for them last year. I think I looked back a few weeks ago and a couple power ratings had this line at about 11 I believe? So getting an extra TD now, sure Illinois losing two in a row they were favored in is the reason, but honestly that does not negatively impact who I thought they were or are. Illinois was always kind of that team we wondered how good they were and just when everybody bought in, they started slipping up, but we knew they could or would probably lose some games. Their 7-1 team was good, not great. I still think their 7-3 team is the same, good, not great. Michigan has a lot of great qualities, but perhaps has some vulnerabilities that we've seen in spots that haven't fully been exposed over the course of 4 quarters.
 
s--k said:
I really don't get the Duke - Pitt line. Aren't these teams fairly even, maybe Duke is even better?
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Pitt defense is unquestionably the best unit on the field. I understand your thoughts, my 1st reaction was def look to take the points w duke. My big concern w duke is the run game fuels their offense, even the qb is as much runner as he is thrower, I think their offense is gonna have a very tough time moving the ball on pitt, pretty confident the pitt front 7 is gonna totally control this game. I don’t much care for Slovis but I think this a defense he could actually have success against. Whether it close or not might come down to how real is duke run d? They rated incredibly high stopping the run but I’m not sure if they can stop Abanikanda and Pitt run game or not? Pitt so stubborn I doubt they will just come out throwing like they prob should, if duke getting them into 3rd and obvious pass downs they have a better chance. I’m kinda torn on a Pitt point output I feel comfy with but I’m super confident in saying I think duke will struggle to score 20.
 
s--k said:
I think both teams will have trouble scoring. The pts and the Under are attractive.

Running is what Michigan is good at. McCarthy full time at QB was supposed to make the passing O an improvement, I don't see it. So to me, it seems like Michigan has mostly leaned on what it does well, what Harbaugh at his core wants them to be and frankly what worked for them last year. I think I looked back a few weeks ago and a couple power ratings had this line at about 11 I believe? So getting an extra TD now, sure Illinois losing two in a row they were favored in is the reason, but honestly that does not negatively impact who I thought they were or are. Illinois was always kind of that team we wondered how good they were and just when everybody bought in, they started slipping up, but we knew they could or would probably lose some games. Their 7-1 team was good, not great. I still think their 7-3 team is the same, good, not great. Michigan has a lot of great qualities, but perhaps has some vulnerabilities that we've seen in spots that haven't fully been exposed over the course of 4 quarters.
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I don’t disagree with any of that. Illini losses don’t change how I viewed them all year either.
 
2daBank said:
Pitt defense is unquestionably the best unit on the field. I understand your thoughts, my 1st reaction was def look to take the points w duke. My big concern w duke is the run game fuels their offense, even the qb is as much runner as he is thrower, I think their offense is gonna have a very tough time moving the ball on pitt, pretty confident the pitt front 7 is gonna totally control this game. I don’t much care for Slovis but I think this a defense he could actually have success against. Whether it close or not might come down to how real is duke run d? They rated incredibly high stopping the run but I’m not sure if they can stop Abanikanda and Pitt run game or not? Pitt so stubborn I doubt they will just come out throwing like they prob should, if duke getting them into 3rd and obvious pass downs they have a better chance. I’m kinda torn on a Pitt point output I feel comfy with but I’m super confident in saying I think duke will struggle to score 20.
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Maybe I shouldn't take out the Virginia game, but Virginia hasn't been good vs most anyone this year. So I see Pitt's games vs Cuse and UNC and LV and I'm just kind of like...meh. Now, I may not be giving those opponents, notably UNC and LV the credit they deserve for making Pitt look meh. I know Pitt covered the 1H vs UNC and then UNC blew them out 2H. I can't remember the LV game as I didn't watch, that game was close also until the 2H or 4th Q? UNC O going to do that to a lot of team. Maybe it is too long ago now to be relevant, but VT O was pretty good on Pitt D too.
 
s--k said:
Maybe I shouldn't take out the Virginia game, but Virginia hasn't been good vs most anyone this year. So I see Pitt's games vs Cuse and UNC and LV and I'm just kind of like...meh. Now, I may not be giving those opponents, notably UNC and LV the credit they deserve for making Pitt look meh. I know Pitt covered the 1H vs UNC and then UNC blew them out 2H. I can't remember the LV game as I didn't watch, that game was close also until the 2H or 4th Q? UNC O going to do that to a lot of team. Maybe it is too long ago now to be relevant, but VT O was pretty good on Pitt D too.
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I don’t think ya should even look at the unc game, that just a totally different team/offense. I dunno, I watch a ton of acc and just feel like duke offense gonna have a incredibly tough time with pitt d: the teams who give pitt d problems are mostly ones who can attack their secondary down the field, duke offense just isn’t that, they more a side to side offense who spreads ya to find rush lanes and dink and dunk a lot, I’m pretty confident pitt front 7 will totally shut this down. I’d say cuse a good comparison except their qb didn’t play that game, I don’t think it would have changed much tho and to me the duke offense similar with Leonard being kinda like Schrader and cuse not attacking down the field w passing game much like I rarely see duke do. It all about matchups for me when I cap pitt d, I feel like I have a lot of success knowing the kind of team they struggle w and the kind their front 7 takes over against. Im super confident saying pitt front 7 gonna be a nightmare for duke.

I wish I had a better idea wtf pitt offense was gonna do, that where I’m struggling with this game. If pitt oc and head coach had any guts they would come out throwing as I think Slovis would have success doing that, they won’t do that tho, they will bang their back into the line trying to establish the run then hope skovis can make plays on 3rd down if that don’t work, then they will struggle cause duke will bring pressure and Slovis will suck. Think I just told myself what prob gonna happen, I should trust pitt to be pitt and not attack the weakness! Long as their d holding duke down they will continue trying to run. So it just comes down to if duke highly ranked run d can limit the pitt run game? I’m not real sure cause feel like they havnt really faced many rushing attacks similar to pitt. I think I’m leaning more under than anything tho.
 
49.5 def feels high to me. I have a very tough time seeing duke/pitt play higher than low to mid 20s. If pitt covers I’d think it cause they hold duke to less than 17 points.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think Usc has a chance in hell of stopping ucla, that why I been eyeing this game to bet bruins for a month. Just saying letting De Laura throw for 315 in itself might not be super alarming but 22-28 is prob the most efficient 315 he has thrown for all year, that a bit scary knowing what they up against here. Obviously there gonna be a ton of points in this game so that not the issue, it just the efficiency at which zona did it concerning as game prob comes down to who can just get a stop or 2 in the 2nd half.
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USC defense is dogshit

Even an average defense then they would be cooking.
 
B.A.R. said:
USC defense is dogshit

Even an average defense then they would be cooking.
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Bruins hung 62 on them last year, has usc d gotten any better since then? Prob not much. I really think chip and Lincoln both gonna have field days w the offenses, everything they draw up should work! One these rare games I find fun even tho I prefer defense. Every now and again a 100+ point arcade game can be exciting I guess. This sure feels like it has that potential to me.
 
Wyoming good comeback team, 5 come-from-behind wins including 4 when they trailed by 10-14 pts and are 4-0 in games decided by 7 pts or less
 
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