Week 11 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Tough week last week at 7-8, bringing the year long total to 73-71. My goal is always 60%, but usually by the end of the year, I've got an "adjusted" goal, and this year it's to get to a positive endeavor, which I think is something like 52.3%? For me, since I've laid juice of -115 a lot more than -105, it's probably a little higher than that. We'll see.

As for the games last week, the wins were all blowouts, or never seriously in doubt, but all that did was keep me focused on the ones that lost, and there were a couple of tough beats (Memphis and Missouri were a couple), but there were some clunkers as well(looking at you, Todd Centaio). For the first time in awhile I mentioned some close calls that I decided not to write up, and naturally those went 9-4.

Before I get started on this week, I'd like to make one quick comment on the Tennessee/Georgia game. That line made it all the way up to 10 before kickoff, and Georgia covered because they played what appeared to me to be a 90-95 percentile game for them, while Tennessee played to about a 20% percentile game for them. Not sure if people would agree with that assessment, but that's what it appeared to me. One of the things I mentioned in the writeup was that I would never want to lay that many points with Georgia because of the severe risk of a back door. You would need to be up more than 17(as it turned out) to be safe from a back door, which we all agree Tennessee is eminently capable of, and would almost have to be assumed late. It turned out that Hooker was so off that he missed throws even in the low pressure back door environment, but even in a case where Georgia completely dominated the game, there Georgia backers were, sweating out the potential back door. When a team dominates another as severely as Georgia did in that game, the spread should be a distant memory. In my opinion, the fact that Georgia still had to sweat out a back door in that instance tells me that line was too high.

On to this week. Starting a bit earlier than normal due a trip this weekend to hang out with some buddies in Dallas. Still out of town now, but about to drive home, so I'll have a couple here this morning and then more throughout the day today.

Navy +16 WIN
UConn +14.5 WIN
Pitt -4.5 WIN
Purdue +6.5 WIN----Unfortunately I had this one nailed. Illini really failed the seize the moment.
Arkansas +4 WIN ---Even without Jefferson.
Missouri +21 LOSS---Yikes. Had I known about Drinkwitz shooting his mouth off in June, I probably would have hesitated at that one.
Rutgers +10 WIN
North Texas +6 LOSS: Not sure what happened there. UNT was up late into the third and then it all fell apart.
Louisville +7 LOSS---Naturally Cunningham gets hurt
Tulane ML -121 LOSS Green Wave could not stop the run.
Kansas +3.5 LOSS. This was a bad handicap. Kansas hit their bogie for the year by getting bowl eligible last week. Thought Leipold would coach em up.
Mississippi State +17 LOSS---And I was lucky it was that close.
Iowa State -1.5 LOSS 5, count 'em 5 turnovers, and a dropped bomb with 3 mins left that would have won it(probably). Tough one there.
Florida State -7 WIN Finally Stopped the bleeding


7-7

1. Navy +16(+115) v Notre Dame: This game is being played in Baltimore, so it's a bit of a risk since ND has been very good away from home. Of course, they were terrible at home all year, but got rid of that bugaboo last week, so maybe the same paradox happens this week. This line is falling, but I got it last night at 16, and I think it might get there again. It opened at 17.5...should have grabbed it then. I would play it probably down to 14, definitely 15. This is a bad spot for Notre Dame, as they are coming off the game of the year for them, and a fantastic performance as they dominated Clemson for 4 quarters. I laid off that game last week because ND had been so bad at home, but the handicap was in favor of the Irish. Navy has been good to me this year, and the main reason for that has been their unexplainable prowess at stopping the run, and that includes just about everyone they've played. This is in sharp contrast to their pass defense, which is terrible, but Notre Dame can't throw it and to their credit they have no interest in bothering to try. ND definitely has a powerful run attack, but Navy will compete against them, and if Notre Dame has proven anything, it's that they can't be trusted as a sizable favorite against a perceived overmatched opponent. If Stanford and Marshall can beat them(not to mention Cal getting screwed out of a possible win early in the year), Navy can certainly stay within this number when the possessions will likely be severely limited.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @UConn +14.5 v Liberty: I always hesitate to fade Hugh Freeze and the Flames. They've lost only one game all year, which was by a point to Wake, and they look like a top 15 team statistically on both sides of the ball. Freeze has been mostly an ATS machine at Liberty, but the one area that they've been vulnerable is when they are a sizable favorite. For example, this year they've screwed around and failed to cover against UMass, Akron, Southern Miss and most shockingly, they snuck out with a one point victory at home against Gardner Webb a few weeks ago. UConn looks a little bit overmatched on paper, but when you look a little closer, I think they'll compete on the defensive side of the ball as Liberty's best offensive player, the RB Hunter is probably not going to play in this one, and the Huskies have been very good on defense in recent weeks. They are also sitting at 5 wins, so they'll be playing their guts out from this point forward to get to a bowl game, and they look to me like they might have success running the ball, because that's the only phase that Liberty has had some issues with, though they completely shut down a great Arkansas rushing attack last week. The fact that they did that is actually another reason for the value here because Liberty is coming off that emotional high and following it up with a game they've assumed they'll roll in since they noticed it on the schedule. Uconn couldn't be asking for a better time to catch the Flames, and their recent history suggests that they are vulnerable to a lackluster effort in games that they're favored big. Mora has gotten the Huskies to play well at home lately, as they've beaten Fresno and BC outright and took care of business when they were supposed to against UMass. Good spot for the Huskies here.

 

[2daBank]

The thing bout your vols/Uga assessment id day there was a reason vols played 20% as you say and it directly involved the Uga d. I didn’t have any action on it either way but I’d say Uga could have easily won that game by 20+ if they so desired, Kirby wasn’t the conservative person he naturally is. I’m not trying to say which way was a good or bad play but I’d agree Uga at home is absolutely at least 10 points better than the vols (or prob anyone for that matter) so I don’t think the spread was high just cause there was the potential for the back door cause I think it just as easily coulda been 34-7! Vols didn’t throw for 200 total yards or run for 100, they were utterly dominated. Honestly part the advantage I thought Uga had was getting to see how bama choose to play d against vols and realizing they needed to do something different. Kirby might have been his lame conservative self that kept Uga from scoring what I think they could have but he was aggressive when it came to his d and attacking vols offense which was obviously the right thing. If they played again on a neural saying this spread in Athens was high is implying I can get Uga-7 or less? I’m taking Uga every time.

That just what I saw, no bias either way as I avoided that game and the bama/vols few weeks prior cause I really wasn’t sure how to line them: I’m gonna assume you played vols vs bama also? I don’t recall I just thought this past week it seemed to me the ppl who were on vols vs bama played them vs Uga amd vice versa. If that true my question is did you think vols were really the better team vs bama? If I had to go back now amd make another line for that game after watching id say bama-3ish woulda been more correct than the -7 it was. After last week with hindsight I’d say -7 for Uga at home was def short. Not judging either way anyone played it; as I said I didn’t think I had a good feel so I didn’t play it either way, it just seems much easier to cap and line now that I’ve seen them both! Lol. I could still be wrong, sometimes it happens even with the benefit of hindsight!

 

[2daBank]

I suck at situational capping but I’d say if there ever a spot it makes sense it be fading liberty off the arky win and another power 5 on deck next week. Can’t imagine a better week to have a letdown, look ahead, take it a little easy cause they know they prob can moment and next thing they know they in a way closer game than they expected late: dunno if I be on it but ucon certainly seems like only side to play.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I suck at situational capping but I’d say if there ever a spot it makes sense it be fading liberty off the arky win and another power 5 on deck next week. Can’t imagine a better week to have a letdown, look ahead, take it a little easy cause they know they prob can moment and next thing they know they in a way closer game than they expected late: dunno if I be on it but ucon certainly seems like only side to play.

Yep. I forgot to mention that Liberty has the in state big brother next week too.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Pitt -4.5 @Virginia: I'm a little concerned about Pitt RB Isreal Abandakanda being questionable for this game, but ultimately, I'm sure that they've got other soli running backs lying around over there, an even if they don't, the Panthers airing it out a little more probably wouldn't be a bad thing, as their conservatism on offense is sometimes their own worst enemy. The Tony Elliott era, to be kind, has gotten off to an uneven start. In truth, it's been a disaster, and I'm surprised that UVa has been able to hang in their games recently. The offense has been an unmitigated disaster, despite the fact that they have a guy playing QB who was arguably the best QB in the ACC last year. All 3 of their top WRs are questionable, and the only reason they had some success last week on offense is becuase they had North Carolina's defense on the other side of the line of scrimmage. This week they'll be playing a Pitt defense that will undoubtedly dominate their horrific offensive line, so the UVa offense will revert to incompetence, likely producing a sub 300 yard output. The Virginia defense has been good this year, keeping them in games, but at some point the bottom is going to drop out of this season and I think Pitt might be the team to do it to them. There haven't been a lot of opportunities to back Pitt as a road favorite...they've only ben in the role once when they covered at Western Michigan in September, but Pat Narduzzi is 10-1 in that role since 2019. It's a relatively short spread, and Virginia has shown absolutely zero ability to actually pull out a win against a competent team. Look for Armstrong to get sacked 6 or 7 times in this on the way to a comfortable Pitt win.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Purdue +6.5 @Illinois: This is an interesting one, and if the key was to handicap who will dominate in the stats, you'd have to give Illinois the edge because they've outgained every team on their schedule, and done it by an average of 181 yards. The closest anyone has come in the box score surprisingly is Indiana who they outgained by 83. Having said that, despite dominating people in the box score, they've underachieved on the scoreboard virtually every week. Why? Because they can't score TDs in the red zone, and they choose not to throw the ball downfield, even against opponents that they would probably have success doing it against. They've been good against the spread because they've been underdogs with that defense, but as a favorite, their inability to score TDs in the red zone has allowed teams to stick around. Bielema also is more than content to just take the air out of the ball when they are ahead, and it's resulted in games like Minnesota, in which they outgained the Gophers by almost 300 yards but won by only 12. Last week, they outgained Michigan State by 150 yards but because they had a couple lapses defensively after 2 punts against the wind that combined for 25 yards, and because they scored 7 points in 7 trips inside the MSU 40, they lost the game outright. Chances are that they'll take care of business again in the box score this week, but can they cover 7, especially since their incompetent punter is likely to shank a couple more into the wind? Also, what happens if Purdue gets their act together after two terrible weeks and moves the ball? Purdue is terrible stopping the pass, but Illinois doesn't want to throw the ball, and they will probably try to keep the ball on the ground with another forecast for wind. Chase Brown is a great tailback, but if teams gear up to stop him, they can, and I don't see an edge for Illinois' ground game against the Purdue defense. IMO, it's not a good matchup for the Illini at this spread. Let's also not forget that Jeff Brohm is an absolute ace at covering as a road dog, and he took it on the chin in that role a couple weeks ago.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Arkansas +4 v LSU: This is an obviously good spot for Arkansas here. LSU is coming off their best win since they won the title a couple years ago, and Arkansas is probably spitting nails after getting embarrassed by a good Liberty team last week. No chance of the fans not being fired up for this one because they hate LSU, and it's going to be a chance to ruin their hopes of wining the SEC West, which they now figure that they have in the bag. I handicap this one as a virtual dead heat because the Arkansas offense is much better than they showed last week, and I think LSU is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping their running game. Arkansas has been bad on defense, but the one thing they can do is pressure the QB, and LSU has had trouble stopping pass rushes all year. If LSU doesn't follow up last week's effort with another solid one this week, they'll be in trouble because I think Arkansas will give them their best shot. KJ Jefferson appears to be banged up, but he has been all year, and the backup Malik Hornsby is an elite runner, so he would bring a change if pace if that happens.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Missouri +21(-113) @Tennessee: (Another noon game. Lets hope I'm not buried by 1:30 PM Sat). Tough rebound spot for the Vols here, and they have to do it against defense that has proven itself all year. Nobody likes the Missouri offense, but if that defense is healthy(and it is) and they show up, they aren't going to get embarrassed. They are very good in all phases, be it against the run, the pass or on third down. They also do a great job of getting to the QB, which is the one area that the Tennessee offense struggles in(70th). If Tennessee runs the table they should be in great shape to make the playoff, but as a big favorite in all the games they have left, the pressure will be very high for them if anyone hangs around. I just don't see a great effort from the Vols here, and Mizzou has proven to be very competent in the road dog role this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Rutgers +10(-113) @ Michigan State: I should have followed the science and just laid the points with Michigan last week because these Scarlet Knights almost never disappoint when when they are in the two Cardinal spots, fade as a home dog, play as a road dog. They are a road dog this week, so we will not make the same mistake as last week, and we also note that they failed to cover last time in that role, making it unlikely they'll fail twice in a row, In addition to all of that, there's also value in that Michigan State is likely benefitting from their surprising win over Illinois last week, but it was a very deceiving box score They were outgained by 150 yards in Champaign and benefitted from some great special teams luck as well as some shoddy red zone offense and play calling from Illinois. Rutgers will have the edge when their defense is on the field, and that is probably the best unit overall in this game. They are especially tough against the pass, and that's what MSU does better as an offense. Also, although Rutgers has been terrible throwing the ball on offense, Michigan State is easily the worst pass defense they've faced (109th in yards per attempt). The Knights have faced the #1, #3, #6 and #13 pass defenses this year, so that hasn't helped their case in putting up competent looking passing numbers. MSU will represent a major drop in class this week, much like Purdue did for Iowa last week. Maybe the Spartans have turned a corner, but I doubt it, and if Schiano has proven anything, it's that his teams will fight hard on the road.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. North Texas +6 @UAB: I've always had a healthy amount of respect for UAB under Bill Clark, and I've tried to give them the benefit of the doubt now that Clark has retired, but things just haven't been the same this year, even though the Blazers have looked good on paper all year. They've handled the weaker teams on their schedule, but have lost to everyone else, resulting in a 4-5 record on the year. UNT on the other hand has weathered a stretch where they couldn't stop a soul on defense early in the year and have rattled off 4 out of their last 5 with the only loss coming in a 4 point nailbiter at UTSA. This is the second year in a row that they've gotten hot late, and this looks like a repeat of last year when the Mean Green won their last 5. They're 6-4 this year and look to be trending in the opposite direction of UAB. UAB is the favorite here because their defense has fared better than the Mean Green's, but both of these teams are going to move the ball and score on the other. UNT, however, if the team that has been more resourceful and is trending upward, so I'll definitely take the 6 in a game they appear to be more likely team to pull off outright win.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Louisville +7 @Clemson: Coming into the season, it looked like Clemson might field one of the best defensive front 7s that we've seen in college football for awhile. Although defensively the Tigers look pretty good statistically, they really haven't been close to that level all year. They rank pretty high in rush defense, but a closer look indicates that they really haven't played any good rush offenses, and the ones that are good have gashed them. For example, they have held Georgia Tech, Louisiana Tech, Wake, BC and Nc State all to paltry rushing numbers, but those teams rank 87th, 109th, 116th, 131st and 110th in yards per carry, all of them terrible. The only good rushing attacks they've faced are Notre Dame and Florida State, and both were able to top 6 yards per carry. Louisville ranks 26th, which is right between those two, and Malik Cunningham brings an additional dimension as a running QB.Defensively, Louisville has really picked it up on defense lately, culminating in a dominant performance last week in which they held a previously solid JMU offense to less than 200 yards. They're 34th against the run, Clemson's forte, and they are 3rd in the country in sack rate, which will make DJU or Klubnick or whoever Dabo throws out there uncomfortable. Both of those guys were ineffective and especially mistake prone last week against ND, so they might be gun shy this week, which will only exacerbate things. Clemson might be due for a bounce back, but the matchup doesn't lend itself well to that. I think this shapes up as a close one, as long as Louisville is more Dr Jeckyl than Mr Hyde.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @Tulane -121 ML v UCF: I've been against UCF the past 3 weeks, and the least two they've burned me, but this is going to be the 4th tough game in 4 weeks for the Knights, and the 3rd of the 4 on the road. They've won tough back to back games against Memphis and Cincinnati after gettng hammered the week prior to that at East Carolina. Now they have to travel to Tulane, who is in the midst of their best season in who knows how long. Defensively, Tulane has been very solid and they play a tricky defense that nobody has really figured out all year. There's some uncertainty as to who will play QB for the Knights as John Rhys Plumlee is banged up, so they might be going back to backup Mikey Keene, who has experience and has given them a steady hand. If so, he's going to have his work cut out for him against this Tulane defense. His counterpart Michael Pratt for Tulane will likely have an easier time, as UCF's defense has been middling all year, ranking in the 70's on the ground, which should allow Tyjae Spears to have a solid game, allowing the Tulane offense to be balanced like it's been all year. Ultimately these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but UCF is coming in off of some really physical contests and they'll have to contend with a jacked up crowd in one of the biggest games Tulane has been involved in in the last 30 years. I think it's going to be a tough ask for the Knights. Also, don't forget that Tulane is a covering machine at home, 17-5 ATS since 2019.

 

[twinkie13]

10. @Tulane -121 ML v UCF: I've been against UCF the past 3 weeks, and the least two they've burned me, but this is going to be the 4th tough game in 4 weeks for the Knights, and the 3rd of the 4 on the road. They've won tough back to back games against Memphis and Cincinnati after gettng hammered the week prior to that at East Carolina. Now they have to travel to Tulane, who is in the midst of their best season in who knows how long. Defensively, Tulane has been very solid and they play a tricky defense that nobody has really figured out all year. There's some uncertainty as to who will play QB for the Knights as John Rhys Plumlee is banged up, so they might be going back to backup Mikey Keene, who has experience and has given them a steady hand. If so, he's going to have his work cut out for him against this Tulane defense. His counterpart Michael Pratt for Tulane will likely have an easier time, as UCF's defense has been middling all year, ranking in the 70's on the ground, which should allow Tyjae Spears to have a solid game, allowing the Tulane offense to be balanced like it's been all year. Ultimately these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but UCF is coming in off of some really physical contests and they'll have to contend with a jacked up crowd in one of the biggest games Tulane has been involved in in the last 30 years. I think it's going to be a tough ask for the Knights.

Best since 1998 I remember lol

 

[Br@ssknux]

Best since 1998 I remember lol

Absolutely. Shawn King.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. Kansas +3.5 @Texas Tech: When I originally looked at this one, I was interested in Texas Tech because the Red Raiders are still trying to get to a bowl while Kansas has pretty much met their ultimate goal last week by getting bowl eligible themselves. However, I just can't see how Texas Tech is going to get any stops in this game. Kansas is explosive everywhere and ranks in the top 15 in every conceivable category while Tech can't stop the run and can't get off the field on 3rd down. Also, it looks like Tyler Shough will be under center this week as Behren Morton is hurt and Donovan Smith appears to have fallen out of favor. On a per play basis, Tech has been pretty weak this year and they are coming off a very tough couple of games. This just looks like too much of a tough matchup for Tech to assume a cover just because they need it. Kansas has been great ATS this year, and I trust Lance Liepold to keep the Jayhawks focused.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. @Mississippi State +17(-115) v Georgia: I admit I'm taking a bit of a flyer here, but I think Georgia might be asleep again this week Also, Leach is great as a major dog against everyone except Alabama., who for whatever reason the Bulldogs can't score against. Georgia was definitely 100% focused last week against Tennessee, and I think it will be tough for them to be as focused again, and when Georgia isn't focused, they have had some clunker performances. We all remember Missouri, Kent, etc, and Mississippi State obviously can pile up the yards. Also, the MSU defense is really good against the pass, and Georgia tends to abandon the run when they don't need to. It's a little bit of a hunch, but i think the Bulldogs hang in this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Iowa State -1.5 @Oklahoma State: I handicapped this game before I knew what the line was, and when I was done, I said to myself, "Man....Iowa State is going to win this game outright", and then I looked to see how many points the Cyclones were getting. Imagine my surprise when I saw that the market saw the same thing I did. I should mention that I showed Iowa State as the better team here considering the year long numbers, meaning that this was the case even assuming Oklahoma State being 100% healthy. That is obviously not the case now as Oklahoma State is probably the most banged up team in the country other than maybe Stanford's running backs. Spencer Sanders appears to be out, and there is no way the Cowboys can be effective without him against this Iowa State defense which is by far the best unit in this game. OSU is weak defensively, so even the shaky ISU offense should have some success. Iowa State should win this one, even though it's against the covering machine Gundy on his home field.

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. Florida State -7 @Syracuse. Syracuse is another team that is totally banged up, and they are a shell of their former selves from earlier this year. On the flip side, Florida State is one of my favorite teams in the country, and if I did power ratings, I would bet that I'd have them in my top ten. There is not really any category that I follow that they aren't ranked in the top 15-20. Garrett Schrader has some sort of undisclosed injury for Syracuse and there's a possibility he might not play, and Florida State is 8th in sack rate against a Syracuse Offensive line who ranks 125th in sack rate against. In other words, if Schrader does play, he might be right back on the bench, and the backup will be under pressure immediately. The only real Achilles Heel FSU has is a mediocre rush D, but Sean Tucker has never really gotten going for the Orange all year, and their offense ranks 101st in yards per carry. Syracuse is solid on D, but it will be asking a lot to keep this very hot FSU offense out of the end zone for 4 quarters when the offense is probably going to be handicapped.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Might add a couple later on, but this might be it for the week. I'll keep an eye on the thread if anyone has any questions or comments.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Others I'm thinking about, but probably aren't going to make the cut:

Texas, Kansas State, Oregon, South Carolina, Marshall, Vandy and Louisiana Tech.

 

[B.A.R.]

You on it this week!

 

[TahoeLegend]

10. @Tulane -121 ML v UCF: I've been against UCF the past 3 weeks, and the least two they've burned me, but this is going to be the 4th tough game in 4 weeks for the Knights, and the 3rd of the 4 on the road. They've won tough back to back games against Memphis and Cincinnati after gettng hammered the week prior to that at East Carolina. Now they have to travel to Tulane, who is in the midst of their best season in who knows how long. Defensively, Tulane has been very solid and they play a tricky defense that nobody has really figured out all year. There's some uncertainty as to who will play QB for the Knights as John Rhys Plumlee is banged up, so they might be going back to backup Mikey Keene, who has experience and has given them a steady hand. If so, he's going to have his work cut out for him against this Tulane defense. His counterpart Michael Pratt for Tulane will likely have an easier time, as UCF's defense has been middling all year, ranking in the 70's on the ground, which should allow Tyjae Spears to have a solid game, allowing the Tulane offense to be balanced like it's been all year. Ultimately these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but UCF is coming in off of some really physical contests and they'll have to contend with a jacked up crowd in one of the biggest games Tulane has been involved in in the last 30 years. I think it's going to be a tough ask for the Knights. Also, don't forget that Tulane is a covering machine at home, 17-5 ATS since 2019.

I like Tulane myself this week, but UCF's rush D is 27th in the country.

 

[KJ]

I like Tulane myself this week, but UCF's rush D is 27th in the country.

Hard to believe they've only played 3 road games but they've been very pedestrian in rush D in those, even including one at FAU where they still won in a blowout. Louisville even took them apart on the ground in Orlando.

Those stats seem a bit skewed by being padded either against pass heavy teams, blowouts and/or home games. I really don't think the Wave will have much problem moving the ball at all.

 

[inZane]

On a lot of the same Brass, and you're due for a huge week. Hopefully, it's this week!

:cheers3:

 

[GoDawgs1980]

12. @Mississippi State +17(-115) v Georgia: I admit I'm taking a bit of a flyer here, but I think Georgia might be asleep again this week Also, Leach is great as a major dog against everyone except Alabama., who for whatever reason the Bulldogs can't score against. Georgia was definitely 100% focused last week against Tennessee, and I think it will be tough for them to be as focused again, and when Georgia isn't focused, they have had some clunker performances. We all remember Missouri, Kent, etc, and Mississippi State obviously can pile up the yards. Also, the MSU defense is really good against the pass, and Georgia tends to abandon the run when they don't need to. It's a little bit of a hunch, but i think the Bulldogs hang in this one.

Tennessee played 20% and UGA played 90%? That is very debatable. Just curious, how would you rank how Tennessee played at home vs. Florida or vs. Pitt? To me it was a just bad pick and your only chance was a back-door. If you look at the drive charts, it was complete domination. UGA gave them 3 pts at the begin and literally could have hung 50. Afterwards Kirby talked about letting the air out.

Interesting post about teams having 'clunkers'. Which top 5 team hasn't? I would also look at the overwhelming majority of games where they have showed up and how easily they have dominated. Only thing that I agree with is this is a natural let down spot. With that being said UGA has not locked up the East so they need to either show up here or next week in Kentucky.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I like Tulane myself this week, but UCF's rush D is 27th in the country.

I like Tulane myself this week, but UCF's rush D is 27th in the country.

I use yards per carry against. I had them at 50th

 

[Br@ssknux]

Tennessee played 20% and UGA played 90%? That is very debatable. Just curious, how would you rank how Tennessee played at home vs. Florida or vs. Pitt? To me it was a just bad pick and your only chance was a back-door. If you look at the drive charts, it was complete domination. UGA gave them 3 pts at the begin and literally could have hung 50. Afterwards Kirby talked about letting the air out.

Interesting post about teams having 'clunkers'. Which top 5 team hasn't? I would also look at the overwhelming majority of games where they have showed up and how easily they have dominated. Only thing that I agree with is this is a natural let down spot. With that being said UGA has not locked up the East so they need to either show up here or next week in Kentucky.

Thanks for checking in Dawgs. It seems as though defending the honor of your team is very important to you. This was not a criticism of Georgia. Yes, all teams have clunkers, even top 5 teams and Georgia has played below their capabilities a couple times this year. So what? The key is to try to figure out when that might be, and the possibility is there this week. I took a flyer on MSU. When it loses feel free to come back and tell me I’m an idiot.

As for your other point, I will reiterate that 9 or 10 points was too high for that game last week, so I don’t think it was a bad pick. When one team thoroughly and completely dominates the other, the spread should never be in question, and it definitely was in that game. I thought there was a chance a domination could happen but if they play 100 times there will be a lot of times that Tennessee competes. Worst case scenario for me was that a domination, I.e. worst possible scenario happened, and if Hooker makes one more throw I cover. I should not have had a chance at that cover, but due to the spread being as high as it was, it was a possibility. If the game was competitive, which I thought it would be, Tennessee covers. I was wrong and they were dominated so I lost, barely, as it turned out. Ultimately who cares, I lost, I should have lost. Thanks for the feedback though. You brought up some good points. Take care.

 

[2daBank]

6. Missouri +21(-113) @Tennessee: (Another noon game. Lets hope I'm not buried by 1:30 PM Sat). Tough rebound spot for the Vols here, and they have to do it against defense that has proven itself all year. Nobody likes the Missouri offense, but if that defense is healthy(and it is) and they show up, they aren't going to get embarrassed. They are very good in all phases, be it against the run, the pass or on third down. They also do a great job of getting to the QB, which is the one area that the Tennessee offense struggles in(70th). If Tennessee runs the table they should be in great shape to make the playoff, but as a big favorite in all the games they have left, the pressure will be very high for them if anyone hangs around. I just don't see a great effort from the Vols here, and Mizzou has proven to be very competent in the road dog role this year.

Try being a mizzou fan (not that I’m much a fan, lol) the offense is so not just frustrating but puzzling as they have no freaking identity and how long drink been here now? That his side the ball isn’t it? The d has been fantastic, they obviously not Uga d but I do think they can learn from what Uga did and slow vols down. Totally agree mizzou the right side even if it does concern me slowing vols down might still mean 30-34, you would think tigers can score 14 which is bout the number I think we need to feel good about the cover but it does worry me more than d holding them to that 34, lol.

 

[ronnie a]

6. Missouri +21(-113) @Tennessee: (Another noon game. Lets hope I'm not buried by 1:30 PM Sat). Tough rebound spot for the Vols here, and they have to do it against defense that has proven itself all year. Nobody likes the Missouri offense, but if that defense is healthy(and it is) and they show up, they aren't going to get embarrassed. They are very good in all phases, be it against the run, the pass or on third down. They also do a great job of getting to the QB, which is the one area that the Tennessee offense struggles in(70th). If Tennessee runs the table they should be in great shape to make the playoff, but as a big favorite in all the games they have left, the pressure will be very high for them if anyone hangs around. I just don't see a great effort from the Vols here, and Mizzou has proven to be very competent in the road dog role this year.

Agreed Brass. Can the Vols put matter over mind here?
4 of your first 5 write-ups we agree. For that I apologize ha! Best of results to ya Brass! Great posts!

 

[2daBank]

Agreed Brass. Can the Vols put matter over mind here?
4 of your first 5 write-ups we agree. For that I apologize ha! Best of results to ya Brass! Great posts!

I don’t even think it about vols disappointment, mizzou defense is legit, it perfectly reasonable to expect them to hold vols to low mid 30s, and I think that vols playing their best. You would figure mizzou horrendous offense can muster 14-17, vols d ain’t that good. Think a mizzou/under correlates pretty nicely.

 

[splinter65]

Great stuff as always, Brass. Always my first read on Saturday mornings. Thanks for doing this!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Looks like KJ Jefferson is not starting today, which is something I did not think was a possibility. I thought he might get hurt and we might eventually see Hornsby, but obviously I would have needed more than 3 for an Arkansas bet. At the current 6 without KJ I would have probably passed . Tried to get out of the bet but I’m stuck with the original. Just have to hope.

 

[ronnie a]

5. @Arkansas +4 v LSU: This is an obviously good spot for Arkansas here. LSU is coming off their best win since they won the title a couple years ago, and Arkansas is probably spitting nails after getting embarrassed by a good Liberty team last week. No chance of the fans not being fired up for this one because they hate LSU, and it's going to be a chance to ruin their hopes of wining the SEC West, which they now figure that they have in the bag. I handicap this one as a virtual dead heat because the Arkansas offense is much better than they showed last week, and I think LSU is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping their running game. Arkansas has been bad on defense, but the one thing they can do is pressure the QB, and LSU has had trouble stopping pass rushes all year. If LSU doesn't follow up last week's effort with another solid one this week, they'll be in trouble because I think Arkansas will give them their best shot. KJ Jefferson appears to be banged up, but he has been all year, and the backup Malik Hornsby is an elite runner, so he would bring a change if pace if that happens.

My gosh, the ebb an flow of that last couple minutes for us Arky siders!
BTW, still not sold on LSU.

 

[Br@ssknux]

This Iowa State game is a complete abomination. Iowa State is doing everything they can to avoid winning this game. 5 turnovers, shotgun QB sneaks on crucial 4th downs. Just an abomination.

 

[twinkie13]

Looks like KJ Jefferson is not starting today, which is something I did not think was a possibility. I thought he might get hurt and we might eventually see Hornsby, but obviously I would have needed more than 3 for an Arkansas bet. At the current 6 without KJ I would have probably passed . Tried to get out of the bet but I’m stuck with the original. Just have to hope.

Great get!
This is the “line said it all” game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6-1 start and then a terrible 1-6 finish for a 7-7 day. The afternoon window stunk out loud, good Lord. I was planning on going through all of it, but nobody really cares, not even me at this point. I’ll get to the recap when I’m back in town, but on to next week!

 

[ronnie a]

6-1 start and then a terrible 1-6 finish for a 7-7 day. The afternoon window stunk out loud, good Lord. I was planning on going through all of it, but nobody really cares, not even me at this point. I’ll get to the recap when I’m back in town, but on to next week!

Look forward to recaps Brass.

 

[GoDawgs1980]

2. @UConn +14.5 v Liberty: I always hesitate to fade Hugh Freeze and the Flames. They've lost only one game all year, which was by a point to Wake, and they look like a top 15 team statistically on both sides of the ball. Freeze has been mostly an ATS machine at Liberty, but the one area that they've been vulnerable is when they are a sizable favorite. For example, this year they've screwed around and failed to cover against UMass, Akron, Southern Miss and most shockingly, they snuck out with a one point victory at home against Gardner Webb a few weeks ago. UConn looks a little bit overmatched on paper, but when you look a little closer, I think they'll compete on the defensive side of the ball as Liberty's best offensive player, the RB Hunter is probably not going to play in this one, and the Huskies have been very good on defense in recent weeks. They are also sitting at 5 wins, so they'll be playing their guts out from this point forward to get to a bowl game, and they look to me like they might have success running the ball, because that's the only phase that Liberty has had some issues with, though they completely shut down a great Arkansas rushing attack last week. The fact that they did that is actually another reason for the value here because Liberty is coming off that emotional high and following it up with a game they've assumed they'll roll in since they noticed it on the schedule. Uconn couldn't be asking for a better time to catch the Flames, and their recent history suggests that they are vulnerable to a lackluster effort in games that they're favored big. Mora has gotten the Huskies to play well at home lately, as they've beaten Fresno and BC outright and took care of business when they were supposed to against UMass. Good spot for the Huskies here.

Really good bet here and on the Arkansas game. Strong capping.

Another whiff on the UGA line. Gave up a stupid punt return at the end of the half otherwise the game would have been even worse. Surpsingly, Miss st was better against the run last night.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Really good bet here and on the Arkansas game. Strong capping.

Another whiff on the UGA line. Gave up a stupid punt return at the end of the half otherwise the game would have been even worse. Surpsingly, Miss st was better against the run last night.

I usually always back UGA as a road favorite...was just a hunch, and a bad one. Back in that role this week against Kentucky, so I'll be looking for a reason to back them and certainly won't be against them. My luck on the Dawgs has not been great this year. I was on them at South Carolina, but lost on the Mizzou game and now twice in a row the past 2 weeks.