Week 11 Thoughts

[E.T.G.]

I never got around to updating things last week so here is how the last 2 weeks came out.


Wk 10:

Buffalo +105 (2 to win 2.1)
Houston -7 (2.2 to Win 2)
Stanford -30 (2.2 to win 2)
Minny -6.5 (2.2 to win 2)
South Carolina -6 (2.2 to win 2)
Kentucky ML (2 to win 2.6)
Oregon ML (2 to win 2.6)
Arkansas +7 (2.2 to win 2)
UF -6 (2.2 to win 2)

UF to win NC +800 (2 to win 16)

Wk 9:

Temple Under 42.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Auburn +130 (1st half) (2 to win 2.6)
SJST +7 (2.2 to win 2)
Boise -3.5 (2nd half) (2.2 to win 2)
Ole Miss -4.5 (3.3 to win 3)
CMU -3.5 (3.3 to win 3)
Bama -7 (2.2 to win 2)
Colorado St -8 (2.2 to win 2):
Tulsa -23 (2.2 to win 2)
ND -10 (2.4 to win 2)
LSU ML (2.5 to win 2)


Updated Record:

Favorites: 19-20
Dogs: 14-6
Totals: 1-3
ML Parlay: 1-1
Overall: 35-30 +7.47units
SouthCar: 3-1


Must say I am really loving my UF future right now. A win over Bama in the SEC-CG is sending them to the title game, no doubt about that.


I got this up early today because there are a few games I want to lock in early.

I will be on Okie St + points and ML, I don't care what the line is as long as they are dogs

 

[Blue_Chip]

UF is the best team in the country.. I'm convinced

 

[RetroVK]

UF is the best team in the country.. I'm convinced

Certainly playing that way right now.

i wish i had that future ..... the hardest part of the ETG future is getting to the title game , not winning it.

 

[E.T.G.]

Certainly playing that way right now.

i wish i had that future ..... the hardest part of the ETG future is getting to the title game , not winning it.

Agree Kyle, especially if they are facing PSU. The Bama game will be a tougher test.

 

[Blue_Chip]

the hardest part of the ETG future is getting to the title game , not winning it.

Completely agree. While it's not likely but certainly possible, if Bama loses to LSU this week then Bama vs Fla for SEC loses value. You then have Penn St likely going undefeated, USC getting fluffed by the media, and the B12 champ. TT could very well lose to OK State this week, so where the Red Raiders land in the rankings this week might be insignificant. Texas and Oklahoma are likely staying ahead of Fla in the rankings this week, so Fla will need help to get there unless Bama can remain undefeated until December 6 in Atlanta.

 

[E.T.G.]

I see UF coming out around 4 today, the key though to get into the championship with no issues, is of course beating a 12-0 Bama team in the SEC-CG

 

[Blue_Chip]

I see UF coming out around 4 today

I hope so. I think they should be, but I think there's a good chance Texas and/or Oklahoma stay ahead and Fla goes to 6.

 

[RetroVK]

Completely agree. While it's not likely but certainly possible, if Bama loses to LSU this week then Bama vs Fla for SEC loses value. You then have Penn St likely going undefeated, USC getting fluffed by the media, and the B12 champ. TT could very well lose to OK State this week, so where the Red Raiders land in the rankings this week might be insignificant. Texas and Oklahoma are likely staying ahead of Fla in the rankings this week, so Fla will need help to get there unless Bama can remain undefeated until December 6 in Atlanta.

if the big12 champ does not get a bcs title shot then we should never discuss strength of conference in determining who should play in such a game.

 

[E.T.G.]

if the big12 champ does not get a bcs title shot then we should never discuss strength of conference in determining who should play in such a game.

Kyle, I would love to see UF play the B12 champ because it would be an amazing game but with Paterno being 100years old and if he has an undefeated team, there is no way they leave them out over a 12-1 B12/SEC Champ.

It is going to suck for the team left out from those 2 conferences because both champs would take PSU to the woodshed. I think PSU would matchup a lot better with Bama than anyone else

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle, I would love to see UF play the B12 champ because it would be an amazing game but with Paterno being 100years old and if he has an undefeated team, there is no way they leave them out over a 12-1 B12/SEC Champ.

It is going to suck for the team left out from those 2 conferences because both champs would take PSU to the woodshed. I think PSU would matchup a lot better with Bama than anyone else

going to be tough for florida to do a lot of leap frogging. Either they leapfrog some teams this week or after a s carolina win or they have no chance as after s carolina they have citadel and at fsu......

I imagine there would be outrage if after a sec title game and after a big12 title game that the lesser conference leap-frogged the superior conference. of course if it is a two loss missouri who wins the big12 then throw everythign i said out the window

 

[E.T.G.]

going to be tough for florida to do a lot of leap frogging. Either they leapfrog some teams this week or after a s carolina win or they have no chance as after s carolina they have citadel and at fsu......

I imagine there would be outrage if after a sec title game and after a big12 title game that the lesser conference leap-frogged the superior conference. of course if it is a two loss missouri who wins the big12 then throw everythign i said out the window

Well Kyle, the way I see it.

1) Bama
2) PSU
3) If its Texas Tech
4) Florida


Tech loses to Okie Lite or Oklahoma, then UF moves to #3, win out and face the #1 team in the country (if they stay there), a win in the SEC-CG and I think they are in no matter what. Bama has to win out and be #1 though in the SEC-CG cause then no one will deny UF their bid.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Kyle, I would love to see UF play the B12 champ because it would be an amazing game but with Paterno being 100years old and if he has an undefeated team, there is no way they leave them out over a 12-1 B12/SEC Champ.

It is going to suck for the team left out from those 2 conferences because both champs would take PSU to the woodshed.

My thoughts exactly

 

[~Utah]

ETG you have Florida to win the NC

I have Oklahoma (preseason)

Oklahoma vs Florida in the NC

 

[E.T.G.]

ETG you have Florida to win the NC

I have Oklahoma (preseason)

Oklahoma vs Florida in the NC

if that happens, we will have to make a side bet

 

[~Utah]

if that happens, we will have to make a side bet

Possibly, when did u place the Florida bet? Florida was one of the teams I thought about preseason but I thought LSU and Georgia would give them better games. I thought the Vols would be a power. My view on the SEC was way off preseason. I also thought that Oklahoma had an easy schedule :36_11_6:.

Didnt think Texas Tech and Okie St would be top 10

 

[E.T.G.]

Possibly, when did u place the Florida bet? Florida was one of the teams I thought about preseason but I thought LSU and Georgia would give them better games. I thought the Vols would be a power. My view on the SEC was way off preseason. I also thought that Oklahoma had an easy schedule :36_11_6:.

Didnt think Texas Tech and Okie St would be top 10

I made this UF bet right after the LSU game, wish I made it before the LSU game, prob could of got +1000

 

[E.T.G.]

Zona -38.5 (2.2 to Win 2):

Wazzu. is. the. worst. team. in. America

 

[E.T.G.]

Okie St ML, when this comes out for me.This line got banged down early, is everyone going to think that Texas Tech beat Texas who beat Ok St and bring it back up later in the week? I would like to get better # than offered right now so I will wait a little but I am on this game no matter what.

You control a high powered offense by keeping them off the field and shortening the game by running the ball effectively. Ok St can do that with Hunter/Toston where as Texas not so much this past weekend. Crabtree will get his and make plays but so will Dez Bryant who is more dangerous on the big play. Texas is a great win for Tech but I don't see them running the table this year. Ok St is a good team, good teams blow out inferior teams after they drop a heart breaking game. This team is different than past teams under Gundy, they can go on the road and play. I like the versatility Robinson gives the offense as well and they will keep TT off balance with the no huddle. One other thing, even if TT doesn't have a let down this week and they come out fired up, I believe they got Texas at the right time in that stretch (Oklahoma, Mizz, Okie St), if this was game one, Texas probably wins the game. Okie St is in a perfect situation here.

 

[RJ Esq]

The only thing that is going in TT's favor is last year's loss and the revenge factor this year. Remember that after losing to Okie Lite, Mike Leach fired his DC and promoted Ruffin. Since then, the D has been improving and is now very solid. That loss to Okie Lite was the best thing to happen to TT, IMO.

That being said, I'll probably be on Okie Lite +x and maybe a little on the ML.

 

[E.T.G.]

The only thing that is going in TT's favor is last year's loss and the revenge factor this year. Remember that after losing to Okie Lite, Mike Leach fired his DC and promoted Ruffin. Since then, the D has been improving and is now very solid. That loss to Okie Lite was the best thing to happen to TT, IMO.

That being said, I'll probably be on Okie Lite +x and maybe a little on the ML.

Interesting point you make about TT there, wasn't something that bounced right into my mind but I remember hearing that listening to the game this weekend. They are improved on defense, true, but I think they can be had by this offense. Nevada had the closest thing to a balanced spread with a running QB, effective RB's, WR's, and a TE and they gave TT a lot of problems, even if that game was on the road. I really like this Okie St offense in this game, they have a lot of weapons to use and I expect them to come out with a great gameplan.

 

[E.T.G.]

Buffalo -8 (2.2units to win 2):

I was holding out to see if I could get this at even TD but I don't think its going to happen. I jumped on Buffalo last week on the road and they delivered. Now I get them at home in a game where I think they have all the motivation in the world to win. Buffalo is currently tied for 1st in the MAC East, they are 3-1 at home, and they are playing a Miami Ohio team who they have NEVER beaten and if I am wrong on that, they haven't beaten them in the last 10 years. A bowl and a date in the conference championship are still in sights. What exactly does Miami Ohio have to play for in a tuesday night game they have to go on the road for? A big reason why Buffalo won last week was the return of RB Joe Starks who rushed for 180yds on 30 carries and 2 TD.. Buffalo went on to rush for a season high of 277yds last week and 3 TD..Miami has a defense that allows 173ypg on the ground, good for 7th in the MAC. Buffalo QB Drew Willy continues to play stellar and in the end, Buffalo is the better team, they are at home, they have more to play for, they are very well coached, and they haven't beaten MOH.

Buffalo wins by 14-17pts

 

[Timh]

GL this week ETG. I was favorably impressed with Buffalo QB Willy in last week's game vs. Ohio. I thought he really looked good back there, very calm and collected and seems to go the right place with the ball.

 

[HUNT]

Gl this week brother

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks hunt and terp, gl to you guys as well.



Ball St -9.5:

No play yet. Once again, the only way I would play these two weeknight MAC games personally is with the home team, just like the Buffalo game on Tuesday. The first thing that needs to be established in this game, Ball St is currently involved in a beauty contest for the shot at a BCS game and they get this game on ESPN2. Also, similar to last night, the road team has a QB you can't have full confidence in on the road putting the ball in the air while the home team has a QB playing at a very high level. This is the first road game for NoIlly in nearly a month and Ball St has won every home game this year by double digits. NoIlly has a 1-dimensional offense. What happens if they fall down 10-14 points early? They are not going to run their way back into this game. NoIlly has ripped off 3 straight wins in MAC play but all 3 teams are no where near the top of the MAC (BGSU, Tol, MOH). I have to do a little more reading about this game but strong lean to the home team

 

[broadwayjoe]

on ball state myself. nice hit on buff...they jumped out early and miami is not a come from behind team by any means. kind of surprised they got smoked so bad on the outside. i think buffalo will wipe the floor with akron. gl tonight

 

[E.T.G.]

on ball state myself. nice hit on buff...they jumped out early and miami is not a come from behind team by any means. kind of surprised they got smoked so bad on the outside. i think buffalo will wipe the floor with akron. gl tonight

Thanks Broadway. That Buffalo team is playing well and Willy looks great out there creating plays, last time I watched Akron play I came away very unimpressed. As far as the game goes tonight, think I am likely going to be on Ball St, just don't think NoIlly can play from behind tonight and I have to think Ball St tries and forces them to pass with the 3rd string QB on the road.

 

[RetroVK]

gl on ball st tonight mr everything.

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks a lot Kyle...........BALLS -9.5 (2.2 to win 2units)

 

[E.T.G.]

Lean TCU and Maryland on Thursday, both are road teams, I would be shocked if I played both.


UGA-11 (2.2 to win 2)

SC-12 (2.2 to win 2)


Will be playing Ok St at some point, just want to see if I can get more + on the ML.

Played Zona and its up to 41, that still is not high enough.

Have my eyes on couple of dogs

Wanted to play Nevada when the line first came out, redic that its droped to +1 now.

Patiently waiting for PSU to hit 6.5

 

[E.T.G.]

UGA-11:

Towards the beginning of the week I thought UGA might be feeling sorry for themselves but I believe this team actually comes out pretty pissed off. Richt is too good of a coach and his track record on the road in the SEC is too good. UK has no offense at all. They have no play makers and they can't sustain a long drive. If UK gets more than 13 here, it will be surprising imo. UGA hits them with 34-38 points.

South Carolina -12:

Defense will lead the way in this one getting back at Arkansas for the disaster last year. Arkansas is improving as a team and SC has had its problems on offense but Arkansas might have a cure with the last rated defense in the league. Last week Tennessee got 1 sack and that was because Smelley was in. South Carolina leads the SC in turnovers but of the 24, the defense has allowed only 27 points. Last week South Carolina coasted to victory running the ball 44x, I think they open it back up this week. Garcia is good to go, its senior day, and although UF looms, this game is what the team is focused on. SC 34-13

 

[Aztec4Life]

Nice call on Ball State bro! They dominated in every phase of the game!

GL this week!

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

thanks aztec, gl

Updated Card:


Buffalo -8 (2.2 to Win 2)
Ball St -9.5 (2.2 to Win 2)
Zona -38.5 (2.2 to Win 2)
UGA -11 (2.2 to Win 2)
SoCar -12 (2.2 to Win 2)
Bama -3 (2.2 to Win 2)
Okie St ML (waiting on #)


Still waiting on a bunch of games

 

[E.T.G.]

TCU-2 (2.2 to win 2).......Waited this line out a long time I don't think I am going to get my PK or anything and I have class tonight so I don't have all day to stalk this line. TCU speed on defense and their ability to get to the QB will spell trouble for Johnson. I've seen some people try to discount the speed of TCU and that is just flat out wrong, you can't do that. I am confident TCU will shut dwon the run and pressure Johnson and believe TCU is just playing at a higher level right now

 

[STEED]

GL etg with them all..

 

[E.T.G.]

somehow, I find myself looking at Fresno ML tonight. This game is a 5 point move in favor of Nevada? I might be the only person in the country willing to back Fresno tonight

 

[J Galt]

somehow, I find myself looking at Fresno ML tonight. This game is a 5 point move in favor of Nevada? I might be the only person in the country willing to back Fresno tonight

You are dead wrong there. Look at the consensus sites. The line moves are big money (and Dr. Boob) hitting the Wolfpack, not the general public.

 

[E.T.G.]

JGalt - Its all a moot point now, not touching this game.

 

[E.T.G.]

Will use the extra time between the end of work and before I go out tonight to finalize this card for the weekend.

 

[J Galt]

Your initial inclination on this game was right, so if you're not considering going that way, I think you're making the right decision. :shake:

 

[E.T.G.]

updated Card:


Buffalo -8 (2.2 to Win 2)
Ball St -9.5 (2.2 to Win 2)
TCU -2 (2.2 to Win 2)
Zona -38.5 (2.2 to Win 2)
UGA -11 (2.2 to Win 2)
SoCar -12 (2.2 to Win 2)
Bama -3 (2.2 to Win 2)
Okie St ML (2 to Win 2.4)
FSU -4 (2.2 to Win 2)


Didn't have as much time as I would of liked but added Ok St ML and FSU. Probably 1-2 more dogs on the slate