Week 11 in the FCS

[s--k]

Friday, November 7

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Harvard at Columbia	7:00pm	ESPN2
Delaware State at Morgan State	7:00pm	ESPNU

Saturday, November 8

Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Mercyhurst at Saint Francis U.	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Stonehill at CCSU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Duquesne at LIU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Virginia-Lynchburg at Sacred Heart	12:00pm	ESPN+
Yale at Brown	12:00pm	ESPN+
Furman at Chattanooga	12:00pm	Nexstar/ESPN+
North Carolina A&T at Stony Brook	12:00pm	FloSports
New Hampshire at Monmouth	12:00pm	FloSports
Holy Cross at Lehigh	12:00pm	ESPN+
Wagner at Robert Morris	12:00pm	SNP/NEC Front Row
Colgate at Lafayette	12:30pm	ESPN+
Princeton at Dartmouth	1:00pm	ESPN+
Stetson at Marist	1:00pm	ESPN+
Bucknell at Fordham	1:00pm	SNY/ESPN+
San Diego at Valparaiso	1:00pm	ESPN+
Presbyterian at Davidson	5:00	ESPN+
Butler at Morehead State	1:00pm	ESPN+
Richmond at Georgetown	1:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee Tech at Eastern Illinois	1:00pm	ESPN+
Villanova at Towson	1:00pm	MNMT/FloSports
Maine at Hampton	1:00pm	MNMT2/FloSports
Bryant at UAlbany	1:00pm	FloSports
The Citadel at 7 Ole Miss	1:00pm	SECN+
Illinois State at Indiana State	1:00pm	ESPN+
Cornell at Penn	1:00pm	ESPN+
St. Thomas at Drake	1:00pm	ESPN+
Howard at SC State	1:30pm	ESPN+
Southeast Missouri at Gardner-Webb	1:30pm	ESPN+
Wofford at VMI	1:30pm	ESPN+
Lindenwood at Western Illinois	2:00pm	ESPN+
Norfolk State at NC Central	2:00pm	ESPN+
UIW at Northwestern State	2:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee State at UT Martin	2:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Illinois at Youngstown State	2:00pm	ESPN+
William & Mary at Campbell	2:00pm	FloSports
North Dakota State at North Dakota	2:00pm	ABC ND/ESPN+
Murray State at Northern Iowa	2:00pm	ESPN+
Rhode Island at Elon	2:00pm	FloSports/My48
Mercer at Western Carolina	2:30pm	ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at HCU	3:00pm	ESPN+
Eastern Washington at Montana	3:00pm	Scripps/SWX/ESPN+
Texas Southern at Alabama State	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Bethune-Cookman at Grambling State	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Weber State at Montana State	3:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Jackson State at MVSU	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Florida A&M at UAPB	3:00pm	HBCU GO
Prairie View A&M at Alabama A&M	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Utah Tech at Abilene Christian	3:00pm	ESPN+
Southern Utah at Eastern Kentucky	3:00pm	ESPN+
ETSU at Samford	3:30pm	ESPN+
Merrimack at New Haven	3:30pm	NEC Front Row
Southeastern La. at Lamar	4:00pm	ESPN+
Southern at Alcorn State	4:00pm	ESPN+
West Georgia at North Alabama	4:00pm	ESPN+
Central Arkansas at Austin Peay	4:00pm	ESPN+
South Dakota State at South Dakota	4:00pm	ESPNU
McNeese at East Texas A&M	5:00pm	ESPN+
Sacramento State at Portland State	5:00pm	ESPN+
Nicholls at UTRGV	6:00pm	ESPN+
Cal Poly at Idaho State	6:00pm	ESPN+
Northern Colorado at Northern Arizona	6:00pm	ESPN+
UC Davis at Idaho	7:00pm	SWX/ESPN+

Even more games on the exact same time this week, 51 games kick from noon to 3:30...82% of the day on at once. It's pretty exhausting, by the time 7 o'clock rolls around I'm like "WTF just happened" and then kind of crash out. But on the plus side, get to go to bed at a reasonable hour

3 weeks left

 

[carolinablue]

Here are my radar screen plays for this week. Worked out pretty well last week going 6-4 with the losers mainly being the limited plays so solid profit in week 10…

Lehigh
Butler +
St Thomas
Presby
Sac State
Montana State
Central
Ole Miss if the line is pretty much anything under 40.5

 

[s--k]

Did anyone see that William & Mary blk'd THREE punts all for safeties! THREE safeties in a game!! Albany

Tribe’s three blocked punts and three safeties were each one short of FCS single-game records, marking only the fourth time in FCS history that a team has recorded at least three safeties in one game.

 

[s--k]

That Yale - Columbia line move was likely the result of Columbia's primary 2024 and 2025 week 1 starting QB being back. He wasn't great in their first 3 games, but after missing the last 3, his return could've supported belief their O would be better. It really was not. They only drove into Yale territory 3x and one of those possessions started at the C48.

 

[sleepy]

Did anyone see that William & Mary blk'd THREE punts all for safeties! THREE safeties in a game!! Albany

Pretty sure that interim coach for Albany wont be back.

 

[s--k]

Massey

Date	Team	Standing	Scr	Pred	Pwin	Margin	Total
Sat 11.08 12:00.PM.ET	Holy Cross @ Lehigh	# 73 (1-8) # 11 (9-0)	0 0	21 28	27 % 73 %	-6.5	49.5
Sat 11.08 12:00.PM.ET	New Hampshire @ Monmouth NJ	# 33 (5-4) # 17 (8-1)	0 0	28 34	35 % 65 %	-6.5	62.5
Sat 11.08 12:00.PM.ET	NC A&T @ Stony Brook	# 111 (2-7) # 61 (4-5)	0 0	20 38	10 % 90 %	-18.5	57.5
Sat 11.08 12:00.PM.ET	VA-Lynchburg @ Sacred Heart	(2-7) # 81 (6-3)	0 0	7 55	0 % 100 %	-47.5	58.5
Sat 11.08 12:30.PM.ET	Colgate @ Lafayette	# 70 (4-5) # 42 (6-3)	0 0	27 34	32 % 68 %	-6.5	60.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Citadel @ Mississippi	# 66 (4-5) (8-1)	0 0	0 51	0 % 100 %	-50.5	55.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Butler @ Morehead St	# 85 (5-4) # 121 (5-5)	0 0	31 17	87 % 13 %	-13.5	48.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Bryant @ SUNY Albany	# 92 (2-7) # 102 (1-8)	0 0	24 27	41 % 59 %	-3.5	52.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Tennessee Tech @ E Illinois	# 8 (9-0) # 84 (3-6)	0 0	34 17	90 % 10 %	-17.5	53.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Richmond @ Georgetown	# 49 (5-4) # 87 (5-4)	0 0	30 17	87 % 13 %	-13.5	47.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Maine @ Hampton	# 47 (5-4) # 115 (2-7)	0 0	34 20	84 % 16 %	-13.5	53.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Illinois St @ Indiana St	# 20 (6-3) # 53 (3-6)	0 0	33 24	75 % 25 %	-8.5	59.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Villanova @ Towson	# 18 (6-2) # 60 (4-5)	0 0	28 21	74 % 26 %	-7.5	50.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	San Diego @ Valparaiso	# 72 (5-4) # 128 (1-8)	0 0	36 14	96 % 4 %	-21.5	51.5
Sat 11.08 1:00.PM.ET	Bucknell @ Fordham	# 93 (4-5) # 94 (1-8)	0 0	28 31	41 % 59 %	-3.5	59.5
Sat 11.08 1:30.PM.ET	SE Missouri St @ Gardner Webb	# 59 (3-6) # 36 (5-4)	0 0	28 31	43 % 57 %	-3.5	61.5
Sat 11.08 1:30.PM.ET	Howard @ S Carolina St	# 95 (4-5) # 54 (6-3)	0 0	20 34	14 % 86 %	-14.5	52.5
Sat 11.08 2:00.PM.ET	William & Mary @ Campbell	# 38 (5-4) # 90 (2-7)	0 0	34 27	69 % 31 %	-6.5	59.5
Sat 11.08 2:00.PM.ET	Rhode Island @ Elon	# 25 (7-2) # 41 (4-5)	0 0	24 23	52 % 48 %	-1.5	50.5
Sat 11.08 2:00.PM.ET	Lindenwood @ W Illinois	# 63 (4-5) # 98 (2-7)	0 0	34 31	55 % 45 %	-2.5	66.5
Sat 11.08 2:00.PM.ET	S Illinois @ Youngstown St	# 10 (6-3) # 21 (5-4)	0 0	33 31	52 % 48 %	-1.5	63.5
Sat 11.08 2:00.PM.ET	Murray St @ Northern Iowa	# 105 (0-9) # 44 (2-7)	0 0	17 34	11 % 89 %	-16.5	53.5
Sat 11.08 2:30.PM.ET	Mercer @ W Carolina	# 15 (7-1) # 31 (6-3)	0 0	36 31	63 % 37 %	-5.5	67.5
Sat 11.08 3:00.PM.ET	TX Southern @ Alabama St	# 113 (4-4) # 65 (6-2)	0 0	17 34	11 % 89 %	-16.5	54.5
Sat 11.08 3:00.PM.ET	Utah Tech @ Abilene Chr	# 67 (2-7) # 14 (5-4)	0 0	16 35	7 % 93 %	-19.5	51.5
Sat 11.08 3:00.PM.ET	Florida A&M @ Ark Pine Bluff	# 106 (3-5) # 122 (3-5)	0 0	34 24	77 % 23 %	-9.5	56.5
Sat 11.08 3:00.PM.ET	Jackson St @ MS Valley St	# 55 (6-2) # 126 (1-7)	0 0	42 14	97 % 3 %	-27.5	55.5
Sat 11.08 3:30.PM.ET	ETSU @ Samford	# 48 (4-5) # 100 (1-8)	0 0	31 24	73 % 27 %	-7.5	58.5
Sat 11.08 5:00.PM.ET	Presbyterian @ Davidson	# 80 (8-1) # 127 (1-8)	0 0	38 24	81 % 19 %	-13.5	62.5
Sat 11.08	CS Sacramento @ Portland St	# 23 (5-4) # 76 (1-8)	0 0	35 24	78 % 22 %	-11.5	62.5
Sat 11.08	Southern Univ @ Alcorn St	# 124 (1-8) # 119 (3-6)	0 0	20 28	22 % 78 %	-7.5	49.5
Sat 11.08	Princeton @ Dartmouth	# 68 (3-4) # 28 (5-2)	0 0	20 28	23 % 77 %	-8.5	52.5
Sat 11.08	Delaware St @ Morgan St	# 86 (6-3) # 112 (3-6)	0 0	28 29	49 % 51 %	-1.5	58.5
Sat 11.08	Duquesne @ LIU Post	# 82 (5-4) # 99 (3-6)	0 0	28 24	65 % 35 %	-4.5	49.5
Sat 11.08	Southern Utah @ E Kentucky	# 29 (4-5) # 34 (4-5)	0 0	31 28	59 % 41 %	-3.5	58.5
Sat 11.08	E Washington @ Montana	# 32 (4-5) # 3 (9-0)	0 0	21 38	13 % 87 %	-16.5	60.5
Sat 11.08	Furman @ Chattanooga	# 56 (5-4) # 45 (4-5)	0 0	23 31	24 % 76 %	-7.5	54.5
Sat 11.08	Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling	# 101 (5-4) # 97 (6-3)	0 0	27 28	48 % 52 %	-1.5	56.5
Sat 11.08	SF Austin @ Houston Chr	# 13 (7-2) # 107 (2-7)	0 0	35 10	98 % 2 %	-24.5	47.5
Sat 11.08	Cal Poly @ Idaho St	# 51 (3-6) # 37 (3-6)	0 0	28 35	34 % 66 %	-6.5	63.5
Sat 11.08	Incarnate Word @ Northwestern LA	# 40 (3-6) # 123 (1-8)	0 0	45 14	99 % 1 %	-31.5	55.5
Sat 11.08	SE Louisiana @ Lamar	# 16 (7-2) # 30 (7-2)	0 0	28 20	77 % 23 %	-8.5	52.5
Sat 11.08	Stetson @ Marist	# 129 (3-6) # 116 (3-6)	0 0	17 34	11 % 89 %	-16.5	54.5
Sat 11.08	Cent Arkansas @ Austin Peay	# 58 (3-6) # 24 (5-4)	0 0	24 34	23 % 77 %	-10.5	60.5
Sat 11.08	McNeese St @ East Texas A&M	# 78 (3-6) # 91 (2-7)	0 0	31 28	55 % 45 %	-2.5	61.5
Sat 11.08	West Georgia @ North Alabama	# 26 (6-3) # 75 (2-7)	0 0	31 28	55 % 45 %	-2.5	61.5
Sat 11.08	Norfolk St @ NC Central	# 120 (1-8) # 52 (6-3)	0 0	17 40	7 % 93 %	-23.5	59.5
Sat 11.08	N Dakota St @ North Dakota	# 1 (9-0) # 6 (6-3)	0 0	35 27	75 % 25 %	-8.5	58.5
Sat 11.08	N Colorado @ Northern Arizona	# 62 (3-6) # 19 (5-4)	0 0	18 35	10 % 90 %	-17.5	55.5
Sat 11.08	Prairie View @ Alabama A&M	# 88 (6-3) # 109 (4-5)	0 0	27 28	48 % 52 %	-1.5	54.5
Sat 11.08	Wagner @ Robert Morris	# 114 (3-6) # 108 (3-6)	0 0	17 24	27 % 73 %	-6.5	43.5
Sat 11.08	Mercyhurst @ St Francis PA	# 110 (3-6) # 125 (0-8)	0 0	24 21	55 % 45 %	-2.5	47.5
Sat 11.08	S Dakota St @ South Dakota	# 4 (7-2) # 12 (6-4)	0 0	28 20	80 % 20 %	-7.5	48.5
Sat 11.08	Stonehill @ Central Conn	# 103 (3-6) # 79 (6-3)	0 0	17 28	14 % 86 %	-10.5	46.5
Sat 11.08	Tennessee St @ TN Martin	# 104 (2-7) # 35 (4-5)	0 0	12 33	3 % 97 %	-20.5	45.5
Sat 11.08	Wofford @ VMI	# 69 (3-6) # 117 (1-8)	0 0	28 14	93 % 7 %	-14.5	41.5
Sat 11.08	Yale @ Brown	# 27 (5-2) # 71 (3-4)	0 0	31 20	80 % 20 %	-10.5	55.5
Sat 11.08	Nicholls St @ UTRGV	# 57 (3-6) # 46 (6-3)	0 0	24 31	32 % 68 %	-6.5	54.5
Sat 11.08	St Thomas MN @ Drake	# 77 (6-3) # 50 (6-2)	0 0	24 27	38 % 62 %	-3.5	51.5
Sat 11.08	UC Davis @ Idaho	# 9 (6-2) # 22 (4-5)	0 0	28 30	46 % 54 %	-2.5	60.5
Sat 11.08	Weber St @ Montana St	# 43 (3-6) # 2 (7-2)	0 0	14 42	3 % 97 %	-28.5	59.5
Sat 11.08	Cornell @ Penn	# 74 (3-4) # 39 (5-2)	0 0	21 28	25 % 75 %	-7.5	53.5
Sat 11.08	Harvard @ Columbia	# 7 (7-0) # 89 (1-6)	0 0	34 10	97 % 3 %	-23.5	47.5
Sat 11.08	Merrimack @ New Haven	# 83 (3-6) # 118 (4-5)	0 0	28 14	88 % 12 %	-13.5	46.5

 

[s--k]

Sagarin

FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _

HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.93 3.76 4.01 4.03 4.03

10 Harvard 21.78 21.95 22.13 25.18 34.62 @ Columbia 837 89% 8.08 40.30 48.38

90 Delaware State 0.79 -0.44 4.36 -0.49 4.24 @ Morgan State 109 52% 25.91 30.97 56.87


54 @ Abilene Christian 18.23 16.76 17.88 22.56 27.57 Utah Tech 614 86% 33.96 13.44 47.40

55 Prairie View A&M 1.54 1.17 1.16 3.23 6.99 @ Alabama A&M 118 54% 22.78 27.81 50.58

56 @ Alabama State 18.76 17.38 18.04 23.42 28.91 Texas Southern 644 87% 37.17 19.61 56.78

57 @ Albany-NY 3.34 2.38 3.99 3.71 3.09 Bryant 144 59% 23.28 24.88 48.17

58 @ Alcorn State 12.19 10.24 9.15 19.88 29.83 Southern U. 352 78% 33.62 15.89 49.51

59 @ Ark.-Pine Bluff 0.74 0.49 -1.16 2.94 7.67 Florida A&M 109 52% 32.48 19.89 52.37

60 @ Austin Peay 12.79 13.84 10.46 15.65 17.91 Central Arkansas 373 79% 41.05 18.23 59.28

61 Yale 8.16 8.12 8.54 9.65 11.18 @ Brown 238 70% 22.63 27.50 50.13

62 William & Mary 7.32 6.66 8.15 8.86 11.23 @ Campbell 218 69% 24.15 31.79 55.94

63 @ Central Connecticut 10.81 9.41 11.64 12.46 14.71 Stonehill College 308 76% 25.84 19.21 45.05

64 @ Chattanooga 8.43 10.34 5.32 10.74 10.81 Furman 244 71% 32.56 21.53 54.08

65 @ Dartmouth 10.88 10.72 10.46 12.70 15.50 Princeton 311 76% 31.02 19.86 50.88

66 Presbyterian College 15.67 13.09 17.20 20.00 32.56 @ Davidson 487 83% 14.93 44.01 58.94

67 @ Drake 1.37 -1.05 5.40 -0.66 -3.29 St. Thomas-Mn. 116 54% 25.19 26.48 51.66

68 Tennessee Tech 15.34 15.10 16.07 17.78 23.19 @ Eastern Illinois 473 83% 14.91 39.64 54.55

69 Southern Utah 2.63 3.34 0.42 5.39 7.68 @ Eastern Kentucky 133 57% 23.25 29.17 52.42

70 Rhode Island 0.50 -0.30 0.75 1.84 4.12 @ Elon 106 51% 25.05 25.64 50.70

71 @ Fordham 5.40 6.70 2.75 7.43 7.59 Bucknell 179 64% 30.89 24.98 55.87

72 @ Gardner-Webb 8.73 6.13 9.33 11.64 16.61 SE Missouri State 252 72% 34.43 24.07 58.51

73 Richmond 2.99 4.77 3.59 1.41 -1.27 @ Georgetown 139 58% 22.20 25.44 47.64

74 @ Grambling State 4.04 3.69 5.70 2.32 -0.16 Bethune-Cookman 155 61% 29.13 27.00 56.13

75 Maine 11.03 9.47 12.34 13.79 21.24 @ Hampton 315 76% 14.88 36.07 50.94

76 Stephen F. Austin 21.10 19.29 21.08 27.27 35.16 @ Houston Christian 790 89% 11.12 34.37 45.49

77 @ Idaho 0.41 2.27 -4.37 3.16 4.39 UC Davis 105 51% 30.07 26.74 56.81

78 @ Idaho State 5.89 5.42 4.12 8.77 10.82 Cal Poly-SLO 189 65% 32.62 24.59 57.21

79 Illinois State 4.43 4.80 4.80 4.92 6.42 @ Indiana State 162 62% 26.85 31.81 58.66

80 @ Lafayette 8.06 7.34 7.98 9.58 10.42 Colgate 236 70% 32.92 27.70 60.61

81 SE Louisiana 7.77 10.34 3.51 11.80 14.53 @ Lamar 229 70% 18.42 30.44 48.86

82 @ Lehigh 18.95 15.00 20.55 24.09 34.54 Holy Cross 655 87% 32.85 13.23 46.08

83 Duquesne 1.62 2.50 1.50 1.69 1.95 @ LIU Post 120 54% 23.98 25.51 49.49

84 @ Marist 9.61 8.74 7.77 15.09 22.89 Stetson 275 73% 36.52 13.51 50.03

85 Jackson State 20.61 18.12 23.48 24.44 31.45 @ Miss. Valley State 757 88% 17.78 36.09 53.87

86 @ Monmouth-NJ 11.71 11.53 11.92 12.89 16.43 New Hampshire 336 77% 36.40 21.84 58.24

87 @ Montana 22.33 22.08 24.26 23.51 27.00 Eastern Washington 877 90% 40.37 15.23 55.60

88 @ Montana State 29.48 29.83 26.65 36.52 43.11 Weber State 1542 94% 46.23 8.95 55.18

89 Butler 7.72 7.44 5.78 12.39 14.27 @ Morehead State 227 69% 19.84 31.08 50.93

91 West Georgia 3.64 3.44 6.88 1.32 1.34 @ North Alabama 149 60% 21.98 35.45 57.43

92 @ NC Central 21.94 19.33 23.45 26.36 31.42 Norfolk State 849 89% 40.51 16.58 57.09

93 North Dakota State 7.92 7.38 9.92 8.21 7.03 @ North Dakota 232 70% 24.38 29.99 54.37

94 @ Northern Arizona 12.44 11.90 14.40 12.11 11.87 Northern Colorado 361 78% 33.72 20.99 54.71

95 @ Northern Iowa 14.47 13.48 15.95 15.74 16.32 Murray State 436 81% 31.77 17.78 49.55

96 Incarnate Word 17.41 17.38 15.98 23.30 26.22 @ Northwestern State 570 85% 15.63 39.05 54.69

97 @ Pennsylvania 10.97 9.53 14.40 9.58 9.99 Cornell 313 76% 32.61 20.03 52.64

98 Sacramento State 12.21 12.56 10.57 16.22 19.40 @ Portland State 353 78% 20.22 37.08 57.30

99 @ Robert Morris 5.84 5.72 6.43 5.63 5.28 Wagner 188 65% 24.48 19.67 44.15

100 Mercyhurst 4.25 2.72 5.09 6.67 13.54 @ Saint Francis-Pa. 159 61% 13.96 31.35 45.30

101 East Tennessee State 8.22 7.93 8.60 10.10 14.42 @ Samford 239 71% 19.07 36.91 55.98

102 @ SC State 13.53 12.96 15.19 13.70 16.81 Howard 400 80% 36.17 16.03 52.20

103 South Dakota State 3.87 4.65 4.53 3.77 1.62 @ South Dakota 153 60% 20.41 27.41 47.83

104 @ Stony Brook 17.18 17.74 17.38 18.40 21.39 NC A&T 559 85% 43.14 15.53 58.67

105 @ Tennessee-Martin 16.94 15.74 17.64 19.62 23.48 Tennessee State 547 85% 31.24 11.73 42.98

106 @ East Texas A&M 3.31 1.60 4.18 4.16 3.88 McNeese State 144 59% 30.79 28.96 59.75

107 Villanova 4.40 2.11 7.54 4.81 5.98 @ Towson 162 62% 24.91 25.90 50.81

108 San Diego 12.87 10.01 13.73 18.45 30.73 @ Valparaiso 375 79% 15.69 36.63 52.31

109 Wofford 10.81 10.68 10.60 13.54 18.96 @ VMI 308 76% 13.42 29.18 42.60

110 Mercer 5.03 5.85 4.53 6.12 8.78 @ Western Carolina 173 63% 28.48 37.80 66.27

111 Lindenwood 2.08 1.72 4.44 0.65 1.85 @ Western Illinois 126 56% 28.13 32.45 60.58

112 @ Youngstown State 4.99 3.64 1.96 10.27 13.17 Southern Illinois 172 63% 32.66 28.02 60.68

113 Merrimack 4.51 4.40 4.20 6.35 12.47 @ New Haven 163 62% 16.90 29.32 46.22

114 @ UTRGV 5.27 4.97 5.82 5.18 8.07 Nicholls State 177 64% 35.52 18.44 53.95

32 @ Mississippi 48.09 46.47 47.84 57.55 60.68 The Citadel 4019 98% 54.23 -0.87 53.36

College Football Ratings Page

 

[s--k]

Reddit

/r/FCS Sportsbook - FCS Games

11/7: Delaware State -7 @ Morgan State (O/U 56)

11/7: Harvard -30.5 @ Columbia (O/U 50)

11/8: Bethune-Cookman -1 @ Grambling (O/U 56)

11/8: Bryant -2.5 @ UAlbany (O/U 51.5)

11/8: Bucknell @ Fordham -3 (O/U 55.5)

11/8: Butler -14.5 @ Morehead State (O/U 52)

11/8: Cal Poly @ Idaho State -2.5 (O/U 58.5)

11/8: Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay -17.5 (O/U 56)

11/8: Colgate @ Lafayette -6.5 (O/U 55.5)

11/8: Cornell @ Penn -10.5 (O/U 52)

11/8: Duquesne -3 @ LIU (O/U 49.5)

11/8: ETSU -16 @ Samford (O/U 55.5)

11/8: Eastern Washington @ Montana -26 (O/U 56.5)

11/8: Florida A&M -3 @ UAPB (O/U 54)

11/8: Furman @ Chattanooga -7.5 (O/U 55.5)

11/8: Holy Cross @ Lehigh -17.5 (O/U 49)

11/8: Howard @ South Carolina State -16.5 (O/U 52)

11/8: Illinois State -7.5 @ Indiana State (O/U 56.5)

11/8: UIW -22 @ Northwestern State (O/U 54)

11/8: Jackson State -26.5 @ MVSU (O/U 55.5)

11/8: Lindenwood -4.5 @ Western Illinois (O/U 56)

11/8: Maine -19 @ Hampton (O/U 52)

11/8: McNeese @ East Texas A&M -3 (O/U 56.5)

11/8: Mercer -9 @ Western Carolina (O/U 58.5)

11/8: Mercyhurst -13 @ St. Francis (O/U 48)

11/8: Merrimack -14 @ New Haven (O/U 49.5)

11/8: Murray State @ Northern Iowa -14.5 (O/U 51.5)

11/8: New Hampshire @ Monmouth -10.5 (O/U 56)

11/8: Nicholls @ UTRGV -11 (O/U 52)

11/8: Norfolk State @ NCCU -23.5 (O/U 56)

11/8: North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook -21.5 (O/U 56)

11/8: North Dakota State -8 @ North Dakota (O/U 55)

11/8: Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -11.5 (O/U 55)

11/8: Prairie View A&M -2 @ Alabama A&M (O/U 52.5)

11/8: Presbyterian -25 @ Davidson (O/U 56.5)

11/8: Princeton @ Dartmouth -8.5 (O/U 52)

11/8: Rhode Island -2.5 @ Elon (O/U 52)

11/8: Richmond -5.5 @ Georgetown (O/U 49)

11/8: Sacramento State -17 @ Portland State (O/U 56.5)

11/8: San Diego -22.5 @ Valparaiso (O/U 54)

11/8: Southeastern -9.5 @ Lamar (O/U 52.5)

11/8: Southeast Missouri @ Gardner-Webb -8.5 (O/U 56)

11/8: South Dakota State -9 @ South Dakota (O/U 50)

11/8: Southern Illinois @ Youngstown State -0.5 (O/U 57.5)

11/8: Southern @ Alcorn State -10.5 (O/U 52)

11/8: Southern Utah -7.5 @ EKU (O/U 55)

11/8: St. Thomas @ Drake -2 (O/U 52)

11/8: Stephen F. Austin -25.5 @ HCU (O/U 50)

11/8: Stetson @ Marist -21 (O/U 52.5)

11/8: Stonehill @ CCSU -8 (O/U 47)

11/8: Tennessee State @ UT Martin -15 (O/U 49)

11/8: Tennessee Tech -24.5 @ Eastern Illinois (O/U 54.5)

11/8: Texas Southern @ Alabama State -18 (O/U 55)

11/8: The Citadel @ Mississippi -54.5 (O/U 54.5)

11/8: UC Davis @ Idaho -0.5 (O/U 56.5)

11/8: Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian -18.5 (O/U 53)

11/8: Villanova -5 @ Towson (O/U 53.5)

11/8: Virginia U-Lynchburg @ Sacred Heart -58 (O/U 58)

11/8: Wagner @ Robert Morris -1.5 (O/U 46)

11/8: Weber State @ Montana State -31.5 (O/U 55.5)

11/8: West Georgia -8.5 @ North Alabama (O/U 56.5)

11/8: William & Mary -9.5 @ Campbell (O/U 56)

11/8: Wofford -17.5 @ VMI (O/U 49)

11/8: Yale -10.5 @ Brown (O/U 50.5)

/r/FCS Sportsbook - 2025

docs.google.com

 

[s--k]

Connelly S&P+

Harvard 39.3, Columbia 2.7

Abilene Christian 38.1, Utah Tech 18.1

Alabama A&M 27.9, Prairie View A&M 24.3

Alabama State 32.5, Texas Southern 19.7

Alcorn State 34.2, Southern U. 16.0

Austin Peay 34.1, Central Arkansas 22.6

Bryant 27.2, Albany-NY 22.4

Bucknell 31.8, Fordham 23.3

Butler 28.5, Morehead State 20.9

Central Connecticut 28.3, Stonehill 8.5

Chattanooga 29.5, Furman 25.9

Dartmouth 30.4, Princeton 17.3

Delaware State 30.3, Morgan State 28.5

Duquesne 24.8, Long Island 15.6

ETSU 38.1, Samford 18.2

Gardner-Webb 29.8, SE Missouri State 27.1

Grambling 29.0, Bethune-Cookman 27.0

Idaho State 33.0, Cal Poly 28.9

Illinois State 34.7, Indiana State 20.7

Incarnate Word 36.9, Northwestern State 14.0

Jackson State 43.4, MVSU 12.5

Lafayette 31.6, Colgate 23.2

Lehigh 36.9, Holy Cross 10.8

Lindenwood 33.1, Western Illinois 26.8

Maine 33.0, Hampton 19.2

Marist 30.9, Stetson 19.9

McNeese State 30.0, East Texas A&M 25.7

Mercer 37.9, Western Carolina 26.0

Mercyhurst 23.3, Saint Francis-PA 15.5

Merrimack 22.8, New Haven 17.7

Monmouth 37.5, New Hampshire 21.8

Montana 45.1, Eastern Washington 15.5

Montana State 44.7, Weber State 13.1

NC Central 42.3, Norfolk State 15.1

North Dakota State 34.6, North Dakota 22.1

Northern Arizona 34.7, Northern Colorado 21.3

Northern Iowa 33.7, Murray State 16.7

Ole Miss 53.6, The Citadel 0.0

Penn 30.4, Cornell 17.1

Presbyterian 41.8, Davidson 15.0

Rhode Island 30.0, Elon 20.1

Richmond 24.9, Georgetown 21.0

Robert Morris 19.3, Wagner 13.0

Sacramento State 44.3, Portland State 17.9

Sacred Heart 66.7, Virginia-Lynchburg 0.0

San Diego 34.8, Valparaiso 16.4

SC State 32.3, Howard 19.2

South Dakota State 27.5, South Dakota 19.3

Southeastern Louisiana 29.3, Lamar 20.3

Southern Illinois 29.8, Youngstown State 29.0

Southern Utah 32.1, Eastern Kentucky 24.7

St. Thomas 26.4, Drake 23.9

Stephen F. Austin 35.5, Houston Christian 9.2

Stony Brook 38.1, NC A&T 17.4

Tennessee Tech 39.4, Eastern Illinois 11.3

UAPB 27.7, Florida A&M 25.2

UC Davis 31.9, Idaho 28.7

UT Martin 30.5, Tennessee State 17.4

UTRGV 28.7, Nicholls State 16.9

Villanova 29.7, Towson 21.6

West Georgia 32.3, North Alabama 25.2

William & Mary 34.0, Campbell 22.7

Wofford 29.4, VMI 15.1

Yale 32.2, Brown 15.1

2025 SP+

docs.google.com

 

[s--k]

Big Sky


CAA


Ivy


MEAC


MVFC


NEC


OVC/Big South

 

[s--k]

Patriot


Pioneer


SoCon


Southland


SWAC


UAC

 

[carolinablue]

Some of the initial lines are now out at FD just like last Monday

 

[carolinablue]

Home team lines…

Friday
Morgan +6.5 105
Columbia +25.5 113

Saturday
Lehigh -24.5 113
Monmouth-15.5 106
Towson +8.5 113
EIU 24.5 113
Elon +7.5 120
N Dakota +13.5 120
WCU +6.5 113
Montana St -28.5 113
Montana -27.5 113
S Dakota +6.5 106

 

[carolinablue]

Crossed Lehigh off my list as I wanted -20.5 or less

Crossed Montana State off as no value in 28.5 in my view

Crossed Mercer/WCU over off as I was hoping for high 50’s

 

[carolinablue]

Columbia up 2 to +27.5
Monmouth down 2 to -13.5

 

[carolinablue]

WCU up 1 to +7.5

 

[s--k]

Just seeing them now. I'm not ready to take anything. Whatever I would've wanted (both Montana schools) are too high

 

[carolinablue]

Just seeing them now. I'm not ready to take anything. Whatever I would've wanted (both Montana schools) are too high

Yeah no value in my view as well

 

[s--k]

This always happens this time of year, I spend so much time on football and put everything else on hold, I start to burn out and other things start catching up to me. Still committed to football as always, but fighting off lots of distractions.

 

[s--k]

Lafayette WR Elijah Steward missed first game of year last week. #1 WR 2022, 2023, 2024 and this year so far and is 23 receptions away from being school's all-time leader. Not sure what's up.

 

[s--k]

Took Elon at 6.5 having missed the 7.5 which I could've got last night when I was disinterested. Seeing it at 4.5 at Hard Rock motivated me to not wait longer.

Soured on the Pheonix with 2 road losses, the Maine loss was fairly bad, but I am betting that is not a reflection of who they are and more circumstantial in nature. Off a bye now and back how now hopefully allows them to reset and play to the potential they showed earlier in the season. I'm not a URI hater (as there seems to be some in FCS world) - I actually enjoy their team, the problem is they just don't win convincingly with any regularity. Now, they could win by 7 here and that is not convincing either and I'm sunk on 6.5 - but I think there is also an equal chance Elon can win outright.

URI beat Bryant by 21...and Bryant is sometimes ok, but Bryant led 17-14 2Q before Rhody scored 10pts in the final 2min of the 1H and then a 24y pick-six late 4Q enabled them to get the 'better looking that it really was' victory there 38-17 (only were +39 ttl yards). They beat Albany bad, which a lot of teams do, so that is their one convincing win. Home vs UNH...well that 38-27 score is also misleading in the fact that UNH had frequent leads there, but URI took a late 4pt lead and then got a 45y fum ret TD in the final minute for the 11 pt win. URI was only +64 ttl yards there. And Brown, we all know they lost to Brown, they shouldn't have but they did (-4 TOs). Long Island, only leading them by 7 at HT, did win 28-7, but did so with just a 47 ttl yard edge. All these games, for as good as URI should be...they play in a lot of closer than they should games vs teams they are better than.

Elon was 4-1 vs FCS and then their season came off the rails starting with the Nova game, Elon had just taken a 21-20 lead late 4Q and then Nova returns the ensuing KO back to regain the lead and Elon drives down the field and throws an INT from the V16 on the final play and lose by 8. They had a 14-3 HT lead in that one. Nova did outgain them 392-344 (5.6-6.3). Then W&M was a close 5 pt loss on the road, Elon was -1.5 road fav and had a +26 ttl yard edge (5.8-4.7) and similar to the Nova game, Elon led 14-3, but were inconsistent with their O, had some special teams returns set up W&M on short field and some key penalties hurt them as I recall and W&M came back on them. Then the Maine game, and Maine is hot, I just think there is no logical reason why this Elon team that had played so well up that game would lose by 21 and be outgained 231-409 (4.3-6.4) - respect to Maine, but they aren't that good. I'm saying Elon's heads were not in that game.

So here we are, back home in Elon, both teams off a bye and I'm going to assume each team's best. And for Elon what that should mean is the kind of team that was right there good enough to potentially beat both Villanova, W&M and ETSU and who did beat WCU (preDickens return). Nothing against URI, just think this dog will hunt and expecting good game.

 

[s--k]

Montana was -27.5 last night, today I see the customary FanDuel 3 point move to 30.5 and Hard Rock is showing 34.5! I'm down on Eastern Washington as much as the next guy, but man, that is getting to be a lot of pts for a D like Montana has fielded this year. With that said, not taking EWU. Just commenting on line variance from one place to the other.

 

[s--k]

Interesting to look back on the Indiana State games vs both USD and SDSU.

USD outgained Indiana State 376-210 (+166) (4.9-5.0) and had a 190-85 rush yard edge. Indiana State only drove past the USD 43 yard line twice. But USD had several drives stall deep in Ind St territory and they only won 19-14 as 16.5pt road favorites (USD was 1 TD on 5 RZ trips).

SDSU outgained Indiana State 441-228 (+213) (4.8-5.1) and a 162-40 rush yard edge, had a 41:19 TOP edge, held Ind St to just 3-of-11 3rd downs. Indiana State only drove across the 50 3x (actually 2x as one of their TDs came from the other side on a 57y TD pass). SDSU was in Ind St territory all but 1 possession! SDSU was in Ind St territory 11 out of 12 possessions, yet only scored 3x (2 FGs and a TD) - wasn't a RZ issue like it was for USD, but before they even made it to the RZ, SDSU had 3 TOs and SOD 4x in Ind St territory. Man that is a tough one, losing at home as 32.5 pt favorite 12-24!

Not looking it up, but I will assume any downgrade on SDSU PR following that loss is negated by any corresponding upgrade to the USD PR following their win vs UND. Which, could UND have been looking ahead some to their game this week vs NDSU? Perhaps. That performance by the Fighting Hawks is a complete outleir to how their season has gone to this point, trailing by as many as 19. USD got a safety on them, a short field TD and a D score, UND outgained them by 112y. UND actually held the USD O to their fewest yards this year since weeks 1 and 2 (only had 270 ttl yards and 4.7 ypp).

USD had averaged just 22.2 ppg vs MVFC competition coming into last week and if we take out the Murray game, just because it's Murray, vs better competition, USD was avg just 15.5 ppg vs Valley teams. So 26 definitely exceeded their avg and there were certain variables mentioned above that allowed them to do so.

Would believe that SDSU is the play here, but it's tough to swallow those points after the way they have played the last 2 weeks. According to people who watched the game closer than me, Marble's decision making on the throws and on keep/give in the run game was pretty awful. So that creats further uncertainty.

A long way of saying, tough game to bet.

 

[carolinablue]

Montana was -27.5 last night, today I see the customary FanDuel 3 point move to 30.5 and Hard Rock is showing 34.5! I'm down on Eastern Washington as much as the next guy, but man, that is getting to be a lot of pts for a D like Montana has fielded this year. With that said, not taking EWU. Just commenting on line variance from one place to the other.

Yeah it’s funny because I was hoping for around 24 with Montana but told myself if it got inflated to 35.5 I might take EWU, but don’t think it goes that high.

 

[carolinablue]

I thought about nova now that the line is 6.5 but haven’t had much luck with road teams so stayed away. Any thoughts on that one?

 

[s--k]

I thought about nova now that the line is 6.5 but haven’t had much luck with road teams so stayed away. Any thoughts on that one?

Not right now. I don't have good recall and memory so I need to go back and remind myself how these teams typically play, what their worst looks like, what their best looks like and it's why it takes me a while to really feel ok about what I'm taking. I don't like lines coming out so early because it doesn't suit the time I like to think about these things. But I will want to touch on that game at some point.

 

[carolinablue]

Not right now. I don't have good recall and memory so I need to go back and remind myself how these teams typically play, what their worst looks like, what their best looks like and it's why it takes me a while to really feel ok about what I'm taking. I don't like lines coming out so early because it doesn't suit the time I like to think about these things. But I will want to touch on that game at some point.

No worries as I’m not seeing anything jump out at me so far so most of my plays will come from the later releases but hopefully not middle of the night stuff as I have faded on that completely!

 

[s--k]

Other than posting the info here, I really have not looked over all of the matchups yet. I try and put some data I collect from the prior week to bed first and I'm still doing that. I am finding myself getting further behind each week now which leads to a host of issues. But...it's week 11 need to finish strong

 

[austinhous]

Morgan State

over a year since they played a game to the under 10-0 ou L10

 

[s--k]

over a year since they played a game to the under 10-0 ou L10

That's an interesting trend for a team that used to have such a low scoring offense and such a great defense, 2023 into first half of 2024. The D for sure isn't good anymore.

 

[s--k]

Speaking of Morgan, their game vs Delaware State is a Friday game.

I was disappointed with Delaware State last week vs Norfolk. Maybe it was the stage, maybe it was the hype, it sure as hell should not have been Norfolk State because Norfolk has been one of the very worst team in the country all year - and all of a sudden they shut down this Delaware State O that has been a hot knife through everyone? New DC, I don't buy it. Bad team and DSU, just beat NCCU ... maybe that was it? Flat off the NCCU win? Again, not sure I buy that because this game vs Norfolk in Philly vs Vick was so hyped all year.

So do we go back and think that the team we get this week is the DSU that beat NCCU, DSU that was tied 35-35 and only trailed 38-42 in the 4Q vs Monmouth with Derek Robertson, team that led SHU by multiple scores and was in scoring position their first 7 drives (wihtout Bennett who was ejected the first series). I just think this offense was so good before, that I want to believe that is the real version of DSU and I don't know what the version we saw last Thursday was.

They are sloppy. They are still heavily penalized. The D? I guess the run D has shown pretty well except the Monmouth game, but everyone passes with ease against them.

Not sure who Morgan is right now. QB is Moore, what happened to Muasau? RB is Nauden? What happened to Collins? The D is BAD? What happened to that being the best aspect of this team? No longer. Morgan 0-5 vs FCS this season; trailed 10-36 4Q vs SC State before scoring 3 TDs on 201y on their final 3 possessions to give the appearanced that was a competitive game, it wasn't. Lost in OT to Howard. Lost on a hailmary to Georgetown. Morgan had 417-249 yard edge vs Towson with a KO ret TD and a pick-six, but somehow lost 22-27 (Towson winning TD :24). Towson is the only FCS team Morgan has outgained this year, +168 in that one. Avg outgained by 88y and outscored 27-32 vs Gtown, Howard and Sc State - although the SC State score has bunch of garbage pts in it.

Think you have to believe it is a DSU win and probably Over considering the Ds on the field. DSU is 1-2 ATS as a road/neutral fav with the one win being 39-10 at SFU. Think Morgan likely better than SFU. Then they blew the SHU lead and the Norfolk debacle. DSU a perfect 4-0 ATS as dogs. Morgan 2-0 ATS as FCS dogs, 3-1 ATS as dogs overall.

DSU playing 2 QBs now too? "Sauray too good not to play" they said? I don't know. As volatile as Bennett can be, I would want him in there every snap. Sauray did absolutely nothing vs Norfolk. Bennett was a little hobbled, maybe that led to the insertion of Sauray...Bennett came back in and closed the game. Read he's expected to start this week.

 

[carolinablue]

Ole Miss too steep for me at -54.5 106 vs Citadel, but a 66-3 final would not surprise me in the least.

 

[s--k]

I thought about nova now that the line is 6.5 but haven’t had much luck with road teams so stayed away. Any thoughts on that one?

Towson has some really good WRs. QB has to be able to get them the ball, and the Fr Indorf has been up and down this year, but those guys make plays and Villanova has not faced much of a passing threat the last several games... Albany, Hampton...Elon has some passing threat, UNH is a little limited. That could be something that Towson has an edge, their WRs vs Nova secondary. We are week 11 now, so not like much of what expectations were from summer matter, but I do know that the DBs were the biggest area of concern on the Nova D and again, I just don't know how much they have had to defend good receivers, outside of Monmouth, but not fair to compare Monmouth passing game to what Towson does. Colgate's Saunders went 10-137-TD week 2 (Nova won by 7). Derry went 8-177-2TD week 4, Monmouth won by 18. So basically Villanova has faced two high quality WRs and both did well. Towson's Doss and Dunmore, one of them has been getting 100y just about every week. Just because a WR gets 100y doesn't mean what team wins, but I think it means that Towson's O might be able to do some things.

I also worry that for Towson, off a handful of disappointing games...does the A&T win kind of inspire them again to bring it? Their game the week before vs SB was bad, still only lost by 8. They were in the game with Monmouth til late in the 4Q, that game was tied 21-21, 28-28 and Monmouth only led 35-31 when they scored the final TD with 2min left. Towson had 3 empty drives to the Mommouth 35 and further (TOs and missed FG). Not sure a whole lot before that matters as things evolve and change weekly.

So I guess, what I'm thinking is that Towson lost a couple games there and were maybe hanging their head and the A&T game kind of wakes them up and they show up vs Nova this week. I'm not sure if you remember the game last year, but Towson had two chances at game winning FGs in the final minutes and missed them both. That game was just 14-13, Nova -20.5 and Towson had a 394-351 yard edge (5.7-5.6).

Nova has been road fav twice and won/covered both - at UNH 37-7 -2.5 and 29-21 -3.5. They've been good this year, probably better than last year really. Everyone has an off week, so I won't be too critical of their lackluster game vs Albany. Otherwise they have been good. Can Towson D stop them?

Villanova O probably has success on Towson D. They give up yards on the ground, but have a decent ypc allowed avg....4.1 - Villanova run D is 4.2ypc allowed. Towson pass eff D pretty good, just 7 TDs allowed in 9 games with 6 INTs.

Villanova better, Villanova has covered as favorites at a good clip (4-1 ATS) and Towson has not been great dogs (0-2-1 vs FCS), but this isn't a game I'm going to take Villanova. Towson has yet to win a game at home this year. I know A&T is weak and a lot of stuff just came easy for them last week, but I could see it being a bit of a shot in the arm and I think they will play hard to get a win at home

 

[s--k]

Ole Miss too steep for me at -54.5 106 vs Citadel, but a 66-3 final would not surprise me in the least.

It's always so hard to know how these games will go, but do you think 64.5 is a really high total for this? Ole Miss could have a 28pt 1Q and could have 49 pts at HT, but even then 64.5 is a pretty high hurdle. We know that Citadel will prefer to just run it a ton (Furman game being the exception). They are attempting less than a dozen passes a game (18 vs Furman) and run it 46x per game. Not like they are going to break any runs, but even if they are down by 5 or 7 TDs at any point, think they are just going to keep running. Maybe they get a first down here or there, clock keeps running.

Looking at their other games vs FBS, they hit 65 combined at Clemson last year (total was 49.5).

I guess in envision Ole Miss getting up very large at the half, maybe score another TD early 3Q with the 1s and then it is bench guys (who will score some), but also a bunch of kind of vanilla run plays that burn clock too.

 

[s--k]

It's always so hard to know how these games will go, but do you think 64.5 is a really high total for this? Ole Miss could have a 28pt 1Q and could have 49 pts at HT, but even then 64.5 is a pretty high hurdle. We know that Citadel will prefer to just run it a ton (Furman game being the exception). They are attempting less than a dozen passes a game (18 vs Furman) and run it 46x per game. Not like they are going to break any runs, but even if they are down by 5 or 7 TDs at any point, think they are just going to keep running. Maybe they get a first down here or there, clock keeps running.

Looking at their other games vs FBS, they hit 65 combined at Clemson last year (total was 49.5).

I guess in envision Ole Miss getting up very large at the half, maybe score another TD early 3Q with the 1s and then it is bench guys (who will score some), but also a bunch of kind of vanilla run plays that burn clock too.

Looking at what Ole Miss does in their annual FCS game:

'24 76-0 week 1 vs Furman O/U 60.5
'23 73-7 week 1 vs Mercer O/U 55.5
'22 59-3 week 2 vs UCA O/U 61
'21 54-17 week 2 vs Austin Peay O/U 69.5

Maybe there is reason the total is what it is. My first reaction was thinking it was high. Maybe it ticks up and that gives me a couple more pts to play with if I were to take it. Citadel has been shutout twice this year already and they are playing better now than they were in September, but could be shutout again this game.

 

[s--k]

I would think for the Monmouth D, facing New Hampshire is going to resemble the SB and Towson games of 3-4 weeks ago more than the Bryant and Hampton games of the last 2 weeks. Shutting down a Bryant and Hampton O isn't all that hard. Both Towson and SB lost by DDs, but their Os with a turnover prone QB (Zellous for SB) and a young one (Indorf for Towson) had their teams in the fight vs Monmouth. SB only trailed 21-28 before losing 21-49. Towson was only losing 31-35 before losing 31-42. SB outgained Monmouth by 8y (only FCS team to outgain Monmouth) and Towson was only outgained by 30y (smallest positive yardage edge for Monmouth this year).

I would think that UNH is similarly capable of being in a game vs Monmouth. UNH went into their bye with their best offensive performance of the year, 512 ttl yards, 8.3ypp, 232y rushing (5.9) and 74% passing 280y 12.2ypa 3-0 ratio. UNH O was only avg 318 ypg before the W&M game. Bye might've come at a bad time in terms of keeping that O rolling. UNH has been getting better offensively since the poor showing vs Nova. Since then they have been steadily increasing the rushing output, passing effiicency and all of it. Still just an average-ish O overall, but they are better than they used to be.

Defensively, UNH is hit and miss and while Monmouth clearly still has some offensively capability, their FCS ypg avg with Robertson was 547ypg (7.35), without him the last 2 weeks vs Hampton and Bryant the avg is 450.5 (6.45). The scoring with Roberton was 47ppg vs FCS, without him just 31.5ppg. The O runs through Nelson now as he has 77att and 477y with 6 TDs the last 2 weeks. Can UNH off a bye craft a gameplan to slow that down? UNH held this O to a season low 313y and 20pts last year. Monmouth -1 on the road lost 20-33. Towson also has a good defensive game vs Monmouth last year, but they were unable to duplicate it. Robertson played in that game and he is still out now as they take on UNH. UNH run D has had some struggles and that is how Monmouth primarily attacks now.

If there is one thing UNH is not, it is consistent. Did not play well vs Nova, did play well vs URI. Did not play well vs Campbell, did play well vs W&M.

Line seems a little high at 13.5. Monmouth was -9.5 home vs SB (with Robertson) and while they won by 28 (was misleading as has already been noted), not sure if Monmouth should be favored by more hosting UNH withouth Robertson then they were vs SB?

 

[s--k]

Well, I'm not taking the tablet to bed tonight. I will just see what new is available if anything in the morning. Not sure what I'll take yet, guess I'll know it when I see it.

 

[carolinablue]

It's always so hard to know how these games will go, but do you think 64.5 is a really high total for this? Ole Miss could have a 28pt 1Q and could have 49 pts at HT, but even then 64.5 is a pretty high hurdle. We know that Citadel will prefer to just run it a ton (Furman game being the exception). They are attempting less than a dozen passes a game (18 vs Furman) and run it 46x per game. Not like they are going to break any runs, but even if they are down by 5 or 7 TDs at any point, think they are just going to keep running. Maybe they get a first down here or there, clock keeps running.

Looking at their other games vs FBS, they hit 65 combined at Clemson last year (total was 49.5).

I guess in envision Ole Miss getting up very large at the half, maybe score another TD early 3Q with the 1s and then it is bench guys (who will score some), but also a bunch of kind of vanilla run plays that burn clock too.

Agree with the thinking but ole Miss could score on every possession due to so many mismatches, so 70-0 isn’t out of the realm of possibility plus I think citadel will get at least a FG or TD on some fluke or broken play so personally don’t want to mess with this one at all.

 

[carolinablue]

I would think for the Monmouth D, facing New Hampshire is going to resemble the SB and Towson games of 3-4 weeks ago more than the Bryant and Hampton games of the last 2 weeks. Shutting down a Bryant and Hampton O isn't all that hard. Both Towson and SB lost by DDs, but their Os with a turnover prone QB (Zellous for SB) and a young one (Indorf for Towson) had their teams in the fight vs Monmouth. SB only trailed 21-28 before losing 21-49. Towson was only losing 31-35 before losing 31-42. SB outgained Monmouth by 8y (only FCS team to outgain Monmouth) and Towson was only outgained by 30y (smallest positive yardage edge for Monmouth this year).

I would think that UNH is similarly capable of being in a game vs Monmouth. UNH went into their bye with their best offensive performance of the year, 512 ttl yards, 8.3ypp, 232y rushing (5.9) and 74% passing 280y 12.2ypa 3-0 ratio. UNH O was only avg 318 ypg before the W&M game. Bye might've come at a bad time in terms of keeping that O rolling. UNH has been getting better offensively since the poor showing vs Nova. Since then they have been steadily increasing the rushing output, passing effiicency and all of it. Still just an average-ish O overall, but they are better than they used to be.

Defensively, UNH is hit and miss and while Monmouth clearly still has some offensively capability, their FCS ypg avg with Robertson was 547ypg (7.35), without him the last 2 weeks vs Hampton and Bryant the avg is 450.5 (6.45). The scoring with Roberton was 47ppg vs FCS, without him just 31.5ppg. The O runs through Nelson now as he has 77att and 477y with 6 TDs the last 2 weeks. Can UNH off a bye craft a gameplan to slow that down? UNH held this O to a season low 313y and 20pts last year. Monmouth -1 on the road lost 20-33. Towson also has a good defensive game vs Monmouth last year, but they were unable to duplicate it. Robertson played in that game and he is still out now as they take on UNH. UNH run D has had some struggles and that is how Monmouth primarily attacks now.

If there is one thing UNH is not, it is consistent. Did not play well vs Nova, did play well vs URI. Did not play well vs Campbell, did play well vs W&M.

Line seems a little high at 13.5. Monmouth was -9.5 home vs SB (with Robertson) and while they won by 28 (was misleading as has already been noted), not sure if Monmouth should be favored by more hosting UNH withouth Robertson then they were vs SB?

Was leaning over in this one as I think there is some value in the number but like you said, I’m not sure which UNH team will show up.

 

[carolinablue]

Someone just hit Morgan state as line just dropped to DSU -4.5

 

[s--k]

Someone just hit Morgan state as line just dropped to DSU -4.5

Trust issues with Del State as favorite and Morgan playing in close games is my assumption. Unless there is news on Bennett. QB news in FCS is rare. He was said to be starting. I took partial of the -225 ML. I’m hopeful a good week of practice after they realize how bad they played vs Norfolk offensively which is an outlier to all their other games. But if Morgan can pass and catch DSU will be vulnerable there.

 

[s--k]

Handful of other lines moved. People getting bored waiting for new games to be released betting the old ones.

 

[steponaduck]

Agree with the thinking but ole Miss could score on every possession due to so many mismatches, so 70-0 isn’t out of the realm of possibility plus I think citadel will get at least a FG or TD on some fluke or broken play so personally don’t want to mess with this one at all.

citadel chosing to THROW the ball all over VMI in the 4th quarter caused me to take it in the rear end with CIT/VMI under 54.5. worst beat I have taken in a while....unreal.

throwing 40 yard bombs on 4th and inches while running the clock out with 12 seconds left.

 

[carolinablue]

Handful of other lines moved. People getting bored waiting for new games to be released betting the old ones.

If I remember correctly, which is a big if, I think we got additional releases on a Thursday afternoon sometime around 2-3pm in the past few weeks

 

[carolinablue]

Starting again 4:55pm Thursday…home team lines as they open

Stony Brook -17.5 113
Chatt -4.5 113

 

[carolinablue]

More…

Brown +13.5 113

 

[carolinablue]

More…

LIU +5.5 113

 

[carolinablue]

More…
Robert Morris -2.5 120
CCSU -14.5 113

 

[carolinablue]

More..
St Francis +10.5 113
Lafayette -6.5 113 quickly moved to 106

 

[carolinablue]

CCSU now 12.5 113