Week 11 in the FCS

Will wait and see on St Thomas as I would like 7.5

Presby way too high for me as I was hoping for under 3 TDs

Morehead is a possibility if it gets closer to 14.5
 
Appreciate you posting these. I was doing some betting while wrapping up yard work.

They just had UNI -17.5 vs Murray. You know I bet Murray because they cover like 7 out of 9 games. was 17.5 and went to 14.5 pretty quick. UNI isn't bad...but it's one of those things, like several games last week and earlier, you have a lesser team a huge fav over another lesser team...Citadel vs VMI comes to mind. There are several. Can't lay those pts. UNI O is rough and Murray schedule has been just as challenging, but this is the easiest team either team will play. Murray is a great dog.
 
s--k said:
Appreciate you posting these. I was doing some betting while wrapping up yard work.

They just had UNI -17.5 vs Murray. You know I bet Murray because they cover like 7 out of 9 games. was 17.5 and went to 14.5 pretty quick. UNI isn't bad...but it's one of those things, like several games last week and earlier, you have a lesser team a huge fav over another lesser team...Citadel vs VMI comes to mind. There are several. Can't lay those pts. UNI O is rough and Murray schedule has been just as challenging, but this is the easiest team either team will play. Murray is a great dog.
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Yeah Murray might be 10.5 by kickoff, nice grab!
 
ACU another that opened too hogh for my tastes, so I still have nothin at all so far.

Waiting on SE Louisiana, SFA, GWebb, Sac State
 
Also took VMI +13.5, Wofford couldn't cover DD last week, let's see if they can do it this week. And sure VMI sucks, the Mercer game, I know. But played well vs Citadel last week and their last home game should've beat Samford (missed winning FG :00). Only lost to UTC by 7. Pretty tough at home, 2-0 ATS both as dogs and were in both games
 
I like how SUU is playing, but man, EKU is so tough at home as a dog and just had a strong game at UCA last week - actually it would qualify as EKU's best game of the year. I would've liked SUU, but can't lay road pts with them there, tempted to take EKU as home dog
 
Debating FAMU, GWebb, UTM, Chatt MLs as all are still < 200. If I’m missing anything feel free to let me know as I’m not fully sold on any but strongest lean is most likely GWebb.
 
carolinablue said:
Debating FAMU, GWebb, UTM, Chatt MLs as all are still < 200. If I’m missing anything feel free to let me know as I’m not fully sold on any but strongest lean is most likely GWebb.
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The only one I acted on was UTM 13.5 which I think it was 13.5 for 15 minutes or so before jumping to 14.5
 
s--k said:
The only one I acted on was UTM 13.5 which I think it was 13.5 for 15 minutes or so before jumping to 14.5
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Yeah I went back and forth on that one but decided to pass as I had jotted down in my notebook 12.5 or less, so didn’t want to go against what I had down. With that said I think 13.5 is solid, just staying disciplined here in the home stretch.
 
carolinablue said:
Ole Miss too steep for me at -54.5 106 vs Citadel, but a 66-3 final would not surprise me in the least.
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ole miss came out and said they didnt plan or prep for wazzu one bit, and they won by 3 as 33 point faves.

with florida on deck in a revenge spot for ole miss? why would they even prep for this game? Citadel ran the ball right up clemsons ass last year for 300 yards in that one.

54 point spread? yeah I will be on the cit here,.


ole miss doesnt care about this one. there is no way they do. prepping for UF and a revenge spot takes precedent.

52-6 final. Cit covers.
 
Man that DSU ML is tempting with the huge line drop vs open. I assume it is injury based but still hard to not like DSU in this spot.
 
Also looking at alt line overs as that may actually be a better play than a side given this could be a low key shootout given DSU's penalty issues and the opportunities for big plays against that Morgan State defense.
 
I just took some DSU 1H. I did try to look around for any Bennett related news, hew would be the only injured related news if he was a scratch. Bay to Bay news said he was scheduled to start this game mid week. This line has been under pressure all week, so either people don't believe in DSU as road chalk....they beat NCCU on the road! Or they don't like their D....valid. Or Bennett isn't playing....don't know. Or they like Morgan? Not sure why anyone would really like Morgan most weeks.
 
s--k said:
I just took some DSU 1H. I did try to look around for any Bennett related news, hew would be the only injured related news if he was a scratch. Bay to Bay news said he was scheduled to start this game mid week. This line has been under pressure all week, so either people don't believe in DSU as road chalk....they beat NCCU on the road! Or they don't like their D....valid. Or Bennett isn't playing....don't know. Or they like Morgan? Not sure why anyone would really like Morgan most weeks.
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Yeah this feels like one of those games where I turn it on and at the top of the broadcast they show the QB on the sidelines in sweats haha. Alt line total at 48.5 under 200 is tempting as I can't see Morgan stopping that running game so DSU should be good for at least 30 I would think.
 
steponaduck said:
ole miss came out and said they didnt plan or prep for wazzu one bit, and they won by 3 as 33 point faves.

with florida on deck in a revenge spot for ole miss? why would they even prep for this game? Citadel ran the ball right up clemsons ass last year for 300 yards in that one.

54 point spread? yeah I will be on the cit here,.


ole miss doesnt care about this one. there is no way they do. prepping for UF and a revenge spot takes precedent.

52-6 final. Cit covers.
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Kiffin wants a big win vs Florida to help his future contract negotiations with them ;)
 
Hope somebody leaves live options open for one or both games
 
I'm limited to $42.30 on alt totals at FD just learned
 
Nobody I see has live for Del St - Morgan. Many places have Harv - Columbia available
 
36 pre-Saturday bets for me is light. Looking for more.

Prairie View should win. PV is 4-1 vs SWAC with their first conference loss coming last week in the big game vs ASU. ASU won, but it was close throughout in fact PV had had multiple leads in the 1H. 4 INTs last week, was only their second multi-TO game of the year. Better running than passing. O avg 383.4 and D allows just 275Alabama A&M has been held to under 200y ttl O the last 2 weeks and converted just 3-of-25 of their 3rd downs in those games. AM O had SEVEN 3-outs vs Grambling last week and had 6 straight 3-outs the week prior vs ASU. Rough O and D? ASU's O gained 600+ on their D, JSU O gained 700+ on their D. Not like PV is that good, but should be good enough I'd assume.
 
Bryant has never won a CAA game as a league member. 0-13 and they are -3.5 on the road at Albany! Do think they have a little, just a little more to like, but still on the backup QB as far as I know. 14 game conference will give you this kind of unbalanced schedule - these two have only played one common opponent, URI. Bryant was playing them tough, URI blew Albany out by 41. Bryant is 0-2 SU as favorites this year (lost at -1.5 Campbell and home -2.5 vs Maine). I don't know, I'm tempted on Albany just on principle, but their so bad. Did beat Cornell as a 3pt home dog earlier this year. Bryant 3.5 road fav vs CAA, just kind of funny
 
s--k said:
36 pre-Saturday bets for me is light. Looking for more.

Prairie View should win. PV is 4-1 vs SWAC with their first conference loss coming last week in the big game vs ASU. ASU won, but it was close throughout in fact PV had had multiple leads in the 1H. 4 INTs last week, was only their second multi-TO game of the year. Better running than passing. O avg 383.4 and D allows just 275Alabama A&M has been held to under 200y ttl O the last 2 weeks and converted just 3-of-25 of their 3rd downs in those games. AM O had SEVEN 3-outs vs Grambling last week and had 6 straight 3-outs the week prior vs ASU. Rough O and D? ASU's O gained 600+ on their D, JSU O gained 700+ on their D. Not like PV is that good, but should be good enough I'd assume.
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I have exactly zero plays on fcs so far, that’s crazy for me…
 
Two teams that looked really bad last week...Austin Peay and Central Arkansas. AP lost by 16 at Southern Utah and AP O just was off all night, D allowed SUU to score on all 4 1H possessions. Appears AP is a much different team home vs away. Games vs UAC league opponents: Away, lost at SUU by 16, lost at EKU by 14, lost at ACU by 14. Home, won vs UNA by 28, won vs WGU by 14, won vs Ut Tech by 32. 0-3 vs FCS on the road, 3-0 at home (avg spread -12.5)! Before last week AP had outgained every FCS opponent by 186ypg. Were -59 last week.

UCA was playing pretty well, kind of found themselves in the Lamar game in the comeback attempt. Then won a close one at home vs Ut Tech, won big at UNA and played good enough to win at WGU (with Wydner). Then kind of unexpectedly, a rather limited EKU O put up 418 and 34pts on them in a 21 pt home loss. Some of the EKU pts were gift wrapped, but UCA O just didn't have much. UCA O held to just 280y in that one and actually they had 486 at UNA, but were held under 340y vs Ut Tech, WGU and EKU. Earlier they had 514y on Lamar. Really hard team to figure out.

Line is 12.5/55.5. This is the second largest FCS dog line UCA has had all year (+14.5 at Sac State lost by 29). 3 of the last 4 UCA games have been Unders. AP has gone Over 6 of last 7, but 2 of those would've gone Under this total. 12.5 is exactly the average of their 3 UAC home fav lines this year. Things are pointing to playing AP here, but something I don't like about it.
 
Thinking of doing 3 ML plays all under 200, so 2-1 gets me profit. Thoughts on which 3 of these would make the most sense?

GWebb 180
Drake 142
FAMY 172
UCD 142
Bucknell 142
RMU 140
 
carolinablue said:
Thinking of doing 3 ML plays all under 200, so 2-1 gets me profit. Thoughts on which 3 of these would make the most sense?

GWebb 180
Drake 142
FAMY 172
UCD 142
Bucknell 142
RMU 140
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Only bets I have made on those games is I took Idaho +4.5, but I did so with the intention to look for a Davis play as game approaches with the assumption that Idaho could flip to home favored. Might not happen.

So not having made any initial plays on any of the other games I don't have anything helpful. I'm going back through the games I didn't play now.

I will say that I have been trying to find out if Ralph Rucker is back for Bucknell to no avail. The limited number of people I have found who do talk Bucknell or Patriot League football haven't seemed to know or say much. Everyone is in the dark on this stuff. Fordham has been kind of a tough out at times. If Bucknell is on the backup again, I wouldn't trust them to win. Bucknell does have some nice skill position players, but without Rucker stirring that drink they aren't the same and the D is really bad.
 
MLs I have played to win 1 or .5:

Duquesne -215
Richmond -172
UTM -650 (for a fraction)
YSU -120
PV -138
East Tx AM -136
UTRGV -250
Idaho State -225
 
Appreciate the response! The one I keep coming back to is GWebb is I think 180 is solid value at home but trying to dig into it to see if I am missing something, as ultimately I don't think SEMO will be able to contain the running game
 
The spread/total plays I took:
SFU +10.5
SH +14.5
Yale -13.5
UNH +13.5
Colg +6.5/Ov54.5
Princeton +10.5
VMI+13.5
UTM -13.5
Campbell +12.5
Murray +17.5
Elon +6.5
Mont -27.5
Mont St -28.5
Tx So +18.5
Bethune +6.5
SDSU-USD Und 47.5
Sac St -23.5
UNC +11.5
Idaho +4.5
 
I have a handful that I am waiting to see how opens look at BM as some of the FD lines were only a couple points from being a play, so thinking some may land in the strike zone at BM, but we'll see...

Lehigh
Montana State
Sac State
Marist
Tenn Martin

Either way, will be a lighter than normal week for sure as I only have 6 FBS for Saturday
 
carolinablue said:
Appreciate the response! The one I keep coming back to is GWebb is I think 180 is solid value at home but trying to dig into it to see if I am missing something, as ultimately I don't think SEMO will be able to contain the running game
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I had SEMO last week and left very disappointed. I recall you leaned Charleston Southern, so credit on that (mental wins! haha - not sure if you took them). Not sure how SEMO plays a pretty solid game vs TTU and then gets beat worse than the score really vs CSU. I kind of assumed the wins vs bad teams in EIU and TSU plus the performance vs TTU meant they were kind of coming along and with their #1 QB back now too. But now I don't know what to make of them.

What was your impression of Pennington last week for GW? I had thought their other QB Hampton was better, but obviously he has been hurt the last 3 games so I don't know if they get him back or not.

My assumption is GW and SEMO are kind of even, before last week I might've thought that SEMO with their #1 QB was the better of the two.
 
carolinablue said:
I have a handful that I am waiting to see how opens look at BM as some of the FD lines were only a couple points from being a play, so thinking some may land in the strike zone at BM, but we'll see...

Lehigh
Montana State
Sac State
Marist
Tenn Martin

Either way, will be a lighter than normal week for sure as I only have 6 FBS for Saturday
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Of note, Hard Rock has Montana State at 32.5 and have for a couple days now, that is what led me to circle back and take MSU -28.5 on Tuesday. Not sure if HR lines are any indication of where BM opens.

Sac State at 23.5 kind of feels wrong because of how large it is, but Portland State is really bad and I know they won last week, that probably only keeps Sac focused to play them this week (plus PSU beat them last year...bad). So I laid that because if they can, Sac State can run away with that game like they have vs other lesser Big Sky teams.

Lehigh got bet down, which is kind of suprising, but except for the Gtown game last week, a lot of their games are played close realative to the spread and some final scores finish right around the spread so people probably just taking +pts with that in mind I would assume. HC and Lafayette got bet down too. Maybe people still hoping for some life in that Crusaider team.
 
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