Week 11 in the FCS

s--k said:
I had SEMO last week and left very disappointed. I recall you leaned Charleston Southern, so credit on that (mental wins! haha - not sure if you took them). Not sure how SEMO plays a pretty solid game vs TTU and then gets beat worse than the score really vs CSU. I kind of assumed the wins vs bad teams in EIU and TSU plus the performance vs TTU meant they were kind of coming along and with their #1 QB back now too. But now I don't know what to make of them.

What was your impression of Pennington last week for GW? I had thought their other QB Hampton was better, but obviously he has been hurt the last 3 games so I don't know if they get him back or not.

My assumption is GW and SEMO are kind of even, before last week I might've thought that SEMO with their #1 QB was the better of the two.
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I have a fascination with Tenn Tech so actually watched a decent amount of the GWebb game and actually thought Pennington played well, but his OL did him no favors at all. If they actually protect him this week (which I expect they will as SEMO won't get the penetration that TT did), I think he will do just fine as he doesn't have to do too much, just enough to let their running game do its' thing. They probably should have won that game last week but it was like TT woke up well after the game started and once that happened, you just knew they were gonna keep their undefeated streak going. I think I have played on SEMO a few times this year and actually like watching them, but just feel this is a bad spot for them going on the road, but should be an interesting one. And no, didn't play Char So last week as they just got added to the stack of "mental wins" LOL
 
s--k said:
Of note, Hard Rock has Montana State at 32.5 and have for a couple days now, that is what led me to circle back and take MSU -28.5 on Tuesday. Not sure if HR lines are any indication of where BM opens.

Sac State at 23.5 kind of feels wrong because of how large it is, but Portland State is really bad and I know they won last week, that probably only keeps Sac focused to play them this week (plus PSU beat them last year...bad). So I laid that because if they can, Sac State can run away with that game like they have vs other lesser Big Sky teams.

Lehigh got bet down, which is kind of suprising, but except for the Gtown game last week, a lot of their games are played close realative to the spread and some final scores finish right around the spread so people probably just taking +pts with that in mind I would assume. HC and Lafayette got bet down too. Maybe people still hoping for some life in that Crusaider team.
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I still remember that crazy line swing at the start of the year on that BYU v Portland State game, man that was a thing of beauty in terms of easy money. I agree about Sac State and probably should take the 23.5 but figure no harm in waiting on that one as it has been stuck at that number for the most part. Lehigh should win this one by 21+ as you are right they have let some teams hang out but if they are firing on all cylinders this one could get ugly (I know that's a BIG "if"). Marist would be more of a fade play but hate laying double digits in those situations although I could see Marist beating Stetson by 17+. Both Montana schools are tempting but like Montana State a little better. Not a fan of 28.5 as a number so will wait and see what BM comes up with. UTM I was on the fence on so hoping to get 12.5 as I would like to have 13 and 14 in play for a win vs sitting on a 14.5 ticket.
 
I went back to 2015 - Georgetown football is 2-25 straight up in November and both wins are vs Bucknell! Already 0-1 this year.

Now the last time I posted a record like this it was in support of Colgate vs them as Colgate had won 12 straight in the series and 20 of the last 21. Hoyas snapped that streak. Can they beat somebody not named Bucknell in November?

Richmond has their issues, I have to think they are superior to the Hoyas - a loss to Georgetown would be a huge set-back for Spiders football.
 
Butler only favored once this year, didn't cover the -7, won a back-and-forth game by 3 vs Marist. Last year they were 1-1 ATS as road fav, covered a -1 and lost season finale -9 at PC. How we feeling about Butler as road chalk this year? They are a pretty decent Pioneer team as they have shown with their play, just below that upper tier of teams. Morehead is just above that lowest tier of bad Pioneer teams. So what happens? Morehead played better than the 28-24 score showed last week, that game marked the first Dl opponent they outgained all year 412-316 (6.1-4.7) vs Davidsion. Cravens isn't a bad QB, average for this league, Upp is a pretty good WR. MH D is the biggest concern, and the fact they lost to Stetson (who had big rushing output vs them), so hard to want to take them. I guess the line is about right, Dayton was -9.5 at MH and was a 7pt game. Butler beat Dayton in a close one. Dog is on a 5-0 ATS run in MH games and dog is on a 6-0 ATS run in Butler games! Is that enough to just blindly take the pts? Butler beat them 40-6 last year.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah that game was weird as they put up the first 14 pretty easily then the offense disappeared the rest of the way.
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That O has lost it's mojo. Norfolk has been terrible D all year and they struggled vs them. Thought maybe the stage, the lights the hype of that game got in their heads, ok, well Morgan D has been pretty awful this year and struggled again. Can't trust DSU O any longer and could never trust their D anyway. The way that game unfolded they are lucky they won, lucky Morgan remains a basket case of a team.
 
s--k said:
That O has lost it's mojo. Norfolk has been terrible D all year and they struggled vs them. Thought maybe the stage, the lights the hype of that game got in their heads, ok, well Morgan D has been pretty awful this year and struggled again. Can't trust DSU O any longer and could never trust their D anyway. The way that game unfolded they are lucky they won, lucky Morgan remains a basket case of a team.
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Yeah just knew Morgan was gonna blow it at the end after making all those nice qb runs and such to get in FG range. Tough break for those DSU backers on the spread though as game shouldn’t have been that close.
 
St Thomas has just played the 4 worst Pioneer league teams by win-loss record in successive weeks. They beat them by a combined 209-40 score! But when St Thomas played better league teams, Butler and San Diego they lost close games to both of those. Drake beat a lot of those bad league teams too, but they also beat Butler and San Diego in close games. Drake has outgained their league foes by 115 ypg. St Thomas has really run it up on the bad teams and has outgained all but one of the Pioneer foes by 169ypg and that average includes the -73y deficit vs SD.

Would assume this will be a close game as it was last year. Two years ago it was not close, 52-21 Drake as 6.5pt home dog! Drake has only lost 1 conference game the last 2.5 years and their new head coach has never lost a regular season conference game (went 72-5 at NAIA only losses were in playoffs).

Have to kind of lean Drake, but I am only doing so for maybe these superficial reasons, not reasons in terms of how the they win and why.

Think this would be an Under though. When Drake is single digit fav like vs Butler and San Diego, in the assumed close games, just 43 pts combined in the Butler game on a 49.5pt total and just 35pts on a 50.5 pt total vs SD. All Drake's Pioneer League games would go under this week's total. St Thomas has gone Over more often because they've scored 50+ 3x themselves. In their close game they've played one Over and one Under. St Thomas was held to 14pts and 306y vs Butler and 27pts and 347y vs SD, that represents their two lowest FCS scoring and yardage outputs of the year. Drake would figure to be capable of doing something similar.

St Thomas has gotten lots of big plays vs the bad teams they have played that just aren't there for them vs SD and Butler and probably won't be vs Drake either.

Seems like Drake and Under
 
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Listening to the FCS Nation podcast and Kevin was talking about not knowing the health/status of Robertson for Monmouth (as in if he could potentially play this week and not knowing how to pick it without knowing if he is playing). There was a news article that stated Robertson could come back for the regular season finale and the playoffs, I don't think there is any real speculation he could've returned for this week's game.
 
Did Bookmaker drop everything at once or did they put them out in groups?
 
I noticed it last night that DK is limiting me on the favorite MLs and see it again today. Can only risk 72.48 max. I don't bet FCS there much, last Saturday I went 3-0 all favorite MLs to win $50. Now they cut that in half.
 
The bizarre case of Duquesne football...

Dukes go from beating NH, SH, SF and MH by an average score of 41.75 - 9.75 with a total yardage edge avg of 421.75 - 219.75 to their last two games at Wag and LIU being outscored 12 - 26.5 with a yardage deficit avg of 281 - 310.5.

Are Wagner and LIU better than the collection of the other 4 teams Duquesne beat? Yes, but this is NEC football, nobody is really that good and for a team that played so well over the course of their first 4 league games to play so poorly vs teams that are no better than mid-pack at best is one of the most confusing things I have encountered this season. There are no significant injuries to the key players that I'm aware of other than one of their top LBs missed last game. Riddell is one of the most experienced QBs in FCS and he's just completely forgotten how to be effective. He had an 11-1 ratio in the 4 wins I listed above, 7.65 ypa, but just a 2-4 ratio and 4.5ypa the last 2.
 
Ivy League favorites go 0-4 ATS this week. It's a weird league, competitive, even the top team vs the bottom team isn't a guaranteed blowout. The style of play and aggressiveness drops off once the teams get a lead and lets the trailing team linger and score some points after the game has been decided.
 
Monmouth ran into a team they needed their #1 QB to beat.

Maine has won 5 in a row!

Bucknell wins their first game without Rucker

What is going on with Tennessee Tech? Can't crack 30 pts the last 2 weeks.

William & Mary had an improbable comeback win in OT at Campbell

Montana...not the best look from a newly crowned #2 team (coaches)

Southeastern Louisiana wasn't getting the respect they felt they deserved, aren't going to get any now!

Presbyterian was without their starting QB, Davidson beats them

SDSU on 3 game losing streak, when is the last time that happened? Edit - 2013
 
There are always opening lines that matter. Murray State +17.5 lost by 17 and Texas Southern +18.5 lost by 18.
 
I missed the Presby QB news as that would have made the Davidson +28.5 more appealing but glad at least I didn’t take Presby this week.
 
carolinablue said:
I missed the Presby QB news as that would have made the Davidson +28.5 more appealing but glad at least I didn’t take Presby this week.
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I think the line dropped a few pts leading into kickoff, I wasn't involved on that game and rarely hear any news like that anyway. That game was one of the few live FCS offerings and I was tempted to bet PC once they were down a couple scores, but I figured I should atleast turn it on to see what is happening and first thing I heard was the QB making his first start. As a independent bystanders, cool to see Davidson get their first Dl win with the new coaching staff. Just generally happy for people when they have something meaningful happen. They actually have been playing better and are now on a 3-0 ATS run.
 
UTC has a new QB and I was never much of a fan of Orth, this kid had a great debut 4 TDs 0 INTs, Battle Alberson. What a name, 'Battle'

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s--k said:
I think the line dropped a few pts leading into kickoff, I wasn't involved on that game and rarely hear any news like that anyway. That game was one of the few live FCS offerings and I was tempted to bet PC once they were down a couple scores, but I figured I should atleast turn it on to see what is happening and first thing I heard was the QB making his first start. As an independent bystanders, cool to see Davidson get their first Dl win with the new coaching staff. Just generally happy for people when they have something meaningful happen. They actually have been playing better and are now on a 3-0 ATS run.
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Davidson is only about 45min away from me so might make them my fcs school next year and try to hit a game or two
 
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