Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Unfortunately I got off to a losing start in posted write ups last week as New Mexico State failed to cover against that anemic Nevada squad. If you were on the Aggies like I was, you were actually on the right side in my opinion. First of all, the total yards of the game were 105-2 when the game was delayed for a lightning strike 8 miles away from the stadium. The delay killed NMSU's momentum, which doesn't even mention the tough luck of being in a scoreless game with that kind of yardage discrepancy. NMSU turned it over 5 times. Nevada didn't turn it over at all despite fumbling 3 times only to recover their own fumbles. Nevada averaged 3.4 yards per pass play and won by double digits anyway. It as a tough beat, but it all adds up to a 0-1 start.
I grabbed Northwestern at +13 when the line recovered on Saturday morning, but I can't take credit for that one since the line value was untenable when I wrote up my thoughts on it. On to Week 1. (FULL DISCLOSURE: My son is a sophomore at Purdue, but I detect no bias in what follows![Smile :) :)](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png)
Purdue +3.5 LOSS
New Mexico State +36.5 LOSS
Old Dominion +7 WIN
TCU -13.5 WIN
Appalachian State -1.5 LOSS
Arizona +6.5 WIN
UTSA +4.5 WIN
Ohio State -17 LOSS
USF +12 LOSSSSSSSSS
Nevada +2 WIN
Utah -2.5 LOSS
LSU -3 LOSS
Week Total 5-7
Thursday: 1. @Purdue +3.5(-115) v Penn State: When you look at any preseason breakdowns of Purdue, the first thing you'll notice is that they lose their two studs from last year, DL George Karlaftis and WR David Bell, both relatively high NFL draft picks. In addition, #2 WR Milton Wright was a spring casualty. Bell and Wright will be missed, but QB Aiden O'Connell has proven himself to be highly competent regardless of who he's throwing to as he exploded for 500+ in the bowl game against a decent Tennessee pass defense despite not having those guys. In addition, they bring in electric athlete Charlie Jones from Iowa, who found a way to average 9.2 yards per target with Iowa's QBs throwing to him. I'm guessing Jeff Brohm will be able to make good use of him., and don't be surprised if he makes a difference in the return game. Defensively, Penn State was great last year, but close look at their schedule reveals that they benefitted greatly by playing some piss poor offenses. The good offenses that they played (Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland(kind of) and Arkansas) all topped 420 yards and even Illinois ran for 357(!!) yards on them. They didn't face a passing attack that looks anything like Purdue's does, and they come in with a new defensive scheme and need to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. On the flip side, PSU couldn't run the ball to save their lives last year, and I don't know that there will be much improvement on that end as the OL looks to be a question mark again this year. QB Sean Clifford returns, but he'll be without Jahaan Dotson, who was easily their top offensive threat. This seems to me to be a bit of a tough matchup for the Nits, and I'm not sure what to think about new DC Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up in his first game against the likes of Brohm. We also have to remember that Purdue is a solid home dog (8-3 since 2018), and a great dog overall in that span(14-6). It will be a great atmosphere in West Lafayette Thursday night...I think Penn State will get Purdue's best game.
2. New Mexico State +36.5 @Minnesota: Back to the well with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here. If you look at PJ Fleck's recent performance in these non conference games in the heavy favorite role, things have not gone well. We all remember the borderline impossible loss to Bowling Green last year, but they've had clunkers in which they narrowly escaped against Miami(OH) (won by 5 as an 18 point favorite last year), and in 2019 (South Dakota State and Georgia Southern by a combined 10 points). There's been some unkind words shot back and forth between Kill and Fleck regarding some comments Fleck made when he took over Minnesota from Kill's right hand guy Tracy Claeys, but my guess is that PJ will just want to get out of there without any controversy. I'm high on the Gophers this year because they have former OC Kirk Ciarocca back, but despite being able to likely throw it at will, they'll probably run it 60 times. Kill's defense will probably fare better than most would expect, and now that we won't be subjected to Pavia at QB for the Aggies, maybe Gavin Frakes will actually score a couple TD's without turning it over 5 times. Minny only scored more than 37 once last year...the Gophers typically don't have the profile of a team that typically covers spreads this high, and we should expect Kill's teams to have enough fight to be competitive, especially in a game that he's going to have some extra juice for.
I grabbed Northwestern at +13 when the line recovered on Saturday morning, but I can't take credit for that one since the line value was untenable when I wrote up my thoughts on it. On to Week 1. (FULL DISCLOSURE: My son is a sophomore at Purdue, but I detect no bias in what follows
![Smile :) :)](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f642.png)
Purdue +3.5 LOSS
New Mexico State +36.5 LOSS
Old Dominion +7 WIN
TCU -13.5 WIN
Appalachian State -1.5 LOSS
Arizona +6.5 WIN
UTSA +4.5 WIN
Ohio State -17 LOSS
USF +12 LOSSSSSSSSS
Nevada +2 WIN
Utah -2.5 LOSS
LSU -3 LOSS
Week Total 5-7
Thursday: 1. @Purdue +3.5(-115) v Penn State: When you look at any preseason breakdowns of Purdue, the first thing you'll notice is that they lose their two studs from last year, DL George Karlaftis and WR David Bell, both relatively high NFL draft picks. In addition, #2 WR Milton Wright was a spring casualty. Bell and Wright will be missed, but QB Aiden O'Connell has proven himself to be highly competent regardless of who he's throwing to as he exploded for 500+ in the bowl game against a decent Tennessee pass defense despite not having those guys. In addition, they bring in electric athlete Charlie Jones from Iowa, who found a way to average 9.2 yards per target with Iowa's QBs throwing to him. I'm guessing Jeff Brohm will be able to make good use of him., and don't be surprised if he makes a difference in the return game. Defensively, Penn State was great last year, but close look at their schedule reveals that they benefitted greatly by playing some piss poor offenses. The good offenses that they played (Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland(kind of) and Arkansas) all topped 420 yards and even Illinois ran for 357(!!) yards on them. They didn't face a passing attack that looks anything like Purdue's does, and they come in with a new defensive scheme and need to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. On the flip side, PSU couldn't run the ball to save their lives last year, and I don't know that there will be much improvement on that end as the OL looks to be a question mark again this year. QB Sean Clifford returns, but he'll be without Jahaan Dotson, who was easily their top offensive threat. This seems to me to be a bit of a tough matchup for the Nits, and I'm not sure what to think about new DC Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up in his first game against the likes of Brohm. We also have to remember that Purdue is a solid home dog (8-3 since 2018), and a great dog overall in that span(14-6). It will be a great atmosphere in West Lafayette Thursday night...I think Penn State will get Purdue's best game.
2. New Mexico State +36.5 @Minnesota: Back to the well with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here. If you look at PJ Fleck's recent performance in these non conference games in the heavy favorite role, things have not gone well. We all remember the borderline impossible loss to Bowling Green last year, but they've had clunkers in which they narrowly escaped against Miami(OH) (won by 5 as an 18 point favorite last year), and in 2019 (South Dakota State and Georgia Southern by a combined 10 points). There's been some unkind words shot back and forth between Kill and Fleck regarding some comments Fleck made when he took over Minnesota from Kill's right hand guy Tracy Claeys, but my guess is that PJ will just want to get out of there without any controversy. I'm high on the Gophers this year because they have former OC Kirk Ciarocca back, but despite being able to likely throw it at will, they'll probably run it 60 times. Kill's defense will probably fare better than most would expect, and now that we won't be subjected to Pavia at QB for the Aggies, maybe Gavin Frakes will actually score a couple TD's without turning it over 5 times. Minny only scored more than 37 once last year...the Gophers typically don't have the profile of a team that typically covers spreads this high, and we should expect Kill's teams to have enough fight to be competitive, especially in a game that he's going to have some extra juice for.
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