Week 1 Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Unfortunately I got off to a losing start in posted write ups last week as New Mexico State failed to cover against that anemic Nevada squad. If you were on the Aggies like I was, you were actually on the right side in my opinion. First of all, the total yards of the game were 105-2 when the game was delayed for a lightning strike 8 miles away from the stadium. The delay killed NMSU's momentum, which doesn't even mention the tough luck of being in a scoreless game with that kind of yardage discrepancy. NMSU turned it over 5 times. Nevada didn't turn it over at all despite fumbling 3 times only to recover their own fumbles. Nevada averaged 3.4 yards per pass play and won by double digits anyway. It as a tough beat, but it all adds up to a 0-1 start.

I grabbed Northwestern at +13 when the line recovered on Saturday morning, but I can't take credit for that one since the line value was untenable when I wrote up my thoughts on it. On to Week 1. (FULL DISCLOSURE: My son is a sophomore at Purdue, but I detect no bias in what follows :)

Purdue +3.5 LOSS
New Mexico State +36.5 LOSS
Old Dominion +7 WIN
TCU -13.5 WIN
Appalachian State -1.5 LOSS
Arizona +6.5 WIN
UTSA +4.5 WIN
Ohio State -17 LOSS
USF +12 LOSSSSSSSSS
Nevada +2 WIN
Utah -2.5 LOSS
LSU -3 LOSS

Week Total 5-7

Thursday: 1. @Purdue +3.5(-115) v Penn State: When you look at any preseason breakdowns of Purdue, the first thing you'll notice is that they lose their two studs from last year, DL George Karlaftis and WR David Bell, both relatively high NFL draft picks. In addition, #2 WR Milton Wright was a spring casualty. Bell and Wright will be missed, but QB Aiden O'Connell has proven himself to be highly competent regardless of who he's throwing to as he exploded for 500+ in the bowl game against a decent Tennessee pass defense despite not having those guys. In addition, they bring in electric athlete Charlie Jones from Iowa, who found a way to average 9.2 yards per target with Iowa's QBs throwing to him. I'm guessing Jeff Brohm will be able to make good use of him., and don't be surprised if he makes a difference in the return game. Defensively, Penn State was great last year, but close look at their schedule reveals that they benefitted greatly by playing some piss poor offenses. The good offenses that they played (Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland(kind of) and Arkansas) all topped 420 yards and even Illinois ran for 357(!!) yards on them. They didn't face a passing attack that looks anything like Purdue's does, and they come in with a new defensive scheme and need to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. On the flip side, PSU couldn't run the ball to save their lives last year, and I don't know that there will be much improvement on that end as the OL looks to be a question mark again this year. QB Sean Clifford returns, but he'll be without Jahaan Dotson, who was easily their top offensive threat. This seems to me to be a bit of a tough matchup for the Nits, and I'm not sure what to think about new DC Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up in his first game against the likes of Brohm. We also have to remember that Purdue is a solid home dog (8-3 since 2018), and a great dog overall in that span(14-6). It will be a great atmosphere in West Lafayette Thursday night...I think Penn State will get Purdue's best game.

2. New Mexico State +36.5 @Minnesota: Back to the well with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here. If you look at PJ Fleck's recent performance in these non conference games in the heavy favorite role, things have not gone well. We all remember the borderline impossible loss to Bowling Green last year, but they've had clunkers in which they narrowly escaped against Miami(OH) (won by 5 as an 18 point favorite last year), and in 2019 (South Dakota State and Georgia Southern by a combined 10 points). There's been some unkind words shot back and forth between Kill and Fleck regarding some comments Fleck made when he took over Minnesota from Kill's right hand guy Tracy Claeys, but my guess is that PJ will just want to get out of there without any controversy. I'm high on the Gophers this year because they have former OC Kirk Ciarocca back, but despite being able to likely throw it at will, they'll probably run it 60 times. Kill's defense will probably fare better than most would expect, and now that we won't be subjected to Pavia at QB for the Aggies, maybe Gavin Frakes will actually score a couple TD's without turning it over 5 times. Minny only scored more than 37 once last year...the Gophers typically don't have the profile of a team that typically covers spreads this high, and we should expect Kill's teams to have enough fight to be competitive, especially in a game that he's going to have some extra juice for.
 
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Was on NMST as well. Yup, the right side...despite all the silliness...but that's the way it goes. Even after everything that happened, needing two scores, if they simply kick the FG to try the onside kick, it still comes w/in the number. Just wasn't meant to be, but still was frustrating to watch.

Like your write up/analysis on Purdue. Love their QB, but still lean to PSU a bit. Not gonna play the game though, so will just enjoy watching it and wish you good luck.
Br@ss balls going back on NMST...but I agree that they keep this w/in the spread. Forget his name, but the freshman QB injected some life into the offense. And you know Kill addressed all those dropped balls with his receivers. Those dropped balls, some of which became INTs, were truly ridiculous/unbelievable.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Unfortunately I got off to a losing start in posted write ups last week as New Mexico State failed to cover against that anemic Nevada squad. If you were on the Aggies like I was, you were actually on the right side in my opinion. First of all, the total yards of the game were 105-2 when the game was delayed for a lightning strike 8 miles away from the stadium. The delay killed NMSU's momentum, which doesn't even mention the tough luck of being in a scoreless game with that kind of yardage discrepancy. NMSU turned it over 5 times. Nevada didn't turn it over at all despite fumbling 3 times only to recover their own fumbles. Nevada averaged 3.4 yards per pass play and won by double digits anyway. It as a tough beat, but it all adds up to a 0-1 start.

I grabbed Northwestern at +13 when the line recovered on Saturday morning, but I can't take credit for that one since the line value was untenable when I wrote up my thoughts on it. On to Week 1. (FULL DISCLOSURE: My son is a sophomore at Purdue, but I detect no bias in what follows :)

Thursday: 1. @Purdue +3.5(-115) v Penn State: When you look at any preseason breakdowns of Purdue, the first thing you'll notice is that they lose their two studs from last year, DL George Karlaftis and WR David Bell, both relatively high NFL draft picks. In addition, #2 WR Milton Wright was a spring casualty. Bell and Wright will be missed, but QB Aiden O'Connell has proven himself to be highly competent regardless of who he's throwing to as he exploded for 500+ in the bowl game against a decent Tennessee pass defense despite not having those guys. In addition, they bring in electric athlete Charlie Jones from Iowa, who found a way to average 9.2 yards per target with Iowa's QBs throwing to him. I'm guessing Jeff Brohm will be able to make good use of him., and don't be surprised if he makes a difference in the return game. Defensively, Penn State was great last year, but close look at their schedule reveals that they benefitted greatly by playing some piss poor offenses. The good offenses that they played (Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland(kind of) and Arkansas all topped 420 yards and even Illinois ran for 357(!!) yards on them. The didn't face a passing attack that looks anything like Purdue's does, and they come in with a new defensive scheme and need to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. On the flip side, PSU couldn't run the ball to save their lives last year, and I don't know that there will be much improvement on that end as the OL looks to be a question mark again this year. QB Sean Clifford returns, but he'll be without Jahaan Dotson, who was easily their top offensive threat. This seems to me to be a bot of a tough matchup for the Nits, and I'm not sure what to think about new DC Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up in his first game against the likes of Brohm. We also have to remember that Purdue is a solid home dog (8-3 since 2018), and a great dog overall in that span(14-6). It will be a great atmosphere in West Lafayette Thursday night...I think Penn State will get Purdue's best game.

2. New Mexico State +36.5 @Minnesota: Back to the well with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here. If you look at PJ Fleck's recent performance in these non conference games in the heavy favorite role, things have not gone well. We all remember the borderline impossible loss to Bowling Green last year, but they've had clunkers in which they narrowly escaped against Miami(OH) (won by 5 as an 18 point favorite last year), and in 2019 ( South Dakota State and Georgia Southern by a combined 10 points. There's been some unkind words shot back and forth between Kill and Fleck regarding some comments Fleck made when he took over Minnesota from Kill's right hand guy Tracy Claeys, but my guess is that PJ will just want to get out of there without any controversy. I'm high on the Gophers this year because they have former OC Kirk Ciarocca back, but despite being able to likely throw it at will, they'll probably run it 60 times. Kill's defense will probably fare better than most would expect, and now that we won't be subjected to Dante Pavia at QB for the Aggies, maybe Gavin Frakes will actually score a couple TD's without turning it over 5 times. Minny only scored more than 37 once last year...the Gophers typically don't have the profile of a team that typically covers spreads this high, and we should expect Kill's teams to have enough fight to be competitive, especially in a game that he's going to have some extra juice for.
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Great minds think alike as I was also on NMSU last week and took ‘em at 38 Saturday while the game was in progress. I fully expect Minny to get about 300+ rushing but figure the clock will be on our side plus NMSU surely can’t give the ball away as much as they did last weekend.

Man, that one was painful to watch on so many levels. Best of luck this weekend!
 
Great writeup on Purdue. I was leaning that way but your dive into PSUs schedule last year pushed me over the edge.

You're right, I don't see how they are ready for what Brohm and co will bring at home. This is a solid dog play at 3.5
 
Friday: 3. @ Old Dominion +7 v Virginia Tech: This one is actually falling, but you can still find it at 7 in most places. Usually, you'd like to see more line value than this (For example, ODU was +29 a few years ago when they upset VT) but I still think there's value based on where these two teams are. It's a matchup of former Penn State coordinators as Ricky Rhane and Brent Pry tee it up in Norfolk. It seemed like the overall consensus was positive on VT's hire of Pry, but I found it to be a bit underwhelming. He's a workhorse kind of guy, but it seems like guys like him are a dime a dozen, and the coordinators he brought in look a bit underwhelming as well. The OC is the former Jaguars TE coach who spent a year on the offensive staff at Penn State with Pry in 2000, and the DC is a castoff from Florida State's staff who played for Franklin and Pry at Vandy. The Hokies brought in Grant Wells from Marshall to play QB, but he was a turnover machine last year which lead to some major underachieving by the Thundering Herd. ODU has some pretty good momentum after they finished last year as they finished 5-0 after a 1-6 start to reach a bowl game. Pretty much everyone is back, including a 1,000 yard rusher, a 1,000 yard receiver, the starting QB and all 5 linemen on offense. They were solid defnsively, especially down the stretch last year and return 7 of their 11 starters on that side of the ball and 5 of their top 6 tacklers. There's a lot of enthusiasm among the fanbase, so the atmosphere should be good in Norfolk, and VT to me seems like a vulnerable road favorite, coming in with a new /mistake prone QB and anew systems all around. Although it's a new staff, VT has not been good as a road favorite recently (2-8 ATS since '18). If I were a Hokie fan, I'd be scared to death of this game, and would take straight up victory of any kind right now, let alone a cover of a TD or more.
 
4. TCU -13.5 @Colorado: Full disclosure: I got this game at -10 about 3 1/2 weeks ago. There is absolutely no line value on this game at this point, but I wanted to write it up, and frankly, I'd take a flyer on it at anything 14 or less. If you are like me and detest settling for bad line value, I would totally understand sitting this one out, but here's my rationale. When Mel Tucker left Colorado in the lurch a couple years ago, Colorado made a pretty desperate hire in Karl Dorrell. I think it's safe to say that everyone knew a Dorrell-led Buffs program would never achieve anything, and ultimately the clock would be ticking toward a complete burial of the Buffs program, but they needed somebody with some credibility, and Dorrell, solid guy that he is, was willing to take the job and had some bonfides as a previous power 5 head coach. My guess is that all the administrators in Boulder has no designs on keeping him past this year, and based on the exodus of all the decent players he had, he might not even make it to the end of the year. Interestingly enough, Dorrell did ok in his first year with the leftovers from McCarthy and Tucker, but the longer he hangs around, the worse things are getting. Their offense will probably be among the worst in the country as they have almost nothing left from a crap offense from last year, most notably losing their most competent offensive player, Jarek Broussard to Michigan State in the transfer portal. The new OC is Mike Sanford, who has name recognition but has spent the last decade making just about every offense he takes over more boring and less productive. It's going to be a rough year for the Buffs...11 of their 12 games are against Power 5 teams, and the one that isn't is in Colorado Springs against Air Force. On the flip side, TCU welcomes Sonny Dykes from SMU, and I think TCU is set up pretty well for his first year. They've got 2 QBs who appear to be good alternatives. Max Dugan, who has been around for awhile and can run, averaged more than 9 yards per attempt last year and Chandler Morris who averaged almost 10 yards per attempt when Dugan got hurt. They lso have their top 4 receivers back, 3 of which averaged more than 17 yards per catch. Defensively, they can only get better, but they have 8 starters back and made a fantastic hire plucking Joseph Gillespie from Tulsa, who is typically listed as one of the top DCs in the country. I'd say that you'd have a hard time finding a bigger OC/DC mismatch than Sanford v Gillespie, and the fact that Dykes hasn't settled on a QB yet might mean that both of them will be firing downfield to make their case long after this one is decided. I think we might look back on this one as one of the few chances to fade Colorado before it's obvious they are simply cannon fodder this year. It's possible you might have to lay 20 in the very near future.
 
I dunno why Dykes is wasting time? Trying to be tricky? Duggan anothef one these Mfers that been around for a freaking decade it seems, they just being nice to him! I saw Morris freaking destroy baylor filling in for Duggan before unfortunately getting hurt, he looks way the hell more talented than duggan and certainly more well equipped to run Dykes offense! Prob won’t matter for this game but I be way more interested in backing tcu when I know Morris gonna be the guy!
 
As always, your insight is impeccable. I look forward to reading your posts each week.

That being said, I'm on my Buffs +14 for a little.

And the Frogs tt over 35 for a lil' mo' just in case...
 
One other play I forgot to mention:

Number of weather delays during week 1 of college football: OVER 4.5.


Might be the lock of the century since there might actually be some lightning in the sky somewhere in the world on Saturday.
 
inZane said:
As always, your insight is impeccable. I look forward to reading your posts each week.

That being said, I'm on my Buffs +14 for a little.

And the Frogs tt over 35 for a lil' mo' just in case...
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Seems like you be better off just going over no? I dunno anything bout buffs offense, not sure tcu d is very good? You would think if buffs can have a few decent drives/possess the ball a bit tcu d should wear down in the altitude. Not like Dykes offense is known for slowing things down to give the d a breather!
 
5. @Appalachian State -1.5 v North Carolina: A little less analysis on this one. Ultimately, I just don't trust Mack Brown to have his team ready for this game. I kind of wish they didn't mess around on the scoreboard with Florida A&M last week so that we could have better line value here. They outgained the Rattlers by almost 300 yards and piled up 600 yards of offense, but since A&M was in the neighborhood late while missing half their team, this line plummeted. Ultimately, the degree of difficulty goes up or the Heels here, as Appy State returns their entire running game and all 5 OL starters from a year ago. I think they'll have success running the ball all day against the Heels, since the primary criticism of the Heels DL is that they're a bot on the soft side. Hopefully the running game will be good enough so that Chase Brice can utilize some forms of play action Heels QB Drake Maye was good enough last week in his first start, but it's a totally different thing going up against the Mountaineers in Boone. UNC has had some clunkers in the early season, most notably at VT to start the season last year. Despite bringing in some good resumes among his assistant coaches, I still feel like Mack sets the tone and is likely to have the Heels ill prepared for what's coming, and I think the chance of the Heels getting run over in the running game is real. If they have to rely on Maye to win it for them, that's a problem, and if Josh Downs is unavailable or hobbled, that's going to make it that much harder.
 
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6. Arizona +6.5 @San Diego State: Arizona was in a terrible spot last year, with new coach Jedd Fisch having to pretty much start from scratch after the tragic results of the Kevin Sumlin regime, It started badly and if not for virtually Cal's entire team being deemed a close contact of a COVID patient the week before they were scheduled to make the trip to Tucson, the Wildcats would have been winless. However, as the season wore along, they got better, hanging with the likes of Utah, USC and Washington and actually outgaining Arizona State in the finale(a year after getting obliterated by the Sun Devils by 70 in Sumlin's swan song.). This year their entire team returns for year 2, but a lot of the returners aren't going to play as much because Fisch did very well in the transfer portal, notably getting Jayden DeLaura from Washington state to upgrade at QB. He's not a superstar, but he's competent, and he'll be able to throw to Jacob Cowing, who you could argue was the most explosive receiver in the nation last year at UTEP. He was basically their entire passing offense, racking up almost 1400 yards and averaging 19.6 yards per clip catching the ball in an offense that will demonstrate this year what it's capable of without him. On the other side they have Dorian Singer, who didn't play until the final 5 games but was a big reason for their offensive improvement, averaging 17 yards per catch. SDSU is a solid team, but their MO is not as a high scoring outfit. They bring in yet another underwhelming QB to try to spice things up in Braxton Burmeister, or Bernie Braxmeyer or whatever, but he was just ok at Virginia Tech. Their MO is the run game and a strong defense. I'm a little concerned about the run game because they have only 2 OL starters back and they'll be starting 3 redshirt freshmen and 2 sophomores it appears. This shakes up as a close game, and I think if Cowing picks up where he left off at UTEP, they might be able to score enough to pull off the road win.
 
7. @UTSA +4.5 (-112) v Houston: I did not surprise myself by being on the opposite side of Houston and QB Clayton Tune. I've never been much of a fan of his, and this year is no different. Houston had a great year last year, but when you take a look at their schedule, they really only played 3 teams that you could classify as serious opponents, and I'm not counting Memphis because Road Memphis is not a serious team. You would like to see a little more room in the spread for the dog here, but I think it's telling that this line has stayed at 4 despite was must be a lot of action on Houston. There's a lot of chatter about Houston being this year's version of Cincinnati, but I don't see it. As I mentioned, I very seldom find myself backing the Cougs, and it hasn't really hurt me. Houston excelled against that weak schedule last year mostly on the strength of their defense, especially their secondary. They had two lockdown corners, both of whom were early round draft choices They contributed to a hellacious performance on 3rd down defense, holding opponents to around 25% on 3rd down, which led the country for most of the season. They'll also miss one of those corners, Marcus Jones on special teams, as he was Devin Hester-esque in the return game. He killed at least one of my bets single handedly(SMU) last year. They should definitely regress to the mean in their 3rd down defense and they'll be facing an offense that should be able to stay on the field in UTSA. Frank Harris, who has been solid for 3 years as a dual threat returns as does his top 4 receivers, so whoever steps into the corner spots for he Cougs will be under pressure immediately, especially whoever covers Zakhari Franklin, who caught 81 balls for 1024 yards and 12 scores. Offensively, Houston will probably be very reliant on Tune and the passing game since they are returning only 35% of their snaps on the OL and RB Alton McCakill was lost with an ACL in he spring. As long as he throws to Nathaniel Dell(apparently he goes by Tank now. I guess I'm the only guy that didn't know), that's fine, but Jeff Traylor has to know that Dell needs to be neutralized, and if he is, I think the Cougs will be in a bit of trouble. I think UTSA will put up points, and I think these two teams are evenly matched. UTSA will be expected to win this, and the oddsmakers are indicating that it's a great possibility. This is a feel play for me, but I'm taking the points.
 
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8. @Ohio State -17 v Notre Dame: I'm not a big fan of laying this many points, but as I've learned so far this year, favorites cover sometimes. Ohio States offense is so loaded that sometimes it borders on comical. I think I mentioned this last year, but consider what Ryan Day and company might have been discussing once they learned that Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were sitting out the Rose Bowl last year. Day: "Well gentlemen, we are in a tough spot. our 2nd and 3rd most productive receivers are sitting out the Rose Bowl because they are likely to be the first two receivers drafted in the NFL draft. Luckily for us, our #1 receiver is still playing, but wow, we'll have to find someone to replace those guys. Who do we have among our scrubs??" Assistant Coach: "Well, we have MARVIN HARRISON JR lying around. He's actually bigger and faster than his dad was. I guess we can slum it and throw him in there." That's the embarrassment of riches Ohio State has. Never mind CJ Stroud, a Heisman level running back and now a defense that knows what they're doing with the arrival of Oklahoma State DC Jim Knowles, who basically schemed OSU into the position to be one game away from the playoff last year. Typically a top 5 team like Notre Dame getting 17 points against anyone would be in consideration for auto-play status, but IMO, the only reason Notre Dame is ranked in the top 5 is because someone has to be ranked there. I really don't see a position group on the feld that won't be at a disadvantage against Ohio State. ND's offensive line is well thought of, but many of there guys are mismatched into new positions and they're young, so you can even find reasons to pick that unit apart. I'm not sure if anyone watched Tyler Buchner play last year, but I don't think he can be an effective passer. He's potentially a playmaker with his legs, but I can't see Knowles allowing him to beat the defense that way, and any competence he showed last year was against the likes of Georgia Tech and Stanford, who were 2 of the most inept teams in Power 5 by the time ND played them. The other factor working against Notre Dame is that even though they might be overmatched, they still garner everyone's best shot. It's Notre Dame after all. Ohio State will be whipped into a frenzy and so will their fans. This is also not the ideal time for Marcus Freeman to be making his debut. He's an Ohio State guy so they're not likely to embarrass him, but we all need to keep in mind that he was the DC at Cincinnati 16 months ago and now he's the head coach in one of the most pressure packed jobs at any level. I can't imagine that he's at anything other than a major disadvantage against this Ohio State staff, especially with the addition of Knowles. This looks like a 38-10 type game to me.
 
Im torn on that zona/sdst game, usually I’m a huge fan of going against sdst when I can get any decent amount of points cause as you mentioned their offense doesn’t exactly inspire confidence to cover numbers. On the other hand they own the pac-12 for which even improved the cats gonna be at or near the bottom of for another year at least. We see how DeLauera does but think the transition to a totally different kind of offense could come w some growing pains against what always a really good sdst d. Of course I never been the biggest bermiester fan either! Not sure he has a clue how to operate a offense? The times he looks at his best when he out there running around like a chicken w his head cut off!!! Beats me, I should prob just leave alone, I did consider cats team total under 19.5 but sdst under 26.5 prob good also! I do think Aztecs should have some nice energy opening their new stadium, im pretty confident they win but no clue if they cover.
 
9. @South Florida +12 (-112) v BYU: The Bulls have been a laughingstock for a few years, but everything is pointing in a positive direction for them this year, as pretty much everyone is back on a team that went on a pretty nice ATS run at the end of the year(covered 5 of their last 7) and was much more competitive as the year moved along. This year they add a healthy amount of power 5 transfers in the trenches to give them some depth. All 5 linemen return and they have a couple of productive backs returning, as well as a very useful addition in QB Gerry Bohanon, who just found ways to win at Baylor the last couple of years. His addition and expectation for winning will probably help them more than his talent will, although he's proven himself to be a pretty resourceful player, something their QB position has definitely not been the past couple of years. These teams matched up in Provo last year and the Bulls went toe to toe with them losing only by 8 as a 23 point dog. This game is set for a 4PM eastern kickoff, which will maximize the heat and humidity for BYU to have to deal with. I know people have been talking about this ad nauseum, but it's true, the kids in Utah are not used to that weather, and it's a disadvantage for them. I've always been a big fan of BYU and I try not to fade them, but if I do, it's when their favored because they are money as a dog.
 
10. @Nevada +2 v Texas State: Just like everyone else, I watched Nevada play New Mexico State in Week 0, and just like everyone else, and even though I was on the other side, I was taken aback by how weak they looked, especially on offense. Their passing game totaled 79 yards on 14 completions between their 2 QBs and it looked like they were terrified to do anything remotely close to throwing the ball downfield. All they did was break a couple long runs and sit back and accept the turnovers NMSU gave them for the bulk of the game. The reaction to this game, despite a cover for Nevada, has been quick and severe. Every Tom Dick and Harry (including me) immediately looked at the schedule to see who they played next. When I saw it was Texas State, My enthusiasm dropped, especially since they were only getting 4 points. For historical reference, since 2015, Texas State has only been a road favorite once, and that was against winless Louisiana Monroe in 2020, one of the worst teams in recent memory, and the Bobcats were only a 4 point favorite there, Now they are a 2 point favorite in Reno. Are they considered to be a hugely improved Sun Belt team? No, they're picked about where they usually are, near the bottom of the Sun Belt, ahead of only Monroe and Butch Jones's hideous Arkansas State team. As for the rest of the betting public, they didn't care if Reno's opponent was Texas State, UMass or the Reno Truck Driving Academy, they were fading Nevada. I might look foolish in this bet, but Nevada still has a pair of solid running backs in Toa Taua and Devonte Lee, and Arkansas State refugee Layne Hatcher is just as capable of tossing picks as the NMSU QBs were, as he threw 13 interceptions a couple years ago. Also, although Shane Illingworth didn't show a thing last week, he's got a couple 300 yard games on his resume when he was ot Oklahoma State, he hasn't been prone to turnovers, and Texas State doesn't exactly have a stellar record in pass defense. This seems like a value play to me, although I'll be holding my nose when I hit the button.
 
Love the south Florida play, I thought it was a day game which woulda been better but think radio said it was tonight?
 
11. @Utah -2.5 v Florida: I'll admit that I'm a little worried that this might be on the square side, but ultimately I have a Florida squad picked for third or maybe even fourth in the SEC East that's at a talent nadir with completely new schemes going up against a a Utah squad that most people agree is a darkhorse for the playoff. The assumption is that Florida has talent oozing from every orifice, but the rumor is that the best looking players in camp and the spring game were Louisiana transfers that Napier brought with him. QB Anthony Richardson has the potential to be very explosive, especially as a runner, but the Gators second and third string QBs are out, so there's no depth behind him. That might make Napier hesitant ti run him a ton, and that would neuter his effectiveness. On the flip side, Utah is in great shape coming into the season. The DBs that were all hurt in the Rose Bowl are back healthy, and their offense was clicking about as well as any in the country last year in both facets. They return Cam Rising at QB and Tavion Thomas (and Mycah Bernard) at RB and 5 of their top 6 receivers return. My only concerns are the heat of the Florida night might be difficult for the Utes, and we all know the Pac 12's tendency to foul up a good thing. But ultimately, I just don't think this Florida team with a new coach and new schemes is in a position to derail a team as buttoned up and competently managed as this Utah squad is.
 
AliShaheed said:
Disagree on this. Freeman talked a lot of shit in the offseason and is now major recruiting rival of OSU. If the opportunity presents itself then Day will absolutely go for the throat.
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Agree 100%. Yes, Freeman is an OSU guy, but he's made a lot of negative comments about the school the last couple of years and pissed off the fanbase. Day absolutely knows and appreciates that and won't hesitate to put up an extra score or two for the faithful.
 
12. LSU -3 v Florida State: I'm generally positive on Florida State, but I guess I don't think the combo of Mike Norvell and Jordan Travis are ready to shine in a stand alone game on national TV. Right now, they're capable to hanging with a good team as a dog or winning an under the radar type game, but I think this LSU team under Kelly has the potential to be really good. Think about it this way: Ed Orgeron and Les Miles, two guys that are generally regarded as borderline bad coaches, have been able to win National Championships with the combination of the talent available to them and the support of the institution. It's obvious that Brian Kelly can be dominant there. In his first game, he'll already be blessed with one of the best groups of receivers and defensive linemen in the country. This is a neutral site game, but it's a road game for the Noles playing this game in New Orleans. Better than Baton Rouge I guess, but definitely a tough environment. Although it looks like they've made strides from the Wet-nap level offensive lines of the recent past, FSI is still likely to be at a severe disadvantage against this LSU DL., as will FSU's secondary against Kayshon Boutte who caught 9 TDs in limited duty last year. We should also remember that Brian Kelly has won 40 of the last 41 games he's been favored in. There's a chance that they can win but not cover a short line like this, but I like my chances if Kelly wins the game outright, and that's all he does in games that he's supposed to.
 
Bad week, 5-7 after the late losses by LSU and Utah. Very close calls on some of the losses, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. I still don't hate the plays, except maybe USF, and there were several plays I considered but ultimately ditched that turned out to be smart moves. It definitely could have been worse. Thanks to everyone for the comments. On to next week...........
 
Br@ssknux said:
Unfortunately I got off to a losing start in posted write ups last week as New Mexico State failed to cover against that anemic Nevada squad. If you were on the Aggies like I was, you were actually on the right side in my opinion. First of all, the total yards of the game were 105-2 when the game was delayed for a lightning strike 8 miles away from the stadium. The delay killed NMSU's momentum, which doesn't even mention the tough luck of being in a scoreless game with that kind of yardage discrepancy. NMSU turned it over 5 times. Nevada didn't turn it over at all despite fumbling 3 times only to recover their own fumbles. Nevada averaged 3.4 yards per pass play and won by double digits anyway. It as a tough beat, but it all adds up to a 0-1 start.

I grabbed Northwestern at +13 when the line recovered on Saturday morning, but I can't take credit for that one since the line value was untenable when I wrote up my thoughts on it. On to Week 1. (FULL DISCLOSURE: My son is a sophomore at Purdue, but I detect no bias in what follows :)

Purdue +3.5 LOSS
New Mexico State +36.5 LOSS
Old Dominion +7 WIN
TCU -13.5 WIN
Appalachian State -1.5 LOSS
Arizona +6.5 WIN
UTSA +4.5 WIN
Ohio State -17 LOSS
USF +12 LOSSSSSSSSS
Nevada +2 WIN
Utah -2.5 LOSS
LSU -3 LOSS

Week Total 5-7

Thursday: 1. @Purdue +3.5(-115) v Penn State: When you look at any preseason breakdowns of Purdue, the first thing you'll notice is that they lose their two studs from last year, DL George Karlaftis and WR David Bell, both relatively high NFL draft picks. In addition, #2 WR Milton Wright was a spring casualty. Bell and Wright will be missed, but QB Aiden O'Connell has proven himself to be highly competent regardless of who he's throwing to as he exploded for 500+ in the bowl game against a decent Tennessee pass defense despite not having those guys. In addition, they bring in electric athlete Charlie Jones from Iowa, who found a way to average 9.2 yards per target with Iowa's QBs throwing to him. I'm guessing Jeff Brohm will be able to make good use of him., and don't be surprised if he makes a difference in the return game. Defensively, Penn State was great last year, but close look at their schedule reveals that they benefitted greatly by playing some piss poor offenses. The good offenses that they played (Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland(kind of) and Arkansas) all topped 420 yards and even Illinois ran for 357(!!) yards on them. They didn't face a passing attack that looks anything like Purdue's does, and they come in with a new defensive scheme and need to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. On the flip side, PSU couldn't run the ball to save their lives last year, and I don't know that there will be much improvement on that end as the OL looks to be a question mark again this year. QB Sean Clifford returns, but he'll be without Jahaan Dotson, who was easily their top offensive threat. This seems to me to be a bit of a tough matchup for the Nits, and I'm not sure what to think about new DC Manny Diaz's ability to scheme up in his first game against the likes of Brohm. We also have to remember that Purdue is a solid home dog (8-3 since 2018), and a great dog overall in that span(14-6). It will be a great atmosphere in West Lafayette Thursday night...I think Penn State will get Purdue's best game.

2. New Mexico State +36.5 @Minnesota: Back to the well with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here. If you look at PJ Fleck's recent performance in these non conference games in the heavy favorite role, things have not gone well. We all remember the borderline impossible loss to Bowling Green last year, but they've had clunkers in which they narrowly escaped against Miami(OH) (won by 5 as an 18 point favorite last year), and in 2019 (South Dakota State and Georgia Southern by a combined 10 points). There's been some unkind words shot back and forth between Kill and Fleck regarding some comments Fleck made when he took over Minnesota from Kill's right hand guy Tracy Claeys, but my guess is that PJ will just want to get out of there without any controversy. I'm high on the Gophers this year because they have former OC Kirk Ciarocca back, but despite being able to likely throw it at will, they'll probably run it 60 times. Kill's defense will probably fare better than most would expect, and now that we won't be subjected to Pavia at QB for the Aggies, maybe Gavin Frakes will actually score a couple TD's without turning it over 5 times. Minny only scored more than 37 once last year...the Gophers typically don't have the profile of a team that typically covers spreads this high, and we should expect Kill's teams to have enough fight to be competitive, especially in a game that he's going to have some extra juice for.
Click to expand...
Hey man gotta say, your game write-ups are a great read.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Bad week, 5-7 after the late losses by LSU and Utah. Very close calls on some of the losses, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. I still don't hate the plays, except maybe USF, and there were several plays I considered but ultimately ditched that turned out to be smart moves. It definitely could have been worse. Thanks to everyone for the comments. On to next week...........
Click to expand...
Good point about remembering the ones we almost played but didn’t and those plays turning out to be losers, as I tend to only focus on the winners I didn’t play, but more often than not, the losers I didn’t play end up saving me a lot more money. Always appreciate your threads, best of luck this week!
 
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