Week 1 Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Unfortunately, I got an extremely late start this year due to a number of reasons, some kid related, some work related. I passed on everything last night.

Posted record last year ended up 102-75 (.5762) which I was obviously pretty happy about, although I gave back quite a bit of cash during bowl season. As always, I love commiserating with all you guys throughout the year, and I hope everyone kills it as we embark on another wonderful 12 weeks of college football.

Going to start with one for tonight.


[FONT=HelveticaNeue, Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida Grande, sans-serif]1. Colorado State +9.5 v Colorado: When I first looked at this game, I noticed that Colorado has a lot more firepower returning than CSU, and I do actually like Buffs QB Sefo Liufau, who returns from last year. However, on closer inspection, the value clearly lies with the Rams. This series has been a real dogfight, with the favorite in the series failing to cover 4 years in a row. Although they took a step back last year after a fantastic year under Jim McIlwain in 2014, Colorado State still finished with a 7-5 record last year and went bowling for a third year in a row. This particular group of players has gotten used to success, something which is completely lost on the Buffs. They return their QB, Nick Stevens, who had a 21/12 ratio last year, their leading rusher and 4 starters from the offensive line. They have beaten Colorado outright as a dog 3 times since '09, and if they pull it off again this year, it shouldn't really surprise anyone. I never trust teams that are perennial loses as favorites away from their home field, and I should point out that CSU had a 500-350 yardage edge in the game last year which they ended up losing by a FG in overtime. 9.5 points with the Rams is a huge value in my opinion. [/FONT]
 
Your comb over pic with the mustache reminds me of my dad (in the eighties)! Always a must read! GL!
 
Right with you, mr knucks, with point and a half less than you got. Hope we have a winner. :shake2:

bull
 
As someone that follows both teams I couldn't agree more. CU will score points this year, they really have improved on offense but I'm still not sold on their defense and stopping the CSU run game.
 
Thanks everyone.

So far I've watched about 20 plays of this game, and Colorado State has not succeeded one iota in any aspect of a single play. It appears as though we are off to a bad start.
 
Two Utes said:
CU offense looks great, CSU can't do shit. Hopefully things turn for you in this one.
Click to expand...

It didn't, and it was pretty obvious that it wasn't going to from the word go. I've been betting on games for a LONG time, and I seriously can't remember a team turning in a worse 1st half than CSU turned in tonight. It didn't get much better in the second half either. Just atrocious by CSU.
 
2. @Houston +12 v Oklahoma: Both of these teams figure to be very good this year. Oklahoma returns a lot of firepower, especially in their run game, but the offensive line consists of mostly underclassmen, and they'll need some new faces to step up in the pass game to support Baker Mayfield. Defensively their two top playmakers, Eric Striker and Zach Sanchez are both gone, so I think they are going to be a bit lost at sea in their first foray without those two. Houston returns do everything QB Greg Ward and 5 of their top 6 receivers, so I think they'll be effective on offense, and just like everyone else, I am sold on Tom Herman. This game means absolutely everything to Houston as far as their prospects for a program transforming season, and they are dying to make a splash on the big stage to follow up their dominant victory over Florida State in the bowl game last year. They are also 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13. A team the caliber of this Houston squad with a QB as good as Greg Ward is a must take getting 12 points. As long as their secondary can hang with OU's receivers, they can win this outright.
 
3. LSU -10.5 @ Wisconsin: This game is at Lambeau Field, but it's essentially a home game for Wisconsin, although I can tell you that I was at Wrigley on Thursday night and the neighborhood was absolutely crawling with LSU fans stopping off for a game on their way up there. I am looking for reasons to take these points, but i really can't find any. This is going to be a great atmosphere, and it's a dream come true for the Badgers to get a southern powerhouse to travel up north, but this game is about 4-5 years too late. The timing is terrible, as the Badgers are in a transitional period, and there's many questions about whether or not Chryst is the guy to keep the line moving. I just don't see how Wisconsin is going to score. Bart Houston is now the starter pretty much by default, but he had 2 years to beat out the noodle armed Joel Stave, and he couldn't do it. They lost top receiving threat Alex Erickson, and there isnt much left who can match up with LSU in the receiving corps. Their once vaunted running game was awful last year, ranking only 93rd(!!), and although Corey Clement appears to be healthy, the Badgers are very young on the OL, and their top lineman Dan Voltz is out with injury. They also lost their DC Dave Aranda, the architect of their excellent defenses of the past couple years to....LSU! Offensively, LSU has everyone back. Perhaps Wisconsin can stymie LSU's offense for awhile, but we've seen this movie before of the athletic SEC team matching up with a less skilled Big Ten squad.
 
4. @Texas A&M -3 v UCLA: I have never been a huge fan of new Aggie QB Trevor Knight's passing acumen, but I think A&M handles things here. These two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I think UCLA is going to have a hard time stopping A&M's athletes on offense. Sumlin's teams(especially offenses) usually come roaring out of the gate, and they will have a huge crowd screaming at the top of their lungs in this one. Also, UCLA is not used to the oppressively humid conditions in which they will find themselves in College Station. Offensively, Josh Rosen returns at QB for UCLA, but his supporting cast is significantly depleted from last year as his top 3 receivers and Paul Perkins at RB are off to greener pastures. To cover this, UCLA will probably have to win outright, and although I'm a fan of Jim Mora, I think that is asking a lot of this bunch.
 
5. Georgia -3 v North Carolina: First of all, UNC has the Illini on deck, so you know I could never be so lucky as to avoid having UNC roaring into Champaign in desperate need of a win. I am no fan of Georgia QB Grayson Lambert, who has been named the starter, but I am a fan of the Nick Chubb bludgeoning that is likely to be administered on a flimsy UNC front 7. This would be a monumental victory for Fedora and company, and I just don't see them pulling it off. Georgia looks to be one of the better defensive units in the country this year, and Kirby Smart, although new in the head job, should be able to fashion a solid game plan to neutralize the UNC offense. Georgia wins this one.
 
6. Alabama -12 v USC: Here's another game that's about 4-5 years too late. Can you imagine a Nick Saban v Pete Carrol matchup with some of those USC squads from several years ago? Unfortunately for the Trojans, Pete Carroll and Matt Leinart aren't walking through that door. Hell, USC fans would probably settle for John David Booty. USC has some premium talent, but that talent typically shows up when they line up against a patsy. Actually over the past couple years, even that hasn't been good enough because USC has lost games within the last few years to several teams as double digit underdogs and got punked 2 years in a row by Big Ten also rans in bowl games. How do you think they are going to do when they are faced with a collection of monsters like Alabama, who have significantly more talent than them at this juncture? What's going to make up the difference, the tactical stylings of Clay Helton? Worst yet, Alabama is ready to make a statement because they've not had a chance to lay a beat down on the Trojans since the mid 80's. Also, don't forget that Lane Kiffin is a petulant sort, and he would certainly like to give the finger to USC after they canned his ass on the tarmac a couple years ago.
 
7. BYU -2.5 v Arizona: This game is in Glendale, so you would assume Arizona will have a big advantage, but there is a pretty big population of Mormons in that area, so BYU will have plenty of their well dressed fans in their full throated glory as well. One of my favorite discoveries of the offseason was that BYU QB Taysom Hill was granted another year and will be back in the fold after missing the season with an injury last year. Hill is an offensive force of nature and a ton of fun to watch. I think the Wildcat defense will be completely overwhelmed by him, and the Cougs also return 66 lettermen and 17 starters from a good team last year. Arizona should be ok on offense, but even in that case, Rich Rod has been waffling on who his QB will be. It actually looks like a bit of a rebuilding year for AZ. I think Hill will deliver the win here, although I am a bit concerned that a renewal of the Holy War waits on deck fro BYU.
 
8. NIU -9 @Wyoming: NIU stumbled to the finish line last year because of an unprecedented amount of injuries at the QB position. They ended up being down to their 5th string QB, and that guy was not a college quarterback by any stretch of the imagination. Starter Drew hare returns, he of the 14/4 ratio prior to going down for the year. Wyoming was atrocious on defense last year and figures to continue that trend as they are breaking in a bunch of new guys on that side of the ball. In fact, not a single guy returns to that defense who recorded a sack last year. Despite the altitude advantage, they have been terrible at home over the past 5 years, going 10-20 ATS since 2011. Over that same period, the Huskies are 21-8-1 ATS on the road. They are in their element here, and I think they'll take care of business.
 
9. Clemson -8 @ Auburn: I know this is a square play, perhaps as square as they come this week, but Auburn just looks like a mess to me. If they had a serviceable quarterback that would be one thing, but they don't, and they've been atrocious against the spread recently, failing to cover 9 of their last 10 at home. On the other hand, Clemson is set up to succeed. DeShaun Watson returns, along with RB Gallman and WR Mike Williams, who many believe could be better than Sammy Watkins if he can stay healthy. Defensively, they have tons of athletes to step into the roles left by graduating seniors. This Clemson team won't be intimidated by the venue, as they just got done playing Alabama to a standstill in the title game and are used to going to places like Tallahassee. This team has taken on all comers in recent years, you have to hand it to Dabo. I expect Clemson to win handily.
 
10 Florida State -4.5 v Ole Miss(Monday): Ole Miss returns QB Chad Kelly, and they have recruited well the past couple years, but they have just lost a ton of guys. Kelly is basically it on offense (no RB, top WRs gone, 3 new starters on the OL). It doesn't bode well that they will have to break in so many newbies against a team like Florida State. They also had a lot of attrition on defense, losing Robert Nkemdiche and returning only 5 on that side. They will have Dalvin Cook unleashed on them, who I think is going to win the Heisman Trophy.FSU's QB got injured but I think that might be a blessing in disguise because the new starter is much more dynamic and athletic. FSU returns guys all over the field, most notably all 11 on offense(once maguire comes back, but many feel that Deondre Francois should be the guy anyway). Just not enough support for Kelly groomed yet for to come up with a victory over this team.
 
Had a bunch of dogs that I just don't trust right now, so I laid off. Will spend a lot of time observing if possible this weekend. If I thought Missouri could score, they'd by #1 on the list.
 
Here is your biggest problem....of your 9 plays today, I am already on 6 of them.....which basically means your fukked

GL though.....love the work bro
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. @Houston +12 v Oklahoma: Both of these teams figure to be very good this year. Oklahoma returns a lot of firepower, especially in their run game, but the offensive line consists of mostly underclassmen, and they'll need some new faces to step up in the pass game to support Baker Mayfield. Defensively their two top playmakers, Eric Striker and Zach Sanchez are both gone, so I think they are going to be a bit lost at sea in their first foray without those two. Houston returns do everything QB Greg Ward and 5 of their top 6 receivers, so I think they'll be effective on offense, and just like everyone else, I am sold on Tom Herman. This game means absolutely everything to Houston as far as their prospects for a program transforming season, and they are dying to make a splash on the big stage to follow up their dominant victory over Florida State in the bowl game last year. They are also 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13. A team the caliber of this Houston squad with a QB as good as Greg Ward is a must take getting 12 points. As long as their secondary can hang with OU's receivers, they can win this outright.
Click to expand...

Biggest game in UH history given their desire to get into the Big 12.
 
Brass I do like Houston but haven't been so successful playing that huge game angle which I fear and MW mentioned above. Seems like maybe a great start from them though and am pulling for them...on under there, think the clock keeps running as they both try to keep each other off the field, and I've been dead wrong about everything the last couple days. GL buddy.
 
jimmymo said:
Here is your biggest problem....of your 9 plays today, I am already on 6 of them.....which basically means your fukked

GL though.....love the work bro
Click to expand...

This was the squarest, most public tailing card I think I've ever had. I hate even looking at it.
 
By the way, when I said Houston was 11-1-1 in their last 13 ATS, I neglected to add "as an underdog"
 
M.W. said:
Biggest game in UH history given their desire to get into the Big 12.
Click to expand...

Agreed. They might have just punched their ticket, much to the dismay of Texas, Baylor, TCU and TT. No doubt they belong, at least on the football side.
 
Br@ssknux said:
3. LSU -10.5 @ Wisconsin: This game is at Lambeau Field, but it's essentially a home game for Wisconsin, although I can tell you that I was at Wrigley on Thursday night and the neighborhood was absolutely crawling with LSU fans stopping off for a game on their way up there. I am looking for reasons to take these points, but i really can't find any. This is going to be a great atmosphere, and it's a dream come true for the Badgers to get a southern powerhouse to travel up north, but this game is about 4-5 years too late. The timing is terrible, as the Badgers are in a transitional period, and there's many questions about whether or not Chryst is the guy to keep the line moving. I just don't see how Wisconsin is going to score. Bart Houston is now the starter pretty much by default, but he had 2 years to beat out the noodle armed Joel Stave, and he couldn't do it. They lost top receiving threat Alex Erickson, and there isnt much left who can match up with LSU in the receiving corps. Their once vaunted running game was awful last year, ranking only 93rd(!!), and although Corey Clement appears to be healthy, the Badgers are very young on the OL, and their top lineman Dan Voltz is out with injury. They also lost their DC Dave Aranda, the architect of their excellent defenses of the past couple years to....LSU! Offensively, LSU has everyone back. Perhaps Wisconsin can stymie LSU's offense for awhile, but we've seen this movie before of the athletic SEC team matching up with a less skilled Big Ten squad.
Click to expand...

capped perfectly.....except for the coaching lol

jk

great thread as usual
 
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