Week 1 Schrute Bucks

You got yourself some great numbers there, Dwight. I canget EIU at 10 and Samford at 5. Any thoughts? Also, leaning SeLa -2 1/2 , mercer -9, and taking Butler and Davidson in lo 40s Already with you on Ball and N Iowa.
gl
 
Adding a props parlay based off the fact that I think the bottom dwellers this year are really really going to be bottom dwellers. Didn't wanna tie up money on all three of them all year long so here's a, probably dumb, parlay.

Kansas U1.5/Vandy U3.5/Wake U3.5 0.50-3.00
 
Schrute said:
Adding a props parlay based off the fact that I think the bottom dwellers this year are really really going to be bottom dwellers. Didn't wanna tie up money on all three of them all year long so here's a, probably dumb, parlay.

Kansas U1.5/Vandy U3.5/Wake U3.5 0.50-3.00
Click to expand...

Where can you parlay season wins? My local doesn't have that option.
 
Schrute said:
Adding a props parlay based off the fact that I think the bottom dwellers this year are really really going to be bottom dwellers. Didn't wanna tie up money on all three of them all year long so here's a, probably dumb, parlay.

Kansas U1.5/Vandy U3.5/Wake U3.5 0.50-3.00
Click to expand...

Weird hunch Wake gets you. Those ACC teams really like playing down to competition, and I can't imagine Wake doesn't improve some after Clawson inherited basically nothing going into last year.
 
lindetrain said:
Weird hunch Wake gets you. Those ACC teams really like playing down to competition, and I can't imagine Wake doesn't improve some after Clawson inherited basically nothing going into last year.
Click to expand...


Its not out of the realm of possibility that they start 4-0 to beat me. But they've had some offseason attrition and they're not a team who can suffer much of that
 
Lol mater dei down to plus 12.5
Someone screwed that opener
Nice job
 
i love that you always bet under on your own team. i took that as well. sadly not confident that watson will make it through 12 games
 
Schrute said:
Adding a props parlay based off the fact that I think the bottom dwellers this year are really really going to be bottom dwellers. Didn't wanna tie up money on all three of them all year long so here's a, probably dumb, parlay.

Kansas U1.5/Vandy U3.5/Wake U3.5 0.50-3.00
Click to expand...

You bite your tongue
 
haha

Adding:
Tulane +8 vs Duke 1.10-1.00
Was hoping to get 10 again but don't wanna miss 7 being a winner and it ain't going back up to 10
 
Schrute said:
haha

Adding:
Tulane +8 vs Duke 1.10-1.00
Was hoping to get 10 again but don't wanna miss 7 being a winner and it ain't going back up to 10
Click to expand...

Like it - Duke should pound the ball and not try and run this one up. If they get out of there with a FG win I wouldn't be surprised. Also wouldn't be surprised to see Tulane win this one outright. Talent is about the same, and Tulane is more experienced.
 
South Carolina -2 vs North Carolina 0.55-0.50
My PRs don't call for it but I simply think South Carolina is the better team with a coaching advantage given the long preparation period though he didn't show it in last years season opener. Also I think South Carolina has/had more defensive talent and therefore a better chance to improve with a coaching change.
 
FIU/UCF U47 0.55-0.50
Have had this one marked as an FIU play from a PR perspective and was hoping for 17. I missed it earlier and it never went back up. Now I've lost hope. However I don't think there's a way FIU covers and this thing hits 48 or more so I'm going under for a half unit here. Both teams played significantly slow in terms of pace last year and I have no reason to think it will improve. UCF defense will be worse but not to the level where they shouldn't be able to shut down a piss poor FIU offense. The FIU defense will be pretty damn good and should be able to get plenty of stops against a bad UCF offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see this one stay under 40 as long as defense/ST TDs are avoided. I'm thinking 27-13 ish type of game here but just not comfortable enough with totals to make it a full play
 
Just running through Thursday here:

SoCar/UNC - played SoCar above for half as a gut feel play
FIU/UCF - see above for thoughts
OkieLight I had listed as a lean and should have played it before it crossed 24 but no way I touch the side now. Looking to get involved with their team total over
Michigan/Utah - played Michigan at 6 a few weeks back
TCU/Minnesota - would have played MN at 17 but not touching the game now barring alcohol taking over on Thursday
Duke/Tulane - hit Tulane as it was coming down today. Had a chance at 10 and honestly when I went to lock it down a few weeks back it was at 9.5 so I waited but never saw 10 again
Ohio/Idaho - played Ohio at 2TDs better than current line at BOL openers
UTSA/Arizona - not sure that I get involved though Zona TT over will be tempting
Colorado/Hawaii - played Colorado at a bad number at BOL openers
WKY/Vandy - got WKY +17.5 at BOL opener
 
Dwight, good luck this season. Hopefully my boys grow up real quick. Could be an ugly year in Columbia.
 
Adding FCS Tonight:
SoDakSt ML at Kansas 0.50-0.82
Wofford +39.5 at Clemson 0.60-0.50
Villanova/UCONN U52.5 0.60-0.50
Wofford/Clemson O47 0.60-0.50
 
Schrute said:
FIU/UCF U47 0.55-0.50
Have had this one marked as an FIU play from a PR perspective and was hoping for 17. I missed it earlier and it never went back up. Now I've lost hope. However I don't think there's a way FIU covers and this thing hits 48 or more so I'm going under for a half unit here. Both teams played significantly slow in terms of pace last year and I have no reason to think it will improve. UCF defense will be worse but not to the level where they shouldn't be able to shut down a piss poor FIU offense. The FIU defense will be pretty damn good and should be able to get plenty of stops against a bad UCF offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see this one stay under 40 as long as defense/ST TDs are avoided. I'm thinking 27-13 ish type of game here but just not comfortable enough with totals to make it a full play
Click to expand...

Love this play. Well, I love it as much as a terrible totals player can love a play. No doubt the defenses will have the strong advantage on both sides of the field. FIU was exceedingly lucky last year with defensive scores, turnovers, etc. Assuming that evens out this year, they are going to struggle to score, but their defense looks pretty good. UCF definitely has the athletes to keep Turners pop gun offense out of the end zone.
 
GL this season buddy. always like reading your thread because there's a good chance you'll have action on a game, regardless of how obscure it might be. Love it...
 
How did I get a better number than you, Mr S.
Wisc/ala <53 here. On the other hand, I have Minny plus 14 1/2. GL
 
bull said:
How did I get a better number than you, Mr S.
Wisc/ala <53 here. On the other hand, I have Minny plus 14 1/2. GL
Click to expand...


I bet Wisky U after a syndicate hammered it. Almost all of my offshore accounts are "pending" at this time so I was waiting til the local posted totals and then it got hit by RAS I think
 
penny for your thoughts on the Wofford - Clemson game tonight? Agree on the Wofford / Over angle but wouldn't mind hearing some feedback from the FCS & Clemson guru.

Great grabs on those BOL mistakes btw, good luck bud!
 
jimmyshivers said:
penny for your thoughts on the Wofford - Clemson game tonight? Agree on the Wofford / Over angle but wouldn't mind hearing some feedback from the FCS & Clemson guru.

Great grabs on those BOL mistakes btw, good luck bud!
Click to expand...

Brief thoughts and I can go into more later

Wofford is improved over last year. Clemson doesn't do well stopping the triple option and will have a lot of new players. I think Wofford gets 14 easily and really think they likely get 17-21. Clemson's offense has tons of high 4-stars and 5-stars all over the field and a top 5 QB in the country. They will out-athlete the shit out of Wofford and should easily put up 42. Dabo won't run it up and will get the backups involved early. I think Clemson scores in the 40-50 range and Wofford in the 14-21 range. Dabo won't put up 55-60 unless Wofford's defense is just that bad and Clemson won't be able to hold that triple option to under 14. I think it sails over and will probably add more to that angle
 
just saw your mich and clem season win plays...like both of those, esp mich. harbaugh a wizard if he can get 9 wins out of that group. curious your thoughts on alcorn st +40.5, uconn +7, and san jose -2.5.
 
cubsker said:
just saw your mich and clem season win plays...like both of those, esp mich. harbaugh a wizard if he can get 9 wins out of that group. curious your thoughts on alcorn st +40.5, uconn +7, and san jose -2.5.
Click to expand...


Honestly like all 3 in this order

UCONN +7
SJSU -2.5
Alcorn

Look at GT vs FCS the past 3 years. Last year Wofford played them close but otherwise they've hung 60-70 which has me leery. Alcorn was a cash machine last year. I don't see UCONN +7 anymore unfortunately. About to hit SJSU for half and maybe more once I can look deeper. I wrote it off at 6.5
 
ok, i did get some +7 on uconn. alcorn to 41. i think they can score a little. maybe over the better play. my thinking was that gt may take a half to get things going with their new skill guys. that may be a dumb thought. glad you like sjsu as well. i don't see how a team that outgained opponents by over 80 ypg in the MWC that has 16 starters back can be on even ground with an FCS team that has 10 starters back. Plus the FCS team has to travel coast to coast.

GL tonight.
 
Dwight best of luck on the season, really appreciate your analytics thread as well.
 
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